Friday, August 9, 2019

Let's Look at The League - August 2019

We are in the middle of IndyCar's final summer break and when the series is back in action we will be starting the final quarter of the season. Only five weeks cover the final four races of the season. It is going to flyby fast.

Before we get to the final quarter of the season and get into the serious nature of the championship battle, let's take another look at the fun and fictional sub-championship that could exist in the NTT IndyCar Series.

In March, we introduced the league concept to IndyCar and in June, we went over how the league looked at the halfway point of the season. This third look at the league is at what would be an important time because Pocono would be the final week of the regular season for the top division and the penultimate week for the second division.

We are going to look at this each conference at a time, go over the playoff picture and relegation picture for each, give the week-by-week results and then we will do the same for the second division.

Conference A
#2 Penske 10-3 - y
#9 Ganassi 9-4 - y
#28 Andretti 8-5 - x
#30 RLLR 7-6
#20 ECR 6-7
#18 Coyne 6-7 - e
#15 RLLR 5-8 - e
#26 Andretti 1-12 - r

x - Clinched. y - Clinched Seed. e - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. r - Relegated.

Final Week:
#9 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti
#2 Penske vs. #26 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #20 ECR
#15 RLLR vs. #30 RLLR

The battle will be for the final playoff spot but lets go over the other seeds first.

Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon split their head-to-head match ups, meaning if Dixon wins and Newgarden loses at Pocono, they would have the same record but after head-to-head, the second tiebreaker is overall race victory total and Newgarden has that advantage with four victories to Dixon's two.

Dixon won the first meeting against Ryan Hunter-Reay and they face off this weekend. If Hunter-Reay wins, both drivers are 9-5 but Dixon has two race victories, something Hunter-Reay cannot match, therefore, Dixon is the two-seed.

Hunter-Reay is not safe in the three-seed. He could be tied with Takuma Sato on 8-6 records. The drivers split their head-to-head meetings and Sato has won a race, meaning if Hunter-Reay wins Pocono they would each have a victory, both have finished third on two occasions and Hunter-Reay would get the third-seed with his next best finish being fourth to Sato's seventh.

Sato is not safe, especially if Ed Carpenter finishes ahead of Sébastien Bourdais at Pocono. Regardless of what Bourdais does at Pocono, Sato owns the tiebreaker. Sato and Bourdais split the head-to-head but even if Bourdais wins at Pocono, Sato has finished third on two occasions and Bourdais has only finished third on one occasion.

However, the #20 ECR entry is 2-0 against the #30 RLLR entry. Ed Jones bested Sato at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and Carpenter bested Sato at Iowa, by one position 19th to 20th. If Sato loses to his teammate Graham Rahal and Carpenter bests Bourdais, the #20 ECR entry gets the fourth spot.

Sadly, the relegation battle was decided at Toronto. Zach Veach didn't get a head-to-head victory until Iowa and sadly, he is playing for bragging rights at Pocono.

Results:
Week 1:
#9 Ganassi vs. #26 Andretti (2 to 14)
#28 Andretti vs. #30 RLLR (23 to 19)
#2 Penske vs. #20 Carpenter (1 to 21)
#18 Coyne vs. #15 RLLR (12 to 24)


Week 2:
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (7 to 13)
#28 Andretti vs. #20 ECR (3 to 14)
#2 Penske vs. #15 Rahal (2 to 4)
#18 Coyne vs. #26 Andretti (5 to 22)

Week 3:
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (2 to 19)
#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR (8 to 23)
#2 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (4 to 3)
#30 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 12)

Week 4:
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (3 to 4)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (5 to 11)
#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 8)
#20 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (16 to 17)

Week 5:
#9 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (2 to 11)
#28 Andretti vs. #2 Penske (17 to 15)
#15 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (9 to 12)
#20 ECR vs. #30 RLLR (6 to 14)

Week 6:
#9 Ganassi vs. #2 Penske (17 to 4)
#28 Andretti vs. #26 Andretti (8 to 29)
#18 Coyne vs. #30 RLLR (30 to 3)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (27 to 6)

Week 7:
#9 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti (22 to 5)
#2 Penske vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 8)
#18 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (11 to 20)
#15 RLLR vs. #30 RLLR (7 to 3)

Week 8:
#9 Ganassi vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 8)
#28 Andretti vs. #30 RLLR (4 to 13)
#2 Penske vs. #20 ECR (19 to 14)
#18 Coyne vs. #15 RLLR (9 to 7)

Week 9:
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (17 to 15)
#28 Andretti vs. #20 ECR (5 to 13)
#2 Penske vs. #15 Rahal (1 to 3)
#18 Coyne vs. #26 Andretti (8 to 20)

Week 10:
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (5 to 22)
#28 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR (11 to 4)
#2 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (3 to 12)
#30 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (10 to 18)

Week 11:
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (2 to 9)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (16 to 8)
#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (4 to 22)
#20 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (12 to 13)

Week 12:
#9 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (2 to 9)
#28 Andretti vs. #2 Penske (17 to 1)
#15 RLLR vs. #26 Andretti (8 to 7)
#20 ECR vs. #30 RLLR (19 to 20)

Week 13:
#9 Ganassi vs. #2 Penske (1 to 14)
#28 Andretti vs. #26 Andretti (3 to 21)
#18 Coyne vs. #30 RLLR (11 to 19)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (9 to 13)

Conference B
#27 Andretti 12-1 - y
#22 Penske 9-4 - x
#12 Penske 9-4 - x
#5 SPM 7-6 - y
#10 Ganassi 5-8 - e
#7 SPM 4-9 - e
#21 ECR 3-10 - z
#98 Andretti 3-10 - z

- Clinched. - Clinched Seed. e - Eliminated from Playoff contention, safe from relegation. z - Eliminated from Playoff contention, not safe from relegation.

