January might feel early for IndyCar previews, but in 45 days the season will begin at St. Petersburg. It is time to look ahead. Teams have started testing in preparation for the new season, a 17-race, 14-track trek that will last 196 days. The schedule has been mixed up a little, and there could be a few returning tracks.
The first team preview will look at Andretti Autosport. It has been a few rough seasons for the past champions. It won a few races, but all those victories came with Colton Herta. A few more races were lost. Alexander Rossi had difficulty getting results again and was clearly second in the team. Ryan Hunter-Reay has left the team after 11 seasons. James Hinchcliffe is gone after a one-year return. For 2022, Andretti has drafted in two new drivers. One was a standout in 2021.
After Álex Palou won the championship last year, it had me thinking about how to tweak these previews. Palou went under the radar and was not considered a championship contender. He won the season opener and never looked back. Not every driver will be fighting for the championship, but there is a path for every driver. This year's set of previews will ask what each driver's possible championship looks like and then also ask what is a realistic season for that driver.
2021 Andretti Autosport Review
Wins: 3 (St. Petersburg, Laguna Seca, Long Beach)
Poles: 3 (St. Petersburg, Nashville, Laguna Seca)
Championship Finishes: 5th (Colton Herta), 10th (Alexander Rossi), 17th (Ryan Hunter-Reay), 20th (James Hinchcliffe), 35th (Marco Andretti)
2021 Drivers:
Colton Herta - #26 Gainbridge Honda
Herta's 2021 season began with him being caught in the opening lap accident at Barber Motorsports Park when Josef Newgarden spun exiting turn four. Herta had qualified fourth. Bouncing back at St. Petersburg, won pole position, and led 97 of 100 laps on his way to victory. A wheel bearing issue took him out at the first Texas race, but he was fifth in the Sunday race.
Indianapolis was not his best pair of races for Herta. He was 13th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and poor strategy wasted a second place starting position in the Indianapolis 500, with Herta finishing 16th. Though he was 14th in the first Belle Isle race, Herta ran an aggressive strategy in the second race, and was catching Newgarden before two cautions late. Herta did not have the car on restarts and dropped to fourth.
Herta was set for a podium finish at Road America and was elevated to second after Newgarden had his gearbox issues late. Re-fueling issues forced Herta to stop for a splash on the penultimate lap at Mid-Ohio, dropping him to 13th. He looked set to dominate another street race at Nashville, but the fractured nature of that race set Herta back. He proceeded to climb up the order and challenge Marcus Ericsson for the lead in the closing laps. With six laps to go, Herta got into the turn nine barrier and ended what should have been at least a runner-up finish.
He bounced back with a third at the second IMS road course race, but a driveshaft broke while leading at Gateway and effectively ended Herta's championship hopes. He was eighth at Portland, but the season ended on a high note. Returning to Laguna Seca, Herta was back on pole position and led 91 of 95 laps. At Long Beach, Herta was fastest during practice, but a qualifying mistake staying on the primary tire meant he did not advance from round one. Starting 14th, Herta shot out the order and took the lead on lap 34. He led 43 of 85 laps and closed the season with his second consecutive victory.
Numbers to Remember:
5: Podium finishes in 2021, tied for third most.
5: Finishes outside the top fifteen in 2021.
14.6: Average finish in 19 oval starts.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Herta wins the three races he won in 2021, but he also wins at Nashville and his driveshaft doesn't break while leading at Gateway, giving him another victory, and on top of all that he doesn't having the other mechanical issues nor gets caught in an opening lap accident to start the season.
The team nails every pit stop and doesn't put him on the fence in terms of fuel mileage, preventing him from running at 100% and possibly costing a handful of positions. There are no qualifying hiccups and Herta is always starting at the front of the field. On restarts, Herta is going forward and not backward.
A respectable Indianapolis 500 result would also help. Anywhere in the top eight would go a long way and a few extra bonus points from qualifying would help. Oval results improving across the board would be a major development and make him a more dangerous terms in terms of running away with the championship. A career year on ovals would be make Herta very difficult to beat in the championship and a victory would be significant.
Overall, at least four victories, top five finishes in at least half the races and top ten finishes at least 15 times would make him difficult to beat for the title.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Herta's championship season is realistic. The speed is there, and he is a proven race winner. Not only are these victories but shear beatdowns for Herta. He doesn't luck into his victories. He goes out and flexes his muscle from the drop of the green flag.
