The 17th and final round of the 2022 NTT IndyCar Series season occurs at Laguna Seca. Five drivers head to the Northern California course with a chance at hoisting the Astor Cup as the 2022 IndyCar Series champion. Three drivers are looking to add another IndyCar championship to their résumés. Two drivers are going for their first IndyCar title. IndyCar could have its fourth different champion in four seasons, a level of parity not seen in IndyCar since 2011 through 2014. Along with the five championship contenders, 21 other drivers will take to the circuit looking to close the season with a victory.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday September 11 with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Marty Snider and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Marty Snider and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 5:30 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 1:15 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 5:05 p.m. ET
Qualifying: 5:05 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Warm-Up: 12:00 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (110 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
The Championship Picture
Will Power enters Laguna Seca with the championship lead on 523 points. Power is 20 points ahead of Team Penske teammate Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon. Marcus Ericsson is fourth in the championship, 39 points behind Power. Scott McLaughlin's victory last week at Portland has him 41 points behind Power entering the finale.
Power will clinch the IndyCar championship with a finish of third or better regardless of what any other driver does.
Newgarden or Dixon could win the championship with a victory and Power finishing fifth or worse. If Newgarden or Dixon were to win the race and score at least two bonus points, they could win the championship if Power finishes fourth but scores no bonus points. If either Newgarden or Dixon were to win the race with at least three bonus points or the maximum four bonus points, they could win the championship if Power finishes fourth with no more than one bonus point scored.
A second-place finish could still net Newgarden or Dixon the championship, but it would mean a ninth-place finish would be enough for Power to clinch the championship. If Newgarden or Dixon scored the maximum four bonus points and finished second, then Power would need to finish seventh to clinch the championship.
For Ericsson and McLaughlin, the championship will require a little more work.
If Ericsson wins at Laguna Seca, he would need Power to finish 18th or worse with no bonus points, Newgarden to finish fifth or worse with no more than one bonus point and Dixon to finish fourth or worse with no bonus points. If Ericsson won with the maximum bonus points, he would need Power to finish 15th or worse with no bonus points, Newgarden to finish fourth or worse and Dixon to finish third or worse with no bonus points.
McLaughlin must win the race to win the championship, as he cannot overtake Power on points with any form of a second-place finish.
If McLaughlin wins at Laguna Seca, he would need Power to finish 20th or worse with no bonus points, Newgarden to finish sixth or worse with no more than one bonus point and Dixon to finish fifth or worse with no bonus points. If McLaughlin won with the maximum bonus points, he would need Power to finish 18th or worse, Newgarden to finish fourth or worse with no bonus points and Dixon to finish fourth or worse with no more than one bonus point.
There is no way for Ericsson to win the championship if McLaughlin won the race.
Newgarden owns the tiebreaker over every driver with five victories. McLaughlin owns the tiebreaker over Power, Dixon and Ericsson with three victories while Dixon has won twice and Power and Ericsson have only won once.
Dixon currently owns the tiebreaker over Ericsson, but if Ericsson were to win the finale, the two drivers would be level on two victories, but the tiebreaker would switch to Ericsson's favor as he has a second-place finish while Dixon does not.
Ericsson could finish level on points with Power with a runner-up finish. It would require Ericsson to score the maximum four bonus points and Power to finish 25th or worse with no bonus points. However, in that scenario, Power would own the tiebreaker as each driver would have one victory, each driver would have finished second twice, but Power would own the tiebreaker with five third-place finishes to Ericsson's one.
Eighth place with at least one bonus point scored is the worst position either Newgarden or Dixon can finish and win the championship over Power, but that would require Power finishing 25th or worse with no bonus points.
What is at Stake for Each Driver?
Each of these five drivers have something in play when it comes to this championship, and each could set a place for themselves in history.
For Power, he is going for his second championship, eight years after his first title in the 2014 season. He would become the 27th driver with multiple championships. Power also enters this weekend fifth all-time in race victories on 41 and could tie Michael Andretti for fourth all-time if he were to end the season with a race triumph at Laguna Seca. Without a victory, but still with enough to claim the championship, Power could become the first champion with one victory or fewer since Tony Stewart in the 1996-97 Indy Racing League season.
