There are now 51 days until the NTT IndyCar Series season opener from St. Petersburg, and Andretti Autosport will be looking for an improvement. It has been ten seasons since Andretti Autosport's most recent championship. Its best driver in the 2022 championship was ninth. The team won twice, both on the same circuit. It hasn't won on a oval in over four years.
Once considered one of IndyCar's best three teams, Andretti Autosport looks like just another IndyCar team and doesn't necessarily appear close to returning to the top of the IndyCar mountain. For 2023, three drivers are returning to the Andretti lineup while a sophomore shuffles into the quartet. It will be one of the team's most inexperienced lineups entering an IndyCar season.
At First Glance... It is difficult to fathom how Andretti Autosport is this uncompetitive but the expectation remain high
When combining an Indianapolis 500 winner and driver who had twice nearly been champion, a driver with six career victories before his 50th career start and a sophomore who had three podium finishes as a rookie joining a championship-winning organization, you would expect it to be one of the most dangerous trios in IndyCar. That was not the case for Andretti Autosport in 2022.
The Alexander Rossi/Colton Herta/Romain Grosjean combination did not take the series by storm, and what could have been a forceful grouping for seasons to come splintered after year one, leaving Herta and Grosjean as Andretti's leading duo.
It should be much better for Andretti but the team cannot remain on course, both literally and figuratively. It coughed up more races than it won in 2022 and that has been a common theme over the last few seasons. The team won two races last year. The year before that it was Herta carrying the entire organization. In 2020, the team had one victory.
This is a shell of a championship contender. Herta is responsible for five of Andretti's six victories since the start of 2020. This team used to be three drivers deep and regularly producing a title challenger. Now it is over a decade removed for its last title and it does not look any closer entering the 2023 season than it was when 2022 ended.
Rossi was the best driver in the team last year and ninth in the championship. Herta clung to tenth for his life. Grosjean was fractionally better as a full-time driver than he was running only the road and street courses until sampling Gateway with Dale Coyne Racing in 2021. This is a team that has lost its way, but it is difficult to fathom it will be better.
On the verge of turning 23 years old, Herta is now expected to be the leader of a team with a driver entering his third IndyCar season and two sophomore drivers who have a combined one top ten finish in their careers. To be fair, Herta has done everything asked of him, but some times he does it with too much weight on his shoulders. He has won in every one of his full-time seasons. He has never finished outside the top ten in the championship. He really needs a team that can support his abilities.
Andretti's greatest sin entering 2023 is it doesn't feel like enough changes have been made to make sure the team is moving in the right direction. Strategy choices cost the team. The team has devolved from oval masters dominating the field to dogs chasing their own tails. When things went wrong for the team it went wrong for all of its entrants. That should not be as frequent as it was for a team of Andretti's magnitude.
On the surface, it is a championship team. It is a winning team. It is a threat at the Indianapolis 500. It is one of IndyCar's "Big Three." But Andretti Autosport doesn't fit that mold entering 2023. We shouldn't expect more than average out of this group, even if all the pieces tell us otherwise.
2022 Andretti Autosport Review
Wins: 2 (Grand Prix of Indianapolis, July IMS road course race)
Poles: 3 (Long Beach, Road America, Toronto)
Championship Finishes: 9th (Alexander Rossi), 10th (Colton Herta), 13th (Romain Grosjean), 23rd (Devlin DeFrancesco)
Colton Herta - #26 Gainbridge Honda
Numbers to Remember:
17.8: Average finish in oval races in 2022
1: Top ten finish in the last nine oval races
18.4: Average finish in races following a top five finish in 2022
What does a championship season look like for him?
All the best parts of Colton Herta congealing into what is otherwise a perfect season. It starts with the oval form being respectable, getting the car to the finish and finishing every time in the top ten, mostly in the top five and finally have a good day in the Indianapolis 500.
On top of his best oval season ever, Herta's blistering street course pace remains and is flawless. Top five starting positions in every street course race leading to regularly street course podium finishes. That pace also carries over to the road courses, and Herta is always making the final round of qualifying and in position for a stellar result.
Herta would likely need a career best in victories, probably at least four, with somewhere between eight and ten podium finishes, and he could not afford more than two finishes outside the top ten.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
This championship season is realistic for Herta. It is a dream, but one that is achievable. But history suggests there will be a handful of races where it doesn't work out either because Herta overdrives the car, which could put him in the barrier, or the team gets the strategy wrong, costing him handfuls of positions. A driver can still be champion with those performances, but they must be limited.
Top ten is the minimum. Herta can pull out a top five championship run, but it must come off the back of regular top five finishes. A championship would mean winning at a greater rate than he has achieved in his IndyCar career. A victory or two will not be enough.
