The 13th round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season takes place on the streets of Nashville for the third Big Machine Music City Grand Prix. Fittingly, only 13 drivers remain mathematically eligible for the IndyCar championship, as only 270 points remain on the table. Last year, with five races remaining in the season, 23 drivers were mathematically eligible for the Astor Cup. After this weekend, a driver must be within 216 points of the championship lead to have a chance at the title, meaning at least three drivers are already in danger of being dropped.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday August 7 with green flag scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Dave Burns and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Dave Burns and Dillon Welch will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Friday:
First Practice: 4:00 p.m. ET (75 minutes)
Saturday:
Second Practice: 11:40 a.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 2:45 p.m. ET
Qualifying: 2:45 p.m. ET
Final Practice: 6:25 p.m. ET (30 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 12:30 p.m. ET (80 laps)
Race: 12:30 p.m. ET (80 laps)
* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock
Final Street Course Race
Nashville marks the final street course race of the IndyCar season. Through four street events, Honda has won all of them and six consecutive dating back to last season. Honda has taken nine of 12 podium positions in the four street races, including sweeping the top five at Long Beach and the top four at Toronto.
Unsurprisingly, the championship leader leads all drivers in street course points this season. Álex Palou has scored 149 points in street course races this season, twenty more than the next closest driver. Palou has finished first and second in the last two street course races. However, the Catalan driver’s worst finish came on a street course this season. That was eighth at St. Petersburg. Palou has 12 consecutive top ten finishes on street courses, which includes six podium results and eight top five finishes.
Palou’s Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Marcus Ericsson is second in street course points on 129 points. Ericsson’s worst street course result was 11th at Toronto. Three of Ericsson’s four career victories have come on street courses, including St. Petersburg earlier this season. Long Beach winner Kyle Kirkwood is third in street course points on 113 points. Will Power is two points behind Kirkwood in the street course standings. Power had three consecutive top ten finishes on street courses before ending up 14th at Toronto.
Christian Lundgaard and Scott Dixon are tied on 106 points in street course races. Lundgaard won the most recent street course race at Toronto. Prior to Toronto, his best street course finish this season was ninth at St. Petersburg. Dixon has three top five finishes in four street course races this season with 27th at Long Beach as his only blemish.
Two of Colton Herta’s three top five finishes this season occurred on street courses, and Herta has 96 points from these four events, one more point than Scott McLaughlin, whose best street course result this season was sixth at Toronto. Marcus Armstrong is ninth in street course points on 93, one more than Felix Rosenqvist.
Álex Palou’s closest championship challenger, Josef Newgarden, is 11th in street course points this season. Newgarden has 87 points from the four street races. His best street race result was fifth at Toronto. Alexander Rossi has two top five finishes on street courses, but he was 22nd and 16th in the other two and Rossi is two points behind Newgarden in the street course standings.
Rossi is one point ahead of Arrow McLaren teammate Patricio O’Ward in the street course standings. Since finishing second at St. Petersburg, O’Ward’s average finish in the last three street races is 17th. Graham Rahal and Romain Grosjean round out the top fifteen on street course points with 73 points and 68 points respectively.
Juncos Hollinger Racing teammates Callum Ilott and Agustín Canapino are tied on 58 street course points. David Malukas has scored 48 points on street courses this season, one more point Santino Ferrucci. Sting Ray Robb has 45 street course points, one more than Devlin DeFrancesco and Jack Harvey. Rinus VeeKay has 43 street course points.
Conor Daly (38 points), Simon Pagenaud (37), Hélio Castroneves (36), Benjamin Pedersen (26), Ryan Hunter-Reay (5) and Tom Blomqvist (5) round out the street course standings.
Last year, Dixon was the top driver in street course points with 193 points, 21 points clear of Palou. Power was third on 156 points, six more than Newgarden while McLaughlin rounded out the top five on 145 points.
Can Newgarden Rule His Hometown?
While Newgarden returns to his hometown as the winner of the two most recent IndyCar races, there are reasons to be hesitant expecting the party to continue into his backyard.
Newgarden has won four races this season, but all those were on ovals and his last six victories have been on ovals. Newgarden has not won on a street course since Long Beach last year and eight of his last ten victories have been on ovals. Prior to this run, Newgarden had six of his previous ten victories occur on a road or street course.
