Nashville was not just the final race of six races in a 36-day stretch in IndyCar. In the fictional world of head-to-head IndyCar racing, it was the final weekend of the regular season in the top league. Playoff spots were decided. Safety for the 2023 season was decided. The battle for promotion continued.
In June, we went over the first eight weeks of the season and set the scene. Below will be a brief summary of where things stood after Road America.
League One (Through eight weeks):
Conference One
1. #12 Penske 7-1
2. #27 Andretti 5-3
3. #3 Penske 4-4
4. #10 Ganassi 4-4
5. #45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan 4-4
6. #26 Andretti 4-4
7. #9 Ganassi 3-5
8. #51 Coyne 1-7
Conference Two
1. #8 Ganassi 6-2
2. #2 Penske 6-2
3. #15 RLLR 5-3
4. #60 Meyer Shank 4-4
5. #28 Andretti 4-4
6. #18 Coyne 3-5
7. #5 Arrow McLaren SP 3-5
8. #30 RLLR 1-7
League Two (Top three automatically promoted)
1. #7 AMSP 8-1
2. #21 ECR 6-3
3. #06 MSR 6-3
4. #48 Ganassi 5-4
5. #20 ECR 5-4
6. #29 Andretti 5-4
7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 4-5
8. #14 Foyt 3-6
9. #4 Foyt 2-7
10. #11 Foyt 1-8
How did the final six weeks shake up the regular season? Who are in the playoffs? What teams have to compete in the relegation playoff? Who has already been dropped? The actual IndyCar championship has been breathtakingly close and we are set for a possible historic championship finish to the 2022 season. Does the head-to-head world match what we are seeing in the real world?
Conference One
1. #12 Penske 11-3
Mid-Ohio: WIN (3rd to #51's 14th)
Toronto: LOSS (15th to #9's 1st)
Iowa: WIN (3rd to #45's 18th)
Iowa: WIN (2nd to #10's 13th)
Brickyard: WIN (3rd to #3's 4th)
Nashville: LOSS (11 to #26's 5th)
2. #3 Penske 9-5
Mid-Ohio: WIN (1st to #10's 2nd)
Toronto: WIN (9th to #27's 23rd)
Iowa: WIN (22nd to #26's 24th)
Iowa: WIN (3rd to #51's 10th)
Brickyard: LOSS (4th to #12's 3rd)
Nashville: WIN (2nd to #45's 10th)
3. #27 Andretti 8-6
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (19th to #26's 15th)
Toronto: LOSS (23rd to #3's 9th)
Iowa: LOSS (13th to #10's 6th)
Iowa: WIN (18th to #45's 20th)
Brickyard: WIN (1st to #9's 8th)
Nashville: WIN (4th to #18's 21st)
4. #9 Ganassi 8-6
Mid-Ohio: WIN (5th to #45's 20th)
Toronto: WIN (1st to #12's 15th)
Iowa: WIN (5th to #51's 21st)
Iowa: WIN (4th to #26's 12th)
Brickyard: LOSS (8th to #27's 1st)
Nashville: WIN (1st to #10's 3rd)
5. #10 Ganassi 7-7
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (2nd to #3's 1st)
Toronto: WIN (6th to #51's 25th)
Iowa: WIN (6th to #27's 13th)
Iowa: LOSS (13th to #12's 2nd)
Brickyard: WIN (10th to #26's 24th)
Nashville: LOSS (3rd to #9's 1st)
6. #26 Andretti 7-7
Mid-Ohio: WIN (15th to #27's 19th)
Toronto: WIN (2nd to #45's 19th)
Iowa: LOSS (24th to #3's 22nd)
Iowa: LOSS (12th to #9's 4th)
Brickyard: LOSS (24th to #10's 10th)
Nashville: WIN (5th to #12's 11th)
7. #45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan 4-10
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (20th to #9's 5th)
Toronto: LOSS (19th to #26's 2nd)
Iowa: LOSS (18th to #12's 3rd)
Iowa: LOSS (20th to #27's 18th)
Brickyard: LOSS (20th to #51's 15th)
Nashville: LOSS (10th to #3's 2nd)
8. #51 Coyne 2-12
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (14th to #12's 3rd)
Toronto: LOSS (25th to #10's 6th)
Iowa: LOSS (21st to #9's 5th)
Iowa: LOSS (10th to #3's 3rd)
Brickyard: WIN (15th to #45's 20th)
Nashville: LOSS (21st to #27's 4th)
Conference One Breakdown:
The #12 Penske entry tops the conference and the #3 Penske is second.
