Musings From the Weekend: Problem Solved, Problems Remain

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The wait is over. Dale Coyne Racing confirmed Romain Grosjean will fill out its driver lineup for the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season. It was great timing as IndyCar's official test occurs this week from Phoenix Raceway. Coyne also confirmed the return of the #19 entry for Dennis Hauger. Meanwhile, Formula E had a doubleheader go unnoticed. Michael Jordan has won the Daytona 500, thanks to Tyler Reddick. A kangaroo dominated the stories out of Bathurst. Formula One testing resumed in Bahrain, and most drivers are not happy. However, there was some big news out IndyCar that should clam nerves, but does leave a lot left unanswered.

Problem Solved, Problems Remain

After a year of nervous anticipation, IndyCar has secured its current engine manufacturers in a multiyear agreement. Chevrolet and Honda will continue in IndyCar starting in 2027 and will remain through the next set of engine regulations, which begin for the 2028 season with the introduction of a 2.4-liter, twin-turbocharged V6 hybrid engine. 

Remaining in IndyCar has come with a perk for both makes as starting in 2028, both Chevrolet and Honda will receive a charter entry to be used as a factory entry on the grid. Each manufacturer will be able to use that charter with whichever team it wishes, expect for teams that already enter the maximum of three charter entries. In terms of whether these charters are coming from the existing allotment of 25 charters or if two will be added and the total number of charters will increase remains to be clarified. 

Everyone in IndyCar can breath easier after it felt like Honda was on the verge of exiting the series and putting everyone in a difficult position of needing to find a replacement to maintain the grid size, however, while this contract extension solves a problem and it keeps status quo, this agreement does not address the limitations of having two engine partners that have stressed this series. 

This is the first move, keep the ones you got, and it was important to address. IndyCar is in a better position now that Chevrolet and Honda are sticking around, but it does not change that both manufacturers have been at the limit of support when it comes to entrants, and now each manufacturer will effectively have another entrant to support in 2028 with their chartered factory entry. If anything, this deal has created more work for both groups. 

We are entering the 15th season of the current regulation, and this will be the 14th consecutive season with just Chevrolet and Honda involved after one infamous season with Lotus as a third manufacturer in 2012. The worrying thing about IndyCar is it doesn't appear to have the might to make a significant move to draw in an additional manufacturer or two. That is what we need to see now. The worrying thing is this deal feels like it takes care of those who are around, and it makes it feel like it is more unlikely to growth the manufacturer support within the series. 

IndyCar has taken care of Chevrolet and Honda with this agreement. Both manufacturers have equity in the grid. It will reap whatever is beneficial from the charter system. Both will be eligible for Leaders Circle prize money, which is a drop in a bucket, but those were drops neither Chevrolet nor Honda were eligible for receiving previously, and the slice of the Leaders Circle pie increased a little more this past offseason with it believed IndyCar will payout nearly $1.7 million per entry. 

But the sweetheart deal Chevrolet and Honda received likely is not going to be extended to a new manufacturer that will likely need it and expect it, and IndyCar has put itself in a box with this decision. 

Why would a new manufacturer join IndyCar if it was not given the same charter spot on the grid? 

The introduction of the charter size was supposed to limit the grid size and increase the value of a spot in IndyCar by making it scarce to compete full-time. If a third manufacturer is interested, it will expect a charter entry like Chevrolet and Honda has received, and soon the grid is up to 28 chartered entries, three more than originally awarded and the grid would now be larger than the 27-car limit that was imposed last season on all races outside the Indianapolis 500. Then what happens if a fourth manufacturer is interested?

It is unsurprising IndyCar put itself in a pickle. This is IndyCar after all. The path to hell is paved with good intentions. 

IndyCar has set a precedent that it will take care of manufacturers to a higher level and give them effectively a stake in the grid with an entry, and that now must be expanded to others who wish to enter the series. The manufacturer total will not increase if only Chevrolet and Honda have chartered entries because of loyalty while anyone else wishing to enter will be left out. This isn't a social club where legacy should be a perk. A professional motorsports series should be working equally with its partners and making sure they all receive the same support.

