Enea Bastianini snapped Francesco Bagnaia's MotoGP winning streak at four races with a last lap pass at Aragón. Fabio Quartararo went out on lap one. Ducati clinched the World Manufactures' Championship. Marc Márquez made his MotoGP return. Colton Herta will not be getting a Super License and Red Bull is no longer interested. The saga that was 2022 IndyCar silly season is over. Álex Palou will remain at Ganassi. Felix Rosenqvist will remain at Arrow McLaren SP. All that noise for no movement. Palou did get to test a McLaren Formula One car at Barcelona, as did Patricio O'Ward. People got upset they couldn't see a party they weren't invited to. NASCAR and Goodyear should have probably done more testing. Jimmie Johnson raced Mr. Bean... and Mr. Bean won. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.
2022 IndyCar Predictions: Revisited
Normally, the Monday after the IndyCar season is when we revisit the preseason predictions made on New Year's Eve the year before, but with the Super License situation around Colton Herta and the brainstorming I had done about how the system could be better and recognize more drivers, that iron was hot and I had to strike and get that out first. Revisiting predictions is mostly regurgitation with a minimal amount of research. It isn't the most mentally taxing exercise.
1. Scott Dixon will be the top Ganassi finisher in at least seven races
Correct!
Dixon was the top Ganassi finisher in seven races, but at the start of this season this prediction looked to be in serious jeopardy.
Dixon was not the top Ganassi finisher in any of the first six races, meaning he would need to go at least seven-for-11 to fulfill this prediction, a hit rate of 63.63%. He was close in those early races, being the second-best Ganassi finisher five times.
He got on the board at Belle Isle with his third-place finish, but he was the second-best Ganassi driver in the next two races, meaning he had to finish going six-for-eight, a hit rate of 75%.
Dixon went on a run. Five consecutive races as the top Ganassi finisher starting with his victory at Toronto through his victory at Nashville. He was then again the second-best Ganassi finisher at Gateway before hitting number seven at Portland.
In 17 races, Dixon was either the best Ganassi finisher or the second-best Ganassi finisher 15 times.
2. Andretti Autosport will have multiple top ten finishers in at least eight races
Correct!
But this was closer to be incorrect than you would have thought. Andretti Autosport had multiple top ten finishers in exactly eight races. The eighth race was Laguna Seca.
Where did Andretti have multiple top ten finishers?
St. Petersburg: Colton Herta and Romain Grosjean (fourth and fifth)
Long Beach: Grosjean and Alexander Rossi (second and eighth)
Barber: Grosjean and Rossi (seventh and ninth)
Belle Isle: Rossi and Herta (second and eighth)
Road America: Rossi, Grosjean and Herta (third, fourth and fifth)
Nashville: Rossi and Herta (fourth and fifth)
Portland: Herta and Rossi (sixth and seventh)
Laguna Seca: Grosjean and Rossi (seventh and tenth)
It was looking pretty good through the first eight races and then it went to hell at Mid-Ohio when the team was poised for three top ten finishers only for Rossi and Grosjean to run into each other, Herta's team to blow the pit strategy and then more contact between the teammates with even Devlin DeFrancesco getting in on the action.
The team did fulfill the prediction at the last possible moment in the season, the tenth-place finisher crossing the line at the season finale. It had some insurance at Laguna Seca as Herta was 11th behind Rossi in tenth. But doesn't that provide a clear representation for Andretti Autosport's season? It didn't even have multiple top ten finishers in half the races this season and it was nearly a little worse than that.
3. There will be at least three first-time winners
Wrong!
This prediction was looking good after the first race of the season when Scott McLaughlin scored his first career victory. At that point, we were technically on pace for 17 first-time winners this season. This prediction must have come true without much stress, right?
No. In fact, McLaughlin was the only first-time winner all season. Romain Grosjean was second at Long Beach, but never got to the top step of the podium. Jack Harvey had a dismal season and barely saw the top ten let alone a shot at a race victory. Christian Lundgaard was close in the second IMS road course race, but could not catch Alexander Rossi. David Malukas was probably the next closest possible first-time winner we saw this season with his runner-up result at Gateway to Newgarden. Jimmie Johnson didn't get close on an oval. Conor Daly wasn't really close anywhere. Callum Ilott was good, but not in contention for race victories. Kyle Kirkwood had a rookie year to forget.
Ironically, McLaughlin won three times this season.
4. Team Penske will not lose a race in the final five laps due to a mechanical issue
Correct!
