Three practice days are in the books and after getting through the week without many incidents, all eyes turn to qualifying for the 107th Indianapolis 500.
There was plenty of speed displayed during practice, and Fast Friday was an eye-opener as we are looking at what should be another record-setting grid in terms of average pace. The 230-mph range was no longer reserved for the top teams. Everybody is playing in that neighborhood, and while only one car will fail to qualify, every team must be on their game to make this field.
When it comes to the Fast 12, it feels like 20 entries have a legitimate case for advancing to Sunday. As for the last chance qualifying session, there are about a half-dozen entries that would not surprise you having to sweat out Sunday afternoon, but it is Indianapolis, and just when we think everything is settled, a surprise has a funny way of sneaking up on us.
What will it take to win pole position?
Speeds were massive on Fast Friday. The best lap was run at 234.753 mph at the hands of Takuma Sato, over 7/10ths of a mile per hour faster than Scott Dixon's pole position average speed last year. Of course, a qualifying run take places over four laps and not one, but last year's top speed in Friday practice was 232.789 mph, also at the hands of Takuma Sato.
Since 2012, the introduction of the DW12 chassis, the fastest qualifying speed has increased by 7.562 mph, up from Ryan Briscoe's pole position at 226.484 mph to Dixon's 234.046 mph last year.
Not counting 2015 when the extra 100 kPA qualifying boost was not run, the top qualifying speed has increased by about 0.3675% over each year. Last year, Dixon's pole position speed saw a 0.9567% increase from the fastest qualifying run in 2021.
Based on the average increase in the DW12-era, we should be projected a fastest qualifying run around 234.906 mph. From 2021 to 2022, the fastest qualifying average went from 231.828 mph to 234.046 mph, a 0.9567% increase. If that increase was repeated in 2023, the fastest qualifying run will be around 236.285 mph, or 0.701 mph off Arie Luyendyk’s track record average of 236.986 mph.
Last year was the first time the fastest qualifying run was faster than the fastest practice lap run earlier in the week.
Who is in play for the Fast 12?
In a word, everyone, or at least more than expected. The usual names are in the mix.
Chip Ganassi Racing has been regularly at the top of the timesheet. On the average overall practice result, Ganassi drivers ranked first (Takuma Sato), second (Marcus Ericsson), third (Scott Dixon) and sixth (Álex Palou). Sato topped two of the three practice days and Ericsson topped the other. Dixon, who is attempting to become the first driver to win three consecutive Indianapolis 500 pole positions, was second overall each of the first two days. Sato and Ericsson had the two fastest four-lap averages in Friday practice at 233.413 mph and 233.113 mph respectively. Dixon and Palou were ranked tenth and 11th respectively in that over four laps.
Team Penske showed great speed on Friday. Josef Newgarden had the third fastest four-lap average on Friday while Will Power was fourth. The top four all averaged over 233 mph over their mock qualifying run. Scott McLaughlin ranked 12th in that category.
Rinus VeeKay has been quick all week. VeeKay had the fastest no tow lap on Wednesday and ranked in the top six all three days. Conor Daly and Ed Carpenter both showed good one-lap pace, but their four-lap averages were both outside the top fifteen on Friday.
Andretti Autosport showed promise, but is far from a lock in the top 12. Colton Herta had a four-lap average good enough for sixth, and Kyle Kirkwood was the top Andretti driver for most of the afternoon but ended eighth in the four-lap average category. Romain Grosjean was 14th.
Arrow McLaren should put one, if not at least two drivers into the Fast 12, but McLaren is in the same boat as Andretti. Felix Rosenqvist had the seventh fastest four-lap average on Friday and Alexander Rossi was ninth. Patricio O'Ward put down some blistering one-lap and two-lap runs, but never really tied together a strong four-lap effort. O'Ward best average was 13th.
Santino Ferrucci had a few staggering laps on Friday, and Ferrucci was third in the no tow report on Thursday, but his best four-lap average on Friday was 18th. His average overall practice result was seventh, the fifth best driver in that category.
What will it take to clinch the top 30?
Of the 33 drivers to register a four-lap mock qualifying run on Friday, they all exceeded over 230 mph in average speed.
Last year, when only 33 cars were entered for the Indianapolis 500 and no one was in danger to be bumped, Juan Pablo Montoya was 30th at 228.622 mph. In 2021, when 35 cars were entered, Dalton Kellett held on to 30th with a speed of 228.323 mph. In 2020, another year with only 33 entries, Max Chilton was 30th at 227.303 mph. Thirty-six cars were entered for the 2019 Indianapolis 500 and Pippa Mann took 30th with four laps averaging 227.244 mph. The 2018 race, the first with the universal aero kit, had 35 drivers and Graham Rahal was 30th at 225.407 mph.