If it is unwilling to give a new manufacturer the same love it just gave Chevrolet and Honda then the grid is going to remain with two manufacturers for years to come, and the same strain both groups have experienced with each supporting a dozen or more full-time entries will remain as well, though it is something both Chevrolet and Honda would like IndyCar to address. 

An additional manufacturer would do a lot more to help Chevrolet and Honda than a factory entry for each. Both groups have been expressing a desire to do less in IndyCar, and both should be praised for all that it has done as IndyCar has grown, especially over the last six seasons. There should be some concern that this deal IndyCar has given suggests the series is fine with keeping the status quo when the series needs growth. 

We are fortunate Honda has decided to stick around. An exit for the manufacturer felt more imminent than ever before in the Japanese manufacturers' three-plus decades in American open-wheel racing. Who is to say in five or six years or whenever this current deal is up, Honda doesn't decide to walkaway after almost 40 years in IndyCar? Honda is at the limit. It has achieved all that you can in IndyCar. It has won many Indianapolis 500s, but at some point it must be acknowledged that the brand recognition Honda has from racing in IndyCar has maxed out and there is nothing more it can gain competing in the series. Either IndyCar must grow substantially that leads to a greater return on investment for Honda or an additional partner must come in to alleviate the pressure of running half the grid in the next few seasons if it hopes to avoid the stress it just faced over the last year.

If it doesn't do that, then what?

IndyCar is keeping itself in the same position it has been, but for long-term health of the series, it must find more support and more interested parties. 

The last year should have been a wakeup call because in the year 2026, I don't think IndyCar can find a single manufacturer willing to support 24 full-time cars and 33 cars for the Indianapolis 500. It definitely would not be a sign of strength to be back down to one manufacturer supplying all the engines. That would be a terrible blow to the series that would hurt every team and driver competing. IndyCar shouldn't wait until it hemorrhaging to take care of its health and make sure it is best set for the future. 

It solved a problem securing Chevrolet and Honda beyond 2026, but in the next year or so, it would be wise to make substantial ground in finding an additional engine partner or two to make sure we are not in this same spot in the not-so-distant future.

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Tyler Reddick, but did you know...

The #888 Mercedes-AMG Team GMR Mercedes-AMG of Maro Engel, Mikaël Grenier and Maxime Martin won the Bathurst 12 Hour.

Austin Hill won the Grand National Series race. Chandler Smith won the Truck race. 

Pascal Wehrlein and António Félix da Costa split the Jeddah ePrix.

Eli Tomac won the Supercross race from Seattle, his third victory of the season. Haiden Deegan won the 250cc race, his fifth consecutive victory.

Elfyn Evans won the 73rd Rally Sweden

Coming Up This Weekend

NASCAR moves up to Atlanta.

Supercars open its season at Sydney Motorsports Park.

World Superbike opens its season a little further south at Phillip Island.

Supercross will be in Arlington.

2026 NASCAR Season Preview

A new NASCAR season is upon us, and later tonight we will know the starting grid for the season-opening Daytona 500, and so will conclude an offseason that saw a great number of changes away from the racetrack. 

Permanent charters, a championship format change and slight changes to horsepower and aero packages all sprung from a busy winter, the most notable of which is the championship format reverting to something previously used. We haven't even mentioned the changes to the schedule. Mexico City, Chicago and the Charlotte roval are gone with a temporary race on Naval Base Coronado use outside San Diego scheduled for June. Chicagoland Speedway returns after a six-year hiatus. A second oval race is returning to Charlotte Motor Speedway. Meanwhile, the All-Star Race moves to Dover International Speedway with North Wilkesboro set to host a championship race for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Gone are the three-race rounds with eliminations and returning is a ten-race aggregate to decide the champion with 16 drivers competing for the title after the regular season concludes. The 16 drivers will be based on points. Win-and-in is gone. To compete for a championship, a driver must be in the top 16 of the championship after the first 26 races. 

