And then there were 30 days until the 2024 IndyCar season opener. Only a month remains until the teams unload in St. Petersburg and the first race of 17 commences. Normally when IndyCar is in St. Petersburg, Team Penske comes out on top. Eleven times Penske has won on the Albert Whitted Airport runway, more than any other team, just over half of all editions of the race. It is another season, and for Team Penske expectations remain unchanged.
At First Glance... It's Team Penske
We know the drill. It is Team Penske.
It is either going to either win four races, including the Indianapolis 500, and it will be a disappointing season, or it will win 12 races, not win the Indianapolis 500, finish one-two-five in the championship, and it will be a disappointing season. There is a narrow window for euphoric celebration on the Captain's ship.
By Penske standards, 2023 was only a good season for the team. It won the Indianapolis 500. For Team Penske, that is the number one goal of the season. It accomplished that, but the IndyCar season is more than one race. When Chip Ganassi Racing wins more races and wins the championship, the season cannot be considered a success. However, winning five races is still a pipe dream for 75% of the other teams in the series.
For all that Penske should celebrate, there were plenty of reasons to be concerned. Josef Newgarden won the Indianapolis 500, he won four oval races... but he only had one podium finish on the road/street courses. He had six finishes outside the top ten, three outside the top twenty, his most finishes outside the top ten since 2015 and his most finishes outside the top twenty since 2016.
Scott McLaughlin won at Barber Motorsports Park, he was third in the championship with 11 consecutive top ten finishes to close the season... but he only led 117 laps, down from 433 laps led the year before and he only led two laps on ovals!
Will Power did not win a race for the first time since his rookie season in Champ Car in 2006. Power was on the podium four times, a good season; he won two pole positions, a fair total; but he only had one race where it felt like he should win, and Newgarden still dominated that first race from Iowa.
Penske can afford a season like this. It cannot afford a second season like this, however.
There wasn't a reason to change the lineup, but Team Penske will not take too long refresh the lineup if results are not up to snuff. It also does not take much of a reason for Penske to move on from a driver, even if he is running as one of the best in IndyCar.
Power has achieved a lot for Team Penske, but the leash is short if he has another winless season. It doesn't necessarily spell the end of his time with the team, but 2025 will be a pivotal year before the final act of his career.
Newgarden succeeded and failed in 2023. He conquered the last quest in an IndyCar driver's career, but his results were all over the board and he was never pressuring for the championship despite winning four races. He has not expressed any joy in the season he had, and with him stepping away from some of the off-track extracurriculars (Bus Bros), it signals a re-focus on his craft.
Considering McLaughlin has only completed three IndyCar seasons, going from 14th to fourth to third is as good as you could expect from a driver moving from tin-top touring cars. We know he can run at the top level in IndyCar. It is no longer a pleasant surprise when he finishes in the top five and is competitive. That is the expectation now, and it is actually a little underwhelming just to finish in the top five. Winning is what matters.
It is Team Penske. It is going to win races and be a force in IndyCar. It is a matter of its level of dominance. Can it dethrone Chip Ganassi Racing with all three drivers winning on a regular basis? Will one Penske driver carry the team while areas for improvement remain? Is there anyway Penske declines and we are left scratching our heads and wondering what it does next?
All of these drivers can secure their rides for the next five years this season, and yet, with stagnation, all three could find themselves on the chopping block.
2023 Team Penske Review
Wins: 5 (Texas, Barber, Indianapolis 500, Iowa 1, Iowa 2)
Poles: 4 (Iowa 1, Iowa 2, Nashville, Gateway)
Championship Finishes: 3rd (Scott McLaughlin), 5th (Josef Newgarden), 7th (Will Power)
Josef Newgarden - #2 Hitachi/PPG Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
6: Newgarden's last six victories have been on ovals.
2: Podium finishes in the last two seasons that were not victories.
1: Top five finish on a permanent road course in 2023 (fifth at Portland).
What does a championship season look like for him?
Newgarden has already done it twice, and he has come close a few more times. Each season he has won a championship, Newgarden has won four races. In each season he won multiple times on road/street courses and ovals. In two of the three seasons he has finished runner-up in the championship, he has done the same.
In his two championship seasons, he has won one of the first three races and had multiple podium finishes in the first four events. In two of the three seasons he was runner-up, he did not win any of the first five races, but in one of those seasons he did win two of the first three events.
