2024 NASCAR Cup Series Preview

NASCAR's age of change continues. While there is a new champion, a past champion has left the series. Ford and Toyota have updated their bodywork. Most of the events look the same, but there have been a few date changes, one track is gone, and there is a new circuit on the 36-race Cup schedule. Heck, the season already started with something unprecedented. The Clash at the Coliseum was moved up an entire day due to weather. If that was the prologue to the 2024 season, who knows what else we could see over the next ten months?

Unchanged is the Daytona 500 as the season opener but Atlanta returns to the second race of the season. The Western swing is only a two-week affair this year. Las Vegas begins the month of March with its race on the third with Phoenix following on the tenth.

The dirt is gone from Bristol Motor Speedway, and the half-mile oval will host two races on its concrete surface, the first of which will be March 17. Austin remains the first road course on the schedule the week after Bristol, and Richmond moves to the Easter night date on March 31, the first of six night races in the regular season. 

Martinsville makes it two consecutive Virginia races before a return to Texas Motor Speedway on April 14. Talladega and Dover close to the month of April while Kansas and Darlington bring the season to the all-star break. 

North Wilkesboro remains the host of the All-Star Race on May 19, a week prior to the Coca-Cola 600 from Charlotte Motor Speedway. Gateway hosts the first race of June on the second, a week before Sonoma. Spring ends with the Cup Series first visit to Iowa Speedway on June 16, a night race. The 7/8-mile oval in Newton, Iowa has hosted 20 NASCAR Grand National Series races and 13 Truck races over its history. 

Loudon moves to the first weekend of summer on June 23, a week ahead of Nashville. The Chicago street race remains the first Sunday in July, and Pocono moves up to July 14. The Brickyard 400 returns after a three-year stint running on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. The Brickyard 400 on July 21 will mark the field race before a two-week Olympic break.

NASCAR returns to competition on August 11 with a night race at Richmond. Michigan will take place on August 18 with Daytona the week after that, and the Southern 500 on September 1 will mark the final race of the regular season. 

The first round of the playoffs see a massive shakeup. Atlanta will leadoff on September 8 with Watkins Glen moving to September 15. Bristol closes out the first round on September 21. Kansas slips into the second round with Talladega marking the midway point in the postseason on October 6. The Charlotte roval rounds out round two on October 13. 

The semifinal round remains unchanged. Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville remains the three races, while Phoenix will host the finale for the fifth consecutive season on November 10.

Twenty-seven of the 36 Chartered teams see unchanged driver lineups from the 2023 season. There will be four rookies on this year's grid. Fifteen drivers won a race last season, but a few notable names came up winless and will look to fix that in 2024. Thirteen drivers made the playoffs last season with a victory. Only one of those winners was ranked outside the top 16 in points at the end of the regular season.

Chartered Teams

Ross Chastain - #1 Busch Beer/Moose Fraternity/Worldwide Express/Kubota/Jockey Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2023 Championship Finish: 9th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Pretty good. Chastain has won two races in each of the last two seasons, and he has done a great job with starts to his seasons. The problem is in each of the last two seasons, Chastain has had a midseason slump. Last year's slump was worse than 2022. In the final 14 races before the playoffs, he won at Nashville, but he had had only three top ten finishes and seven finishes outside the top twenty during that span. If he has the same slump and doesn't win, he could find himself in a nervy predicament as the regular season winds down. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Chastain has won at Austin, Talladega, Nashville and Phoenix in his Cup career. He has had strong runs at Darlington and Dover as well.

Possible Milestone: Chastain is 13 starts away from become the 148th driver to reach the 200-start milestone. 

Austin Cindric - #2 Discount Tires/Freightliner Ford

Team: Team Penske
2023 Championship Finish: 24th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2022)

2024 Playoff Prospects: The lone Penske driver to miss the playoffs in 2023, Cindric had a woeful sophomore season, and despite being known for his road course prowess, he did not have a top five finish on a road course last season, and he had only two the season before that. He had five top ten finishes all of last season. That will require a notable uptick if he hopes to contend for the playoffs this year. While Penske has produced the last two champions, the team has not been dominating races. This will be an uphill battle for Cindric, until he rediscovers his form on the twisty circuits.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Though the results are lacking, it is still the road courses. Although, he does have a Daytona 500 victory.

