Track Walk: Tenth Grand Prix of Indianapolis

The fifth round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season takes place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Tenth Grand Prix of Indianapolis held on the 2.439-mile road course at the facility. Twenty-seven cars are entered for this year's race, matching the most races to ever enter a Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The most cars to ever start an IMS road course race was 28 for the August 2021 round. There have been four different winners in the last four IMS road course races. Only once has a winner on the IMS road course gone on to win the IndyCar championship. That was Scott Dixon, who won the 2020 Grand Prix of Indianapolis held on July 4th. 

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday May 13 with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider, and Kevin Lee will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 9:30 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Second Practice: 1:00 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 4:00 p.m. ET 

Saturday:

Warm-up: 11:15 a.m. ET (30 minutes)
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (85 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

How Close Can Grosjean Get?

The common theme over the first quarter of the 2023 IndyCar season was Romain Grojsean pushing for his first career IndyCar victory. In every race, Grosjean was a feature at the front. At all four, he had a sniff at victory. 

The Frenchman led 31 laps at St. Petersburg and was in position to overtake Scott McLaughlin in the final pit cycle, which was setting up to be the move for the lead, before McLaughlin collided into Grosjean, knocking Grosjean out of the race. In the final moments at Texas, Grosjean was in the top five but had an accident on the penultimate lap. He was running consistently in the top three at Long Beach but could only manage second behind Andretti Autosport teammate Kyle Kirkwood. Grosjean led the most laps from pole position at Barber Motorsports Park, but the two-stop strategy did not allow Grosjean to hold off McLaughlin and Grosjean was runner-up for another race. 

The pair of runner-up finishes has Grosjean up to fifth in the championship, but he has five runner-up finishes through his first 34 starts, but victory continues to elude the Andretti Autosport driver. 

Only three drivers in IndyCar history have had at least five runner-up results before a first career victory. The record for most runner-up finishes before a victory belongs to Dave Lewis. Lewis had eight runner-up finishes between 1913 and 1919. His first career victory came on July 19, 1919 at the Uniontown Speedway. The kicker? Lewis was second in the race immediately following his first career victory later that day. 

Lewis would not win again until June 12, 1926 at Altoona. He won twice more in the 1926 season and his final career victory came on May 7, 1927 at the Atlantic City Speedway.

Manny Ayulo had five runner-up finishes before his first victory. In 1953, Ayulo had three consecutive runner-up finish at Springfield, Milwaukee and DuQuoin. Two races after DuQuoin, he started on pole position for the Hoosier Hundred at the Indiana State Fairgrounds but finished second. He was second again at Milwaukee on June 6, 1954 but won two races later at Darlington on July 5. Ayulo would win at Milwaukee that August and finish runner-up in the final two races of the season at the Arizona State Fairgrounds and Las Vegas Park. Those were Ayulo's final two starts as he lost his life in practice for the following year's Indianapolis 500.

Pancho Carter had one runner-up finish in each of the first five seasons of his career from 1974 to 1978. Carter was second in his fifth career start at Michigan. The next runner-up was in the 1975 season opener, one of the California 500 heat races at Ontario. Carter was runner-up in the 1976 season opener as well, this time at Phoenix. He was second at Milwaukee in August 1977 and second in the 1978 California 500. Carter's one and only IndyCar victory would come in the 1981 Michigan 500. 

The good news for Grosjean is he has a long way to go to match the record for most podium finishes before a first carer victory. Billy Vukovich, Jr. had 14 podium results before he won at Michigan in September 1973. Grosjean only has six podium finishes.

Off the back of consecutive runner-up finishes, Grosjean heads to a track where he has raced well previously. He was second in the 2021 Grand Prix of Indianapolis from pole position. He led the most laps before losing the lead while battling traffic while struggling on tire degradation as well. Later that year, Grosjean was second in the August IMS road course race. Despite his speed in 2021, he was 17th and 16th in the two IMS road course races last year.

