Monday, August 29, 2022

Musings From the Weekend: Could NASCAR End by Labor Day?

Formula One returned from its summer break, and Max Verstappen effectively ended the championship with his ninth victory of the season in the Belgian Grand Prix, this one coming from 14th on the grid. Ferrari is useless. Daniel Ricciardo is leaving McLaren. Apparently, Red Bull wants Colton Herta now. Marcus Ericsson knows it all. NASCAR battled three days of rain, and a driver who was no worse than 11th in the Cup championship through 26 races and was ranked in the top ten for 25 of 26 races, will now finish no better than 17th in the championship. Elsewhere, brothers had a good day in Germany. Verstappen wasn't the only impressive drive from the rear of the field. There were some sports car races. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Could NASCAR End by Labor Day?
August is disappearing quickly, and with September comes football season, although it is basically already here.

Preseason games concluded over the weekend, and a few of those games clashed with motorsports. On Saturday night, in a few notable markets, preseason games took precedence over the NASCAR Cup race from Daytona on those local NBC affiliates. 

In the Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. markets, the race was going to be joined in progress after the football games were over had the race not already been delayed due to rain. In Phoenix and Baltimore, the race was going to be broadcasted on other local channels and the same was the case for Tampa and Orlando/Daytona Beach. The folks in Daytona Beach wouldn't have been able to watch the Daytona race on their local NBC affiliate. I am sure that is how Big Bill France always dreamed it would be.

Though NASCAR should avoid having races preempted for the final ten weeks of the season, nine of the final ten races are during the NFL season and will go against football. The Saturday night Bristol race is the only one that avoids professional football but does go against plenty of college football. 

Football is king in the United States, and it is difficult for any sport to draw an audience against it. The average viewer has its television migration pattern set once it turns to September and the temperatures begin to drop. Everyone flocks to football regardless of what else is on and how appealing it may be. 

Thought experiment: could NASCAR end by Labor Day? 

It would be a shock to the NASCAR season, but for a series that runs nearly every race at Sunday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern to maximize television audience and has done away with almost all of its night races, wouldn't NASCAR look to maximize its season and avoid its biggest challenger, especially for the end of the season when the championship is decided? 

The NASCAR championship is completely overshadowed ending in November. No matter the format, the final races of the NASCAR season are not going to draw additional attention during football season. NASCAR changed the format so four drivers would be alive for the championship in the final race with the best finisher of the four claiming the title to make sure the championship would basically always come down to the final lap of the season. Despite these changes, it hasn't meant more people are tuning in for the finale. The finale's audience has declined since this change. 

For a series that goes until the first Sunday in November, ending in the first week of September requires a massive calendar shift. It would likely require the season to start earlier, but the problem is football season now brushes against the start of the NASCAR season. With the Super Bowl now the second weekend in February, there is no off week between the Super Bowl and the Daytona 500. 

Looking to 2023, from the Sunday after the Super Bowl through Labor Day there are 29 weekends. Not quite enough for 36 races. But let's creative with this. How could NASCAR make this work?

1. Expand a few weekends into the end of football season
It sounds crazy to race during the NFL playoffs, but the last three weekends of the NFL season consist of just three games on two days plus the Pro Bowl. The Saturday of conference championship game weekend is open. You can race against the Pro Bowl. You can even race the Saturday before the Super Bowl. 

There are three additional weekends right there. But you cannot make anymore. The divisional round in the NFL playoffs takes place over a Saturday and a Sunday. In theory, with the divisional round games not starting until 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday and 3:00 p.m. ET on the Sunday, NASCAR could squeeze an early afternoon race in, but any weather delay means going head-to-head with playoff games and that isn't smart. 

2. Doubleheaders
For some reason most American motorsports fans despise doubleheader weekends, but they increased value to a weekend, and they make a lot of sense. I must admit I do not see the point of a track hosting two regular season races on separate weekends for the Cup Series. If a track has two races one should be in the regular season and the other should be in the playoffs. Two regular season races on two different weekends are wasteful. Just run them on the same weekend and get the track out of the way. 

3. No Clash and No All-Star Race
Get rid of those two exhibitions and now NASCAR isn't wasting two weekends on races that pay no points. 

4. The Daytona 500 would not be the season opener
Don't worry, you will live. 

Using 2023 as the template, how could NASCAR end by Labor Day weekend?

1. January 27 - Fontana
Taking advantage of the warm weather, Fontana opens the season on a Saturday evening. This works because Fontana has lights and NASCAR could go all night to avoid having to run Sunday against the NFL conference championship games. This works whether Fontana is a 2-mile oval or if it is converted to a short track. 

2. and 3. February 4-5 - Phoenix
For this to work, there will need to be doubleheaders. With a season ending in early September, Phoenix doesn't work as a season finale. Phoenix can host a race from the middle of October through the end of April and then it becomes too hot to handle. It is a tough pill to swallow but a doubleheader can still be a great event. 