Austin Dillon - #3 Bass Pro Shops/BetMGM Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 29th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2018)

2024 Playoff Prospects: A 60-point penalty set Dillon back from making the playoffs in 2023, but his results weren't doing him any favors either. Give those 60 points back and Dillon still would have only been 25th in the championship last year. Dillon had ten retirements last year and finished outside the top 30 in 12 races. He was expected to be a fringe player for making the playoff on points. Richard Childress Racing showed good speed last year with Kyle Busch. Dillon will not be as far off this year, but the playoffs will require some work.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Dillon's only top five finish last year was the Bristol dirt race, so that isn't a great sign. He had three top ten finishes on 1.5-mile ovals, a top ten finish at New Hampshire and Richmond, and he was ninth at Fontana. 

Possible Milestone: Dillon must complete 98 laps to reach the 100,000 laps milestone. Sixty-nine drivers have completed 100,000 laps in a Cup career.

Josh Berry - #4 SunnyD/Harrison's Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (11th in NASCAR's Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2024 Playoff Prospects: With Kevin Harvick retiring, Berry steps into the #4 Ford after a moderately successful stint in NASCAR's second division. At 33 years old, Berry is older than your contemporary rookie, but he had good runs with JR Motorsports. Stewart-Haas Racing is not the same Stewart-Haas Racing as five years ago. Harvick was the only SHR car to make the playoffs last year and no other SHR car cracked the top twenty in 2023. Berry had a few good races last season running in place of an injured Chase Elliott, but Berry will been experiencing a learning curve this season. It will be a struggle to crack the top twenty in points.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Berry was second at Richmond last year in the spring race driving in place of Elliott. Berry was also tenth at Dover. If he is going to win anywhere, it is either going to be Martinsville, Richmond, Las Vegas or Dover.

Kyle Larson - #5 HendrickCars.com/Valvoline Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 2nd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2016, 2019)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Larson will make it but it is a case of how far he can go. On talent alone, he should be in the final four. It is not always that simple. Larson is going to win three to seven races this season. If he times them right, it could end in a second championship.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Anywhere. It is Kyle Larson.

Possible Milestone: Larson is two victories away from becoming the 36th driver with at least 25 Cup victories. He is seven victories away from becoming the 30th driver with at least 30 Cup victories.

Brad Keselowski - #6 Castrol/BuildSubmarines.com/Fastenal Body Guard/Consumer Cellular/Solomon Plumbing/King's Hawaiian/Esperion Therapeutics Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 8th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2014)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Year two driving for his own team saw a big upswing for Keselowski. The lone thing that was missing was a victory. It feels like a victory is coming for Keselowski. He is approaching three years since his most recent victory. He is due. One win and he is in the playoffs. Even if he doesn't win, he should be in a spot to make it on points. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: RFK Racing swept the Daytona 500 qualifying races last year and won the summer Daytona race last year. It is setup for a Daytona 500 victory. Either that or Talladega.

Possible Milestone: Keselowski is five victories away from becoming the 21st driver with at least 40 Cup victories. 

Corey LaJoie - #7 Celsius/Gainbridge/Chili's Grill & Bar Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 25th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 8th (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: In what was a career year for LaJoie in 2023, he had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes. He also led 66 laps and had his best average finish in a season at 20.8. However, there is much more work to do to make the playoffs on points. He is in a win-or-bust situation. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: All eight of his Cup top ten finishes have come at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. 

Kyle Busch - #8 3CHI/Cheddars/Lcuas Oil/Morgan & Morgan/BetMGM/Rebel Bourbon/Global Industrial/Zone Premium Nicotine Pouches Chevrolet

Team: Richard Childress Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 14th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2019)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Busch should be safe, but he had a tale of two seasons in 2023. In the first 18 races, he won three times with six top five finishes, 11 top ten finishes and had an average finish of 11.555. In the final 18 races, Busch had zero victories, four top five finishes, six top ten finishes and an average finish of 18.444. One half is good enough for the playoffs. The other half likely is not. What Busch and RCR will we see? Busch should make it, but this is setting up for a potential nail-bitter coming August.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Busch is able to win anywhere. He was leading at the 500-mile mark at last year's Daytona 500, but it was extended due to cautions. He won at Talladega for the first time in 15 years. His other victories were at Fontana and Gateway. He had four top five finishes on road courses last year, and he hasn't won on a road course since Sonoma in 2015. Let's pencil in a road course victory for Busch.

