Musings From the Weekend: Wandering the Desert

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

It is 2025, and a Brabham (Matt) and an Andretti (Adam) finished 1-2 at Road Atlanta (Trans-Am). Ferrari suffered a devastating blow post-race in Shanghai, a double disqualification. There was another unfulfilled finish in the NASCAR world. There were another two pretty good races in Homestead, however. Supercross came back with a Triple Crown weekend. Álex Palou brought Zak Brown's worst nightmare to life, as Palou passed two McLaren cars and drove off to win by over ten seconds at Thermal Club, which hosted its first IndyCar championship race, a notable occasion for many reasons.

Wandering the Desert

Palm Springs, California is much different than St. Petersburg, Florida. 

Trading in the blue bay and breeze for the yellow sands and mountainous backdrop, IndyCar experiences a swift shift in the surroundings. At least it is still warm. 

Possible more notable than going from a street circuit with an airport runway for a main straightaway to a country club racetrack is what is missing.

The people. 

After starting the season with a festival atmosphere that attracts attendees from all over, some hoping to escape the final weeks of winter to the locals who are happy to have the race back in town, IndyCar experiences a sharp juxtaposition at Thermal Club. 

There is nobody there. 

We say that about a lot of races. There are obviously some people there, but at St. Petersburg you know people are there. There are the yachts and grandstands in multiple corners. People watch from balconies surrounding the circuit, taking advantage of a fortunate apartment or hotel location. You can see people walking around the grounds as the cars are on track. You rarely see a soul at Thermal Club. 

It doesn't help that ticket sales were limited to 5,000. Around a three-mile circuit, there is no way 5,000 people will ever look like a crowd even if they are all crammed into one grandstand on the outside of the circuit. That is 5,000 people for race day. It is far less on Friday and Saturday when there is no other competition on track. There wasn't a Road to Indy Series or SRO America series to fill the bill. Thermal is an IndyCar-only weekend. When IndyCar goes quiet, the circuit goes quiet. There is nothing keeping people around.

For the members who have a home at the circuit, no problem. They can go inside and turn on the television or take a nap. I cannot imagine why anyone would stick around as public spectator. 

They are entirely different weekends, but in the second weekend with a new television broadcaster that is trying to sell IndyCar and give people a reason to be excited about it, racing at a place where there is no excitement is not going to convince viewers to continue watching. 

It doesn't help when the broadcast goes out for 20 minutes and NASCAR is the emergency filler programming. It does not appear the facility had anything to do with the broadcast issues, but it happened at Thermal Club, a venue that has next to zero supporters in the fanbase. The opposition didn't need any more ammunition against this event.

I wrote last year that there are not many places lining up to host IndyCar. Thermal Club was willing to spend $2 million for the sanctioning fee. IndyCar went to a willing partner, but it is a partner that arguably does not care about the greater good of IndyCar. It is a place that cannot accommodate that many spectators to begin with. It isn't looking to provide a larger gathering. The race exists for the club and is a gift to the members. 

The 5,000 tickets on sale are to recoup the loss. Do the math. At a $475.75 for general admission, 5,000 tickets will rake in $2,378,750. If the total allotment is sold, Thermal Club breaks even. It is the only way the club is willing to make money. There was no sponsorship around the circuit. No billboards in the background. No wrap around the tire barriers. The race didn't have a title sponsorship. Those are all ways the circuit could raise revenue and cover the cost, which would allow tickets to be more affordable, but sponsors and billboards are not the aesthetic of a club. No one wants to see faded Firestone signage when they step out onto their patio on a Saturday morning in September. They don't want any reminders an IndyCar race was held there. 

Long-term viability of this race comes down to how long the members want to pay for it. If they can sell all the tickets, then the race will pay for itself with non-members money, and Thermal Club will continue to host it. If they can get 5,000 non-members, some would call them "suckers," to pay for their party, they are going to keep holding it, but even if they only sell half or a quarter, are they willing to eat a $1,000,000 loss every year to have something special? Other tracks have a bottom line to meet. They cannot afford lose money on an event year after year. Thermal can make money in a number of other ways, and it constantly has people paying membership fees. It is a group that can stomach a loss.

IndyCar has a decision to make. It isn't going to say no to someone paying a full sanctioning fee to host an event, but is this boosting IndyCar in a notable way? We were told ahead of last year's race Thermal is about attracting big fish. People with multi-million dollar bank accounts who run large companies and can turn into a sponsor, whether that is of a race team or the series itself. That's nice. These teams need someone to foot the increasing budgets to compete in the series, but IndyCar also need to reach more people. 

The series needs quality AND quantity. It needs the rich man with money to burn but it also needs the common man who is looking for a new hobby that can turn into a passion. At best, 5,000 people are attending Thermal Club, a race in Southern California three weeks before another race in Southern California, and one that is hailed as one of IndyCar's biggest races in Long Beach. 

Are those 5,000 people more valuable than 25,000 people at Pocono or Loudon or Richmond? What about 50,000 people over an entire weekend at Watkins Glen or maybe Virginia International Raceway? One part of the country is barren of IndyCar's presence and yet IndyCar is wondering why its reach is lacking. Southern California already had a race and didn't need another. The excess is waste. The potential for growth is stunted with such an event at a time when the series must look to spread beyond the shell it has bunkered into since the pandemic started five years ago. If IndyCar was in every corner of the country, or at least in the major areas, and it had 20 or 22 races, then perhaps there is a place for Thermal to host this race, but that is not the case.

After pumping up IndyCar in St. Petersburg and creating a scene, IndyCar retreated into isolation. It brought the race to the people and then ran to the middle of nowhere. It went from a party for all to a party where you aren't invited and they aren't going to make it easy for you to get through the door. Such a contrast can only leave people asking, "What is IndyCar and is it for me?" After a second trip to the desert, a weekend where the lack of atmosphere screamed louder than the race cars, hopefully the series is asking itself the same question. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Oscar Piastri won the Chinese Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton won the sprint race.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Homestead, his 30th career victory, the 30th driver to reach that milestone. Justin Allgaier won the Grand National Series race, his second consecutive victory. Kyle Larson also won the Truck race, his fourth career victory in the series.

Elfyn Evans won the Safari Rally Kenya, his second consecutive victory.

Chase Sexton won the Supercross Triple Crown round from Birmingham after winning the first two races and finishing second in the third. Cooper Webb won the final race. Nate Thrasher won the 250cc round after finishes of third, third and second. R.J. Hampshire (race one) and Seth Hammaker (races two and three) split the three races.

Coming Up This Weekend

MotoGP comes to the United States for a round in Austin.

NASCAR will be in Martinsville.

World Superbike has its first race in Europe with a visit to Portimão.

Supercross strolls into Seattle.

First Impressions: Thermal Club 2025

1. Álex Palou is the best IndyCar has at the moment, and it helps that he is paired with the best team. This race was more than Palou having a new set of alternate tires for the final stint of the race. This was a complete race, 65 laps run caution-free, and it required a rounded strategy with a rounded drive. 

Patricio O'Ward dominated this race over the first 50 laps. This was shades of Texas 2023 where O'Ward had nearly lapped the entire field through the first two-thirds of the race. O'Ward started on a new set of alternate tires and he was gone. No one was close while the rest of the field was left fighting with themselves, but this was a full race. 

Palou held ground in third behind Christian Lundgaard. It didn't matter that he was losing a little time on the primary tire. If anything, the middle two stints were a warning. Palou wasn't sluggish on the primary tire. He was comfortable. When it came time to the final stint, Palou could let it rip.

After the final round of pit stops, Palou was over ten seconds behind O'Ward with 16 laps remaining, and proceeded to rundown the Mexican driver and was leading with nine laps remaining. The tires were the deciding factor, but only because they were underneath Palou. If you put any of the other 26 drivers on the grid in Palou's situation with 16 laps to go, maybe two or three others could have won this race, and that is generous to say two or three. 

Palou went from ten seconds back to ten seconds up at the checkered flag. That is brilliance at the highest level. Barry Wanser deserves recognition for how this race was called and Palou has the talent to make such a strategy work. For the first time since 2020, a driver has opened a season with consecutive victories. The batting average of those drivers turning two wins on the spin into championships is ridiculously high. It is only March, spring a few days old, but get the stencil out now and prepare the Astor Cup accordingly.

1B. There are some rumors about a new Formula One team being interested in an IndyCar driver. The only reasonable option is Álex Palou. Hiring any other driver would be foolish.

2. Hindsight is 20/20, but O'Ward only using one set of alternate tires might have been the deciding factor. The alternate tire was the better tire today, even when worn. O'Ward went with three new sets of primary tires over the final three stints. Would have using one used set of alternate tire to been enough to hold off Palou after the final stop? I think there is a good chance it would have been. 

Palou started on used alternate tires and O'Ward drove away but when you consider O'Ward had over a ten-second gap after that final pit stop, I don't know if Palou could have made that up if O'Ward used the alternates. It would have been close, but one set of used alternate tires could have been the difference.

