The 15th round of the 2022 NTT IndyCar Series will be held at Gateway Motorsports Park, the fifth and final oval round of the season. This will be the 14th race held at the 1.25-mile oval, and through the first 13 races there have been 11 different winners. Five of those winners are entered this weekend. Since Gateway returned to the schedule, Chevrolet holds the edge having won four of six races, including the last two. Chevrolet has won three of four oval races this season and nine races total. This will be the first season Chevrolet has won majority of the races since 2019 and it is looking for its first manufactures’ championship since 2017. Chevrolet leads the manufactures’ championship with 1,157 points to Honda’s 1,089 points.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 20 with green flag scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 1:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 4:15 p.m. ET
Second Practice: 7:15 p.m. ET (105 minutes)
Saturday:
Race: 6:30 p.m. ET (260 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
Championship Picture
The IndyCar championship was already tight prior to the Nashville race at the start of August. After the Nashville race, the top drivers have only gotten closer. The gap from first to fifth went from 46 points to 33 points and the gap from first to seventh dropped from 81 points to 59 points.
Will Power retained the championship lead with 450 points, but his advantage is down to six points over Scott Dixon after Dixon’s victory at Nashville. Power was 11th at Nashville, his fourth finish outside the top ten in the last nine races, but those other five races have all been podium results. However, every top ten finish Power has had this season has been a top five result. Dixon has eight consecutive top ten finishes, six of which have been top five results.
Marcus Ericsson’s 14th at Nashville dropped Ericsson to third in the championship, but he only lost three points to Power and Ericsson is 12 points off the top spot. Ericsson has been outside the top ten in the last two races and he has not had a top five finish in the last four races, one of two drivers in the top ten of the championship without a top five result in the last four races.
Josef Newgarden is fourth, 22 points behind his Team Penske teammate Power while reigning champion Álex Palou is up to fifth after the Spaniard’s third-place finish at Nashville. Palou is now 33 points off the championship lead, the closest he has been since he was 14 points off and fourth in the championship after the Belle Isle round.
Three consecutive top five finishes has Scott McLaughlin up to sixth in the championship, 58 points behind his teammate Power while two consecutive finishes outside the top ten has dropped Patricio O’Ward to seventh, 59 points from the top spot. This is McLaughlin’s best championship position since he was third after the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. This is O’Ward’s worst championship position since he was seventh after the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.
Alexander Rossi is 120 points off the top spot after a pair of top five finishes, five points closer than Felix Rosenqvist, the other driver in the top ten of the championship without a top five finish in the last four races along with fellow Swede Ericsson. Colton Herta maintained tenth in the championship with his comeback drive to fifth at Nashville. Herta is 135 points off of Power.
Rinus VeeKay sits 11th in the championship, 150 points back. VeeKay has alternated finishing inside and outside the top ten in the last seven races and he was 12th at Nashville, his fourth consecutive street course finish outside the top ten after opening the season with a sixth at St. Petersburg.
With only 162 points left on the table, Simon Pagenaud, Graham Rahal, Romain Grosjean, Christian Lundgaard, Conor Daly and David Malukas were mathematically eliminated from championship contention after Nashville.
After Gateway, there will only be 108 points available over the final two races.
Dixon’s Surge
In recent weeks, it has been hard not to notice Scott Dixon climb into the championship discussion. After his second victory and now only being six points off the top spot, Dixon has emerged as possibly the favorite to hoist the Astor Cup at Laguna Seca in less than a month.
Dixon had arguably the biggest blunder of his IndyCar career at the Indianapolis 500 when he sped entering the pit lane for his final pit stop while the leader. Instead of possibly finishing first and scoring the maximum 115 points, Dixon was 21st and had 33 points scored. Instead of exiting Indianapolis as the championship leader with 248 points and leading the championship by 42 points, Dixon left sixth on 166 points and 60 points behind his teammate and Indianapolis 500 winner Marcus Ericsson.
Since the Indianapolis 500, Dixon has an average finish of 4.5 with six top five finishes, the most top five finishes in that timeframe. He has won twice, and is one of two drivers with multiple victories since Indianapolis with the other being Josef Newgarden.
Dixon did remain sixth in the championship through Mid-Ohio and his deficit to the championship lead grew initially. He was 74 points off first after Belle Isle before narrowly decreasing to 69 points after Road America and 64 points after Mid-Ohio.
