Twenty-six races have been completed in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season, and after a whirlwind seven-month regular season, the playoff field is set.
Sixteen drivers won a race in the regular season, tied for the most winners through the first 16 races with the 1961 and 2003 seasons. Fifteen of those drivers will compete in the playoffs after Kurt Busch removed himself due to concussion-like symptoms that have kept him out of a race car since the end of July and will keep out for the first few races of the playoffs.
However, there are five past champions in this playoff field, four of which are looking for a second title. Four drivers are making their playoff debut this year.
It has been a breathtaking season as the NASCAR Cup Series calendar has been shaken up and seen events at different spots in the year and we even saw a new track in the regular season.
Those changes carry into the playoffs. There are some familiar tracks in the final ten races, but the order has been mixed up and we see it immediately in round one.
Darlington will be the first race for the third consecutive year, but Kansas moves to the second spot in the playoffs ahead of Bristol. Round two will begin at Texas before Talladega and the Charlotte roval close out the round. The semifinal round has two new tracks. Las Vegas moves to the seventh spot in the playoff order, while Homestead returns to the playoffs after being a regular season race the previous two years. Homestead will be the eighth playoff race ahead of Martinsville, the third race in the semifinal round. For the third consecutive year, Phoenix hosts the season finale.
You know the playoff schedule, but now it is time to learn about the 16 playoff drivers, what they have done through the first 26 races, how they shape up for round one and what their expectations are for the final ten weeks of the season.
1. Chase Elliott - 2040 Points
Victories: 4 (Dover, Nashville, Atlanta II, Pocono)
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 17
Darlington I Result: 5th
Kansas I Result: 29th
Bristol Average Finish: 14.4 (Zero victories, three top fives, five top tens, 11 starts)
What are his expectations: Final four.
In this season of variety, Elliott has been the one driver to standout above the rest. No other driver has more than two victories and Elliott has four. Elliott's 17 top ten finishes are three more than the next driver. His 719 laps led are 107 more than the next driver and only three drivers have led more than 500 laps this season.
All of the playoff tracks are favorable to Elliott. Round one should not be a problem. He should have won the Southern 500 two years ago, and he should have won the Bristol playoff race last year. He has won at Talladega, and he is arguably the best road course driver in NASCAR. The semifinal round would be Elliott's weakest just because he hasn't been lights out at either Las Vegas or Homestead, but he does have an average finish of ninth at Homestead. He is good at Martinsville.
Anything less than a final four appearance would be a wet blanket to a season where Elliott won the regular season championship by 130 points.
2. Joey Logano - 2025 Points
Victories: 2 (Darlington, Gateway)
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 12
Darlington I Result: 1st
Kansas I Result: 17th
Bristol Average Finish: 15.0 (Two victories, six top fives, ten top tens, 25 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four.
Logano sneakily ended up second in the regular season championship, and he was getting hot at the right time. Prior to Daytona, he had four consecutive top ten finishes, all results of sixth or better. However, in the four races prior to that run, he had four finishes of 20th or worse.
He hasn't been perfect, but he has two victories, and he has been good on the short tracks. Eighth at Phoenix, second at Martinsville and sixth in the second Richmond race.
There isn't a track in the playoffs where Logano cannot win. He has already won at Darlington, he is good at Talladega and Las Vegas, and he has won the Martinsville playoff race before. We know he will make any move necessary to win a race.
In this season, I am not sure anyone but Elliott can be considered a lock for the final four. Logano could go out and win three playoff races. He could also be bounced in the second round. One poor result can do more damage in these playoffs than in previous rounds.
3. Ross Chastain - 2020 Points
Victories: 2 (Austin, Talladega)
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 30th
Kansas I Result: 7th
Bristol Average Finish: 26.8 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, five starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, but possibly eliminated in either of the first two rounds.
For about 12 races, Chastain looked like the best driver in the Cup Series. In the last six races, Chastain had failed to finish in the top fifteen and has fallen back to Earth. The darling of the first half of the regular season, Chastain was the second multi-time winner after successes at Austin and Talladega and he had plenty of other strong runs.