3. This was Zak Brown's nightmare. After McLaren went 1-2 in the Chinese Grand Prix with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, halfway through this race it looked like Arrow McLaren was set for a 1-2 at Thermal Club. It looked like a victory was a guarantee even if it wasn't a sweep of the top two spots. Suddenly, Álex Palou, a man the McLaren organization has sued for about $23 million to recoup investments, spoiled the whole damn party. Somewhere in Shanghai, an American is having a sour Monday morning. 

4. Christian Lundgaard did round out the podium for McLaren. A 2-3 day isn't quite a 1-3 or a 1-2. Same number of trophies are brought home; total square inches much less than anticipated. But Lundgaard had a phenomenal weekend. 

Both McLarens ended on primary tires. Lundgaard went used alternate to new alternates in the first two stints. That kind of made his bed. With this being a three-stop race, it isn't even hindsight that was saying end on the alternates. Ten of the top 12 finishers finished on the alternates. The only two that didn't were the McLarens. 

Through two race weekends, the Dane has matched O'Ward, and McLaren finally has a 1-2 combo that can do some damage in IndyCar. We are going to see more stout days for Lundgaard this season.

5. Rounding out the top five were Colton Herta and Felix Rosenqvist. As much as we can say the alternates were the right choice, it wasn't clear as day. Herta ended on new alternates while Rosenqvist used alternates on his final three stint, the last two were used. In the closing laps, Rosenqvist was closing on Herta. Herta held on by 0.5575 seconds to finish fourth. 

Kyle Kirkwood spent much of this race in fourth. Kirkwood ended on used alternates and he stopped on the same lap, lap 48, as Rosenqvist for that final set. Rosenqvist ended up fifth and pushing for forth. Kirkwood dropped to eighth and spent the final half-dozen laps running laps in the one-minute and 50-second range. 

Some teams had the balance to get the most of the alternates for an entire stint. Others clearly struggled at the very end.

Credit to Herta and Rosenqvist for making it work. Both likely want more than fourth and fifth because while in the top five, neither were in the picture for victory. There is plenty of ground to make up. 

6. It was a caution-free race and Will Power went from 21st to sixth. The one blessing in disguise to not advancing from the first round of qualifying is the extra set of new alternate tires. Power's final three stints were new alternates, used alternates and new alternates. He was making hay over the entire race but especially in the final 20 laps. Power still has it and the strategy was maximizing the tires at this team's disposal.

7. Marcus Armstrong needed to finish seventh today. If he doesn't have the suspension issue at St. Petersburg, Armstrong would have finished in the top ten. Meyer Shank Racing showed good speed again and Armstrong had to convert it into something. Starting and finishing seventh is all you can ask for. He didn't stand out today, but sometimes you just need to get a result on the board. Armstrong did that.

8. No one suffered more at the end of a stint on alternate tires than Kyle Kirkwood in the run to the checkered flag. It was kind of stunning seeing how off he was in those closing laps. We didn't see many others struggle that much late on used alternate tires. It really looked like alternate tires that were 18-20 laps old were still slightly better than primary tires at the same age or at least on level footing. I don't know if there was a greater problem. Eighth is not an accurate representation of Kirkwood's day.

9. I am not sure ninth is an accurate representation of Alexander Rossi's day either. He also struggled late on the alternate tire. The good thing is Ed Carpenter Racing produced a race car that could run in the top ten all day on a road course, and Rossi looked comfortable all day. Until the very end, but still, Rossi wasn't dropping back mid-race and then trying to claw spots back. They are close but still have some work to do.

10. Scott Dixon went from 11th to tenth, but he did more than that because Dixon started on the primary tire and dropped to like 18th or 19th in the opening stint. He ended with three consecutive stints on the alternate tire, but only the final stint was on a new set. That led to the charge into the top ten. It salvaged a day more than anything else.

11. If it wasn't for Palou's final stint and Will Power going from 21st to sixth, Graham Rahal would have a strong case for drive of the day. He went 18th to 11th, but he was running better than that as his middle two stints were on new alternate tires. He ended on a used set and that might have cost him a top ten. Rahal was about 4.5 seconds slower than Dixon on the final lap of the race. If Rahal runs the used alternates a stint early, you could argue he would have been in the same spot, but I think the argument should be to end on the best tires you got. That seems more advantageous than ending on a used set.

12. To bolster Ed Carpenter Racing's confidence, Christian Rasmussen was 12th, and he ended on a set of new alternate tires. Other than the final stint and making up some ground, Rasmussen wasn't all that present in this race, but he ended on a good impression.

13. I don't know what Josef Newgarden was doing using two sets of new alternates mid-race and then finishing on new primary tires. My only guess is Newgarden didn't have faith in used alternates, and that might have been a good choice as he was still running below a minute and 50 seconds in the closing laps. It felt like Newgarden hit 12th and then couldn't run better than that. 

14. For a driver that lost his hybrid early, 14th for Santino Ferrucci is an outstanding day. When that was announced, Ferrucci was running just outside the top ten, and we had just gotten pass the first pit stop. It felt like he was in for a long day. This might not have been the best possible outcome, but it felt like it was going to be much worse than this.

15. As for everyone outside the top 14, I don't know if there is much to say about any of them.

Kyffin Simpson kept it on the track and finished 15th, we didn't see Conor Daly once as he finished 16th, Rinus VeeKay didn't have a good second stint on the primary tire and he lost ground to 17th. 

David Malukas and Nolan Siegel feel like missed opportunities. Malukas started inside the top 12, started on new alternate tires and then blew it on primary tires on the second stint. He ended on primary tires as well in 18th position.

Siegel was trapped behind Ferrucci during the second stint when Ferrucci was on primary tires with no hybrid system and Siegel had new alternates. Siegel could not make a move and others pounced on him. And then he made this a four-stop race as he only did ten laps on used alternates before primary tires for 14 laps and then one more run on used alternates. His strategy was garbage, and it led to a 19th-place result. That seems likes a team that got stuck and couldn't stop making mistakes.

16. Devlin DeFrancesco spun Scott McLaughlin before we even got to the green flag. DeFrancesco had a penalty, though I think 20th was the best he was going to do regardless. 

Marcus Ericsson lost spots running wide on the opening lap and then spun after his first pit stop, losing more ground. Two stints on primary tires, one of which was used, in the middle of the race did not help Ericsson's cause. Twenty-first is a brutal result.

17. I am going to cover both Prema cars here. Robert Shwartzman had a slow first pit stop. Shwartzman started well, but I think the team played it too conservative with two stints on new primary tires in the middle of the race. The team only ran qualifying and the warm-up. It didn't have the data to trust if it could do three stints on the alternates. For a team in its second race with nothing to lose, it should have just bit the bullet. 

Callum Ilott ran into the back of someone at the start and had to stop for a front wing change after lap one. It cost him a lap early and it was a 22-26 day for Prema.

18. Sting Ray Robb was out there and finished 23rd. If you forgot about him, you were not alone. 

I don't know what happened to Louis Foster that led him to finish 24th after starting tenth. There might be a reason for that. We will get to it in a moment. 

Jacob Abel. Two starts, two races finishing off the lead lap, and a drive-through penalty after his first stop did not help.

19. Oh, Scott McLaughlin. Started 25th only to be spun before the green flag and then the hybrid overheating was a crushing outing at Thermal. This is the second consecutive year McLaughlin has finished last in the second race of the season. Last year, he recovered and had a brilliant season. I bet he wasn't hoping not to have to repeat last season.

20. Thermal produced a good race, and last year showed the potential. With how quick tires wore down, a full race with a full field of cars and not 12-14 cars sets itself up for stellar race. Palou and Lundgaard traded passes for five consecutive corners. Palou erased a ten-second gap in no time. There were battles throughout the field. This wasn't a processional race by any means. It got strung out at the front at times, but this being a caution-free race with the variety of tire strategy made it exciting. 

This was no different than a race we have seen at Road America or Mid-Ohio or Laguna Seca. I don't know if the alternate/primary balance was too much in favor of the alternate, but Firestone will figure it out. Either way, we saw a race where teams had to really choose what tire to use. This was a three-stop race for everyone. Perhaps a little better primary tire opens up the pit windows. It was three stops but everyone could only make it 18 to 20 laps. I don't know if IndyCar wants it so a car can do 22 laps comfortably and make this a two-stop vs. three-stop race, but it would add another dimension that would not hurt.

21. I feel like I missed a lot of this race, and we all did because the broadcast went down for 20 minutes. It is unclear if it was just the television compound or the entire Thermal Club facility. Reports on the ground was the media center was fine throughout the 20-minute period. Timing and scoring did stay up. 

