Down to 45 days until the 2023 NTT IndyCar season opener and we come to a team whose driver lineup is approaching an average age of 45 years old. Meyer Shank Racing is still relatively new to IndyCar, but it has been around long enough and shown enough signs to expect big things from the organization. After slowly growing into IndyCar, 2023 will mark its second season as a multi-car team full-time. Year one with two cars left much room for growth, and in an ever increasingly competitive IndyCar, success is pivotal for this group.
At First Glance... Meyer Shank Racing is one year away
In what was a season of expansion and excitement in taking the next step, MSR's 2022 season was rather a dud. One top five finish. One driver in the top fifteen in the championship. MSR rarely established itself at the front, and MSR could not become something greater despite having two of the most consistent drivers on the IndyCar grid.
For 2023, there have been no changes in the driver lineup, and expectations should be set accordingly. Simon Pagenaud is still a good driver. Hélio Castroneves is in the final days of his career. Until another driver is paired with Pagenaud, MSR is going to be stuck in the middle of the field, and any hope of significant improvement will have to wait until 2024.
The pieces are there for MSR to be a contender, but Castroneves' Indianapolis 500 victory two years ago was an aberration. He can still pull off a result like that at Indianapolis and hold his own on ovals, but after four years away from full-time competition, IndyCar left Castroneves behind. Tied to the name and the history, MSR elevated Castroneves to a full-time driver, but that wasn't the right choice for constructing a dangerous two-car team.
Pagenaud had a good start to 2022, ranked in the top ten of the championship through the second Iowa race, but he began to fade late in the season, and so did the entire team. MSR is set for a hungry young driver to prove himself. In a time when Dale Coyne Racing brought Álex Palou over from Super Formula, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing snagged Christian Lundgaard from Formula Two, and Juncos Hollinger Racing plucked Callum Ilott from across the pond, MSR should already have its young talent in the stable. The team is easily two years behind its contemporaries.
MSR has the potential to replicate its sports car success. Pagenaud hasn't lost it. He is sneaky old though, as the Frenchman turns 39 years old this May, but he still has a few good seasons left in the bank. To maximize those years, he should have a teammate at least close to equal ability. One splash and MSR could be winning races. That doesn't feel likely in 2023. At St. Petersburg, this will be the oldest team on the grid. Change will be coming soon and it is paramount to get it right.
This is going to be a lost season, and all eyes should be on 2024.
2022 Meyer Shank Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 2nd (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
Poles: 0
Best Start: 3rd (Belle Isle)
Championship Finishes: 15th (Simon Pagenaud), 18th (Hélio Castroneves)
Simon Pagenaud - #60 SiriusXM/AutoNation Honda
Numbers to Remember:
0: Laps led in 2022
4: Finishes outside the top 20 in the final seven races in 2022
8: Finishes outside the top 20 in Pagenaud's 192 starts prior to that stretch
What does a championship season look like for him?
Pagenaud starting out the year as one of the best qualifiers, making the Fast Six or at least challenging for it. He will go forward from those starting positions and find himself in the top five and finishing on the podium. The pit crew will be accountable and not cost him any positions. An early victory would go a long way, but more importantly he would need a strong Indianapolis 500, scoring qualifying point while at least finishing in the top ten, preferably in or close to the top five.
As the second half of the season approaches, he would likely need another victory but continue regularly finishing in the top five. Iowa would have to be a flawless weekend. To close the season, a third victory in the final races would cement his grasp on the title and he would close with a few top five finishes.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Top ten isn't out of the question, but it will be difficult. MSR has to only repeat what went well in 2022 and not have a handful of races where it is outside the top twenty and looks incapable of achieving more than that. I think a few of those dreadful days could linger, but not be as numerous as we saw at the end of last season.
Pagenaud has the ability to finish on the podium. It comes down to the car he is provided. I think it is a stretch, but the team can find the pace to pull off multiple top five finishes. There are going to be good days where Pagenaud is in the top ten and feels inspired, but there will still be those weekends he is qualifying 15th and only getting to 11th or 12th. A year with a handful of top five finishes and eight to ten top ten finishes feels adequate.
Hélio Castroneves - #06 SiriusXM/AutoNation Honda
Numbers to Remember:
17.176: Average finish in 2022, worst in a full season since his rookie season in 1998
8: Consecutive finishes outside the top ten
0: Top five finishes, the first time Castroneves did not have a top five finish in a full season
What does a championship season look like for him?
Castroneves finding the fountain of youth and winning his fifth Indianapolis 500. The Brazilian would have to rediscover his qualifying form that has seen him amass 50 pole positions already and start piling up pole positions from the first race of the season. From those pole positions, he would need to be living in the top five, almost mirroring Will Power's start to the 2022 season.
An Indianapolis 500 victory would be the springboard to his season, and with his fast start, it could provide distance from the pack, allowing for an off day or two without those being detrimental to his campaign. Another victory would be critical, and it would come just when it appeared he was faltering. The second half would still see a consistent run of form, no bad days, not giving an inch to the competition. He would head into the finale needing only a top 12 finish to clinch the title and come home in eighth at Laguna Seca to take a long-awaited title.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
None of that. The fifth Indianapolis 500 is the most likely of those outcomes. Castroneves has something special at 16th & Georgetown, and as we have seen experience goes a long way at the 2.5-mile oval. He may be on the verge of 48 but the skill on that circuit has yet to fade.
It is everywhere else that is the problem and 2023 will probably look a lot like 2022. Mostly finishes outside the top ten, long days on the road and street courses and frequently being second in the MSR camp. There will be a few bright spots. He will turn in the occasional gem of a day taking a 19th starting position and turning it into a ninth or tenth through excellent strategy and smart decisions on track, but those days will be few and we will have to treasure them when they come. It could be worse than last year, as tough as that is to imagine. He should cling to the top twenty in the championship, but it could be closer than any of us would ever have imagined for Castroneves.
The 2023 NTT IndyCar Series begins on Sunday March 5 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBC and Peacock will have coverage of the race.