Surprisingly, winning does a lot of good, and Dixon’s Toronto triumph took him to fifth in the championship, 44 points off the top spot. He gained six more points after the first Iowa race and four more points after the second Iowa race. Dixon then lost four points at the second Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race but his Nashville victory took out a 32-point chunk in the championship fight and this is the closest he has been to the championship lead all season.
In the last eight races, Dixon has scored 278 points, the most in IndyCar. The next closest is Newgarden with 254 points while Power has scored 248 points. McLaughlin has 230 points in the last eight races while Ericsson has scored 212 points, seven more than Palou.
This run of form is also coming at a time when Dixon has been starting poorly. He has started outside the top ten in the last four races, his most consecutive races without a top ten start since a four-race run from Texas to Pocono in 2013. Despite not starting in the top ten, Dixon has three top five finishes in the last four races. Dixon has not gone five consecutive races without a top ten starting position since 2005 at St. Petersburg, Motegi, Indianapolis, Texas and Richmond.
Dixon last led the championship after the 2021 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. If Dixon were to take the championship lead after Gateway, it should be noted the last time Dixon did not convert a championship lead after one of the final three races into a title was 2009 when he led after the penultimate round at Motegi but lost the title to Dario Franchitti at Homestead by ten points.
Oval Championship
Larger championship aside, Gateway is the final oval race of the season, and the unofficial oval championship will be decided. Unlike most seasons, Gateway is cut and dry over who could be the top oval driver in 2022.
It is a two-horse race. Marcus Ericsson leads with 197 points, four points clear of 2021 oval champion Patricio O’Ward.
Ericsson’s lead is boosted with his Indianapolis 500 victory, but he was third at Texas and he has finished in the top ten of all four oval races this season. O’Ward was second to Ericsson at Indianapolis and he was second and first in the two Iowa races. A 15th at Texas has hamstrung O’Ward’s oval title defense.
Twenty-three of Ericsson’s 36 laps led this season have come on ovals, ten at Texas and 13 at Indianapolis. O’Ward led 26 laps at Indianapolis alone and he went on to lead 66 more laps on his way to his victory in the second Iowa race.
If Ericsson were to win the oval championship he would become the tenth different driver to take the honor since the 2010 season. He would also become the eighth consecutive different driver to be the top oval driver and each of those eight champions would represent a different nationality. It would be the fourth time a Chip Ganassi Racing driver took the honor.
If O’Ward were to win the oval championship, he would be the first repeat oval champion since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2014-15. The only other drivers with multiple oval titles are Hélio Castroneves and Scott Dixon. It would be the first time since 2010 that IndyCar would have gone consecutive seasons without the oval champion being from either Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing.
There is an outside shot Josef Newgarden could be oval champion, but it would require Ericsson not starting the Gateway race. Newgarden is 50 points behind the Swede, but if Ericsson starts the most Newgarden could make up to Ericsson is 49 points. If Ericsson for some reason does not start this race, Newgarden would be second only to O’Ward, 46 points back.
In that case, the only way for Newgarden to win the oval championship would be with a victory. With 51 points for a victory, Newgarden would need O’Ward to finish 25th or worse with no bonus points. With the maximum 54 bonus points, Newgarden would need O’Ward to score eight points or fewer. Eight points are awarded for a 22nd-place finish.
In all likelihood, Newgarden will be fighting for third in the oval championship and he is only four points ahead of Penske teammate Will Power. There is 20 points between Newgarden in third and Palou in fifth. Scott Dixon is on 125 oval points, two behind his Ganassi teammate Palou. Felix Rosenqvist is quietly in seventh with 110 oval points.
Scott McLaughlin has 96 points, two ahead of Alexander Rossi and Conor Daly. Coincidentally, Rossi and Daly each have only one top ten finish on an oval this season. Rossi was fifth at Indianapolis and Daly was sixth at Indianapolis. In his first season on ovals, Jimmie Johnson has 90 points, one more than David Malukas.
Simon Pagenaud, Rinus VeeKay and Hélio Castroneves round out the top fifteen with 86 points, 85 points and 83 points respectively.
Tony Kanaan will not be competing at Gateway, but he has 78 oval points, the same total as Graham Rahal. Romain Grosjean and Ed Carpenter are tied on 67 points. Santino Ferrucci and Callum Ilott are tied on 62 points but Ferrucci will not be competing at Gateway. Christian Lundgaard has 60 points while Takuma Sato and Devlin DeFrancesco are tied on 54 points.