Things happen. If you recall NBC's first race on network television at St. Petersburg in 2019, part of that race experienced some technical issues. As technologically advanced as we have become, teething issues persist. They have been a little more noticeable over the first two races than anyone would like, and there is no way to spin losing a race broadcast for 20 minutes into a positive. The only positive is it was 20 minutes in the middle of the race and to the final 20 minutes. 

22. We have three more weeks to iron things out until Long Beach.

Morning Warm-Up: Thermal Club 2025

Patricio O'Ward snatched his sixth career pole position with a lap of 99.9567 seconds around the Thermal Club circuit, and O'Ward will lead an all-Arrow McLaren front row to the green flag for the Thermal Grand Prix. Christian Lundgaard took second spot ending up 0.1678 seconds off his teammate. For O'Ward, it is his first pole position since Mid-Ohio 2022, 43 races ago. In four of his five pole position starts, the Mexican driver has finished in the top five. He has finished second, third, fourth and fifth from the first starting spot. O'Ward's other finish was 24th after a fuel pressure issue in that 2022 Mid-Ohio race. While O'Ward won at Mid-Ohio last season, his average finish on natural-terrain road courses was 11.333 and his next best result was eighth.

Christian Lundgaard ending up second makes this Arrow McLaren's first front row lockout ever in IndyCar, whether dating back to this organization's origins as FAZZT Race Team or McLaren's first foray into American open-wheel racing in the 1970s. This will be the fifth time Lundgaard has started on the front row in his career. The Dane has finished in the top five every time he has started on the front row in his career. Lundgaard has never finished better than 19th in the second race of the season.

Álex Palou was 0.3525 seconds off O'Ward, and Palou will start third. Palou is attempting to become the first driver to win consecutive races to open a season since his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Scott Dixon did it in 2020. The earliest Palou has won two races in a season is seven rounds, which he did in 2023. Palou's 12 victories for Ganassi is the fourth-most in team history behind Dixon (57), Alex Zanardi (15) and Dario Franchitti (13).

Colton Herta is on the outside of the second row. The California-native was 0.4411 seconds off pole position. Herta has never opened a season with consecutive finishes outside the top ten. He was 16th at St. Petersburg three weeks ago. Herta had top ten finishes in all six races held on natural-terrain road courses last season. He has finished in the top five in eight of his last 11 starts.

Marcus Ericsson makes it two Andretti Global cars starting inside the top five with Ericsson 0.7868 off O'Ward's top time. Ericsson was sixth in the season opener. Every time he has finished in the top ten in the first race of the season, Ericsson has finished in the top ten of the second race of the season as well. Last year, Ericsson started fifth in two races, and he finished fifth in both of those races as well.

Alexander Rossi takes sixth on the grid in what was Ed Carpenter Racing's first appearance in the final round of qualifying since the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Rossi had one appearance in the final round of qualifying last season. That was at Laguna Seca. Rossi was tenth at St. Petersburg. In his first nine seasons, Rossi has opened the season with consecutive top ten finishes only three times, including last year.

Marcus Armstrong missed out on the final round of qualifying by 0.0728 seconds. This is the fifth time Armstrong in starting in the top ten in his last seven starts. While Armstrong had two top five finishes and three top ten finishes on natural-terrain road courses last season, he finished 17th or worse in the other three natural-terrain road course events.

Kyle Kirkwood takes eighth on the grid after falling 0.121 seconds shy of advancing from the second round. Kirkwood has finished in the top five of his last two starts. The only time he has had three consecutive top five finishes was last season over the Detroit, Road America and Laguna Seca rounds. He won from eighth at Nashville in 2023, the only other time Kirkwood has started eighth in his career.

Meyer Shank Racing has its two cars starting nose-to-tail with Felix Rosenqvist in ninth. Entering this weekend Rosenqvist had started on pole position for the second race of the season for three consecutive years. His average finish in those three races was 18.667. This is the eighth time Rosenqvist has started ninth in his career. The last two times he has started ninth, he has finished 27th, and he has failed to finish four of the first seven races where he has started ninth.

In his second career start, Louis Foster has his first career top ten start in IndyCar. The Briton will take tenth on the grid. Foster was classified in last place at the season opener. The most recent driver to finish last in the first race of the season and then win a race later that year was Josef Newgarden in 2016. An IndyCar race has not been won from tenth starting position since the second Belle Isle race in 2018, 108 races ago, which Ryan Hunter-Reay won.

Scott Dixon starts 11th, the tenth time in the last 19 races Dixon has started outside the top ten. For five consecutive seasons, Dixon has finished in the top five of the second race of the season. In three of those races, he has finished fifth. In the other two he has won, including last year at Long Beach. However, Dixon started inside the top eight in all five of those races.

David Malukas was the slowest qualifier in the second round of qualifying, and Malukas slots into 12th on the grid. This is the fourth time in his last five road/street course races Malukas has made it to the second round of qualifying. In five starts in the state of California, Malukas' best finish is 13th and he has a career average finish of 18th.

Rinus VeeKay missed out of the second round of qualifying by 0.0838 seconds, and the Dutchman will start 13th. VeeKay ended an 18-race top ten drought for Dale Coyne Racing with his ninth-place finish in the St. Petersburg season opener. It was the fourth time in six seasons VeeKay has opened the season with a top ten finish.

Santino Ferrucci ended St. Petersburg in 14th and he will start 14th for the Thermal Grand Prix. Ferrucci was 0.0023 seconds off advancing to the second round. Last year at Laguna Seca, Ferrucci was ninth, his first top ten finish in the state of California in seven career starts. His average finish in the Golden State is 16.2857.

Conor Daly ended up 15th on the grid, 0.1304 seconds on the wrong side of the cutline for the first qualifying group. This will be only the 14th time in Daly's 41 road/street course races since the start of the 2020 season where he is starting in the top fifteen.

Nolan Siegel fell 0.0405 seconds off advancing from the second group, and Siegel will start 16th for the Thermal Grand Prix. Siegel has an average finish of 20.2857 over this first seven starts on road/street courses. His average starting spot in those races is 20th. 

Josef Newgarden is the top Team Penske starter in 17th. This is the first time Team Penske did not make it out of the first round of qualifying since Portland 2021. Newgarden has finished third in the last two races and he has finished third in four of the last nine races. Prior to this nine-race stretch, he had finished third in only five of his first 207 starts.

Graham Rahal ended up 18th on the grid. This will be seventh consecutive Rahal has started outside the top ten. This is his longest stretch without a top ten start since a seven-race run over the final four races of 2022 and the first three events in 2023. Rahal will be making his 294th start this weekend, tying Ryan Hunter-Reay for 11th all-time.

Christian Rasmussen takes 19th on the grid. This is Rasmussen's first time starting in the top twenty after four consecutive starts of 23rd or worse. When starting inside the top twenty, Rasmussen has never finished better than his starting spot. Seven time, he has finished worse than his starting spot. Only once has Rasmussen matched his starting spot, and that was finishing 20th after starting 20th in last year's Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top twenty on the grid. This will be Simpson's third consecutive top twenty start. It is the first time he has started inside the top twenty in this many consecutive races. Simpson has finished outside the top fifteen in seven of his last eight races.

Will Power will start 21st, his worst starting position since he started 22nd for the second Iowa race last year. Power was 26th at St. Petersburg. It was his worst finish in a season opener. His previous worst was 25th at Homestead in 2008. Dating back to last season, Power has finished outside the top twenty in two consecutive races, a first for Power since Iowa and Toronto in 2011. Power followed those two races up with victory in Edmonton nearly 14 years ago. The law time Power started 22nd, he won the race.

Callum Ilott has his Prema Chevrolet starting 22nd. In seven trips to California with IndyCar, this is the fifth time Ilott has started 20th or worse. In the other two he has stared 18th (Long Beach 2021) and second (Laguna Seca 2022). This will be Ilott's 40th career start. No driver has ever had a first career victory come in a 40th career start.

Jacob Abel starts his second IndyCar race two spot better than in his first IndyCar race. Abel takes 23rd on the grid. Abel was off the lead lap in the first race of the season, finishing 23rd at St. Petersburg. Since the first race of the season, Abel had a birthday. He turned 24 years old on March 9.

Sting Ray Robb occupies 24th position on the grid. This is the 36th time in 37 races Robb is starting outside the top twenty. This will be the ninth time he has started 24th in his career. His average finish from 24th starting spot is 17.375, but his only top ten finish came from 24th starting position. Robb went from 24th to ninth at Gateway last year.

Scott McLaughlin was the slowest qualifier in the first qualifying group and he will start 25th, his worst starting position since starting 26th in the 2022 Indianapolis 500. Dating back to last season, McLaughlin has three consecutive top five finishes. The only time McLaughlin has had at least four consecutive top five finishes was in 2022, starting with the second Iowa race and running through the Portland race.

Devlin DeFrancesco matches his career-worst starting position of 26th. It will be DeFrancesco's third time starting 26th in a race. Despite not starting a race in 2024, DeFrancesco has finished 22nd in his last two starts. He has finished outside the top fifteen in his last nine starts. Six of those finishes have been outside the top twenty.

