Christmas is behind us, and this Boxing Day falls on a Friday, which means our annual tradition of Formula One predictions takes you into the weekend. We really have no clue will happen as a new set of regulations will be introduced. It could be more of the same. It could be a giant shakeup. It could start slow and get better. It could be chaotic early and then be even-keel come the midway point of the season. We don’t know. We have no clue.
But let’s shoot from the hip anyway.
1. There will not be a race where McLaren swaps its drivers when both are in a podium position
Perhaps the most notable moment of the 2025 season was at the Italian Grand Prix when McLaren swapped positions after Lando Norris fell behind Oscar Piastri due to a slower pit stop for Norris. The swap moved Norris back up to second, though Piastri was leading the world championship at the time. It was three points to Norris and three points away from Piastri.
Of course, Norris won the title by two points.
This was the second consecutive season with a notable McLaren position swap after pit strategy bit one of its drivers. At Hungry in 2024, Norris was dropped to second and Piastri took the victory after pit strategy put Piastri behind his teammate.
In 2026, I don’t think that will happen again. Either McLaren will not be in a position to swap or it will not have to because the right driver will always been ahead.
2. One race will feature a podium with at least two drivers who were not on the podium in 2025
New regulations, new possibilities.
Somebody is going to do better than expected and experience a big leap forward. A few drivers will go through more rough patches. Some winners are going to remain winners, but the door will be open to someone else having their day in the sun. It doesn’t have to be a victory, but a third would do.
Lewis Hamilton notably did not have a podium finish in 2025. Many are skeptical Ferrari will have anything better than it did in 2025, but maybe it does. Maybe Hamilton gets lucky. He did win a sprint race.
Fernando Alonso is going to be driving an Adrian Newey-designed Aston Martin, and Alonso was not on the podium last year. We have also seen Lance Stroll pick up podium finishes when he is in a competitive car. Don’t rule that out.
The catch here is we need the likes of Alonso and Hamilton, or Hamilton and Esteban Ocon, or Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll to be on the same podium for this prediction to be correct. Things must align. That is where it gets tricky.
3. On at least two occasions will a driver win a race following a retirement
I keep thinking back to 2014 and Lewis Hamilton won the championship after he overcame mechanical issues that did not affect Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg in the same way. And it happened early in the season. Hamilton was out before the season opener from Melbourne even got underway, and he then won four consecutive races. Hamilton then won five consecutive races after he retired from the Belgian Grand Prix.
The level of Hamilton’s responses likely will not be matched in 2026, but why couldn’t Max Verstappen drop out after engine issues in one race only to win the next? Why couldn’t the McLarens get together in one race and then one of them win the next?
We are going to see a few responses from one race to the next.
4. Max Verstappen’s longest podium streak will not be greater than six races
Verstappen ended the 2025 season with ten consecutive podium finishes. Prior to that he had five podium finishes in the first 14 races and he was never on the rostrum for consecutive races.
There will be some balance in 2026. Verstappen will not struggle, but I don’t think he will be inseparable from the podium. He could still have three streaks of five podium finishes during the season and that would be 15 podium finishes, the same total he had this past season.
He is going to be competitive. He will likely carry the car further than it can go. I am not sure he can come close to how he ended the 2025 season where he was clearly the best over the final ten races and it nearly led to an improbable championship.
5. Andrea Kimi Antonelli will score at least 35 points between May and June
In 2025, Antonelli scores 22 points over the six races between May and June.
He was sixth in Miami and was seventh in the sprint race the day before. Eight points for sixth and two points for the sprint result.
He was third in Montreal for his first career podium finish. That is 12 points.
In the other four races, Antonelli had three retirements and he was 18th at Monaco.
I think things go better during spring 2026. There are only five races between those two months but Miami is still a sprint weekend, and Canada becomes a sprint weekend.
Antonelli would need to average a finish of 6.5 in the five Grand Prix to hit the 35-point total. I think he does it.
6. Lewis Hamilton will finish in the points in more sprint races but he will have fewer sprint race points than he had in 2025
In 2025, Hamilton scores 21 points in sprint races. Eight of those were thanks to his sprint race victory in China. He scored in four sprint races (China, Miami, Austin, Interlagos)
It is nuts to think Hamilton will do better than 21 points in 2026. Let’s just say he scores in all six sprint races, he would need to average around four points per sprint race. I don’t think he will have six top five finishes in sprint races. However, I could see Hamilton being in the top eight for five of six sprint races.
Maybe one or two are in the top five. That could be about ten points right there, but he could be eighth in two others and seventh in another. That would be a total of 14 sprint race points with five finishes in the points. It is plausible.
7. Cadillac will not have the most double retirements
New team. Unknowns across the board. I want to be optimistic and see Cadillac score points. I want it to have a few thrilling days with Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez each having their spots to shine. But it likely will not match Haas’ debut race when Romain Grosjean finished in the top six.
