Thursday, March 23, 2023

2023 MotoGP Season Preview

There will be a few notable changes in MotoGP this year. Suzuki is gone. Riders have changed teams. There are a few new races, but the biggest change will be in the weekend format. 

The 2023 season sees the introduction of sprint races, which will be held on the Saturday of each race weekend. There will be two practices on Friday before qualifying on Saturday morning. Qualifying will set the grid for both the sprint race and the grand prix on Sunday. 

Each sprint race will be 50% of the grand prix distance and the top nine riders will be awarded the following points: 12-9-7-6-5-4-3-2-1. 

The maximum number of points that can be scored in 2023 is 777 points. The first batch of points will be awarded this weekend for the 75th season of grand prix motorcycle racing.

Schedule
There will be a 21-race calendar, which includes two new venues this season. 

Portimão opens the season this weekend on March 26 and it is the first of six stretches with consecutive races. One week after opening in Portugal, round two will be in Argentina. The United States hosts the third round of the season on April 16 at Austin before Jerez closes out the month of April. 

The only race in May will be the French Grand Prix at Le Mans on May 14. In June, there will be three consecutive races. Mugello hosts the Italian Grand Prix on June 11, a week before the German Grand Prix from the Sachensenring and the Dutch TT from Assen rounds out that stretch on June 25. The first of two new races is the final race before the summer break. It is the Grand Prix of Kazakhstan on July 9 from Sokol International Raceway. 

After a month off, the British Grand Prix from Silverstone welcomes back MotoGP to competition on August 6. MotoGP hits the halfway point on August 20 at the Red Bull Ring for the Austrian Grand Prix. The summer European swing ends with a back-to-back, first with Barcelona on September 3 and then Misano on September 10. 

The inaugural Indian Grand Prix will be on September 24 from the Buddh International Circuit, which hosted three Formula One races from 2011 to 2013. The Japanese Grand Prix will be on October 1 at Motegi. The South Pacific swing will be three consecutive races starting at Mandalika in Indonesia on October 15. MotoGP will go south to Phillip Island for the Australian Grand Prix on October 22 before running at Buriram on October 29. 

The final three races will be in three consecutive weekends in three distinctly different parts of the world. Malaysia hosts the antepenultimate round on November 12. The Qatar Grand Prix moves to the penultimate weekend of the season on November 19 before the season finale in Valencia on November 26.

Teams
Ducati Lenovo Team
Francesco Bagnaia: #1 Ducati Desmosedici GP23
What did he do in 2022: Win the world championship on 265 points with seven victories and ten podium finishes despite retiring from five of 20 races.

What to expect in 2023: Bagnaia topped the Portimão test and the Ducatis swarmed the top of the leaderboard. Bagnaia nearly took himself out of the championship picture last year, but the sheer pace and his ability got him out of the hole. He will not always be that lucky. He cannot have four retirements in the first ten races again and expect to win the world championship, especially if the other Ducati riders are on point. Bagnaia is going to win a handful of races, but he will see more competition from within the Ducati camp.

Enea Bastianini: #23 Ducati Desmosedici GP23
What did he do in 2022: Won three of the first seven races on a year old bike, but only won once more over the final 13 races and had a total of six podium finishes in 20 races, leaving him third in the championship on 219 points. 

What to expect in 2023: After the season Bastianini had on a year-old bike, moving to the factory team should make him an even greater threat. He was slower than Bagnaia on each day at Portimão. That will be his greatest obstacle this season. Though Bagnaia is prone to the occasional mistake, he is blindingly quick. If Bagnaia doesn't stumble, it will be difficult for Bastianini to keep up. 

Red Bull KTM Factory Racing
Brad Binder: #33 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2022: Binder was the top rider in the championship without a victory. The South African had three runner-up finishes, including bookending his season in the runner-up spot. Binder was sixth in the championship on 188 points, scoring points in 19 of 20 races including in 15 consecutive events.