Robert Shwartzman rounds out the grid in 27th position. Shwartzman did not complete a lap on track until qualifying. His weekend opened with a mechanical issue that caused a fire in the car and forced him to stop his car on the circuit before he could complete a lap in practice on Friday. The fire damage forced the team to repair the car through all of Saturday morning practice.

Fox's coverage of the Thermal Grand Prix begins at 3:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 3:17 p.m. The race is scheduled for 65 laps.

Track Walk: Thermal Club 2025

The second round of the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series brings the series back Thermal Club, just outside Palm Spring, California. Unlike last year, this race will not have an unusual format and nor will it be just for money. This year's trip to Thermal counts toward the championship. The 2025 season opened with a Chip Ganassi Racing 1-2 finish while Team Penske finished 3-4. Andretti Global took 5-6. St. Petersburg was the third time in the last six races Ganassi, Penske and Andretti swept at least the top five positions in a race. Dating back to last season, there have been six different winners in the last six races.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday March 23 with green flag scheduled for 3:17 p.m. ET.
Channel: Fox
Announcers: Will Buxton, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Jack Harvey will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Practice: 6:35 p.m. ET (75 minutes)

Saturday:

Second Practice: 1:05 p.m. ET (60 minutes)
Qualifying: 5:30 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Warm-up: 11:02 a.m. ET (25 minutes)
Race: 3:17 p.m. ET (65 laps)

FS1 will have coverage of all practice and qualifying sessions. Fox will have race coverag.

This Time, It Counts!

IndyCar's first visit to the Thermal Club last year was for an exhibition race. The event split the field into two heats with the top six finishers advancing to the main event that paid $500,000 to the winner.

This time, instead of having only 12 drivers compete over 20 laps, this year's race will see a full grid of 27 cars attempt to run 65 laps, 199.355 miles, in a race that counts toward the championship. Adjustments have been made to the pit lane to allow a full race to take place. Fifty points are awaiting the winner with another handful of bonus points on offer. 

Last year's exhibition race winner was Álex Palou, and the three-time champion dominated all aspects of the day. Palou started on pole position and he led all ten laps in his heat race. The Catalan driver followed that up leading all 20 laps in the main event, winning by nearly six seconds over Scott McLaughlin. 

Felix Rosenqvist rounded out the podium in last year's Thermal race. Rosenqivst had started second. Colton Herta started last in the exhibition race, but after conserving his tires in the first half of the race, Herta was able to charge up to fourth. Herta also went from 11th to sixth in the heat race to earn himself the final transfer spot. Marcus Armstrong and Linus Lundqvist made it three Chip Ganassi Racing cars in the top six finishers.

Alexander Rossi also saved his tires, but he was not able to get up further than seventh, though his improvement of three positions was second-best only behind Herta's eight-spot gain. Josef Newgarden slid back from sixth starting position to eighth. Christian Lundgaard and Agustín Canapino rounded out the top ten. 

There were two non-finishers in the main event, and both were Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing drivers. Graham Rahal pulled out of the race before hitting the halfway point. Throttle issues ended Rahal's day. Pietro Fittipaldi was disqualified when it was found he did not have enough fuel in his car after regulations stated all cars must start on a full tank. 

With only 12 drivers in the main event, a great number of drivers did not run more than ten laps around the 3.067-mile circuit. For the first heat race, competitors only completed eight laps as that race was stopped due to a time limit.  

Nolan Siegel was seventh in the first heat, the first driver to miss out on the main event. Siegel was driving for Dale Coyne Racing on this day. Siegel's current Arrow McLaren teammate Patricio O'Ward was seventh in the second heat race. 

Neither Will Power nor Scott Dixon made it out of the first heat race. Dixon infamously made contact with Romain Grosjean on the opening lap that sent Grosjean into Rinus VeeKay, taking out both drivers before they could complete a lap. Marcus Ericsson was the most notable driver not to make it out of the second race.

Only five of the eventual championship top ten were in the Thermal main event last year. Four of the 12 drivers finished outside the top fifteen in the championship. 

Already On Top

The bad news for everyone after the opening race of the season is Álex Palou is already the championship leader. 

Despite starting eighth in St. Petersburg, Palou was able to capitalize on the tire strategy as well as the radio issues for his teammate Scott Dixon to pull out what felt like an unthinkable victory even halfway through the first race of the season. Instead of finishing third or fourth, Palou ended up first and scored 51 points. 

It was a good start after a weak end to 2024. The victory ended a two-race skid of finishes outside the top ten. Palou has now finished in the top five in six of the last eight races dating back to last season. In each of the previous two seasons, Palou has had 13 top five finishes. 

The last thing Palou needed was a head start. 

Last season, Palou was never lower than third in the championship. He was third after the first three races. He took the championship lead after he won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and dropped to second after finishing 16th in Detroit. He had to stop on track when Josef Newgarden spun in front of him in the hairpin. Palou was out of the championship lead for all of two races. He was back on top after his second victory of the season at Laguna Seca. He never looked back as he led the championship over the final ten races to claim his third Astor Cup.

Palou has led the championship after 25 of the last 30 races. He has led the championship after 37 of 68 races with Chip Ganassi Racing. He has been ranked in the top three of the championship after 56 of those 68 races.

The closest rivals are familiar faces. Scott Dixon was second at St. Petersburg, his fifth time finishing on the podium in the last seven season openers. St. Petersburg was the 23rd time Chip Ganassi Racing has had a 1-2 finish, the team's first since Mid-Ohio 2023. Josef Newgarden was third, his first podium finish on a street course since he won at Long Beach in 2022. Scott McLaughlin led 40 laps from pole position at St. Petersburg, but McLaughlin lost too much time when on the alternate tires in the middle of the race, dropping the New Zealander down to fourth.

This is the second time Palou has won the season opener. In 2021, he won the first race of the year from Barber Motorsports Park, his first race with Chip Ganassi Racing, and he ended that season with his first championship. He has finished on the podium in the season opener in three of the last five seasons. He has never finished worse than eighth in the opening race while driving for Ganassi.

Palou will be attempting to become the 12th driver since 1946 to open the season with consecutive victories. The most recent driver to open a season with consecutive victories was his teammate, Scott Dixon in 2020.

Eight of the 11 drivers to open the season with consecutive victories have gone on to win the championship. That includes Scott Dixon in 2020, who won the first three races and went wire-to-wire leading the championship.

Second Time is the Charm

Sixteen races remain in the 2025 IndyCar season. There is more road ahead than is behind, but there are some drivers who are not happy with how the opening race went. One bad race isn't the end of the world, but no driver wants two poor results to open a season. Drivers will want to correct course quickly if they hope to have a respectable season. 

Eleventh isn't a bad result for the opening race, but Patricio O'Ward was likely hoping to finish better than that in St. Petersburg. It didn't help that O'Ward started 23rd and had to overcome a four-stop strategy to finish on the cusp of the top ten in the first race of 2025. O'Ward may have won recently, but dating back to last season, he has been in a slump. It has been feast or famine for the Mexican driver. He has finished outside the top ten in five of the last seven races with three of those results being outside the top fifteen. 

For a moment during the St. Petersburg race, Colton Herta looked to be the de facto leader. Of the drivers that started on the alternate tire and stopped on lap two of the race, Herta was ahead of all of them on the first restart, and Herta even got ahead of Callum Ilott, putting a buffer between him and the rest of those on his strategy. It went wrong when Herta had a botched pit stop where the crew was unable to get the tires on cleanly and the team did not get the car full of fuel. This dropped Herta to 16th in the final result. Last season, Herta had four finishes outside the top ten as he finished second in the championship, 31 points off Álex Palou.

Marcus Armstrong qualified on the second row and spent much of the opening stint running in the top three. Through the pit cycle, Armstrong led three laps. It was a promising day even if the New Zealander was running the alternate tire in the middle of the race. Unfortunately, left front suspension issues ended his race after 46 laps. It is the third time in the last four races Armstrong has finished outside the top twenty. To make matters worse, every time he has started in the top five he has finished outside the top twenty. At St. Petersburg, his Meyer Shank Racing teammate Felix Rosenqvist finished seventh and Armstrong spent much of the opening stint running right behind Rosenqvist. 

The opening lap at St. Petersburg saw three drivers sidelined before they could even complete four corners. Will Power spun Nolan Siegel in turn three and Louis Foster was caught as collateral damage. All three drivers head to Thermal with zero laps completed this season. For two of those drivers, this was not the start they wanted as they try to establish themselves as series regulars. For the other, it was a significant blow to a championship push that coincides with a contract season.

