Monday, January 9, 2023

Musings From the Weekend: Open Enrollment

Eli Tomac fell from the lead, went down to fifth about eight seconds, and still won the Supercross season opener from Anaheim by nearly four seconds. The Dakar Rally enters its final week, but it begins with the rest day. A 61st car was added to the 24 Hours of Daytona entry list. The World Rally Championship has retired the #43. Chicagoland Speedway will get some use in 2023. Pietro Fittipaldi will have a full-time ride in LMP2. Michael Cannon has left Chip Ganassi Racing for Dale Coyne Racing. Andretti Global and General Motors are partnering in a combined effort to enter Formula One with the Cadillac name. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Open Enrollment
Only a day before Andretti Global and General Motors announced its partnership to join Formula One, FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem stated he was looking to work with the existing Formula One teams to create a process for new teams to enter the series. As the series has seen an explosion in popularity over the last few years, it is only natural that there will be more interested suitors joining the grid. 

Audi has already announced its intention and will take over Sauber when it joins in 2026. Porsche was in conversations with Red Bull to work on the engine program starting in 2026, but that deal fell apart. Ironically, the latest manufacturer in talks with Red Bull to brand its engines is Ford Motor Company, the same Ford Motor Company that sold Jaguar F1 to Red Bull after the 2004 Formula One season. 

Andretti has been making the waves the longest. Since late 2021, Andretti has openly expressed an interest to join the Formula One grid. At first, there was a possible takeover of Sauber, but that deal was scuttled quickly. Since the spring 2022, Andretti has stated it would start its own team, which has been received with resistance from much of the Formula One grid. 

Despite commitments to build a new facility in the United States and pairing with the sixth largest auto manufacturer in the world, Andretti is still facing hurdles from most teams. McLaren and Alpine have been open to making room at the table. The problem is if Andretti is at the door, more are bound to come. 

The current ten Formula One teams are comfortable with the slice of pie they are getting. One more team and that will mean a smaller slice for the rest even if the slices are growing. While the Formula One teams work together, they do not have complete control of the series. They can make it quite difficult, but the money isn't theirs. It goes through Liberty Media and is then doled out. The teams are not in control like in the Premier League or NFL, where each member decides how much gets and how many are in the league. The money goes through Liberty Media and the Concorde Agreement determines how the funds are distributed. 

Andretti is only the tip of the iceberg. More teams are going to express interest and put together bids. The Formula One team cannot say no to everyone. Simultaneously, not everyone can purchase an existing team, nor will the existing teams want to sell. With such an impasse bound to arise, someone will have to give, and it must be the teams. 

It can only be a closed loop for so long. It is understandable why the teams do not want to give up a cent, but eventually they will. The suitors will have too much power to turn down and could actually increase exposure and value to the series. It could be the Formula One teams are holding out that Andretti will get tired of waiting and move on, but the fire power is now there to suggest Andretti and General Motors will not go away until it is on the grid. 

As everything else in Formula One expands, the number of races, the number of spectators, the number of television viewers, the number of teams will only naturally eventually increase. Unlike those other categories, teams are not guaranteed to be successful. A successful race in terms of an event is much easier to pull off and all the teams are winners in said circumstance. Teams don't want other teams to succeed. No one wants to make it easier on a newcomer. Success for a new team takes away from those who have been fighting for years for better results. 

What is wrong with a larger Formula One grid? 

There was an era of small teams filling out the grid. Some found occasional success. Others were rather dreadful. Some became sympathetic favorites. However, the last time Formula One saw mass expansion, it blew up. It didn't help that these teams had been promised a budget gap ahead of the 2010 season. When the FIA went back on the cap, Hispania, Virgin and Caterham were all significantly behind in the bank account and could not keep up, as the existing teams continued spending as they had been for many years prior. That was the same year USF1 was dead-on-arrival and never made it to the grid. 

Engines will be any issue for any new teams. Those 2010 teams all jumped onto the returning Cosworth power unit, one that was woefully uncompetitive compared to the rest of the power plants. There are only four power units on the current grid. They could all refuse to supply any new team. There is a way to prevent anyone being refused an engine.

