The second round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season is at Texas Motor Speedway, the first of five oval races this season. Only twice since reunification has the winner of the first oval race of the season gone on to win the championship. In both cases that oval race was the opening race of the season, and in both cases Scott Dixon was the race winner. The winner of the first oval race has finished in the top five of the championship in ten of the last 15 seasons and finished in the top ten of the championship in 13 of 15 seasons. The last nine champions were in the top ten of the first oval race of the season, seven of which had a top five finish. This will be the longest IndyCar race ever held at Texas Motor Speedway. The race has increased to 250 laps, two laps more than last year. Eight Texas races were ran to 248 laps in distance. Twenty-eight cars are entered for this year's Texas race, the largest field since 30 cars entered the 2011 Texas doubleheader.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday April 2 with green flag scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Dave Burns will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Dave Burns will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Saturday:
First Practice: 9:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 12:15 p.m. ET
Second Practice: 1:45 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Final Practice: 2:30 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 12:10 p.m. ET (250 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 12:10 p.m. ET (250 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
Advantage Chevrolet and Team Penske
Oval races have been Chevrolet's playground for most of the DW12-era but especially over the last few seasons. Chevrolet won four of five oval races last season, leading 1,017 of the 1,258 laps, and the American manufacturer has won six of the last nine oval races.
Team Penske is responsible for most of those victories, winning four of those six, and Josef Newgarden has won all four. Newgarden won three oval races last season, the first driver with three oval victories in a season since Scott Dixon in 2009. Newgarden's ten oval victories is the most in the DW12-era. The next closest driver is Newgarden's Penske teammate Will Power, who has won eight times in the last 59 oval races, but Power has not won on an oval since Pocono 2019.
The 2022 oval champion was Patricio O'Ward. With 226 points, O'Ward took top spot with his victory in the second Iowa race being the high-water mark for the Mexican. O'Ward had top five finishes in each of the final four oval races last season, starting with a runner-up finish in the Indianapolis 500. O'Ward is the only non-Penske Chevrolet driver to win an oval race in the last 31 oval races. His first career victory was the second race of the 2021 Texas doubleheader.
Newgarden, Power and O'Ward combine for Chevrolet's last eight oval victories, but the bow-tie brigade has ten other drivers on its bench looking to earn a victory.
Scott McLaughlin has been knocking on the door of his first career oval victory. In three Texas starts, McLaughlin has finished second twice, including last year when he led 186 laps only to be passed off the final corner when Josef Newgarden made a move around the outside stick and took victory by 0.0669 seconds. McLaughlin's average finish of fourth is the best among drivers with at least three Texas starts. McLaughlin was on the podium in three of five oval races last season with a pair of thirds in the second Iowa race and at Gateway. In nine oval starts, he has four podium finishes and five top five results.
Felix Rosenqvist started on the pole position last year at Texas but a halfshaft problem ended Rosenqvist's race after completing 138 laps. He did pick up his first career top five oval finish last season when he was fourth at Indianapolis. Alexander Rossi had eight podium finishes in his first 16 oval starts. However, in Rossi's last 20 oval starts, he has only two podium finishes, a runner-up in the 2019 Indianapolis 500 and a runner-up in the following race at Texas. His only other top five finish on an oval since 2019 was fifth in last year's Indianapolis 500.
Ed Carpenter Racing has not won an oval race since Iowa 2016 with Josef Newgarden. ECR will field three cars this weekend with Ed Carpenter joining Rinus VeeKay and Conor Daly. In 12 Texas races, ECR has one victory, three top five finishes and five top ten finishes out of 20 starts.
A.J. Foyt Racing has its home race with Santino Ferrucci and Benjamin Pedersen as its drivers. Ferrucci has finished fourth, 21st and ninth in his three Texas starts. Foyt has two top ten finishes in the last 12 Texas races and it has not had a top five finish at Texas since Airton Daré was third in the June 2002 race behind Jeff Ward and Al Unser, Jr.
Juncos Racing will have Callum Ilott competing in his sixth career oval start, and Agustín Canapino making his oval debut. Ilott is coming off his first career top five finish at St. Petersburg, and his best finish on an oval last season was 11th in the second Iowa race.
Honda's best hope is Scott Dixon. Dixon is responsible for three of the last six Texas victories. With five total victories at the 1.5-mile oval, the New Zealander leads all drivers. He is also the only driver to have led more than 1,000 laps at the circuit. His 1,043 laps led are more than double the next closest driver. Hélio Castroneves is second with 507 laps led at Texas. In 24 Texas appearances, Dixon's average finish is 7.041, fifth best among drivers with at least three starts. He has four consecutive top five finishes at the track.