For Power, it was the second time in his career he failed to complete a lap in a race. The other was Toronto 2017. Siegel was classified in 25th, matching his career worst result. He was 25th in the second Milwaukee race last year after a gearbox issue after 24 laps. Foster became the third driver since the start of the 2023 season to not complete a lap in a debut race. Benjamin Pedersen was also caught in an opening lap accident at St. Petersburg and finished 27th in 2023. Tom Blomqvist did not complete a lap on his debut at Toronto in 2023.

The bad news for these six drivers and the other 11 that finished outside the top ten at St. Petersburg is nine consecutive champions had a top ten finish in the first race of the season. Only once since reunification has the champion started the season a with a result outside the top ten. That was Scott Dixon in 2015 when he opened with a 15th-place finish at St. Petersburg. The most recent champion to open a season with a finish outside the top fifteen was Greg Ray, who finished 22nd in the 1999 Indy Racing League opener from Walt Disney World Speedway before he won his only championship.

Inexperience in the Desert

IndyCar might have been at Thermal Club last year, but there are a fair number of drivers who are making their first start at the three-mile facility in Southern California.

Among those drivers in the championship, David Malukas is best positioned after the opening race of the Thermal debutants. Malukas missed last year's race with a wrist injury when he was supposed to be racing with Arrow McLaren. In his first race with A.J. Foyt Racing, Malukas was 13th, best of the two Foyt races. Santino Ferrucci was directly behind Malukas in 14th. 

Neither A.J. Foyt Racing car made the main event last year at Thermal. Ferrucci was eighth in the first heat and Sting Ray Robb was 11th in that same race.

Conor Daly has raced at a number of circuits in his IndyCar career, but he was not in an entry in last year's Thermal exhibition race. On natural-terrain road courses, Daly has not finished in the top ten since he was fifth in the 2022 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. He has not had a top ten finish west of the Mississippi since he was eighth in the first race of the 2020 Iowa doubleheader. His only top ten finish on a road or street course west of the Mississippi was tenth in the 2017 season finale from Sonoma. 

Though Juncos Hollinger Racing's first trip to Thermal will largely be remembered for Grosjean's accident and his reaction afterward, JHR did have a car in the final race. Agustín Canapino was tenth. He had finished fifth in the first heat race after starting eighth.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had the most participants in last year's Thermal main event as all three cars made it. The problem is none of those cars finished better than ninth, and now 2/3rds of the RLLR lineup has never raced at Thermal before. Devlin DeFrancesco was a surprise second round qualifier in St. Petersburg, but he dropped to 22nd, one-lap down in the race. Though Foster's debut did not go as planned, he did qualify 16th, the second-best RLLR starter at St. Petersburg, two spots behind DeFrancesco. 

Along with Foster, the other two rookies will also be new to Thermal Club. Robert Shwartzman was 20th on debut in St. Petersburg. Shwartzman was a spot behind Prema teammate Callum Ilott. Ilott will bring some Thermal knowledge into this race for IndyCar's newest team. The Briton raced with Arrow McLaren last year in place of Malukas. Ilott was ninth in the second heat race and did not advance to the main event. Both Prema cars did test at Thermal Club in January.

Jacob Abel is the sixth driver who will be new to Thermal Club. Abel's IndyCar debut was better than Foster's, but not quite as good as Shwartzman's. Struggling with pace the entire weekend, Abel was one-lap down in 23rd, two spots better than where he started, but only ahead of the four drivers that retired from the first race of the season. 

Dale Coyne Racing had Colin Braun in its #51 Honda last year at this event. Braun started 12th in the second heat and finished 13th out of 13 cars.

Fast Facts

This will be the fifth IndyCar race on March 23, and the first since 2003 when CART and the Indy Racing League both raced on this date. 

Twenty-two years ago, Paul Tracy won the CART race at Monterrey, his second consecutive victory to open the season. 

Twenty-two years ago, Tony Kanaan won the IRL race at Phoenix, his second career victory and leading a Brazilian sweep of the podium ahead of Hélio Castroneves and Felipe Giaffone. Kanaan's victory was the first for the Andretti Green Racing organization.

Thermal Club becomes the first new natural-terrain road course to host an IndyCar championship race since Circuit of the Americas in Austin in 2019.

The last two natural-terrain road courses to join the IndyCar calendar did not host a second championships race. IndyCar made one visit to Austin in 2019 before the pandemic cancelled the 2020 round. The next most recent circuit was NOLA Motorsports Park, which hosted its only IndyCar race in 2015 before financial issues shuttered any attempt of a second race in 2016.

Since reunification, the eventual champion has won the second race of the season only twice in 17 seasons (Dario Franchitti in 2009 at Long Beach and Scott Dixon in 2020 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course).

Chevrolet won four of six natural-terrain road course races in 2024. 

The only Honda driver to win on a natural-terrain road course last year was Álex Palou (IMS road course and Laguna Seca).

Chip Ganassi Racing is responsible for Honda's last nine victories on natural-terrain road courses. The last Honda natural-terrain road course victory that was not a Ganassi driver was Andretti Autosport's Alexander Rossi in the July 2022 round on the IMS road course.

Honda has won the last five races held in California.

Team Penske has won ten pole positions since Will Power's most recent pole position (second race of the 2023 Iowa doubleheader).

Will Power has not started on pole position for a road/street course race since the 2022 season finale at Laguna Seca.

The pole-sitter has not won in the last six races, the longest streak without a pole-sitter winning since the final seven races of the 2023 season.

IndyCar has not had a first-time winner in the last 25 races. This is IndyCar's longest stretch without a first-time winner since the 45 races between Alexander Rossi's first victory in the 2016 Indianapolis 500 and Colton Herta's first victory at Austin in 2019. Herta's victory was in the second race of the 2019 season.

This year's Thermal Club race falls on the eve of the six-year anniversary of Herta's first career victory at Austin.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average starting position for an IndyCar race winner is 5.5609 with a median of third.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average number of lead changes in an IndyCar race is 9.8048 with a median of eight.

Since the start of the 2020 season, and the introduction of the aeroscreen, the average number of cautions in an IndyCar race is 3.1707 with a median of 2.5. The average number of caution laps is 18.0121 with a median of 12.5.

Predictions

Álex Palou picks up where he left off last year and he will have two victories from two races. Palou will win from pole position and lead over 50 laps. Colton Herta has a podium finish. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have no more than one car finish in the top 12. Juncos Hollinger Racing will have both cars complete the opening lap. Every car will complete the opening lap. At least one top five finisher will start outside the top fifteen. There will be more than 150 total passes. Dale Coyne Racing has one car finish at least six spots better than where it started. Prema will have a car start and finish inside the top fifteen. Sleeper: Christian Lundgaard.

First Impressions: Thermal Club 2024

1. The best driver in IndyCar won. What else needs to be said? In IndyCar's first exhibition race in over 15 years, Álex Palou dominated, leading every lap in his heat race and the main event to claim the $500,000 prize. It wasn't a surprise, and it is the kind of performance we are accustomed to in every IndyCar race. Palou finds a way to come out on top more times than not. It was no different in an exhibition race at a track that was still relatively new to the entire field. Today was a bonus. Tomorrow, the championship defense returns to focus. 

2. I don't know how deep we should go into the results and how drivers did because this was an exhibition race and the result doesn't really matter. Scott McLaughlin was untouched in second. Felix Rosenqvist was third after winning the first heat race. It is still early in the season, but after St. Petersburg this was a great way to follow up for Rosenqvist and the Meyer Shank Racing group. It is something to keep an eye on for the remainder of the season.

3. Entering this weekend, Alexander Rossi made known a strategy on his podcast, "Off-Track with Hinch and Rossi," where a driver could lay back in the first ten laps of the main event to save tires before going for it in the second half. A few drivers attempted it. It worked out best for Colton Herta. Herta was eight to 12 seconds off Palou for the entire first half. He went for it and ended up fourth. Once he got in dirty air, it slowed him up and he wasn't blowing through drivers. Still a good drive to fourth, but it wasn't the insane difference in speed some may have thought.

4. Speaking of tires, for all the talk of falloff, the drivers at the end of the 20-lap main event were still running laps in the 102-103 second range. The fastest laps we were seeing all weekend was low 98s and the fastest lap in the main event was 101.6145 seconds. Considering most were still within three seconds of the fastest race lap at the end, the tires didn't drop off a cliff. It sounded like everyone expected the end of the stint to be six or seven seconds off the top pace, but we didn't see that. There was still tire falloff, but not overly extreme.

5. Good day for Marcus Armstrong and Linus Lundqvist as they rounded out the top six. Armstrong made it tough on Herta. Herta ultimately had a little more tire. Lundqvist gave Herta some trouble and Lundqvist successful held off Alexander Rossi.

6. Alexander Rossi started saving tires about two laps into the first half of the main event, and Rossi looked quicker than Herta at the start of the second half. However, Rossi and Josef Newgarden ran wide in a battle and neither could get back ahead of Lundqvist and Herta once they slid ahead. It was definitely difficult to pass at Thermal Club even with a tire advantage.

