Patricio O'Ward dominated this race over the first 50 laps. This was shades of Texas 2023 where O'Ward had nearly lapped the entire field through the first two-thirds of the race. O'Ward started on a new set of alternate tires and he was gone. No one was close while the rest of the field was left fighting with themselves, but this was a full race.
Palou held ground in third behind Christian Lundgaard. It didn't matter that he was losing a little time on the primary tire. If anything, the middle two stints were a warning. Palou wasn't sluggish on the primary tire. He was comfortable. When it came time to the final stint, Palou could let it rip.
After the final round of pit stops, Palou was over ten seconds behind O'Ward with 16 laps remaining, and proceeded to rundown the Mexican driver and was leading with nine laps remaining. The tires were the deciding factor, but only because they were underneath Palou. If you put any of the other 26 drivers on the grid in Palou's situation with 16 laps to go, maybe two or three others could have won this race, and that is generous to say two or three.
Palou went from ten seconds back to ten seconds up at the checkered flag. That is brilliance at the highest level. Barry Wanser deserves recognition for how this race was called and Palou has the talent to make such a strategy work. For the first time since 2020, a driver has opened a season with consecutive victories. The batting average of those drivers turning two wins on the spin into championships is ridiculously high. It is only March, spring a few days old, but get the stencil out now and prepare the Astor Cup accordingly.
1B. There are some rumors about a new Formula One team being interested in an IndyCar driver. The only reasonable option is Álex Palou. Hiring any other driver would be foolish.
2. Hindsight is 20/20, but O'Ward only using one set of alternate tires might have been the deciding factor. The alternate tire was the better tire today, even when worn. O'Ward went with three new sets of primary tires over the final three stints. Would have using one used set of alternate tire to been enough to hold off Palou after the final stop? I think there is a good chance it would have been.
Palou started on used alternate tires and O'Ward drove away but when you consider O'Ward had over a ten-second gap after that final pit stop, I don't know if Palou could have made that up if O'Ward used the alternates. It would have been close, but one set of used alternate tires could have been the difference.
3. This was Zak Brown's nightmare. After McLaren went 1-2 in the Chinese Grand Prix with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, halfway through this race it looked like Arrow McLaren was set for a 1-2 at Thermal Club. It looked like a victory was a guarantee even if it wasn't a sweep of the top two spots. Suddenly, Álex Palou, a man the McLaren organization has sued for about $23 million to recoup investments, spoiled the whole damn party. Somewhere in Shanghai, an American is having a sour Monday morning.
4. Christian Lundgaard did round out the podium for McLaren. A 2-3 day isn't quite a 1-3 or a 1-2. Same number of trophies are brought home; total square inches much less than anticipated. But Lundgaard had a phenomenal weekend.
Both McLarens ended on primary tires. Lundgaard went used alternate to new alternates in the first two stints. That kind of made his bed. With this being a three-stop race, it isn't even hindsight that was saying end on the alternates. Ten of the top 12 finishers finished on the alternates. The only two that didn't were the McLarens.
Through two race weekends, the Dane has matched O'Ward, and McLaren finally has a 1-2 combo that can do some damage in IndyCar. We are going to see more stout days for Lundgaard this season.
5. Rounding out the top five were Colton Herta and Felix Rosenqvist. As much as we can say the alternates were the right choice, it wasn't clear as day. Herta ended on new alternates while Rosenqvist used alternates on his final three stint, the last two were used. In the closing laps, Rosenqvist was closing on Herta. Herta held on by 0.5575 seconds to finish fourth.
Kyle Kirkwood spent much of this race in fourth. Kirkwood ended on used alternates and he stopped on the same lap, lap 48, as Rosenqvist for that final set. Rosenqvist ended up fifth and pushing for forth. Kirkwood dropped to eighth and spent the final half-dozen laps running laps in the one-minute and 50-second range.
Some teams had the balance to get the most of the alternates for an entire stint. Others clearly struggled at the very end.
Credit to Herta and Rosenqvist for making it work. Both likely want more than fourth and fifth because while in the top five, neither were in the picture for victory. There is plenty of ground to make up.
6. It was a caution-free race and Will Power went from 21st to sixth. The one blessing in disguise to not advancing from the first round of qualifying is the extra set of new alternate tires. Power's final three stints were new alternates, used alternates and new alternates. He was making hay over the entire race but especially in the final 20 laps. Power still has it and the strategy was maximizing the tires at this team's disposal.
7. Marcus Armstrong needed to finish seventh today. If he doesn't have the suspension issue at St. Petersburg, Armstrong would have finished in the top ten. Meyer Shank Racing showed good speed again and Armstrong had to convert it into something. Starting and finishing seventh is all you can ask for. He didn't stand out today, but sometimes you just need to get a result on the board. Armstrong did that.
8. No one suffered more at the end of a stint on alternate tires than Kyle Kirkwood in the run to the checkered flag. It was kind of stunning seeing how off he was in those closing laps. We didn't see many others struggle that much late on used alternate tires. It really looked like alternate tires that were 18-20 laps old were still slightly better than primary tires at the same age or at least on level footing. I don't know if there was a greater problem. Eighth is not an accurate representation of Kirkwood's day.
9. I am not sure ninth is an accurate representation of Alexander Rossi's day either. He also struggled late on the alternate tire. The good thing is Ed Carpenter Racing produced a race car that could run in the top ten all day on a road course, and Rossi looked comfortable all day. Until the very end, but still, Rossi wasn't dropping back mid-race and then trying to claw spots back. They are close but still have some work to do.