But those strong runs have been fewer as of late. Chastain could turn it around and he could easily make the round of eight and sneak into the championship race, but Chastain has also made enemies with about 29 other drivers on the grid and about 14 of the other 15 playoff drivers. He will not catch a break over the final ten races. It is hard to see him getting to the championship race unless he has untouchable speed and Trackhouse has not shown that in the last few races.
4. Kyle Larson - 2019 Points
Victories: 2 (Fontana, Watkins Glen)
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 36th
Kansas I Result: 2nd
Bristol Average Finish: 13.4 (One victories, three top fives, eight top tens, 13 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four.
After a historic championship season, Larson has been pedestrian in 2022. Still good, but two victories are far from ten victories in 2021. He won the second race of the season at Fontana and then didn't win again until the penultimate regular season race at Watkins Glen.
We just saw Larson win the title. He can win anywhere. He won at Bristol, the Charlotte roval, Texas, Kansas and Phoenix last year in the playoffs. You only need to win four playoff races to win the championship. There isn't one weak spot in the playoffs for Larson. He can turn it on and pull out a second consecutive championship. He has only gone consecutive races without top ten finishes twice this year, a three-race run from Phoenix to Austin and then Gateway and Sonoma. He should be good enough to make the round of eight and then it comes down to getting one victory to make it back to Phoenix.
5. William Byron - 2014 Points
Victories: 2 (Atlanta I, Martinsville)
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 5
Darlington I Result: 13th
Kansas I Result: 16th
Bristol Average Finish: 18.1 (Zero victories, one top fives, two top tens, seven starts)
What are his expectations: Possible first round elimination, possibly round of 12
If you watched all 26 regular season races, you may be surprised to see William Byron start the playoffs as the fifth seed.
Here are Byron's numbers in the first eight races: Two victories, four top five finishes, four top ten finishes.
Here are Byron's numbers in the last 18 races: Zero victories, zero top five finishes, one top ten finishes.
Byron was the first multi-time winner this season. He hasn't finished in the top ten since ninth at Sonoma. He has finished 30th or worse in four of the last ten races. Byron has the second most laps led this season at 612 laps, but 334 of those came between the first Richmond race and first Martinsville race, two races in a seven-day span in April.
He was leading late at Darlington before Joey Logano bumped him into the wall, but between the six playoff tracks that have regular season events, only Martinsville and Las Vegas did he score top ten finishes in the regular season.
Based on his results, it is hard to see him making it out of the first round. He could put together a respectable round one and get off the snide, but it is difficult to envision of deep playoff run for Byron.
6. Denny Hamlin - 2013 Points
Victories: 2 (Richmond I, Charlotte)
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 21st
Kansas I Result: 4th
Bristol Average Finish: 14.5 (Two victories, nine top fives, 15 top tens, 31 starts)
What are his expectations: Anywhere between first round elimination to final four appearance.
Hamlin was outside the top twenty of the championship in ten of the 26 regular season races. He was never ranked better than 12th in the championship, and yet many think he is a potential championship driver.
He was one of the quickest drivers in the regular season, but in some cases the results didn't go his way, whether it be because of a penalty or an accident. There is an irregularity that Hamlin was as quick as he was and yet had only on top ten finish in the first 12 races.
Hamlin is plenty capable of making the championship four, but his results also show he could lay an egg in round one and fail to advance. Things have balanced out for Hamlin, but pit lane penalties are still a concern. He should make it through a few rounds, but it is still questionable whether he can be fast enough, clean enough and consistent enough to make a deep run.
7. Ryan Blaney - 2013 Points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 12
Darlington I Result: 17th
Kansas I Result: 12th
Bristol Average Finish: 18.7 (Zero victories, two top fives, five top tens, 12 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four.
The only winless driver in the playoffs, Blaney was third in the regular season while being tied for the fourth-most top five finishes this season. Blaney's success was front-loaded this season. Four of his eight top ten finishes came in the first nine races, as were six of his 12 top ten finishes. Even with how good he was, his best finish was third at Nashville. He didn't even have a runner-up finish in the regular season.
He led 417 laps, but 334 of those laps were in the first seven races of the season, 362 of those laps were in the first ten races and he hasn't led more than 20 laps in a race since his 23 at Talladega in April.