The Tennessean has only 87 points from street course races this season, and Newgarden enters this weekend’s race having scored 62 fewer points on street courses compared to Álex Palou. In the championship, Newgarden is 80 points behind Palou with a goal of being within 49 points of the championship lead at the end of the penultimate round at Portland.
Palou has finished ahead of Newgarden in all four street course races this season and in all four natural-terrain road course races this season. Along with his best street course result being fifth this season, Newgarden has only made the Fast Six once this season at a street race. That was Detroit, where he started fifth. He has finished worse than his starting position in three of four street races.
Expanding on his qualifying form, Newgarden’s two most recent pole positions came on street courses, Long Beach 2021 and Belle Isle 2022. Five of his 16 career pole positions have come on street courses, but he has never won from pole position at a street race.
Newgarden has led the most laps in IndyCar this season, but of the 504 laps he has led, only 35 laps have come on a road or street course. He did lead 27 laps at Long Beach in April before he had to conserve fuel in his final stint, which caused him to drop down to ninth after running in a podium position for much of that race.
After finishing first or second in seven of 11 street course races from 2019 to 2021, Newgarden’s only podium finish on a street course since the start of the 2022 season is his Long Beach victory last season. His seven street course starts without a podium finish is his longest drought since a 14-race run from the first Houston race in 2013 through the second Belle Isle race in 2015. Newgarden is looking to avoid his first season without a podium finish on a street course since 2018.
Newgarden went from 12th to tenth in the inaugural Music City Grand Prix two years ago. Last year, Newgarden started and finished sixth, but he led 12 laps, sacrificing the lead under caution for the Kyle Kirkwood-David Malukas incident.
It may seem unthinkable that Team Penske could go winless on a street course, especially after it won three of five street races last season, but Team Penske did not win a street race in 2021 and before that Penske did not win a street race in 2018 either. In each of those seasons, Penske was runner-up in three street course races. Penske’s only podium finish on a street course this season was second at Detroit with Will Power.
Intra-Team Battles
With 12 races in the bag, each team has a firm feeling of who is leading the way or if the team has a good balance in its lineup.
Chip Ganassi Racing has three of the top four drivers in the championship, and championship leader Álex Palou has been the clear leader in the Ganassi camp. Palou has been the top Ganassi finished in eight races this season, including in five of the last six races. Marcus Ericsson has been the top Ganassi finisher in the other four races. While Scott Dixon has not been the top Ganassi finisher in one race this season, he has been the second best Ganassi finisher in ten of 12 races this season.
In qualifying, Palou has been the top qualifier in six races while Dixon and Ericsson has each been on top in three races.
Josef Newgarden is second in the championship, and Newgarden is leading the Team Penske battle being the top Penske finisher seven times. Will Power has been the top Penske driver four times while Scott McLaughlin’s only time being the top Penske finisher was his Barber Motorsports Park victory.
It has been rather even in qualifying. Power leads the way with five times on top, while McLaughlin has been fastest four times and Newgarden has led Penske in qualifying three times.
Like Palou, Patricio O’Ward has been the clear Arrow McLaren leader. O’Ward has been the top McLaren finisher eight times while Felix Rosenqvist has been on top three times while the only time Alexander Rossi was been on top was at the Indianapolis 500. O’Ward has been the top McLaren starter seven times while Rosenqvist has been the fastest McLaren five times while Rossi has yet to be the top qualifier.
Andretti Autosport has a similar breakdown as Team Penske. Colton Herta leads the Andretti group with seven times on top, Kyle Kirkwood is second on four and Romain Grosjean is third on one, which was Grosjean’s runner-up result at Barber. In qualifying, Herta leads with five times on top with Kirkwood fastest four times and Grosjean fastest three times.
Christian Lundgaard is responsible for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing’s only victory, and Lundgaard is leading the RLLR battle with seven times as best finisher. Despite having a best finish of 13th, Jack Harvey has been the top RLLR driver in three races while Graham Rahal has been on top only twice. In qualifying, Lundgaard has been fastest six times, but Rahal is next with four while Harvey and Katherine Legge have each been the top RLLR qualifier once.
Callum Ilott has been in control of Juncos Hollinger Racing. Ilott has been the top JHR finisher ten times and top qualifier nine times. Agustín Canapino has been the top JHR finisher in the last two street course races.
