In 2024, the final days of February mean the final days of the Formula One offseason, as Formula One is set for its earliest start since 1992, and it all begins on a Saturday night in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Along with the different day of the week, this season is set to be the longest in Formula One history. Twenty-four races are slated to take place over the span of 282 days, and this season will take place in ten of the 12 months.
On the grid, all 20 drivers that competed in the 2023 finale from Abu Dhabi are in the same seats for the 2024 season opener. However, we already know of at least two seats that will change in 2025, but that discussion can wait for another day.
Max Verstappen is attempting to win his fourth consecutive World Drivers' Championship. It would be the fifth time a driver has won at least four consecutive titles. Verstappen and Red Bull are looking to improve on their near-perfect season in 2023. Red Bull won 21 of 22 races, Verstappen won 19 of them, a record both in total and percentage. Surpassing his own mark is daunting, but not out of the question.
Schedule
For the first time since 1982, the Formula One season begins on a Saturday, as the Bahrain Grand Prix opens the season on Saturday March 2. One week after that, Formula One will run the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix on Saturday March 9, the first of eight instances this season with consecutive races. This will be the first Formula One season with multiple races not held on Sunday since 1983, when the British and South African Grand Prix were both run on Saturdays.
After a week off, the teams head for Australia for the third round on March 24. This begins a stretch of four rounds happening on alternating off weekends. The Japanese Grand Prix moves up to April 7, the earliest Japan has ever appeared on the Formula One schedule. The Chinese Grand Prix returns on April 21.
Miami returns for a third season on May 5 and that is just before the European portion of the calendar begins. A back-to-back kicks off the European calendar with Imola on May 19 and Monaco on May 26. There will be the Montreal detour on June 9, but after the trek to Canada there will be three consecutive weeks of races in Europe. It starts with Barcelona on June 23 before the Austrian Grand Prix on June 30 and it ends with the British Grand Prix on July 7.
A back-to-back takes Formula One into its summer break. The series will race in Hungary on July 21 and then Belgium on July 28.
Zandvoort restarts the season on August 25 with the Italian Grand Prix following on September 1, and that will conclude the European section of the season. Azerbaijan moves to September 15, one week prior to the Singapore Grand Prix.
There will be an autumn break for the teams after Singapore, as the next round will not be until October 20 at the United States Grand Prix. Austin will lead off three consecutive weeks of racing in the Americas. The Mexican Grand Prix will be October 27 before the Brazilian Grand Prix on November 3.
Las Vegas remains on a Saturday night, scheduled for November 23, and it leads off three consecutive races to close the season, the final two will take place in the Middle East. Qatar moves back to December 1 and Abu Dhabi closes the season on December 8.
Constructors:
Oracle Red Bull Racing
Drivers: Max Verstappen (#1 Red Bull RB20) & Sergio Pérez (#11 Red Bull RB20)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
Verstappen, and it shouldn't be close. Verstappen won 19 of 22 races last year. His worst finish was fifth. He had more than double the points of Pérez, and Pérez was second in the championship.
This team is Verstappen's team. Red Bull is built for the Dutchman. He is Red Bull's first, second, third, fourth and fifth priority. It doesn't matter what Pérez does in the first five races. It doesn't matter if the drivers have three victories and two victories respectively. It is Verstappen's team.
Pérez isn't going to accidentally end up in a championship position. There is no taking the fight to Verstappen. Some of that is the team, a lot of it is still on the drivers, and Verstappen is head and shoulders ahead of his teammate.
There are 24 races on the 2024 calendar. Is Verstappen going to win 86.36% of the races again? That is essentially 21 victories. No one had won more than 75% of the races in a season let alone more than 85% of the races before Verstappen did it last year. History says it will not happen because it hasn't happened before. The unprecedented has to happen at some point.
Verstappen is going to win a bulk of the races, and that is over the entire season. Whether that is 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 or 21, we will find out. Pérez might win his two again, but no one would be surprised if he was shutout despite his teammate's success.