The key things is Newgarden limits his bad days. In each of his championship seasons, he never finished outside the top twenty. In two of the three seasons he has finished runner-up, he has at least two finishes outside the top twenty.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Anything is realistic for Newgarden. He could bounce back from his underwhelming road/street course numbers and win four times with six podium finishes on the twisty circuits. He could also go winless again and only win two oval races.
The addition of a Milwaukee doubleheader should be favorable for him, as it also adds an oval races to the schedule. He was fifth in each of his last two Milwaukee starts and led 109 laps from pole position in the most recent visit to the one-mile oval.
His consistency should level out. If that happens, Newgarden will be a greater threat for the championship. A more balanced season should make him dangerous. However, if he keeps having one or two stray results, it could cost him.
Scott McLaughlin - #3 DEX Imaging/XPEL/Snap-On/Pennzoil/Good Ranchers/Sonsio Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
8.928: Average finish in 14 oval starts.
2,258: Laps completed in 2023, tied for the most in IndyCar with Álex Palou.
28: Consecutive races finished.
What does a championship season look like for him?
Continuing on the top ten form from the end of last season, except McLaughlin takes it up a notch, and opens with a run of five straight top five finishes, including podium finishes on the first two street courses and his first top five result in the Indianapolis 500.
He will get bucked from the horse at Detroit but bounce back with a win at Road America before another top five finish at Laguna Seca. A top ten will follow at Mid-Ohio, but he will win one of the two Iowa races and then head into the Olympic break with a Toronto victory.
Back from break, McLaughlin wins at Gateway, finishes on the podium at Portland and then has a victory and another top five at Milwaukee, setting him up in the championship lead for Nashville. A podium in the finale seals the championship for the New Zealander in his fourth full season.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
McLaughlin has the consistency Newgarden needs, but McLaughlin is a tad off the championship level. That final step is not impractical for this season. It is plausible McLaughlin could win four or five times and win at least once on each track discipline. His teammate Newgarden could be his greatest hurdle to a championship. If Newgarden regains his form, he could be the one thing in McLaughlin's way and cancel out whatever improved results McLaughlin has.
In the last two seasons, McLaughlin has settled into being a sure pair of hands. In the last 26 races, he has 22 top ten finishes. However, ten of those results have been in the back half of the top ten. Those are fine results, but they need to be just a little better to win a championship. A title isn't out of the question. But will a two-victory, six-podium season be enough if he has ten results between sixth and tenth?
Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
Numbers to Remember:
10: Podium finishes in his last 27 races.
0: Victories in the last 27 races.
40: Consecutive races finished, 11 finishes away from breaking Danica Patrick's record.
What does a championship season look like for him?
A championship season for Power at this point in his career will likely follow the blueprint of 2022. He might win only once or twice, but he will suffocate the championship by consistently finishing on the podium and in the top five.
The season will begin with five consecutive top five finishes, three of which are podium finishes. He will have another run of six top five finishes over the next eight races, and he will close the season with at least two podium results in the final four events.
It will also likely require the rest of the field not being dominant with every driver having the off-day on a semi-regular basis. There might be a few drivers that win more, but they will have a handful of bad results that keep Power out of touching distance as Power finishes no worse than 15th all season.
What does a realistic season look like for him?
Power turns 43 years old on March 1. Though winless, 2023 was not a bad season for him. With the strength of IndyCar at the moment, it is not guaranteed we see Power return to his past form. We haven't seen him win multiple races in a season since 2020, he has't won on an oval since 2019 and he hasn't won at least three races in a season since 2018. In two of the last three seasons, he has finished outside the top five in the championship after 11 consecutive seasons finishing in the championship top five.
We are seeing a regression.
Power could find a spark and win a race or two in 2024, but still end up sixth or seventh in the championship. He is the third-best Penske driver at the moment. Álex Palou is the best driver in the series. Scott Dixon is still performing at an incredible level. Then you have Patricio O'Ward, Colton Herta and Alexander Rossi, all three who went winless last season but hungry to correct that, Marcus Ericsson is quietly consistent, and there is a sleeper in Christian Lundgaard. That is what Power is up against entering his 20th season in IndyCar.
Power isn't going to fall off the cliff. He will be on the podium a handful of times and have plenty of top ten finishes, but we are not going to see the Will Power of old with four or five victories and three victories from pole position.
The first round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar Series season will be the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg on March 10. Coverage will begin at noon on NBC and Peacock.