Final Week:
Week 14
#27 Andretti vs. #12 Penske
#22 Penske vs. #21 ECR
#7 SPM vs. #5 SPM
#98 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi

This is sealed up but the relegation battle is intriguing. Rossi has locked up the top spot. His only loss was the Indianapolis 500, where he finished second overall to the guy who beat him head-to-head, Simon Pagenaud. 

Simon Pagenaud owns the tiebreaker 2-0 over Will Power with his Grand Prix of Indianapolis victory and he won the head-to-head match up at Iowa. All Pagenaud has to do is defeat Spencer Pigot and he will be the two-seed in conference B regardless of what Power does. If Pagenaud does not defeat Pigot and Power defeats Rossi then Power will be the two-seed and Pagenaud will drop to the third seed. 

James Hinchcliffe is the fourth seed. He can't move up to third, he can't get knocked down to fifth. Hinchcliffe will face Newgarden in the first round of the playoffs. 

All focus should be on the relegation battle. Marco Andretti won the first two weeks, he lost the next ten and he staved off relegation at Mid-Ohio when he defeated Hinchcliffe. The bad news is Pigot is 2-0 against Andretti head-to-head. Andretti has to defeat Felix Rosenqvist at Pocono and Andretti needs Simon Pagenaud defeat Spencer Pigot. That is the only way Andretti can stay up.

There is a chance Andretti could be 4-10, Pigot could be 4-10 and Marcus Ericsson could be 4-10. In that case, it would come down to a head-to-head amongst the three. Andretti split with Ericsson and lost both times to Pigot, so he would be 1-3, Pigot was 2-0 against Andretti and split with Ericsson so he would be 3-1 and Ericsson would be 1-1 against Andretti and 1-1 against Pigot so he would be 2-2 and Andretti would be relegated.

Results:
Week 1:
#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 11)
#12 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (3 to 4)
#22 Penske vs. #5 SPM (6 to 7)
#7 SPM vs. #98 Andretti (13 to 20)

Week 2:
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (9 to 23)
#12 Penske vs. #5 SPM (24 to 16)
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (19 to 6)
#7 SPM vs. #21 ECR (11 to 15)

Week 3:
#27 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (5 to 6)
#12 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (11 to 14)
#22 Penske vs. #7 SPM (9 to 7)
#10 Ganassi vs. #21 ECR (10 to 17)

Week 4:
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (1 to 13)
#12 Penske vs. #7 SPM (7 to 20)
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (6 to 10)
#5 SPM vs. #21 ECR (9 to 18)

Week 5:
#27 Andretti vs. #7 SPM (22 to 24)
#12 Penske vs. #22 Penske (7 to 1)
#98 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 13)
#5 SPM vs. #10 CGR (8 to 16)

Week 6:
#27 Andretti vs. #22 Penske (2 to 1)
#12 Penske vs. #21 ECR (5 to 14)
#7 SPM vs. #10 CGR (13 to 28)
#98 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (26 to 11)

Week 7:
#27 Andretti vs. #12 Penske (2 to 18)
#22 Penske vs. #21 ECR (6 to 10)
#7 SPM vs. #5 SPM (9 to 13)
#98 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (4 to 16)

Week 8:
#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 21)
#12 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (3 to 16)
#22 Penske vs. #5 SPM (17 to 18)
#7 SPM vs. #98 Andretti (2 to 6)

Week 9:
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (2 to 12)
#12 Penske vs. #5 SPM (9 to 19)
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (6 to 10)
#7 SPM vs. #21 ECR (7 to 14)

Week 10:
#27 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (1 to 7)
#12 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (2 to 23)
#22 Penske vs. #7 SPM (9 to 13)
#10 Ganassi vs. #21 ECR (6 to 14)

Week 11:
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (3 to 10)
#12 Penske vs. #7 SPM (18 to 20)
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (1 to 5)
#5 SPM vs. #21 ECR (6 to 15)

Week 12:
#27 Andretti vs. #7 SPM (6 to 11)
#12 Penske vs. #22 Penske (4 to 15)
#98 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 21)
#5 SPM vs. #10 CGR (3 to 14)

Week 13:
#27 Andretti vs. #22 Penske (5 to 6)
#12 Penske vs. #21 ECR (4 to 7)
#7 SPM vs. #10 CGR (23 to 2)
#98 Andretti vs. #5 SPM (15 to 22)

League Two
#19 Coyne 8-5
#88 HSR 8-5
#14 Foyt 7-6
#59 Carlin 7-6
#4 Foyt 5-8 - e
#23/#31 Carlin 4-9 - e

p - Promoted. e - Eliminated from Promotion

Week 14:
#14 Foyt vs. #23 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin

Week 15
#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt
#23 Carlin vs. #59 Carlin
#88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne

League Two does not have a playoff and the best two after a 15-week round robin will move up.

