Showing posts with label GTWC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GTWC. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

2024 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

Most championships are complete at this point. Sports car season is basically over, but it is about to start again and it has a few races left to run. The Gulf 12 Hours will take place in a few weeks, and the Asian Le Mans Series season begins in less than two weeks with a doubleheader in Sepang.

But we have to cut the season off somewhere and this year is basically complete when it comes to reviewing our 2024 predictions. We say basically because one pesky championship is not over yet. Either way, we know the answer to most of these and we know how these predictions have played out.

FIA World Endurance Championships
1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes
Correct!

This one was technically achieved in the first race of the season as Porsche went 1-2-3 with its factory cars in first and third and the Hertz Team Jota entry in second at Qatar. 

Porsche then put two more cars on the podium in the second race from Imola and went one-two with Hertz Team Jota winning at Spa-Francorchamps. It was shutout from the podium at Le Mans, but had both factory cars on the podium at Interlagos. Porsche won Fuji and was second in Bahrain.

Porsche ended with 11 combined podium finishes this season, more than double the next best manufacturer. Ferrari and Toyota each combined for five podium finishes. 

2. At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory
Correct!

This one was taken care of very quickly. We had eight first-time overall winners in the first four races. Each race had at least one driver pick up his first career victory.

We had Kévin Estre and Laurens Vanthoor in the opening race from Qatar.

The #7 Toyota won at Imola, a familiar winner in WEC competition, but it was the first overall victory for Nyck de Vries in only his second start in the top class.

In round three, we had Callum Ilott and Will Stevens win at Spa-Francorchamps. 

At Le Mans, Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina and Nicklas Nielsen won overall. 

Then we had Robert Kubica, Robert Shwartzman and Yi Yifei won at Austin. 

There were 11 first-time overall winners this season.

3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more
Wrong!

The #92 Manthey PureRxcing Porsche of Klaus Bachler, Alex Malykhin and Joel Sturm had six podium finishes this season. The #92 Porsche had four podium finishes in the first five races.

Two other entries had three podium finishes. The #91 Manthey EMA Porsche of Richard Lietz, Morris Schuring and Yasser Shahin had three and the #27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin of Ian James, Daniel Mancinelli and Alex Riberas also had three podium finishes.

4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company
Correct!

With Porsche winning the drivers' championship in both class, it is no surprise that Porsche did it twice.

The #6 Porsche and the #92 Manthey PureRxcing won the classes in the opening round in Qatar. Two races later, the #12 Hertz Team Jota Porsche and the #91 Manthey EMA Porsche split the classes at Spa-Francorchamps. 

Ferrari was the only manufacturer that won in each class this season, but not in the same race. Ferrari won twice overall, Le Mans and Austin. Ferrari also won twice in LMGT3, but it won the final two races at Fuji and Bahrain.

IMSA
5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship
Wrong!

We have already covered this partially, but this was crushing. 

García and the #3 Corvette sat fifth in the championship in the final race. It looked like a long shot for the #3 Corvette to get up to third. Then it significantly out-qualifies the #1 Paul Miller Racing BMW and the #14 VasserSuvillan Lexus at Petit Le Mans, the #14 Lexus retired from the race and the #3 Corvette finished ahead of the #1 BMW. 

It was enough to move García up to third and for the 13th consecutive year, García has finished first or third in the championship. This was the third consecutive year García has finished third in the championship. It is bound to end, but it just never seems to.

6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA
Correct!

This one was tight, but we had exactly three drivers win in each WEC and IMSA.

The first driver to achieve it did it in consecutive weekends. Nicklas Nielsen won the 24 Hours of Le Mans and then the following weekend won in LMP2 at Watkins Glen. 

Alex Riberas also won at Watkins Glen in the GTD Pro class, and then he won at LMGT3 in September at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. 

It was getting a little tight on the third winner, but then the #54 AF Corse Ferrari won the LMGT3 class at Fuji with Davide Rigon as one of its drivers. Rigon won the 24 Hours of Daytona in GTD Pro in January. 

It was tight, but it happened. 

7. The Riley Motorsport LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5
Correct!

The #74 Riley Motorsport Oreca ended up second in the LMP2 championship and it had four podium finishes in seven races, but a tenth-place finish at Road America tanked its average finish and it finished at 4.1428. If you remove Road America, the #74 Oreca had an average finish of 3.1667 in the other six races.

8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory
Wrong!

Not only was this one wrong, but there were only four instances of pole-sitters winning a race all season.

No pole-sitter won in either prototype class in the 2024 IMSA season. 

Three times did the pole-sitter in GTD Pro.

The #14 VasserSullivan did it at Sebring, the #3 Corvette did it at Mosport and the #1 Paul Miller Racing did it at Virginia International Raceway in GTD Pro.

The only GTD entry to win from pole position all season was the one race VasserSullivan entered a second Lexus at Long Beach when the #89 Lexus took the victory. 

This was not close, which is interesting at how much it appears qualifying doesn't matter in IMSA. The five endurance races are understandable, but the two-hour and 45-minute races should see the fastest car over one-lap be able to put together a full race. 

Let's keep an eye on this in 2025.

European Le Mans Series
9. The #22 United Autosports entry does not extends its winning streak
Correct!

Not only didn't the #22 United Autosports' entry not win a race, but no United Autosports' entry won in ELMS in 2024. United Autosports had one podium finish all season, third in the season opener at Barcelona, fittingly with the #22 entry.

This was the first season United Autosports did not win in LMP2 since 2016 when it only had entries in the LMP3 class.

10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers
Correct!

Only one Italian driver won the entire season in GT3. It was Andrea Caldarelli in the season finale driving the #63 Iron Lynx Lamborghini. 

Eleven different nationalities won a race in the GT3 class in 2024. The one with the most different winners was Denmark with four different winners. The #50 Formula Racing Ferrari of Conrad Laursen, Johnny Laursen and Nicklas Nielsen won the season opener in an all-Danish effort. Michelle Gatting won at Imola as well. 

Other
11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours
Well...

We don't know yet. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup was supposed to end last weekend, but the finale from Jeddah had been pushed back a week. We had already planned on doing these predictions prior to Thanksgiving. So we don't know yet, and it can go either way.

Technically, any of 12 entries could win the championship this weekend. Three entries are covered by three points and then fourth is 16 points back.

Three of the top four were top five finishers at the Spa 24 Hours. The #7 Comtoyou Racing Aston Martin of Mattia Drudi, Marco Sørensen and Nicki Thiim lead the championship on 54 points and the #7 Aston Martin won at Spa.

Three points back is the #51 AF Corse - Franchorchamps Motors Ferrari of Alessandro and Alessio Rovera, which was second at Spa. Also three points back is the #99 Tresor Attempto Racing Audi of Alex Aka, Ricardo Feller and Christopher Haase, which finished 12th overall at Spa. 

The #163 GRT Grasser Racing Team Lamborghini of Franck Perera, Jordan Pepper and Marco Mapelli is fourth, 16 points back, and it was fifth at Spa.

We will wait and see how this plays out. It is on the fence and can go either way. We will update on Monday.

12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races
Wrong! 

There were multiple stretches with five different manufacturers winning five consecutive races.

From race two to race six: Lamborghini, Audi, Porsche, Ferrari, BMW.

Race eight to race 12: Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG.

Race nine to race 13: Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini. 

Race 11 to race 15: Ferrari, Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, BMW, Audi.

There were four different instances where it happened, but never did six different manufacturers win in six consecutive races. I guess five is the limit.

Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, we are sitting at 7/11 with one to be determined. Being 8/12 is a lot better than being 7/12.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

2024 Sports Car Predictions

We continue our end-of-year predictions and move into the sports car realm. The thrilling period for sports car competition writes a new chapter in 2024. More manufacturers are coming. New races are coming. There will be new regulations in a few championships, new class structures. For all that was new in 2023, there was much that was the same as it ever was. However, with another year, things are bound to be shaken up eventually. There is a good chance it will be 2024.

FIA World Endurance Championships
1. A manufacturer not named Toyota nor Ferrari will have at least three podium finishes
The 2023 season might have seen the inclusion of the LMDh cars and the expansion of the Hypercar class, but it was rather one-sided.

Toyota took 11 of a possible 21 podium finishes. As a two-car team, it went 11 for 14. Ferrari took six podium finishes, Porsche had two, Cadillac and Peugeot each had one. 

Cadillac had a good start to the season before have a tough close. Porsche didn't quite show great speed, however it could have picked up another podium result last year with a few things going its way. 

With another year of development and who knows how the Balance of Performance will go, but we should see some more variety on the podium this season. Also, Porsche will have power in numbers. There will be five Porsches on the grid. BMW is joining the championship with a two-car effort, as is Alpine, and Lamborghini will have a car entered. 

