The 17th and final round of the 2024 NTT IndyCar season will be held at Nashville Superspeedway, the first visit to the circuit in 16 years with a championship coming down to effectively one of two drivers. After racing on the streets of downtown Nashville the previous three seasons, the Music City Grand Prix moves 34 miles southeast to the 1.333-mile concrete oval with a mailing address in Lebanon, Tennessee. This will be the ninth race held on the circuit. It is the first time the IndyCar season has ended on an oval since 2014. An oval had hosted the season finale in the first seven seasons after reunification. In four of those seven seasons, the driver entering as the championship leader did not leave as champion. However, the championship lead has not changed hands in the final race since 2015.
Coverage
Time: NBC's coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday September 15 with green flag scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Georgia Henneberry and Dave Burns will work pit lane.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Georgia Henneberry and Dave Burns will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Saturday:
First Practice: 11:00 a.m. ET (90 minutes)
Qualifying: 2:15 p.m. ET
Final Practice: 5:15 p.m. ET (Two hours and 45 minutes)
Sunday:
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (206 laps)
Sunday:
Race: 3:30 p.m. ET (206 laps)
Palou vs. Power
The Astor Cup will likely be handed to either Álex Palou or Will Power when the 267.8-mile race around Nashville Superspeedway is over on Sunday afternoon.
Palou enters as the championship leader with 525 points. Thirty-three points behind him is Power. Scott McLaughlin has a mathematical chance on paper, but at 50 points back, his only real shot is if Palou is unable to participate at Nashville and then McLaughlin winning the finale. As soon as Palou starts the race, McLaughlin will be eliminated from the championship.
Palou will clinch the championship if he finishes ninth or better, regardless of what Power does. With three victories, Power owns the tiebreaker over Palou's two victories. Power also has four runner-up finishes to Palou's three. No matter what, Power must score at least 38 points this weekend to win the championship. That means he must finish at least second or finish third with at least three bonus points. A bonus point is on offer for pole position and leading a lap while the driver who leads the most laps will earn two bonus points.
This is the third time in four seasons Palou enters the season finale with a hand on the trophy. In 2021, Palou was 35 points clear of Patricio O'Ward and 48 points ahead of Josef Newgarden entering the Long Beach season finale. A 12th-place finish would have clinched the championship for Palou regardless of where anyone else finished on that day. O'Ward was spun on the opening lap and a subsequent driveshaft failure would end his race before the quarter point. Palou climbed to fourth to claim the title.
Last year, Palou had both arms around the Astor Cup as he clinched the title a race early with a victory in Portland, the first driver to claim a title with races to spare since 2007.
After winning five races, standing on ten podiums and finishing no worse than eighth, Palou has followed up his 2023 championship season with another remarkable run of form. He has only won twice and stood on six podiums, but he has 13 top five finishes and could have consecutive seasons with 14 top five results. He has also started on pole position three times and he was the big money winner at The Thermal Challenge exhibition race in March.
The challenger, Will Power, started this season on a 27-race winless streak, the longest of his career. That streak increased to 33 races, but he got off the snide at Road America after outclassing his Team Penske teammates McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden in pit strategy, leaping from third to first. Power would go on to win the second Iowa race after catching a timely caution prior to his first pit stop and he thoroughly control the Grand Prix of Portland.
While having three victories and four runner-up finishes, Power's next best finish this season is seventh. Power has finished outside the top ten in five races.
Both drivers enter the finale looking for their third championship. For Palou, it would be his third in four years and third in a five-year IndyCar career. For Power, it would be his second in three seasons and it would come ten years after his first. This will be the tenth time Power has gone into a season finale with a shot at the title.
On the first three occasions, Power entered as the championship leader and lost the title. It happened over three consecutive seasons from 2010 to 2012. On the fourth time, Power led entering the 2014 finale at Fontana and held on for the championship.
He had a shot at the title in 2015, 61 points back in fourth heading into a double-point season finale at Sonoma. He ended up third, 63 points back. In 2016, he was second, 43 points behind Simon Pagenaud. Pagenaud clinched the championship at Sonoma with a race victory. The 2017 season nearly mirrored 2015. Power was 68 points behind Josef Newgarden with double points on the line. He ended up finishing fifth, 80 points off.
It was the fifth consecutive season Power entered a season finale with something to race for in 2018, as he was 87 points off the championship lead and requiring a victory with Scott Dixon finishing last at Sonoma. Neither of those things happened. Third in the race and third in the championship was the ultimate consolation prize.