The championship change shakes up the identity of the Cup Series and it alters how races and the entire season are approached. A driver 27th in the championship is not one victory away from a playoff spot. It is no longer wide open until the very last lap of the regular season. Simultaneously, a victory is not a golden ticket assuring a team a better pay day and a chance to be racing for something special as summer turns to autumn. 

With these changes, come a lot of questions ahead of the 2026 season. 

How will the season look different?

Victories do not carry the same weight they once did because a driver cannot go from the bottom to the top in a blink. If a driver is 21st in the championship, one victory will not turn him into a championship-eligible driver. To make the postseason, he will need to still get to 16th. A victory will be a consolation prize, one that will be cherished, but it does not outshine the true form over an entire season.

With a clear target of making the top 16 to make the playoffs, it should raise the bar of competition. There will be greater incentive to get the most out of every race. A team cannot wait for the drafting tracks or the road courses to try and steal a victory. Making the playoffs will require decent form across all disciplines. Some teams are going to struggle, but a great number of teams will be shooting for more each week to get as many points as possible, and points matter more. They are the only thing that matters to making the playoffs. 

That should change how races are run, especially since stage points still exist. Teams would previously decline stage points in strategy decisions to race for the victory. At certain tracks or in certain circumstances, teams would make a pit before a stage break from a top position only to be back at the front after the stage break because the rest of the field would stop and that team would inherit the lead. However, is turning down ten points for a potential stage victory worth it in this system? Points determine the playoff drivers, not victories. Those ten points go further than a race victory on its own. However, combined with a race victory, stage points will lift the top teams. 

The base points total for first position increased to 55 points. Winning both stages and the race could earn a team 75 points, 76 points if that team also scores fastest lap. A victory has never been worth more. There is a good chance a race winner could earn more than double what the second-place finisher earns in some races. Even if a driver scores 75 points, the most a second-place finisher can earn is 54 points (35 points for second, 18 points for finishing second in both states and a point for fastest lap). Second is only worth 72% of a victory. Under the previous points system, second-place could be worth as much as 93.333% of a victory. 

For well over a decade, NASCAR said it emphasized winning races but had systems where proportionately, winning was still not great enough and second on down was worth too much. Now it has a system where consistently winning races will separate those teams from the rest of the field. 

Who does this change benefit?

It benefits consistent drivers. Some of the top drivers will be fine. Kyle Larson, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano will all still be where they usually are. The cleanest of those drivers will excel the most. They will not have a pair of bad races in October crush their championship hopes because of the system.

There is still a reset after 26 races, and some drivers will lose an advantage while others will get a boost. The door will be open for someone else to rise, but instead of only needing strategic victories to be champion, a driver must be decent over ten races. 

Previously, a victory was all that mattered. If a driver won the first race in a round, he could finish last in the next two and it didn't change a thing. That is no longer the case. A victory cannot hide bipolar results. If a team is finishing outside the top twenty on a regular basis that will speak louder than a victory or two in the season. 

Who is in for a greater challenge?

I would say about a third of the grid had their playoff hopes squashed before the calendar even flipped to February. Everyone has the same target to shoot for, but 16th is quite out of reach for a fair number of teams. 

In the last four seasons, the best championship finish for a Legacy Motor Club driver is 19th. The best of three Front Row Motorsports drivers in 2025 was 27th in the championship. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has finished outside the top twenty in the championship in six of the last seven seasons. In the other season, he was 16th because he won the Daytona 500 and qualified for the playoffs. Michael McDowell has never finished in the top twenty of the championship in a season where he did not win a race. Tyler Dillon's season is hopeless before it even begins.

Rick Ware Racing and Haas Factory Team are not going to stumble into a playoff spot thanks to a victory. Even Richard Childress Racing is an outside shot for the top 16. 

There are drivers and teams that are just not going to be good enough to make the top 16, and nothing is going to change that over the course of the season. It is over before it has even begun.

There will be drivers who need to be better.