Castroneves has four Texas victories, but we are nearly ten years removed from his most recent one. He has retired from his last two Texas starts after retiring only once in his first 19 races at the facility. The only other Honda driver entered with a Texas victory is Graham Rahal, who won the 2016 race in a Honda 1-2 finish over James Hinchcliffe by 0.0080 seconds. Rahal has five top five finishes in the last eight Texas races. He had only one top five finish in his first eight starts at the track.
Since reunification, Chevrolet holds a narrow edge in Texas victories, leading Honda seven to five.
Andretti's Stumble Out of the Gates
Coming to the green flag for the St. Petersburg season opener, Andretti Autosport had three cars in the top five. When the checkered flag waved 100 laps later, Andretti Autosport's best finisher was Kyle Kirkwood in 15th.
All four of Andretti's entries were involved in an accident at St. Petersburg. Romain Grosjean was taken out after contact with Scott McLaughlin after McLaughlin emerged from the pit lane after his final pit stop. Grosjean was looking at a possible victory, and at worst a podium finish. Colton Herta was nudged into the turn eight barrier from Will Power's front wing. Kirkwood climbed over Jack Harvey's car in turn four only for Kirkwood to be able to continue in the race. Devlin DeFrancesco was caught in the opening lap incident and was vaulted into the air when Benjamin Pedersen slammed into the side of DeFrancesco's stationary vehicle.
Prior to his accident, Grosjean led 31 laps, second most in the race behind only McLaughlin. Andretti Autosport led only two laps over the final four races of the 2022 season. Both laps led came at Gateway and Grosjean was responsible for each. Herta has not led a lap since his car broke down while leading the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course last July. In 2022, Andretti Autosport led five of 1,258 oval laps run. Along with the two laps Grosjean led at Gateway, Marco Andretti led three laps during the final pit cycle in the Indianapolis 500.
St. Petersburg was the fourth time in the 18 races since the start of the 2022 season Andretti Autosport failed to produce a top ten finisher. Andretti Autosport had only five such occurrences over the 81 races held between 2017 and 2021.
One of those races where Andretti Autosport failed to have a top ten finisher in 2022 was Texas. In 2022, out of 21 oval entries, Andretti Autosport had one top five finish and three top ten finishes. The team had eight oval finishes outside the top twenty.
Herta's best oval result was 11th. In 20 oval starts, Herta has two top five finishes and six top ten finishes. Grosjean was the only Andretti driver with multiple oval top ten finishes last season, coming home seventh and ninth at Iowa. DeFrancesco's best oval finish last season was 12th at Gateway. Driving for A.J. Foyt Racing, Kirkwood's best oval finish was 15th at Iowa, and he retired from three of five oval races last season.
The team's only victory at Texas Motor Speedway was in June 2004 with Tony Kanaan. Twenty-one Texas races have been held since that Kanaan victory. Seven different teams have won at Texas in that time. Andretti Autosport has not won an oval race since Pocono 2018 and it has not won on a 1.5-mile oval since Danica Patrick won at Motegi in 2008.
The only time Andretti Autosport had consecutive races without a top ten finish was in 2016 when it did not put a car in the top ten at Long Beach and Barber Motorsports Park.
PeopleReady Force For Good Challenge
For the second consecutive season, PeopleReady is sponsoring the Force For Good Challenge, a charity bonus program where each IndyCar winner earns a $10,000 donation to charity of the team and driver's choosing. However, the first driver to win a race on a road course, street course and an oval will earn $1,000,000 for charity.
Last season, Josef Newgarden won the $1,000,000 prize, and it all started with an oval victory at Texas. Newgarden won the next race at Long Beach and his road course victory was in the eighth race of the season at Road America.
The first person on the board this year is Marcus Ericsson. The St. Petersburg victory earned $10,000 for Riley Children's Hospital in Indianapolis.
Ericsson won the Indianapolis 500 last year, his first career oval victory, and it helped elevate the Swede to second in the oval championship, two points behind O'Ward. Ericsson had top ten finishes in all five oval races last season and he has six consecutive oval top ten finishes dating back to 2021. At Texas, he was third, leading ten laps from 14th starting position, his first career podium finish on an oval. His best starting position at Texas is ninth.
The Swede has a chance to get ahead of the competition, knocking out two of three disciplines off the crack of the bat, and doing so would give Ericsson two chances to clinch the million dollar prize before anyone else could have a shot at it. Barber Motorsports Park would be his first chance to clinch while the Grand Prix of Indianapolis would be his second.
Winning the first two races would make this the 12th time since 1946 a driver opened the season with consecutive victories. Ericsson would be the first driver to do it since his teammate Scott Dixon won the first three races in the 2020 season. In eight of those 11 seasons, the driver to open the season with consecutive victories went on to win the championship.
Ericsson has never won consecutive races in his IndyCar career. He has not won consecutive races in his career since he ran in Japanese Formula Three in 2009. He won the second race of the Suzuka doubleheader on July 12 and then won the first race of the Motegi round on August 8. The only time he has had consecutive podium finishes in IndyCar was in 2021 when he was second at Mid-Ohio and then won at Nashville. The only other time Ericsson has had consecutive top five finishes was last season when he was fourth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and then won the Indianapolis 500.