What to expect in 2023: KTM appears to be as confusing as ever. In testing, the bike wouldn't look that threatening one session. The next it would have a rider in the top ten. It is tough to pinpoint where KTM will be this year. I expect a step back. The factory team will drop from second in the Teams' championship. Binder could fall out of the top ten in the championship. If he can finish in the points for all but one race again, he could get the top ten, but I think he will not match that hit rate and miss out.

Jack Miller: #43 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2022: Miller beat Binder for fifth in the championship by a point with Miller scoring one victory and seven podium finishes but finishing outside the points five times. 

What to expect in 2023: Miller moves from Ducati to KTM and a drop is imminent. He will not be on the podium as regularly as he was the previous two seasons. He isn't going to be in the top five in the championship. He will have the same fight as his teammate just to stay in the top ten. Miller also will ride the bike over the limit and cost himself points. Those incidents hurt more when a rider isn't finishing on the podium seven times a season. 

Aprilia Racing
Maverick Viñales: #12 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2022: Viñales took 11th in the championship on 122 points with three podium finishes but he failed to score points in five races and finished outside the top ten in five other events. 

What to expect in 2023: Aprilia showed good pace in comparison to the Ducatis in testing, and Viñales was much closer to his teammate Aleix Espargaró than what we saw over 2022. Not long ago it appeared Viñales was on the verge of being world champion before it all went sideways at Yamaha, and mostly at Viñales' own making. He has matured since getting booted out. His results should be better this year, he should push Espargaró for best in the organization, and a victory is not out of the question.

Aleix Espargaró: #41 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2022: Espargaró scored his first career MotoGP victory in Argentina and he had a four-race stretch where he finished third in all of them. He had ten top five finishes and was fourth in the championship on 212 points.

What to expect in 2023: Last year, Espargaró rode with remarkable consistency, but the pace faded in the second half of the season and it cost him at least one spot in the championship. I don't think he will have the same flying start that we saw in 2022. There will still be plenty of races where he is at the front, but Espargaró is going to face more pressure from within the Aprilia squad. He could fall out of the top five in the championship, but still have a handful of podium finishes and a victory or two.

Prima Pramac Racing
Johann Zarco: #5 Ducati Desmosedici GP23
What did he do in 2022: Take eighth in the championship on 166 points with four podium finishes, but that first MotoGP victory remains elusive.

What to expect in 2023: Zarco showed good pace in testing and he had good runs last season, but he just cannot find a way to get that first MotoGP victory. Everything is aligning for that to happen in 2023. He is on the right bike, riding for a team that is capable of winning races. He can have one of those races where it all clicks and he finishes on top, but it is not a guarantee. He should be around eighth in the championship again.

Jorge Martín: #89 Ducati Desmosedici GP23
What did he do in 2022: Won five pole positions, including three on the spin to close out 2022, but Martín did not win while standing on the podium four times, and he retired from five races. He was ninth in the championship on 152 points.

What to expect in 2023: The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of MotoGP, Martín is either not in the mix or right at the front. At any race weekend he could be competing for a victory or be 13th and forgotten about. Last year, he and Zarco were nearly identical in the championship. They both get there different ways. If Martín maximizes his best days, he should be the top Pramac rider and could pick up another victory.

Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP
Fabio Quartararo: #20 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he do in 2022: Fall 17 points of successfully defending his championship. He won three races but had three retirements while only standing on the podium eight times.

What to expect in 2023: Quartararo again was miles clear of his Yamaha teammate Franco Morbidelli in testing. Quartararo is going to be at the front and taking the fight to Bagnaia and the Ducatis as he hopes to reclaim the championship, but it will be a one-horse fight for Yamaha as its two riders are going to be at the opposite ends of the grid more times than not.

Franco Morbidelli: #21 Yamaha YZR-M1
What did he in 2022: Finish in the top ten in only two races with his best result being seventh in the second race of the season, a mixed weather race in Indonesia. This placed Morbidelli 19th in the championship on 42 points.