Where should Red Bull finish in the championship?
First.
After falling a race shy of the perfect season, Red Bull will fight to get over that hill. In testing, it feels possible, but going 24-for-24? It is ridiculous! All it takes is one off weekend in Singapore for it to all go wrong.
Winning only 23 races or only 22 races or, heaven forbid, only 20 races, is still a historic season. The question for Red Bull is how historic will 2024 be?
Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team
Drivers: Lewis Hamilton (#44 Mercedes W15) & George Russell (#63 Mercedes W15)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
With Hamilton announcing he would move to Ferrari for the 2025 season, this is a sentimental year for the Brackley-based operation. For a little over decade, Hamilton and Mercedes were Formula One. Every grand prix started and ended wondering how Hamilton and Mercedes would do. Hamilton has gone winless the last two seasons, and after notable disagreements with the direction of the car, Hamilton is leaving despite having signed a two-year extension last year.
In the last two seasons, each driver has come out on top. Russell had the edge in 2022, 275 points to Hamilton's 240 points with a victory carrying additional bragging rights. In 2023, Hamilton was 59 points clear of Russell (285 to 175). Neither driver won, but Hamilton had six podium finishes to Russell's two.
These drivers have been rather even over their two seasons together. The W15 has received greater praise through testing, and the team sounds like it is at least pointing in the right direction and not uncertain of which way to go.
Hamilton still finished third in the world championship last year despite Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin's superior start to the season, and Hamilton was in a car he dreaded. If this year's car is not a demon damaging the psyche of the team's most successful driver, I think it is safe to say Hamilton should have the edge over Russell, though it could remain close for a third consecutive season.
Where should Mercedes finish in the championship?
In the fairy tale grounded in reality, Mercedes, after abandoning its sidepod-less concept and reverting to something a little more battle tested, would be more competitive than the previous two seasons. With Lewis Hamilton about to head out the door, the team is able to produce a race winner, get Hamilton a victory or two to end on and hang his hat before heading out the door. It isn't the world championship, it isn't close to Red Bull, but it is a few days to cherish as Mercedes finishes second.
That is as good as the fairy tale can get. We know how this season will play out, but even then Mercedes' best possible outcome might fall short. It is the manufacturer that won seven consecutive drivers' championships and eight consecutive constructors' championship. It should figure out its woes and at least plant itself in Red Bull's rearview mirror even if only the reflection is only a speck. But with Hamilton's pending departure, the sense of lost faith is inescapable, and this is set to end on a low note. Third, not bad, but still low.
Scuderia Ferrari
Drivers: Charles Leclerc (#16 Ferrari SF-24) & Carlos Sainz, Jr. (#55 Ferrari SF-24)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
This is a lame duck season for the Ferrari team as we know it. Leclerc will be sticking around, but Sainz, Jr. know he will be out the door, regardless of how he does this year. Absent of pulling out an unthinkable championship, the Spaniard will be making way for Hamilton while Leclerc will remain.
For all the potential we have seen from Leclerc, Sainz, Jr. has made it impossible not to ask if Ferrari is keeping the right driver. Leclerc has beat Sainz, Jr. in the championship each year, but he has also tossed away many quality race results. Not that Sainz, Jr. isn't innocent of that either, but he is responsible for Ferrari's most recent victory.
Sainz, Jr. will be trying to earn a job. He will certainly get one. Leclerc will be trying to prove Maranello it might the right decision. Only six points separated these drivers in 2023. It could remain that tight, but considering Leclerc will be around, the Monegasque driver should have a slight advantage again.
Where should Ferrari finish in the championship?
Either second or third. It really comes down to Mercedes.
Last season, Mercedes clung to second and survived to finish runner-up to Red Bull. Ferrari has a handful of places where it could kick itself for coming three points short, but the Scuderia ended on the offensive and looked a little mightier than Mercedes down the stretch, and that isn't even taking the Singapore victory into consideration.