Newgarden is aiming for his third championship, and all three would have come in the last six seasons. Newgarden would become the 13th three-time champion. He would tie Rick Mears for most IndyCar championships won for Team Penske, but Newgarden would join Ted Horn as the only three-time champions without an Indianapolis 500 victory. Newgarden has five victories, and it would be the most race victories for a champion since Simon Pagenaud in 2016. If Newgarden were to win at Laguna Seca and win the championship, he would be the first champion with six victories since Scott Dixon in 2008.
Dixon has the most history on the line. This could be his seventh championship, which would put him tied with A.J. Foyt for the most championships in IndyCar history. It has been 43 years since Foyt's seventh championship. It took Foyt 22 years from his debut until his seventh title. For Dixon, it has been 21 years since he made his debut in Monterrey, Mexico. This would be Dixon's third title in the last five seasons.
Ericsson could become the first IndyCar champion with Formula One experience prior to his IndyCar career since Alex Zanardi won the 1998 CART title. Ericsson could become the first champions whose only victory was the Indianapolis 500 since 1946. He would join Kenny Bräck as the second Swedish champion. Sweden would become the sixth country to produce multiple IndyCar champions. Ericsson will need to lead at least a lap to become champion this weekend. However, his 37 laps led would be the fewest for a champion since Scott Sharp was co-champion of the inaugural Indy Racing League season in 1996 with Buzz Calkins. Sharp led only 40 laps over that three-race season.
The only other champions since 1946 with fewer than 100 laps led in a season are Ted Horn in 1946 with 98, Henry Banks in 1950 with 12, Sam Hanks in 1953 with 57, Tom Sneva in 1977 with 59 and George Snider in the 1981-82 USAC Gold Crown season with 23.
McLaughlin could also make New Zealand the sixth country to produce multiple IndyCar champions. If either Dixon or McLaughlin won the title it would be the seventh IndyCar championship for New Zealand, putting it tied for second with the United Kingdom for IndyCar championships and only behind the United States. McLaughlin would become the 11th Penske driver to win the IndyCar championship.
The champion will either come from Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing. This will be the tenth consecutive season the champion has come from one of these two organizations. This would be Ganassi's third consecutive championship, the first time a team has won three consecutive titles since Ganassi's four-year run from 2008 to 2011.
A title for Dixon or Ericsson would be Ganassi's 14th IndyCar championship. Team Penske could leave Laguna Seca with its 17th IndyCar championship.
What Does the Season Tell Us?
Sixteen races have taken place. What can we take from the first six-and-a-half months of the season into the season finale?
Power has the best average finish this season at 6.125, slightly better than Dixon, who is averaging a 6.375. Ericsson has the third best average finish this season at 8.0 while Newgarden is at 8.5625 and McLaughlin is at 8.9375.
Newgarden leads in victories but Power leads in podium finishes with eight and top five finishes with 11. It is Dixon who enters Laguna Seca with the most top ten finishes, 15 from the first 16 races. Newgarden has won on three ovals, a street course and a road course. Half of Power's podium finishes have been on natural-terrain road courses while Dixon has only four podium finishes all season. Ericsson has only three podium finishes this season. McLaughlin is second to Power on podium finishes with seven, three of which were on ovals.
Things spread out when it comes to average starting position. Newgarden leads all of IndyCar with an average starting spot of 5.5. McLaughlin is second amongst the five championship eligible drivers at 6.875 with Power averaging an 8.0625. Dixon and Ericsson both average worse than a top ten starting position. For Dixon, it is by a hair at 10.938 while Ericsson is at 11.813, 12th best among the regular IndyCar competitors.
Newgarden has started in the top ten of seven consecutive races and in 14 of 16 races this season. Hs worst starting position was 14th in the Indianapolis 500 and at Mid-Ohio. Power has six consecutive top ten starts, five of which have been top five starting positions, and four of those have been front row starts.
Dixon has only two top five starts on road/street courses this season. He started fifth at Mid-Ohio and second at Toronto. He has started outside the top ten in five of the last six races. Ericsson has started outside the top ten in nine of 16 races. McLaughlin has nine top ten starts in the last ten races, six of which are top five starts. He has started in the top ten in 13 of 16 races with his three non-top ten starts being the two Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course races and the Indianapolis 500.
