Let's lay out the pieces.
Dixon started 15th...
He was spun on lap one...
Topped off on fuel under caution on lap four...
Restarted in 23rd on lap seven...
And there were no more caution periods...
And Dixon won the race.
Dixon winning is not unfathomable even after his start, but there is a piece missing. Shouldn't there be a caution after a well-timed pit stop or a change in weather conditions and Dixon switched to wet tires at the right time while the rest of the field slipped and slid on slicks and tip-toed back to the pit lane while Dixon chugged along at full bore?
You would think so, but that didn't happen.
So how did Scott Dixon, after facing the wrong direction seven corners into 1,190-corner race take victory? Let's get into the details.
There is an obvious answer, but we aren't going to jump right to that.
Fifteenth was not an advantageous starting position to begin with. Dropping outside the top twenty before you even complete a lap doesn't make it any easier, but that is where Dixon stood when he crossed the start/finish line at the end of lap one.
The #9 Chip Ganassi Racing team kind of had its hand forced at that point. At best, the team would get two or three positions under that caution as some teams would use it to top off on fuel and try to stretch fuel and make it to the finish with two more stops. Instead of stopping within the next ten laps, Dixon's crew decided to get the first stop out of the way, and hope some cautions would go their way.
Dixon's first stint was four laps.
When the race restarted, Dixon was in 23rd on lap seven. With the plan to conserve fuel, Dixon did not run blistering lap times, but he still gained group. He was 22nd second at the end of lap eight, 21st at the end of lap ten, 20th at the end of lap 13. By lap 14, the first round of pit stops began for the rest of the field. He was up to 17th at the end of that lap, 13th the lap after that, 12th on lap 16 and he cracked the top ten on lap 17. Twelve of the cars that restarted ahead of him had made a pit stop.
Again, Dixon was not running exceptionally quick. From lap eight to lap 17, his average lap time was 74.44203 seconds. Lap 17 was the first time he ran a sub-74 second lap (73.6952 seconds). In comparison, Graham Rahal's SLOWEST lap in that ten-lap period was a 73.5596 seconds. Rahal's average was 73.07919 seconds.
However, at lap 18 is when Dixon turns it up a bit. From lap 18 to lap 24, his average picks up to a 73.987-second lap. On lap 24, Rahal pits from the lead. At the end of lap 25, Dixon is third and Rahal has completed his out lap in seventh position.
Starting on lap 23, Dixon runs six consecutive laps in the 73-second bracket after running only three in the first 22 laps of the race, albeit the first seven of those were effectively under caution, so six in the first 15 green flag laps.
Rahal remains quicker. Dixon might be in the 73s, but barely. Lap 25 through lap 27 are all 73.9s. On lap 27, Dixon inherits the lead through the pit cycle. By lap 28 he back into the 74s. On fresh tires, Rahal runs an average of 73.58935 seconds from lap 26 to lap 31.
On lap 32, Dixon enters pit lane, completing his second stint, a 27-lap run of which 25 were green flag laps. There were only 54 laps remaining in the race when Dixon's second pit stop occurred, meaning one more 27-lap stint and Dixon should make it to the finish on one more pit stop.
Rahal inherits the lead while Dixon resumes racing in 14th, but the second round of pit stops is soon to start for the rest of the field. Despite averaging a 0.172-second slower lap from lap 34 to lap 39, Dixon moved up to eighth. But from lap 39 through lap 47 is where the race starts to turn for Dixon. The lap times between the two drivers are near identical, with Dixon holding the slight edge, 73.958 seconds to Rahal's 73.998. On lap 48, Rahal makes his second pit stop, returning to the track in third behind Dixon. Once Christian Lundgaard makes his second stop on lap 51, Dixon is back in the lead, 20 laps into Dixon's third stint.
Despite Dixon being 20 laps into a stint and Rahal having just started a new stint, this is where Dixon finds time. The New Zealander increased his lead by 0.8019 seconds from lap 53 through the end of lap 55, 25 laps into his stint while Rahal was only eight laps in. When Dixon took the lead on lap 52, his advantage was 6.0598 seconds. At the end of lap 58, the lap prior to him entering for his final stop, the lead was 6.1749 seconds. A tenth of a second may be minuscule, but Dixon held serve at the end of his penultimate stint when even a half-second lost could have changed the outcome of this race.
But that isn't where it gets interesting. It what Dixon does in the immediate aftermath of his third, and ultimately, final pit stop.
On lap 61, Dixon's first flier after his out lap, he runs his fastest lap of the race, a 73.3339-second lap. Up to that point, Dixon's fastest lap was a 73.6746 from lap 24. Dixon's lap 61 is 0.6902 seconds quicker than Rahal's lap 61. On lap 62, Dixon runs a 73.3656, his second fastest lap of the race, while Rahal runs 0.9906 seconds slower. At this point, it appears Rahal is losing time to Dixon, and he is. Rahal comes in on lap 63 for his final stop after only a 15-lap stint. On lap 63, Dixon runs a 73.5381, his third fastest lap of the race. The gap was about 29.5 seconds between the two drivers when Rahal entered pit lane.
