While O'Ward led the way, his new teammate Felix Rosenqvist struggled in his first season with AMSP. Rosenqvist couldn't match his teammate's finishes, and a bad accident at Belle Isle sidelined the Swede for a few races. AMSP has kept this combination together with championship aspiration being obtainable, but it will require going a step further for all parties involved.
2021 Arrow McLaren SP Review
Wins: 2 (Texas, Belle Isle II)
Poles: 3 (Barber, Belle Isle I, August IMS road course race)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Patricio O'Ward), 21st (Felix Rosenqvist), 31st (Juan Pablo Montoya), 42nd (Kevin Magnussen)
Patricio O'Ward - #5 Arrow Chevrolet
After ending 2020 as one of the most promising young drivers, O'Ward started 2021 asserting himself as a driver of the present, taking pole position at Barber. He led the opening stint, but tire preservation was his weak point and he finished fourth. Tires were a struggle at St. Petersburg, and he finished 19th.
At Texas, O'Ward kept up his oval form and opened the weekend with a third-place finish. The next day, O'Ward ran at the front, and his aggressiveness paid off. He was able to take the lead in the final 25 laps and took his first career victory.
His love-hate relationship with the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course continued with a 15th-place finish, but on the oval, O'Ward was a contender. He spent most of the race at the front and led. He was never too far from the lead but didn't quite have enough and finished fourth. The results remained positive at Belle Isle. Another pole position came in race one, but the frenetic nature of that race dropped him to third. He was looking at a top five finish in race two before a pair of late cautions. O'Ward had the legs late and made up positions. He worked his way to second and overtook Josef Newgarden with three laps to go for the lead. O'Ward held on to become the first repeat winner of the season.
Top ten finishes followed at Road America and Mid-Ohio, but Nashville was a tough day and a pair of penalties limited O'Ward to 13th. He was on pole position again for the second IMS road course race, but again did not have the tire life when it mattered most and finished fifth.
A runner-up result at Gateway gave him the championship lead and fortunate chaos at the start of Portland moved O'Ward from the back of the top ten to the lead at the start. He looked set to control the championship. But cautions and pit strategy went against O'Ward, and he dropped to 14th as Álex Palou won the race. At Laguna Seca, O'Ward was fifth, but Palou was second. O'Ward still had a chance at Long Beach and qualified ahead of Palou. But opening lap contact in the hairpin from Ed Jones derailed his title hopes and subsequent gearbox issues were the final nail in the coffin
Numbers to Remember:
12.6: Average finish on street courses in 2021.
39.473: Top five finish percentage in 38 starts.
2013: The last season to feature driver not from one of the "Big Three" teams in the top three in the championship before O'Ward did it last season. Before O'Ward, it was Simon Pagenaud with Schmidt Peterson Hamilton Motorsports.
What does a championship season look like for him?
O'Ward picks up where he left off in 2021. He doesn't have many, if any, off days. He wins early and he wins often. He starts the season with a victory at St. Petersburg or at least a podium result. He wins at Texas again. This time he pulls out at least a top ten finish in Long Beach and then he gets another podium in Barber.
In May, he gets at least a pair of top five finishes, and he has a top five in Belle Isle. He wins at Road America, finishes in the top ten at Mid-Ohio and Toronto. He wins one of two Iowa races and is in the top five of the other race. Either way, he extends his championship lead before arriving to Nashville.
He gets a top ten in Nashville, a podium result at Gateway and then closes the season with top ten results in Portland and Laguna Seca because that is all he will need, and he will not have to be all that flashy.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
A championship is very realistic for O'Ward. He nearly had a hand firmly grasp on the trophy last season when Álex Palou slipped up and it looked like it was going to be O'Ward championship early at Portland. Then that race took a turn, O'Ward fell back, Palou moved forward, and the Mexican driver was chasing the Spaniard for the final two races.
O'Ward didn't make many mistakes in 2021. If anything, his worst results were out of his control. He hasn't been a liability on track at any point in his IndyCar career. That isn't going to change now. He could put together a five-victory, eight-podium, 13-top five finish season with every race ending in the top ten or him having only one result outside the top ten.