Shane van Gisbergen was the first driver to come to mind when the format change was announced. One road course victory will not secure a playoff spot, but van Gisbergen's five victories would have been enough to make the playoffs last year had this system been introduced in 2025. 

That shows how much dominating races matters, but it also shows how much it will take for the likes of van Gisbergen to make it. There are also fewer road course races this season and there are no road course races in the final half of the season. Sonoma is the 18th race and that is when we will know truly how great van Gisbergen's postseason hopes are. It is unlikely he can bank on four victories getting him through, but that means he must improve and get his average finish of 21st down to something around 16th or 17th and combined with a pair of victories or a trio of victories, it could be enough to get him into the top 16.

The Rich Get Richer

The top teams are still going to be at the top. We already saw that last season. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing split the top four drivers in the championship and took six of the top eight with Team Penske's Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney taking the other two spots. 

While the elimination formats combined with the current generation of car allowed for other teams to be in the mix for race victories and even contend for championships, we have been seeing NASCAR's biggest teams pull away. Introduce a system that rewards consistency more while also increasing what a race victory pays out, and the teams at the top are going to move further away from the rest of the field. 

There is still a chance 23XI Racing with Tyler Reddick can be competitive and break into the top group. Trackhouse or RFK Racing can still have good seasons and make championship runs, but it will require true speed and not fortunately timed results to be a threat deep into the season. 

Are the postseason drivers already set?

Four Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, four Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and three Team Penske Fords account for 11 drivers. If they all make the playoffs, that leaves little room for others. 

However, Joe Gibbs Racing has seen Ty Gibbs fail to make the playoffs in two of his three Cup seasons. Austin Cindric has made the playoffs in three of his four seasons, but in each of those Cindric won a race and he has never had ten top ten finishes in a season.

It is safe to say at least nine spots are claimed before a lap is run. 23XI Racing will be competitive and have at least one car, if not both cars in the top 16. Trackhouse has kept Ross Chastian in and around the top ten, and if van Gisbergen wins enough, he could make it. RFK Racing should benefit the most as Chris Buescher was tenth in the championship when the regular season ended last year, but the lack of a victory kept him out of the playoffs.

It is still going to be interesting for 16th, but there are a handful of drivers that just need to achieve the bare minimum to be a title hopeful. 

What counts as a surprise?

Kyle Busch turning it around and getting back into the top 16. 

Spire Motorsports rising and becoming a contender with Carson Hocevar. 

Josh Berry running well enough to make the top 16 after only making the playoffs thanks to a victory that looked more flukey as the 2025 season went along. 

A.J. Allmendinger having great consistency with a road course victory or two putting him in a playoff spot. 

All of these are not impractical to happen in the 2026 season but none of these we think will happen.

Could we see a championship clinched early?

This crossed my mind when the format was announced last month. Thanks to stage points, the 2026 season is likely the greatest chance we will see a championship decided with a race to spare since 2003. 

If a driver is truly dominant, especially in those final ten races, the championship could be decided with a race to spare. When considering how Corey Heim ran in the Truck Series last year and how Connor Zilisch did in the Grand National Series, if a driver picks up four or five dominant victories and is scoring a lot of stage points, he could enter the final race with a 62-point lead and not even need to turn a lap in the Homestead season finale. 

All these changes have been made in hopes of keeping the championship compelling to the final race. NASCAR just might have made a tweak that sees the return of a dead rubber finale. What would it do then? 

We will find out in 38 weeks.

2026 IndyCar Team Preview: Chip Ganassi Racing

Eighteen days from the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season opener, and we move to a team who enters this season looking for its 18th IndyCar championship. This would be its fourth consecutive and sixth in the last seven seasons. Chip Ganassi Racing has never been stronger, and it has previously had some historically dominant periods. 

Nothing has changed. Drivers are the same. Management is the same. It gained a new and notable sponsor. Other than that, Chip Ganassi Racing looks the same, and with no changes it is difficult to believe much will be different this season.

