Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Let's Look at the League - September 2024

A season is complete and it is time to put to bed a feature that follows an IndyCar season. The head-to-head, fictional league season ends with the IndyCar season, and it is time to cover how that wrapped up. 

We will look over how the playoffs played out, what entries are going down, and what entry earned the final promotion spot to the 2025 season. We will also lay out how next year will look. 

Where did we leave off? 
When we last covered the league format, we were entering the final weekend of the League One regular season. We knew the #11 Ganassi entry would be relegated, but playoff spots and seeding were still to be decided, as well as the final automatic relegation spot. 

How did the final weekend play out?

Week 14 (Portland):
#10 Ganassi def. #5 McLaren (2nd to 15th)
#2 Penske def. #45 RLLR (3rd to 13th)
#26 Andretti def. #6 McLaren (4th to 21st)
#11 Ganassi def. #28 Andretti (5th to 6th)

#3 Penske def. #9 Ganassi (7th to 28th)
#12 Penske def. #8 Ganassi (1st to 23rd)
#27 Andretti def. #7 McLaren (10th to 12th)
#15 RLLR def. #77 JHR (9th to 27th)

What did this mean? 

In Conference 1, the #10 Ganassi had already locked up the #1 seed, as had the #26 Andretti the #2 seed. With the #2 Penske winning, it ensured it would get the #3 seed as the #5 McLaren lost and dropped to the #4 seed on tiebreaker. The #6 McLaren had a chance of making it with a win, but its loss meant it would finish fifth and be ensured safety for the 2025 season. The #45 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entry and the #28 Andretti Global entry would go to the relegation playoff.

The #3 Penske clinched the #1 seed while the #27 Andretti took the #2 seed. The #9 Ganassi lost but kept the #3 seed and the #12 Penske entry won to clinch its spot in the playoffs. The #7 McLaren ended up fifth and safe for 2025. The #15 RLLR and the #77 Juncos Hollinger Racing entry had to go to the relegation playoff. A loss at Portland relegated the #8 Ganassi entry.  

Playoffs
Quarterfinals (Milwaukee)
#12 Penske def. #10 Ganassi (2nd to 5th)
#27 Andretti def. #2 Penske (12th to 26th)
#9 Ganassi def. #26 Andretti (10th to 22nd)
#5 McLaren def. #3 Penske (1st to 8th)

It was a good round for the teams from Conference 2. Three of the four advancing were from the second conference, but the one Conference 2 entry eliminated was the #1 seed, the #3 Penske. Both #1 seeds were gone. The #10 Ganassi entry lost as well. 

The #27 Andretti got away with an average day as Josef Newgarden had an accident in the #2 Penske. The #9 Ganassi also benefitted from Colton Herta's loose tire. 

Semifinals (Milwaukee)
#27 Andretti def. #12 Penske (8th to 10th)
#9 Ganassi def. #5 McLaren (2nd to 24th)

We had to only wait less than 24 hours before the semifinals in the second race of the Milwaukee doubleheader, and one was anti-climatic. The other swung wildly. 

When Patricio O'Ward retired due to a mechanical issue, it handed the #9 Ganassi entry and Scott Dixon a spot in the final. One spot was decided early. The other spot also looked settled, but it took a turn. 

Will Power was set to take the #12 Penske into the final over Kyle Kirkwood in the #27 Andretti, but the race was anything but straight-forward. The timing of cautions shuffled Power back. Power spun on his own and it trapped him a lap down. What looked to be certain ended up going Kirkwood's way and put the American in the final despite the start from Power. 

Final (Nashville) 
#27 Andretti def. #9 Ganassi (4th to 17th)

The final was not much of a battle. Kyle Kirkwood started on pole position while Scott Dixon was in the middle of the field. It was the closest when Kirkwood was trapped on pit lane when the first caution came out, but Kirkwood was able to cycle to the lead lap while Dixon remained trapped a lap down. 

Kirkwood drove forward while Dixon could not get back onto the lead lap. Keeping it clean, Kirkwood claimed the 2024 league championship

Relegation Playoff
Semifinals (Milwaukee) 
#45 RLLR def. #77 JHR (9th to 24th)
#15 RLLR def. #28 Andretti (20th to 27th)

After a tough season, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing finally got to celebrate a bright day at arguably what could not have been a better time. 

Facing the possibility of one of its two entries in League One being relegated, both RLLR cars won in the semifinal round and clinched safety for one more season. 

For Christian Lundgaard in the #45 entry, it benefited from the #77 Chevrolet of Romain Grosjean suffering some suspension damage and taking the Frenchman effectively out of the race. Lundgaard also had the race go in his favor as cautions went his way and allowed him to finish ninth as other teams made mistakes and some were trapped in pit cycles.

For Graham Rahal, it was plain luck. Rahal did not run much better than his finishing position of 20th all race, but Marcus Ericsson tangling and falling out of the race with Newgarden gifted Rahal the head-to-head victory and put Ericsson on the brink of relegation. 