Both drivers have something to play for. Leclerc is trying to convince everyone Ferrari made the right choice keeping him over Sainz, Jr. and Sainz, Jr. has a 24-race audition. If Mercedes is caught between two minds in car development and the Ferrari is humming, Ferrari could be second for the entire season and not have to worry about pressure from behind.
McLaren F1 Team
Drivers: Lando Norris (#4 McLaren MCL38) & Oscar Piastri (#81 McLaren MCL38)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
The comeback of the season saw McLaren rise from being one step from being in the cellar to finishing fourth and being on the doorstep of victory in 2023. McLaren is exponentially better positioned at the start of 2024 compared to the start of 2023. If it can end up fourth in the constructors' championship after how 2023 started, how high up the order can it finish was a marginally better start let alone the leap we are likely to see in 2024 compared to last year?
Both drivers covered themselves well in the final chapter of last season. Both drivers were on the podium. Piastri won a sprint race. Considering how things started and the difficulty adjusting to Formula One, the fact Piastri scored 97 points and finished ninth in the championship is remarkable.
Norris is more comfortable, and he should remain the top driver at McLaren. Norris had McLaren second in a great number of races last year. It is reasonable to feel McLaren is the closest to knocking off Red Bull, even if only for one race. But Piastri will make a statement as well. This team isn't Norris or bust, which is a great position for the Woking team to be.
Where should McLaren finish in the championship?
No team had more runner-up finishes in 2023 than McLaren, and that could point to it being set to be the surprise and jump up into the top two or three spots. But this is McLaren. For the previous two seasons, it has started flat and then found form. Last year was a seismic turnaround from the first race to the last. McLaren shouldn't start that poorly this year, but it will still have to bridge a 100-point gap between it and Mercedes and Ferrari.
It is doable, but teething problems will likely persist. Everyone has Norris as a sleeper for a race victory, some likely are throwing their weight behind Piastri. Top two or top three are practical, but Mercedes isn't going to slide back any further from where it was in 2023. McLaren should be a closer fourth than last season.
Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team
Drivers: Fernando Alonso (#14 Aston Martin AMR24) & Lance Stroll (#18 Aston Martin AMR24)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
Alonso and it should be a runaway. Alonso was six positions and 132 points better than Stroll in the championship last year. Alonso had 11 top five finishes in 2023. Stroll had three. Aston Martin ended up finishing 22 points behind McLaren for fourth in the constructors' championship. With a driver only a few percentages better than Stroll, Aston Martin could have claimed fourth, and this was a team that looked ready to fight for second in the opening third of the championship.
Aston Martin will go as far as Alonso can take it. Stroll is just providing a boost. If Stroll can be fractionally better compared to Alonso's total, it should help Aston Martin in the championship, but if Aston Martin starts 2024 like it ended 2023, Aston Martin will be losing ground no matter what.
In all likelihood, Aston Martin is not going to be as good as it was in 2023. Alonso isn't going to open with five podium finishes from the first six races. Aston Martin isn't going to have a driver finish in the top five of the championship let alone take fourth.
Where should Aston Martin finish in the championship?
We saw the tank go dry on Aston Martin at the halfway point of last season and the Silverstone-based team coast to the finish line, losing a handful of spots in the process. Aston Martin isn't going to start with that same podium form we saw in 2023. It isn't going to have that consistency at the front at any point in 2024. It will likely have a few competitive days, but it isn't going to be a regular occurrence.
That means a step back for Fernando Alonso, and if Fernando Alonso is taking a step back, Aston Martin is taking a step back. If Alonso is taking a step back, Stroll is taking a step back. Stroll is not going to be picking up any slack for what Alonso loses. Considering the gulf that existed between Aston Martin in fifth and Alpine in sixth last year, Aston Martin could lose ground and still end up fifth. However, it will be more frustrating than last season.