Possible Milestone: Busch is four top five finishes away from becoming the tenth driver to have at least 250 top five finishes in a Cup career. Busch is also 22 starts away from becoming the 20th driver to reach 700 career Cup starts.

Chase Elliott - #9 NAPA Auto Parts/Hooters/Llumar/Kelley Blue Book/UniFirst Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 17th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: If Elliott doesn't break any bones doing extracurricular activities, he will make it. At the end of last regular season, he was averaging 27.684 points per start. That would have been good enough to make it on points in 2023. It was a winless season, and a year where he rarely factored for a victory. That isn't going to be the same. Elliott should win at least once in the regular season.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Road courses obviously, but Elliott's best race last year was the penultimate race at Martinsville. 

Possible Milestone: Elliott is seven top five finishes away from becoming the 45th driver to have at least 100 top five finishes in a Cup career.

Noah Gragson - #10 Black Rifle Coffee/Ranger Boats/Rush Truck Centers Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 33rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 24th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Even before NASCAR suspended Gragson for improper conduct, 2023 was a terrible season. He had no top ten finishes and one top fifteen finish in 21 starts. He had eight finishes outside the top 30 and 15 finishes outside the top 25. Gragson got into a number of accident, infamously causing a pair of cautions at Chicago. Stewart-Haas Racing is a step up from Legacy Motor Club on paper, but many of those results last year weren't because of the team. With SHR in a rut, this is ripe for Gragson to continue to drive beyond the limit, which could spell more trouble. Playoff hopes are bleak, but all it takes to make it is one timely rainstorm.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Gragson's best finish last season was 12th at Atlanta.

Denny Hamlin - #11 FedEx/Mavis Tire & Brakes/Sport Clips/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 5th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2016, 2019, 2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Hamlin is going to make it. It is a matter of claiming that elusive championship. Everything sounds like he is more focused than ever to push for the title this year, and he is talking about maximizing the regular season to set himself up nicely in the playoff. However, a championship in this format all comes down to one race. If Hamlin makes it to Phoenix, can he have a flawless 500-kilometers?

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Hamlin has his tracks: Pocono, Martinsville, Richmond, Darlington, heck even Daytona. 

Possible Milestone: Hamlin is four victories away from surpassing Lee Petty for 12th all-time. Hamlin is five victories away from surpassing Rusty Wallace for 11th all-time.

Ryan Blaney - #12 Menards/Advance Auto Parts/BodyArmor/Wurth/Discount Tire/Dent Wizard/Wabash Ford

Team: Team Penske
2023 Championship Finish: 1st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2017, 2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: The reigning champion should be back in the playoffs to defend his title, though 2023 was not a banner season for Blaney despite taking home the championship. He didn't have a top five finish from Memorial Day to October 1. Most drivers that go the entire summer without a top five finish do not win the championship. His season shouldn't be that poor, but it will take some convincing we could see successful title defense.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Blaney could not finish in the top five for 17 races and then he ended the season with finishes of first, 12th, sixths second, first and second. He was second and first at Talladega. He was second in both Phoenix races. 

Chase Briscoe - #14 Mahindra Ag North America/High Point/Rush Truck Centers Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 30th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2022)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Like Austin Dillon, Briscoe was setback with a points penalty. For Briscoe, it was a 120-point penalty. Give it back to him, and he is still only 23rd, smack-dab between teammates Aric Almirola and Ryan Preece. If any SHR driver is going to make the playoffs, Briscoe is the guy, but it will require his best results by far. For a team that was bunched just outside the top twenty, this is lining up for Briscoe to be short. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Briscoe was in the top five of both Martinsville races last season.

Riley Herbst - #15 N29 Capital Partners Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (13th in the NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 10th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Herbst is only doing the Daytona 500 in the #15 Ford as Kaz Grala will run 25 races in the this car and Cody Ware will run the remaining ten. Herbst will be full-time in NASCAR's second series with Stewart-Haas Racing.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The division below this one.