7. Christian Lundgaard somehow overcame a hole being punched into the left side of his car at the start of the first heat race to advance to the final. Lundgaard attempted to save tires but the damage appeared to be too much to overcome. Agustín Canapino rounded out the top ten, as the Argentine driver was a benefactor to the chaos at the start of the first heat race. 

8. If you had told Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing at the start of the weekend it would have all three cars in the final race, the team likely would have been ecstatic. Unfortunately, Graham Rahal's throttle was sticking in the final race, forcing a retirement, and the team failed to fill Pietro Fittipaldi's car full of fuel for the main event, which led to a disqualification. Not a great day for RLLR, but it could have been worse.

9. Let's tackle heat race one and the accident at the start. It could have been a mixture of an early start, cooler morning, rough surface and push-to-pass activated at the start with cars double-file. Scott Dixon flat ran into the back of Romain Grosjean. It was always going to be a penalty, and it kept Dixon out of the main. Grosjean slid into Rinus VeeKay, who also clipped Lundgaard. Rough way to end a weekend. Grosjean and VeeKay had been respectable all weekend.

That incident also forced Will Power wide and put him in a hole he couldn't drive out of. 

10. Nothing really happened in the second heat race. The top four starters finished 1-2-3-4. Pietro Fittipaldi went from sixth to fifth. Tom Blomqvist lost some ground, allowing Alexander Rossi to get into the main race. With ten-lap heat races, not much  happen. It was highly unlikely anyone starting tenth or worse was to drive into the top six. You had to start in the top eight to have a chance of making it to the main race unless there was some kind of incident. 

11. More can be said about the event itself and there are pluses and minuses..

Plus... IndyCar should explore push-to-pass usage in every road and street course qualifying session. It would add a new wrinkle and would be fascinating to see how it plays out and how drivers use it. 

Minus... Last year, one of the concerns with Thermal was if it could safely host an IndyCar race. I don't think those questions have been answered. The track was coming apart. The runoff could use some work, especially the barriers. The most cars we saw racing together at once was 14. That's half the field. I am not sure Thermal is adequate for a full race. Then again, IndyCar still races at Toronto, and have you see that pit lane?

Plus... There was tire degradation, and that would help in a full race. I don't think anyone would want to drive more than 20 laps, and if there was an alternate compound it would mix up strategies even more. That would be fun to watch.

Minus... It was difficult to pass. There was only one tire compound, which didn't help today, but I think even with a second compound it might not have changed much. There are a few promising areas. Turns one and three were tricky. A driver could make a look but had to be pinpoint accurate to make a pass stick. The best passing zone was turn seven. If you got through the esses, turn 14 was possible. Turn 15 was a good area but that tightened up considerable once you got into the corner. The track isn't going to change that much for IndyCar. This is a private track. They are focused on the members. 

Plus... I suggested something similar a few years ago, but I liked that the push-to-pass reset in the middle of the main event. I am not saying there should be a hard reset, but I think there should be a minimum use within the first half of the race. I wrote this after the 2021 Barber race. Essentially, a driver must use 40% of the allotted time within the first half of the race otherwise it is lost. Let's say a driver gets 150 seconds at the start of a race. A driver must use at least 60 seconds within the first half of the race or the driver will lose it. There is no point in saving it. It could potentially decrease teams saving fuel as they cannot backload and have over two minutes of push-to-pass in the final stint. I think this should be explored moving forward. 

Minus... It was odd there was no pit stop component to this weekend. The reason for the halftime break was no one could make it on 20 laps of fuel. However, considering the tire degradation, wouldn't it have made sense for the main race to be 30 laps and had at least one pit stop? I think that would have been more compelling than what we saw today.

Plus... I did like that Herta and a few drivers did lay back to see how it would work saving tires. It wasn't a guarantee for victory but Herta did end up finishing fourth, which is likely about five positions better than if he went all out from the opening lap.

Minus... The first ten laps did feel redundant because drivers were saving tires. There was no incentive to go for it. IndyCar could have easily added an incentive if it didn't want drivers running ten seconds off the pace. IndyCar could have eliminated the bottom four drivers after the first ten laps and had the top eight in the ten-lap shootout for the grand prize. That would have been an easy way to make the first half of the main event matter. 

Plus... I like that the heat races weren't balanced. IndyCar could have done a snake and alternated cars in each heat, but it made it random and the first heat was stacked. That is fine. 

Minus... There was no solid name for this race. "Million Dollar Challenge." "Sprint for the Purse." "All-Star Race." I would say if this was an IndyCar "all-star race," three of IndyCar's biggest stars weren't in it. There was no Scott Dixon, Will Power nor Patricio O'Ward. If IndyCar considers this its all-star race, it was a terrible all-star race. It was a straight-up format, top six from each heat made the final race, but IndyCar deprived itself of having its best drivers competing. I don't know if all past champions should have been locked in. I don't know if there should have been a fan vote for one driver to make the main, but let's not dare call this IndyCar's all-star race if three of its most notable drivers aren't competing in the main event. 

12. Roger Penske should have coughed up the other half-million to make it a proper million dollar prize for the winner. I don't really care about the payout to the other positions, but Penske should have made sure the winner at least got a million dollars and avoided this being the butt of the joke the entire weekend for fans, writers, team owners and drivers. Penske isn't hurting for money. I don't understand how the other half of the purse wasn't there because the club members weren't going to share the prize. Either way, Penske should have paid the price to avoid egg getting on IndyCar's face. 

13. I am going to defend Romain Grosjean here. The safety worker didn't have to grab Grosjean. Grosjean is a grown man. He was walking under his own power. There was no need to grab Grosjean. He wasn't in harm's way. He wasn't in peril. There is no need to be handsy. The safety workers are appreciated and do a great job. That doesn't mean they don't make mistakes. This isn't the first time they have gone overboard with grabbing drivers (see Will Power at Fontana). If a driver gets out of a car, is clearly fine and clearly angry, give the drivers some space. 

14. The big question from this weekend is what did IndyCar hope to get out of this event? It was an exhibition race taking place in front of at most 2,000 paying customers and maybe a smattering more Thermal Club members with friends and family. I doubt the "million dollar challenge" aspect is going to draw many more viewers than an average IndyCar race. 

So what is success for this event? 

If there is anything we have learned over the last 25 years is no single race is going to shift the tides and all of a sudden turn IndyCar into a cultural force with four or five million people tuning in every time an event is taking place. Thermal Club wasn't going to change that. 

The answer is success will be if IndyCar gets a new series partner out of this weekend or a team gets a sponsor that sticks around for four or five years. This was a business-to-business weekend hoping to sell the series to the rich. Nothing wrong with that but it might not be evident to the average fan how this weekend was a success. Remember that. 

15. And now there are... three weeks off until Long Beach. At least we had Thermal Club to break up the dead time. 

Morning Warm-Up: Thermal Club 2024

IndyCar's exhibition race from The Thermal Club will have a different format compared to normal race weekends. The field has already been split in half and will compete in heat races to begin Sunday's proceedings. The top six finishers from each heat race will advance to the final, where the winner of the 20-lap feature will earn a $500,000 prize.

The first ten-lap heat race features seven of the top ten finishers and nine of the top 12 finishers from the St. Petersburg season opener two weeks ago.

Felix Rosenqvist starts on pole position for the first heat race after the Swede ran a 98.5831-second lap in the group one qualifying session. This is the third consecutive year Rosenqvist is starting on pole position for the second event of the IndyCar season. He started on pole position the previous two years at Texas Motor Speedway, both of which counted toward the championship. Rosenqvist's seventh at St. Petersburg was Meyer Shank Racing's best finish in 24 races.

Scott McLaughlin was 0.0237 seconds off Rosenqvist and McLaughlin will start second. McLaughlin has finished on the podium in the last two races dating back to last season. The only other time McLaughlin has had consecutive podium finishes was in 2022. He went second, third and first between Nashville, Gateway and Portland.

Rinus Veekay was only 0.0452 seconds off and VeeKay will start third. VeeKay has not had a top five finish in his last 24 starts. The Dutchman was 10th at St. Petersburg, only his third top ten finish in his last 22 starts.

Christian Lundgaard made it four cars within a tenth of a second in heat race one's qualifying session. Lundgaard was 0.0563 seconds behind Rosenqvist. Lundgaard had the fastest time overall from the two test days at Thermal Club. 

Josef Newgarden rounds out the top five, 0.2095 seconds slower than the top time. Newgarden is coming off winning the season opener, his first victory on a road or street course since Road America in 2022. Three times has Newgarden won consecutive races. Only once were both races on a road and street course, that was in 2017 at Toronto and Iowa.

Will Power makes it an all-Team Penske row three. Power was 0.2225 seconds from pole position. Power led the opening 16 laps of IndyCar's most recent exhibition race in 2008 at Surfers Paradise before clipping a barrier to end his race. 