Streaking Andretti Autosport

It has been a while, but Andretti Autosport finds itself on a bit of a hot streak heading into the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

While Grosjean was runner-up in the last two races, Kyle Kirkwood won at Long Beach. The team had three cars in the top five in that race with Colton Herta finishing fourth. Andretti Autosport has had at least one top ten finisher in three consecutive races of this season. The team has not had three consecutive podium finishes since Alexander Rossi had a four-race run of podium finishes between the Mid-Ohio doubleheader and the Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader at the IMS road course in 2020. 

The team has not won multiple times in the first five races of a season since 2014 when Ryan Hunter-Reay won at Barber and then won Indianapolis 500, the fifth race of the season. 

Three of Andretti's four drivers are ranked in the top ten in the championship. Grosjean is fifth on 115 points. Kirkwood occupies ninth on 92 points, seven points ahead of Herta. Andretti Autosport only led 196 laps in the entire 2021 season. The team has led 147 laps through the first four races, 75% of its 2021 total. Andretti is on pace to lead 633 laps this season. 

Not only is Andretti Autosport in good form, but it is going to the only track the team won at in 2022. Andretti Autosport swept the IMS road course races last year. Herta won in changing conditions last May and Rossi won in July. The team led 111 of 160 laps run between the two IMS road course races last year, 69.375%. Prior to last year, Andretti Autosport had never won on the IMS road course. 

While Herta will be remembered for his skill last May, he was in good position to dominate the July race before his car suffered a mechanical failure while leading, and opening the door for Rossi to take the win. Herta has three podium finishes and five top five finishes in eight IMS road course starts. His 98 laps led are second all-time on the IMS road course behind only Will Power's 348.

Kirkwood was outside the top twenty in both IMS road course races last year. He started outside the top twenty in each race as well. In six Road to Indy starts on the IMS road course, Kirkwood only won once, the second U.S. F2000 race in 2018. 

Devlin DeFrancesco is the lone Andretti driver without a top ten finish this season. DeFrancesco is actually without a top fifteen result through four races, and the Canadian is 27th in the championship on 33 points, ahead of only Ed Carpenter and Takuma Sato, two drivers that only started the Texas race this season. DeFrancesco was 21st and 18th in the IMS road course races in 2022.

Andretti Autosport's most recent three-race winning streak at a track was at Long Beach when Rossi won in 2018 and 2019 and then Herta won in 2021 after there was no race in 2020 due to the pandemic and Long Beach closed out the 2021 season. 

The Qualifying Split

Through four races this season there has been a notable trend in qualifying. 

The top 12 drivers in average starting position average 10.5 or better. Every other driver averages 15.25 or worse. Three drivers are averaging a top five starting spot through the first four races. Six drivers average a starting position outside the top twenty. 

Seventeen drivers have started in the top ten this season, but ten of those drivers have at least three top ten starts. 

Romain Grojsean leads the way with an average starting spot of fourth after starting on pole position twice with a third and an 11th as his other starting position. Patricio O'Ward hasn't started worse than sixth this season and is averaging a grid position of 4.25. Álex Palou started seventh in the first two races of the season but followed it with a fourth and a second, lowering his average starting position to fifth. 

Palou's Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon is just outside the top three with an average of 5.25. Dixon's worst starting position is ninth. Grosjean, O'Ward and Dixon are the only drivers to have started in the top five of at least three races. Six drivers have started in the top five multiple times. 

Felix Rosenqvist is one of four drivers to have started in the top ten of every race this season. Rosenqvist was on pole position at Texas but has been eighth twice and tenth once, bringing the Swede's average to 6.75.

The top 12 drivers all come from Andretti Autosport, Arrow McLaren, Chip Ganassi Racing and Team Penske. Colton Herta and Josef Newgarden are tied at 8.25, a quarter spot better than Scott McLaughlin. Marcus Ericsson is at 8.75 and Alexander Rossi rounds out the top ten at averaging a ninth place starting spot. Kyle Kirkwood averages a 9.5 while Will Power is at 10.5 and Power has yet to start in the top five this season. 

