Wednesday, March 21, 2018

2018 Formula One Preview

For the 68th time, the Formula One World Championship will be held and this year sees the calendar expand to 21 races with a few notable returning venues but the schedule does see the Malaysian Grand Prix and Sepang International Circuit left off after hosting Formula One for 19 years.

Australia hosts the season opener at Melbourne's Albert Park this Sunday. Last year, Ferrari won its first Australian Grand Prix in ten years with Sebastian Vettel taking the victory. After having Easter off, Bahrain has its night race on April 8th and Vettel will look to defend another race victory and possibly start the season with two consecutive victories. One week later the teams will be in China and Lewis Hamilton looks for his sixth victory at Shanghai and Mercedes goes for its fifth consecutive Chinese Grand Prix. Azerbaijan moves up the calendar and the race will be April 29th. Spain closes out the first quarter of the season and opens the European portion of the schedule on May 13th.

Monaco will be May 27th and Ferrari looks to win the famed race in successive seasons for the first time since Niki Lauda won the race in 1975 and 1976. Two weeks later, Formula One crosses the Atlantic for the Canadian Grand Prix on June 10th and Hamilton could match Michael Schumacher for most Canadian Grand Prix victories at seven. It would be Hamilton's fourth consecutive victory in Canada. France holds a Formula One race for the first time since 2008 and Circuit Paul Ricard is on the calendar for the first time since 1990. Ferrari has won the last three French Grands Prix with three different drivers. The June 24th race in France also kicks off a stretch of three consecutive weeks of races with Austrian Grand Prix taking place on July 1st and the British Grand Prix on July 8th. Hamilton is gunning to become the most successful driver in British Grand Prix. He is tied with Jim Clark and Alain Prost on five British Grand Prix victories and Hamilton has won four consecutive years at Silverstone.

The Hockenheimring marks the halfway point of the season on July 22nd. Hamilton and Fernando Alonso are tied for most German Grand Prix victories among active drivers on three. Hungary is the final race before the summer break on July 29th. Vettel has won two of the last three years in Hungary. Formula One returns from break on August 26th at Spa-Francorchamps for the Belgian Grand Prix. Mercedes has won the last three races in Belgium and Red Bull won three of the four races prior to that. Ferrari has not won at Spa-Francorchamps since 2009. Monza and the Italian Grand Prix follows one week later. Mercedes has won four consecutive years at Monza and Ferrari has not won its home race since 2010. Singapore will be the 15th race of the season on September 16th.

Sochi drops back to the end of the schedule and the Russian Grand Prix will be the final race of September on September 30th. Mercedes is an undefeated 4-0 in the Russian Grand Prix. The Japanese Grand Prix will be a week later at Suzuka. Hamilton and Vettel are tied on four Japanese Grand Prix victories, the most among active drivers. The United States Grand Prix will be October 21st. Hamilton has the most United States Grand Prix victories with six, including four consecutive and he has won five of six races held at Circuit of the Americas. Mexico is a week later on October 28th. Three different drivers have won the last three years at Mexico. Interlagos hosts the penultimate round on November 11th. Vettel is the only active driver with multiple Brazilian Grand Prix victories and last year was his third victory at Interlagos. The season concludes on November 25th at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Hamilton and Vettel each have three victories at the Yas Marina Circuit. Mercedes and Red Bull combine for seven of nine victories at Yas Marina. Ferrari has yet to win at Abu Dhabi.

Manufactures:
Mercedes AMG Petronas Motorsport
Lewis Hamilton: #44 Mercedes F1 W09 EQ Power+
What did he do in 2017: Hamilton won the World Drivers' Championship for the fourth time in his career and he picked up nine grand prix victories. He scored points in all 20 races and started on pole position 11 times.
What to expect in 2018: In four seasons Hamilton has won 40 races, three world championships and finished vice-champion. So expect ten victories and Hamilton to join Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael Schumacher as the only drivers with at least five world championships. He is bound to be within 20 victories of Schumacher for the all-time record at the end of 2018.

Valtteri Bottas: #77 Mercedes F1 W09 EQ Power+
What did he do in 2017: Bottas finished third in the World Drivers' Championship, a career best for him. He won three grands prix and stood on the podium 12 times. He won four pole positions.
What to expect in 2018: Bottas will win the few races where Hamilton has an off day. There is no reason why shouldn't at least match his championship finish from last year if not finish second to his teammate.

Scuderia Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel: #5 Ferrari SF71H
What did he do in 2017: Vettel finished second in the World Drivers' Championship and he won five races. Vettel had 13 podium finishes and won four pole positions.
What to expect in 2018: The Ferrari looked good in testing but I am not sure if it has made much ground on Mercedes. Vettel will have good days and be there when Mercedes is off. He will win races but I am not sure he will surpass Alain Prost for third all-time with 51 victories.