Newgarden leads IndyCar with eight Firestone Fast Six appearances, but he is one of five drivers to make the second round of qualifying on ten occasions. Power and McLaughlin are two of those other four drivers with ten second-round appearances. Dixon and Ericsson have both made it out of the first round of qualifying seven times this season, but each driver has made the Fast Six only twice. Both did it at the Indianapolis 500, Ericsson did it at Road America and Dixon did it at Toronto.
Power and Dixon have completed every lap this season with 2,173 laps run. On four occasions has a driver completed every lap in a season. The first to do it was Tony Kanaan in the 2004 Indy Racing League season. Simon Pagenaud was the next to do it in 2017 and Newgarden and Dixon did it in 2020 as they went 1-2 in the championship. In Power's 2014 championship season, he competed 2,394 out of 2,395 laps. The only lap Power did not complete that season was in the first Houston race where he finished 14th, tied for his worst finish that season.
The three Penske drivers are the top three drivers in laps led. Newgarden has led the most, 522 laps with McLaughlin second on 433 and Power in third on 318 laps led. Dixon is fourth in laps led on 177 while Ericsson has led 37 laps, tenth in IndyCar.
Newgarden and Power are tied for the most races led this season, each having led in nine. McLaughlin has led a lap in eight races, including the last four. Dixon has only led a lap in five races, four street courses and the Indianapolis 500. Ericsson has also only led a lap in five races, three ovals, the IMS road course and Road America.
If you remove the two Iowa races, Newgarden has still led 166 laps this season, but only 28 of those have been on natural-terrain road courses, 26 at Road America on his way to victory and two at Barber Motorsports Park.
Spoilers
While Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing, have their sights set on the championship, there are nine other teams and 21 other drivers running at Laguna Seca hoping to end the season with a victory and some hardware of their own.
For the first time possibly all season, Andretti Autosport enters a race weekend as a favorite. Colton Herta has won the last two Laguna Seca, an undefeated record for the American at the track. In two starts, Herta has two victories, two pole positions and he has led 174 of 185 laps. Herta is the only driver with two top five finishes in the last two Laguna Seca races. He is one of six drivers with consecutive Laguna Seca victories, and he could join Bobby Rahal as the only drivers with at least three consecutive Laguna Seca victories this weekend.
Herta will be the man to beat, but Alexander Rossi should be a challenger for the race victory as well. Rossi has started third and second in the last two Laguna Seca races, but he lost ground in the 2019 race as strategy played out. Last year, Rossi was running side-by-side with Herta entering turn five on the opening lap before slight contact spun Rossi off track and he lost a lap before his car could be restarted.
It has not been a great season for Romain Grosjean, but Laguna Seca could be the perfect place for him to wrap up his season. Grosjean went from 13th to third in last year's race and he led four laps during pit cycle, the only driver other than Herta to lead.
Álex Palou will not make it consecutive championships, but he has a chance to end the season with a victory. Palou had an impressive drive last year at Laguna Seca and he kept the margin close between him and Herta. In the final stint, Palou closed the gap to 1.975 seconds over Herta at the finish.
Arrow McLaren SP does not have a driver in the championship battle, but it has two drivers in the top ten of the championship, and one of which is looking for his first victory in over two years. Patricio O'Ward leads the AMSP effort, but he is seventh in the championship. O'Ward has finished fourth in the last two races. He has not had three consecutive top five finishes yet this season. O'Ward was fifth in last year's Laguna Seca race.
Felix Rosenqvist currently sits tenth in the championship, but he could finish as high as eighth in the championship. Rosenqvist had an impressive drive in the 2019 Laguna Seca race going from 14th to sixth. However, last year was a step in the wrong direction, dropping from 15th to 19th.
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is looking for its first victory since the 2020 Indianapolis 500, and it is heading on a wave of momentum after Portland. Graham Rahal scored his second top five finish this season and Christian Lundgaard spent much of the race in the top ten. Rahal was fourth last year at Laguna Seca after starting 12th. Along with Bobby Rahal's four victories as a driver, the team has three more victories. Bryan Herta won the 1998 and 1999 races and Max Papis won there in 2001.
Super License Points
There is more than the championship on the line at Laguna Seca. With IndyCar drivers now regularly in the conversation for Formula One opportunities, this season finale could go a long way into deciding who has a future in the world championship and who does not, as the top ten drivers in the championship will be awarded Super License points.