10. Scott Dixon went from 11th to tenth, but he did more than that because Dixon started on the primary tire and dropped to like 18th or 19th in the opening stint. He ended with three consecutive stints on the alternate tire, but only the final stint was on a new set. That led to the charge into the top ten. It salvaged a day more than anything else.
11. If it wasn't for Palou's final stint and Will Power going from 21st to sixth, Graham Rahal would have a strong case for drive of the day. He went 18th to 11th, but he was running better than that as his middle two stints were on new alternate tires. He ended on a used set and that might have cost him a top ten. Rahal was about 4.5 seconds slower than Dixon on the final lap of the race. If Rahal runs the used alternates a stint early, you could argue he would have been in the same spot, but I think the argument should be to end on the best tires you got. That seems more advantageous than ending on a used set.
12. To bolster Ed Carpenter Racing's confidence, Christian Rasmussen was 12th, and he ended on a set of new alternate tires. Other than the final stint and making up some ground, Rasmussen wasn't all that present in this race, but he ended on a good impression.
13. I don't know what Josef Newgarden was doing using two sets of new alternates mid-race and then finishing on new primary tires. My only guess is Newgarden didn't have faith in used alternates, and that might have been a good choice as he was still running below a minute and 50 seconds in the closing laps. It felt like Newgarden hit 12th and then couldn't run better than that.
14. For a driver that lost his hybrid early, 14th for Santino Ferrucci is an outstanding day. When that was announced, Ferrucci was running just outside the top ten, and we had just gotten pass the first pit stop. It felt like he was in for a long day. This might not have been the best possible outcome, but it felt like it was going to be much worse than this.
15. As for everyone outside the top 14, I don't know if there is much to say about any of them.
Kyffin Simpson kept it on the track and finished 15th, we didn't see Conor Daly once as he finished 16th, Rinus VeeKay didn't have a good second stint on the primary tire and he lost ground to 17th.
David Malukas and Nolan Siegel feel like missed opportunities. Malukas started inside the top 12, started on new alternate tires and then blew it on primary tires on the second stint. He ended on primary tires as well in 18th position.
Siegel was trapped behind Ferrucci during the second stint when Ferrucci was on primary tires with no hybrid system and Siegel had new alternates. Siegel could not make a move and others pounced on him. And then he made this a four-stop race as he only did ten laps on used alternates before primary tires for 14 laps and then one more run on used alternates. His strategy was garbage, and it led to a 19th-place result. That seems likes a team that got stuck and couldn't stop making mistakes.
16. Devlin DeFrancesco spun Scott McLaughlin before we even got to the green flag. DeFrancesco had a penalty, though I think 20th was the best he was going to do regardless.
Marcus Ericsson lost spots running wide on the opening lap and then spun after his first pit stop, losing more ground. Two stints on primary tires, one of which was used, in the middle of the race did not help Ericsson's cause. Twenty-first is a brutal result.
17. I am going to cover both Prema cars here. Robert Shwartzman had a slow first pit stop. Shwartzman started well, but I think the team played it too conservative with two stints on new primary tires in the middle of the race. The team only ran qualifying and the warm-up. It didn't have the data to trust if it could do three stints on the alternates. For a team in its second race with nothing to lose, it should have just bit the bullet.
Callum Ilott ran into the back of someone at the start and had to stop for a front wing change after lap one. It cost him a lap early and it was a 22-26 day for Prema.
18. Sting Ray Robb was out there and finished 23rd. If you forgot about him, you were not alone.
I don't know what happened to Louis Foster that led him to finish 24th after starting tenth. There might be a reason for that. We will get to it in a moment.
Jacob Abel. Two starts, two races finishing off the lead lap, and a drive-through penalty after his first stop did not help.
19. Oh, Scott McLaughlin. Started 25th only to be spun before the green flag and then the hybrid overheating was a crushing outing at Thermal. This is the second consecutive year McLaughlin has finished last in the second race of the season. Last year, he recovered and had a brilliant season. I bet he wasn't hoping not to have to repeat last season.
20. Thermal produced a good race, and last year showed the potential. With how quick tires wore down, a full race with a full field of cars and not 12-14 cars sets itself up for stellar race. Palou and Lundgaard traded passes for five consecutive corners. Palou erased a ten-second gap in no time. There were battles throughout the field. This wasn't a processional race by any means. It got strung out at the front at times, but this being a caution-free race with the variety of tire strategy made it exciting.
This was no different than a race we have seen at Road America or Mid-Ohio or Laguna Seca. I don't know if the alternate/primary balance was too much in favor of the alternate, but Firestone will figure it out. Either way, we saw a race where teams had to really choose what tire to use. This was a three-stop race for everyone. Perhaps a little better primary tire opens up the pit windows. It was three stops but everyone could only make it 18 to 20 laps. I don't know if IndyCar wants it so a car can do 22 laps comfortably and make this a two-stop vs. three-stop race, but it would add another dimension that would not hurt.
21. I feel like I missed a lot of this race, and we all did because the broadcast went down for 20 minutes. It is unclear if it was just the television compound or the entire Thermal Club facility. Reports on the ground was the media center was fine throughout the 20-minute period. Timing and scoring did stay up.
Things happen. If you recall NBC's first race on network television at St. Petersburg in 2019, part of that race experienced some technical issues. As technologically advanced as we have become, teething issues persist. They have been a little more noticeable over the first two races than anyone would like, and there is no way to spin losing a race broadcast for 20 minutes into a positive. The only positive is it was 20 minutes in the middle of the race and to the final 20 minutes.
22. We have three more weeks to iron things out until Long Beach.