Kimi Räikkönen: #7 Ferrari SF71H
What did he do in 2017: Räikkönen finished fourth in the World Drivers' Championship and had seven podium finishes. He won pole position for the Monaco Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: The Finn's time has passed. It feels like Räikkönen is only at Ferrari because the Italian manufacture doesn't want to take a chance on any other driver and Räikkönen is ok with the role he has been given and letting Vettel lead the team. He will get a few podium finishes but not has many as last year and not really care about it.

Aston Martin Red Bull Racing
Daniel Ricciardo: #3 Red Bull RB14
What did he do in 2017: Ricciardo finished fifth in the World Drivers' Championship. He won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix from tenth on the grid. The Australian had in podium finishes but retired from three of the final four races.
What to expect in 2018: I think Red Bull has made more ground to Mercedes than Ferrari has and I think Red Bull is close to equal to Ferrari but the question is will the Tag Heuer-badged Renault power unit be reliable enough to get the Red Bull to the finish of races? Ricciardo has potential world championship talent and Mercedes could scoop up the Australian. If it weren't for unreliability, he would have beat Räikkönen in the championship last year. He is calmer than his teammate and it benefits Ricciardo. I think he could win as many races as Vettel does.

Max Verstappen: #33 Red Bull RB14
What did he do in 2017: Verstappen finished sixth in the World Drivers' Championship. He won two races and had four podium finishes but retired from seven races.
What to expect in 2018: The Dutchman's season didn't get off the ground until the middle of the summer and in he races he won he controlled. He is going to push his teammate but in year four in Formula One and basically year three with Red Bull, will Verstappen lose it if Ricciardo is faster than him on a regular basis? I think Verstappen will get a few victories but I think he will have one or two races where he cracks.

Sahara Force India F1 Team
Sergio Pérez: #11 Force India VJM11
What did he do in 2017: Pérez finished seventh in the World Drivers' Championship, scored 100 points and his best finish was fourth at the Spanish Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: Pérez has been consistent since joining Force India four years ago and while he has found his way onto the podium that final breakthrough seems to be out of reach. Force India's off-track issues will eventually bite this team and Pérez has a teammate that is at least equal to him and could surpass him this year. I expect him to take a step back in the championship.

Esteban Ocon: #34 Force India VJM11
What did he do in 2017: Ocon finished eighth in the World Drivers' Championship with his best finish being fifth in the Spanish Grand Prix and Mexican Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: If you think Pérez has been consistent, Ocon's entire single-seater career is impeccable. He had not retired from a single-seater race for over four years until he was collected in a first lap collision in Brazil. He scored points in 18 of 20 races. I think Ocon bests Pérez in the championship this year and he might be the only Force India driver to crack the top ten in the championship.

Williams Martini Racing
Lance Stroll: #18 Williams FW41
What did he do in 2017: Stroll finished 12th in the World Drivers' Championship and finished third in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: The training wheels are coming off for the Canadian and now, at 19 years old, he is now the elder statesman. I don't think he is ready for it. I don't think Williams is ready for it.  This team is going to tumble down the pecking order in 2018 and I expect there to be a fair amount of noise and not the good kind coming out of the Williams camp.

Sergey Sirotkin: #35 Williams FW41
What did he do in 2017: Sirotkin was Renault reserve driver. He participated in the Azerbaijan Formula Two round and finished tenth and fourth. He participated in the 24 Hours of Le Mans with SMP Racing in the LMP2 class. He finished 16th in class and 33rd overall.
What to expect in 2018: The Russian has made it to Formula One after four years of trying. The good news is Sirotkin set Williams' fastest lap in preseason testing. The bad news is Williams was the slowest of the teams but only a fraction behind Sauber. Williams will score points but not many and I would not be surprised if neither driver breaks double figures in points.

Renault Sport Formula One Team
Nico Hülkenberg: #27 Renault R.S. 18
What did he do in 2017: Hülkenberg finished tenth in the World Drivers' Championship and his best finish was sixth on four occasions.
What to expect in 2018: It hasn't happened yet for the German and he enters his eighth Formula One season still waiting for his first podium finish. The good news is Renault has made a leap forward and it could mix it up with the likes of Ferrari and Red Bull on a given day. Once again, reliability could be the greatest obstacle for this team. I think Hülkenberg has a great shot at a career best championship finish... but his teammate is better.

Carlos Sainz, Jr.: #55 Renault R.S. 18
What did he do in 2017: Sainz, Jr. finished ninth in the World Drivers' Championship and his best finish was fourth in the Singapore Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: Sainz, Jr. might be the darling of 2018. It seems he is everyone's sleeper and this year could be a gap year before he returns to Red Bull should Ricciardo exit the team. I would not be surprised if Sainz, Jr. got a podium finish or two this year. He should finish ahead of Hülkenberg in the championship and I might take a massive step further and say he could finish in the top six in the championship, meaning he finishes ahead of either a Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull driver.