At A Glance... Wash, rinse, repeat

What do you want to hear about Chip Ganassi Racing? We know what this team is capable of, and it will likely achieve it again. Chip Ganassi Racing has won five of the last six championships. It has the best driver in IndyCar, and one of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history. It actually has two of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history.

What do think will be different? Ganassi is going to win races, it is going to have two strong drivers, Álex Palou is probably going to win the championship, and we are going to repeat what we have been saying for the entire 2020s. 

I don't know what to write about this group. Nothing changed. What is going to change now? Ganassi isn't going to struggle. It is not going to get lost and start making mistakes. The speed isn't going to disappear. Palou is going to be quick everywhere. Scott Dixon is going to be in Palou's shadow to a point where everyone will think he has lost a step but Dixon is still finishing fifth, and no one really cares about Kyffin Simpson's results. Simpson's results are not a reflection of the Ganassi organization's ability.

There are no surprises around this group. It isn't Team Penske, which is bringing in a young driver with a spotty track record to a group that has underground some managerial changes and is coming off its worst season in a quarter-century. It isn't Andretti Global, which has brought in a great driver but one who is over 40 and it is a team that largely under performs. It isn't Arrow McLaren, which is constantly changing drivers and is never satisfied. It isn't Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, which is constantly struggling to find speed. Then there is the other half of the grid that seldom win. Until Ganassi shows it has a weakness, it is pointless trying to look for one.

A team needs to beat Ganassi, not impossible, but not something we have seen on a regular basis for quite some time. Can any team do that? Team Penske has done it, but it has been a minute. It has been a little longer for Andretti Global. Arrow McLaren could do it. We need to see it though, and it has proven to be quite difficult.

Until we see it, expect Ganassi to remain on top. 

2025 Chip Ganassi Racing Review

Wins: 9 (St. Petersburg, Thermal Club, Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Road America, Mid-Ohio, Iowa II, Laguna Seca, Milwaukee)

Poles: 6 (Barber, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Mid-Ohio, Iowa II, Laguna Seca, Milwaukee)

Championship Finishes: 1st (Álex Palou), 3rd (Scott Dixon), 17th (Kyffin Simpson)

Kyffin Simpson - #8 Sunoco Honda

Numbers to Remember:

6: Top ten finishes in 2025

10: Full-time drivers in which Simpson had more top ten finishes than in 2025

4.29411: Improvement in average finish from 2024 (19.47058) to 2025 (15.17647)

What is the best possible outcome?

An improvement and making a push for the top ten in the championship. 

Simpson did look better in his sophomore season, and he had a few races with really good pace. It netted him some strong results. From no top ten finishes to six is a big jump. There were still a few weak weekends and it shows there is still room for improvement. If he can get up to eight or nine top ten finishes, it would be a good step and it will likely see him in the conversation for the championship top ten. It would definitely get him in the top fifteen.

What is realistic?

Simpson's best results came due to some fortunate cautions and strategy in 2025. Take away his fifth at Detroit and third at Toronto and he is likely better than 21st in the championship, but he would not have been as good as 17th. I don't know if he is going to get a top five finish this season. He had three last season, but his overall pace does not suggest that will be a norm for him. He can still be competitive and get a half-dozen top ten finishes, though those finishes will likely be eighths, ninths and tenths. 

Scott Dixon - #9 PNC Bank Honda

Numbers to Remember:

2: Fast Six appearances in 2025 (St. Petersburg and Indianapolis 500)

12.647: Average starting position in 2025, his worst since 2005 (12.235)

3: Seasons in the last four with an average starting position worse than tenth

2: Seasons from 2001 to 2021 where Dixon had an average starting position worse than tenth. Along with 2005, the other season was his rookie year in 2001 (11.75)

What is the best possible outcome?

Dixon is a six-time championship. Enough said.

