Wednesday, March 14, 2018

2018 MotoGP Preview

The 70th MotoGP season commences this weekend and a healthy grid of 24 riders and six manufactures start the eight-month championship battle. Ducati leads all manufactures with eight representatives on the grid with Honda fielding six bikes and Yamaha fielding four bikes. KTM, Suzuki and Aprilia will all field two bikes apiece. Five rookies join the MotoGP grid this season, all contested in Moto2 last season.

Qatar once again hosts the season opener. Yamaha has won the Qatar Grand Prix eight times, including the last three years. Honda and Ducati each have won three times at Losail but Ducati's most recent victory there was in 2009. A fortnight after the March 18th season opener, the series heads to Argentina. Honda and Yamaha have traded victories since the series first visited Autódromo Termas de Río Honda. Circuit of the Americas hosts the Grand Prix of the Americas on April 22nd. Marc Márquez is an undefeated 5-0 at the Austin track and Márquez has won all nine of his MotoGP starts in the United States of the America. He has won 11 consecutive starts in the United States dating back to his Moto2 career.

After the trip to the Americas, the European portion of the season begins on May 6th at Jerez for the Spanish Grand Prix. The French Grand Prix follows on May 20th at Le Mans. Spaniards have won six consecutive French Grands Prix and eight of the last nine. The last time a Frenchman won the French Grand Prix that counted toward the world championship was Pierre Monneret in 1954. June 3rd sees MotoGP return to Mugello. Last year, Andrea Dovizioso became the first Italian to win the Italian Grand Prix in the MotoGP class since Valentino Rossi in 2008. The series returns to Spain and Barcelona on June 20th. Dovizioso got Ducati's first victory at Barcelona in ten years in 2017.

The Dutch TT will take place on July 1st. Since 2012, the Dutch TT winner has alternated between a Honda rider winning in even years and Valentino Rossi winning in odd years. The German Grand Prix is the final race before the summer break on July 15th. Márquez has won five consecutive years at the Sachensenring and he trails only Giacomo Agostini for most top class victories in Germany. Agostini won the German Grand Prix eight times in the 500cc class. Honda has won eight consecutive years at the Sachensenring.

Brno is the exact middle point of the calendar with nine races preceding it and nine races following the August 5th round in the Czech Republic. Honda has won six of the last seven Brno races with four different riders. One week later the series will be at the Red Bull Ring. Ducati has won the last two years in Austria. The only Spaniard to win the Austrian Grand Prix was Àlex Crivillé in 1996. The British Grand Prix will be August 26th from Silverstone. Four different manufactures have won the last four Silverstone races. The final race of summer will be September 9th at Misano. Since the track returned to the scheduled in 2007, Yamaha has six victories, Honda has four victories and Ducati has one victory. Aragón closes out the European portion of the schedule on September 22nd.

Thailand hosts MotoGP for the first time on October 7th in what will be an extended Asian-Pacific swing for the series. The Buriram International Circuit is a 2.830-mile, 12-turn road course that has been open since 2014. The track has hosted World Superbike, Super GT, Asian Le Mans Series and World Touring Car Championship. The series will take a week off before three consecutive weeks of racing starting on October 21st at Motegi. Honda, Yamaha and Ducati have combined to win all 18 Japanese Grands Prix held in the 21st century. Phillip Island follows Japan on October 28th. Last year Márquez snapped a streak of five consecutive different winners of the Australian Grand Prix.

Malaysia hosts the penultimate round of the season on November 4th. Dovisiozo has won the last two years at Sepang and Honda won the four races prior to that with Dani Pedrosa responsible for three of those victories. The season concluded on November 18th at Circuit Ricardo Tormo in Valencia. Spaniards have won six consecutive years at Valencia and nine of the last 11 years after only one of the first eight Valencia races were won by a Spaniard.

Teams: 
Repsol Honda Team
Marc Márquez: #93 Honda RC213V 2018
What did he do in 2017: Won his fourth MotoGP world championship and won six races.
What to expect in 2018: He won his fourth title in five seasons in MotoGP last year. However, he was eighth fastest and seventh fastest in the preseason tests at Sepang and Qatar respectively. I think this could be a more challenging year and there could be more races where Márquez cannot break into the top four. He will still be in the hunt for the championship and he is still the man to beat but I think it will be more of a fight.