Romain Grosjean leads an all-Juncos Hollinger Racing row four and be the first driver starting outside the bubble for the main event. Grosjean was 0.2943 seconds behind Rosenqvist. In the last 14 races, Grosjean has one top ten finishes and six results outside the top twenty.

Agustín Canapino will start eighth, but he was 1.0163 seconds off Rosenqvist's pole-winning time. Canapino was 14th in the overall test results, faster than three Ganassi cars, two of three Rahal Letterman Lanigan racing cars, both Meyer Shank Racing cars, and both A.J. Foyt Racing entries. 

Scott Dixon ended up ninth in qualifying. Dixon was second in the 2008 Surfers Paradise race behind Ryan Briscoe. Dixon does have a non-championship race victory. He won the first heat race at 2013 Iowa weekend.

Santino Ferrucci starts tenth two weeks after he finished 11th at St. Petersburg. Ferrucci had one top fifteen finish on a road/street course throughout the entire 2023 season, an 11th at Long Beach. His best finish on a permanent road course was 16th at Road America and Portland.

Colton Herta was unable to put together a truly representative lap in qualifying, and Herta will start 11th. Three of Herta's seven career IndyCar victories have come in his home state of California. This event falls on the fifth anniversary of Colton Herta's first career victory in his third career start at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas.

Nolan Siegel takes 12th on the grid. Siegel participates in his first IndyCar event this weekend driving the #18 Honda for Dale Coyne Racing. Siegel won the Indy Lights season opener at St. Petersburg two weeks ago.

Kyle Kirkwood starts 13th. Kirkwood won at the 12 Hours of Sebring in the GTD Pro class last week driving the #14 VasserSullivan Lexus with Jack Hawksworth and Ben Barnicoat. Kirkwood did have a practice accident, but the damage was minor to the attenuator.

Sting Ray Robb rounds out the grid in 14th. Robb ended 26th after a mechanical issue led to his retirement at St. Petersburg. It was the 13th time in 18 starts Robb has finished outside the top twenty.

The first heat race will take place at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Álex Palou set the fastest time for heat two, as well as the fastest time between the two groups, with a lap at 98.5675 seconds. Palou was the fastest driver over Friday's test sessions from Thermal. The pole-sitter for the main event will be the heat winner with the better qualifying time. If Palou wins the second heat, he will start on pole position for the final.

Marcus Armstrong swept the front row for heat two for Chip Ganassi Racing, but Armstrong was 0.19 seconds slower than his teammate Palou. Armstrong's accident at St. Petersburg gave him his worst career finish in IndyCar in 27th.

Graham Rahal leapt up to third on the final lap of qualifying, 0.4048 seconds behind Palou. Rahal was ninth in the 2008 Surfers Paradise race. Rahal also won two of the Iowa heat races over 2012 and 2013. 

Linus Lundqvist makes its three Chip Ganassi Racing entries in the top four for heat two. Lundqvist was just over a half-second slower than Palou. Lundqvist was 21st in the combined test results.

Tom Blomqvist takes fifth on the grid, 0.5145 seconds behind Palou. Blomqvist ended up 17th at St. Petersburg and he completed all 100 laps, Blomqvist's first lead lap finish in his IndyCar career.

Pietro Fittipaldi made it a Honda sweep of the top six positions in the heat two starting grid. Fittipaldi was 0.5442 seconds off Palou. Fittipaldi's grandfather Emerson won the 1992 Marlboro Challenge from Nazareth Speedway, the penultimate exhibition race in IndyCar history prior to this weekend's festivities.

Alexander Rossi was not only the top Chevrolet qualifier, but the first of three consecutive Arrow McLaren entries on the grid, as Rossi has car #7 starting seventh for heat two. Since winning the 2019 Long Beach race, Rossi has not finished in the top five of the last seven California races.

Callum Ilott starts next to Rossi in eighth. Ilott was the fastest driver in Saturday morning's test session ahead of qualifying. He had the fourth-best combined time over the four test sessions.

Patricio O'Ward finds himself starting ninth. O'Ward has gone 609 days since his most recent IndyCar victory at Iowa. All three McLaren cars were in the top seven of the overall test. O'Ward was seventh.

Kyffin Simpson rounds out the top ten on the grid. Simpson was the top finishing rookie at St. Petersburg in 14th. He is the third-best starting rookie in heat two as five of the six rookies entered this weekend are in heat two.

Christian Rasmussen will start 11th. Rasmussen completed 91 laps over the two test sessions and he was 19th fastest in the test.

Colin Braun makes it 12th starting spot for both Dale Coyne Racing entries between the two heat races. Braun was faster than Siegel in the test, but the DCR cars were 25th and 26th respectively 

Marcus Ericsson had an accident in qualifying and that leaves Ericsson 13th on the grid. Ericsson ended up 25th after his car broke down 33 laps into St. Petersburg. In each of the previous three seasons, Ericsson has had exactly only one result outside the top twenty.

The second heat race is scheduled for a 1:05 p.m. ET start. The 20-lap final race will begin at 1:59 p.m. ET. The race will have a ten-minute intermission after lap ten. NBC's coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Track Walk: Thermal Club 2024

For the first time since 2008, the NTT IndyCar Series is hosting a standalone exhibition race along with its full complement of championship races. This event will take place at The Thermal Club in Palm Springs, California, a track that is more known for being the home of novice racers looking to have a good time with their personal sports cars or historic car purchases than professional series. This will be the first IndyCar race at the circuit, but not the first time the series has listed the track, as the 2023 preseason test was held at this facility in late-January last year.

Coverage

Time: Coverage begins at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday March 24 with green flag scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Kevin Lee will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule

Friday:

First Test Session: 12:00 p.m. ET (120 minutes)

Second Test Session: 5:00 p.m. ET (180 minutes)

Saturday:

Third Test Session: 12:00 p.m. ET (120 minutes)

Fourth Test Session: 4:00 p.m. ET (120 minutes)

Qualifying: 8:00 p.m. ET 
Sunday:
Race: 12:30 p.m. ET (40 laps split over two heat races and a main event)

* - All sessions will be available live on Peacock

The Event

The Thermal $1 Million Challenge is a non-championship event on the IndyCar schedule that will see the 27 drivers compete in a different format from a traditional race weekend. 

Festivities will begin on Thursday March 21 at a draw party, where the grid will be split into two groups and they will compete in those groups for the duration of the weekend. Friday March 22 will strictly be test day with another pair of test sessions on Saturday March 23. 

On Saturday evening, qualifying will take place where there will be two sessions for each group. This will determine the starting positions in the two heat races that will take place on Sunday March 24. Different from other IndyCar weekends is each driver will be allotted 40 seconds of push-to-pass that can be used during the session 

Heat races will start the action on Sunday. Each heat race is scheduled for ten laps or 20 minutes. Caution laps will not count but the clock will continue running. The top six finishers in each heat race will advance to the 20-lap main event. 

The main event will be split into two 10-lap segments. After the first segment, teams will be able to make adjustments to the race car and re-fuel the car. Teams will not be allowed to change tires during the race unless it is for an emergency, and the replacement must be from the qualifying set of tires. 

In the main event, each car will get 40 seconds of push-to-pass for each segment with the time resetting after the break. Caution laps will not count but there is not a time limit for the main event.

The winning car will receive $500,000 while second place will earn $350,000 and third gets $250,000. Fourth and fifth will receive $100,000 and $50,000 respectable. Every other driver from sixth through 12th and the drivers that did not advanced from the heat races will receive $23,000.

The Track

The Thermal Club opened in 2012 but the first of three circuit layouts on the property was not complete until 2014 when a 1.8-mile course was finished. 

Designed by Alan Wilson, who also designed Barber Motorsports Park, Thermal Club is a country club racetrack, where members pay to build villas on the property with access to the racetrack for track days. Along with a monthly $1,200 fee and $175,000 initiation fee, building a 30,000 square-foot home on the property leads to a membership cost around a $5 million. 

The Indianapolis Star's Nathan Brown reported last year Thermal Club had 210 members, 75 properties and 135 lots sold. Brown also reported club founder Tim Rogers hosted then-IndyCar CEO Randy Bernard at the ribbon-cutting ceremony more than a decade ago, and Rogers asked Roger Penske for advice on finding the right asphalt consultant when working on the property. 

The circuit IndyCar will race on the is 3.067-mile configuration. The 19-turn circuit hosted IndyCar's preseason test last season. This will be the biggest motorsports event to date held at Thermal Club. Previously, the facility hosted the 2020 SRO America Winter Invitational designed for bronze-level drivers from the various SRO-sanctioned series. 

Thermal Club is also home to a BMW Performance Driving School. 

What Do We Know?

All we have to base on this event is last year's preseason test at Thermal Club, which was done with heavier cars as the current technical regulations have the cars at a lower weight due to the absence of the hybrid system with an undetermined debut date set for sometime in 2024. 