Of course, all of these manufacturers could take podium finishes off each other and we could end up with four with two podium finishes apiece. 

2. At least four drivers get their first overall WEC victory
A bigger Hypercar class means many drivers who have not competed at the top level before and have not won overall before. 

One of the Ferraris didn't win last year, and, if that lineup does not change for 2024, none of Antonio Fuoco, Miguel Molina nor Nicklas Nielsen have won overall before. That could be three drivers right there. There will also be the third Ferrari that Robert Kubica will lead with Ye Yifei as a likely driver in that entry. Neither of those two have won overall before. 

We are missing the changes at Toyota with Nyck de Vries becoming a new driver in the #7 Toyota. De Vries does not have an overall victory. One victory for the #7 Toyota and the #50 Ferrari will fulfill this prediction. 

With all the Porsches in Hypercar, there are a slew of drivers that have never won overall in WEC. One Porsche victory can likely take care of 75% of this prediction. Maybe I should make it higher? You know what? That is what I will do...

At least SIX drivers get their first overall WEC victory

Take that!

3. No entry in LMGT3 will finish on the podium in four races or more
To be clear, this isn't manufacturer nor race team, this is specific cars, and with 18 cars from nine manufacturers, single-car dominance is tougher to imagine. 

In 2023, only one entry in GTE-AM had four podium finishes or more. That was the championship-winning #33 Corvette, which had five podium finishes. That was a class with 14 full-time cars with four manufacturers. 

There are plenty of capable entries in this class. Corvette remains in the class with TF Sport. Proton Competition is running two Ford Mustangs. AF Corse is still around with Ferrari. Team WRT is fielding a a pair of BMWs. Manthey Racing has two Porsches in its stable. Iron Lynx/Dames brings Lamborghini to the series, as does United Autosports with McLarens, Akkodis ASP Team is responsible for the Lexus entries and Aston Martin is split between Heart of Racing and D'station Racing.

They are all going to see some success at some point during the 2024 season. If one stands above the rest, it will clearly deserve the championship.

4. In at least two rounds will the overall winner and LMGT3 winner be manufacturers from the same parent company
With the new rules in WEC and GT3 entries getting priority based on Hypercar participation, six companies have entries in both classes. It is likely we will see one celebrating a double victory in WEC this season. 

We know Toyota can win. Lexus is the question mark, but Akkodis ASP Team has been highly successful in the GT World Challenge Europe series and Lexus smashed the competition in IMSA. Ferrari is Ferrari. No one would be surprised there. The same can be said with Porsche. 

On the flip side of Toyota, we know Corvette can win, but Cadillac is the question mark in Hypercar. 

BMW and Lamborghini are the other two who could do this. 

It will definitely happen once, but I will double down and say it will happen twice. 

IMSA
5. Antonio García does not finish first nor third in the GTD Pro championship
I am sure I have written about the before, but do you know García's championship positions since he joined Corvette Racing as a full-time driver in 2012?

Third
First
Third
Third
Third
First
First
Third
First
First
Third 
Third

García has not finished something other than first or third in a championship as a full-time driver since 2011 when he was seventh in the Daytona Prototype class in Grand-Am.

It has been a 12-year streak. Nothing lasts forever. It probably shouldn't have made it to 2024. García and Jordan Taylor entered the 2023 season finale at Petit Le Mans second in the GTD Pro championship only to have the duos worst finish of the season while WeatherTech Racing won to jump up to second. 

Corvette is going to be competitive, but that doesn't mean García will be first or third again. He will have Alexander Sims as his new co-driver after Jordan Taylor left for Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti’s Acura GTP program. 

6. At least three drivers will have class victories in each WEC and IMSA
This is a cross-series prediction because there will be substantial crossover between WEC and IMSA in 2024, as there always is, but for 2024 it feels like there will be even greater crossover. 

Who will be running both?

There will be over two dozen drivers set to run in WEC this year, who will be running at the 24 Hours of Daytona. This includes a number of drivers who will be running multiple times in both series, a few of which will attempt to run the full season in each. 

Between drivers running in both Hypercar and as endurance drivers in IMSA or drivers planning to run in GT categories in both series, there is bound to be a few drivers that see success in each championship. With the sheer number of drivers crossing over, three feels likely. 

How many drivers won in both series last year? 

Ben Keating
Nicolás Varrone

That's it. That's the list, and they just so happened to be co-drivers in WEC. Keating won in LMP2 in IMSA and Varrone was a member of the 2023 LMP3 winning entry at the 24 Hours of Daytona.

7. The Riley Motorsports LMP2 entry's average finish will be greater than 3.5
The LMP3-era of IMSA's top class should be remembered as the Riley era. Riley Motorsports won 12 of 21 races in the LMP3 class and stood on the podium 16 times in the class' three-year run. In 2023, Riley Motorsports had an average finish of 2.57, which was inflated with a ninth in the 24 Hours of Daytona, which technically didn't count toward the LMP3 championship. Count only the championship races and Riley's average was 1.5. 

Not bad, but not as good as its 1.57 average over the entire 2021 season and 1.667 over the six championship races. 

With LMP3 gone, Riley has moved to LMP2 and will field an Oreca for Gar Robinson and Felipe Fraga. It has been a good combination in LMP3 competition, but with a larger and deeper class in LMP2, I don't think Riley will repeat its dominance. It should still be competitive but not averaging better than a second-place finish. Averaging a podium finish will be a mighty task as well.

8. In one race, the pole-sitter from at least three classes will take victory
Last year, in the GTP class, the pole-sitter won three times (Daytona, Sebring and Mosport).

In LMP2, the pole-sitter won zero times.

In LMP3, the pole-sitter won twice (Watkins Glen and Mosport).

In GTD Pro, the pole-sitter won four times (Daytona, Long Beach, Lime Rock Park and Road America).

In GTD, the pole-sitter won twice (Road America and Virginia International Raceway). 

Last season, there were multiple class winners from pole position in three races, but never more than two class winners from pole position in a race. 

In case you are wondering when was the last time three classes had a pole-sitter win in the same race, it has not happened since the American Le Mans Series and Grand-Am merged in 2014.

European Le Mans Series
9. The #22 United Autosports entry does no extends its winning streak
United Autosports has been a regular winner in the European Le Mans Series, but more specifically, its #22 entry has been a regular winner. How regular? The #22 United Autosport entry has won a race overall in ELMS for six consecutive seasons. United Autosports has won a race in seven consecutive seasons. 

No other entry has a multi-year winning streak entering the 2024 season over than the #22 United Autosports entry.

However, United Autosports will have three entries in ELMS this year. The LMP2 class in ELMS will have 22 entries this season. Nothing lasts forever, and there is greater strength in this class than previous season. Ben Hanley will lead the #22 United entry alongside Marino Sato, who returns to ELMS for a second consecutive season. Filip Ugran moves over from Prema Racing. It could surely win a race, but it could conceivably not happen.

10. In GT3, there will not be a winning entry with multiple Italian drivers
For the last three consecutive seasons, there has been at least one winner in the GTE class that had multiple Italian drivers.

Last year, the all-Italian trio of Matteo Cressoni, Matteo Cairoli and Claudio Schiavoni won at Spa-Francorchamps with Iron Lynx. Iron Lynx also had an all-Italian winning lineup in 2022 with Cressoni, Schiavoni and Davide Rigon. Gianmaria Bruni and Lorenzo Ferrari also won that year at Barcelona with Proton Competition and Christian Ried. Half of the GTE races in 2021 had multiple Italian drivers in the winning team. 

There will be a few close calls, but it will not happen in 2024.

Other
11. The GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup champion finishes outside the top five in the Spa 24 Hours
GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup will have a five-race season in 2024. The second round will be the Spa 24 Hours. 

Spa-Francorchamps traditionally awards more points than any other GTWCEEC race, as points are awarded to the top nine at the quarter-mark and halfway point of the race. If you do well in the Spa 24 Hours, it will bode well for your championship. 

How well?

The GTWCEEC champion has been a top five finisher in the Spa 24 Hours in four consecutive seasons, the last three of which has seen the eventual champions finish on the Spa podium. 

The last time the champion was not in the top five at Spa-Francorchamps was 2019 when the #563 Orange1 FFF Racing Team Lamborghini ended up eighth. Orange1 FFF Racing Team won the Barcelona finale and had podium results in two other races. 

No trend lasts forever and we are due for a break.

12. Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will not have a stretch with five manufacturers winning five consecutive races
With the proliferation of GT3 cars across many different championship, we are seeing a greater number of manufacturer participation in some series that otherwise had few brands competing. DTM was one of those series and after long being just Audi and Mercedes-Benz, and then just Audi and BMW, with a brief moment of Aston Martin entered, it has flourished with GT3 regulations. 

Six manufacturers competed in DTM this year. All six won a race at some point, but there were three occasions where five manufacturers won in five consecutive races.

The season started with five different winning brands in five races: Lamborghini, Porsche, Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW.

From race three to race seven, there were five different winning manufacturers in five races: Mercedes-AMG, Audi, BMW, Porsche, Lamborghini. 

It then happened again from race 11 to race 15: Mercedes-AMG, Lamborghini, Audi, BMW, Porsche. 

With GT3 expanding to WEC and ELMS, it will change the composition of some of the existing GT3 series, DTM included. Honda will be in the series, but I don't think we will see the same makeup of winners, at least not as we saw it in DTM in 2023.

We are beyond the halfway point in predictions. NASCAR and Formula One are done. Two more to go, and next are predictions of the two-wheel variety.



Wednesday, November 22, 2023

2023 Sports Car Predictions: Revisited

The sports car seasons have just ended, but they will begin soon as the 2023-24 Asian Le Mans Series begins in ten days from Sepang. With the next season so close to starting, we must review what happened in 2023 and all the seasons that have since closed. It was an exciting year as the LMDh class made its debut in WEC and IMSA. It was also a sad season as the GTE class bid adieu in the world championship. How did these predictions turn out? Well...

World Endurance Championship
1. Toyota will not finish on the podium at Le Mans
Wrong!

This was always an ambitious prediction, hoping the new wave of Hypercar and LMDh cars would bring an abundance of competition and Toyota would have some rough days, including at Le Mans. Well, Toyota never had that much adversity. It did have the #7 Toyota retire from Le Mans due to an accident, but the #8 Toyota finished second and on the lead lap. It was the second best car in the race. 

Cadillac was third and fourth, but didn't really have the pace to beat Toyota. The only hope was a mechanical issue. That didn't happen and Toyota remained on the Le Mans podium for another year.

2. At least three different manufacturers win overall
Wrong!

This one did not quite happen, and was not that close. Toyota won six of seven races. Ferrari's Le Mans triumph will be remember, but no other manufacturer was close. Cadillac had respectable pace, but not race winning pace. Porsche was slower than Cadillac. Peugeot is behind despite the program have more track time than the other three mentioned. 

Either way, Toyota was the best. If anything, Ferrari maybe should have had one or two more victories, but that is it. Perhaps 2024 sees a little more variety on the top step of the podium. 

3. At least eight drivers with Formula One experience score a class victory
Wrong!

This was close, and fell disappointingly short. 

We got one in the first race of the season at Sebring with Kamui Kobayashi. 

We got halfway there in the second race at Portimão when Sébastien Buemi and Brandon Hartley won overall and Giedo van der Garde won in LMP2. Van der Garde only won because he was a substitute at United Autosport because Tom Blomqvist had IMSA responsibilities at Long Beach.That is four in two races. Good pace.

We hit five when Robert Kubica won in LMP2 at the third round at Spa-Francorchamps. 

Antonio Giovinazzi made it six with his victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. In four races, we hit six and needed two more in the final three races.

Pietro Fittipaldi made it seven in five races when he won at Monza in LMP2. 

However, we didn't get one more Formula One-experienced driver to win in the final two races. This despite having the likes of André Lotterer, Paul di Resta, Jean-Éric Vergne, Will Stevens, Stoffel Vandoorne, Jacques Villeneuve, Gianmaria Bruni and Daniil Kvyat competing at some point.

4. An overall winner will have a double-digit odd-number
Correct!

Hey! We got one! It was the #51 Ferrari of Antonio Giovinazzi, Alessandro Pier Guidi and James Calado winning at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. We went 50 races between double-digit odd-number winning car numbers in WEC, from Shanghai 2015 to Le Mans 2023. 

IMSA
5. At least one manufacturer in GTP does not win a race
Wrong!

If it wasn't for one post-race technical infraction at Watkins Glen, this prediction would have been correct, because if the #6 Porsche was above board then the #25 BMW would not have inherited the Watkins Glen victory, meaning BMW would not have won a race in 2023. 

To be fair, BMW was much more competitive than we expected, especially after the first race of the season. BMW already had two runner-up finishes prior to that Watkins Glen victory. 

6. No team in any of the classes has more than three runner-up finishes
Wrong!

It felt like there was no way this one would happen again. No way! Then Vasser Sullivan had one of the most consistent seasons in IMSA history and the #14 Lexus of Ben Barnicoat and Jack Hawksworth finished runner-up not once, not twice, not three times but five times as the #14 Lexus had nine podium finishes in 11 races.

7. There will be a winning driver in the Indianapolis race that has won at Indianapolis before
Correct!

And you would never guess who fulfilled this prediction! It wasn't a past Indianapolis 500 winner or a past United States Grand Prix winner. There were none in this race. It wasn't a past Brickyard 400 winner. Again, none in this race. There were a few past winners from first time Grand-Am/IMSA raced on the IMS road course, but none of those won.

So who was it? 

Daniel Juncadella, who won the 2022 Indianapolis 8 Hour! In 2023, Juncadella won with Jules Gounon in the #79 WeatherTech Racing Mercedes-AMG. Who would have thought of all the drivers, Juncadella would have been the one?

8. Italian manufacturers combine for at least four class victories
Wrong!

I am not even going to get technical and count the Dallara-built Cadillac V-Series.R in GTP because that was not in the spirit of this prediction. I was talking about Ferrari and Lamborghini, and they won once, with a surprise winner nonetheless. 

Who had the only Lamborghini victory as being the #78 Forte Racing Powered by US RaceTronics of Misha Goikhberg, Patrick Liddy and Loris Spinelli in GTD at Petit Le Mans? 

Risi Competizione was second at Watkins Glen in GTD Pro with the #62 Ferrari. That was the closest a Ferrari got to a victory in 2023. Lamborghini was second at Indianapolis in GTD with the same #78 Forte Racing entry.

European Le Mans Series
9. The GTE Class will have a repeat winner before LMP2 and LMP3
Wrong!

Not including the LMP2 Pro-Am subclass, the first repeat winner was the #17 Cool Racing Ligier-Nissan of Adrien Chila, Alex García and Marcos Siebert in LMP3, which was victories in the season opener at Barcelona and the third round at Aragón. 

GTE had two repeat winners, the #77 Proton Competition Porsche won the second round at Circuit Paul Ricard and the penultimate round at Portimão. The #16 Proton Competition Porsche won the bookends to the season at Barcelona and Portimão. 

10. There will be an Iberian winner in one of the Iberian races
Wrong!

Not only was this wrong and there were no Iberian winners in any of the FOUR Iberian races, one more than originally scheduled after the Imola round was lost due to pit and paddock renovations and Portimão was made a doubleheader, but there wasn't even a Spaniard that competed in ELMS this year. 

There were a few Portuguese drivers. Miguel Cristóvão was runner-up at the season opener in Barcelona. That is as close as we got.

Miscellaneous
11. The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters champion will be a non-German from continental Europe
Correct!

It was Austria's Thomas Preining! The first non-German champion from continental Europe since Mattias Ekström in 2007. The good news is if Preining fell short, there were a few other drivers on the doorstep to fulfill this prediction. Italian Mirko Bortolotti was second and Swiss Ricardo Feller was third. The top German driver was René Rast in fifth.

12. No Belgian will in the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship
Correct!

Speaking of Feller, Ricardo Feller was the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup co-champion along with Sammarinese Mattia Drudi. The #40 Tresor Orange1 Audi won four of ten races and finished on the podium seven times. In second was the #88 AKKodis ASP Team Mercedes-AMG of Swiss-Italian Raffaele Marciello and Russian-bor Timur Boguslavskiy, 19 points behind Feller and Drudi. The all-Belgian duo and 2022 champions of Dries Vanthoor and Charles Weerts were third in the #32 Team WRT BMW, 23 points back. 

Not great. Four out of 12. If I was a baseball player, .333 is a great season, but this isn't baseball and one out of three is quite bad.


Tuesday, December 27, 2022

2023 Sports Car Predictions

Sports car racing is about to enter one of its most anticipated periods. In 2023, convergence will be here. The LMDh class will commence competition and an abundance of manufacturers will be eligible for overall victory at Le Mans. It has been decades since the two major 24-hour races could have the same machinery claim overall victory. In 2023, that will be possible and the 24 Hours of Daytona will be a historic pivot point. 

But there will be races beyond Daytona and Le Mans, and this is a set of predictions spanning the sports car world.