Power would not be alive for another championship in the final race until the 2022 season. Power was up 20 points on Newgarden and Dixon, 39 points clear of Marcus Ericsson and 41 points in front of McLaughlin as any of the five drivers could have left Laguna Seca as championship that year. In Power's favor was the finale was no longer a double-point affair. Anything on the podium would seal him the title, and Power finished third.
For Palou, he could become the second-youngest driver to three championships. Only Sam Hornish, Jr. had three championships at a younger age. Palou would be two months and six days older than Hornish, Jr. if he wins the championship on Sunday. Palou would also become the third Team Penske driver with at least three IndyCar championships joining Scott Dixon and Dario Franchitti.
For Power, he could become the second-oldest driver to three championships. Only Al Unser won his this championship at an older age. Unser's third and final title in 1985 came when he was 46 years old. A third championship would have Power match Rick Mears for most championships with the Penske organization.
Power's Last Chance for a Pivotal Point
Every point matters in the championship, and the first point awarded comes on Saturday during qualifying. The fastest qualifier will earn one point for pole position. Not only does pole position get a driver a point, but it sets up well to at least lead one lap, which would be another bonus point for a driver.
It might come to surprise but through 16 races, Will Power has no bonus points for pole position because Power has yet to win a pole position this season. The all-time leader in pole positions with 70 is on the verge of his first season without a pole position since 2008 when Power moved to IndyCar with KV Racing during reunification. Power has won a pole position in 15 consecutive seasons and in 18 of his 20 years in IndyCar. The only other season he did not win pole position was 2005 when he ran the final two Champ Car races for Walker Racing, doing business as Team Australia.
It has been 21 races since Power's most recent pole position. His previous longest drought was 18 races that included the 17 races he ran in the 2008 season and the 2009 season opener from St. Petersburg. If there is any hope for Power it is that five of his last six pole positions have come on ovals, and six of his eight pole positions have come on ovals. Team Penske has also started on pole position for five of six oval races this season.
It has not been for a lack of effort. Power has an average starting position of 6.875 through the first 16 races. Only Scott McLaughlin is better at 5.6875, and McLaughlin's five pole positions are the most this season. Power has started on the front row five times. Team Penske has three of the top four drivers in average starting position this season as Josef Newgarden is fourth at 7.625. Sandwiched in-between the Penske drivers is Álex Palou, third-best in the series at 7.4375.
Pole position would be just the start for Power. He needs to win pole position but he would also likely need to win the race. Power has not won from pole position since the second race of the Harvest Grand Prix weekend on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course on October 3, 2020, ten pole positions ago. Power led all 75 laps in that race. Power does lead all active drivers with victories from pole position with 18. He is tied with Sébastien Bourdais in the record books for third-most all-time. Only Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt have more.
If there is another positive for Power, he has finished on the podium in six of the nine races he has started on pole positions since he last won from the top starting spot. He has finished sixth or better in eight of those nine races.
Eight different drivers have started on pole position this season with five different teams having claimed a pole position. Two drivers have scored their first career pole position this season.
History says qualifying will be important at Nashville. While the pole-sitter only won once in the first eight visits to the circuit, no Nashville winner started worse than sixth. While Power won the second Iowa race from 22nd starting position, the average starting spot for an oval winner this season is 6.333 with a median of third starting position.
Of course, there is one way nobody claims the point for pole position. If qualifying is rained out and the grid is set via points, no point would be awarded, which could be costly to Power.
Last Chance for a Win
Sixteen chances are gone. Only one remains for a victory in 2024. For 20 drivers, this will be the final shot to put their name in the record book as a winner in this season.
For Kyle Kirkwood, Christian Lundgaard and Marcus Ericsson, this is the final chance for them to continue their winning streaks. For Kirkwood and Lundgaard, it would be a victory in a second consecutive season after each driver had their first career victories come in 2023. Ericsson has won a race in three consecutive seasons.
Kirkwood sits the best of these drivers in the championship in seventh on 384 points. He has not finished in the top five since he was second at Toronto in July. His record on ovals this season has been three top ten with an average finish of 12th. Lundgaard had his best two oval finishes at Milwaukee with finishes of ninth and 12th, but his average oval result has been 14.667. This has been a trying season for Ericsson. Thirteenth in the championship, he is on pace for his worst season since he was 17th in his rookie year. On ovals, his average finish is 20.1667 with four results of 23rd or worse.
Along with Kirkwood, two other drivers are in the top ten in the championship without a victory. Alexander Rossi is eighth in points. Santino Ferrucci is tenth. Rossi has not in 37 starts. Ferrucci has not won 76 career starts. It has been over six years since Rossi won on an oval. The last time a first-time winner occurred in a season finale was Ed Carpenter at Kentucky in 2011. Along with Ferrucci, 12 other drivers will enter Nashville looking for a first career victory. Only one driver has had a first career victory at Nashville Superspeedway. That was Alex Barron in the 2002 race driving for Blair Racing.