Who leads the best of the rest?

That would surprisingly be Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's Christian Lundgaard. Lundgaard qualified sixth at Barber, lowering his average down to 15.25, and he is one of just three drivers outside of the top 12 qualifiers to have started in the top ten this season. The other is David Malukas, who happens to be just behind Lundgaard in average starting position, but Malukas sits on 16.75, a full position and a half worse than Lundgaard. Malukas' one top ten start was ninth at Texas.

The other top ten start? It happened at Barber, and it was Rinus VeeKay in ninth position, but VeeKay's average of 19.5 has him ranked 21st in IndyCar.

Meyer Shank Racing has only twice had a car start in the top fifteen all season. Hélio Castroneves started 15th at St. Petersburg and Simon Pagenaud rolled off from 14th position at Long Beach. Juncos Hollinger Racing's only top fifteen start was 15th at Barber with Callum Ilott. A.J. Foyt Racing had both cars start in the top fifteen at Texas, Benjamin Pedersen was 13th with Santino Ferrucci in 14th, but Pedersen hasn't started in the top twenty in the other three races.

Lundgaard might lead the best of the rest, but he is overcompensating for RLLR's lack of pace. Jack Havery's average is 21.5, a quarter spot better than Graham Rahal's. Rahal's best starting position in the first four races was 19th at Barber.

While Sting Ray Robb is the only driver yet to start in the top twenty this season, the driver with the worst average starting position is Conor Daly. Daly sits on the bottom at 24.5, two spots worse than Robb. Daly started 25th or worse in the first three races before he cracked 20th at Barber.

Through three road/street course events, nine drivers have made an appearance in the Fast Six out of a maximum of 18. Lundgaard is the only one not from Andretti, McLaren, Ganassi and Penske to appear. 

Fifteen drivers have made it to the second round of qualifying out of a maximum of 36. Eight drivers made have it out of the first round of qualifying in all three races. Another five drivers have made it to round two at least twice, including Lundgaard, the only non-Andretti/McLaren/Ganassi/Penske driver to do so. 

The top four teams have won the last 17 pole positions. VeeKay won pole position at Barber last year, the most recent pole winner from outside those four organizations. Dating back to the start of the 2021 season, Dale Coyne Racing is the only other team to win a pole position. That came at the 2021 Grand Prix of Indianapolis with Romain Grosjean. 

Who is Out of it?

Historically, four races is enough to tell us who is out of the championship discussion.

Every champion since 1947 has had his first top ten finish come in one of the first four races of the season. The only champion to take more than three races to get his first top ten finish was Danny Sullivan in 1988, who was second in the fourth race of that season at Milwaukee.

Rinus VeeKay, Agustín Canapino, Simon Pagenaud, Santino Ferrucci, Jack Harvey, Conor Daly, Sting Ray Robb, Benjamin Pedersen and Devlin DeFrancesco did not score a top ten finish in the first four races of 2023. Those are nine drivers we can likely cross off as possible champions. 

Top ten finishes are important, but top five finishes are even more important. The only champion not to have a top five finish within the first four races of a season was Gil de Ferran in 2000. De Ferran's first top five result was his victory in the fifth race of the season at Nazareth.

Entering the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Hélio Castroneves, Marcus Armstrong, Graham Rahal, Felix Rosenqvist and Christian Lundgaard have finished in the top ten at least once in the first four races but do not have a top five result. They aren't in dire trouble, but history suggest they will want to get a strong result this weekend to have hopes hoisting the Astor Cup come September at Laguna Seca.

Eighty-six of 91 champions since 1947 had at least one podium finish within the first four races of the season. The exception are Chuck Stevenson in 1952, Jimmy Bryan in 1956, Al Unser in 1985, de Ferran in 2000 and Scott Dixon in 2018. Stevenson, Unser, de Ferran and Dixon all scored their first podium finish in the fifth race of the season. Bryan wasn't on the podium until the sixth race.