World Endurance Championship
1. Toyota will not finish on the podium at Le Mans
Toyota has won the 24 Hours of Le Mans five consecutive times. It is the fifth time a manufacture has won the 24 Hours of Le Mans five times on the spin. 

But that changes in 2023 and it changes in a big way. Toyota may have a head start in the Hypercar world, but it hasn't faced any stiff competition in half a decade. In 2023, who shows up? Peugeot will be back after it started halfway through the 2022 FIA World Endurance Championship season. Porsche will have two cars that Team Penske will operate. Ferrari is back, and there will be a Cadillac as well. 

You would think Toyota should at least put a car in the top three, but that is not going to happen this year. It will be an eye-opener for Toyota. It will have to push harder than it has to since 2017. I think it gets pushed over the limit and another manufacturer or two enter in strong form.

2. At least three different manufacturers win overall
There will be six manufacturers in Hypercar in 2023. Toyota isn't going to win all the races. Peugeot was making strides at the end of 2022, but it didn't quite have full race pace yet. Porsche will pull out at least one or two victories. Ferrari could be good enough. Cadillac has been strong in IMSA prior to the LMDh car. Glickenhaus still exists and it won two pole positions last season, but couldn't take the fight to Toyota for victories.

With the influx of new manufacturers, some of these teams will win. I doubt it is all of them, but three, half in a seven-race season, that makes sense. 

3. At least eight drivers with Formula One experience score a class victory
In 2022, six drivers with Formula One experience scored a class victory in WEC. 

Paul di Resta was the first to do in LMP2 at Le Mans. Kamui Kobayashi, Sébastien Buemi and Brendon Hartley all scored overall victories. Will Stevens was a winner in LMP2. Do you remember that Gianmaria Bruni drove for Minardi in the 2004 Formula One season? Bruni did, and he won in WEC last year in the GTE Pro class.

With more manufacturers in Hypercar, plenty of talented drivers filling professional seats in LMP2, and who knows what GTE will look like in its final season, but WEC is full of Formula One experienced drivers. Kobayashi, Buemi and Hartley could all win again, they should win again. André Lotterer is back in WEC's top class driving for Porsche, and Lotterer has the 2014 Belgian Grand Prix on his résumé. Di Resta drives for Peugeot and Jean-Éric Vergne also drives for that program. 

That is six drivers that could win, but Stevens will drive a Porsche for Jota. We still do not know the Ferrari drivers plus LMP2 seats still need to be filled. We know Giedo van der Garde will start at least two races for United Autosports when Tom Blomqvist has IMSA responsibilities. 

There are plenty of Formula One drivers around, they are good drivers. At least eight will be WEC winners.

4. An overall winner will have a double-digit odd-number
This is oddly specific, but one thing I noticed when Alpine won at Sebring last March was it was the first time a double-digit car won overall in a WEC race since the 2015 season finale at Bahrain when the #18 Porsche won. That was over six years, 40 races since a double-digit car won overall.

We had a double-digit car win, but it was an even-numbered car. We had another six races without an double-digit odd-number winner. Who was the most recent double-digit odd-number winner? It was the #17 Porsche the race prior to the #18 Porsche at Shanghai. 

There have been 47 races without a double-digit odd-number overall winner. At the moment, the only double-digit odd-number Hypercars we know will be the #51 Ferrari and the #93 Peugeot. That is it. We are putting money on one of those two winning overall. 

IMSA
5. At least one manufacturer in GTP does not win a race
We will see four manufacturers in GTP this season. Acura and Cadillac will have Porsche and BMW join the top class in 2023. There is a lot of excitement, but this isn't a perfect world. One of these manufacturers must be last. It is likely one manufacturer will be last more than others. 

It is a nine-round championship for GTP. All four could win, but I think one doesn't. Acura and BMW haven't completed 24-hour tests yet. Porsche and Cadillac appear to be the most prepared for the season. We are going to have eight full-time entries with another two customer Porsches joining some time during the season. Porsche is going to have 40% of the class at some point. The numbers are in its favor. If Porsche hits it could be a beat down. If it is a beat down, someone is going to lose out significantly.

6. No team in any of the classes has more than three runner-up finishes
Meyer Shank Racing won the Daytona Prototype international championship last year with five runner-up finishes. The #30 JR III Motorsports Ligier-Nissan in LMP3 had three runner-up finishes. The #27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin won the GT Daytona championship with three runner-up finishes along with two victories.

It happened in three different classes. I don't think it happens once next year. There will be teams with two runner-up finishes. There will be teams that win multiple races, but nobody will have more than three runner-up finishes in any of the five classes.

7. There will be a winning driver in the Indianapolis race that has won at Indianapolis before
Mixed class sports car racing is returning to Indianapolis Motor Speedway this year for the first time since 2014. It is an anticipated race weekend and it will be a great weekend for a bunch of drivers who have never got to run at the historic track. 

In the first round of Grand-Am/IMSA races at IMS, experienced was beneficial, even if it wasn't on the road course. Sébastien Bourdais won the inaugural Grand-Am race at Indianapolis in 2012 and he had a pair of Indianapolis 500 starts at the time. Max Papis won in GT in 2013. Christian Fittipaldi, 1995 Indianapolis 500 runner-up, won in 2014 while Jack Hawksworth won in Prototype Challenge after having led 31 laps and finishing seventh in the inaugural IndyCar Grand Prix of Indianapolis earlier that year. 

All of those drivers had experience at Indianapolis, but none of them had won at Indianapolis prior to that. That will change. Somebody who has won at Indianapolis before will win again. I am not talking about an Indianapolis 500 winner. It could be anyone. 

It could be Bourdais or Hawksworth winning again. It could be João Barbosa, who won in 2014 with Fittipaldi and who now competes in LMP3, winning again. It could be IMS Indy Lights winner Ed Jones, who will run in LMP2 with High Class Racing. It could be Sebastian Priaulx, who will be full-time in GTD in the AO Racing Team in 2023, and who won at Indianapolis in Porsche Carrera Cup North America in 2021. It could be Juan Pablo Montoya and whatever LMP2 program he jumps into this year. Who knows? There could be a surprise entrant. Someone will get another Indianapolis victory in 2023.

8. Italian manufacturers combine for at least four class victories
Last year, the only Italian victory was the Cetilar Racing Ferrari in GTD at Daytona. Italian makes will at least quadruple that output. 

Iron Lynx will field a Lamborghini full-time in GTD Pro with Mirko Bortolotti and Andrea Caldarelli, a driver who has spanked the GT World Challenge America series in recent years. Iron Lynx will also field a Lamborghini in GTD as well as Iron Dames. NTE Sport and US RaceTronics also have Lamborghinis entered for Daytona.

AF Corse, Triarsi Competizione and Cetilar Racing will all enter Ferraris at Daytona.

Not all of these cars will be full-time. Some will only be endurance race entrants. Four is a hefty increase of victories. I think it will be possible.

European Le Mans Series
9. The GTE Class will have a repeat winner before LMP2 and LMP3
There were no repeat winners in GTE last year in ELMS. Meanwhile, Prema Racing won the first two races in LMP2 and Inter Europol Competition won twice in the first four races in LMP3. In 2021, Team WRT won the first two LMP2 races and Cool Racing won the first two LMP3 races while the first repeat GTE winner didn't come until the third race of the season when the #80 Iron Lynx Ferrari won for the second time. 

LMP2 and LMP3 had repeat winners before GTE in 2020 as well. GTE hasn't had the first repeat winner in an ELMS season since 2014, the year prior to the introduction of the LMP3 class. It is bound to happen again. It will happen in 2023.

10. There will be an Iberian winner in one of the Iberian races
Half of the 2023 ELMS season will be on the Iberian peninsula with Barcelona opening the season before the series' first trip to Aragón in August and Portimão closing the season. Guilherme Oliveira was the only Iberian winner in 2022, but with two races in Spain, perhaps we will see a Spaniard or two compete in ELMS this year. With an increase of Iberian races I think we will see an increase of Iberian drivers. If that is a case, one will pull off a victory in their backyard. 

Miscellaneous
11. The Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters champion will be a non-German from continental Europe
The DTM has not had a continental European champion from a country other than Germany since Mattias Ekström won his second championship in 2007. Where have the champions come from since the Swede Ekström won the title?

Germany, Germany, Great Britain, Germany, Canada, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Germany, Great Britain, Germany, Germany, Germany, South Africa. 

Sheldon van der Linde became the second non-European champion in series history in 2022. 

DTM is a German series by definition, but it has been more of a European championship with a German base since it was revived in 2000. Plenty of talented European drivers have com through the series, but none have taken the title. With GT3-specs for the series, it brings a different mix to the series.