Final (Milwaukee) 
#28 Andretti def. #77 JHR (5th to 9th)

It was a rather tense relegation final. Grosjean and Ericsson started within two spots of one another. Both cars went forward during the second Milwaukee race. Both were in the top ten and trying to get more using different strategies. Grosjean saved his tires and was going to make one fewer pit stop. Ericsson was a little more aggressive and caught a break getting the wave around when the Sting Ray Robb caution occurred. 

This allowed Ericsson to make his final pit stop while back on the lead lap, and he had better tires in the sprint to the finish. Ericsson was able to drive to fifth and keep a spot in League One while Grosjean and Juncos Hollinger Racing suffered relegation despite finishing ninth. 

League Two - Phase Two
When we left off in August, League Two was in its second phase of the season. 

The #14 Foyt entry and the #60 Meyer Shank Racing entry had clinched the first two promotion spots in the first phase, the single round robin. The next eight entries in League Two were split into two groups of four for another round robin where the top two from each would move to the Promotion Playoff. The final round of this stage was at Portland.

In Group A, the #41 Foyt entry was 2-0 and locked into the Promotion Playoff. The #66 Meyer Shank Racing entry and the #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing entries were tied at 1-1 and the winner would get the other spot in the Promotion Playoff. The #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry was 0-2 and locked into another year in League Two. 

In Group B, it was all about seeding. The #4 Ganassi entry and the #21 ECR entry were both 2-0, about to face one another on the final day of the group stage to decide which entry would win the group, and neither Dale Coyne Racing entry had won.

What happened?

The #41 Foyt entry went 3-0 defeating the #20 ECR entry with an 18th-place finish to a 26th. 

Neither the #66 MSR nor the #78 JHR entry was particularly quick at Portland. David Malukas was able to be just a bit better, finishing 20th while Conor Daly was 22nd. 

The #21 ECR took the top spot in Group B as Rinus VeeKay was 11th to Kyffin Simpson's 16th. The #51 DCR entry beat the #18 DCR entry, 17th to 24th, in a battle for pride. 

This set up the #41 Foyt vs. the #4 Ganassi and the #21 ECR and the #66 MSR in the two semifinals at Milwaukee. 

Promotion Playoff
Semifinals (Milwaukee) 
#41 Foyt def. #4 Ganassi (23rd to 25th)
#21 ECR def. #66 MSR (14th to 15th)

They were both close. In the first semifinal, both cars had issues, but the #4 Ganassi's electrical issues were more devastating, and it allowed Sting Ray Robb to win though finishing 23rd. 

Both Rinus VeeKay and David Malukas looked poised for a top ten finish in the first Milwaukee race, but both slid back down the stretch. Malukas was cycled backward after the first round of pit stops and kept falling back. The final caution was not favorable for VeeKay and cost him spots. VeeKay was able to edge out Malukas and stay alive for promotion.

Final (Milwaukee) 
#21 ECR def. #41 Foyt (7th to 18th)

This was going in VeeKay's favor the entire race, and Robb's accident late sealed what we all saw coming. VeeKay's methodical drive forward into the top ten got the #21 ECR entry a spot back in the top league. 

What does the league structure tentatively look like for 2025?

2025 League One - Conference One
#10 Ganassi
#12 Penske
#5 McLaren
#2 Penske
#7 McLaren
#60 MSR
#28 Andretti
#15 RLLR

2025 League One - Conference Two
#26 Andretti
#3 Penske
#9 Ganassi
#27 Andretti
#14 Foyt
#45 RLLR
#21 ECR
#6 McLaren

2025 League Two
#8 Ganassi
#77 JHR
#66 MSR
#78 JHR
#20 ECR
#30 RLLR
#41 Foyt
#51 Coyne
#18 Coyne
#83 Prema
#90 Prema

It is rather ironic that two Ganassi entries were relegated and two Ganassi entries are being contracted from the grid. We didn't get caught in an odd spot where one of the League One entries was disappearing and we would have to figure out which entry would fill that final spot in the top league. 

However, with Prema entering with two cars, it means we will have 27 entries spread over the two leagues, and League Two will likely remain in its multi-phase format with a single round robin before the group stage to determine the Promotion Playoff. That was the easiest way to lay it out.

With the introduction of the charter system and the field capped at 27 entries running in all races other than the Indianapolis 500, it does mean 27 entries will likely be the maximum for the league format moving forward. A 28th car will miss every race. There is no point in expanding a team or a team entering if it will be the 28th car unless it is certain it will not miss any races. Don't get me wrong, I wish IndyCar had 28 entries be the maximum because that would at least leave the door open for a 28th full-time car, which would give League Two an even-number with 12 participants. But IndyCar isn't thinking about make-believe when making its business decisions.

Of course, the world could be shaken upside down between now and the first race. A formal confirmation of what the 2025 leagues will look like will come in February when we are almost entirely certain what the IndyCar grid will look like.