Kyle Kirkwood - #27 AutoNation Honda
Numbers to Remember:
14: Consecutive starts without a top ten finish entering 2023
14: Races ranked outside the top 20 in the championship in 2022, including after the final eight races
1: Lead lap finish in the final nine races of the 2022 season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Repeating his Road to Indy form. Stunning pace in qualifying, maintaining it through races and being untouchable over 17 events. All the good stuff Kirkwwod did in 2022 must be multiplied by about 30 and all the bad stuff he did erased from the record. There cannot be one mistake, no off-road excursions, no stepping over the limit while running competitively.
Kirkwood would be leading the way for Andretti Autosport, but likely have at least Herta on his heels. The two would combine to give Andretti Autosport the most victories in the 2023 season, both would likely have a shot at the title entering the finale, but Kirkwood would carry the advantage, likely off the back of a Mid-Ohio triumph which coincided with one of Herta's few bad days, but just enough to give Kirkwood the edge and enough to hold on through Laguna Seca.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Better than 2022, but after all the struggles Kirkwood went through, it is difficult to project how much higher he could go. Ahead of the 2022 season, everyone would have pegged Kirkwood to knock down some doors driving for Andretti Autosport. After a woeful year at A.J. Foyt Racing, we are trying to figure who Kirkwood is as a driver.
Part of the issues was Kirkwood's own aggression. He must rein in his talent. Too many times he threw away races. Hopefully, he has a handle on that in 2023, but I still expect a few races to get away from him. There will be weekends he is in new positions fighting with drivers he didn't know were on the same track as him the year before. That could spook him. That could lead to mistakes. The top fifteen in the championship is the bare minimum with semi-regular top ten finishes and a few top five results.
Romain Grosjean - #28 DHL Honda
Numbers to Remember:
9: Races without a top five finish to close the 2022 season
2: Races was the longest top five finish drought for Grosjean in the 2021 season driving for Dale Cyne Racing
3: Laps led in 2022
6: Drivers to run at least 70% of the races in 2022 and lead fewer laps than Grosjean (Christian Lundgaard, Hélio Castroneves, Devlin DeFrancesco, Dalton Kellett, Jack Harvey, Simon Pagenaud)
What does a championship season look like for him?
Two victories on the IMS road course, another victory on a street course and significantly improved street course and oval results that see him competing for the best in the Andretti team each time out. There would not be any slumps stretching on for two or three or four races at a time. If there is a bad day, Grosjean immediately responses and has five better finishes to counterbalance the poor result.
A championship for Grosjean would mean he is the clear leader in the team. He would be the team leader in qualifying. He would be the team leader in races. The laps led total would exceed 200, maybe even push 300. The Frenchman would be one of the leaders if not the leader in podium finishes. Every race he would be in the mix and he would be mentioned on nearly every broadcast.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
At least taking Alexander Rossi's spot as Andretti Autosport's second driver in the top ten of the championship. He should have more than three top five finishes and he should have a few in the second half of the season. There could still be difficult days, but not for months at a time.
There wasn't really a race in 2022 where it felt Grosjean should win. He was close at Long Beach, but he really shouldn't have won that one. He should have won the 2021 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. We know Grosjean can hold his own in IndyCar. There is bound to be a race where Grosjean nails it, is one of the quickest through every session and it turns into a triumphant trip to the top step of the podium. He can win, but piecing together 17 races for a championship still feels like a stretch. Somewhere in the top ten, maybe even breathing down Herta's neck is more likely.
Devlin DeFrancesco - #29 PowerTap Hydrogen Honda
Numbers to Remember:
0: Top ten finishes in 2022
0: Top fifteen finishes in the first 11 races of the 2022 season
3: Top fifteen finishes in the final six races of the 2022 season
0: Times as the top rookie finisher in 2022
What does a championship season look like for him?
A complete reverse of 2022. Instead of starting the season with three consecutive finishes outside the top twenty, 14 consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen and his best finish all season being 12th, it begins with three consecutive podium finishes, 14 consecutive top ten results and his worst finish being 12th. DeFrancesco would be the top Andretti finisher and qualifier at Indianapolis. He would sweep the Iowa doubleheader and win at Toronto for good measure.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Marginally better than 2022. DeFrancesco wasn't horrendous last season, but let's not mistake his season for something that needs maturing into beauty. He was the fourth Andretti driver by some distance last year and Andretti Autosport wasn't particularly brilliant.
But DeFrancesco took steps over his rookie season. He can continuing taking steps forward and have better days, but those don't necessarily mean he will be living in the top ten and leading the charge for Andretti Autosport. He can step into the top twenty in the championship and do it with a few top ten finishes, but not much more than that.
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race.