To expand on that, Dixon needs to fine a way to beat his teammate, which is trying to get from fourth to first in Dixon's case, and it wasn't long ago the New Zealander was the driver to beat at Chip Ganassi Racing. Few can match Dixon's consistency, and if Dixon remains consistent with any slip up from Palou, it could be Dixon controlling the championship even if he isn't winning eight or nine races. Dixon can be champion with three victories and 13 top five finishes. Few are going to be able to match that. If one of those three victories was the Indianapolis 500, it would be the cherry on top.

What is realistic?

It is realistic Dixon does not win a race this season. 

Let's just cover that straight up. Dixon could fail to win a race this season and it not be a disaster. You know why? Because Dixon was about six laps away from not winning a race n 2025 if Palou did not fall off the road from the lead at Mid-Ohio. Even if Palou had remained on the track, Dixon still would have finished second in that race and he still would have been third in the championship. A streak would have ended but in no way would it suggest Dixon had lost something. It just wasn't his year. 

It was only three years ago we went into the final four races and Dixon did not have a victory. He then won three of the final four. Just based on Dixon's consistency and the longevity of it, he is good enough to be the best for at least one race. It could be better than that and he could pull in multiple victories.

In the last 21 seasons, Dixon has finished in the top three of the championship 16 times. He has not finished worse than sixth since 2005. We know what Dixon can do.

Álex Palou - #10 DHL Honda

Numbers to Remember:

12: Palou was first in 12 statistical categories in the 2025 season (Victories, podium finishes, top five finishes, top ten finishes, pole positions, Fast Six appearances, Fast 12 appearances, races led, laps led, fastest laps, average starting position, average finishing position)

3.352: Average starting position in 2025

 

4.0588: Average finishing position in 2025

98: Career starts

What is the worst possible outcome?

We know the best possible outcome for Palou. He has won three consecutive championships, but what is Palou's worst possible outcome for the season? How bad could 2026 be? 

That is much harder to answer.

He is going to win at least one race. The worst possible 2026 season for Palou at Chip Ganassi Racing still includes one victory. It likely includes two. He isn't going to slow down, and he will likely still be a regular podium finisher. Five podium finishes feels like the lowest possible total for Palou. He is going to get two or three on road courses. He is going to get another two or three on street courses. Even on ovals he is likely good for one podium finish if not more. He could get two podium finishes in each discipline and we could view that as a dreadful season. 

A worst possible outcome includes some unfortunate results, which have largely been avoided in Palou's IndyCar career. This season would need to be a market correction of sorts. Something that looks like a Josef Newgarden season in recent years. Bad pit stops, collateral damage when other cars spin or miss a braking point, maybe a mechanical issue or two. There would need to be a slump, a genuine slump and not just one bad result because David Malukas' talent is limited. A three-race run outside the top ten with at least a pair of those outside the top fifteen would be a shock when it comes to Palou. 

However, even in Palou's worst possible season, it is probably still a pretty strong season. He might have four bad races, five tops, but it would still include a dozen good races.

The worst possible outcome is dropping to sixth or seventh. He has only one victory, he still has five podium finishes, but those four or five bad races take down his points total. A few early retirements mean he is finishing outside the top twenty and scoring single-digit points. While he has a bunch of podiums, he gets stuck in the back half of the top ten in more races. Finishes of seventh, eighth and ninth are good, but not great. 

Meanwhile, a combination of Scott Dixon being Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin both rising after a down season, Patricio O'Ward remaining a hassle, Will Power settling in nicely at Andretti Global, and Kyle Kirkwood running well sees Palou fall down to seventh. It is not great in Palou's terms but it could still be much worse.

What is realistic?

Again, we know Palou can be champion. It feels more likely he will be champion than not be champion, but let's reframe realistic in terms of the history book.

Palou is a driver with three consecutive championships and four total. He could win a fourth consecutive championship and join Sébastien Bourdais as the only drivers with four consecutive titles. That is realistic. It isn't crazy to think it would happen.

In terms of career victory, Palou enters this season with 19 victories. One more and Palou hits the 20-milestone, a good total to reach. If he wins eight races again, he will end with 27, which would put Palou level with Johnny Rutherford in 15th all-time.