Felix Rosenqvist has not won in 74 starts. Rinus VeeKay has not won in 60 starts. Both drivers have only won once in their career. Rosenqvist has only two top five finishes in his career on ovals. The first was in the 2022 Indianapolis 500. The other was second race of the 2023 Iowa doubleheader. Both were fourth-place results. VeeKay's fifth in the first Iowa race this season was his first top five result in two years, which also came at Iowa. His only other top five finish on an oval in his career was the second race of the 2020 Gateway doubleheader.
Graham Rahal has not won in 123 starts. The record for most starts between victories is 124 starts, which Graham Rahal set between his first career victory at St. Petersburg in 2008 and Fontana in 2015. His best finish this season was eighth in the second Iowa race. He has not had a top five since he was runner-up last July in the second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. he has not had a top five finish on an oval since the second race of the 2021 Texas doubleheader when he finished third.
The most recent driver to score a first victory of the season in the season finale was Álex Palou at Laguna Seca last year. Prior to that it was Tony Kanaan at Fontana in 2014.
Oval Points
Nashville is the seventh and final oval race of the 2024 season, and the oval championship is already over. With 254 points, 69 points clear of second with only 54 points remaining on the table, Scott McLaughlin has clinched the unofficial oval championship with a race to spare.
McLaughlin has won two oval races, stood on the podium four times and his worst finish has been eighth through the first six oval races. His average finish on ovals this season is 3.5. McLaughlin has also started on pole position in four oval races, and he has started on pole position at every oval track on this year's schedule. Of the 637 laps McLaughlin has led this season, 556 of those laps have been on ovals.
The New Zealander is 11th driver to win the oval champion since the honor was first officially recognized in 2010. This is the eighth time in 15 years a Team Penske driver has taken the top honor on ovals. However, since 2010, only three times has the driver with the most oval points in a season won the overall championship. Scott Dixon was the last to accomplish it in 2020.
While McLaughlin has first locked up, it is a nine-way battle for second.
The 2023 oval champion Josef Newgarden is second on 185 points after victories at Indianapolis and Gateway. However, with finishes of 26th and 27th at Milwaukee, Newgarden is only five points ahead of Scott Dixon in third. Dixon has not won an oval race this season, but he does have four top five finishes and his worst oval results is 11th. Two-time oval champion Patricio O'Ward is seven points off of second, and O'Ward has an oval victory and three podium finishes over the six races.
Santino Ferrucci is fifth in oval points with 162 points. Ferrucci has two top five finishes and four top ten finishes on ovals this season with his worst result being 12th. He was fourth in both Milwaukee races. Ferrucci is five points ahead of Will Power, who has two victories and three podium finishes on ovals, but Power has also finished 18th or worse in the other three oval races.
Overall championship leader Álex Palou is seventh on 154 oval points. Palou's worst two results have been on ovals, but he does have four top five finishes in this discipline. A first career oval victory still eludes the Catalan driver. Alexander Rossi is on 148 points, five points ahead of Rinus VeeKay.
Colton Herta is the final driver mathematically eligible for second in oval points. Herta is 52 points back with 54 left on the table. Herta will be eliminated from second once Newgarden starts the race. He will also be eliminated from third once Dixon starts the race. The best Herta can finish in oval points is fourth.
Just outside the top ten in oval points are Kyle Kirkwood on 119 points, 14 points behind his Andretti Global teammate Herta. Linus Lundqvist is 25 points outside the top ten. Felix Rosenqvist is 38 points off Herta while Christian Lundgaard is 39 points out. Conor Daly, despite having only run five of six oval races, is 15th in oval points, and he is the final driver mathematically eligible for the top ten in oval points. Daly trails Herta by 42 points.
Leader Circle Battle
While the championship will draw most of our focus, there is a battle at the bottom of the championship for funding in the 2025 season. The final Leader Circle spots for 2025 will be decided at Nashville, and it has been tight at the bottom all season. The Leader Circle has also been a motivator for driver changes throughout the season.
Only 22 teams will get the funding that is a little over $1 million from IndyCar for the following season, and each organization is limited to three Leader Circle spots.
Eighteen of the 22 spots have been decided. The remaining four spots have seven cars competing. The final four spots are currently held by the #78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevrolet, the #66 Meyer Shank Racing Honda, the #30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda and the #41 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet.
There are three entries on the outside with a chance at obtain a spot, the #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet, the #51 Dale Coyne Racing Honda and the #18 Dale Coyne Racing Honda.