Red Bull Toro Rosso Honda
Pierre Gasly: #10 Toro Rosso STR13
What did he do in 2017: Gasly finished second in the Super Formula championship and won two of seven starts. He finished seventh and fourth in the two Formula E races in Brooklyn. Gasly made five Formula One starts with his best finish being 12th in Brazil.
What to expect in 2018: The good news is the Honda engine appears to finally be able to not only stand on its own but run with the pack. Gasly was faster than his teammate and the Toro Rosso was only three-thousandths of a second off Haas for fifth fastest. Gasly will score points but he will be a driver consistently finishing seventh to tenth.

Brendon Hartley: #28 Toro Rosso STR13
What did he do in 2017: Hartley won the World Endurance Drivers' Championship. He won four races with Porsche and had eight podium finishes in nine races. He also won the Dubai 24 Hour and made four Formula One starts with his best finish being 13th in the United States.
What to expect in 2018: I already said Hartley will end the 2018 season as at least the fourth-most points among New Zealander drivers in Formula One history, meaning he will need at least six points. He should get that and like Gasly have a bunch of finishes between seventh and tenth.

Haas F1 Team
Romain Grosjean: #8 Haas VF-18
What did he do in 2017: Grosjean finished 13th in the World Drivers' Championship and his best finish was sixth in the Austrian Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: The Haas was a bit of a surprise during testing, as the team was fifth fastest. The team's best finish last year was seventh but I think Haas can at least match its all-time best finish of fifth, which Grosjean did in the team's second race at Bahrain. I think Haas finishes better than eighth in the Manufactures' Championship and Grosjean could crack the top ten in the championship.

Kevin Magnussen: #20 Haas VF-18
What did he do in 2017: Magnussen finished 14th in the World Drivers' Championship and his best finish was seventh in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
What to expect in 2018: The Dane was the quicker of the two Haas drivers but Magnussen is a puzzling driver. He has talent and potential but the last two seasons have been frustrating when you consider he finished second on debut in a less than stellar McLaren. He should score more points than he scored in the last two years combined.

McLaren F1 Team
Stoffel Vandoorne: #2 McLaren MCL33
What did he do in 2017: Vandoorne finished 16th in the World Drivers' Championship and his best finish was seventh at Singapore and Malaysia.
What to expect in 2018: I have no idea what to expect from McLaren. The last four years have scarred me. It never seems to get better but while last year was difficult, Vandoorne at least hung around. He scored points in three races but he finished 11th or 12th in six races last year. He should score more than 13 points this year but I can't give an exact number.

Fernando Alonso: #14 McLaren MCL33
What did he do in 2017: Alonso finished 15th in the World Drivers' Championship with his best finish sixth at Hungary and he scored fastest lap in that race. He also finished 24th in the Indianapolis 500 after an engine failure but led 27 laps on his way to earning Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year honors.
What to expect in 2018: How Alonso hasn't picked up smoking is beyond me. I already said Alonso would get a podium finish in the first nine races, which seems ambitious. He put McLaren second fastest in preseason testing but the McLaren broke down more than any other team in testing. It was the only team to have multiple breakdowns. The car could be quick but will it make it to the end of the race? You could tell me Alonso will finish sixth in the championship with five podium finishes and ten finishes in the top six or Alonso will have nine retirements and he will finish 13th in the championship with 38 points and I would believe both.

Alfa Romeo Sauber F1 Team
Marcus Ericsson: #9 Sauber C37
What did he do in 2017: Ericsson finished 20th in the World Drivers' Championship with his best finish being 11th twice.
What to expect in 2018: Ericsson has made 48 starts since he last scored points. The Sauber seems better now that it has an influx of Ferrari money. It is a distance away from standing on the podium let alone winning races but the team should have a few races where it ends up in the points. I think Ericsson gets a handful of points.

Charles Leclerc: #16 Sauber C37
What did he do in 2017; Leclerc won the Formula Two championship. He won seven races and had ten podium finish in 22 starts.
What to expect in 2018: Leclerc was a stud in junior series. Welcome to the big time. I think he will finish better than his teammate more times than not, score more points and Ericsson and I think there will be plenty of times where are impressed wit Leclerc and there will be races where he makes it out of Q1 and pushes for Q2 while his teammate is starting far down the grid.

The first practice of the Formula One season will be at 9:00 p.m. ET on Thursday March 22nd. Free practice two follows at 1:00 a.m. ET on Friday March 23rd. Later that night will be third practice at 11:00 p.m. ET. Qualifying is scheduled for 2:00 a.m. ET on Saturday March 24th. The Australian Grand Prix will take place at 1:10 a.m. ET on Sunday March 25th.