Ericsson looked good all weekend, but never looked like the car to beat. In all four of his victories, Ericsson has never been the best car. In his Ericsson's four career victories, he has led five laps, 37 laps, 13 laps and four laps.
Fortune is Ericsson's best friend, but he puts himself in these positions to take advantage when Will Power cannot restart, a million cautions happen at Nashville, Scott Dixon speeds entering the pit lane at the Indianapolis and now today.
Ericsson was probably going to finish in the top ten today, maybe the top five, but he never looked like a podium contender until the very end when McLaughlin and Grosjean were in the tires.
Last year, Ericsson had a good start, but fell back in the second half of the season. He couldn't match the results of Will Power to push for the championship. He also had double points from the Indianapolis 500. There are no double points this season. Ericsson will need to be at another level this season. He is starting on the right foot.
2. Misfortune giveth and misfortune taketh away. Misfortune was set to give Patricio O'Ward victory in St. Petersburg, but exiting the final corner on lap 96, over-boost in the engine tripped up O'Ward and dropped him to second. Momentum was gone and Ericsson swept through and into victory lane.
O'Ward is beating himself up, but it was out of his control what happened in the engine, and he did plenty right to win this race.
For starters, O'Ward conserved his alternate tires in the opening stint. It cost him some time early, but it made up some positions through the first pit cycle. It kept O'Ward in the top five for most of this race, and as the final pit stop approached, he was able to stop and come out ahead of Scott Dixon and Álex Palou, though the Ganassi drivers had made their final pit stops prior to O'Ward.
Once Scott McLaughlin cleaned himself and Romain Grosjean out of the way, O'Ward was the man in third to inherit the lead. Somebody was going to get lucky today. Unfortunately, O'Ward ended up on the wrong side of luck just when it looked like he was going to skate through.
3. Scott Dixon has a habit of winning these races. It wasn't a victory but it was damn close to it.
Dixon nearly got the lead in the first pit cycle when Conor Daly spun. Instead, Dixon was moved to fourth due to not reaching the blend line in time. Still, Dixon kept himself at the front. The only difference is Ericsson got himself in the right position before the McLaughlin-Grosjean incident happened.
Third is a good start to the season. Dixon had a slow start last year, and he has been known for slow starts. Giving him third off the crack of the bat could be costly to his competitors.
4. This finish was about four spots better than Alexander Rossi deserved today. Rossi did well in his Arrow McLaren debut, worthy of a top ten, and keeping his nose clean got him fourth. It was mostly a good weekend for the McLaren team. Rossi is new to the group. He wasn't that far off his teammates. All three McLaren drivers made the second round of qualifying. Rossi doesn't have a great record at St. Petersburg, but he got something good out of this one. It is a good start for his McLaren stint.
5. Bravo Callum Ilott! From 22nd to fifth. Ilott avoided all the chaos. When the dust cleared, Ilott was able to make up ground and mix it up with the big boys. He isn't going to be with Juncos Hollinger Racing for long. He was wonderful last year. Smart moves earned him his first career top five finish and JHR's first top five finish.
If Ganassi is looking for a driver for its fourth car or if Penske is looking to expand back to four or if Andretti Autosport wants to strengthen its lineup or if McLaren just wants to be menace on the driver market again, Ilott is probably at the top of the pile.
6. Graham Rahal went from 20th to sixth. That sounds about right. Rahal does nothing great in qualifying, drives smart over the entire race and ends up solidly in the top ten. This is backbone of Rahal's career. He will probably do this five more times this season. If this team can find any qualifying pace, not only will Rahal be on the podium, but he will likely be on the top step.
7. Will Power recovered from a penalty for bumping Colton Herta in the turn eight tires to finish seventh. I would have been fine with the decision going either way. Power is overtaken and going into turn eight he lunges up the inside with contact putting Herta into the tires.
It wasn't that dissimilar to the Scott Dixon-Felix Rosenqvist contact on the opening lap. The difference is Power was entering a 90º corner and he wasn't really side-by-side with Herta. Power clipped Herta once and then got Herta again mid-corner, the second hit ending Herta's race. I can see how that is a penalty. If nothing was called, I could have lived with either.
Ultimately, Power pulled out a seventh-place finish, a fair result.
8. Álex Palou had a moment coming to the final restart. Palou went wide in the final corner and basically gave up four spots right then and there. He was restarting fourth and couldn't recover. Palou was in the top ten for this entire race, but he never really asserted himself, which isn't a bad thing. It is a good start to the season but it could have been better.
9. Christian Lundgaard is the "did nothing and finished ninth" driver today. Lundgaard really didn't do much. He started 11th and every time you looked up, Lundgaard was somewhere between ninth and 12th. Considering the days other drivers had, this is not a bad start to the season for the Dane. A double top ten day for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is a great finish considering where this weekend started.