Arrow McLaren SP is up for the challenge and kept up with Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske for the entire 2021 season. O'Ward was ahead of the Penske quartet for practically the entire season until the final race went sideways.
There is room for improvement, notably tire management, but O'Ward can conquer that. If he does, he will be far more dangerous than he was last year, and everyone else will need to be close to perfect to take the title.
Felix Rosenqvist - #7 Arrow Chevrolet
After a good, but not great, sophomore season with Chip Ganassi Racing, Rosenqvist moved to AMSP looking to spark his IndyCar career in year three. Unfortunately, that spark set off an explosion in race one. Rosenqvist was caught in the opening lap incident and settled for 21st. Things were better, but not spectacular at St. Petersburg, finishing 12th.
He could have finished in the top five in the first Texas race if it was not for accident avoidance in the pit lane, swerving into the grass to avoid Marcus Ericsson, who only had three tires on the car. Rosenqvist was forced to settle for 13th. Coincidentally, Rosenqvist lost his right rear tire after it was not properly secured in the second Texas race and finished 16th.
Rosenqvist was 17th and 27th in the two Indianapolis races. He led the Indianapolis 500 late with his aggressive fuel-save strategy, but he was 11 laps short. In the Saturday Belle Isle race, Rosenqvist's throttle stuck in the middle of turn six and he accelerated straight into the tire barrier, knocking the concrete barrier backward. The race was red-flagged for a lengthy period. He was taken to hospital and released the next day. However, he would miss the Sunday race and the Road America race that followed.
Back in the car at Mid-Ohio, Rosenqvist was spun on the opening lap at the start and finished 23rd. His first good day came at Nashville, an eighth-place result, but he was in contention for a top five. It was not the start of a strong finish to 2021. He would finish sixth at Portland but was 13th or worse in the other four of five races to close out the year.
Numbers to Remember:
10: Top ten finishes in his rookie season in 2019.
7: Top ten finishes in the last two seasons (28 starts)
7: As in seventh best average finish among IndyCar regulars in 2019.
18: As in 18th best average finish among IndyCar regulars in 2021.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Rosenqvist, combined with his new engineer, the legendary Craig Hampson, knock it out of the box from the start. The #7 Arrow McLaren SP team takes victory off the crack of the bat in St. Petersburg, a solid top ten day follows in Texas, before another podium result in Long Beach and a top five in Barber.
He takes his second victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis before having his best Indianapolis 500 with at least a top ten finish. He is on the podium again in Belle Isle, making it a perfect three podium visits in three street course starts. He wins again at Road America and has a top five in Mid-Ohio before getting another top five in Toronto and managing two top ten finishes in Iowa.
In Nashville, his street course prowess continues, and he gets his fourth victory of the season. He keeps his nose clean and finishes in the top ten at Gateway. He puts himself in a solid position for the championship at Portland with another top five result, but he ends with a flourish, his fifth victory of the season at Laguna Seca.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
The last two seasons have been rough for Rosenqvist, and 2021 was hopefully rock-bottom for the Swede. It wasn't just being thoroughly defeated within the AMSP battle, but Rosenqvist was banged up and missed two races.
We have all seen enough from Rosenqvist to know he is better than 21st in the championship. A bounce back is more likely than him struggling again. Hampson taking the helm on the timing stand should help significantly, and Hampson alone could make Rosenqvist a championship contender. But I think this team will settle for top ten in the championship with at least one victory and being closer to O'Ward.
It is going to be hard to beat O'Ward. Even if Rosenqvist repeated his rookie season in 2019, I am not sure that would be enough for Rosenqvist to top his teammate. Rosenqvist must save his ride and show he can at least be an adequate second driver in the team, one that AMSP cannot replace. He can achieve that. It's not the most glamorous thing ensuring a number two role, but it can save his career from a tailspin.
A victory would go a long way, but if he is regularly in the top ten, challenging for a top ten championship position and shadowing O'Ward most of the year, Rosenqvist will earn a third season with this organization.
The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.