Alexander Rossi, David Malukas, Callum Ilott and Colton Herta have finished in the top five this season, but have yet to stand on a podium.

Last season, Will Power did not win until the seventh race of the season at Belle Isle. Power became the 28th champion in the last 91 not to win one of the first four races of the season.  It was the 16th time out of 91 champions that the champion did not win one of the first six races. It was the second time in five seasons the champion did not pick up his first victory until the seventh race of the season. Scott Dixon did not win until the seventh race of the 2018 season, which ended in Dixon's fifth championship. 

While recent champions won later than average in a season, ten of the 15 champions since reunification won within one of the first three races of the season. The other five champions took six races or longer to win their first race. Besides Dixon and Power, in 2010, Dario Franchitti didn't win until the sixth race at Indianapolis. Two years later, Ryan Hunter-Reay scored his first victory of the season in the eighth race of the season at Milwaukee. Dixon didn't win until the 11th race of 2013 at Pocono and still won the championship. 

Road to Indy

For the first time since St. Petersburg, all three Road to Indy series join IndyCar on a race weekend. For all three series the IMS road course will be their third race weekend of their respective 2023 seasons. 

Christian Rasmussen took victory at Barber Motorsports Park and it put Rasmussen on top of the championship through two races. The Dane has 86 points, five clear of Nolan Siegel, who has finished runner-up in both races this season. St. Petersburg winner Danial Frost has fallen to third in the championship after a tenth in Alabama. Frost is 15 points off the championship. 

Jacob Abel and Ernie Francis, Jr. are tied on 52 points while Josh Green has 48 points, one ahead of Hunter McElrea and Colin Kaminsky. Christian Bogle finds himself in ninth on 44 points, one ahead of Enaam Ahmed and James Roe, Jr. 

Reece Gold is on 37 points, but Gold switches from Juncos Hollinger Racing to HMD Motorsports starting this weekend. Jamie Chadwick has yet to finish in the top ten, but Chadwick has 36 points, two points more than Andretti Autosport teammate Louis Foster, who has had two accidents in the first two races. 

Kyffin Simpson has only 32 points after radio issues led to his disqualification at Barber. Jagger Jones and Matteo Nannini are tied on 30 points. Josh Pierson returns this weekend after missing Barber due to his FIA World Endurance Championship responsibilities. 

The Indy Lights race will take place at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday May 13 and it it scheduled for 35 laps.

Myles Rowe has won three consecutive USF Pro 2000 races. Rowe took race two in St. Petersburg and swept the Sebring round at the end of March. On 116 points, Rowe is 42 points clear of Kiko Porto and Francesco Pizzi. Porto had three podium finishes while Pizzi has three top ten finishes and the Italian's worst finish is seventh. 

Lirim Zendeli, who was second in the most recent race, and Jace Denmark, who was in the top five of the first three races of the season, are tied on 64 points with Joel Granfors a point back. Reece Ushijima has 49 points, two more than season opener winner Christian Brooks, who was absent from the Sebring round.

Jack William Miller and Jonathan Browne round out the top ten of the championship on 44 points and 42 points respectively. Jackson Lee is a point outside the top ten. Salvador de Alba, a winner last year on the IMS road course, has 37 points with Jordan Missig, Christian Weir and Yuven Sundaramoorthy rounding out the top fifteen. 

The reigning U.S. F2000 champion Michael d'Orlando has seen a rotten turn of events in the first two rounds. He is 17th in the championship on 29 points out of 20 drivers. D'Orlando was on pole position for the second Sebring race.

USF Pro 2000 has its first 25-lap race scheduled for 2:55 p.m. ET on Friday May 12 with the second race, also 25 laps in length, scheduled for 8:55 a.m. ET on Saturday May 13.

This will be a triple-header weekend for U.S. F2000, the first of three this season.

Simon Sikes leads the championship on 107 points, three ahead of Lochie Hughes. 