Cadillac has done all the right things to prepare for this season. It was doing simulated weekends toward the end of the 2025 season where the team went through the flow of a race weekend as if it was already competing. That will help but that doesn’t mean the team is going to come out like gangbusters. There will be plenty of things it can only learn from having a car on track.
But let’s be positive. I think Cadillac will avoid double retirements and not have the most in Formula One.
In 2025, there were only three instances of a team having a double retirement. The first was the team formerly known as Toro Rosso at Silverstone. Ferrari was responsible for the other two (Zandvoort and Interlagos).
This suggests the window is narrow. You cannot have more than one, but with the new regulations the overall likelihood increases. It could happen to Cadillac, but I think Cadillac will make sure it cars stay on track.
8. When breaking the schedule into thirds, Liam Lawson will outscore Arvid Lindblad in at least two of those thirds
Lawson ran two races for Red Bull to start the 2025 before being kicked down to the junior team. It was the best thing to happen to Lawson. He scored 38 points from there on.
Lindblad is the latest child Red Bull has rushed to Formula One. He was sixth in Formula Two and he did win three races (one feature and two sprints). He only turned 18 years old in August. We have more examples of these kids not being Max Verstappen than being Max Verstappen that it is far more likely Lindblad struggles, make mistakes and doesn’t score points regularly.
Lawson is battle-tested. There could be a period later in the season where Lindblad is on the same level and could be getting better finishes, but I don’t see that happening early. Lawson will need to be responsible for points early, and that could be the case for the entire season.
9. Alexander Albon will have a podium finish but finish behind Carlos Sainz, Jr. in the championship
Albon outscored Sainz, Jr. by nine points in 2025 (73 to 64). However, Sainz, Jr. had two podium finishes while Albon’s best finish was fifth.
Let’s see the reverse in 2026. Albon will get on the podium but Sainz, Jr. will score more points. It felt like Sainz, Jr. had the better season. Albon had the better start, but once Sainz, Jr. was familiar with the car, it swung. I think Sainz, Jr. will be stronger from the start in 2026. Albon will do well, but Sainz, Jr. will be carrying the Williams flag for majority of the season.
10. There will be an incident between Gabriel Bortoleto and Franco Colapinto
It is a World Cup year. We have a Brazilian and an Argentine on the grid. If there are any two drivers on the grid that could cause an international incident if they got together, these would be the two.
We could see two drivers fighting toward the back of the grid. Colapinto definitely needs results after he failed to score a point. Bortoleto did well as a rookie. Both will want more. Both will be pushing the limit. The two could get together. It would be notable.
11. At least one race will be won from outside a top ten starting position
It goes back to the new regulations. We are going to see teams figuring things out and teams will experience more technical gremlins. An untimely engine change could lead to a grid penalty. A front row start could turn to 12th, but a fast car is a fast car, and there are some circuits where a grid penalty is not insurmountable.
Max Verstappen won from 14th at Spa-Francorchamps with ease in 2022. We have seen it before. A team could have a setback but run the right strategy to overcome it. It could be Spa-Francorchamps. It could be Monza or Baku. It could be a rain race where it happens and grid penalties don’t even come into play.
Every race winner in 2025 started on one of the first two rows. We are due for something different, even if only for one race.
12. There will be one race where Oliver Bearman is the top finishing British driver
I thought Bearman was the best rookie in 2025, and he was putting Haas in a wonderful position. He was fourth in Mexico and sixth in Brazil. Bearman outscored teammate Esteban Ocon by three points. If there is a driver best positioned for a promotion to a top tier team in 2027, Bearman is the guy, and Ferrari could have two open spots.
This prediction is saying a lot because you have Lando Norris at McLaren, George Russell at Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari, and now there is Arvid Lindblad at Red Bull’s B-Team, and Bearman has to finish ahead of all those drivers.
Could there be a race where Oscar Piastri wins ahead of Max Verstappen and Bearman is a surprise in third, perhaps filling the role of Nico Hülkenberg at Silverstone? Yeah, that could happen.
What if there is a race where Norris retires, Ferrari is slower than Haas, Russell has an issue on track and is knocked down about five spots from where he should be running, Lindblad is just 17th best on the day, and Bearman is the best Brit in sixth? It doesn’t sound crazy.
Haas has never had a podium finish in 214 races. It went a decade without a podium finish! It is bound to happen. It feels like Bearman is meant to be the guy. If he does it, he could be the best finishing Brit on the day, a remarkable achievement in its own right considering the competition from his fellow countrymen.
And that is another set of predictions complete! We are more than halfway done with NASCAR and motorcycle racing already in the bag. We will finish up next week, as we slowly move toward 2026.