In 2023, the four engine manufacturers will not be equally represented on the grid. Mercedes has four teams, the factory outfit, McLaren, Williams and Aston Martin. Ferrari is taking care of itself, Haas and Alfa Romeo. Red Bull's RBPT engine is in its car and AlphaTauri. Alpine is the only Alpine-powered team.

In 2026, the current four makes will remain on the grid while Audi plans on building its own engine and Honda registered to be a possible manufacturer. One way to ensure enough opportunities is requiring each engine manufacturer to supply at least two teams. With six manufacturers, that would mean at least 12 teams on the grid, two more than the current moment, but two would only be the minimum. Mercedes and Ferrari could each continue fielding more than the required two. All of a sudden, there could be 15 teams on the grid. 

Current FIA regulations stipulate no more than 26 cars can start a Formula One race, and I doubt any team will want to fail to qualify, but, as we have seen other things change around the Formula One world, grid size could be another. We have seen new requirements for track limits, runoff, fencing, garage size, curbing,  starting grid space and more. And, again, we have seen more races, more viewers and more sponsors. In the mid-2020s, isn't it conceivable the maximum grid size could increase to 28 or 30 cars and allow more teams to compete? 

Not everyone is going to come in and be Mercedes or Red Bull, but should the grid be limited? Shouldn't there be more independent teams that can take a crack at it? Shouldn't more manufacturers be allowed to compete if they so desire? 

The more the merrier they say. The existing teams might not be excited, but many would be thrilled to see another two to ten teams on the grid. It doesn't have to be like the late 1980s and early 1990s when a bunch of small teams were there just hoping to be marginally competitive. It doesn't have to be a grid of Osella, Coloni, EuroBrun, Onyx, Rial and Zakspeed, but there are plenty of capable teams out there, and capable drivers who deserve a crack at Formula One. At first, it could be Andretti with General Motors, but down the road it could be Prema Racing, WRT, or some Saudi oil magnate looking to start his own team. 

A crossroads is in Formula One's future. Pressure will only increase as more teams look to enter the series. The current teams may not like it, but they have no choice to make room for others. On the flip side, it would be in the FIA's best interest to make sure any new team has a fighting chance and access to a developed engine. 

Andretti is only the beginning, and the FIA has already invited others to join the party. It will only get more difficult from here for the current teams.  

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Eli Tomac, but did you know...

Dakar Rally update:

Bikes: American Skyler Howes is a minute and 13 seconds ahead of Argentine Kevin Benavides and fellow American Madison Klein. Toby Price is a minute and 58 seconds backhand less than three minutes also cover Pablo Quintanilla and Adrien Van Beveren and Daniel Sanders and Joan Barreda are both within eight minutes of Howes.

Quads: Alexandre Giroud has an hour and 23-minute lead over Francisco Moreno and an hour and 41-minute lead over Manuel Andújar. American Pablo Copetti is fourth, an hour and 42 minutes back.

Cars: Nasser Al-Attiyah is an hour and three minutes clear of Henk Lategan. Lucas Moraes is third, an hour and 20 minutes back. Sébastien Loeb is fourth, trailing by an hour and 52 minutes. 

Light Prototypes: Belgium's Guillame De Mévius leads Americans Austin Jones and Seth Quintero by three minutes and 19 seconds and an hour and two minutes respectively.

SSV: Rokas Baciuška is four minutes and 34 seconds ahead of Marek Goczał with Eryk Goczał five minutes and 48 seconds behind.

Trucks: Aleš Loprais leads Martin van den Brink by 16 minutes and 17 seconds. Janus Van Kasteren is 38 minutes and three seconds off the lead. 

Coming Up This Weekend
The conclusion of the Dakar Rally.
Supercross goes north to Oakland
Formula E season opener from Mexico City.
The 37th Chili Bowl.
The 18th Dubai 24 Hour.
The series formerly known as the Toyota Racing Series returns as Formula Regional Oceania at Highlands Motorsport Park.