We conclude the first half of the 2022 IndyCar Team Previews with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The consistent team saw more good results in 2021, but it was a year of changes. For the first time since 2014, RLLR did not win a race. It had a car start in the top five on only two occasions. After two successive seasons with both cars finishing in the top ten of the championship, only one made it in 2021.
Graham Rahal will be back after finishing seventh in the championship, but he will have new teammates in 2022, as Takuma Sato left the organization after four years and four victories together, including the RLLR's second Indianapolis 500 triumph. Minus one driver, but plus two entries, the three-car lineup will feature Christian Lundgaard in the #30 Honda with Jack Harvey moving over from Meyer Shank Racing to take the #45 Honda on a full-time basis.
2021 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Texas)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 5th (Portland and Laguna Seca)
Championship Finishes: 7th (Graham Rahal), 11th (Takuma Sato), 24th (Santino Ferrucci), 29th (Oliver Askew), 37th (Christian Lundgaard)
Graham Rahal - #15 United Rentals Honda
From 18th on the grid, Rahal worked his way to a seventh-place result in the opening race of the 2021 season at Barber Motorsports Park. A top five finish was lost after he and Alexander Rossi made contact at St. Petersburg, but Rahal bounced back with a fifth in the first Texas race and a third in the Sunday race with Rahal leading late. A fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis had Rahal fifth in the championship entering the Indianapolis 500.
Though he qualified in the middle of the field in 18th, Rahal had one fo the best cars of the race and worked his way into the leading pack as the race hit the halfway point. It looked like Rahal was going to be one of the drivers to beat down the stretch before his pit stop on lap 119. The stop was good, but the left rear tire was unsecured, and it came off the car while Rahal was on the access road. He spun across the track and into the turn two barrier, just as it appeared he would return to the race somewhere in the top five.
Devastating result behind him, Rahal was fifth in both Belle Isle races. He was 11th at Road America but he would finish in the top ten of the next three races, including a fifth in Nashville. The streak of good results ended early at Gateway after contacting with Ed Jones on lap five.
Just like after the Indianapolis 500, Rahal followed up a retirement with an impressive race. This time at Portland, where Rahal made the chicane at the opening lap and soon found himself in the lead. He led 36 laps on a two-stop strategy. A mid-race caution allowed the field to close in and increased the difficulty of the strategy paying off. Rahal had to save fuel down the stretch and lost many positions, dropping to tenth.
With each stint, Rahal was a little faster at Laguna Seca and he worked his way from 12th to fourth. He worked his way up to second at Long Beach through a combination of pit strategy and cautions, but just before his final stop, another caution came out and it shuffled Rahal from second to 20th. He worked his way up to 16th by the time the checkered flag fell.
Numbers to Remember:
26: Starts since the last time Rahal started and finished in the top five in a race (2020 Grand Prix of Indianapolis, fourth to second)
11: Consecutive seasons with at least one podium finish.
3: Seasons with 50 laps or more led in a 15-year IndyCar career.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Rahal hits it on his qualifying form and is constantly making it to the final round of qualifying on road courses. St. Petersburg starts with a top five results before picking up a victory in Texas. He is on the podium again at Long Beach and in the top five at Barber. He is again on the podium in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and he goes two-for-two on ovals with an Indianapolis 500 victory.
How does Rahal follow up that Indianapolis 500? By becoming the first driver to win the race after Indianapolis since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2000 with Rahal winning at Belle Isle for the third time in his career. He cools off with just a podium at Road America, but his red-hot season sees him score another home victory around Mid-Ohio.
Toronto is a bad day, somewhere outside the top ten. Nothing lasts forever, but he recovers with a pair of top five results at Iowa. He is in the top ten in the second IMS road course race and gets back in the top five at Nashville and Gateway. He survives turn one at Portland, completes every lap but finishes in the top ten and closes the season with a top five result at Laguna Seca.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Another year knocking on the door for victory and falling short with a few podium finishes, a few more top five finishes and ultimately ending up somewhere between seventh and tenth in the championship. But victories are possible.