At least not in the final five laps. Team Penske did lose at least one race this season due to mechanical failure, but it was with 66 laps to go in the second Iowa race when Josef Newgarden had a right rear suspension failure while dominating.
But the heartbreak didn’t come as late for Team Penske as it did last year on multiple occasions. Penske did win nine races this season, the top team in victories. That second Iowa race is really the only race that got away from the team.
5. Patricio O'Ward will lead the most laps in at least two races
Wrong!
This was a surprise. For all the speed we have seen from O'Ward and success, it was bound to happen this year. He even won twice, but he leaped ahead of Rinus VeeKay late at Barber Motorsports Park and O'Ward only led the final 27 laps there. Then there was the second Iowa race where Newgarden broke with 66 laps to go. O'Ward cleaned up from there leading to the finish.
But that was it. He led 165 laps this season, but he only led 26 laps at the Indianapolis 500, 28 laps at Mid-Ohio from pole position before a fuel pressure issue ended his race. Then he led a smattering of laps in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis (five), Toronto (three) and Gateway (ten).
That dominant day did not come from O'Ward this season, though he pushed for a shot at the championship into the penultimate race of the season.
6. Simon Pagenaud and Hélio Castroneves average greater than 12.0 in final championship position
Correct!
And neither Meyer Shank Racing finished in the top 12 of the championship at all. Pagenaud ended up 15th and Hélio Castroneves was 18th. That is an average of 16.5.
I never saw Castroneves getting inside the top 12. The top fifteen was kind of the limit for Castroneves. But I could envision a world where Pagenaud could get into the top eight through consistency. That consistency wasn't there. It was one week on and two weeks off for the MSR group in 2022. The team could not find its stride in the final races of the season and the team regressed in its first year with two full-time cars.
7. Ed Carpenter Racing will not have a top ten finish drought longer than six races
Correct!
The season started well for Ed Carpenter Racing. The team was actually on a top ten streak. It had a top ten finisher in five of the first six races of the season.
Rinus VeeKay was sixth and tenth in the first two races. In race four, VeeKay was third from pole position at Barber with 57 laps led. At Indianapolis, Conor Daly was fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and then sixth in the Indianapolis 500.
The team had a two-race dip before VeeKay was fourth at Mid-Ohio. Neither car finished in the top ten at Toronto before VeeKay was fourth in the first Iowa race with six races remaining after that. All the team needed was one top ten finish from there and this prediction would be correct. It came in the second IMS road course race when VeeKay was sixth.
Unfortunately for ECR that was the team’s last top ten finish of the season and it ended the year on a four-race skid. Better than last year but not much better.
8. The rookie drivers will combine for fewer than four podium finishes
Correct!
There were two rookies to finish on the podium this season. Christian Lundgaard was second in the July race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and David Malukas was second at Gateway.
This prediction did go to the wire because Callum Ilott started on the front row at Laguna Seca and Malukas started seventh. If somehow two rookies wound up on the podium in the finale it would have flipped this prediction. Enough happened in IndyCar this season to not rule that out.
But Lundgaard was the top rookie in fifth at Laguna Seca, Malukas lost positions, Ilott retired, and DeFrancesco and Kyle Kirkwood were nowhere close to the podium. The rookies had a good year, but couldn't match the veteran knowhow of the IndyCar grid.
9. There will be consecutive winners on at least two occasions
Wrong!
And this one was close to being correct. Three races in and we had one pair of consecutive winners down. We nearly had it down in two races. If Scott McLaughlin would have been able to hold the lead off the final corner of Texas he would have opened the season with consecutive victories, but Josef Newgarden made the pass on the outside of turn four to take the win.
Which allowed Newgarden to become the first consecutive race winner in the next race at Long Beach. There were 14 more chances for this to happen. The most notable case was Iowa. Newgarden dominated race one and was on his way to another dominant victory in race two before his right rear suspension failed while leading.
McLaughlin was our final hope in the season finale, but he wasn't quick enough. As competitive as IndyCar is, it is surprising how rare consecutive race winners happen, at least that has been the case the last few seasons.
10. No race will have more than 35% of its laps under caution
Wrong!
We had two races with more than 35% of the laps under caution, in fact, both those races had more than 40% of its laps under caution.
The first was the changing conditions in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Thirty-one of 75 laps were under caution, 41.333%.
That was bad enough, but the conditions played a hand into it. It happens.
Then IndyCar returned to Nashville and somehow ran more laps under caution than last year. Thirty-six out of 80 laps were behind the safety car in Nashville, 45% of the laps. Ugh.
11. Jimmie Johnson will be involved in 0.25 cautions or fewer per start
Wrong!