BWT Alpine F1 Team
Drivers: Pierre Gasly (#10 Alpine A524) & Esteban Ocon (#31 Alpine A524)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
Hardly anything separated these two drivers in 2023. Gasly would up 11th in the championship on 62 points while Ocon was 12th on 58 points. They each stood on the podium once, with their best finish being third. Coincidentally, both races had changing track conditions.
It is throwing darts at the wall between these two. In his first season with Alpine, Gasly narrowly beat Ocon. In two of the previous three seasons, when Gasly was at AlphaTauri, he finished ahead of Ocon. Gasly takes it.
Where should Alpine finish in the championship?
From the sounds of it, Alpine has its work cutout for itself after testing. There is a sense of frustration out of the French camp and it could find itself in the same position where McLaren was at in the early portion of the 2023. The only difference is I don't think Alpine can dig itself out of same size hole the way McLaren did last year.
If Alpine is coughing up points early, it will cost them late. There was 92 points between it and Williams for sixth in the constructors' championship. That daylight can disappear quickly if Alpine is struggling to break into the points. Last year, Alpine failed to score points in only six races, and it never had a drought longer than two races. That will likely change in 2024.
It will not be rock-bottom. It will be a slide down the order to seventh, but it could be worse.
Williams Racing
Drivers: Logan Sargeant (#2 Williams FW46) & Alexander Albon (#23 Williams FW46)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
Albon has achieved impressive results in two seasons with Williams. He is frequently the unsung hero of most grand prix. He scored 27 points and ended up 13th in the championship, ahead of both AlphaTauri drivers, both Alfa Romeo drivers, and both Haas drivers.
Williams deserves some credit. The car last year was better than any Williams over the previous five or six seasons. The combination was just right.
Albon is paired with Sargeant, who wasn't abysmal in his rookie year. Sargeant had some tough times and some rough races, but he wasn't completely lost on track. The American didn't pick up a point after Hamilton and Leclerc were disqualified from Austin, but he wasn't sniffing the points on a regular basis while Albon did score in seven races.
This should go comfortably in Albon's favor, but we could see both drivers make step forwards this year and Williams could be in the running to finish seventh again in the constructors' battle.
Where should Williams finish in the championship?
The goal should be just to get back to seventh. Williams was 92 points off Alpine last year. Williams only scored 28 points in 2023. More than tripling its points total is asking a bit much from this group. Albon will give it his all, but we should not believe Sargeant is going to make a substantial leap. Any improvement from Sargeant will be welcomed.
Williams is going to be about where Williams was the last two seasons. Albon can produce something out of nothing with this car. If Sargeant can have two or three races where he sneaks in the points, it will only help this outfit.
Seventh again feels ambitious, but it is possible. It really will come down to how lost Alpine is and how quickly Alpine can find itself. If Alpine is out in the woods, it bodes well for Williams.
Visa Cash App RB F1 Team
Drivers: Daniel Ricciardo (#3 VCARB 01) & Yuki Tsunoda (#22 VCARB 01)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
The team formerly known as AlphaTauri/Toro Rosso/Minardi is now some amalgamation of a credit card company, a mobile payment app, an abbreviation of another team on the grid, the abbreviation for the series it competes in and the word "team."
For the sake of sanity, this is Toro Rosso.
In the seven races they competed together as teammates in 2023, Tsunoda finished ahead of Ricciardo four times. Tsunoda outscored Ricciardo 14 points to eight with Tsunoda scoring in four races, plus a sprint race, and the only race Ricciardo scored in was with his seventh place finish at Mexico City.
Ricciardo was a top tier talent, a grand prix winner, and at one point, a potential world champion. Would it be surprising if Ricciardo tops this team and leads Toro Rosso up the standings? No. But it feels like the moment has passed. Ricciardo is turning 35 years old and driving for the same team he spent his first full season in Formula One 12 years ago. There is also Liam Lawson looming in the background.
