Track Walk: Portland 2023

The 16th and penultimate round of the NTT IndyCar Series season brings Indy to Portland. Through the first 15 races there have been seven different winners. After opening the season with five different winners in the first five races, there have been only been two new winners in the last ten races. Three drivers have combined to win eight of the last ten races. Since returning to the IndyCar schedule, there have been four different winners in the last four Portland races. Stretching back to the days of Champ Car, seven different drivers representing seven different countries have won the last seven Portland races.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday September 3 with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 6:00 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: Noon ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 3:30 p.m. ET 

Final Practice: 8:15 p.m. ET (30 minutes)

Sunday:
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (110 laps)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

And Then There Were Two

After the events of Gateway, only two drivers could claim the Astor Cup for the 2023 IndyCar championship, and no matter what, the championship will return to Chip Ganassi Racing. 

It will be Álex Palou versus Scott Dixon over the next two rounds to decide the title, but it could be settled this weekend. Palou has a second consecutive chance to clinch the championship. At Gateway, the Catalan lost 27 points to Dixon, but Palou still has a 74-point lead entering this race and he has a hand on the trophy as his championship is already greater than one race victory. 

It Palou exits Portland with a championship lead of 54 points or more, he will not even have to show up to Laguna Seca. The championship will be his. 

Palou will clinch the championship if he scores at least 34 points this weekend, which means...

Finishing third or better... 

Or finishing fourth with at least two bonus points...

Or finishing fifth with the maximum four bonus points...

For Scott Dixon, based on the assumption Palou does start this weekend's race, he will need to score at least 26 points to remain alive for the championship, meaning Dixon cannot finish worse than seventh with no bonus points. He could finish eighth or ninth with a handful of bonus points to remain alive. 

However, Dixon's goal to keep the championship alive into Laguna Seca should be decreasing the deficit to at least 48 points, because not only will Palou likely start at Portland, but he will also likely start the Laguna Seca race as well. 

In that case, Dixon cannot finish worse than fifth this weekend in hopes of winning the championship. 

Not much has separated these two drivers this season. Palou is tied for the most victories in IndyCar with four. Dixon is one of four drivers with multiple victories. Palou does have double the number of podium finishes, but Palou and Dixon are first and second in top five finishes with 11 and nine respectively. They are first and second in top ten finishes with 15 and 14 respectively. 

After leading 13 laps in the first 13 races, Dixon has led 157 laps in the last two events. Palou's 259 las led this season is second most in IndyCar, but he has led only 13 laps in the last six races. He led in seven of the first nine races, and led at least ten laps in at least six of those events. 

Head-to-head, Palou has finished ahead of Dixon in 11 of 15 races, and Palou has not finished worse than eighth this season. Dixon does have 12 consecutive top ten finishes. After not being the top Ganassi finisher in any of the first 13 races, Dixon has won the last two races. Dixon has been the second best Ganassi finisher in 11 races this season. The exceptions are Long Beach and the Indianapolis 500. 

Palou has been the top Ganassi starter in eight of 15 races while Dixon has only done it three times. Palou has started ahead of Dixon in 11 races this season.

Who Has the Best Chance for a First Victory of the Season at Portland?

Two races, 205 laps remain in the 2023 season, but time is running out for a victory, and there are plenty of notable drivers who have yet to stand on the top step of the podium.

Last week was Patricio O'Ward's fourth runner-up finish of the season, but victory has eluded the Mexican driver. O'Ward is the top driver in the championship without a victory, sitting in fourth. He is the most recent driver to finish in the top five of the championship without a victory. He led 18 laps at Gateway, but those were his first laps led since he led one during a pit cycle at Detroit. He has only led five races this season, three of which have been ovals. Besides the one lap led at Detroit, the only road/street course he has led was St. Petersburg, where he led 23 circuits. 

Will Power has won a race in 16 consecutive seasons, currently the second longest streak in IndyCar history. Power does have four podium finishes, including two runner-up results. He has led 180 laps this season, but 119 of those were in the first Iowa race, then he led 30 more laps in the second race. Power has led 31 laps in the other 13 races. The only other time he has led more than five laps in a race was 14 laps in Detroit. Power won at Portland in 2019 and he finished second in last year's race. 

Alexander Rossi's six top five finishes are his most since the 2019 season, but Rossi is on the verge of having his third winless season in the last four. Rossi has led only 12 laps this season, four of which came last week at Gateway. While he has finished in the top five of the last two races, he did not finish better than tenth in the previous six races.

