Three years after winning the Indianapolis 500, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have three of four participants as all three full-time drivers, Christian Lundgaard, Jack Harvey and Graham Rahal, did not make the top 30 along with Dale Coyne Racing's Sting Ray Robb.
I wish we could say this was a surprise, but Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's qualifying woes date back to last year. Lundgaard and Harvey were on the last row last year. Rahal was only 21st. The team looked atrocious at Texas last year and the team returned worse this April. We knew this was going to be a difficult Indianapolis 500 qualifying for RLLR for quite some time. I don't think any of us imagined it would be this difficult.
Entering today there was a strong rumbling that all four last chance qualifying cars would be RLLR entries. Katherine Legge pulled off the best qualifying run of the day for RLLR at 231.070 mph over four laps. Lundgaard was the only other RLLR car to break the 231-mph bracket at 231.056 mph. During the first run through the qualifying line, it wasn't clear any of the RLLR cars would break 231 mph. If that was the case, the rest of the field, at least those that were above 231 mph had to be feeling settled.
Robb had not shown great pace all week in practice, but he was never on the very bottom and was avoiding the bottom four, but he was far from being seen as a lock for the top 30. The car never looked to have it, and up until about 13 minutes left in this qualifying session, it looked like neither Dale Coyne Racing car was going to make the top 30.
Four full-time drivers will be fighting for the final spots on the grid. One will go home and have a large, black cloud hanging over the rest of his season.
2. Where do we go from here?
While none of these four made the top 30, they all made qualifying runs and all it will take to make the Indianapolis 500 is beating one car in a one-hour session. Lundgaard did break the 231-mph average, the only of the four to do it. Robb was at least comfortably in the 230-mph range. Harvey struggled to break 230 mph and Rahal looks to be the worst of the four and never cracked a 230 mph average.
Thirty years after his father Bobby missed the Indianapolis 500 despite being the defending IndyCar champion, Graham Rahal looks endangered of joining a group with his father that he likely never dreamt of joining.
3. This is an odd time for the Rahals and the Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing organization. Earlier this week, Graham Rahal came out and said he would be looking at rides elsewhere if RLLR's form does not improve. Rahal is in a contract year and he has been with the family team for 11 seasons.
It has been nearly six years since Rahal's most recent victory, but he has been a regular top ten driver. The last season and change is where the most hardship has been. Rahal is 34 years old, far from the twilight of his career. He wants to win. The results have been mostly good and he believes in himself, but over the last few years, RLLR has taken a step back. Rahal isn't at the bottom because of his ability. His other two full-time teammates are in the same boat as he is and Katherine Legge only made it through by the skin of her teeth.
The organization is treading water. It can be a race winner. It has shown promise, see last week at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but it needs to be more than two or three strong races a year. Regardless of whether or not Rahal pulls through and makes the field of 33, the future may have already been decided this weekend.
4. At the other end of the timesheet, Arrow McLaren led the way. Felix Rosenqvist had the top qualifying average of 233.947 mph on his second run coming over four and a half hours after his first run through the qualifying. Rosenqvist's first run was a touch above 233 mph. Alexander Rossi led most of the day after running a 233.528 mph average on his first qualifying run. Tony Kanaan leaped into the top 12 late in the day with a four-lap average of 233.347 mph, sixth overall, and Patricio O'Ward was eighth at 233.252 mph.
Any of these four cars could win pole position. O'Ward had a tough draw being 22nd in the qualifying line. He never experienced the ideal conditions but still had the pace. Everyone will be competing in the heat tomorrow in the Fast 12. Rossi made one run early in the day. Rosenqvist found speed. If O'Ward and the team doesn't overthink it, he will be looking good for pole position. He does have a tough battle within his own team let alone with the eight other competitors.
5. The only Honda team is Chip Ganassi Racing. Álex Palou was ranked third at the end of Saturday at 233.398 mph with Scott Dixon at 233.375 mph in fifth. Takuma Sato went 233.322 in seventh and Marcus Ericsson took tenth at 233.030 mph.
Sato went out late on his first run. Dixon showed good first lap speed, but like most of the Honda teams, he lost a lot of speed over four laps. Palou was near identical to Dixon. Ericsson was quiet. He was clinging onto a top 12 spot but never looked in danger of being bumped. He found additional speed on a later attempt, but really topped out.
The Ganassi group is good but it didn't seem like the might was there to take pole position in 2023.
6. The lone non-McLaren/Ganassi driver in the top eight was Rinus VeeKay in fourth at 233.395 mph. VeeKay again mastered Indianapolis. He has never started worse than fourth here. Ed Carpenter Racing has a history of good qualifying cars, but the team has not been as pinpoint quick as it has been in the past. VeeKay was the only ECR car to make the Fast 12. Last year, VeeKay topped Saturday and fell to second. I don't think he will find speed and take pole position. McLaren looks unbreakable. It will require something special, but maybe that is what ECR has in store for us.
7. One unexpected Fast 12 participant? Sure, we could all have imagined that. Two, and both being A.J. Foyt Racing entries? That was stunning today. Santino Ferrucci had a few good laps yesterday, but we didn't see him put together a four-lap run that suggested he would make the top 12 let alone average above 233 mph, but he was ninth at 233.147 mph.
Benjamin Pedersen? He was impressive by Benjamin Pedersen standards. Anything in the top half of the field was going to get our attention for Pedersen. He hasn't been close to impressive this season. He was good in practice but there was never any indication he would be fighting for the top 12 let alone he would be 11th at 232.739 mph. Like Ferrucci, he had a few good laps but we never saw a run that would suggest he would be qualifying Sunday. It is staggering both Foyt cars made it.