At Ed Carpenter Racing, Rinus VeeKay has been the top finisher eight times, including in the five races since Conor Daly was dismissed from the team. Daly had been the top ECR finisher in four of the first seven races. In qualifying, VeeKay has the clear advantage, leading ECR ten times with Ed Carpenter having been the fastest at Texas and in the second Iowa race.
Daly has been the top finisher for two teams this season. He was the top Meyer Shank Racing driver at Mid-Ohio when he filled in for Simon Pagenaud. Pagenaud was the top MSR finisher in four of the first eight races. Hélio Castroneves leads the team having finished best in the stable seven times. Castroneves has also been the best MSR starter seven times to Pagenaud’s five.
This week, Castroneves has a new challenger within the MSR camp. Linus Lundqvist will make his IndyCar debut in the #60 Honda. The 2022 Indy Lights champion, Lundqvist replaces Simon Pagenaud, who continues to recover from his Mid-Ohio accident.
David Malukas has been getting the best of Sting Ray Robb at Dale Coyne Racing. Malukas has been the top finisher eight times to Robb’s four, and Malukas has been the top qualifier in 11 of 12 races. Robb’s only time on top was at Long Beach.
A.J. Foyt Racing has an interesting split. Santino Ferrucci has been the top finish ten times, but Ferrucci and Benjamin Pedersen have each been the top Foyt starter in six races.
Will McLaren Win a Race?
Twelve races are complete, four teams have won a race, but the Arrow McLaren has captured none of them. Last year, McLaren won two of the first 12 races.
This year has not been without close calls. Patricio O’Ward was runner-up in three of the first five races. McLaren has had a podium finisher in six of the first 12 races, including putting two cars on the podium in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. The team has had at least one top five finisher in nine races this season. McLaren has had at least one top ten finisher in 20 consecutive races.
But victory has remained elusive.
For O’Ward, he has made 17 starts since his most recent victory just over a year ago at Iowa when the Mexican driver swooped in and claimed the lead when Josef Newgarden suffered a suspension failure in the closing stages of the race. This is O’Ward’s longest winless drought since the first 25 races of his career. Since his most recent victory, O’Ward has led 164 laps, but the only time he has led the most laps in a race during that time was the Indianapolis 500 this past May.
Alexander Rossi is the second best McLaren driver in the championship and he has four top five finishes and eight top ten finishes this season, but Rossi has not been knocking on the door. The American has led only eight laps through the first 12 races, all eight of those laps came between the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500 and Detroit. Last season, Rossi led only 70 laps across three races. While Rossi has three top ten finishes in the last five events, his best finish during that time is tenth.
Felix Rosenqvist is coming off a fourth-place finish in the most recent race at Iowa, and he has three top ten finishes this season, but Rosenqvist has finished outside the top fifteen in five races. The Swede has led 42 laps this season, but 33 of those laps were in the Indianapolis 500. Of the 204 laps McLaren has led this season, 76 were in the Indianapolis 500, 37.254% of the team’s laps led this season. The two laps Rosenqvist led in the most recent race at Iowa were his first since Indianapolis. Since the Indianapolis 500, McLaren drivers have led only a combined four laps.
After starting each of the first seven races in the top ten, Rosenqvist has started outside the top ten in three of the last five events.
This team went winless in the 2019 and 2020 seasons though the team had runner-up finishes in each of those years. O’Ward is responsible for McLaren’s last four victories in IndyCar, which is tied for the most for this team, which originated as FAZZT Race Team in 2010. Only two other drivers have won for this organization. Simon Pagenaud won four times and James Hinchcliffe won three times.
McLaren has had a podium finisher in two of four street course races this season, and it has put multiple drivers in the top five in two of four street races this season, but the team’s most recent street course victory was the second Belle Isle race in 2021 with O’Ward, 11 street course races ago.
Indy Lights
The Indy Lights championship swung at Iowa, and a game of musical chairs has taken place in the interim. Nashville will be the ninth of 14 Indy Lights races this season.
With his Iowa victory, Christian Rasmussen reclaimed the championship lead as Nolan Siegel spun and was knocked out with suspension damage. Rasmussen has 281 points, 22 points ahead of Siegel. Rasmussen’s Iowa victory was his second of the season. After winning two consecutive races, Siegel has finished 15th in the last two events.
Jacob Abel was runner-up for the second time this season at Iowa. Abel is 43 behind Rasmussen with Hunter McElrea 46 points back. McElrea has four consecutive top five finishes. Louis Foster rounds out the top five on 228 points, 25 points clear of Reece Gold.
