Musings From the Weekend: Was Passing as Low as We Thought?

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Daniel Ricciardo took fastest lap to keep a grand slam from Lando Norris in Singapore, in what everyone believes will be Ricciardo's final grand prix start. Now, Formula One starts its sneaky autumn break. Italy was busy with two-wheel racing, and a pair of championships continue to become intriguing as we inch closer to October. It was a good weekend for the locals. It was battle of brotherly love in Las Vegas. Tire wear befuddled many at Bristol. However, we are looking into some IndyCar numbers as an extensive review is about to begin.

Was Passing as Low as We Thought?

We are coming off a contentious IndyCar season. On-track, off-track, driver-to-driver, team owner-to team owner, Argentines-to-anyone, top executive-to-most popular driver on the grid. Peace was hard to find in 2024.

Even if things were going right, it wasn't good enough. People got fed up pretty quickly. Looking at the raw numbers and comparing it to past seasons, 2024 did not look much different from other seasons in recent years. Team Penske and Chip Ganassi Racing dominated, Andretti Global and Arrow McLaren won a few times, there were some brilliant races, some that were forgettable, it was your typical IndyCar season, but that was not as warmly accepted as in the past.

Some of it could be projecting distain over other things going on in IndyCar away from the racing itself, but there was a sense that the racing was not as good as other recent seasons. Throw in the introduction of the hybrid system in the second half of the season, and people had something to blame if a race was not up to a certain standard. 

But's let go over if feelings match what actually happened. It is one thing to believe the racing was not as good and passing was down and the hybrid system was hurting racing, but do the raw numbers support that? 

It should be acknowledged that the 2024 calendar did not exactly match the 2023 calendar. There were three different races. After racing at Texas, the streets of Nashville and a second race on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in 2023, the 2024 calendar saw a Milwaukee doubleheader introduced and Nashville Superspeedway replaced the Nashville street race. IndyCar went from a 12-5 split on road/street courses to a 10-7 split. It is not going to be perfect to compare the two seasons, but what if we compared the 14 races that remained unchanged. How did those compare year-to-year?

They were down, and it looks like a lot, but there is one area where we can account for all those passes.

In 2023, among the 14 unchanged races to the 2024 season, there was 6,214 passes. This season, those 14 races accounted for 4,024 passes, a 2,190 decrease in passes, or just over 35.243%, but all of that comes from Iowa. 

Iowa went from two races that had 1,502 passes and 1,168 passes to two races that had 192 passes and 204 passes. That is an 87.217% decrease and an 82.534% decrease respectively over the two races of the doubleheader. No other race saw a decrease in passing over 50% year-to-year.

If you remove the depressing Iowa week, the numbers are rather favorable. 

In those 12 unchanged races, the number of passes went up. This year had 3,628 passes compared to 3,544 passes. Nothing earth-shattering, but more than last year. 

Why did it feel so much worse than it was? 

We can point to that middle of the season stretch that coincided with the introduction of the hybrid. 

The first hybrid race from Mid-Ohio was not a barnburner, though it did have a great finish and battle between Patricio O'Ward and Álex Palou. Everyone was worried the hybrid would affect the quality of the racing, and people are reactionary. It might have only been the first time, anything but a positive is seen as the end of the world and a step back. 

That Iowa weekend following did not help, but I think we can all point to the lack of passing stemming from the partial track re-pave. The new asphalt in the lower lanes of the corner made it a processional race. With nowhere to pass, cars slowed down to save fuel and make it on two stops, and that made the race worse. The hybrid was not the culprit there.

The numbers are not a perfect indicator of how a race was. Ever since IndyCar starting highly publicizing the passing numbers from race-to-race in 2018, we have been given a figure to react on, but the quality of a race is not as simple as meeting a threshold. It shouldn't be. It is a dangerous thing to keep track of because whether a race was enjoyable or exciting is not as objective as hitting a number. It is a feeling. 

It also not as simple as up or down year-to-year. Passing could be down from the year before but still better than every year prior. That was the case at Road America. This year's Road America had a 44.144% decrease in passing, but last year's Road America race had 444 passes. Prior to 2023, no Road America race had more than 250 passes. This year's race had 248 passes, the second-most since 2018.