At that test, Marcus Ericsson was the fastest driver with Chip Ganassi Racing and Ericsson's best lap was 98.4223 seconds (112.182 mph). Ericsson led a Honda 1-2-3 as Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's Christian Lundgaard was 0.1459 seconds back and Kyle Kirkwood rounded out the top three for then-Andretti Autosport, 0.3662 seconds off the top time.

The fastest Chevrolet came from Juncos Hollinger Racing, and it was Callum Ilott in fourth with a time 0.4181 seconds slower than Ericsson. Marcus Armstrong made it four Hondas in the top five, only five-thousandths of a second slower than Ilott. 

Will Power was the fastest Team Penske driver in sixth, and Power led a powerful back half of the top ten at the test. Álex Palou, Scott McLaughlin, then-Arrow McLaren driver Felix Rosenqvist, and Scott Dixon rounded out the top ten as 0.5539 seconds covered the top ten.

Josef Newgarden was just outside the top ten in 12th with Alexander Rossi, Romain Grosjean and Colton Herta following the driver who won the 2024 season opener at St. Petersburg. Patricio O'Ward was down in 16th, 0.7263 seconds slower than Ericsson. 

While Lundgaard was second at the 2023 preseason test, RLLR's other two drivers were 20th (Jack Harvey) and 23rd (Graham Rahal). Neither Ed Carpenter Racing nor A.J. Foyt Racing put a car in the top twenty. Meyer Shank Racing was 11th (Simon Pagenaud) and 18th (Hélio Castroneves). Dale Coyne Racing had David Malukas in 17th, but Sting Ray Robb was 24th. Agustín Canapino ended 21st in his first official IndyCar test session.

Exhibition History

As stated above, this is the first time IndyCar has had a standalone exhibition race since 2008. That was the reunification season and due to the late-timing of the Indy Racing League and Champ Car coming together, only a handful of events could have been incorporated into the championship. Long Beach and Edmonton were the only races that counted to the championship. Edmonton was the only race with a full field of cars as Long Beach was held the same weekend as Motegi, and featured only the Champ Car teams with the Panoz DP01 chassis while the IRL teams raced in Japan. 

The third Champ Car event that took place in 2008 was Surfers Paradise, as IndyCar chose to honor the contract for the event that dated back to 1991. The race was held on October 26, 2008, over a month and a half after the 2008 season finale was run at Chicagoland Speedway on September 8. 

This will unofficially be the 44th time since 1946 an exhibition race has been held during an IndyCar season. During that time, event such as the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb, Race of Two World from Monza and Marlboro Challenge are just a few of the exhibition races to take place during that time frame. 

With the Thermal Club race taking place on March 24, this will be the earliest exhibition race since 1946. The previous earliest was in March 31, 1946 when the Mike Benton Sweepstakes was held on the one-mile Lakewood Speedway just outside Atlanta. 

Bobby Unser leads all drivers in exhibition race victories with seven, all of which were at the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb. Jim Rathmann and Jimmy Bryan each won four exhibition races. Bryan won the 1955 and 1956 Indianapolis Sweepstakes held at the half-mile Williams Grove Speedway in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania and he won the first two races of the 1956 Race of Two Worlds held on the Monza oval. Rathmann swept all three races of the 1957 Race of Two Worlds and won the 1959 USAC/FIA Formula Libre Race held at Daytona International Speedway. Rathmann had more victories in exhibition races than championship races in his IndyCar career, having won three times, including his famous victory in the 1960 Indianapolis 500. 

Troy Ruttman also had more exhibition victories in his career than championship victories. Ruttman won the Indianapolis Sweepstakes from Williams Grove twice, 1950 and 1951, and he won the final race of the 1956 Race of Two Worlds. 

The only other drivers with multiple exhibition race victories are Jimmy Davies, Jud Larson and Michael Andretti. 

While this will be the first exhibition race since Ryan Briscoe won the 2008 Nikon Indy 300 from Surfers Paradise, there were non-championship races run in 2012 and 2013 at Iowa Speedway. In each of those two years, heat races were used to determine the starting grid for the Iowa IndyCar race. 

In 2012, each of the three races were 30 laps in length, and the field was split over the three races based on practice speed. The top eight cars were put in the third heat race and determined the first four rows while the remaining cars were split between odd and even positions from practice and determined the odd and even positions from row five on down. In 2013, the Iowa heat races were extended to 50 laps and the winners of the first two races transferred in to the final race to set the top ten positions. 

Graham Rahal, Tony Kanaan and Dario Franchitti split the three races in 2012 while Scott Dixon, Rahal and Hélio Castroneves split the three races in 2013.

Fast Facts

Five IndyCar races have taken place on March 24. The last two IndyCar races that have taken place on March 24 produced first-time winners. James Hinchcliffe's first career victory came on March 24, 2013 at St. Petersburg. Colton Herta's first career victory came on March 24, 2019 at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. 

This March 24 will be the 77th birthday for Roger Mears, and the 64th birthday for Scott Pruett. 

Five drivers have won an exhibition race in IndyCar but never won a championship race (Jimmy Wilburn, Duane Carter, Ed Elisian, Jackie Stewart and Ted Foltz). 

Wilburn won the first exhibition race held on March 31, 1946 at Lakewood Speedway. That race was two months prior to Wilburn's one and only official IndyCar start. He ran the 1946 Indianapolis 500 in an Alfa Romeo and retired after 52 laps due to an engine failure. Wilburn did run 35 laps in relief for Harry McQuinn in that race in a car that was classified in 13th.

Carter's best IndyCar finish was second in the 1953 season finale at the Arizona State Fairgrounds, over three years after Carter won the MGM Sweepstakes, an exhibition race held at Arlington Downs Speedway in Texas. 

Elisian's best finish was third at Langhorne in 1959, over three years after he won an exhibition race held at Dayton Speedway.

Stewart made only two starts in his Indycar career, sixth in the 1966 Indianapolis 500 and 18th in the 1967 Indianaplis 500. Stewart won at Fuji Speedway on October 9, 1966 ahead of Bobby Unser.

Foltz only ever competed at the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb. He made seven championship starts at Pikes Peak and eight non-championship appearances. He was second when the race counted toward the championship in three consecutive seasons, 1967-69, finishing behind Wes Vandervoort, Bobby Unser and Mario Andretti respectively. Foltz won the 1970 edition, the final year Pikes Peak was a non-championship round.

Scott Dixon, Graham Rahal and Will Power are the only drivers remaining from the 2008 Surfers Paradise race still competing full-time in IndyCar. 

When including the Iowa heat races from 2012 and 2013, the only other active full-time driver that competed in those along with Dixon, Rahal and Power is Josef Newgarden.

Team Penske and McLaren are the only active teams to have won an exhibition IndyCar race.

McLaren won the 1975 World Series of Auto Racing event at Trenton with Johnny Rutherford.

The World Series of Auto Racing was a four-legged event that began on October 19-20, 1974 with a sprint car and midget car race on Pocono Raceway's 3/4-mile oval with an IndyCar race and USAC Stock Car race concluding the series on April 25, 1975. Each race paid points to the top seven finishers (9-6-5-4-3-2-1).

Twelve drivers were invited to participate in the World Series of Auto Racing (A.J. Foyt, Billy Vukovich, Jimmy Caruthers, Pancho Carter, Bobby Unser, Jim McElreath, Johnny Parsons, Johnny Rutherford, Roger McCluskey, Wally Dallenbach, Steve Krisiloff and Lloyd Ruby).

A.J. Foyt and Pancho Carter split the sprint car race and midget car race respectively at Pocono. Foyt won the stock car race. Ruby and Dallenbach did not run the stock car race. For the IndyCar race, Gordon Johncock, Tom Sneva, John Martin and Dick Simon replaced Carter, Caruthers, Ruby and Unser). 

Foyt won the series with 24 points after finishing fourth in the IndyCar race. Rutherford was second on 14 points while Carter and Unser finished tied for third on 12 points. 

The only driver to have won an exhibition race and the Indianapolis 500 in the same season was Rodger Ward in 1959. Ward won the Indianapolis Sweepstakes at Williams Grove about six weeks after his first Indianapolis 500 victory. 

Five times has a driver won an exhibition race and the championship in the same season (Jimmy Bryan 1956-57, Rodger Ward 1959, Bobby Rahal 1987, Michael Andretti 1991).

Predictions

Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, Álex Palou, Scott Dixon, Patricio O'Ward, Marcus Ericsson, Colton Herta, Kyle Kirkwood, Callum Ilott, Christian Lundgaard and Romain Grosjean will be the 12 drivers that make the main event. None of the drivers that start outside the top eight in either heat race make the main event. There will be fewer than three combined lead changes between the heat races and main event. The gap between sixth and seventh in each heat race will be greater than a second. Alexander Rossi will give an interview where he is clearly indifferent to everything that is going on. As for a winner? Scott McLaughlin. Sleeper: Callum Ilott.