The IndyCar champion will receive 40 Super License points, enough to automatically qualify for a Super License and race in Formula One. Second in the championship will get 30 points while third and fourth get 20 points and 10 points respectively. Fifth will receive eight points with six points going to sixth. Seventh will earn four points while eighth, ninth and tenth will get three points, two points and one point respectively.
Forty points is what is necessary to qualify for a Super License, but those 40 points must come from the best three seasons over the last four years. This best-three-in-four-year provision was put in after the 2020 season was disrupted due to the pandemic.
Twelve drivers could leave Laguna Seca with Super License points scored from this weekend.
At the present moment, Newgarden, Dixon and Palou will all leave Laguna Seca with over 40 points. They are the last three champions, and their championships will carry for another season. Newgarden has also scored 30 points in each of the last two seasons for finishing second, meaning he has an additional 60 points carrying over. Dixon has an additional 20 points and Palou has 15 points from the 2019 Super Formula season where he finished third that will carry over.
Power enters the weekend below 40 points and he is due to lose 20 points for finishing third in the 2018 season this weekend. A top two championship finish will ensure Power will be over 40 points after the 2022 season.
McLaughlin has 45 points based off his three championship seasons in Supercars from 2018 through 2020. He will lose 15 points as his 2018 Supercars title will no longer count toward Super License points. He must finish fourth or better in the IndyCar championship to maintain on or above the 40-point threshold.
The 2018 Indy Lights season has been a source of questions ever since O'Ward's brief time in the Red Bull driver program. At the current moment, that season is in question with Herta's potential inclusion into the Red Bull program. Originally, it was ruled the 2018 Indy Lights season did not count due to lack of entries, meaning O'Ward does not get 15 points for the championship, nor does Herta get 12 points for being second that season.
With those points off the board, O'Ward and Herta are both on 30 points and neither driver would be dropping a points total at the end of this seaosn. O'Ward would need to crack the top four to reach the 40-point threshold, a possible yet difficult task as O'Ward is 28 points behind Ericsson for fourth in the championship. Herta can finish no better than eighth in the championship, meaning the most Super License points he can earn from this season is three points.
Rossi has 52 points based on his best three seasons from the last four years, but he will be dropping his 30 points for his runner-up finish in the 2018 IndyCar championship. The most points Rossi can earn is three points for eighth. Rossi's recent Formula One experience could keep make him exemption from the Super License point system
Rosenqvist only has 12 Super License points and will drop six points for his sixth-place finish in the 2017-18 Formula E season. The best Rosenqvist can do in this championship is three points for eighth.
Rahal and VeeKay are the two drivers currently outside the championship top ten that could earn Super License points. Rahal enters with 13 points but will drop three. He is 27 points behind Rosenqvist for tenth in the championship. Rahal could finish as high as eighth.
VeeKay has 22 points based on Indy Lights and Indy Pro 2000 results, but he will drop ten points from his 2018 Indy Pro 2000 championship. VeeKay is 45 points behind Rosenqvist in the championship. In theory, VeeKay could get as high as eighth in the championship, but the only way he can crack the top ten is with a race victory.
Indy Lights
Linus Lundqvist did not close out the Indy Lights championship at Portland last week, but all he needs to do is start one of the two races over the Laguna Seca doubleheader and the 2022 championship will be his.
Lundqvist has five victories this season, nine podium results and he has finished in the top five in all 12 races. Lundqvist will become the first HMD Motorsports driver to win an Indy Lights championship and this title will snap Andretti Autosport's streak of three consecutive championships in the series.
Lundqvist will be the first European champion since Tristan Vautier won the 2012 title, and Lundqvist will be the first Swedish champion.
Matthew Brabham's run of five consecutive top five finishes has him second entering the final weekend on 412 points, 11 points ahead of Andretti Autosport teammate Hunter McElrea, who has seven consecutive top five finishes. Brabham and McElrea are the only other drivers with multiple victories this season besides Lundqvist.
It has tightened up for fourth in the championship. Sting Ray Robb sits on 389 points, three ahead of Benjamin Pedersen, who is fresh off his first career Indy Lights victory last week at Portland. Christian Rasmussen is 40 points outside the top five while Danial Frost has 330 pains in seventh.