Danial Frost finds himself in seventh on 193 points, six points ahead of James Roe, Jr. Kyffin Simpson and Ernie Francis, Jr. round out the top ten on 176 points and 172 points respectively. Jagger Jones is 11th on 154 points, one more than Rasmus Lindh, who was third at Iowa.
There will be a few driver changes. After Matthew Brabham finished fourth at Iowa in a late substitute role at Juncos Hollinger Racing, Brabham moves to the #47 Cape Motorsports entry. Taking over the #75 JHR entry is Victor Franzoni. The 2017 Pro Mazda champion Franzoni will run the #75 entry in the remaining road and street course races this season. Franzoni won at Road America in Indy Lights in 2018. He was fifth in the championship that year.
Abel Motorsports will have two new entrants this weekend, both drivers moving up from USF Pro 2000. Francesco Pizzi will drive the #55 entry for the first of four races this season. Pizzi will run on the IMS road course next week and then the Laguna Seca doubleheader. Pizzi is sixth in USF Pro 2000 championship. Along with Pizzi, Yuven Sundaramoorthy will drive the #57 Abel entry. Sundaramoorthy is 14th in USF Pro 2000 and the Wisconsin-native will also run at Portland and Laguna Seca.
Indy Lights will race at 10:15 a.m. ET on Sunday August 6. The race is scheduled for 35 laps.
Fast Facts
This will be the seventh IndyCar race held on August 6 and the first since Michael Andretti won at Michigan in 1989.
Frank Elliott swept a pair of races on the 1.25-mile Coati Speedway board oval in Santa Rosa, California on August 6, 1922. Mario Andretti swept a doubleheader at Mont-Tremblant on August 6, 1967. A.J. Foyt scored his 60th career victory on August 6, 1978 at Texas World Speedway.
The average starting position for a Nashville winner is 16th.
Among active IndyCar tracks, the only others to have an average starting position for a winner worse than fifth are Texas (5.111), St. Petersburg (5.25), Iowa (7.157) and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway (7.5046).
Marcus Ericsson won from 18th in 2021 and Scott Dixon won from 14th in 2022.
The last circuit to have three consecutive races won from outside the top ten was Belle Isle. Ericsson won from 15th in the first Belle Isle race in 2021. Patricio O’Ward won from 16th in the second Belle Isle race in 2021. Will Power won the 2022 Belle Isle race from 16th starting position.
Scott Dixon has won five times when starting outside the top ten, an IndyCar record.
Ten drivers entered in this Nashville race have won at least once from a starting position outside the top ten (Dixon - 5; Hélio Castroneves, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Graham Rahal, Will Power - 3; Colton Herta, Marcus Ericsson, Josef Newgarden - 2; Álex Palou, Patricio O’Ward - 1).
Of those ten drivers, only Castroneves, Rahal and Palou have not win from outside the top ten on a street course.
The average number of lead changes in a Nashville race is 3.5. There were four lead changes in 2021 and three lead changes in 2022.
Among active IndyCar tracks, the only one that averages fewer than 3.5 lead changes per race is Laguna Seca (3.083).
Both Nashville races have had nine cautions. The 2021 race had 33 caution laps and the 2022 race had 36 caution laps.
Five of the 18 cautions at Nashville were for incidents in turn nine. Turn four has been the location of three cautions while turn ten has been the site of two cautions.
The longest green flag run between the two Nashville races is 18 laps, lap 57-74, in the 2021 race.
The average green flag run was 4.4 laps in 2021 and 5.5 laps in 2022.
The first caution came on lap two in 2021 and lap eight in 2022.
The final green flag run was three laps in 2021 and two laps in 2022.
Predictions
Colton Herta closes the deal and gets his first victory of the season, and Herta will start in the top six as well. Honda will have two podium finishers, but Josef Newgarden finishes ahead of Álex Palou for the first time on something than an oval this season. Both Newgarden and Palou make it to the second round of qualifying. There will be four cautions or fewer for 18 caution laps or fewer. There will not be a red flag. At least two incidents will be in turn nine. Alexander Rossi does not get caught in a lap one incident. Christian Lundgaard does not make it out of the first round of qualifying, but he finishes at least five spots better than his starting spot. Marcus Armstrong is the best rookie finisher by at least six positions. Callum Ilott gets his first top ten finish since Texas. No drivers will be disqualified. Sleeper: Romain Grosjean.