The average qualifying speed for 30th since 2018 is 227.380 mph
Who is in the most danger of missing the 107th Indianapolis 500?
At the moment, it is Callum Ilott.
After battling an uncomfortable race car through the first two days of practice, Juncos Hollinger Racing decided to switch to the spare car for Ilott. This car was used in the April test with Agustín Canapino, however, Ilott was unable to make a practice run with this car at the end of Friday and the team is uncertain the car will be ready for the track on Saturday, meaning Ilott and JHR's only chance to make the 107th Indianapolis 500 could be the last change qualifying session to set the final row on Sunday afternoon.
Over the three days, Ilott's average overall practice result was 33.333. He was 34th on Wednesday and Friday.
Meanwhile, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing struggled for speed all week and none of its four cars are in a satisfying position heading into Saturday qualifying. Overall, RLLR was 29th (Katherine Legge), 31st (Jack Harvey), 32nd (Christian Lundgaard), and 33rd (Graham Rahal). The only driver RLLR was ahead of was the aforementioned Ilott. Harvey suffered an engine failure in the final ten minutes of Friday practice.
R.C. Enerson has shown respectable pace all week, but his four-lap average on Friday was 33rd, the slowest registered. Only Ilott did not register a four-lap run.
Dale Coyne Racing haven't been bad, but they haven't been great either. Sting Ray Robb's average overall practice result is 24.333, ranking 27th this month, but he was 25th and 30th on the no tow report the first two days and his four-lap average was 29th on Friday. David Malukas was 21st and 26th on the no tow report the first two days and his four-lap average was 25th on Friday.
What about the other nine drivers not mentioned?
Those drivers would be Ryan Hunter-Reay, Stefan Wilson, Devlin DeFrancesco, Benjamin Pedersen, Simon Pagenaud, Tony Kanaan, Agustín Canapino, Marco Andretti and Hélio Castroneves.
Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has shown solid pace all week, never really wowing anyone at the top, but not concerning anyone at the bottom. An early qualifying draw for Hunter-Reay is favorable and should slot him no worse than the middle of the field. Wilson goes up much later. If conditions are unfavorable he could be closer to the cut line than desired but if he repeats what he has done over the first three days he should be out of the mix for 30th.
DeFrancesco hasn’t come close to his top teammates all week. He is probably closer to 30th than he wishes but should probably make it on Saturday with breathing room. Andretti had the 17th best four-lap average on Friday. He hasn’t appeared to be a potential Fast 12 participant, but an early qualifying run could put him in a prime spot to steal one of those positions.
Neither Meyer Shank Racing car looks threatening. Pagenaud’s best four-lap average Friday was 20th and Castroneves’ was 22nd. They will likely make one qualifying run, be far from 12th but not fearing 31st and it will be a quiet day from MSR.
Kanaan hasn’t been in the same ballpark as his teammates, but it could be a case of the #66 McLaren crew keeping its cards close to its chest. It would not be a surprise if Kanaan cracked the top 12 Saturday.
While Ilott has been unhappy all week, Canapino looks content. The Argentine was the 15th fastest on four-lap averages Friday. He has expressed no concerns with the balance of his car and this group appears unfazed about the prospect of being in the last row qualifying session.
Pedersen is in a similar boat to the likes of Wilson and DeFrancesco. Practice pace has been promising for Pedersen and he has breathing room to the bubble, but is still closer to it than he would probably wishes he was.
What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?
Last year, five of the first six qualifiers advanced to the Fast 12. The top three at the end of day one were all in the first four qualifiers. Rinus VeeKay was second on track and was the fastest, just ahead of Patricio O'Ward, who was the first qualifier of the day, and Felix Rosenqvist was third fastest after being the fourth qualifier.
If Takuma Sato had not had his first qualifying run disallowed after he failed to properly take the access road in turn three on his cool down lap, disturbing Marco Andretti's qualifying run, then half of the Fast 12 participants would have come from the first ten qualifiers.
Sato did end up making the Fast 12, but he was the only driver to make it via a second qualifying attempt. The other 11 drivers all made it on their first attempt. While five of the first six made it, three of the final 11 qualifiers did as well, including Will Power, who was 32nd in line. Four other drivers in the second half of the qualifying line made it: Scott Dixon (18th), Álex Palou (19th), Ed Carpenter (23rd) and Marcus Ericsson (25th).