Not only is Colton Herta winless, but he is on the verge of career lows in multiple categories. Herta has one podium finish. Last season he had only two. He has three top five finishes, currently matching his fewest which were in his rookie season. Herta has led only 77 laps. He has never led fewer than 100 laps in a season. 

Romain Grosjean is not only running out of time for a first victory this season but for his first career victory to come in 2023. After finishing second in two of the first four races and leading 90 laps, his best finish in the last 11 races is sixth, and he has led only four laps.

This hasn't been the greatest season for Graham Rahal, but he should have some hope for Portland. In the most recent road course race, Rahal started on pole position, led a race-high 36 laps only to finish second to Scott Dixon. On natural-terrain road courses this season, Rahal's average finish is 7.8333 compared to a street course average of 13.4 on street courses and an oval average of 22.8. Two years ago, Rahal led 36 laps at Portland before a poorly timed caution shuffled him back to tenth. Last year, he finished fifth and led two laps.

Rookie of the Year Battle

With the ovals behind us, we can focus on the rookie of the year battle because all four full-timers will contest the final two events. Mathematically, any of the four could be rookie of the year, but it is really a two driver battle. 

Marcus Armstrong survived not running the ovals and heads into Portland as the top rookie with 179 points, and Armstrong is 20th in the championship despite missing five races. His points per start average of 17.9 has him on pace 268.5 points, just off Felix Rosenqvist, who is 13th in the championship on 270 points. 

It isn't over yet, as Agustín Canapino is only 20 points behind Armstrong, but the problem is Armstrong has finished ahead of Canapino in eight of the ten races they have shared the track together. In the two races Canapino got the better of Armstrong he was five spots ahead of him at Road America and three spots ahead in the August IMS road course race. 

Armstrong has yet to go three consecutive races without a top ten result, and he has finished 13th and 24th in his last two outings. The New Zealander has four top ten finishes while Canapino's best finish this season is 12th. Canapino has finished outside the top fifteen in the last five races. 

Based on math, Sting Ray Robb and Benjamin Pedersen could still be the 2023 IndyCar rookie of the year. Robb is only 57 points behind Armstrong, but Robb's best finish this season was 16th in the St. Petersburg season opener. He has finished outside the top twenty in 12 of 15 races. Pedersen is 72 points behind Armstrong. Pedersen has finished outside the top twenty in eight consecutive races and in 13 of 15 races this season. 

Though only four rookies could win rookie of the year this year, there will be two additional rookies on the grid this weekend.

Tom Blomqvist will be back in the #60 Meyer Shank Racing Honda, as Blomqvist will close the season as the driver of the #60 Honda. Simon Pagenaud continues his recovery after his accident at Mid-Ohio. Blomqvist made his IndyCar debut at Toronto, where he failed to complete a lap in the race. 

Along with Blomqvist's return is a debutant. Estonian Jüri Vips will drive the #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda in the final two races of the season. Vips spent the previous two seasons competing in Formula Two. He won twice at the Baku weekend in 2021 on his way to finishing sixth in the championship. Last year, his only victory was the Monza sprint race, the highlight of finishing 11th in the championships. 

The Estonian is familiar with a few drivers on the IndyCar grid. Vips and Armstrong were teammates in the 2017 ADAC Formula 4 Championship where Vips won the total by 4.5 points over Armstrong. Last season, Vips and Armstrong were teammates in Formula Two where Vips scored 21 points more than Armstrong.

Vips was a Red Bull junior driver, and he participated in practice at the 2022 Spanish Grand Prix. In June 2022, Vips was suspended and released from the Red Bull junior program after using a racial slur on a livestream.

Manufacturers' Championship

Along with the overall championship and rookie of the year, the manufacturers have a championship of their own that will be decided over the final two races. 

Honda currently leads with 1,299 points. It is 43 points ahead of Chevrolet. Honda has won ten races this season, double Chevrolet's total. Honda's most victories since the return of engine competition is 11, which came in 2018. Honda has won three consecutive races and seven in the last nine. Four of Chevrolet's five victories have been on ovals. The only road or street course race Chevrolet has won this season was Barber Motorsports Park with Scott McLaughlin in April.

Three Honda teams have won a race this season with five different drivers while Team Penske is the only Chevrolet team to have won this season, and it has won with only two drivers. 