Dani Pedrosa: #26 Honda RC213V 2018
What did he do in 2017: Finished fourth in the championship and won two races.
What to expect in 2018: Pedrosa has proven to be the consistent veteran over the last few seasons but if I think Márquez is going to have more difficult days then I expect Pedrosa to be down the pecking order as well. This might be the year he doesn't get his one contracted victory a season. The good news for Pedrosa is he was second quickest at the Sepang test. He might not get a victory but I still think he will be on the podium five to seven times.

Movistar Yamaha MotoGP
Maverick Viñales: #25 Yamaha YZR-M1 2018
What did he do in 2017: Finished third in the championship and won three races
What to expect in 2018: The Catalan rider started his first season at Yamaha like gangbusters with three victories in the first five races and he led the championship through seven races. Then Viñales came back to earth and had four podium finishes in the final 13 races. He still finished third in the championship and won two pole positions despite the slump. I think he could drop a few positions in the championship but have a better year than 2017.

Valentino Rossi: #46 Yamaha YZR-M1 2018
What did he do in 2017: Finished fifth in the championship and won one race.
What to expect in 2018: The Italian is 39 years old and he was eighth in the Sepang test and second in the Qatar test. Last year was a gasp year when looking at Rossi's results. He had one podium finish in the final ten races and it felt like the beginning of the end. I hope it isn't true and I think he will win a race or two in 2018 but fight for a top five championship finish.

Ducati Team
Andrea Dovisiozo: #04 Ducati Desmosedici GP18
What did he do in 2017: Finished second in the championship and won six races.
What to expect in 2018: Dovizioso had the season he deserved for a career of hard work and under appreciation. He deserved to be in the title fight and get his moment in the sun. Though he fell short I think he will not slump in 2018. I don't think he will win six races but three or four victories and a top five championship finish should not be seen as a disappointed.

Jorge Lorenzo: #99 Ducati Desmosedici GP18
What did he do in 2017: Finished seventh in the championship and his best finish was second.
What to expect in 2018: Lorenzo was lost for all of 2018 and the preseason tells two stories about Lorenzo. He was fastest at the Sepang test but tenth in the Qatar test. He should do better than last year, contending for race victories and be pushing for a top five championship finish. He might even finish better than his teammate.

Monster Yamaha Tech 3
Johann Zarco: #5 Yamaha YZR-M1 2018
What did he do in 2017: Finished sixth in the championship, top rookie, and his best finish was second on two occasions.
What to expect in 2018: I think Zarco will win a race this season and challenge to break up the factory Yamaha line-up. He ended strong and nearly won the season finale at Valencia. He topped the Qatar test. I am not sure when the victory will come and I don't think it will come early like Viñales last year but I would say somewhere around the middle of the season.

Hafizh Syahrin: #55 Yamaha YZR-M1 2017
What did he do in 2017: Finished tenth in the Moto2 championship and his best finish was second.
What to expect in 2018: Syahrin replaces Jonas Folger, who is taking 2018 to recover from Gilbert's syndrome. Syahrin is 23 years old and turns 24 in May. I think he will be significantly off his teammate and off from where Folger was. He will be fighting to finish in the top ten.

Alma Pramac Racing
Danilo Petrucci: #9 Ducati Desmosedici GP18
What did he do in 2017: Finished eighth in the championship and his best finish was second on two occasions.
What to expect in 2018: Petrucci had a career-year in 2017 and came close to victory twice. I think he will have a few close days in 2018 but breaking through will be the hardest part. After a few victories have slipped through his fingers I think Petrucci holds on and wins one race in 2018 but I think he will be in the back half of the top ten in most races.

Jack Miller: #43 Ducati Desmosedici GP17
What did he do in 2017: Finished 11th in the championship and his best finish was sixth.
What to expect in 2018: Miller has moved to a customer Ducati after three years on a customer Honda. I think he could finish in the top ten of the championship and might even finish ahead of Petrucci. Miller was fifth in the Sepang test, six spots ahead of Petrucci, and was two spots behind the Italian in 11th at Qatar.

Team Suzuki Ecstar
Andrea Iannone: #29 Suzuki GSX-RR
What did he do in 2017: Finished 13th in the championship and his best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: Iannone's first year at Suzuki saw sporadic results for the Italian and he once again he had a lot of accidents. That is going to set him back and I am not sure he will do enough for Suzuki to retain Iannone.

Álex Rins: #42 Suzuki GSX-RR
What did he do in 2017: Finished 16th in the championship, missed five races and his best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: Rins looked good in testing, sixth at Sepang and eighth at Qatar, and I think he will lead the Suzuki team in the championship. His rookie season was broken up due to an injury but in 13 starts he had six top ten finishes and seven finishes in the points. I think Rins will finish on the cusps of the top ten in the championship and I think he could get at least one top five finish.