On the final day of the season, Scott Dixon's victory over Álex Palou combined with Alexander Rossi's head-to-head win over Takuma Sato knocked Palou out of the playoffs and moved Rossi up to third in conference. Rossi was 2-0 head-to-head against Dixon. It should be noted Dixon went from seventh after Road America to the fourth and final playoff spot, going 5-1 in the final six matchups.
Palou keeps fifth and is guaranteed safety for the #10 Ganassi entry for the 2023 season. Palou was 2-0 against Colton Herta head-to-head, meaning the #26 Andretti and #45 RLLR head to the relegation playoff.
The #51 Coyne entry is relegated and he was relegated after the Toronto round.
Conference Two
1. #2 Penske 10-4
Mid-Ohio: WIN (7th to #28's 21st)
Toronto: LOSS (10th to #60's 7th)
Iowa: WIN (1st to #30's 10th)
Iowa: LOSS (24th to #15's 14th)
Brickyard: WIN (5th to #8's 11th)
Nashville: WIN (6th to #5's 24th)
2. #8 Ganassi 9-5
Mid-Ohio: WIN (6th to #30's 11th)
Toronto: WIN (5th to #18's 12th)
Iowa: LOSS (8th to #28's 7th)
Iowa: LOSS (6th to #5's 1st)
Brickyard: LOSS (11th to #2's 5th)
Nashville: WIN (14th to #15's 23rd)
3. #15 Rahal Letterman Lanigan 9-5
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (12th to #60's 10th)
Toronto: WIN (4th to #5's 11th)
Iowa: WIN (9th to #18's 14th)
Iowa: WIN (14th to #2's 24th)
Brickyard: WIN (7th to #28's 16th)
Nashville: LOSS (23rd to #8's 14th)
4. #28 Andretti 7-7
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (21st to #2's 7th)
Toronto: LOSS (16th to #30's 8th)
Iowa: WIN (7th to #8's 8th)
Iowa: WIN (9th to #60's 23rd)
Brickyard: LOSS (16th to #15's 7th)
Nashville: WIN (16th to #18's 20th)
5. #60 Meyer Shank 6-8
Mid-Ohio: WIN (10th to #15's 12th)
Toronto: WIN (7th to #2's 10th)
Iowa: LOSS (23rd to #5's 2nd)
Iowa: LOSS (23rd to #28's 9th)
Brickyard: LOSS (25th to #18's 13th)
Nashville: LOSS (9th to #30's 8th)
6. #18 Coyne 6-8
Mid-Ohio: WIN (9th to #5's 24th)
Toronto: LOSS (12th to #8's 5th)
Iowa: LOSS (14th to #15's 9th)
Iowa: WIN (8th to #30's 26th)
Brickyard: WIN (13th to #60's 25th)
Nashville: LOSS (20th to #28's 16th)
7. #5 Arrow McLaren SP 5-9
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (24th to #18's 9th)
Toronto: LOSS (11th to #15's 4th)
Iowa: WIN (2nd to #60's 23rd)
Iowa: WIN (1st to #8's 6th)
Brickyard: LOSS (12th to #30's 2nd)
Nashville: LOSS (24th to #2's 6th)
8. #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan 4-10
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (11th to #8's 6th)
Toronto: WIN (8th to #28's 16th)
Iowa: LOSS (10th to #2's 1st)
Iowa: LOSS (26th to #18's 8th)
Brickyard: WIN (2nd to #5's 12th)
Nashville: WIN (8th to #60's 9th)
Conference Two Breakdown:
The final weekend of the regular season shook up conference two quite a bit. The #2 Penske entry went from second to first with Josef Newgarden defeating Patricio O'Ward head-to-head, combined with Marcus Ericsson, despite his retirement, defeating Graham Rahal, who entered Nashville as the one-seed.
Speaking of retirements, Romain Grosjean still made the playoffs despite retiring at Nashville because he was still ahead of David Malukas, and Christian Lundgaard, whose late surge in form wasn't enough to avoid relegation, played spoiler, defeating Simon Pagenaud by a single position to knock Pagenaud out of a playoff spot. Pagenaud will still be fifth on tiebreaker over Malukas and keep the #60 Shank entry in League One for 2023.
The #18 Coyne and #5 AMSP head to the relegation playoff. The #30 RLLR was assured relegation after the second Iowa race.