It has been even in terms of podium finishes. Honda leads with 23 to Chevrolet's 22. Honda has swept the podium in two races, having done it at Long Beach and Toronto. Chevrolet's only podium sweep was the first race of the Iowa doubleheader. When it comes to top five finishes, Honda has a 38 to 37 edge. Each has five drivers in the top ten of the championship, but Honda holds an eight to seven edge in top 15 drivers in the championship, and Honda has 11 of the top 20.

In the four races since Portland has returned to the schedule, Honda and Chevrolet have equally split the events. Honda won in 2018 with Takuma Sato and in 2021 with Álex Palou. Both of Chevrolet's victories have been with Team Penske. Will Power won in 2019 and Scott McLaughlin won last year. 

Honda has also won 11 pole positions, nearly double Chevrolet's six.

While Honda has the advantage in victories, podium finishes, top five finishes and pole positions, Chevrolet has led more laps. The Bowtie Brigade has led a combined 1,176 laps while Honda drivers have led only 879 laps. However, Honda drivers have led 635 of the 845 laps run on road/street courses this season, 75.1479%. Chevrolet led the lion's share of the oval laps, 966 out of 1,210 laps, or 79.834%.

The Japanese manufacturer might have finished first and third at Gateway, but neither driver contributed to Honda's manufacturer score, as Scott Dixon and David Malukas were each onto their fifth engine of the season. Once an entry goes beyond the four-engine limit, it can no longer earn manufacturer points. 

Seven Honda entries ineligible for manufacturer points while only three Chevrolets are ineligible. Along with Dixon and Malukas, the Álex Palou, Marcus Armstrong, Kyle Kirkwood, Hélio Castroneves and Jüri Vips cannot score manufacturer points in the final two races. 

On the Chevrolet side, Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin and Agustín Canapino are the only ineligible drivers. 

Chevrolet won the manufacturers' championship last year while winning 11 of 17 races. Honda won the manufacturers' championship in four years prior to Chevrolet's triumph in 2022. Since 2012, Chevrolet has won seven of 11 manufacturers' championship.  

Road to Indy

For two of the three Road to Indy series, Portland marks the final weekend of the season, and two champions will be decided. 

For Indy Lights, this is the antepenultimate race before the Laguna Seca doubleheader closes out that championship. Eight drivers are still mathematically eligible for the Indy Lights championship.  

Christian Rasmussen picked up his fourth victory of the season at Gateway and Rasmussen has 416 points, 51 points more than Hunter McElrea in second. Rasmussen has won three of the last four races. McElrea has seven consecutive top five finishes, including three consecutive podium finishes. 

Jacob Abel sits third in the championship, 79 points off Rasmussen, as Abel has four consecutive top five finishes. Nolan Siegel has slipped to fourth in the championship as Siegel has one top five finish in the last five races. He had finished first or second in four of the first six races of this season. 

Louis Foster rounds out the top five in the championship, 107 points off Rasmussen. Foster was second at Gateway and he has not had consecutive top five results so far in 2023. Reece Gold is 134 points behind the Dane. Gold has one podium finish since his victory in Detroit. 

James Roe, Jr. and Danial Frost are the final drivers alive for the title. Roe, Jr. is 142 points back while Frost is 153 points off the championship lead. 

The Indy Lights race will take place at 1:20 p.m. ET on Sunday September 3. The race is scheduled for 35 laps or 55 minutes. 

Along with Indy Lights, USF Pro 2000 and U.S. F2000 will each run a triple-header this weekend to close out their respective 2023 seasons. In USF Pro 2000, only three drivers have a shot at the championship.

Myles Rowe has 333 points and holds a 58-point lead over Kiko Porto and an 88-point lead over Salvador de Alba with 99 points left on the table. Rowe will clinch the championship if he has a 66-point lead after the first race of the weekend. 

Rowe leads all of USF Pro 2000 with five victories while Porto scored his first victory of the season last weekend at Circuit of the Americas. De Alba's only victory was at Indianapolis Raceway Park in May, meaning Rowe holds the tiebreaker over both drivers. Rowe has finished ahead of each Porto and de Alba in nine of 15 races this season. 

Lirim Zendeli is up to fourth in the championship on 225 points after four consecutive top five finishes and seven consecutive top ten finishes. Zendeli is a point ahead of Michael d'Orlando, who has won three times, but he has finished outside the top ten in eight of 15 races. Francesco Pizzi is down to sixth on 218 points. Joel Granfors was not entered in Austin and Granfors is eighth on 206 points, seven ahead of Jace Denmark.

Jonathan Browne and Jack William Miller round out the top ten on 188 points and 183 points respectively. 