Thanks to a third-place finish in the first Milwaukee race, Conor Daly has the #78 JHR Chevrolet on 189 points and 15 points above the cutline entering the Nashville finale. Two points behind the #78 Chevrolet is Meyer Shank Racing with its #66 Honda. After the Indianapolis 500, the #66 Honda was tied for the final spot with the #41 Foyt entry.
Only three points cover the next three entries. The #30 RLLR Honda has 177 points, two more than the #41 Foyt Chevrolet in the 22nd and final spot, and three points ahead of the #20 ECR Chevrolet on the outside, which will have Christian Rasmussen in the car for the finale.
The two Dale Coyne Racing cars both have an outside shot at the Leader Circle spots. The #51 Honda is 15 points from safety while the #18 Honda is 38 points on the outside. The #18 Honda can only make the Leader Circle if its finishes at least second or third with at least three bonus points scored.
Since returning from the Olympic break, the #78 JHR Chevrolet leads all of these entrants with 73 points scored over the last four races. At the time of the change from Agustín Canapino to Conor Daly, the #78 Chevrolet was only one point better than the #51 Dale Coyne Racing Honda in the championship and in the first spot on the outside.
The only other car in the Leader Circle battle to score more than 50 points over the previous four races is the #20 ECR Chevrolet. Dale Coyne Racing's #51 Honda has the next most points with 45, one more the #41 Foyt Chevrolet and three more than the #30 RLLR Honda. The #18 Coyne Honda has actually score more points over the last four races than MSR's #66 Honda. The #18 Honda has scored 36 points to the #66 Honda's 33 points.
Entering this season, the #66 MSR Honda, the #41 Foyt Chevrolet and the #51 Coyne Honda were all non-chartered entries after those three failed to qualify at the end of the 2023 season.
Strange But True Facts Entering the Season Finale
Many things have happened this season, and there are a few things you might not have noticed that we should cover before we get to Nashville.
For starters, did you realize Honda has won at least one oval race in every season since engine competition returned to IndyCar in 2012? That streak is endangered as Honda has not won an oval race this season. Chevrolet has won 13 of the last 14 oval races. Last year, Honda avoided being shut out in oval victories with a win in the final oval race of the season at Gateway Motorsports Park and Scott Dixon.
Since 2012, Chevrolet has won 49 of 71 oval races.
Through 16 races, Santino Ferrucci has been the top starting A.J. Foyt Racing entry in all 16 races. On two occasions, Ferrucci has started one position better than Sting Ray Robb. That was at Long Beach and the first Milwaukee race.
It should be no surprise that championship leader Álex Palou has led the way for Chip Ganassi Racing. Palou has been the top Ganassi finisher in eight of the first 16 races. Scott Dixon has had a respectable season in his own right. Dixon has been the top Ganassi finisher in six races. However, Dixon has not been the top Ganassi starter once this season.
Palou has been the top Ganassi starter nine times. Marcus Armstrong has been the best Ganassi starter in five races while Linus Lundqvist has been the best twice, but Dixon has yet to be the best starting Ganassi driver. Dixon has been the second-best Ganassi starter on eight occasions.
Regardless of the result, Patricio O'Ward will finish as the top Arrow McLaren driver in the championship, but there is a chance O'Ward will finish level for most times as the top McLaren finisher. Entering the season finale, O'Ward has been the best McLaren finisher seven times while Alexander Rossi has been the best McLaren finisher six times.
However, O'Ward can only finish tied for best starter at McLaren as Rossi has been the best starter in eight races while O'Ward has been the top McLaren car on the grid in seven races.
The best starting position not to produce a winner this season is fourth. Last season, fourth starting position produced four winners, the most in the 2023 season. This would be the second consecutive seasons where the starting position that produced the most winners in the previous season went winless.
In 2022, the second starting spot produced seven winners. In 2023, second starting position produced zero winners. Second on the grid went 29 consecutive races without a victory before Patricio O'Ward won at Mid-Ohio. The winner has started second in four of the last eight races, including the most recent race, the second race of the Milwaukee doubleheader.
Through 16 races, there has not been a first-time winner, meaning we are just one race away from having the first season without a first-time winner since 2018. There was actually a span of two consecutive seasons without a first-time winner over 2017 and 2018. Over the previous five seasons, there have been nine first-time winners.
One other season finale specific nugget, the winner of the last three season finales have all started outside the top ten. In 2021, Colton Herta won from 14th at Long Beach. In 2022, Álex Palou won from 11th at Laguna Seca. Last year, Scott Dixon won from 11th at Laguna Seca.