It is a four-horse race and it is up for any of those four. Colton Herta faces two entries still battling for the two promotion spots in the final two weeks, the unknown #59 Carlin at Pocono and Santino Ferrucci at Gateway. Both Ferrucci and Herta could be safe after Pocono. If both drivers win and Tony Kanaan does not beat Charlie Kimball at Pocono then it is over and the final week will be for pride. Ferrucci has Matheus Leist at Pocono.

Foyt is fortunate because it has Kanaan against Leist in the final week and if this league existed and if it mattered, hello manipulation. The team could make sure Kanaan gets promoted. Can you say start-and-park for Leist? The same is true for the two Carlin entries. That would be fun to watch.

What is the root for chaos scenario?

Here are the head-to-head records and these will be important:
#19 Coyne vs. #88 HSR (1-1, meet week 15)
#19 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt (3-0 #14 Foyt)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (3-0 #19 Coyne)
#88 HSR vs. #14 Foyt (2-1 HSR)
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin (2-0 #59 Carlin, meet week 14)
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (3-0 #14 Foyt)

Ferrucci wins at Pocono, Herta loses at Pocono, Kanaan and the #59 Carlin win at Pocono.

Ferrucci enters at 9-5, Herta at 8-6, Kanaan at 8-6 and the #59 Carlin at 8-6.

Herta defeats Ferrucci at Gateway, Kanaan wins at Gateway and the #59 Carlin wins at Gateway and all four drivers would be 9-6.

What would happen? The results against the #4 Foyt entry and the #23/#31 Carlin entry would be dropped and it would come down to a four-team table.

#14 Foyt 7-2
#88 HSR 4-5
#19 Coyne 4-5
#59 Carlin 3-6

The #14 Foyt would be promoted and then the #88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne tiebreaker would go to head-to-head, which would be in favor of the #88 HSR entry.

What about just a three-way tiebreaker?

Herta and Ferrucci both lose at Pocono and Kanaan and the #59 Carlin entry both win. All four entries would be 8-6 entering the final week.

Week 15 could be go-or-go-home for Ferrucci and Herta. Regardless, one of those two will be 9-6 if there is a four-way tie. If both the #14 Foyt and #59 Carlin win and make it a three-way tie at 9-6, the #14 Foyt would advance and the #19 Coyne would advance.

If Herta is the 9-6 driver in a three-way tie, the #14 Foyt advance with a record of 4-2 head-to-head and it would come down to what happens at Pocono. If the #59 Carlin wins at Pocono and the #59 Carlin entry is in a three-way tie with the #88 HSR entry and the #14 Foyt entry, the #59 Carlin would get the second promotion spot with a record of 3-3 head-to-head to the #88 HSR's head-to-head record of 2-4.

A lot of hypotheticals have been laid out and there are more but we do not have the time to explore. Let's just wait and see how it actually plays out.

Results:
Week 1:
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (15 to 16)
#23 Carlin vs. #19 Coyne (9 to 17)
#4 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (22 to 8)

Week 2:
#14 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (12 to 20)
#23 Carlin vs. #88 HSR (8 to 1)
#4 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (17 to 21)

Week 3:
#14 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (18 to 24)
#23 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (16 to 20)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (15 to 22)

Week 4:
#14 Foyt vs. #23 Carlin (19 to 12)
#4 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (15 to 21)
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin (14 to 23)

Week 5:
#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 20)
#23 Carlin vs. #59 Carlin (19 to 18)
#88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne (23 to 10)

Week 6:
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (9 to DNQ)
#23 Carlin vs. #19 Coyne (7 to 25)
#4 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (15 to 33)

Week 7:
#14 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (15 to 19)
#23 Carlin vs. #88 HSR (14 to 12)
#4 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (21 to 17)

Week 8:
#14 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (22 to 12)
#23 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (11 to 20)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (10 to 15)

Week 9:
#14 Foyt vs. #23 Carlin (16 to 21)
#4 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (22 to 4)
#88 HSR vs. #59 Carlin (18 to 11)

Week 10:
#14 Foyt vs. #4 Foyt (21 to 20)
#23 Carlin vs. #59 Carlin (17 to 16)
#88 HSR vs. #19 Coyne (8 to 19)

Week 11:
#14 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (17 to 14)
#23 Carlin vs. #19 Coyne (21 to 11)
#4 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (19 to 7)

Week 12:
#14 Foyt vs. #19 Coyne (10 to 12)
#23 Carlin vs. #88 HSR (22 to 18)
#4 Foyt vs. #59 Carlin (16 to 13)

Week 13:
#14 Foyt vs. #88 HSR (8 to 20) 
#23 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (17 to 18)
#19 Coyne vs. #59 Carlin (12 to 16)