League Two
1. #7 Arrow McLaren SP 12-3
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (27th to #48's 16th)
Toronto: WIN (3rd to #29's 18th)
Iowa: LOSS (26th to #77's 12th)
Iowa: WIN (7th to #14's 25th)
Brickyard: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Nashville: WIN (7 to #21's 12th)
2. #21 ECR 11-4
Mid-Ohio: WIN (4th to #11's 25th)
Toronto: WIN (13th to #77's 14th)
Iowa: WIN (4th to #4's 20th)
Iowa: WIN (19th to #06's 21st)
Brickyard: WIN (6th to #48's 22nd)
Nashville: LOSS (12 to #7's 7th)
3. #06 Meyer Shank 11-4
Mid-Ohio: WIN (8th to #29's 17th)
Toronto: WIN (17th to #14's 22nd)
Iowa: WIN (16th to #20's 19th)
Iowa: LOSS (21st to #21's 19th)
Brickyard: WIN (19th to #4's 21st)
Nashville: WIN (13th to #77's 15th)
4. #20 ECR 10-5
Mid-Ohio: WIN (13th to #77's 23rd)
Toronto: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Iowa: LOSS (19th to #06's 19th)
Iowa: WIN (16th to #4's 22nd)
Brickyard: WIN (17th to #29's 18th)
Nashville: WIN (17th to #14's 19th)
5. #48 Ganassi 10-5
Mid-Ohio: WIN (16th to #7's 27th)
Toronto: WIN (21st to #4's 24th)
Iowa: WIN (11th to #29's 17th)
Iowa: WIN (5th to #77's 11th)
Brickyard: LOSS (22nd to #21'st 6th)
Nashville: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
6. #29 Andretti 7-8
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (17th to #06's 8th)
Toronto: LOSS (18th to #7's 3rd)
Iowa: LOSS (17th to #48's 11th)
Iowa: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Brickyard: LOSS (18th to #20's 17th)
Nashville: WIN (22nd to #4's 25th)
7. #77 Juncos Hollinger 6-9
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (23rd to #20's 13th)
Toronto: LOSS (14th to #21's 13th)
Iowa: WIN (12th to #7's 26th)
Iowa: LOSS (11th to #48's 5th)
Brickyard: WIN (14th to #14's 23rd)
Nashville: LOSS (15th to #06's 13th)
8. #14 Foyt 4-11
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (26th to #4's 22nd)
Toronto: LOSS (22nd to #06's 17th)
Iowa: WIN (Walkover - #11 DNA)
Iowa: LOSS (25th to #7's 7th)
Brickyard: LOSS (23rd to #77's 14th)
Nashville: LOSS (19th to #20's 17th)
9. #4 Foyt 3-12
Mid-Ohio: WIN (22nd to #14's 26th)
Toronto: LOSS (24th to #48's 21st)
Iowa: LOSS (20th to #21's 4th)
Iowa: LOSS (22nd to #20's 16th)
Brickyard: LOSS (21st to #06's 19th)
Nashville: LOSS (25th to #29's 22nd)
10. #11 Foyt 1-14
Mid-Ohio: LOSS (25th to #21's 4th)
Toronto: LOSS (Did not appear)
Iowa: LOSS (Did not appear)
Iowa: LOSS (Did not appear)
Brickyard: LOSS (Did not appear)
Nashville: LOSS (Did not appear)
League Two Outlook:
Unlike League One, the League Two regular season isn't over yet and the final three races will decide which three teams are promoted for the 2023 season.
No team has locked up promotion yet, but the #7 Arrow McLaren SP entry must feel good being two games up on fourth with three to play. It does have the #20 ECR entry and #06 Shank entry in the final three weeks.
The #21 ECR entry owns the tiebreaker on the #06 Shank entry. Rinus VeeKay is 2-0 against Hélio Castroneves this year. Conor Daly is 1-0 against Jimmie Johnson, but they face again at Portland and that could decide who will get promoted or not. It is a five-horse race with three races remaining. No one outside the top five can earn promotion.
Playoffs:
Quarterfinals:
#12 Penske vs. #28 Andretti
#8 CGR vs. #27 Andretti
#3 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#2 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi
Josef Newgarden has won the head-to-head championship all three seasons it has been tracked. In year four, as a #1 seed, Newgarden faces Scott Dixon in the quarterfinals. On paper, that is the matchup that flips history upside down.
Andretti's two playoff teams are both the worst seeds on the same side of the bracket. If the team makes it a sweep of upsets, Andretti will be guaranteed a finalist. If the team has a sweep of losses, that would be a fitting end to its season. And then you have Scott McLaughlin vs. Graham Rahal and one of those two will be a semifinalist.
Relegation Playoff:
Semifinals:
#26 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
#18 DCR vs. #45 RLLR
Could anyone have imagined one of Colton Herta or Patricio O'Ward will be guaranteed to face relegation at the start of the season? That is going to happen as the two are paired at Gateway. The winners are guaranteed safety for 2023. The losers will face off at Portland to determine who will be the third team relegated from the 2022 season.
There is plenty of drama in the final few weeks of the IndyCar season, and after Laguna Seca, we will tie up all that has happened.