We have seen winless regular season drivers go on and win the championship before. Tony Stewart went 0-for-26 and then went five-for-ten on his way to his third championship in 2011. I am not sure Blaney can do that, but he could get his first victory of the season in the playoffs and turn it into more.
8. Tyler Reddick - 2012 Points
Victories: 2 (Road America, Indianapolis)
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Darlington I Result: 2nd
Kansas I Result: 30th
Bristol Average Finish: 17.3 (Zero victories, one top fives, one top tens, three starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possibly round of eight.
The long-awaited breakout of Tyler Reddick occurred this season with his first two victories coming this summer. Reddick also had a victory get away from him at Bristol in the dirt race. He likely should have won Fontana before he lost a tire while leading.
Reddick has shown good pace and he enters the playoffs with three top five finishes and four top ten finishes in the last six regular season races. It is still hard to imagine Reddick carrying the pace throughout the playoffs to make a deep run, but he should get out of the first round. With Talladega and the Charlotte roval in round two, the door is open for anyone to advance, and Reddick has already won twice on road courses. The round of eight is a realistic outcome and one great race in that round can setup a shot at the championship.
9. Kevin Harvick - 2012 Points
Victories: 2 (Michigan, Richmond II)
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 4th
Kansas I Result: 15th
Bristol Average Finish: 13.2 (Three victories, 14 top fives, 21 top tens, 41 starts)
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly round of 12 elimination.
After a lengthy winless drought, Harvick won consecutive races at Michigan and Richmond and quickly shot up many people's boards among the championship favorites. Harvick has been rather good, especially at short tracks. Four of his seven top five finishes were on tracks a mile or shorter in length.
While he won consecutive races, four of his last six results have been finishes outside the top ten. He only led 106 laps in the regular season, 93 of those laps were in his two victories. He led in only three other races, a lap at Fontana, 11 laps at Atlanta and a lap at Darlington.
History says Harvick can challenge for a championship, but results are not stellar to think he can do it again. Though he recent won two races, Harvick must be much better to contest for a second title.
10. Christopher Bell - 2011 Points
Victories: 1 (Loudon)
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 6th
Kansas I Result: 5th
Bristol Average Finish: 22.0 (Zero victories, zero top fives, one top ten, three starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12 or round of eight.
Bell had a quietly good season. He has already matched his most top five finishes in a season and his 14 top ten finishes are only two fewer than his most in a single season.
He has shown good pace on the short tracks and the first round sets up for him. He has also had good runs on intermediate tracks where Toyota has shown good horsepower. Bell might be the best Toyota driver on road courses this year. He was third at Austin and eighth at Watkins Glen. Bell should challenge for the round of eight.
11. Kyle Busch - 2010 Points
Victories: 1 (Bristol)
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 33rd
Kansas I Result: 3rd
Bristol Average Finish: 13.0 (Eight victories, 14 top fives, 19 top tens, 32 starts)
What are his expectations: Anywhere between the round of 12 and the final four.
With contract negotiations looming in the background, Busch has been good this season, but we haven't seen many standout days. His only victory was after Tyler Reddick and Chase Briscoe tangled on the final lap at the Bristol dirt race and Busch slid through for the victory, leading only the final lap. There were a few others races where he was in contention. Busch was on his way to victory at Las Vegas before the final caution mixed up the field with some teams not making pit stops while others did, Busch included.
He had good days at Dover, Gateway and Nashville. The first round shouldn't be a concern, but the second round is worrying. Outside of Texas, Talladega is a crapshoot and Toyota has been dreadful on road courses with Charlotte as the cutoff race. An average Texas race combined with a poor Talladega could doom any Toyota driver advancing from round two, Busch included.
12. Chase Briscoe - 2009 Points
Victories: 1 (Phoenix)
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 4
Darlington I Result: 20th
Kansas I Result: 24th
Bristol Average Finish: 13.0 (13th in one start)
What are his expectations: First round elimination
Briscoe stunned everyone when he won the fourth race of the season at Phoenix with 101 laps led. He was third in the championship after Atlanta, and it appeared Briscoe would disrupt the dynamic of the Cup grid and be the new face regularly at the front of the field, leading the Stewart-Haas Racing charge. However, he had one top ten finish in the final 18 races of the regular season, a fourth in the Coca-Cola 600.