It isn't impossible, but eight victories in a second consecutive season is a stretch. Only once in IndyCar history has a driver won at least eight races in consecutive seasons. That was someone called Mario Andretti in 1966 and 1967.

Six victories would still be a great season even if it is fewer than the previous season. IndyCar could tighten up quickly, but Palou will remain one of the best. Three or four victories is a great win total in nine seasons out of ten. Three victories would put Palou level with Tony Bettenhausen and Emerson Fittipaldi in the record book, and Palou is only in his seventh IndyCar season. Four victories for Palou puts him on 23 and it would put him tied for 20th all-time with Tommy Milton.

That is within reach.

The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.

2026 IndyCar Team Preview: Andretti Global

And then there were 19 days until the opening round of the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season. Less than three weeks until cars are back on track, Andretti Global will run three of them, but the team has undergone a change, and in a big way. One driver is off to chase a Formula One dream. Who does the team find to fill the void? One of the greatest drivers in IndyCar history. 

We do not see such driver movements often in IndyCar, but Andretti Global has made a big swing as it looks for its first championship since 2012. The pieces are there, and the team is coming off another respectable season. After winning three races in 2025, Andretti should be able to produce a contender. The only problem is too often this team is not in the conversation when it matters most.

At A Glance... We have no clue how this team will perform

We have no clue. 

Good. Bad. Great. Terrible. Wonderful. Horrid. We don't know.

We think Andretti Global will be competitive and should be respectable, but Andretti Global is pretty inconsistent. In the last two seasons, it had a driver finish in the top five of the championship. Prior to that, it struggled to have a driver finish in the top ten of the championship. In 2023, its best driver was tenth. But just a few seasons before that, Andretti was a regular top five finisher. 

Which team will we see? 

You would think Will Power entering will boost this team, but this is a team that has had Kyle Kirkwood, Marcus Ercisson, Colton Herta, Alexander Rossi, Romain Grosjean, Ryan Hunter-Reay and James Hinchcliffe race for it full-time in recent seasons, and it has not had a full team effort lead to sweeping success. One driver shines at best or they all struggle. The organization hasn't had two drivers finish in the top five of the championship since 2018. 

In the last two seasons, it has had multiple drivers in the top seven of the championship. That is progress, but only once in the last seven seasons has Andretti had multiple drivers win a race in a season. The track record speaks for itself. Everything on paper can be saying this should be an outstanding group, but paper has been saying a lot of positive things about the Andretti organization for a number of years now, and it has yet to be right.

Kirkwood led the team last year, but Herta went from championship hopeful to winless and he was not threatening at all last season. Ericsson declined in year two with the team when year one was not that impressive to begin with. There is excitement with Power joining this team, and at its best, Andretti and Power should be a dangerous combination. Power has some juice and Andretti has cars that can lead to victories, but if it works for Power, will Kirkwood remain at the same level we saw in 2025? Can Ericsson also rise? It never feels like a tide is lifting all boats at Andretti. One of them is always taking on water.

Maybe we do have a clue how this team will perform. Not as good as we think. 

2025 Andretti Global Review

Wins: 3 (Long Beach, Detroit, Gateway)

Poles: 3 (Long Beach, Detroit, Toronto)

Championship Finishes: 4th (Kyle Kirkwood), 7th (Colton Herta), 20th (Marcus Ericsson), 34th (Marco Andretti)

Will Power - #26 TWG Honda

Numbers to Remember:

6,384: Days since Power's last IndyCar start with a team other than Team Penske and his scheduled Andretti Global debut (September 7, 2008 at Chicagoland with KV Racing)

357: Points in 2025, matching his fewest with Team Penske, which previously occurred in 2021, and ironically in both of those seasons Power finished ninth in the championship

6: Finishes outside the top twenty last season

What is the best possible outcome?

Power comes in and it is a hit immediately. The street course form of Andretti Global accentuates Power's best ability and that is his launching pad to more. He looks like the Will Power of old. He is back to being one of the quickest we have seen, and the speed translate to every circuit. Power looks like he is a veteran with the organization and makes you think he has always been with Andretti. 