There were a few races that went against Herta in 2020 that likely do not happen again. He was going to pass Newgarden in the closing laps in the second Belle Isle race before Jimmie Johnson spun. If Nashville decreased the insanity by just 15%, he likely wins that race and if the driveshaft holds up at Gateway, he would already have an oval victory to his name.
Even if those three races are flipped, Herta would still have had a few poor results, but six victories in a year where nobody else truly dominated would have at least put Herta in the conversation for the title in the finale. He might have still fallen short, but he would have been right there.
If Herta and team cleans things up, the best possible outcome is within reach.
Alexander Rossi - #27 NAPA Auto Parts/AutoNation Honda
After finishing 2020 in generally good form, Rossi could not get into a rhythm in 2021.
Poor tire strategy knocked him from a possible podium finish to ninth at Barber. Contact with Graham Rahal ended a possible top five finish at St. Petersburg. He was eighth in the first Texas race and was caught in the start accident in the second race. May started with a seventh in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but an emergency pit stop and stalling within the first 100 miles of the Indianapolis 500 put Rossi in a hole he couldn't get out. Trapped a lap down and with almost no attrition, Rossi was 29th but only two laps down!
Through the first nine races, Rossi alternated top ten finish with non-top ten finish. His first top five was fifth Mid-Ohio, but a slow pit stop kept him from finishing on the podium. Patricio O'Ward spun Rossi at Nashville, ending a possible top five finish. He was fourth in the second IMS road course race, and then brushed the wall after getting in the marbles fighting for a podium finish at Gateway.
Overcoming a blow start at Portland, Rossi was second. He qualified second at Laguna Seca, but a nudge after attempting a pass for the lead on Herta in five spun Rossi off course and he finished 25th. He ended the season with a sixth in Long Beach.
Numbers to Remember:
2: Laps led in 2021.
37: Starts since his most recent IndyCar victory.
12.3: Rossi's average finish in 2021, the worst of his IndyCar career and his second consecutive season resetting his worst average finish in a season.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Rossi combines the best aspects of his 2018 and 2019 seasons.
He dominates Long Beach, he has a great Indianapolis 500 and this time holds on in the closing laps to get his second victory, and puts together dominant days at Road America and Mid-Ohio. On days when victory is not possible, Rossi is able to maximize points and finish ahead of his main championship rivals, regularly finishing on the podium.
Balance is achieved on both tire compounds and there are no instances of Rossi losing five spots in one stint mid-race because of tire compound choice. His qualifying results are impeccable. The minor incidents that lead to catastrophic results do not occur. Cautions go his way. Rossi is the leader in the team. He is constantly coming out on top in every session, from the first practice session to the race.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
After two winless seasons, it feels like a win is due to Rossi, but he didn't come that close in 2021. In 2020, there were at least three races where it felt like Rossi was there and just the wrong thing happened each time. We didn't see any of those races in 2021. Perhaps Portland falls in that category, but that was such a weird comeback where Rossi fell back due to cutting the chicane at the start and then he had to follow Álex Palou to the front.
If the likes of Rinus VeeKay can win in IndyCar and Marcus Ericsson can win twice, Rossi can get at least one victory. He can also be on the podium more than once.
Rossi's largest hurdle is his own teammate, Herta, and there could possibly be a second stablemate giving him serious competition. For two seasons, Rossi has not even been the best of his own quartet. If he is third and looks up to see Herta is first, he could have the most infuriating career season in a career.
Andretti Autosport could have multiple championship contenders, something the team really hasn't had since the days of Tony Kanaan, Dan Wheldon and Dario Franchitti. Multiple victories and six to eight podium finishes are possible for Rossi, but two or three poor results could plague his season and keep him outside the top five in the championship.
Romain Grosjean - #28 DHL Honda
The anticipated IndyCar debut of Grosjean saw him make it out of round one in his first IndyCar qualifying session, and he finished tenth on debut at Barber for Dale Coyne Racing. Another good day in 13th followed at St. Petersburg.
On Grosjean's first visit to Indianapolis Motor Speedway, he won pole position for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and led majority of the race. Difficulty with traffic cost Grosjean the lead, but he was still second in his third career start. He would come back to Earth at Belle Isle, hitting the barrier in race one and having a brake fire in race two. But good days would continue with a fifth at Road America and seventh at Mid-Ohio.