Rahal has had plenty of close calls only for one thing to go wrong, whether that be a caution against his favor or lapped traffic or just having a poor starting position. With his pace, things are bound to go right eventually, and he will end up back on the top step of the podium. The challenge is to have enough of those days to become a championship challenger again.
Qualifying pace could continue to hamper the team and prevent him from challenge for many race victories. Rahal could still have those incredible drives from 14th to fifth or 16th to sixth, but those races will keep him on the outside of the fight at the top that likely feature Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Colton Herta, Will Power, Álex Palou and Alexander Rossi.
The consistency will be there, but it is difficult to see it being at that highest level for all 17 races. It could be just off and that would still be a good season but fall short of a great one.
Christian Lundgaard - #30 Mi-Jack Honda
Though remembered for his IndyCar debut, Lundgaard spent most of 2021 in the Formula Two championship driving for ART Grand Prix. In his second full season, the Dane opened with finishes of sixth and second in the Bahrain sprint races but would not score points in the next six races. He was third in the first Silverstone sprint race, but he had only 26 points from the first 12 races.
After Silverstone, there was a two-month gap in the Formula Two season, and Lundgaard was allowed to make his IndyCar debut in RLLR's #45 Honda at the August Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race. Though unfamiliar with the car and track, he was seventh in his first practice session. He was second in his round one qualifying group and wound up fourth on the grid in the two-round qualifying format used for this weekend. The team admitted it left a set of fresh tires unused thinking the third round, the Fast Six, was going to happen.
Despite the minor blunder, Lundgaard ran well in his opening stint and led two laps before his first pit stop. He did lose positions going long on his first stint, and he struggled with the alternate tire compound. Though he fell down the order, Lundgaard was respectable the entire race and finished 12th.
The Formula Two season resumed at Monza in early September and Lundgaard was third in the opening sprint race of the weekend. The strong start was an aberration, as Lundgaard only scored 24 points in the final 11 races of the season. He finished in the points of only three of eight feature races with his best feature race result being seventh in the significantly abbreviated Jeddah race, a five-lap race after delays for track repairs and accidents.
After finishing seventh in the Formula Two championship with two race victories, six podium finishes, nine top five finishes and a pole position in 2021, Lundgaard dropped to 12th in the championship with no victories and his three podium finishes being his only top five results.
Numbers to Remember:
0: Danish drivers have finished in the top five of an IndyCar race.
12: Top five finishes in 49 Formula Two starts.
9: Of those 12 top five finishes were podium finishes
7: Of those nine podium results came in sprint races.
25: Combined starts for Danish drivers in IndyCar history.
0: Rookies have won an IndyCar race driving for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
What does a championship season look like for him?
After his impressive debut in 2021, Lundgaard figures out the alternate tire compound and is in the top five at St. Petersburg. He finishes outside the top ten at Texas but completes every lap and gains valuable experience. He is in the top ten at Long Beach and jumps onto the podium at Barber.
Returning to the IMS road course, he wins the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and has a respectable Indianapolis 500, finishing somewhere just inside the top ten. He is on the podium again at Belle Isle before scoring a top five at Road America. RLLR gets a victory at home, but it is Lundgaard finishing first at Mid-Ohio before he scores a top five at Toronto.
Iowa is a split weekend, one average race and another where he finishes in the top ten. After winning on the IMS road course in May, Lundgaard is in the top five in August. He is on the podium in Nashville and gets another top ten result on an oval at Gateway. He finishes strong with a Portland victory and a podium result at Laguna Seca.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Lundgaard is the preseason rookie of the year favorite. He is the rookie with the best combination of team and talent, and we already have one outing where he looked comfortable with the car. For most the other rookies, they either aren't in the best outfits and don't have the support around them to truly prop them up or they have shown the level of talent we have seen to surpass Lundgaard.
There will be a few race weekends where Lundgaard is on it and blending in with the top drivers. In those cases, he will be leading the RLLR trio. A victory isn't out of the question. It might not happen, but there could a race where he starts in the top three and is in the top three for the entire race. There could be a race where he leads a healthy portion of the laps.