Lucas Auer was only 12 points away from become the first continental European champion not from Germany this past season. Mirko Bortolotti was fourth in the championship with Thomas Preining in fifth, Nico Müller in seventh and Dennis Olsen in tenth. There were more non-German European drivers in the top ten of the championship than German drivers. There are fewer German drivers in the series. Only eight of 26 regulars in 2022 were from Germany. That is less than a third of the grid. 

The 2023 grid hasn't really been in focus since DTM's future was only settled a few weeks ago when ADAC took over the series. The 2023 season opener isn't until the end of May anyway. We will see non-German Europeans in the series. One of them will be champion. 

12. No Belgian will in the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship
Dries Vanthoor and Charles Werts has won the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship in three consecutive seasons. A Belgian driver has won the overall champion in this series in five of ten seasons. 

Nothing lasts forever. There is a big change as the likes of Vanthoor and Weerts will now drive BMWs after Team WRT switched to the manufacturer from Audi. I don't necessarily Audi is the deciding factor, but we are bound to see something different. That will be no Belgians taking the overall title in 2023.

Three down, two to go. Check out the NASCAR and Formula One predictions. Two-wheel action is next.

Monday, December 19, 2022

2022 For the Love of Indy Awards

It felt like a normal year. After two disrupted years due to the pandemic with a countless number of races behind closed doors, events falling on and off calendars and replacements being organized on a whim, 2022 felt like normal. World championships visited every corner of the globe. Fewer places were off limits. Long celebrated tracks returned to competition. Travel was freer and more drivers competed around the globe. 

With another year completed, it is time to recognize the best of the season. Records were broken. Races went to the wire. Contract negotiations took over discussions over the summer, as did budgetary spending. There was heartbreak and jubilation. Surprises arose. New names appeared on top and some of the regulars continued to dominant. Here we will look at the best of the year.

Racer of the Year
Description: Given to the best racer over the course of 2022.
And the Nominees are:
Shane van Gisbergen
Max Verstappen
Kalle Rovanperä
Eli Tomac
Dries Vanthoor

And the winner is... Max Verstappen
After controversially winning the World Drivers' Championship in 2021, Verstappen left no doubt of who was the best driver in the world in 2022.

It was far from a cakewalk though. At least, it didn't start that way. Verstappen retired from two of the first three races. He was sixth in the championship, 46 points behind Charles Leclerc with 19 races remaining, plenty of time to comeback, but a larger hole than anyone would like to find themselves in.

Verstappen responded with three consecutive victories and took the championship lead, one he would not relinquish. First-place in Azerbaijan made it four victories in five, another in Canada made it five in six. Meanwhile, Ferrari continued to stumble. The Scuderia bounced back at the start of summer, but Verstappen proved to be more than up to the task. A five-race winning streak spanning the summer break made the championship effectively his as Formula One made its way to the Pacific rim.

The title was clinched with four races remaining. He ended the season with a record 15 victories, 17 podium finishes, tied for the second most in a single season, 454 points, the most in a single season, and Verstappen ended the year on 35 career victories, good enough for sixth all-time and he is still only 25 years old.

Even when his back was against the wall, Verstappen came out on top. He won three times from starting positions outside the top five, including a drive from tenth to first in Hungary and 14th to first at Spa-Francorchamps. At Spa, it only took him 12 laps to take the lead. In the United States, he overcame a botched pit stop to drive down Lewis Hamilton in the closing laps. The championship was already decided but he still went ten-tenths to pull out a victory.

Far from the most beloved driver on the grid, and far from the best teammate, Verstappen's ability must be acknowledged as one of the best in competition anywhere in the world.

On the other nominees:
Van Gisbergen had another sensational year across multiple different series in the Antipodes. Not only did he win his third Supercars championship, and second consecutive, but he won a record 21 races. In GT World Challenge Australia, he won twice and he made his World Rally Championship debut, finishing ninth overall in Rally New Zealand, scoring him two points and he was the third best WRC-2 entry. 

Rovanperä became the youngest World Rally champion this season but the Finn did it in style, six victories, eight podium finishes and ten top five finishes. He became the champion a day after his 22nd birthday and broke the record for youngest WRC champion by over five years. Victories came on three different continents. He won on the snow in Sweden and in the Great Rift Valley of Kenya. 

Switching to Yamaha, Tomac had a sensational first season with the manufacturer. It started with a thorough Supercross championship where he won seven races. In Motocross, Tomac scored his fourth championship in a tough fight with Chase Sexton that saw Tomac win 14 of 28 races and come from behind to take the title in the final weekend of the season. To cap the season off, Tomac teamed with Sexton and Justin Cooper to represent the United States at the Motocross des Nations and a victory aided the United States to win the event for the first time since 2011.

Vanthoor and Charles Weerts won the GT World Challenge Europe Sprint Cup championship for the third consecutive season, this year winning five of ten races, but Vanthoor also won his first LMP2 race competing for Team WRT at the 6 Hours of Fuji and he won the 3 Hours of Imola. 

Past Winners
2012: Kyle Larson
2013: Marc Márquez
2014: Marc Márquez
2015: Nick Tandy
2016: Shane van Gisbergen
2017: Brendon Hartley
2018: Scott Dixon
2019: Marc Márquez
2020: Lewis Hamilton
2021: Kyle Larson

Race of the Year
Description: Best Race of 2022.
And the Nominees are:
Rallye Monte-Carlo
Super Formula Round Three at Suzuka
British Grand Prix
Mazda MX-5 Cup Race Two at Watkins Glen
Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix

And the winner is... British Grand Prix
This was the toughest category this year, but this year's British Grand Prix was one for the ages.

Of course, it began with an accident, George Russell clipped Pierre Gasly and Guanyu Zhou, sending Zhou flipping and sliding into the barrier on the outside of turn one. Alexander Albon and Sebastian Vettel were also collected. Yuki Tsunoda and Esteban Ocon also had some damage.

After nearly an hour under red flag conditions, the race resumed and Carlos Sainz, Jr. retook the lead after Max Verstappen went to first on the initial start. On lap 10, Verstappen was back in the lead but soon suffered a tire puncture and dropped down the order.

With a variety of pit strategies, Charles Leclerc took the lead during the middle stages, as did Lewis Hamilton. When Ocon stopped on circuit drawing a safety car, Leclerc stayed out in the lead while the rest of the field made pit stops. Sainz soon retook the lead while Leclerc, Sergio Pérez and Hamilton battled for second place.

While those three tussled, Sainz drove away and went on to score his first career grand prix victory in his 151st start. Pérez ended up second with Hamilton rounding out the podium while Leclerc finished fourth. Nine lead changes occurred over the 52 laps.

On the other nominees:
The 2022 World Rally Championship season opener was a head-to-head match for the ages. Sébastien Ogier was back after winning his eighth WRC championship in 2021, but 2022 would be a part-time season. Also in Rallye Monte-Carlo was Sébastien Loeb with the nine-time WRC champion making his first appearance in the series since 2020. Ogier held the lead through the first four stages, but Loeb won four consecutive stages to take the overall lead. Ogier fought back and the two drivers were tied on aggregate time through ten stages. Ogier retook the lead in stage 11 and he held a 24.6 second lead entering the penultimate stage 16. Loeb won stage 16 while Ogier ended up eighth, 34.1 seconds back, handing the lead to Loeb by 9.5 seconds with one stage to play. A smart final drive saw Loeb hold on to win Rallye Monte-Carlo for a record-tying eighth time and it was Loeb's 80 WRC victory, his first since 2018.

Suzuka was wet for the first race of the Super Formula season. With no pit stop requirements due to the conditions, it was a pure sprint race. Tomoki Nojiri was in control for most of the race but he had Tadasuke Makino and Nobuharu Matsushita both climbing up the order. Matsushita started ninth, but in the difficult conditions but on one of the best drives of his career. An incredible move on Makino got him second. In two laps, Matsushita erased a four-second gap to Noriji and made a move on the outside of turn one to take the lead. It stuck and Matsushita went on to earn his first career Super Formula victory.

Every Mazda MX-5 Cup race is spectacular, but the series had quite a weekend at Watkins Glen. The second race of the weekend was a furious battle from start to finish. Aidan Fassnacht started 29th, dead last in the field and drove to the front in short order. He entered the top three in less than 17 minutes. He was leading at the end of lap 13, with under 18 minutes remaining in the race. However, Fassnacht fell to fourth on the penultimate lap. Bruno Carneiro held the lead as the white flag was shown at the start of the final lap. Fassnacht was back up to second and in Carneiro's slipstream. Entering the chicane, Fassnacht took the lead in the chicane. With still a half lap remaining, Fassnacht drove defensively and held off Carneiro by 0.075 seconds while a half-second covered the top four finishes. 