8. Both Foyt cars made it and the top Team Penske qualifier was Will Power in 12th, only 0.020 mph off Pedersen over four laps. Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden might have overplayed their hand after the draw. They were 32nd and 34th in line. Both cars waved their spot in line to wait for better conditions only to go out about 20 minutes later than they would have gone out because the likes of Palou had strong times but McLaughlin and Newgarden couldn't match their practice pace.
Power and Newgarden both broke 233-mph four-lap averages in Friday practice. Neither came close to that today. It was kind of stunning to see.
9. Ed Carpenter was 13th, 0.03 seconds off making the second round. Conor Daly was frustrated and only ended up 16th. Credit to McLaren and Foyt for raising its game. I don't think ECR is that far off. I think it was just that tough to make the Fast 12 this year.
10. Andretti Autosport's top qualifier is Kyle Kirkwood in 15th at 232.662 mph and none of its five cars came close to the Fast 12. The team looked promising to get at least one car through to Sunday. I thought Colton Herta would benefit from being the second car on track but his first run was not close. It felt like 232 mph was going to be the minimum to make the top 12 today. Herta went 231.951 mph and a 232.719 mph was necessary to make the top 12.
I don't know where Andretti has gone. It has really taken a step back almost every year since the universal aero kit was introduced. Herta ended up 21st, Romain Grosjean was 19th. Marco Andretti was angry in 24th and Devlin DeFrancesco was good enough in 26th. I don't see any of these cars having the race pace to climb forward and really compete for victory. A top ten might be the best this team can do in a week's time.
11. Ryan Hunter-Reay returned to Indianapolis after a year away and qualified 18th for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. That appeared to be where Hunter-Reay would be all week. This is a case where it is a good thing to live up to expectations. Stefan Wilson was 25th in the sister D&R car, about what you want from a one-off driver.
12. Meyer Shank Racing has Hélio Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud 20th and 22nd respectively. Castroneves had two moments on his first qualifying run. It was a little concerning but Castroneves was dialed in for the second run and had no concerns of making the race.
13. David Malukas pulled out a seismic qualifying run in the final minutes of today's session. I had my concerns about Robb entering today, and Malukas wasn't much better, but I didn't expect both Coyne cars to be in danger of missing the top 30. Malukas found the speed on his final run to end up 23rd. I don't know what took the team that long to find that speed. Malukas was unfazed through it all and nailed the run without much wiggle room.
14. Juncos Hollinger Racing had its cars end up 27th and 28th, but I bet that group is thrilled it doesn't have to take to the track on Sunday. Agustín Canapino hasn't put a wheel wrong all week. Canapino thought he left some time on the table, but it never felt he was at risk of not making the top 30. Callum Ilott was shaken for the last 72 hours. The team flipped the spare car around to be ready for today. Ilott was able to be in qualifying line at his schedule spot, the first run didn't go well, but it built confidence and he wound up making it into the top 30 when that was doubtful for the entire week. Great work to them.
15. Two years ago, R.C. Enerson was one of two drivers bumped from the Indianapolis 500 and he wasn't close driving for the makeshift Top Gun Racing. With Abel Motorsports from Indy Lights running this program, Enerson made it on his first qualifying run at 231.129 mph. It was probably hairy in the final 20 minutes when Malukas leaped to 23rd and Robb, Harvey and Lundgaard were in line for another qualifying run, but Enerson could not have asked for a much better day.
Enerson never looked in trouble. The car was never out of his control. He broke 231 mph on his first run. With the issues RLLR was having, Enerson had nothing really to sweat about. He had the speed and others didn't. That is a weird thing to say considering this is a team in its first IndyCar outing with a driver who has never started an IndyCar race on an oval, hasn't started any IndyCar race in nearly two years and the other organization has won the Indianapolis 500 twice, including two years.
This effort, and Katherine Legge making the top 30 as well, has me thinking off all the drivers out there that cannot get this break and have a shot at Indianapolis. Enerson isn't doing this with a golden opportunity. He is scrapping together what he can to heave up a Hail Mary, but the prayer has been answered and he will be in the 107th Indianapolis 500. What about all those other drivers just looking for an answer?
Kyle Kaiser hasn't done anything since the 2019 Indianapolis 500 when he and Juncos Racing bumped McLaren and Fernando Alonso out of the race. Spencer Pigot had the fastest qualifying run during Saturday qualifying in 2019 at 230.083 mph, and four years later Pigot is Enerson's turn one spotter and hasn't run an IndyCar in nearly three years. J.R. Hildebrand doesn't have a ride this year for the first time since 2010. Oliver Askew does more commentating that racing now. Carlos Muñoz has five top ten finishes in six Indianapolis 500 starts and he has completed all 1,200 laps in those six races. Linus Lundqvist is looking for his first shot.
I wish there was a support series for all these drivers between full-time IndyCar rides and done with Indy Lights where they can compete regularly and be in sight for the fans, teams and sponsors. We could easily have 15 to 20 drivers competing and it would be for the better.
There are plenty of drivers who have been around IndyCar that just want one shot, who only need one shot, but there isn't enough room for everybody. It isn't practical for there to be 40 to 45 entries each year in the month of May, but the drivers are there. We have plenty of drivers. We are lacking everything else and it costs too much to be a one-off that doesn't make the race. We must celebrate Enerson because he represents far more than himself.
16. We have been doing this Bump Day/Pole Day combination for a few years now, and every time it happens it is a flood of emotions. On one end, you have a handful of teams who cannot breathe and are dreading the worst. Once that is settle and tears of relief are mixing with tears of agony, it immediately flips to being about pole position and someone trying to run faster than they have ever run before. Today was exhausting enough. Tomorrow, though only 16 cars, less than half the field, will be on track, it will only be more draining.