J.R. Hildebrand scored 53 points between Texas and Indianapolis but, like Iowa, Hildebrand will not contest Gateway. Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood are tied on 52 oval points. Dalton Kellett has scored 41 oval points. Juan Pablo Montoya only ran the Indianapolis 500 and scored 38 points. Jack Harvey has run three of four oval races having missed Texas after a practice accident, but he has scored only 34 oval points.
Marco Andretti, Sage Karam and Stefan Wilson ran the Indianapolis 500 and are the bottom three in oval points with 17, 14 and ten points respectively.
Palou’s Search For Success
While Álex Palou is still defending his title, and his podium result at Nashville brought him back into the thick of the championship fight, Palou does have one thing still gnawing at his season. He has yet to win a race.
After winning three times last year, including winning the 2021 season opener at Barber Motorsports Park on debut with Chip Ganassi Racing, Palou has yet to take the top step of the podium in 2022. The Spaniard has three runner-up finishes, the most this season. The only other drivers with multiple runner-up results are Scott McLaughlin and Patricio O’Ward. Palou’s five podium finishes are tied for the second-most this season with McLaughlin and only Will Power has more.
Palou led 31 at Nashville, but it was the first time he has led since Belle Isle, where he led lap 26 during a pit cycle. He led a lap in five of the first seven races before not leading for six consecutive races. It was Palou’s longest stretch without leading a lap since the first 12 races of his IndyCar career.
With the fourth best average finish this season at 8.1429, Palou is the only driver averaging a top ten finish this season without a victory. He also has an average starting position of 8.3571 and the only other driver averaging a top ten starting position without a victory is Felix Rosenqvist.
Palou is trying to avoid an unceremonious position in the history book, a winless defending champion, but one that is not as devastating when you find out the last defending champion to not win a race. The last time a defending IndyCar champion did to win a race was Scott Dixon in 2004. Since the CART/USAC split in 1979, the only other winless defending champions are Al Unser (1984), Bobby Rahal (1993), Nigel Mansell (1994) and Buzz Calkins (1996-97 Indy Racing League).
There is still plenty of time for Palou to get a victory. He could still match his 2021 victory total but the races are running out. The last time a defending champion took 15 races or more to get his first victory of a season was Scott Dixon, who did not win until the 15th race of the 2014 season, a year after Dixon won his third championship. The 2014 season was 18 races long, but Dixon did also win the 17th race of that season at Sonoma. Since the CART/USAC split in 1979, the only other defending champions to take 15 races or more to get their first victory of the season are Emerson Fittipaldi (15th race of 1990), Jimmy Vasser (16th race of 1997) and Gil de Ferran (17th race of the 21-race 2001 CART season).
Palou next shot at victory will be at Gateway, which would be his first career oval victory. In three Gateway starts, Palou has finished 15th, 12th and 20th. He was caught in a lap 65 accident last year, but he finished on the lead lap in both races in the 2020 doubleheader. Palou has not had a top five result on an oval since he was runner-up in the 2021 Indianapolis 500.
Road to Indy
Two Road to Indy Series join IndyCar at the 1.25-mile oval this weekend.
Indy Lights has four races remaining, but the championship is firmly in Linus Lundqvist’s control.
Lundqvist has five victories and has finished in the top five in every race of this season. With 436 points, he is 95 points ahead of Hunter McElrea, who has five consecutive podium finishes. McElrea leads the quartet of Andretti Autosport drivers in the championship, and all four are in the top five of the championship.
Sting Ray Robb has 333 points in third and Robb has nine top five finishes from ten starts. Matthew Brabham sits on 321 points after three consecutive top five finishes. Christian Rasmussen has four consecutive top five finishes and Rasmussen rounds out the top five in the championship on 302 points.
Benjamin Pedersen has not had a top five finish in the last five races after opening the season with four top five finishes in the first five races. This has dropped Pedersen to sixth on 296 points. Danial Frost is 18 points behind Pedersen. Jacob Abel has 235 points, one more than Kyffin Simpson.