EG 0,0 Marc VDS
Thomas Lüthi: #12 Honda RC213V 2018
What did he do in 2017: Finished second in the Moto2 championship for the second consecutive season, won two races and had ten podium finishes before missing the final two rounds.
What to expect in 2018: The Swiss rider will make his MotoGP debut at 31 years old. He has been really consistent in Moto2 for seven seasons but I think he is going to be a fish out of water and points will be hard to come by for Lüthi.

Franco Morbidelli: #21 Honda RC213V 2018
What did he do in 2017: Won the Moto2 championship with eight victories.
What to expect in 2018: The Italian improved from the Sepang test to the Qatar test and I think this entire season will be one race building on another. It would not be surprising if he ends the season with a string of top ten finishes but starts the season with a handful of finishes outside the top ten.

LCR Honda
Cal Crutchlow: #35 Honda RC213V 2018
What did he do in 2017: Finished ninth in the championship and his best finish was third.
What to expect in 2018: He finished third in the second race of the season and could not repeat that performance. The Briton was quick in both test sessions, third at Sepang and fourth at Qatar. I think he improves on last season, gets four or five podium finishes and contends for a victory or two.

Takaaki Nakagami: #30 Honda RC213V 2017
What did he do in 2017: Finished seventh in the Moto2 championship and won one race.
What to expect in 2018: Nakagami had a few good years in Moto2 but I think he will be battling to be the second best rookie in 2018. He will be constantly fighting for points but should come out with something more times than not.

Ángel Nieto Team
Álvaro Bautista: #19 Ducati Desmosedici GP17
What did he do in 2017: Finished 12th in the championship and his best finish was fourth.
What to expect in 2018: Last year's Ducati looked good and I think it could help Bautista as he tries to break into the top ten. However, the Hondas look really strong and I think Bautista could finish 12th in the championship for a third consecutive year.

Karel Abraham: #17 Ducati Desmosedici GP16
What did he do in 2017: Finished 20th in the championship and his best finish was seventh.
What to expect in 2018: The Czech rider is on a two-year-old bike. He held his own last year and didn't fall off the bike that often. I don't think he will score many points and might score less than 32 points, his total from 2017.

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Pol Espargaró: #44 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2017: Finished 17th in the championship and his best finish was ninth on two occasions.
What to expect in 2018: The KTM doesn't appear to have made a step forward and seemed stagnant in testing from where it was in 2017. I think it is going to be another difficult year and those top ten finishes might be harder to get.

Bradley Smith: #38 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2017: Finished 21st in the championship, missed one race and his best finish was ninth.
What to expect in 2018: Similar to his teammate.

Reale Avintia Racing
Esteve Rabat: #53 Ducati Desmosedici GP17
What did he do in 2017: Finished 19th in the championship and his best finish was tenth.
What to expect in 2018: Rabat was 12th at the Sepang test but 19th at the Qatar test. He consistently finished in the points on a customer Honda last year but I don't think he will have the same kind of success on the Ducati.

Xavier Siméon: #10 Ducati Desmosedici GP17
What did he do in 2017: Finished 23rd in the Moto2 championship, missed three races and his best finish was seventh.
What to expect in 2018: Not many points and a lot of battles with Lüthi to see who will not be the worst rookie in a race.

Aprilia Racing Team Gresini
Aleix Espargaró: #41 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2017: Finished 15th in the championship, missed a race and his best finish was sixth on two occasions.
What to expect in 2018: When Espargaró had a good day in 2017, it was a really good day. When he was off, he was way off. He had eight points finishes and eight retirements. I think Espargaro should finish more races but he might only match his total of points finishes from 2017 or pick up one or two more.

Scott Redding: #45 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2017: Finished 14th in the championship and his best finish was seventh on two occasions.
What to expect in 2018: Redding moves over Pramac Racing and he was off in testing. He was nine positions behind his teammate at the Sepang test with Redding 23rd and at Qatar he was 22nd but Espargaró was 15th. This could be a long year.

First practice of the MotoGP season takes place at 7:45 a.m. ET on Friday March 16th with second practice scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET. On Saturday, MotoGP's third practice will be at 7:35 a.m. ET with fourth practice at 11:40 a.m. ET. Qualifying begins at 12:20 p.m. ET with the Q2 session to determine pole position at 12:45 p.m. ET. The Qatar Grand Prix will take place at noon ET on Sunday March 18th.