Indy Lights
The IndyCar championship might be undecided but the Indy Lights championship has been wrapped up. With his victory at Milwaukee, Louis Foster clinched the 2024 Indy Lights championship with a race remaining.
Foster has scored 586 points through the first 13 races with seven victories and 11 podium finishes. He has finished in the top seven of every race. Foster carries a streak of ten consecutive finishes in the top two into Nashville. He has won all three oval races this season, and he could become the first Indy Lights driver with at least four oval victories in a season since Dillon Battistini in 2008.
While Foster has first locked up, Jacob Abel has second under wraps. Ninety-three points behind Foster and 92 points ahead of Caio Collet, Abel will be second regardless of the result in Sunday's finale. Abel has won three times and he has ten podium finishes. He has been runner-up to Foster in the last two oval races at Gateway and Milwaukee.
Caio Collet makes it the three of the top three spots clinched before even getting to the season finale. Collet has a 83-point cushion over Callum Hedge. Collet won at Mid-Ohio and he has five podium finishes, but he has not been on the podium since his Mid-Ohio victory. The Brazilian's average finish on ovals this season is 13th with his best result being eighth.
Fourth is the first position being fought over. Callum Hedge is 17 points ahead of Salvador de Alba while Jamie Chadwick is 21 points back. Hedge and de Alba each have a best finish of third this season while Chadwick won at Road America, but fifth at Milwaukee was her best result since that victory. Reece Gold is 29 points outside of fourth and Gold is still looking for his first podium finish of the season. James Roe, Jr. is 34 points from fourth, but Roe, Jr. has two podium finishes. He has also finished outside the top ten in seven races.
Bryce Aron is ninth on 276 points, but Aron has finished in the top ten in four consecutive races with his last two finishes being in the top five. Yuven Sundaramoorthy and Myles Rowe are tied for tenth on 269 points. Sundaramoorthy was third at Gateway and he has four consecutive top ten finishes as well. After opening the season with five consecutive top ten finishes, Rowe has only two top ten finishes in the last eight races and his average finish over that stretch is 14.75.
Christian Bogle is four points outside the top ten while Jonathan Browne is a further four points behind Bogle.
The final race of the Indy Lights season will take place at 11:50 a.m. ET on Sunday September 15. The race is scheduled for 65 laps.
Fast Facts
This will be the 15th IndyCar race to take place on September 15 and the first since Ed Carpenter won at Fontana in 2012, which was the season finale.
This will be the third consecutive time a race on September 15 will serve as a season finale. Prior to 2012, the most recent race on September 15 was in 2002, which was the Indy Racing League season finale from Texas Motor Speedway. Sam Hornish, Jr. won that race and clinched his second consecutive championship.
Nashville Superspeedway will become the seventh consecutive different circuit to host a race on September 15. Michigan International Speedway hosted a race on this date in 1979, Mid-Ohio in 1991, Las Vegas in 1996, Lausitzring in 2001, Texas in 2002 and Fontana in 2012.
This will be the fifth consecutive race on September 15 to occur on an oval.
Three drivers had their first career victory come on September 15. Tommy Milton won at Providence on September 15, 1917. Seven years later, Phil Shafer's first career victory came at Syracuse. In 1996, Richie Hearn won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The most cars to start a Nashville race was 24 in 2008.
Four Nashville races had fewer than 22 starters.
The average starting position for a Nashville winner is 4.125 with a median of fourth.
Fifth on the grid has produced the most Nashville winners, three. Fourth has won twice. First, third and sixth have all won once.
The driver who led the most laps only won once in the first eight Nashville races. That was Scott Dixon in 2007, who led 105 of 200 laps on his way to victory.
The average number of lead changes in a Nashville race is eight with a median of nine.
The most lead changes in a Nashville race was 11 in 2001 and 2005.
The fewest lead changes in a Nashville race was three in 2004.
The average number of cautions in a Nashville race is five with a median of 5.375. The average number of caution laps is 42.625 with a median of 44.5.
Every Nashville race has had at least three cautions.
The most cautions in a Nashville race was eight in 2002 and 2003.
Half of the Nashville races had at least 25% of the laps run under caution.
Predictions
Colton Herta takes advantage of two teams focusing on two drivers and closes the season with a victory ahead of Patricio O'Ward. Will Power rounds out the podium but Álex Palou will finish fourth. Every car that lines up on the grid will take the green flag. There will be at least five cautions and there will be a spell where a caution happens within two laps of a restart. The #20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevrolet will get the final Leader Circle spot. Romain Grosjean's season will end prematurely. Josef Newgarden will go the distance. At least eight cars finish on the lead lap. Sleeper: Rinus VeeKay.