A Red Bull seat will likely be open in 2024. Even if Tsunoda does best Ricciardo within the Toro Rosso battle, the Red Bull seat could be going elsewhere.
Where should Toro Rosso finish in the championship?
Looking at pacing, Toro Rosso should move into the middle of the grid. It feels like the car is at a spot where both drivers can compete to make it into Q3 in qualifying, and both drivers could possibly make it. If Toro Rosso can produce a car where both drivers are starting in the top ten and finishing in the points, even if it is seventh and ninth or eighth and tenth, those results go a long way. That is effectively how Alpine ended up sixth last year.
I think Toro Rosso can do that and inherit sixth from Alpine. The one-off (or I guess two-off) podium finishes might not happen, but consistently scoring points is possible Toro Rosso.
Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber
Drivers: Guanyu Zhou (#24 Sauber C44) & Valtteri Bottas (#77 Sauber C44)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
It is Sauber. There. With that covered, Bottas is a Formula One veteran and in two seasons he has outscored Zhou 59 to 12 and he has finished ahead of Zhou in 29 of 44 races. However, last year, Zhou did beat Bottas nine times.
We haven't really seen enough to suggest it is without question Zhou who will come out on top in the Sauber camp. Bottas does not make mistakes and does not tear up race cars. He can position himself to take advantage of the off days of others and finish two or three spots better than expected.
Where should Sauber finish in the championship?
Last year, the team doing business as Alfa Romeo had good testing pace and then never replicated that again all season. This year, Sauber had good testing pace, Zhou ran the fourth fastest lap, but no one is really believing Sauber will make a significant jump from ninth to regularly in the middle of the field. After all, Bottas was 18th in testing. There is a lot of ground between fourth and 18th.
The tight three-team cluster for seventh should remain this season, but with Alpine taking the place of Toro Rosso. Like with Williams, if Alpine is bad, that could be good for Sauber, but that is Sauber's best hope for eighth.
MoneyGram Haas F1 Team
Drivers: Kevin Magnussen (#20 Haas VF-24) & Nico Hülkenberg (#27 Haas VF-24)
Who should win the intra-team battle?
Hülkenberg was ahead of Magnussen in 13 of 22 races last year. However, Hülkenberg had only one points finish, and it was seventh in Australia after four cars had an accident on the late restart and Carlos Sainz, Jr. had a five-second penalty for causing a collision dropped him out of the points.
It doesn't really matter at Haas because the team is going to be so woefully behind a tortoise could be behind the wheel of the car and no one would know the difference.
Neither of these drivers are all that inspiring of a choice. Neither seem to have any chance of improving their value in Formula One nor torpedoing their value either this season.
Let's just say Hülkenberg for the sake of making a pick.
Where should Haas finish in the championship?
Haas was focused on tire degradation at the Bahrain test. That says enough. This is a team that has broken 20 points only once in the last four seasons. This feels like 2020 and 2021 all over again except with less funding concerns. The team made the late change at team principal, axing Guenther Steiner on January 10, a move that either was made about a month too late or three years too late depending on how you look at it. Ayao Komatsu takes over the role, who has been with Haas since its first season in 2016 as the trackside engineering director.
Speed is the concern. Points are going to be harder to come by. Hülkenberg and Magnussen are mostly competent drivers. They are both on borrowed time in Formula One and would not be here if Haas was run by someone with competency or at least ambition.
The only way Haas finishes ninth is if Alpine is a complete train wreck and is in constant turmoil. Haas should be tenth, and in all likelihood it will score fewer than the 12 points it earned in 2023.
The opening practice for the Formula One season will take place at 6:30 a.m. ET on Thursday February 29. The second one-hour session will be at 10:00 a.m. On Friday March 1, practice will run at 7:30 a.m. with qualifying scheduled for 11:00 a.m. The 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix will start at 10:00 a.m. on Saturday March 2.