Speed has been hard to find for Briscoe. He hasn't started in the top ten on an oval since his pole position at Gateway. He started second and third at Road America and the IMS road course but failed to crack the top ten in either of those races. Six of his nine top ten starting positions came in the first nine races of the season. I don't think Briscoe is a playoff worthy driver. Phoenix was an anomaly of his season.
13. Daniel Suárez - 2007 Points
Victories: 1 (Sonoma)
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 10
Darlington I Result: 10th
Kansas I Result: 33rd
Bristol Average Finish: 16.0 (Zero victories, zero top fives, two top tens, nine starts)
What are his expectations: Round of 12, but possible first round elimination
Trackhouse has come back to earth in the last ten races. Suárez scored a popular first career victory at Sonoma, and he was good in the following events with three top five finishes and five top ten finishes in the final ten races of the regular season, but he was outside the top fifteen in four of the last five races. It should also be noted that in the ten races prior to his Sonoma victory, Suárez's best finish was tenth at Darlington.
I am not sure what Suárez we will see. He could miss out on round two if he is only average. He starts the round on the outside looking in. He will need to drive at his highest level to advance, but that might not get him further than the second round.
14. Austin Cindric - 2006 Points
Victories: 1 (Daytona I)
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 8
Darlington I Result: 18th
Kansas I Result: 11th
Bristol Average Finish (Xfinity Series): 11.1 (Zero victories, three top fives, four top tens, seven starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination or round of 12.
Cindric has had a good rookie season. Five top five finishes and eight top ten finishes. There have been a few races he has held his own against the veterans. Cindric has also shown his youth and he frankly wasn't much of a factor in any of the five road course races in the regular season, but still had good results.
The Daytona 500 victory is spectacular. It has been a good season. A playoff appearance alone is a good thing. It is possible he could string together some consistency in round one, avoid accidents and advance. Then the second round is open for him to become a stunning round of eight driver should he have his best road course race of the season at Charlotte. That is unlikely.
15. Alex Bowman - 2052 Points
Victories: 1 (Las Vegas)
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 10
Darlington I Result: 29th
Kansas I Result: 9th
Bristol Average Finish: 20.5 (Zero victories, two top fives, three top tens, 11 starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination, but he could sneak into the round of 12
It has been a tale of two seasons for Bowman. Through the first 11 races he was fifth in the championship with three top five finishes and seven top ten finishes. He ended the regular season 12th in the championship and his only top ten finish in the final 12 races of the regular season was ninth at Michigan.
This team has been heading the wrong way and fast. Bowman has led 29 laps all season, 11 of those came at Daytona last week. The only other laps he led were 16 at Las Vegas after rolling the dice and not making a pit stop under the final caution, and two laps led were at Dover, his third and most recent top five finish.
In the same vein as Briscoe, Bowman really isn't a playoff worthy driver.
16. Austin Dillon - 2005 Points
Victories: 1 (Daytona II)
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 8
Darlington I Result: 9th
Kansas I Result: 13th
Bristol Average Finish: 17.4 (Zero victories, one top five, three top tens, 15 starts)
What are his expectations: First round elimination
Dillon made his way through the rain shower that took out half the field entering turn one with 25 laps remaining at the Daytona regular season finale and after a rain delay that lasted longer than the race itself, Dillon crossed the line for not only victory but a playoff spot. He entered that day 19th on points and only a victory would get him in.
He started the season strong with three top five finishes in the first ten races, including runner-up results at Fontana and Talladega, but Daytona was his first top five finish since Talladega. He had one top ten finish in the prior 13 races before his Daytona victory.
We saw Dillon string together a strong first round before and advance. He could do the same in 2022, but it is unlikely.
Playoff Predictions
First Round Eliminations:
16. Austin Dillon
15. Chase Briscoe
14. William Byron
13. Alex Bowman
Second Round Eliminations:
12. Austin Cindric
11. Daniel Suárez
10. Kevin Harvick
9. Ross Chastain
Round of Eight Eliminations:
8. Kyle Busch
7. Tyler Reddick
6. Christopher Bell
5. Ryan Blaney
Final Four:
4. Joey Logano
3. Kyle Larson
2. Chase Elliott
1. Denny Hamlin