Johnson's second season saw him contest all the IndyCar races, ovals included, and while he got to visit all of the road/street courses for a second time, things didn't quite get better than last year.
The first caution for Johnson came at Long Beach when he and David Malukas got together in turn eight with ten laps to go. That meant Johnson had three more cautions to burn. He burned a second in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis when he spun in the changing conditions. Two burned with 12 races remaining. That pace wasn't promising.
Then Johnson caused the penultimate caution in the Indianapolis 500 with six laps to go! We were so close to making it through this race. One caution left and 11 races. Not a great picture.
We made it one more full race without a caution before Johnson spun on the opening lap at Road America. That is it! Johnson reached his limit through eight races. He couldn't be involved in another caution in the final nine races for this prediction to be correct.
He escaped Mid-Ohio unscathed and actually had his best road/street course finish up to that point in what was arguably his best road/street course weekend.
But then Johnson and Kirkwood got together at Toronto. That's it. Over! Prediction wrong. Doesn't matter how many more he got. For kicks and giggles, Johnson caused the first caution in the first Iowa race when he straddled the apron in turn four and lost the car. He made it two full races before he had a hard accident at Nashville. Then he and VeeKay got together at Portland and Johnson hit the barrier at the end of the front straightaway approaching turn one.
That is eight cautions from 17 starts, an average of 0.4705 cautions per start. Slightly better than his 0.5 cautions per start, but basically identical to last year.
12. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's qualifying average will be 12.5 or under
Wrong!
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing didn't find its qualifying form in 2022. This prediction was in trouble from the opening three weekends.
Its best entry at St. Petersburg was Graham Rahl in 11th. None of the three cars qualified better than 24th at Texas. At Long Beach, Rahal was the best started in 13th. Things saw minor improvement over the next two races. Rahal was the top qualifier in ninth at Barber while all three cars started in the top fifteen. All three cars started in the top 12 for the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. There was promise.
Then all three cars started outside the top twenty for he Indianapolis 500 with Christian Lundgaard and Jack Harvey both on the last row. That didn't kill this prediction, but it was clear the team wasn't going to get close to it.
RLLR didn't have a car start in the top fifteen in two of the next three races. Things did see a boost in the next seven races. RLLR had at least one top ten started in six of the next seven races, but the team did have seven cars starting outside the top fifteen in that span.
Overall, the team's average qualifying position this season was 16.1764. Not really close to being correct. This prediction was dead before we even reached the season finale. If RLLR had gone 1-2-3 in qualifying at Laguna Seca, the average would have only dropped to 15.196.
What needed to be done for this prediction to be correct? RLLR had to go 1-2-3 over the final six races of the season to get below 12.5. That was never going to happen.
Six for 12. An improvement over last year, but still with more room for growth.
2021: 4/12
2020: 8/11 (one prediction was about Richmond, which never happened)
2019: 5.5/12
2018: 6/12
2017: 8/12
2016: 6/12
2015: 8/12
2014: 10/14
Champions From the Weekend
You know about Ducati, but did you know...
The #32 Belgian Audi Club Team WRT Audi of Dries Vanthoor and Charles Weerts clinched the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship with a third-place finish in the first race of the weekend from Valencia. The #32 Audi capped the weekend and the seaosn with a victory in the second Valencia race.
Raffaele Marciello clinched the GT World Challenge Europe championship with finishes of seventh and third from Valencia.
Winners From the Weekend
You know about Enea Bastianini, but did you know...
Chris Buescher won the NASCAR Cup race at Bristol, his first Cup victory since August 1, 2016. Noah Gragson won the Grand National Series race, his sixth victory of the season and his third consecutive victory. Ty Majeski won the Truck race, his first career victory.
Pedro Acosta won the Moto2 race from Aragón, his second victory of the season. Izan Guevara won the Moto3 race, his fourth victory of the season.
The #3 NDDP Racing Nissan of Katsumasa Chiyo and Mitsunori Takaboshi won the Super GT race at Sportsland SUGO. The #2 meta Racing INGING Toyota of Hiroki Katoh and Yuki Tsutsumi won in GT300.
The #53 AF Corse Ferrari of Pierre-Alexander Jean and Ulysse De Pau won the first GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup race from Valencia.
Coming Up This Weekend
MotoGP returns to Japan for the first time since 2019.
NASCAR is at Texas.
European Le Mans Series' penultimate round at Spa-Francorchamps.
Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters' penultimate round at the Red Bull Ring.
GT World Challenge America's penultimate round at Sebring.
World Superbike will be at Barcelona.