4. February 11 - Sonoma
It is the day before the Super Bowl and it is on a road course that way if it rains the race can get in and significantly decreases the chance of the race moving to Super Bowl Sunday, though even Super Bowl Sunday wouldn't be bad. The race could be over with still four hours of pregame to spare. 

5. February 19 - Daytona 500
It would be different with the Daytona 500 being the fifth race of the season, but it would still be the week after the Super Bowl, having four races to build up to the Daytona 500 wouldn't be bad and we could still have the qualifying races on Thursday. Not all change is bad. 

6. February 26 - Homestead
Let's keep the teams in Florida. Besides, with the season ending by Labor Day, Homestead doesn't work as a playoff race in August. 

7. and 8. March 4-5 - Las Vegas
Like Phoenix, Las Vegas no longer works with a summer playoff. It has two races; it gets a doubleheader. Again, it is a chance for a big weekend. Run a pair of 500-kilometer races, run one on Saturday evening and the other on Sunday afternoon. 

9. March 12 - Austin
Better weather than most of the country for the final weekend of winter and another early road course race. Not a bad thing. 

10. March 19 - Darlington
NASCAR ran at Darlington in mid-to-late March for the entire 1990s into the early 2000s. It works.

11. March 26 - Texas
This is where I admit it would be very difficult for NASCAR to condense its season to late-January through Labor Day weekend. NASCAR has warm weather venues, but not enough warm weather venues. In this case, Texas is this damn close to Austin. It doesn't make much sense but there aren't many other great choices. Bristol and Martinsville in March have both had bad weather. You cannot move Dover or Pocono to March. Even the Dallas/Fort Worth area gets rough weather in March. But it is the best of the options that are remaining. 

12. and 13. April 1-2 - Atlanta
This sounds nuts considering how Atlanta has been reconfigured and the current technical package makes it a pack race but if a track is going to have two regular season races, just do them on the same weekend. Plus, with Talladega in the playoffs, it doesn't make any sense to have Talladega and Atlanta each in the playoffs. Give Atlanta a pair of 500-kilometer races instead.

14. April 16 - Talladega
Even with this condensed schedule, NASCAR could still find time to take Easter off and then return with Talladega in the middle of April. Perfect. 

15. April 22-23 - Kansas
To make this work, NASCAR needs four doubleheader weekends in the regular season. Kansas has two races. Kansas doesn't need a playoff race. Kansas gets a doubleheader. 

16. April 29 - Martinsville
Martinsville gets a night race in the middle of spring. 

17. May 7 - Pocono
Pocono is hard to fit in this schedule. May is a little early where the weather in the Northeast can still be unpredictable. Not that it could snow on May 7, just rain a lot. But Pocono isn't keeping its July date and becoming a playoff race, and Pocono makes more sense than some other tracks for the first weekend in May (see Michigan).

18. May 14 - Watkins Glen
A spring Northeast swing takes place in May. Again, the weather could be iffy in the Finger Lakes region, but there is a reason Watkins Glen had to move from its summer date. A lot of concession would have to be made to make this schedule happen. This is one of them. 

19. May 21 - Bristol
I don't care if it is on dirt or concrete, the spring Bristol race suffers when it is held in late-March or early-April when the nice weather has yet to consistently roll in. Middle of May should be good enough for Bristol, regardless of the surface. 

20. May 28 - Charlotte 
After what could be the Bristol dirt race is the Coca-Cola 600. That is a pretty good one-two combo to promote for May and combined with Watkins Glen it is a stellar trio of races.

21. June 4 - Gateway
Gateway can stay put where it was scheduled for 2022. 

22. and 23. June 10-11 - Richmond
The final doubleheader of the season. It is a pair of short track races. One night, one day, everyone gets one of what they like. These are crucial races at the end of the regular season. 

25. June 18 - Michigan
We need to fit Michigan in somewhere. It returns to the middle of June where it was for basically 50 years. 

26. June 24 - Daytona
The regular season still ends at Daytona, but now it is the weekend before Independence Day weekend so it is close to where it belongs. 

Playoffs
27. July 2 - Chicago Street Race
I hate that Road America is gone as well, but the Chicago street race is happening (we think). It might only last a year or two or three tops, but let's start the playoffs with a street race. That is beginning with a bang. 

28. July 9 - Loudon
Like many tracks, Loudon has to fit somewhere. It would be tough to do it in May and couldn't be done much earlier than May. Loudon was a playoff race before and it is a good track. It gets to be in round one. 

29. July 16 - Nashville
NASCAR would be smart to end a playoff round in Nashville, though the 1.333-mile concrete oval is about 40 minutes outside the city. But if this race does move to the Nashville Fairgrounds, no one would complain about ending round one on a short track. 