Standing in Lundgaard's way is he will still be getting used to the tires. These will be longer races than he is used to in a physically demanding car lacking power steering, and all but one of these tracks are a complete unknown to him. A few tracks will trip him up, most likely the street courses, and he is a virgin when it comes to ovals. Some drivers take to them well. Others cannot get to come to grips with the risk.
Lundgaard should be on the edge of the top ten, just where Takuma Sato was in this car a year ago.
Jack Harvey - #45 Hy-Vee Honda
After having a slow start to the 2020 season, Harvey's 2021 season started wonderfully. He had two top ten finishes in the first three races and his worst result was 11th. A fourth in St. Petersburg highlighted the strong start. It put Harvey fifth in the championship entering the second race of the Texas doubleheader. Unfortunately, a wheel bearing failure ended his race just before halfway while he was in the top ten. It was the start of three months of poor results.
A botched pit stop cost him a podium finish in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He was not a factor in the Indianapolis 500 and finished 18th and was invisible in the Belle Isle doubleheader. Things appeared to be turning around at Road America when he qualified third. Harvey was solidly in the top ten when the team decided to go off-strategy and stopped a handful of laps before the final pit window opened. This curious call forced Harvey to make an extra pit stop and he went from possibly sixth or seventh to 17th in the final results.
Harvey could not find the pace at Mid-Ohio, and another question pit strategy call shuffled him from the front at Nashville to 15th. He dropped to 14th in the championship after the eight-race stretch.
He bounced back with a sixth in the second IMS road course race and was tenth at Gateway. A long first stint help lifted him to a fourth-place finish at Portland from 20th on the grid. He was 15th at Laguna Seca but closed the season with a drive from 25th to seventh at Long Beach.
Numbers to Remember:
3: Harvey's championship position has improved by at least three positions every season he has been in IndyCar.
4: Retirements in 49 IndyCar starts.
28: Drivers have taken 50 starts or more to get their first career victory.
2: Of those 28 drivers have won an IndyCar championship (Jimmy Vasser and Josef Newgarden)
What does a championship season look like for him?
Harvey is back to his gangbuster qualifying form and wins pole position at St. Petersburg and it leads to a podium result. He is in the top ten at Texas and he starts on the front row at Long Beach before taking his first career victory.
Another pair of top five finishes follow at Barber and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, and he finishes in the top ten in the Indianapolis 500. He scores a podium result at Belle Isle before getting his second victory of the season at Road America. He makes it three consecutive top five finishes at Mid-Ohio.
Results dip a little with him just finishing inside the top ten at Toronto and both Iowa races, but he wins on the IMS road course in July and that leads off a three-race stretch of top five finishes. In Portland, he is on the podium, and he closes the season with a strong day at Laguna Seca, leading laps but driving smart and securing the championship with a podium result.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
RLLR might have the most balanced driver lineup in IndyCar. Harvey's expectations are in line with Rahal and Lundgaard.
He should be somewhere close to the top ten on a regular basis. There should be a few races where things click, and he is at the front the entire time. RLLR is known for its qualifying woes, but Harvey's ability can overcome the deficit and put the team further up the starting grid. Strategy choices will be more practical and that will lead to good results for Harvey.
A victory is possible, especially if he gets on the front row. If he is a regular top ten starter, he could be a regular top ten finish. The one looming concern is Harvey has three or four races go wrong a season. All those results are not the driver's fault, but some do fall on him. He doesn't tear up equipment, he has only five retirements in his first 49 starts, one of those was a wheel bearing failure and another one was contact from another car out of his control at Road America in 2020, but there always seems to be a race where strategy befalls him.
This is a different team, and RLLR does not have a notable history of the poor strategy choices like the ones Harvey had in 2021. Better decisions from the timing stand could lead to the best results of Harvey's IndyCar career, and it could lead to multiple RLLR cars in the top ten of the championship.
The 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday February 27 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC's coverage will begin at noon ET.