After a three-year hiatus, MotoGP returned to Phillip Island, and what a return it was. In a thrilling race, any of a dozen riders had a shot at the victory. Jorge Martín held the point for the first half of the race, but was quickly dispatched down the order. Álex Rins and Francesco Bagnaia went toe-to-toe while Marc Márquez found himself in the picture. Marco Bezzechi was smelling his first MotoGP victory, as was Luca Marini. On the final lap, Rins and Márquez overtook Bagnaia into the southern loop. Rins and Márquez were each shooting for their first victory of the salons while Bagnaia looked to take a stranglehold on the championship after Fabio Quartararo's accident early in the race. Rins had Márquez on his heels but Rins took the victory while Márquez's consolation prize was his 100th MotoGP podium and Bagania was third. The top seven were covered by 0.884 seconds.

Past Winners
2012: Indianapolis 500
2013: British motorcycle Grand Prix
2014: Bathurst 1000
2015: Australian motorcycle Grand Prix
2016: Spanish Grand Prix
2017: All the races at the World Superbike/World Supersport weekend at Phillip Island
2018: Petit Le Mans
2019: Honda 200 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
2020: Turkish Grand Prix
2021: Monaco ePrix

Achievement of the Year
Description: Best success by a driver, team, manufacture, etc.
And the Nominees are:
Will Power becoming the all-time leader in IndyCar pole positions
Team Penske winning the IndyCar championship and the NASCAR Cup championship in the same season
Max Verstappen achieving the most grand prix victories in a single season
NASCAR Cup Series equaling the record for most different winners in a season
Shane van Gisbergen achieving the most Supercars victories in a single season

And the winner is... Max Verstappen achieving the most grand prix victories in a single season
Formula One is the highest level of motorsports in the world. Anytime a driver does the most of anything in the series it deserves recognition. When it is doing the most important thing in motorsports and winning races, it is monumental.

Verstappen and Red Bull were the class of the field even when it wasn't the best team for the first portion of the season. After letting a pair of victories slip through their grasp early on, the team did not make many mistakes for the remainder of the season. The Dutchman went on a tear and took advantage when the competition slipped.

The record was 13 victories, and it wasn't until after the summer break we could take the pursuit seriously. Verstappen had won eight of the first 13 races, on pace for 13.5 victories over 22 races. Of course, a half victory is not possible, but he was on track to at least match the record.

Back from break, Verstappen won three consecutive races to close out the European portion of the calendar and was firmly on track to break the record, needing only three victories in the final six events. Singapore didn't go in his favor, but he won in Japan and clinched the world title. He came from behind to win the United States Grand Prix after a pit stop snafu to equal the record. Then he utterly dominated in Mexico to break the record. He added one more for good measure in Abu Dhabi and set the bar at 15 victories.

Through all the seasons of Mercedes dominance, Lewis Hamilton never got to 13. Neither did Nico Rosberg. Verstappen and Red Bull set its stamp on the 2022 season and it could last for many years to come.

On the other nominees:
Power was always bound to break Mario Andretti's record of 67 pole positions, but until it happens, it only remains a possibility. After a down 2021 season, it looked like it would be a longer wait for Power to achieve 68 IndyCar pole positions, and 2022 didn't start in hot fashion either. But Power caught a heater and when he needed a pole position most at the Laguna Seca season finale while leading the championship, he pulled out #68 and now stands alone looking down at everyone. 

Winning an IndyCar championship is difficult. Winning a NASCAR Cup championship is also difficult. Winning both in the same season as an organization? Team Penske is the only one shooting at such a possibility, but it is not easy to win either series. Team Penske does win in both quite regularly, but championships? Those are harder to earn. This year, Penske pulled both out with Will Power on top in IndyCar and Joey Logano on top in NASCAR, a true testament to a team's capabilities at two high level championships. 

In the inaugural season of a new car, the NASCAR Cup Series was in a nervy position. Part shortages and unknowns clouded the start of the season. No one was sure how the car would race. There were many stunning events, but also a few snoozers and safety concerns overshadowed parts of the season, but what cannot be missed is 19 drivers won a Cup race this season, equaling the Cup Series record but it is the most in NASCAR's Modern era. Ten different teams won a Cup race. Non-playoff drivers swept the first round. Two organizations got their first Cup victories. Race winners claimed 15 of 16 playoff spots. It felt like everyone became a contender in 2022.

Van Gisbergen might be the best driver competing in Australia, but Supercars isn't a pushover series. There are plenty of difficult guys competing. Van Gisbergen has accomplished quite a bit, but most victories in a season is a mighty task to achieve. For any driver to get it, he had to win 19 races. Van Gisbergen won 21 for good measure. He swept four weekends and won the Bathurst 1000 in the process. He took the championship by over 600 points. 

Past Winners
2012: DeltaWing
2013: Sebastian Vettel for winning nine consecutive races on his way to a fourth consecutive title
2014: Marc Márquez: Setting the record for most wins in a premier class season.
2015: Justin Wilson Memorial Family Auction
2016: Jimmie Johnson for his seventh NASCAR Cup championship
2017: Jonathan Rea: For becoming the first rider to win three consecutive World Superbike championships.
2018: Robert Wickens for winning IndyCar Rookie of the Year despite missing the final three races.
2019: Joe Gibbs Racing setting single-season record for most Cup victories by a in NASCAR's modern-era.
2020: Donald Davidson for 55 years of service to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Indianapolis 500
2021: Team WRT's championship success across multiple series and disciplines

Moment of the Year
Description: The Most Memorable Moment in the World of Racing during the 2022 season.
And the Nominees are:
July 12
Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville 
Red Bull's Cost Cap Penalty
Bubba Wallace-Kyle Larson Incident
Scott Dixon speeding at the Indianapolis 500

And the winner is... Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville
The penultimate race of the NASCAR Cup season is a pivotal moment of the season, and in 2022, three spots remained in the Championship Four.

In the closing laps, every position became more critical as seven drivers were fighting for those final eight spots. With how close the drivers were in the standings, there was little margin for error and one mistake would prove to be costly.

The closing laps set up Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell battling and both drivers in a must-win situation to advance. Neither could make it on points. Chase Elliott was sitting in a comfortable position for one of the points spots, but the final spot was down to Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain.

As the final 24 laps played out, Chastain started drifting backward as Hamlin moved forward. Bell took the lead from Briscoe. The final four appeared set.

At the start of the final lap, Bell led while Elliott was seven points clear and Hamlin was two points ahead of Chastain. Hamlin ran fifth while Chastain was tenth but over a second behind the car in front of him. Entering the final corner, the picture appeared set.

However, Chastain had other plans and stabbed the throttle to the floor while turning into the wall. Using momentum, Chastain ran nearly 60 mph faster than the cars in front of him and came out of turn four fifth on the road, ahead of Hamlin and with more than enough points to elevate him into the championship four while eliminating Hamlin in the process.

A pure video game move that bordered on psychotic in real life, Chastian's move became a global phenomenon in the motorsports world. Drivers from all categories were sharing it and it became something that transcended the motorsports bubble.

It had everyone's attention because nobody ever thought anyone would have the audacity to try it.

On the other nominees:
July 12 started out as any old blistering hot afternoon in the United States. It was a Tuesday. Not much should happen. Then Tyler Reddick announced he signed for 23XI Racing for the 2024 season, not long after he confirmed he would drive for Richard Childress Racing in 2023. This caught everyone by surprise, including RCR. That same day, Chip Ganassi Racing announced it was exercising its option on Álex Palou for the 2023 season, a sensible decision considering the Spaniard won the 2021 IndyCar championship and appeared set to be one of the best of the 2020s. However, that evening, while Trackside with Curt Cavin and Kevin Lee broadcasted over the airwaves, Palou tweeted he did not accept Ganassi's decision and had plans to join McLaren for 2023 with Formula One ambitions. And so kicked off a contractual dispute that lasted the rest of the IndyCar season.

With Formula One introducing a cost cap for the 2021 season, the teams were going to be faced with tougher decisions than years prior. Teams couldn't spend like they once did on car development and once they maxed out, they would be in trouble. When the FIA looked into the budgets for the 2021 season, it was found Red Bull would be over the limit, causing many to call for hard sanctions on the organization. While less than 5% over the cap, many wanted a strict penalty. What was decided? A $7 million fine and 10% reduction in wind tunnel testing. We will find out how that affects the 2023 season, but this breach had everyone on the edge of their seats wondering how hard the book would be thrown at Formula One's most polarizing team. 