A.J. Allmendinger - #16 Celsius/Alloy Employer Services Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 21st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2009, 2017)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Allmendinger will not be full-time in the #16 Chevrolet as he returns to the second division to run full-time for the championship. This entry will have Shane van Gisbergen contest seven races (Austin, both Talladega races, the Coca-Cola 600, Chicago, Watkins Glen and Las Vegas in October), while Josh Williams will also run a few races. Other drivers are still to be announced. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: With Allmendinger and van Gisbergen splitting this car, the #16 Chevrolet has a good shot at winning on the road courses. 

Chris Buescher - #17 Fastenal/Fifth Third Bank/Castrol Edge/BuildSubmarines.com/Esperion Therapeutics Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 7th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: With a summer splash of three victories heading into the playoffs, Buescher is a bit of the popular sleeper entering the 2024 season. Buescher should make it back. A regular season victory feels highly likely. He did nearly double his career top five finish total in one season, and his 17 top ten finishes in 2023 were seven more than his previous high. Buescher should be back in the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Buescher was fourth, third and first in the Daytona/Talladega regular season races. 

Possible Milestone: Buescher is seven starts away from become the 101st driver to reach the 300-start milestone. 

Martin Truex, Jr. - #19 Bass Pro Shops/Auto Owners Insurance/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 11th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2016)

2024 Playoff Prospects: If it was a tale of two seasons for Kyle Busch, Truex, Jr. fell off the face of the planet when the playoffs approached last year. Truex, Jr. went from a 10.88 average finish in the first 25 races to a 18.909 average finish in the final 11 races. He had seven finishes of 15th or worse in the first 25 races. He had eight finishes of 15th or worse in the final 11 races. Eleven races is not an insignificant sample size, especially after being the top driver in the regular season. You would think Truex, Jr. will correct the ship, but even if he makes it to the playoffs, what damage could he do?

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington or Loudon. He has been outstandingly strong at those places in recent years.

Possible Milestone: Truex, Jr. is six victories away from becoming the 21st driver with at least 40 Cup victories. 

Christopher Bell - #20 DeWalt/Rheem/Mobil 1/Interstate Batteries Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 4th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: For two consecutive seasons, Bell has made an unthinkable run to the championship race. Last year should have been less of a surprise considering he spent majority of the season in the top four of the championship. Bell will make it back to the playoffs. The tracks are still lined up for him to make a run to the championship race. If the brakes hold, he could win the title.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bell has yet to win on the same track twice in his Cup career, but he excels on worn out pavement. Give him Darlington, Homestead, heck now that both Bristol races will be on concrete, that only increases Bell's chances of winning there.

Harrison Burton - #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane/Draiver Ford

Team: Wood Brothers Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 31st
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 26th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: In 73 Cup races, Burton has more lapped finishes than lead lap finishes in his career, 37 to 36. He didn't improve from year one to year two. His average starting position dropped by 3.2 positions from 22.1 to 25.3 and his average finish dropped almost two spots from 22.8 to 24.7. To make the playoffs, he will need the planets aligning at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta, or Burton needs a thunderstorm to come at the right time during a pit cycle.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: See above.

Joey Logano - #22 Shell/Pennzoil/Hunt Brother's Pizza Ford

Team: Team Penske
2023 Championship Finish: 12th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2015)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Logano will make it. There are some concerns as Penske didn't look great last year, but Logano will win somewhere in the regular season, even if it is his only victory in the regular season and secure a playoff spot where he will either work his magic and somehow make the semifinal round and slip into the Phoenix finale, or he will repeat 2023 and not really come close to achieving a third title.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The answer is anywhere, but it will either be early in the season or late in the season. Logano has not won one of the races between the 16th race in the season and the 30th race of the season since he won the 30th race of the 2015 season at Charlotte. 

Bubba Wallace - #23 Door Dash/McDonald's/Columbia/U.S. Air Force/MoneyLion/Dr. Pepper/Mobil 1 Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 10th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 2nd (2018, 2022)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Wallace was the final driver to make it on points last year, and he drove even better in the playoffs than the regular season. Wallace can be spotty. He probably should have won at least once last year. His 1.5-mile form is favorable. A regular season victory would not stun anyone, but a slow start could put him on shaky ground. If Chase Elliott doesn't miss seven races, Elliott is making it on points easily over Wallace. A victory would go a long way toward Wallace's hopes. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Texas, which is now a regular season race. Although Kansas deserves a mention, and Wallace does run well at Daytona and Talladega. He did lead 80 laps in the summer race at Richmond last year.