A penalty for contact took away a possible top ten finish at Nashville and he was second again on the IMS road course. With confidence, Grosjean took his first crack at oval, starting 15th at Gateway. Grosjean improved with each lap and was making passes. Cold tires were his downfall and he lost significant time after each pit stop. He could have finished in the top ten but was caught a lap down when Rossi got into the barrier and finished 14th.
He was in the opening lap accident at Portland but continued with a damaged race car. All he could manage was 22nd. Arguably Grosjean's best race was Laguna Seca, moving from 13th to third with many impressive passes and showing great pace on each tire compound. Grosjean was in contention for another top ten finish at Long Beach but slapped the barrier and ended his race early.
Numbers to Remember:
20.923: Points per start in 2021.
334: Points based on Grosjean's point per start over 16 starts, good enough for tenth in the championship in 2021.
20: Average finish on street courses in 2021.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Grosjean takes his world-class talent and combined with a championship-caliber team sees him immediately imposed his will on IndyCar. Grosjean wins early in the season, is on the podium in three of the first five races and he completes all 500 miles at Indianapolis, finishing somewhere between ninth and 16th.
From there, Grosjean builds on his championship lead and picks up at least one victory in the next three races. He keeps his nose clean at the Iowa doubleheader and finishes the season with top five finishes in each of the last five races with at least one, if not two victories.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is not a crazy expectation for Grosjean. We just saw Palou win the title in his sophomore season after moving to a new team, and Grosjean is quite talented.
However, let's temper expectations and remember Andretti Autosport has been struggling the last few seasons. The team has brought Olivier Boisson over with Grosjean from Dale Coyne Racing. That engineering mind should lift the team.
Road and street course results should not be a concern. He should win once or twice. Ovals will be new. He looked good at moments last year at Gateway, but also showed exactly where he needs to improve, notably on cold tires. Gateway is one animal. Texas and Indianapolis are entirely different beasts. He is with one of the best teams, but he will still have to overcome his own insecurities. For a driver who long expressed trepidation over competing on ovals, the risks will alway linger in his mind and could hamper his output.
Grosjean should be a top ten championship driver and push for a top five spot.
Devlin DeFrancesco - #29 Andretti Steinbrenner Autosport Honda
After finishing runner-up in the 2020 Indy Pro 2000 championship, DeFrancesco moved up to Indy Lights in the Andretti Autosport program.
The season opened with a pair of third-place finishes. His season took a step back with an accident in the first St. Petersburg race, but he was fifth in race two. DeFrancesco would have only one top five finish in the next six races. He found his form over the summer with a pair of fifth-place finishes in Mid-Ohio, and a fourth and a fifth at the Gateway doubleheader.
Mechanical issues knocked him to 11th in the first Portland race and he would finish outside the top five in the next four races. He ended the season with an impressive drive in the wet to finish fourth, but he ended up sixth in the championship and third among the four Andretti Autosport cars.
Numbers to Remember:
2: Victories in 37 Road to Indy starts, both in Indy Pro 2000 (Gateway and the first New Jersey Motorsports Park race in 2020)
7: Years since DeFrancesco was selected as a Chip Ganassi Racing development driver.
17.4: James Hinchcliffe's average finish in this car last season.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Any championship season for DeFrancesco is built off the back of a strong Indianapolis 500. If it is still double points, a top three finish with possibly some qualifying bonus can notably boost a championship finish a few positions.
A DeFrancesco championship season also means he outperforms what history projects for him. He would have to be the best rookie in every race, stun his three senior teammates, and somehow win at least four or five times.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
James Hinchcliffe did not put up great numbers in this car last year and Hinchcliffe already had multiple IndyCar victories to his name. I am not sure how DeFrancesco exceeds those results significantly. He couldn't finish in the top five of an Indy Lights championship that had only nine drivers compete in every race. If you cannot win in Indy Lights, I cannot imagine you are going to be impressive in IndyCar.
DeFrancesco has done well in a few championships, but also been nonchalant in others. Matheus Leist won multiple Indy Lights races and wasn't much of a challenger in IndyCar. Leist was driving for A.J. Foyt Racing, but DeFrancesco is stepping into a car that was 20th in the championship, a.k.a Foyt territory.
DeFrancesco could get a top ten finish or two, but I don't think he will be close to his teammate this season. There is a high possibility we could see a race where Herta, Rossi and Grosjean are all in the top five and DeFrancesco is struggling to break into the top 20.
The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.