There is plenty of contact at NASCAR races that most incidents are forgotten quite quickly. At Las Vegas this September, one incident had everyone speechless. After Kyle Larson bumped Bubba Wallace into the wall exiting turn four early in the race, Wallace turned down and spun Larson head-on into the outside wall and collected Christopher Bell in the process. Wallace and Larson were both out of the race. Out of their cars, Wallace approached Larson and shoved him. In the aftermath, Wallace was suspended for one race, but further questions were raised about where the limit is in NASCAR Cup competition. 

It looked to be in Scott Dixon's control. The New Zealander had led 95 of the first 175 laps and was entering the pit lane for his final stop. One clean stop and the Indianapolis 500 would seem to be his. Patricio O'Ward and Felix Rosenqvist had pushed Dixon all day but it didn't look like either was going to top him. However, Dixon locked up his tires entering the pit lane, and by the finest of margins, Dixon was over the pit lane speed limit on entry. A drive-through penalty was issued and Dixon went from having a hand on the BorgWarner Trophy to outside the top twenty in a soul-crushing end to what was otherwise a phenomenal race. 

Past Winners
2012: Alex Zanardi
2013: 24 Hours of Le Mans
2014: Post-race at the Charlotte and Texas Chase races.
2015: Matt Kenseth vs. Joey Logano
2016: Toyota Slows at Le Mans
2017: Fernando Alonso announcing his Indianapolis 500 ride
2018: Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson battle at Chicagoland
2019: Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing knocking out Fernando Alonso and McLaren and Penske Purchasing Hulman & Co.
2020: March 12-13
2021: The entire Formula One season

Pass of the Year
Description: Best pass of 2022.
And the Nominees are:
Colton Herta on Louis Delétraz into the chicane at the 24 Hours of Daytona
Colton Herta on Patricio O'Ward in turn nine at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis
Will Stevens on in the final corner of the European Le Mans Series race at Spa-Francorchamps
Nobuharu Matsushita on Tomoki Noriji in turn one at Suzuka
Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville

And the winner is... Ross Chastain's final corner at Martinsville
This one was obvious. Chastain went from tenth to fifth. The world was captivated by it. It is a move we may never see again strictly because how could it happen again? In the immediate aftermath, questions were raised if such a move should be allowed because it pushes the limit of what is acceptable danger and pushes what should be considered acceptable racing.

Chastain broke the Martinsville track record on that lap simply driving into the wall. He was four seconds faster than the rest of the field. It opened Pandora's box, the equivalent of dropping the atomic bomb. It should never happen again. Whether such a move is legislated out of competition remains to be seen but the fact it is a possibility speaks to how transcendent it was.

On the other nominees:
The LMP2 class at the 24 Hours of Daytona proved to be competitive from start to finish and in the closing hour the #8 Tower Motorsport Oreca held the lead with Delétraz at the wheel. But Herta was clawing back time in the #81 DragonSpeed Oreca and late in the race, Herta threw his car up the inside entering the chicane. Delétraz attempted to turn in as well but took evasive action and went off the road. Herta took the lead and went on to take the victory.

It isn't so much the pass Herta made but what happened prior to it. On slick tires but in damp conditions, Herta was hounding Patricio O'Ward as O'Ward had just made the switch to slicks. Herta had more heat and if he passed O'Ward he would be the de facto leader as a dozen more cars were still on wet tires. Entering turn eight, Herta was on O'Ward heels, but the backend stepped out on Herta's car. The car drifted through the corner and he caught it in turn nine. Meanwhile, he stuck the throttle down and was able to slide up the inside of O'Ward in turn ten. What started out looking like calamity ended with a powerful pass that would see Herta take the end and ultimately wind up with victory.

Spa-Francorchamps is known for many of its corners, and the high speeds through Blanchimont make the final chicane a prime passing zone before the start/finish line. In the Pro/Am battle for the LMP2 class, Alessio Rovera held the lead on the final lap but Will Stevens was in Rovera's tracks for the entirety of the final lap. As the cars approached the final chicane, GT traffic also played a part. Stevens couldn't make a move on the inside entering the chicane, but he ran a little wide and diamond the corner on exit, taking the inside and that extra power allowed him to nip Rovera at the line by 0.042 seconds.

The outside in turn one at Suzuka is tricky enough in the dry, but in the wet, it is almost unfathomable. But in the closing laps of the April Super Formula race from Suzuka, Nobuharu Matsushita had already chased down Tomoki Nojiri, overcoming a four-second gap in two laps. With the moment presenting itself, Matsushita went for it on the outside of turn one and the pass stuck. He ran off into the distance and in turn earned himself his first career Super Formula victory.

Past Winners
2012: Simon Pagenaud at Baltimore
2013: Robert Wickens at Nürburgring and Peter Dempsey in the Freedom 100
2014: Ryan Blaney on Germán Quiroga
2015: Laurens Vanthoor from 4th to 2nd on the outside in the Bathurst 12 Hour
2016: Scott McLaughlin on Mark Winterbottom at Surfers Paradise
2017: Renger van der Zande: From second to first on Dane Cameron at Laguna Seca
2018: Alexander Rossi for all his passes in the Indianapolis 500
2019: Álex Rins on Marc Márquez in the final corner at Silverstone in the British motorcycle Grand Prix
2020: Pipo Derani on Ricky Taylor into turn one at Road Atlanta
2021: Shane van Gisbergen from fourth to second at Sandown

The Eric Idle Award
Description: "When You're Chewing on Life's Gristle, Don't Grumble, Give a Whistle, And This'll Help Things Turn Out For The Best, and...  Always Look On The Bright Side of Life."
And the Nominees are:
Colton Herta
Linus Lundqvist
Scuderia Ferrari
Wayne Taylor Racing
Martin Truex, Jr.

And the winner is... Linus Lundqvist
Every junior formula series driver has hopes that one championship will launch a career into something greater. In Indy Lights, one championship comes with a prize of competing in IndyCar, enough of a slice of the pie to make a full-time ride achievable for a young driver.

Lundqvist drove brilliantly in Indy Lights. Five victories, nine podium results, 13 top five finishes and his worst result all season was sixth. All signs pointed to him being destined for IndyCar. With HMD Motorsports' partnership with Dale Coyne Racing, there was a natural landing spot.

The prize was thought to be over $1 million, a good chunk of a full season, enough to cover at least a handful of races. When it came time to receive the check, Lundqvist had far less than $1 million. He was handed $400,000.

It may buy him a race or two, but it isn't even enough to cover an Indianapolis 500 entry. What happened to the $1 million prize? Apparently, the teams received a memo at the start of the season that the distribution of prize money would change and decrease the reward paid for a full season result and award more funds for race results. The problem is that message never quite got through to the teams until the season was already over.

The biggest loser is Lundqvist. He went from IndyCar hopeful to a borderline afterthought as the offseason slowly verges into the preseason and the Swede remains without a ride with no sense of where he will land.

On the other nominees:
It felt like 2022 was going to be Herta's breakout year. After Formula One ties emerged in late 2021, Herta needed a standout year to qualify for a FIA Super License. There were a few breathtaking days, but too many poor ones, some out of his control and some mistakes that could only be planted at his feet. He didn't finish high enough in the IndyCar championship to achieve the 40 Super License points, though that didn't stop him from pursuing a ride. Looking to squeeze into AlphaTauri, a request to waive the requirement was issued, but denied, and Herta ends this year no closer to Formula One than when he started. 

Ferrari started the Formula One season with the best car. It looked ready to match Red Bull and give it a challenge all the way to Abu Dhabi. But Ferrari kept finding ways to lose races. Red Bull outmatched them in one race. Then Ferrari had a reliability issue in the next. Then the strategy woes entered the picture. Ferrari couldn't get a race winning strategy down if the company depended on it. Soon Red Bull and Max Verstappen were in control and Ferrari couldn't loosen that grip. It went from hopeful to laughingstock in less than eight months. 

Arguably the best team in IMSA, Wayne Taylor Racing entered this year off the back of consecutive runner-up finishes in the DPi championship. Hoping the third time would be the charm, it won four races and led the championship into the Petit Le Mans finale. All it needed was a solid finish and Meyer Shank Racing not stealing the show. It was looking good until the final hours. Then MSR came on. Wayne Taylor Racing needed a push at the end, but suspension failure cost the team and handed the title to its Acura counterparts. It was another runner-up result. 

Truex, Jr. was good in 2022. The problem is good wasn't close to enough. It was good enough if you could win one race, but Truex didn't have that go his way. There were plenty of close calls only for cautions or pit strategy to go against him. It put Truex on the playoff bubble despite being in the top five of points. At the regular season finale in Daytona, Truex was caught in the accident as rain hit the circuit, but he was able to continue. However, with a significantly damaged car, Truex was a glorified spectator as Austin Dillon won the race and Truex was knocked out of the playoffs despite having been in the top ten of the championship after 25 of the first 26 races and having been no worse than 11th on points all regular season.