William Byron - #24 Axalta/Valvoline/Liberty University/RaptorTough.com/HP Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 3rd
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 21st (2019)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Byron won the most races last year, but maybe we should take that with a grain of salt. Byron won three races last year where he led fewer than 20 laps. It was only the fourth time in Cup Series history a driver has won at least three races in a season with fewer than 20 laps led. The other were Rex White in 1961, Joe Weatherly in 1962 and Kevin Harvick in 2011. Two of those races Byron won were because the leaders took each other out (Darlington spring and Texas), and the other was a rain-shortened race where everyone was racing the weather (Atlanta). 

Even if you flip Darlington and Texas, Byron still wins four times. He still has 15 top five finishes, tied for most in the series, and 21 top ten finishes, most in the series. Byron will make the playoffs, but with a healthy Elliott, a title push becomes increasingly difficult.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Byron had strong runs at Las Vegas, Dover and Richmond last year. He also had three finishes in the top-two on road courses.

Daniel Hemric - #31 LeafFilter Gutter Protection/Cirkul Chevrolet

Team: Kaulig Racing
2023 Championship Finish: N/A (8th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Slim-to-none. Kaulig Racing is a good team, but Hemric has one victory in NASCAR national series competition, and that is increasingly looking more and more fluky (even worse it won him a championship). After having 15 top five finishes in his 2021 Grand National Series season, Hemric had a combined nine top five finishes over the last two seasons. After leading 663 laps in 2021, he led a combined 124 laps in the last two season. This doesn't scream a driver than can make waves in the Cup Series.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In 47 Cup starts, Hemric's three top ten finishes have come at Talladega, Pocono and Fontana. Of his nine top five finishes in the last two seasons, three of those were at Atlanta. 

Michael McDowell - #34 Love's Travel Stops/Horizon Hobby/Margaritaville at Sea/Benebone/B'laster Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 15th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: McDowell found a higher level in the regular season and took an emphatic victory at Indianapolis. However, McDowell's results nose-dived after that, and his average finish in 2023 was actually 2.3 spots worse than 2022 (19.0 to 16.7) and he had four fewer top ten finishes than in 2022 (eight down from 12). Even without the victory, McDowell would have been in the playoffs on points. That will be difficult to duplicate. Another road course victory sounds more likely. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: I guess we have to say road courses after Indianapolis.

Possible Milestone: McDowell must complete 149 laps to reach the 100,000 laps milestone. Sixty-nine drivers have completed 100,000 laps in a Cup career.

Todd Gilliland - #38 Ruedebusch Development and Construction/gener8tor/Frontline Enterprises/Georgia Peanut Commission Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 28th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: It will be an uphill battle for Gilliland. He had a few good performances early in 2023, but the results petered out as the season went along. Playoffs will likely require a Daytona/Talladega/Atlanta victory.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: See above.

Ryan Preece - #41 Haas Automation/United Rentals Ford

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 23rd 
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 6th (2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Preece will need to be a more prolific driver if he wants to make the playoffs. He had only two top ten finishes in 2023. He has never had more than four top ten finishes in a season. He has never had more than one top five finish in a season, and he has alternated years in which he gets his one top five finish. Based on that pattern, Preece will not get a top five finish in 2024. You cannot make the playoffs without a top five finish.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Preece was one botched pit stop at Martinsville in the spring from possibly winning that race and stealing a playoff spot early. Martinsville, Richmond, Bristol and Loudon and favorable for Preece.

John Hunter Nemechek - #42 Dollar Tree/Family Dollar/Mobil 1 Toyota

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (4th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 11th (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: With Legacy Motor Club moving to Toyota, it has moved from being the fifth team (at best) in the pecking order at Chevrolet to third at Toyota. Nemechek redefined his career moving down from the Cup Series after being full-time with Front Row Motorsports in 2020, and Toyota has him back. There will still be trying races. This is still a smaller team in comparison. Nemechek likely will not be pushing for the top fifteen in points. His playoff hopes will depend on a victory.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: The only tracks Nemechek won at multiple times in his Grand National Series career were Kansas and Texas. 