Christian Bogle, Ernie Francis, Jr., Antonio Serravalle and James Roe, Jr. have all been mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
Entering Gateway, there are 216 points left on the table this Indy Lights season. After this race, only 162 points will remain available. With only 12 cars entered for Gateway and the field likely remaining at 12 cars for the remainder of the season, the top six in the championship are the last ones with a realistic chance at the championship. Regardless of number of entries, if Linus Lundqvist scores 122 points over the next four races, he will be champion.
Lundqvist had an accident in the first Gateway race last year but rallied to finish fourth in the second race. Rasmussen and McElrea were second and third respectively in last year’s Indy Pro 2000 race at Gateway. Robb has six Gateway starts over the Road to Indy series. Pedersen was third in both Gateway Indy Lights races last year.
The 75-lap Indy Lights race will take place at 4:15 p.m. ET on Saturday August 20.
Indy Pro 2000 will run its second and final oval race of the season at Gateway.
Louis Foster has won six of the last eight races and Foster has a healthy 71-point lead over Reece Gold. Foster did win on his oval debut at Indianapolis Raceway Park with Gold finishing second.
Enaam Ahmed is up to third in the championship on 257 points, 91-points behind Foster. Nolan Siegel is down to fourth on 253 points with Josh Green rounding out the top five on 239 points.
Braden Eves won last year at Gateway in Indy Pro 2000. Eves has 235 points with Kiko Porto on 222 points, 126 points behind Foster.
With a maximum 147 points remaining over the final four races only seven drivers are alive for the championship. If Foster exits this weekend with a 100-point lead, he will clinch the championship before the season ending Portland triple-header.
Indy Pro 2000 will race at 3:15 p.m. ET. The race is scheduled for 55 laps.
Fast Facts
This will be the 16th IndyCar race to take place on August 20 and the first since Will Power won at Pocono in 2017.
There has never been a repeat winner on August 20.
Team Penske has won seven of 13 Gateway races. The only other team with multiple Gateway victories is Chip Ganassi Racing with three.
Chevrolet has won six of the last seven short oval races. Scott Dixon’s victory in the first Gateway race in 2020 is the most recent short oval victory for Honda.
Andretti Autosport has not won any of the last 17 short oval races. Its most recent short oval victory was at Iowa in 2015 with Ryan Hunter-Reay. Andretti Autosport had won nine of 12 short oval races held from 2010 through 2015, which included seven consecutive short oval victories from Iowa 2011 through Iowa 2014.
The average starting position for a Gateway winner is 4.153 with a median of third.
The last eight Gateway races have been won from a top five starting position.
Twelve consecutive IndyCar oval races have been won from a top ten starting position. Ten of those 12 races have been won from a top five starting position.
Only two of the 25 oval races since the introduction of the universal aero kit have been won from outside the top ten. The first was James Hinchcliffe from 11th at Iowa in 2018 and the other was Simon Pagenaud from 23rd in the first Iowa race in 2020.
Six of 17 oval races with the original aero kit (2012-2014) and five of 17 oval races with manufacture-specific aero kits (2015-2017) were won from starting positions outside the top ten.
The average number of lead changes in a Gateway race is 8.846 with a median of ten.
Eight of 13 Gateway races have had double-digit lead changes.
Only two Gateway races have had five lead changes or fewer (three in 1998 and five in 2003).
The average number of cautions in a Gateway race is 4.461 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 39.307 with a median of 35.
There has never been a caution-free race at Gateway.
It has been 31 races since the last caution-free race in IndyCar (the second race of the 2020 Harvest Grand Prix weekend on the IMS road course).
The most recent caution-free oval race in IndyCar was the second race of the 2011 Firestone Twin 275s at Texas Motor Speedway. There have been 189 total races, 63 ovals, since the last caution-free IndyCar oval race.
There have been 13 caution-free races in IndyCar since its most recent caution-free oval race.
Last year’s race had seven caution periods, the most at Gateway since eight in the 1999 race, the third Gateway race.
Predictions
Josef Newgarden makes up for the mechanical failure in the second Iowa race and gets his fifth victory of the season. There will be a new championship leader after this race. Colton Herta will not have a mechanical failure. Romain Grosjean will have another top ten finish. Jimmie Johnson will not. There will not be an accident that takes out five cars. Alexander Rossi avoids the barrier. Graham Rahal completes more than three laps. Dalton Kellett spends zero laps in the top ten. The total number of passes will be up from last year. The race will not be joined in progress because the NASCAR Xfinity Series race goes long. Sleeper: Simon Pagenaud.