Past Winners
2012: Ben Spies
2013: Sam Hornish, Jr.
2014: Alexander Rossi
2015: McLaren
2016: Toyota
2017: Nick Heidfeld
2018: Brett Moffitt
2019: Dennis Lind
2020: Marc Márquez
2021: Liam Lawson

Comeback of the Year
Description: The Best Comeback in the 2022 season.
And the Nominees are:
Memo Gidley
Robert Wickens
Sébastien Bourdais at Long Beach
Matthew Brabham
Max Verstappen at the United States Grand Prix

And the winner is... Robert Wickens
In the aftermath of the 2018 Pocono 500, despite learning about the severity of Wickens' injuries, we all believed he would get behind the wheel of a race car someday. As he rehabilitated from his spinal injury and carried the hope of walking again, Wickens displayed the determination and resolve everyone should replicate in all walks of life.

For Wickens, he continued to work hoping to walk again. Simultaneously, he worked to get himself back in race shape. He drove an adapted Corvette ahead of an IndyCar weekend at Toronto, but it wasn't until the spring of 2021 he tested a race car again.

From that test, Wickens announced he would return to competition in the Michelin Pilot Challenge series driving a Hyundai in the TCR class with Bryan Herta Autosport. Returning to competition is an accomplishment, but Wickens did more.

At Daytona, Wickens and co-driver Mark Wilkins contested for the race victory only to finish third. A few tough results followed only for Wickens and Wilkins to win at Watkins Glen. It was followed by a second victory at Mosport. The season ended with Wickens sixth in the championship.

The first act of the return could not have gone any better for Wickens. From what we have seen, he will only obtain loftier heights in the years to come.

On the other nominees:
Gidley started his comeback in 2021, over seven years after a brutal accident in the 24 Hours of Daytona left him with a broken back and leg. He underwent eight surges in three years to rebuild his body. After running a few sports car races late last year, Gidley signed up to run a full season of IMSA Prototype Challenge. He won pole position at Daytona and finished second. Then he won at Mid-Ohio. Four podium results in five races netted him second in the championship with co-driver Alexander Koreiba. Gidley also won the European Le Mans Series season opener in the GTE class with Rinaldi Racing at Circuit Paul Ricard.

Bourdais is a talented driver, but even talented drivers make mistakes. At Long Beach, the Frenchman started on pole position but put the car in the wall exiting the hairpin on lap six and dropped to last in the DPi class. Bourdais was over 21 seconds behind the lead with an hour and 32 minutes remaining. Over the next 23 laps, Bourdais clawed his way forward and in less than a half-hour, Bourdais was back to the lead. He handed over the car to Renger van der Zande, who led the race to the checkered flag and the #01 Cadillac won by 3.761 seconds over its teammate in the #02 Cadillac. 

Once the hottest prospect in the Road to Indy, Brabham's career took a detour when funding disappeared. After a handful of seasons dominating in Stadium Super Trucks, Brabham put the money together for another Indy Lights season with Andretti Autosport, nearly six years removed from his last efforts in a single-seater car. With a little bit of fortunate, he won on his return at St. Petersburg. It was a bumpy season, but he won again at Gateway and Brabham was third in the championship, a spot better than his only other full season in Indy Lights back in 2014. 

It was a dominant Formula One season for Max Verstappen, but a few races were harder fought than others. Verstappen looked set for victory in Austin when it came for his final pit stop, but for the first time in a long time, Red Bull botched a pit stop. Verstappen went from the lead to over nine seconds behind Lewis Hamilton with 19 laps remaining. However, Verstappen put his head down and ate into the Mercedes' lead. He didn't even need all the laps. Verstappen was back in front with seven laps remaining and took the victory 5.023 seconds clear of Hamilton. 

Past Winners
2013: Michael Shank Racing at the 24 Hours of Daytona
2014: Juan Pablo Montoya to IndyCar
2015: Kyle Busch
2016: Max Verstappen from 15th to 3rd in the final 18 laps in the wet in the Brazilian Grand Prix
2017: Kelvin van der Linde: From third to first after a botched pit stop in the final 20 minutes in the 24 Hours Nürburgring
2018: Billy Monger: Returning to racing after losing his legs and finishing sixth in the BRDC British Formula 3 Championship with four podium finishes and a pole position at Donington Park.
2019: MotoE: For getting to the grid after fire destroyed every motorcycle prior to the first round of the season
2020: The #7 Acura Team Penske: Coming from last in the championship to winning the IMSA DPi championship
2021: Kyle Busch's victory at Pocono

Most Improved
Description: Racer, Team or Manufacture Who Improved The Most from 2021 to 2022.
And the Nominees are:
Scott McLaughlin: From 14th on 305 points to fourth on 510 points with three victories in IndyCar
Felix Rosenqvist: From 21st on 205 points to eighth on 393 points in IndyCar
Enea Bastianini: From 11th on 102 points to third on 219 points with four victories
Ross Chastain: From 20th on 729 points to second with two victories in the NASCAR Cup Series
Sheldon van der Linde: From 11th on 55 points to champion on 164 points with three victories in DTM

And the winner is... Scott McLaughlin
McLaughlin's sophomore season in IndyCar saw the New Zealander make a massive leap forward and it started in the first race of the season. After starting no better than 13th on a street course as a rookie, he won pole position at St. Petersburg. From pole position, he took his first career victory in his 18th career start.

At the second race of the season at Texas, McLaughlin qualified second but took the lead from the jump and led 186 laps only to have teammate Josef Newgarden overtake him exiting the final corner of the final lap. The first two races set the tone for McLaughlin's season.

He had a bit of a slip at the end of spring, but won for the second time at Mid-Ohio and then went on a run of five consecutive top five finishes ending with a dominant victory at Portland that kept his championship hopes alive, albeit by the slightest of margins.

It should be noted how significant of a career change McLaughlin has made moving to IndyCar. His single-seater career consisted of a single season of Formula Ford in Australia over a decade before the IndyCar move. He spent his entire career in tin-tops and became one of the best drivers in Supercars history. In year two of IndyCar he became a title contender. He might be driving for Team Penske, but plenty of other drivers in his position would not come close to matching these results.

On the other nominees:
Rosenqvist appeared to be a dead man walking entering the 2022 IndyCar season. After a few notable drivers had been kicked to the curb due to poor performances, it was tough imaging the leash was long from McLaren. The season didn't start out well, but Rosenqvist had a stellar Indianapolis 500. He matched Patricio O'Ward at many races and ended up only finishing one position behind the Mexican in the championship. Now, Rosenqvist will be back for the 2023 season, something that looked unlikely at the start of the year. 

Expectations are low for a rider on a year-old bike, but Bastianini was on the right bike as Ducati had to work out some kinks in the newer model. On the older Ducati, Bastianini won the season opener. He was a regular contender. He won three of the first seven races. Results became a little more jumbled up as the season went along, but Bastianini kept himself in the title picture into the penultimate race of the season. His four victories were second most only behind champion Francesco Bagnaia. 

Chastain had a staggering Cup season. Absorbed into Trackhouse when the team purchased Chip Ganassi Racing's NASCAR assets, Chastain scored the team's first victory at Austin. He followed it up becoming the second repeat winner of the season at Talladega. Chastain was a contender for most of the season. There was a slip in the summer, but when the playoff started he was up there again and forced his way into the final four after that Hail Mary effort in Martinsville. He ended up second in the championship.

The other van der Linde, Sheldon was already in his brother Kelvin's shadow. The 2022 season was the year Sheldon broke out. He swept the races in the second round at Lausitz. He won later at the Nürburgring. While taking on Lucas Auer, René Rast and Mirko Bortolotti, three stout GT drivers, van de Linde ended with a flourish, a pair of podium results to take his first DTM championship.

Past Winners
2012: Esteban Guerrieri
2013: Marco Andretti
2014: Chaz Mostert
2015: Graham Rahal
2016: Simon Pagenaud
2017: DJR Team Penske
2018: Gary Paffett
2019: Cooper Webb
2020: Joan Mir
2021: Francesco Bagnaia

And that will do it. We have settled 2022 and soon 2023. There will be plenty of competition soon enough as the New Year begins. More exciting new events await us. Rivals will continue and some will emerge. Old familiar faces will remain at the front and a few will stake their claim on a piece of the history book. We have the holidays to enjoy first. Racing can wait but it will return in no time. 

Before that, we will a few sets of predictions and Christmas presents to hand out to close the year.