Erik Jones - #43 AdventHealth/Dollar Tree/FamilyDollar/Allegiant Toyota

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2023 Championship Finish: 27th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 3rd (2019)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Toyota power could rejuvenate Jones' career. He had some impressive performances last year in bad equipment. Seven top ten finishes is respectable. He did win in 2022 at Darlington with three top five finishes and 13 top ten finishes. If he repeats 2022, Jones could be sniffing for a playoff spot. He is always a threat at Darlington. He could be a sleeper.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Darlington. Need I say more?

Tyler Reddick - #45 Monster Energy/McDonald's/SiriusXM/MoneyLion/Mobil 1 /Jordan Brand Toyota

Team: 23XI Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 6th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 27th (2019, 2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Reddick should be in the playoffs, but his 2023 season was sink or swim. He won twice and had ten top five finishes, but he had 11 finishes outside the top twenty, including a five-consecutive race run from Gateway through Atlanta in the summer. And yet, he was still contending for a final four spot. Year two with 23XI should see things clean up and he should be a greater force in the regular season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: A worn out racetrack. Darlington, Homestead, or a road course. Over half his Cup victories have been on road courses.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. - #47 Kroger Chevrolet

Team: JTG Daugherty Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 16th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Stenhouse, Jr. won the Daytona 500 and punched the first playoff ticket. However, 2023 was arguably his best regular season, and he would have been in contention on points even without the victory. Results did taper off in the second half of the season. Stenhouse, Jr. had 11 top fifteen finishes in the first half of the season. He had five top fifteen finishes in the second half of the season. A return to the playoffs will likely require another unlikely victory.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: He has only ever won at Daytona and Talladega. 

Alex Bowman - #48 Ally Chevrolet

Team: Hendrick Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: 20th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 5th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Bowman was the second of two Hendrick drivers to be injured during the 2023 season doing something other than Cup racing and miss time, and ultimately miss the playoffs. Bowman broke his back in a sprint car accident, and it derailed a good start to the season. He opened with four consecutive top ten finishes and six top ten finish in the first seven races. He had nine top fifteen finishes in the first ten races. He was tenth in the championship at the time of his injury and missed three races. In the final 23 races, Bowman had only four top ten finishes and nine top fifteen finishes. At the time of his injury, he was averaging 27 points per start.

Bowman returning to form should put him a playoff position. However, Bowman is the shakiest of the four Hendrick drivers. In four of his seven career victories, Bowman has led 16 laps or fewer. He could be flirting with the bubble for most of this season. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Bowman has a good record at Dover, Las Vegas and his road course performances are sneaky good.

Possible Milestone: If Bowman wins pole position for the Daytona 500, he would become the fourth driver with four Daytona 500 pole positions joining Buddy Baker, Cale Yarborough and Bill Elliott.

Justin Haley - #51 Walmart Health & Wellness Ford

Team: Rick Ware Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 26th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Haley was good in his first full-time stint in the Cup series with Kaulig Racing, but far from great. Rick Ware Racing has never been close to putting a driver in the playoffs on points. Haley's best bet is stealing a victory at a plate track with a lot of accidents.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta.

Ty Gibbs - #54 Interstate Batteries/Monster Energy/SiriusXM Toyota

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing
2023 Championship Finish: 18th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 25th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Gibbs should make the playoffs this year. His form improved greatly over the second half of the season. He was pushing for victory at Bristol in the playoff race. Even if he doesn't win, Gibbs should be in a spot to make it on points. Everyone has money on him winning sooner rather than later.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Two of Gibbs' four top five finishes last year were on road courses. Four of his top ten finishes last year were on road courses. 

Zane Smith - #71 WeatherTech/Focused Health Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (7th in the NASCAR Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 13th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Spire has expanded to three cars, this one run in partnership with Kaulig Racing. It is difficult to tell whether this car will race more like a Spire car or a Kaulig car. Either way, both are grasping for the top twenty in points. Smith didn't really shine last year in his cameo appearances with Front Row Motorsports. In eight races, he had four finishes outside the top 30 and six finishes outside the top twenty. The playoffs should not be the expectation. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Smith has won the last two Truck races at Daytona and the last two Truck races at Austin

Carson Hocevar - #77 Zeigler Auto Group/Delaware Life Chevrolet

Team: Spire Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (3rd in the NASCAR Truck Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: This will be his Daytona 500 debut.