Including Sato, only eight drivers made multiple attempts last year in a Saturday qualifying that was interrupted for rain and then prematurely ended around 4:50 p.m. due to weather.
Of those eight drivers, five improved, but one of those included Marco Andretti, who had an engine issue on his first attempt, and another was Hélio Castroneves, who had a significant moment on his first qualifying attempt.
The other drivers that improved were David Malukas, who went from a 231.233 mph to 231.607 mph, Callum Ilott going from 230.212 mph to 230.961 mph, and Sage Karam jumping from 229.905 mph to 230.464 mph.
Sato went from a 232.196 mph, which would have him tenth through the first run through the qualifying line, to 231.708 mph. Scott McLaughlin sacrificed a 231.543 mph average to be the first car on track after the first rainstorm to qualify at 230.154 mph over four laps, dropping him from 15th to 25th on the grid. Alexander Rossi dropped from 231.341 mph, what would have been 16th (17th if McLaughlin's first attempt stood), to 20th at 230.812 mph.
What is the Qualifying Order?
Ryan Hunter-Reay will be the first on the track for qualifying Saturday ahead of former Andretti Autosport teammate Colton Herta. Will Power will go out third ahead of former Team Penske teammate Hélio Castroneves. Marco Andretti is the fifth qualifier while Marcus Ericsson is sixth in line. Christian Lundgaard will be the first RLLR car to take the track while Alexander Rossi will be the first McLaren driver on circuit.
Car #9 will be ninth in the qualifying line with driver Scott Dixon. Simon Pagenaud rounds out the first ten qualifiers. Benjamin Pedersen will be the first rookie qualifier, directly ahead of the second rookie qualifier, Sting Ray Robb. Felix Rosenqvist, Tony Kanaan and Ed Carpenter round out the first 15 qualifiers.
R.C. Enerson will be the third rookie to take to the track ahead of Jack Harvey. Harvey caps off the first half of the qualifying line. Conor Daly kicks off the second half of the line ahead of Devlin DeFrancesco. and Graham Rahal.
Rinus VeeKay and Patricio O'Ward will be the 21st and 22nd qualifiers respectively. Callum Ilott is 23rd in line if his car is ready at that time. Stefan Wilson will go out 24th in car #24 with Takuma Sato being the 25th car in line.
The next three qualifiers will be David Malukas, Santino Ferrucci and Álex Palou. Andretti Autosport teammates Romain Grosjean and Kyle Kirkwood round out the first 30 qualifiers. Katherine Legge is 31st in line ahead of Scott McLaughlin. Agustín Canapino is the final rookie in line, and Josef Newgarden is the 34th and final driver in the order.
What is the Weather Forecast?
Temperatures will be in the 50s at the start of Saturday morning with sunny conditions. At 11:00 a.m. ET, the start of qualifying, the high will be around 59º F with a wind to the south at ten miles per hour. Temperatures will creep up three degrees at noon while wind speeds will climb to about 11 mph. By 2:00 p.m., the high should be around 66º F.
The high of 69º F will be reached around 4:00 p.m. Saturday and remain at that temperature through the remainder of qualifying with winds still blowing to the south at 11 mph.
On Sunday, temperatures will be up notably as sunny skies will remain. At noon, it will be around 70º F with a wind to the southwest at about three miles per hour. When the Fast 12 session begins at 2:00 p.m., it will be around 75º F with no change to the wind. The last chance qualifying session at 4:00 p.m. should take place in about 78º F temperatures before the Fast 6 round takes place at 5:00 p.m. ET.
What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?
There will be a one-hour practice session Saturday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The 34 drivers will be split into two groups, each getting 30 minutes of that one-hour session.
Day one qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET and run until 5:50 p.m. ET. The top 12 drivers at the end of day one will advance to the Fast 12 session on Sunday. Qualifiers 13th to 30th will be locked into the Indianapolis 500, and the bottom four will participate in the last chance qualifying session on Sunday.
The Fast 12 participants will get a one-hour practice session at 11:30 a.m. on Sunday with the last chance qualifiers getting an hour of practice starting at 12:30 p.m. The Fast 12 session will be held at 2:00 p.m. Each car will get one attempt. The fastest six advance to the final round to decide pole position. The other six will set rows three and four on the grid.
At 4:00 p.m., the last chance qualifying session will take place. Each car will get at least one attempt, but multiple attempts will be possible with the qualifying session running through 5:00 p.m. The slowest qualifier from this group will not make the 107th Indianapolis 500.
The Fast Six qualifying round will begin at 5:15 p.m. with each entry getting one qualifying attempt to win pole position.
On Monday, a two-hour practice session will held starting at 1:00 p.m.