What to expect in 2023: It is difficult to imagine how the last two seasons could have been any worse for Morbidelli, and yet, it appears 2023 is going to be another step backward. I am not sure where the Morbidelli of 2020 went, but we are not going to see him at any point this year from the looks of it. If that is the case, he will likely not get another year in this organization.

Gresini Racing MotoGP
Fabio Di Giannantonio: #49 Ducati Desmosedici GP22
What did he do in 2022: Won pole position in Mugello but his best finish was eighth at the Sachensenring and failed to score points in 14 races. He was 20th on 24 points.

What to expect in 2023: Last year, Gresini performed above expectations with Bastianini, and that could be the case again. It is unlikely a Gresini rider will crack the top three in the championship, but it can score a healthy amount of points and be fighting for podium finishes, possibly be in the fight for a victory. Di Giannantonio should improve from 2022. He should be closer to the top ten in the championship and at least crack the top five in a few races.

Álex Márquez: #73 Ducati Desmosedici GP22
What did he do in 2022: Score points in 13 races with his best finish being seventh and he had four top ten finishes, but it only put Márquez 17th in the championship on 50 points. 

What to expect in 2023: Perhaps the most pleasing surprise from testing was Álex Márquez's pace. He was regularly quicker than Di Giannantonio. On occasions he was quicker than Bastianini on the factory bike. I don't think Márquez is going to win three races and be the sleeper for the championship, but in three MotoGP seasons he has two podium finishes and three top five finishes with championship finishes of 14th, 16th and 17th. I think he will get more than three top five finishes this season alone and sneak into the top ten in the championship. At worst, he will have his best MotoGP championship result. 

Mooney VR46 Racing Team
Luca Marini: #10 Ducati Desmosedici GP22
What did he do in 2022: After having no top ten finishes in the first six races, Marini had ten top ten finishes in the final 14 races, including three top five results, putting him 12th in the championship on 120 points.

What to expect in 2023: Both VR46 riders looked strong in testing, but they are on the year-old bike. Last year, the year-old Ducati had its days where it still was the best horse out there, but at the end of the season, the newer Ducati was clearly the better bike. Both VR46 riders should make leaps forward. The both should be competing for top ten in the championship. Marini should get on the podium at least one, possibly a few times. If there are multiple podium visits, one could see him on the highest step.

Marco Bezzecchi: #72 Ducati Desmosedici GP22
What did he do in 2022: Finish as the top rookie, 14th in the championship on 111 points with Bezzecchi's best finish being second in Assen. He had three other top five finishes, including a pair of fourth-place results in the final three races. 

What to expect in 2023: Bezzecchi looked better than Marini in testing, but they are close. Is there a world where they take points off of each other and neither looks that spectacular? Sure, but Bezzecchi could make a run for a victory this season. There is a good chance he leaps Marini for top VR46 rider in the championship. 

Repsol Honda Team
Joan Mir: #36 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2022: Riding for Suzuki, Mir was 15th in the championship and missed four races due to injuries sustained in the Austrian Grand Prix. He had three top five finishes over the entire season and only scored 87 points. Mir was on pace to finish 15th in the championship even with his missed races. 

What to expect in 2023: Mir had a rough 2022 season. Suzuki is gone and he is moving to a Honda team that is a bit lost. The bike doesn't look great. Marc Márquez is having trouble finding speed. The good news for Mir is he was right around Márquez throughout testing. However, it doesn't look like Honda will be competing for podium finishes. This could be a fight just to make it into the championship top ten.

Marc Márquez: #93 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2022: Missed eight races due to injuries, two because of a concussion and six due to arm surgery midseason. He was second at Phillip Island and he had five top five finishes in 12 starts with 11 top ten finishes and one retirement. He scored 120 points to finish 12th in the championship, averaging ten points per start, or on pace for fifth in the championship. 