30. July 23 - Dover
Round two begins in Delaware, and this might feel off, but you have to pick your poison with these races. Do you run Dover in May and Pocono in the playoffs instead? No. What about swapping Dover for Michigan? You aren't excited about that either. Nobody wants Texas in the playoffs. You get Dover and Dover is a wild card race of sorts, as it is a high-banked concrete oval. Live with it. 

31. July 30 - Talladega
Talladega would always be in the playoffs and if NASCAR is willing to boil spectators racing at Atlanta in July, it could easily return to boiling spectators at Talladega in July. The second Talladega race was held in either July or August from 1970 through 1996. Maybe NASCAR puts lights up around the 2.66-mile oval and it could become a night race. 

32. August 6 - Bristol
Round two ends at Bristol and talk about a one-two punch. Talladega and Bristol to end a playoff round. You know you want to see it. 

33. August 13 - Indianapolis
This might frustrate you, but when else can Indianapolis happen? It cannot take place in April or May, and June is too close to the Indianapolis 500. It is basically forced to be a playoff race, and that might not be a bad thing. It would have to return to the oval but imagine the Brickyard 400 being one of the races to decide who will race for the championship. Doesn't sound so bad now, does it?

34. August 20 - Charlotte Roval
Originally, I had Watkins Glen keeping this date and the Charlotte roval running May 21 the week prior to the Coca-Cola 600 and making it a two-week Charlotte celebration with Bristol on May 14. But I think people would be upset with that even if Watkins Glen is just as suitable for this spot in the playoffs as Charlotte. I also had a tough time believing Charlotte Motor Speedway would want its races on consecutive weekends and I am not sure a week to convert the track from road course to oval is enough time. This is one of the concessions that had to be made.

35. August 26 - Martinsville
No change here. Penultimate race of the season is a Saturday night race at Martinsville, albeit two months earlier than now. 

36. September 3 - Darlington
Would there be a better test to determine a champion than the Southern 500? 

One, we know it would get a great crowd. 

Two, it is an iconic event. Every driver wants to win it. It doesn't require any additional promotion and it would crowd the champion at one of NASCAR's most famous tracks. 

Three, it would be demanding. To be the champion would require the best night of driver's life. It would be the most rewarding feeling to become champion after such a race. 

The last few years has shown NASCAR is more open to new ideas than ever before. With contract negotiations for new television deals coming soon, NASCAR could stand to benefit from ending before football season started. It would open itself up to more bidders as networks would know it wouldn't have to go against the NFL. Plus, it would put the most important races of the NASCAR season in the heart of the summer when the biggest sports competition is baseball. It is a fertile soil for NASCAR to bloom in and potentially be the star of American sports summer. 

This isn't going to happen, but if NASCAR really wanted to commit its scheduling revolution, it would make sure its championship isn't buried beneath seven miles of football coverage. It needs to make sure it has a spotlight and that could require the greatest scheduling shift imaginable. 

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen, but did you know...

Liam Lawson and Jack Doohan split the Formula Two races from Spa-Francorchamps. Oliver Bearman and Zane Mahoney split the Formula Three races.

Austin Dillon won the NASCAR Cup race from Daytona. Jeremy Clements won the Grand National Series race, his second career victory and his first since Road America 2017.

The #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche of Matt Campbell and Mathieu Jaminet won the IMSA race from Virginia International Raceway. The #57 Winward Racing Mercedes-AMG of Russell Ward and Phillip Ellis won in GT Daytona.

The #12 Calsonic Team Impul Nissan of Kazuki Hiramine and Bertrand Baguette won the Super GT race from Suzuka from last on the grid. The #4 Goodsmile Racing & Team Ukyo Mercedes-AMG of Tatsuya Kataoka and Nobuteru Taniguchi won in GT300.

The #9 Prema Racing Oreca-Gibson of Lorenzo Colombo, Louis Delétraz and Ferdinand Habsburg won the 4 Hours of Barcelona, its third victory of the season. The #13 Inter Europol Competition of Charles Crews, Guilherme Oliveira and Nico Pino won in Ligier-Nissan LMP3 class, its second consecutive victory. The #77 Proton Competition Porsche of Gianmaria Bruni, Lorenzo Ferrari and Christian Ried won in the GTE class, its second consecutive victory.

Sheldon van der Linde and Luca Stolz split the  Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters races from the Nürburgring. It was Stolz's first DTM victory.

Coming Up This Weekend
IndyCar's penultimate race from Portland. 
Formula One dives into a sea of orange at Zandvoort. 
NASCAR has the Southern 500 from Darlington. 
Andrea Dovizioso makes his final MotoGP start at Misano.
GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Series visits Hockenheim.