Jacob Abel is coming off a fourth-place finish in Portland and has 293 points. Kyffin Simpson sits on 276 points. Ernie Francis, Jr. has 263 points, seven points ahead of Christian Bogle.
Indy Lights will race at 3:20 p.m. ET on Saturday September 10 and the final race of the Indy Lights season will be at 12:55 p.m. ET on Sunday September 11.
Fast Facts
This will be the eighth IndyCar race to take place on September 11 and first since Dan Wheldon won at Chicagoland in 2005. Wheldon clinched the 2005 championship that day with two races remaining. It was the last time an Indy Racing League/IndyCar Series championship was decided before the season finale.
Sunday will be Rinus VeeKay's 22nd birthday. VeeKay could become the tenth IndyCar driver with a birthday victory. The most recent was Dan Wheldon at Iowa on June 22, 2008.
Rinus VeeKay would be the youngest birthday winner at 22 years old. The current youngest birthday winner are Lou Moore, Sam Hornish, Jr. and Scott Dixon, who all won on their 27th birthday.
This will be the tenth time Laguna Seca has hosted the IndyCar season finale. Since 1979, no track has hosted a season finale more than Laguna Seca.
In the previous nine Laguna Seca finales, the championship leader entering the weekend left Laguna Seca as the champion.
In four of those nine years, the championship had been clinched prior to Laguna Seca (Emerson Fittipaldi 1989, Al Unser, Jr. 1990 and 1994, Nigel Mansell in 1993).
In the five years the title was undecided entering Laguna Seca, the championship leader extended the gap with Michael Andretti doing it in 1991 and Jimmy Vasser doing it in 1996.
In the five years the title was undecided entering Laguna Seca, the championship leader extended the gap with Michael Andretti doing it in 1991 and Jimmy Vasser doing it in 1996.
In 1992, Bobby Rahal entered Laguna Seca with a 12-point lead over Michael Andretti, but the final championship margin was four points as Andretti finished second and Rahal was fourth. In 1995, Jacques Villeneuve had a 16-point championship lead entering the race over Al Unser, Jr. and the final championship margin was 11 points, as Unser, Jr. finished sixth and Villeneuve finished 11th. In 2019, Josef Newgarden entered with a 41-point lead over Alexander Rossi, but the final championship margin was 25 points over Simon Pagenaud in second and 33 points over Rossi in third.
In the last six seasons the championship leader entering the finale has held on to win the championship. The last time the championship lead changed after the final race was 2015 when Scott Dixon won the championship over Juan Pablo Montoya, who had led the championship after every race entering the final race at Sonoma.
The average starting position for a Laguna Seca winner is 2.541667 with a median of one.
Sixteen of 24 Laguna Seca races have been won from pole position. Twenty of 24 Laguna Seca races have been won from the front row. Twenty-two of 24 Laguna Seca races have been won from a top three starting positions.
The other two Laguna Seca races were won from sixth in 1997 with Jimmy Vasser and from 25th in 2001 with Max Papis.
The average number of lead changes in a Laguna Seca race is 3.08333 with a median of three.
There have been six Laguna Seca races with no lead changes.
The average number of cautions in a Laguna Seca race is 1.75 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps is 7.25 with a median of 7.5.
Six Laguna Seca races have had no cautions, but the last caution-free Laguna Seca race was in 1997, ten Laguna Seca races ago.
Six Laguna Seca races have had three cautions or more.
The most cautions in a Laguna Seca race is eight in 2001 and the most caution laps is 29, which also came in 2001.
The most cautions in a Laguna Seca race is eight in 2001 and the most caution laps is 29, which also came in 2001.
Predictions
Scott Dixon wins the race. Scott Dixon wins the championship. Andretti Autosport drivers provide an assist, as will Álex Palou. Josef Newgarden finishes fifth. Will Power finishes seventh. A Team Penske driver does not score fastest lap. Romain Grosjean will have one of his best races of the season and not go off course. Christian Lundgaard will take Rookie of the Year honors, but he will not be the top Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing finisher. Jimmie Johnson will be in the way and provide a strategic advantage for his teammates. Ed Carpenter Racing and Meyer Shank Racing will not see any of its cars suffer mechanical issues. There will be at least one notable pass into the corkscrew. At least one driver will get his or her best finish of the season. Sleeper: Felix Rosenqvist.