What to expect in 2023: With Márquez, nobody knows. His results look good enough to be one of the top riders in the championship, but he has not stayed on the bike for an entire season since 2019. He misses a handful of races and it costs him about seven to ten spots in the championship. This year in testing, Márquez, and Honda in general, looked disappointing. This is the first time it feels like Márquez cannot work his magic and wind up at the top of the championship or at least be on pace for a top spot. It is Márquez. There will be one or two races he pulls out a podium finish, most likely if it rains, but it will be rare to see him fighting for victories this year.

LCR Honda Idemitsu/Castrol
Takaaki Nakagami: #30 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2022: Missed three races due to finger surgery, but he had four top ten finishes all season and had only 48 points, 18th in the championship. 

What to expect in 2023: Nakagami was at the bottom consistently in testing. His championship position has dropped the last two seasons. It seems likely to drop for a third consecutive season and it could fall off substantially from 2022 as well. 

Álex Rins: #42 Honda RC213V
What did he do in 2022: Won two of the final three races and he had four total podium finishes. Despite a five-race stretch without scoring a point, he was still seventh in the championship on 173 points.

What to expect in 2023: Rins was running competitive times compared to the factory Hondas and he was close to his past Suzuki teammate Mir. Rins could have a good goal just to beat Mir in the championship and at least win himself some brownie points. If the factory Hondas are not going to be competing for victories, Rins isn't either. Top ten in the championship looks to be a stretch. 

RNF MotoGP Team
Raúl Fernández: #25 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2022: In his rookie season, Fernández scored 14 points putting his 22nd in the championship with two missed raced due to a hand injury, and his best finish was 12th in Germany and Valencia.

What to expect in 2023: It wasn't only the factory Aprilias that were competitive in testing. RNF's two riders kept up as the team switched from Yamaha in the offseason. I don't think either RNF Aprilia will be fighting for victories regularly, if at all in 2023, but the team should score more than the 37 points it had last season. Fernández should beat the 14 points he amassed, and he should have a few races where he is contending for the top five. 

Miguel Oliveira: #88 Aprilia RS-GP
What did he do in 2022: Oliveira won in mixed conditions in Mandilika and then won in Buriram, but he had three more top five finishes all season. He did score points in 13 consecutive seasons to close the season and it got him tenth in the standings on 149 points. 

What to expect in 2023: I just said RNF likely will not be competing for a race victory at any point in 2023, but it also has Oliveira, who for the past three seasons has made a name for himself winning races seemingly out of nowhere. We cannot rule it out, especially if there is a wet race. His consistency will help the team score points. Top ten in the championship is a stretch, but if Oliveira cracks the top fifteen, it will be a successful year for RNF.

GasGas Factory Racing Tech3
Augusto Fernández: #37 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2022: Fernández won the Moto2 championship with four victories, nine podium finishes, 15 top five finishes and 17 top ten finishes in a 20-race season with 271.5 points scored. 

What to expect in 2023: Tech3 has taken on new branding, but it is still a KTM bike. Fernández will be the lone rookie on the grid this season. I think it will be difficult to score points. Tech3 wasn't that far off the factory KTM team, but it wasn't consistently at the front. There is a good chance Fernández will top his veteran teammate.

Pol Espargaró: #44 KTM RC16
What did he do in 2022: Riding for Honda, Espargaró was third in the opening round, but then had one top ten finish in the final 19 races of the season. This left him 16th in the championship on 56 points. 

What to expect in 2023: Espargaró moves to Tech3 after a disappointing time with Honda. The results are not going to be better here. There will still be frustration. His best results will be cracking the top ten and not doing much better than that. 

Practice begins at 6:45 a.m. ET on Friday March 24 for MotoGP with the second session taking place at 11:00 a.m. ET. On Saturday, there will be a final practice at 6:10 a.m. before the first round of qualifying at 6:50 a.m. with the second round at 7:15 a.m. 

The inaugural sprint race take place at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday March 25. The Portuguese Grand Prix opens the 2023 season on Sunday March 26 at 9:00 a.m.