Immediately after Rahal's stop, Dixon's lap time drops to a 74.3166 on lap 64. He runs five consecutive laps in the 74s.
Dixon was always going to inherit the lead once Rahal made his final pit stop, but it was a matter of how big the gap would be and how much time would be left in the race. But Rahal's team falls for Dixon's bluff. The #15 team sees it is losing time after Dixon changed tires, but it should have known Dixon could not afford for run 73.3s and 73.5s for the final 27 lap. The #15 crew should have sacrificed more time and then forced a greater fuel save in the closing laps.
Consider that on Rahal's second stint, his average lap time from lap 26 (the lap after his out lap) through lap 47 was a 73.805. That was only a 24-lap stint and was on average nearly two-tenths slower than Dixon's three laps from lap 61 to 63. Rahal's crew could have dared Dixon's team to keep up that pace because both sides knew Dixon could not keep it up for 27 laps. At that pace, Dixon was going to fall multiple laps short of the finish. Even if Dixon kept it up for only four or five laps more, the time he would lose coasting in the final laps would be too significant to win the race. Yet, the #15 RLLR crew played into the #9 Ganassi crew's hand.
From lap 65 to the finish, Dixon's average lap time is a 74.1909. Disregarding caution laps, in-laps and out-laps, seven of Dixon's slowest 12 laps occur during this portion of the race.
On the flip side, Rahal's average lap time over the final 21 circuits was a 73.878, just over three-tenths quicker than Dixon's average. During this 21-lap period, Dixon is fastest head-to-head on only three of the final 21 laps, lap 72, lap 73 and lap 84.
In case you are wondering, lap 72 is where Rahal is stuck behind AgustÃn Canapino and lap 73 is when Rahal is behind Marcus Armstrong. Over those two laps, Rahal lost 0.4372 seconds. Remember that number.
Despite more lap traffic to come, Rahal is faster than Dixon on the next ten laps, gaining on average 0.3753 seconds per lap over that period. Despite what you may think, Rahal didn't lose time stuck behind Ryan Hunter-Reay. Rahal still scrapped back 0.0132 seconds on lap 80, the lap where it appears Hunter-Reay should have let Rahal through going into turn seven but doesn't until they have finished the lap on the main straightaway. Would Rahal likely have made up more time if Hunter-Reay let him through a half-lap earlier? Probably, but Rahal still gained on Dixon despite the interference.
Where it goes wrong for Rahal is the penultimate lap. At the end of lap 83, the gap is 0.2689 seconds between Dixon and Rahal. Again, Rahal was averaging running 0.3753 seconds quicker than Dixon per lap over the previous ten laps, and then Rahal lost 0.595 seconds on the penultimate lap. The lead increased to 0.8639 seconds. In those previous ten laps, Rahal never ran a lap faster than 0.7076 seconds quicker than Dixon. That one bad lap set Rahal up to run faster than he had been able to run against Dixon.
What happens on the final lap? Rahal runs 0.386 seconds quicker than Dixon, slightly better than his average over the ten laps from lap 74 to lap 83, but Dixon held on by 0.4779 seconds. Remember how much time Rahal lost over lap 72 and lap 73 when stuck behind Canapino and Armstrong? It was 0.4372 seconds.
The three laps Dixon runs faster than Rahal in the final 21 laps is what decided it. Traffic helped Dixon, but it didn't not help Rahal either. Rahal was on point, but that penultimate lap where he lost nearly six-tenths of a second did more damage than any back-marker.
But there is one obvious answer on how Dixon won this race... he made one fewer green flag pit stop.
That is the obvious answer. Dixon didn't have to make six in-lap and out-laps under green flag conditions. He made four. Rahal made six.
If you take the final 78 laps of the race into consideration, Dixon's average lap time was 75.04417 seconds to Rahal's 75.13899 seconds, a difference of 0.09482 seconds. Multiple that over 78 laps and you get Dixon being 7.3983 seconds quicker. What was Dixon's lead on lap 64 after Rahal's final pit stop? It was 7.0590 seconds.
But if you remove the in-laps and the out-laps, Rahal has the faster average lap time at 74.2526 seconds to Dixon's 74.3721. A difference of 0.1194 seconds.
It is a combination of things that won Dixon this race. The caution at the start hurt Dixon but it bought him time. If that caution period was a lap short, perhaps Dixon cannot hold off Rahal in the final laps, but that caution took care of one pit stop for Dixon while it didn't take care of any for Rahal. On-track, Dixon ran at a precise pace to stretch the fuel while not sacrificing speed to get to the end of an 85-lap race, but he knew when to push it and spooked his competition.
The #9 team stuck to its plan and made the most dominant car on the day react when the #15 RLLR crew should have stuck to its guns and realized it was in control all along.
A pure hustle, plan and simple.