10. David Malukas avoided the mess and finished tenth. Malukas showed great pace on street courses last season. The finishes didn't always match that. It wasn't the best weekend from Malukas, but he persevered and pulled out a top ten.
11. Marcus Armstrong had a good race and then had a tire cut down during the race. It took Armstrong out of the fight for more, but he still pulled out an 11th-place result. That is what you want as a rookie on debut. He qualified 13th, and he finished 11th. Nothing revolutionary, but a good start.
12. Agustín Canapino ended up 12th on debut in what is basically his third open-wheel race ever and more than a decade after running one round in South American Formula Three. We are going to learn a lot about Canapino this season, but through one race weekend and testing, he found more comfort in an IndyCar than some drivers who have spent eight years in single-seater racing ever reach. Canapino probably was gifted six to eight spots today just through attrition. He wasn't the cause of any of it though. That is a big win in race one for the Argentine.
13. Now we come to Scott McLaughlin. In the first pit cycle, McLaughlin leaped ahead of Romain Grosjean on his out lap with the New Zealander getting to the inside of turn four and preventing Grosjean from getting the position. About 35 laps later, the two drivers were in the identical situation. This time Grosjean didn't back out, but McLaughlin didn't have control of his car either. McLaughlin slid into the Frenchman entering the corner sending both into the tires.
McLaughlin or Grosjean should have won this race. They led a combined 68 of 100 laps. Grosjean lost the lead after the first round of pit stops because he likely went a lap or two too long on the alternate compound. Grosjean opened a healthy gap early in the race but at the end of the stint he was coughing up time. He stayed in touching distance of the lead the entire time after losing the top spot, and he really looked better than McLaughlin in the middle section of the race.
Whoever made it through turn four first would have won the race. Neither did and neither won.
It was two drivers unwilling to give. I don't think McLaughlin did anything all that reckless. I don't think it was a dangerous move. He just got it a little wrong under braking. Grosjean had the right line. It is shame because both drivers deserved to win. Grosjean had his first career victory ripped from his hands.
14. I am going to start picking off teams. Ed Carpenter Racing looked bad all weekend. Rinus VeeKay had some bursts of speed, but still qualified 24th and then ran wide in turn four on a restart, parked it in the tires and was clipped by Jack Harvey and Kyle Kirkwood. That was race over after 41 laps.
Conor Daly has been one of the slowest since testing. He didn't look competitive this weekend. Contact with Kirkwood may have spun him, but he didn't lose much with that spin. Daly still finished 14th because of the number of accidents but that is way too generous for the weekend he had.
I will tackle Harvey here as well. He was around the top ten for a good portion of this race. He was in the wrong place when VeeKay got into the tires. Harvey had nowhere to go and then Kirkwood had nowhere to go once those two were together. Harvey was shaken up after the accident. He appeared to be favoring his left arm and went to hospital. Let's hope we only hear good news as the night goes on.
15. Where to begin with Andretti Autosport?
We covered Grosjean, but he was going to paper over a very flawed day for Andretti Autosport.
Kyle Kirkwood is 15th in the record book for this 2023 season opener, but the strategy to start on alternate tires for him and Colton Herta cost both drivers. Kirkwood fell to 14th before his first pit stop. Herta went from second to eighth once that cycle finished. Neither driver did a good job conserving those tires early on, unlike O'Ward. O'Ward gained positions and those two lost out significantly.
If Andretti Autosport was going to let those two run hard on those tires, it should have committed to a three-stop strategy, not let those guys run hard for 20 laps, realize they were screwed and then crossed their finishers that they could run eight more laps and not lose any ground. With the way this race went, a three-stop strategy may have worked out.
Once Kirkwood lost those positions, his day was screwed. He clipped Daly, nothing serious, but then had nowhere to go when VeeKay and Harvey collided, leading Kirkwood to climb over Harvey's parked vehicle. Somehow, Kirkwood's car was still good enough to drive and complete 97 laps in this race, but the one thing Kirkwood cannot afford to do this season is get into accidents. He had two this weekend.
We saw Kirkwood's best in him qualifying in the Firestone Fast Six, but he must eradicate his worst quality if he hopes to be with Andretti Autosport long-term.
As for Herta, we have seen him struggle on alternate tires at the end of stints before. I don't know why Andretti Autosport would think that strategy is the right call for this driver. If you are going to start Herta on alternate tires then the strategy must be to get him off those tires immediately. If the team doesn't want to do that then it must start on the primary tire.