Sikes won the second Sebring race while he has two runner-up results and a fourth in the other three events. Sikes has started on pole position for the last three races. Hughes has won twice, the first race of each weekend, while finishing third and fourth in the other two races.

Thirty points off the championship lead is Evagoras Papasavvas with three top fives finishes. Nikita Johnson was third and first at St. Petersburg but was 16th and eighth in Sebring. It has Johnson fourth in the championship on 71 points. 

After a rough St. Petersburg round, Mac Clark was fourth and second at Sebring. Clark is on 55 points, three ahead of Jorge Garciarce. Jacob Douglas was third in the most recent race and Douglas is on 49 points.

Last year, Alex Quinn, a Formula Regional European Championship driver, swept the IMS road course weekend driving for Velocity Racing Development. Quinn did not compete again in any competition for the rest of the year. He most recently drove in the 24 Hours of Daytona in an LMP2 entry for PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports.

The first U.S. F2000 race will take place at 12:05 p.m. ET on Friday May 12. The remaining two races will be on Saturday May 13, one at 8:00 a.m. ET and the other at noon. All three races are scheduled to be 15 laps in distance. 

Fast Facts

This will be the seventh IndyCar race to take place on May 13 and the first since Will Power won the Fourth Grand Prix of Indianapolis held in 2017. 

Nine drivers have won on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They are Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Colton Herta, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden and Alexander Rossi.

Hélio Castroneves and Marcus Ericsson could become the tenth driver to win on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Rinus VeeKay, Josef Newgarden and Colton Herta are the only drivers to win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indy Lights and IndyCar. VeeKay and Herta is the only driver to win on the IMS road course in both Indy Lights and IndyCar. Jack Harvey or David Malukas could join VeeKay and Herta as drivers to win on the IMS road course in Indy Lights and IndyCar.

Rinus VeeKay is the only driver to have a first career IndyCar victory occur on the IMS road course. 

Patricio O'Ward or Sting Ray Robb could become the first driver to win on the IMS road course in Indy Pro 2000 and IndyCar. 

Kyle Kirkwood could become the first driver to win on the IMS road course in U.S. F2000 and IndyCar.

Alexander Rossi could become the second driver with consecutive victories on the IMS road course. The only driver to win consecutive IMS road course races was Will Power in 2017 and 2018.

The average starting position for an Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course winner is 3.932 with a median of second. 

Colton Herta became the first winner on the IMS road course from outside a top ten starting position last year when Herta won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis from 14th starting position. 

Eight of 13 IMS road course races have been won from the front row. 

The average number of lead changes in an IMS road course race is 8.384 with a median of ten.

Seven of 13 IMS road course races have had ten lead changes or more.

Only two IMS road course races have had fewer than five lead changes. The 2017 Grand Prix of Indianapolis had four lead changes and the second race of the 2020 Harvest Grand Prix had zero lead changes. Will Power won both races. 

The second race of the 2020 Harvest Grand Prix is the most recent occasion of a driver leading every lap in an IndyCar race.

The average number of cautions in an IMS road course race is two with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 7.615 with a median of five.

Last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis had a record eight cautions for a record 31 laps in mixed conditions. 

Only two other IMS road course races have had more than two cautions. The inaugural Grand Prix of Indianapolis had four cautions for 19 laps in 2014 and the 2019 race had three cautions for 12 laps. Simon Pagenaud won both those races.

Predictions

Colton Herta prevents his winless drought from going a full calendar year and Herta takes victory from a top five starting position. At least seven teams are represented in the second round of qualifying. Someone will drive from outside the top twenty on the grid to a top ten finish. Simon Pagenaud will not run out of fuel. Callum Ilott will not run into the back of any car regardless of the conditions. A.J. Foyt Racing will not lead a lap in this race. No car will cause a caution for being stuck in the grass. Marcus Armstrong will have another finish in the top eleven positions and be at least nine spots ahead of the next closest rookie. The championship lead will change hands. Sleeper: Christian Lundgaard.