All three USF Pro 2000 races will be 30 laps or 50 minutes in length, the first of which is Friday September 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET. The second race will be at 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday September 2. The final race of the 2023 USF Pro 2000 will be Sunday September 3 at 6:15 p.m. ET.

In U.S. F2000, four drivers are alive for the championship, but Simon Sikes has a commanding lead. Sikes has 368 points, 69 points ahead of Lochie Hughes, meaning if Sikes does not lose three points to Hughes in the first Portland race, Sikes will clinch the championship. 

Sikes has won five races and finished on the podium ten times in 15 races while Hughes has four victories and eight podium finishes, but Hughes has only one podium finish in the last four races, which included three consecutive results of 15th or worse. 

Nikita Johnson and Mac Clark both have an outside chance at the championship. Johnson is only 79 points behind Sikes while Clark is 94 points back. Clark will be eliminated should Sikes start one of the three races this weekend. Johnson won the second race of the season at St. Petersburg, and he has seven podium finishes with 11 top five results. Clark has won twice with five podium finishes and eight top ten finishes.

Johnson and Clark both made their USF Pro 2000 debuts last week. Johnson was third and first in the two races while Clark was second from pole position in the first race and third in the second race.

Evagoras Papasavvas is only nine points behind Clark in fifth. Papasavvas won at Mid-Ohio in July and he has five podium finishes with seven top ten finishes. 

U.S. F2000 will run three 25-lap or 45-minute races this weekend. The first will be Friday September 1 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The second is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET on Saturday September 2 with the season finale scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday September 3. 

Fast Facts

This will be the 18th IndyCar race to take place on September 3 and the first since Alexander Rossi won at Watkins Glen in 2017. That was IndyCar's most recent Watkins Glen race. 

The only driver with multiple victories on September 3 is Tony Bettenhausen, who won on September 3 in 1949 and 1951 at DuQuoin. 

Sting Ray Robb turns 21 years old on race day. 

Robb could become the tenth driver to win an IndyCar race on his birthday. The most recent birthday winner was Dan Wheldon at Iowa on June 22, 2008. 

Lundgaard would become the youngest birthday winner. Sam Hornish, Jr. and Scott Dixon both won on their 27th birthdays. Hornish won at Kansas on July 2, 2006. Dixon won at Mid-Ohio on July 22, 2007.

Only one of the last 16 Portland races has had an American winner (A.J. Allmendinger 2006). 

Ten of the first 12 Portland races had American winners. Emerson Fittipaldi won the other two Portland races (1989 and 1993).

A.J. Allmendinger is one of four drivers to have scored their first IndyCar victory at Portland. The other three are Al Unser, Jr., Alex Zanardi and Mark Blundell.

Newman/Haas Racing leads all teams with eight Portland victories. Team Penske is second with six Portland victories. 

The only other teams with multiple Portland victories are Chip Ganassi Racing with three and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing with two. 

No driver has ever won in IndyCar and Indy Lights at Portland. Five drivers entered in this year's race have won at Portland in Indy Lights (Patricio O'Ward, Rinus VeeKay, David Malukas, Kyle Kirkwood and Benjamin Pedersen).

The average starting position for a Portland winner is 3.8571 with a median of second. 

Eight Portland races have been won from pole position and seven races have been won from the second starting position. Twenty-three of 28 Portland races have been won from a top five starting position. 

Only twice has Portland been won from outside the top ten (Mark Blundell in 1997 (11th) and Takuma Sato in 2018 (20th)).

The average number of lead changes in a Portland race is 6.0714 with a median of six. 

The last seven Portland races have had at least seven lead changes. 

There have been at least two lead changes in every Portland race.

The average number of cautions in a Portland race is 2.142 with a median of one. The average number of caution laps in a Portland race is 8.1428 with a median of six. 

There have been six caution-free Portland races, most recently in 2007. 

Five of them first nine Portland races were caution-free 

Nine Portland races have had exactly one caution, including last year's race. 

Predictions

Will Power gets his first victory of the season, and Álex Palou clinches his second championship with a top seven finish. Power leads less than 75 laps. Scott Dixon is the best finishing Chip Ganassi Racing driver. Josef Newgarden does not finish 25th. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have more top ten finishers than Andretti Autosport and McLaren. Marcus Armstrong will be the top finishing rookie by at least six positions. Tom Blomqvist makes it to lap two, but finishes behind Hélio Castroneves. At least one driver without a top ten finish in at least the last six races finishes in the top ten. There will not be a caution in the first corner of the race. Sleeper: Graham Rahal.