The poor strategy knocked Herta down the order and put him in position to be drilled into the barrier when Will Power was desperate not to lose a position. Herta could have been in the top five at that point and away from that mess. Instead, his season opener ends in a retirement and trying to fight from behind in the championship. Andretti Autosport must do better. Some of these are self-inflicted mistakes.
16. Let's cover the accident at the start in as close to chronological order as possible.
Dixon and Felix Rosenqvist are side-by-side through turn three: Racing incident. Neither driver didn't anything dangerous. They were side-by-side, there was slight contact, Rosenqvist ended up brushing the wall, puncturing a tire and bending suspension. It effectively ended Rosenqvist's day and I wish he could have gotten to run the entire race.
The field stacks up and Santino Ferrucci runs into the back of Hélio Castroneves: It is a chain reaction. It doesn't look good when a driver runs into the back of another. It especially doesn't look good when the driver running over another is Ferrucci, who wasn't full-time last year and he is driving for A.J. Foyt Racing.
Devlin DeFrancesco gets hit from behind off of Jack Harvey's front wing and pinballs into Castroneves: DeFrancesco had nowhere to go, and is a victim of the circumstances. Harvey couldn't see the Castroneves incident. DeFrancesco gets the worst of that, but it would somehow get worse from there.
Sting Ray Robb swerves to the right to avoid the accident, but moves into the path of a speedy Simon Pagenaud: Again, a chain reaction, neither driver had anywhere to go. Robb's damage was minimal and he was able to continue, but Robb spent the entire race multiple laps down. Pagenaud was done. Not a way Pagenaud hoped his 200th start would go.
Benjamin Pedersen comes flying in and slams into the side of DeFrancesco, launching the Canadian into the air: I don't know what Pedersen was doing here. It was a chain reaction, but he was so far back that he shouldn't have been carrying that much speed into the scene of the accident. This is Pedersen's first IndyCar race. He didn't do wonders to earn the trust of his competitors today in only about three corners of racing.
It is incredible DeFrancesco was not seriously hurt in that accident. It is a testament to the safety of this Dallara chassis. I don't want to see it tested that way again.
17. We haven't mentioned one driver... Josef Newgarden.
This was not a great weekend for Josef Newgarden. He never looked great. Practice pace wasn't there. He couldn't make it out of the first round of qualifying. Newgarden looked a little better in the race, but he was only in the top ten late because of attrition and the McLaughlin-Grosjean accident put him in the top five. However, like Palou, Newgarden ran wide in the final corner coming to the restart after the McLaughlin-Grosjean accident and Newgarden gave away a handful of positions.
Then Newgarden lost the engine five laps from the finish. Seventeenth is a harsh final result. Eighth would have been suitable for his weekend. For the second year in a row, Newgarden starts the season behind the eight-ball. He won two of the first three races last season, but Newgarden probably doesn't want to keep leaning on that being the way he starts a season in hopes of earning a third championship.
18. This wasn't the greatest race IndyCar has ever had. There were some good sections. I wish we had got to see McLaughlin and Grosjean race to the finish. The marbles were notable in this race. I don't know if Roger Penske cut back on the sweepers to get more money in the promotional budget, but I don't think the track was swept once and there were multiple chances to do so, including before the final restart with just under 25 laps to go.
Between the marbles, the alternate tires wearing quickly, and the new surface between turns three and seven, the cars were more on edge than we have seen in previous years at St. Petersburg.
I was happy that Firestone brought an alternate tire where a team got a strong 20 laps but then the final ten to 15 laps would be daunting. That is what the alternate tire compound should be. It should feel like a driver is flying early in the stint and then about halfway through have the driver go "oh no" because they are going to be skating and still have to go quite a distance to reach the end of the fuel window.
That is the balance we should want. The alternate is strong at the start, but at the end it is significantly inferior to the primary compound. The field came together at the end of that first stint. It was fantastic to watch and it swung the race.
19. Kudos to St. Petersburg because the crowd looked stellar. The grandstands on the inside of the pit lane were apparently larger this year. The grandstand at the outside of turn ten looked bigger as well. People were lined up all along the fence, especially on the outside of the straightaway leading to turn ten. Boats are out in force in the marina with spectators hanging out. This is a great race for early March. This is a great place to start the season at.
This was the 20th Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, and we know it will be on the schedule the next two seasons. Most street races are lucky to go beyond three to five years. St. Petersburg is now firmly in the conversation with Long Beach and Toronto. It is an exceptional event. The race is usually respectable. Today wasn't that bad. It at least wasn't predictable. I look forward to next year.
20. Until next year, we will wait for the next race in 2023, and it almost feels like it is a year away. It is only a month until the Texas race, but nobody wants to wait that long.