2024 Playoff Prospects: Like Smith, Hocevar is making the leap from Trucks to Cup. Unlike Smith, Hocevar turned some heads in his handful of Cup races last year. Hocevar does have a reputation of making boneheaded mistakes. That will not take you far in the Cup Series. It almost certainly will not get you into the playoffs.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In all likelihood, his best hopes are at Daytona, Talladega or Atlanta. 

Daniel Suárez - #99 Freeway Insurance/Worldwide Express/Quaker State//Kubota/Choice Privileges Chevrolet

Team: Trackhouse
2023 Championship Finish: 19th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 7th (2023)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Suárez should be in the playoff discussion, but he is coming off a disappointing season where he didn't really factor for a playoff spot, especially as the regular season wound down. In seven Cup seasons, Suárez has made the playoffs only once despite driving for Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Trackhouse for six of those years. Based on track record alone, you have to believe he will fall short again. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Four of his last seven top five finishes have been on road courses.

Non-Chartered Teams

Kaz Grala - #36 Ruedebusch Development and Construction Ford

Team: Front Row Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: N/A (17th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 26th (2022)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Grala is in a one-off entry for Front Row Motorsports before running most of the season in Rick Ware Racing's #15 Ford. Grala will not be playoff eligible, but he will be contesting rookie of the year honors... against three drivers who will be full-time..

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Most likely at Rick Ware Racing considering he will race 25 times for that team versus once for Front Row.

David Ragan - #60 BuildSubmarines.com Ford

Team: Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing
2023 Championship Finish: N/A
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 4th (2020)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Ragan looks to make his first Cup start since the August 2022 Daytona race. This will come in a third entry for RFK Racing. It could be his first start for the team since 2011 after spending five seasons with the organization. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: It is Daytona 500 or bust for Ragan.

Anthony Alfredo - #62 Death Wish Coffee Chevrolet

Team: Beard Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (20th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 32nd (2021)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Alfredo is attempting Daytona and the spring Talladega race with Beard Motorsports.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: In NASCAR's second division where he will drive the #5 Our Motorsports Chevrolet full-time. 

B.J. McLeod - #78 Live Fast Motorsports Chevrolet

Team: Live Fast Motorsports
2023 Championship Finish: Ineligible (68th in NASCAR Grand National Series)
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 19th (2019)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Live Fast Motorsports sold its Charter to Spire Motorsports, which has become Zane Smith's #71 Chevrolet entry. McLeod and Live Fast Motorsports will continue as a part-time Cup operation. Other 2024 races have yet to be determined. 

Most Likely Place for a Victory: McLeod will continue to run in NASCAR's second division.

Jimmie Johnson - #84 AdventHealth/DollarTree/Family Dollar/ Carvana Toyota

Team: Legacy Motor Club
2023 Championship Finish: 39th
Best Daytona 500 Finish: 1st (2006, 2013)

2024 Playoff Prospects: Johnson will not make the playoffs, but he has announced a nine-race calendar that will see him run Daytona, Texas, both Kansas races, the spring Darlington race, the Coca-Cola 600, the Brickyard 400, Las Vegas and the Phoenix finale.

Most Likely Place for a Victory: Of the nine races on his schedule, let's go with the Brickyard 400. He has already won in five times. I am surprised Dover was not included on his schedule. 

Possible Milestone: Johnson is 11 starts away from 700-start milestone. 

Playoff Driver Predictions

1. Denny Hamlin

2. Kyle Larson

3. Tyler Reddick

4. Christopher Bell

5. Chase Elliott 

6. Chris Buescher

7. Joey Logano

8. William Byron

9. Ryan Blaney

10. Martin Truex, Jr.

11. Kyle Busch

12. Ty Gibbs

13. Bubba Wallace

14. Brad Keselowski

15. Ross Chastain

16. Alex Bowman

Daytona 500 qualifying takes place tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET. The front row for the Daytona 500 will be decided while the fastest two non-chartered entries will lock-in their spots for Sunday's race. The first Daytona 500 qualifying race will be run at 7:00 p.m. ET on Thursday February 15 with the second race following at 8:45 p.m. ET. There will be one 50-minute practice for the Cup teams at 5:35 p.m. ET on Friday February 16 before a final 50-minute practice at 10:30 a.m. on Saturday February 17.

The 66th running of the Daytona 500 is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday February 18.