For all the concerns about passing, the hybrid didn't seem to hurt the oval races later in the season. Gateway had its most passes since 2018. After all the concerns about quality of racing at Milwaukee and Nashville, Milwaukee had 667 passes and 763 passes over its two races. Nashville had 653 passes. For perspective, the average number of passes in an Iowa race prior to this season was 861.375. The average number of passes in the Indianapolis 500 since 2018 is 537.1429 passes. Prior to its exit from the calendar, Texas Motor Speedway races had an average of 516.4386 passes over it seven races from 2018 to 2023.

Along with Gateway, Barber Motorsports Park, Laguna Seca and the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval each had its most passes in a race since 2018.

Coincidentally, the only tracks this season that had their fewest number of passes since 2018 this season were Mid-Ohio, Iowa and Toronto, the first three tracks after the hybrid was introduced, but even Mid-Ohio and Toronto weren't that far off the average. Mid-Ohio had only 116 passes, but the average there is 161.625. The most passes the track has had since 2018 is 188. This year's Toronto race had 140 passes. The most at Exhibition Place is 184 passes. Neither race was historically bad even by the standard of these circuits. They were low, but not disastrously bad as Iowa.

Not every race can be the greatest ever. Not every season can be the greatest ever. Some races and some years will be adequate. Nothing stellar but nothing horrendous either, and 2024 fell right at that intersection. It feels bad because adequate doesn't feel good enough. IndyCar is looking for more, it wants more, and any missed opportunity to turn heads and grab the viewers by the throat feels like failure. It is unrealistic but unhealthy obsessions are rather easy to embrace. 

It is easy to declare something as worse or disappointing even if the numbers suggest it wasn't that bad at all. We are far from rocking bottom, but that is easier to understand than floating somewhere in the middle, unsure how hard the crash will be, and unsure how far we are from Heaven. 

Champions From the Weekend

Jett Lawrence won the SuperMotocross championship on tiebreaker over brother Hunter Lawrence after Jett Lawrence won the finale from Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Haiden Deegan clinched 250cc SuperMotocross championship with a runner-up finish behind Pierce Brown.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Lando Norris, but did you know...

Enea Bastianini won MotoGP's Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, his second victory of the season. Francesco Bagnaia won the sprint race. Celestino Vietti won the Moto2 race, his second victory of the season. David Alonso won the Moto3 race, his eighth victory of the season.

The #24 BMW M Team RLL BMW of Philipp Eng and Jesse Krohn won IMSA's Battle at the Bricks. The #11 TDS Racing Oreca-Gibson of Mikkel Jensen, Steven Thomas and Hunter McElrea won in LMP2. The #77 AO Racing Porsche of Laurin Heinrich and Michael Christensen won in GTD Pro. The #120 Wright Motorsports Porsche of Jan Heylen, Elliott Skeer and Adam Adelson won in GTD.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Bristol, his fifth victory of the season. Cole Custer won the Grand National Series race, his second victory of the season. Layne Riggs won the Truck race, his second consecutive victory.

Will Brown and Scott Pye won the Sandown 500.

The #37 TGR Team Deloitte TOM'S Toyota of Uyko Sasahara and Giuliano Alesi won the Super GT race from Sportsland SUGO. The #65 K2 R&D LEON Racing Mercedes-AMG of Naoya Gamou and Takuro Shinohara won in GT300.

The #30 OQ by Oman Racing BMW of Jens Klingmann, Sam De Haan and Ahmad Al Harthy won the 3 Hours of Monza.

Danilo Petrucci swept the World Superbike races from Cremona. Adrián Huertas and Stefano Manzi split the World Supersport races.

Coming Up This Weekend

MotoGP flies from Italy to Indonesia.

The European Le Mans Series makes its first visit to Mugello and keeps Italy busy.

NASCAR begins the second round of its playoffs at Kansas.

The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters has its penultimate round from the Red Bull Ring. 

World Superbike moves on to Aragón.

Rally Chile is held.