In seven of the last eight seasons, a driver has won a race on all three track disciplines. Last season, it took Newgarden eight races to win on all three disciplines. That was the earliest a driver had won on all three disciplines since 2015. In the other six seasons it happened, it took on average 13.8333 races for a driver to win on the third and final discipline.
Passing
Texas Motor Speedway has had its share of unsatisfying races in recent seasons after the track saw a reconfiguration in turns one and two ahead of the 2017 race, and the use of PJ1 resin in the turns have stained the track surface, causing grip issues for the Firestone tires.
The 2018 Texas race had 688 total passes and 242 passes for position. Over the next four Texas races, the total number of passes and passes for positions dropped each time IndyCar ran around the 1.5-mile oval. Rock-bottom was the second race of the 2021 Texas doubleheader. Only 171 passes occurred, 100 of which were for position.
Ahead of the 2022 race, IndyCar introduced a new bargeboard in hopes of increasing downforce and allowing cars to run on the resin-stained upper part of the racetrack. IndyCar also ran a special practice session with cars only permitted to run the higher line in hopes of adding rubber to the racetrack.
With all of these changes, last year's Texas race jumped up to 461 passes, more than the three races from between 2020 and 2021, and the number of passes for position shot up to 284, the most in the last six Texas races.
In 2022, passing increased in four of five oval races compared to most recent race held at those tracks. Passing went up 68.55% and 77.29% at Iowa compared to the most recent Iowa race held in 2020. Gateway had 520 passes in 2022, the most at the track since it returned to the schedule in 2017. It was an increase of 163.9% compared to the 197 passes that happened in the 2021 Gateway race.
The only oval race that saw a decrease in passing was the Indianapolis 500. The 2022 race saw a decrease of 42 total passes from 465 to 423. Passes for position dropped by 23, from 361 to 338.
Josef Newgarden's pass for the lead on the final lap was the first IndyCar race to have a final lap pass for the lead since the 2016 Texas race where Graham Rahal took the victory by 0.0080 seconds over James Hinchcliffe.
For 2023, underwing sidewalls have been made optional and the special practice session to increase rubber in the higher groove has been expanded to all entries.
Fast Facts
This will be the tenth IndyCar race to take place on April 2 and the first since Scott Dixon won at Phoenix in 2016.
This will be the second IndyCar race to take place on April 2 in the state of Texas. Tom Sneva won at Texas World Speedway on April 2, 1977.
On two occasions has a driver scored a first career victory on April 2. Pietro Bordino won the first heat race from the 1.25-mile board oval, Los Angeles Motor Speedway, on April 2, 1922. In 1995, Robby Gordon scored his first career victory at Phoenix.
Four drivers have scored their first career victory at Texas (Billy Boat, Mark Dismore, Jeff Ward and Patricio O'Ward). It was the only career victory for Boat, Dismore and Ward.
Josef Newgarden won last year's Texas race. American drivers have not won consecutive Texas races since a five-race stretch from June 2001 through June 2003.
Only once has a driver won consecutive Texas races. Scott Dixon won the 2020 race and the first race of the 2021 doubleheader.
The average starting position for a Texas race winner is 5.1428 with a median of third.
The pole-sitter has not won at Texas since Ryan Briscoe in 2010.
Eight of the last 14 Texas races have been won from outside the top five starting positions.
Three of the last six Texas races have been won from seventh starting position.
The average number of lead changes in a Texas race is 13.485 with a median of 13.
Only one of the last 15 Texas races has had more than 15 lead changes. The 2017 race had 23 lead changes.
Six Texas races have had over 20 lead changes.
Two Texas races have had more than 30 lead changes. There were 31 lead changes in the June 2000 race and there were 32 lead changes in the October 2001 race.
The average number of cautions in a Texas race is 4.2571 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 34.771 laps with a median of 32.
Fifteen of the last 16 Texas races have had five cautions or fewer. Ten of those races had three cautions or fewer.
The most recent caution-free race on an oval occurred at Texas. It was the second race of the 2011 doubleheader.
Predictions
Josef Newgarden rebounds from a rotten St. Petersburg weekend and becomes the second driver with consecutive victories at Texas Motor Speedway. Newgarden will not need a final lap pass to win the race though. Scott McLaughlin leads fewer than half the laps. Andretti Autosport has at least three cars see the checkered flag. Devlin DeFrancesco avoids causing any incidents. McLaren pit crew members will not be clattered during any pit stops. Santino Ferrucci does not finish inside the top ten. Ed Carpenter Racing's combined laps completed will be less than 735. Meyer Shank Racing's average finish will be better than 15th. There will be less praise for Agustín Canapino. There will be a new championship leader after this weekend. Sleeper: David Malukas.