The best is opening the season with a victory in St. Petersburg, picking up another three or four victories, one being the Indianapolis 500 to boot. Everyone realizes Team Penske made a mistake as Power takes a stunning championship.

What is realistic?

I do think Power will excel with Andretti on street courses and that will be the best discipline of his season. He should be a regular top ten finisher and be able to bring another Andretti car into the conversation for the top five in the championship. The concern is we have seen Power have off days at Penske and we have seen Andretti have its slumps. A few of those seem unavoidable. If Andretti is off, I don't see Power being enough to lift the team on his own.

He is going to win multiple races. He is going to win on a street course and probably an oval. In all likelihood, Power is going to be the best Andretti driver in the championship.

Kyle Kirkwood - #27 Siemens Honda

Numbers to Remember:

7.889: Average finish in the first nine races of 2025, which includes being classified in 32nd for the Indianapolis 500 after being disqualified for modifications to the Energy Management System cover

14: Average finish in the final eight races of 2025

10.667: Average starting position in the first nine races of 2025

13.25: Average starting position in the final eight races of 2025

105: Laps led in the first nine races

9: Laps led in the final eight races

What is the best possible outcome?

Kirkwood repeats the first half of his 2025 season and then repeats it in the second half of 2026. Kirkwood is able to get more out of the car. He becomes a driver to beat at almost every race, and he gives Álex Palou a run for his money. If Kirkwood turns into a six-race winner and takes points away from Palou while also being a regular top five finisher. Kirkwood and the season learning from last season could turn him into a championship contender.

What is realistic?

Kirkwood had a great season last year, and he was Palou's toughest competition for the first half. Then it fell off in the second half. Kirkwood likely could be better than fifth with a more complete season. The speed is there to win, but there will be additional competition from within the organization on street courses with Will Power. That will take some points from Kirkwood. This will be a good year for Kirkwood, but it will be tougher for him to crack the top ten. He should have a spot comfortably in the top ten.

Marcus Ericsson - #28 Delaware Life Honda

Numbers to Remember:

9.34375: Average finish in 64 starts at Chip Ganassi Racing

16.3939: Average finish in 34 starts at Andretti Global

30: Finishes outside the top ten in Ericsson's first five seasons

24: Finishes outside the top ten in Ericsson's two seasons with Andretti Global

What is the best possible outcome?

Everything clicks in year three at Andretti. Bad days do not bite him. Ericsson is able to keep up with his two teammates and Andretti Global is an organization that is getting all three cars to the second round of qualifying regularly. On some weekends, all three are sneaking into the Fast Six. For Ericsson, it is returning to being a top ten finisher. Every race we are noting he is in seventh or eighth again. A few races a season, he is a little higher than that and gets on the podium. Anything in the championship top ten would be a smashing season for the Swede.

What is realistic?

Championship top ten is not impossible, but if it not click in year two with Andretti and it actually got worse, I don't see a major leap forward in year three. It should get better. If it isn't, Ericsson will be replaced. It is tough to run well in IndyCar. Someone has to finish 20th in the championship. Andretti doesn't think it should be one of its drivers. Ericsson can do better, but it doesn't feel like he is going to be a threat to win races, unlike his teammates. Top ten finishes should come his way, but I don't think they will be enough to get the championship top ten. Twelfth feels like the ceiling. 

The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.

Musings From the Weekend: A Busy February

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

The Seattle Seahawks are Super Bowl champions. Lewis Hamilton was at the game. Dale Coyne Racing’s second entry is still not officially filled. Prema’s 2026 season still looks woeful. There will be some IndyCar testing at Sebring. Indy Lights will be testing in Miami. The Asian Le Mans Series season ended. Ryan Preece won the Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium through weather delays and sleet. The events of Wednesday night did inspire part of this weekend's musings, but there is quite a lot going on, and it has led to a lot more than I initially anticipated for this weekend.

Busy February
The Super Bowl is behind us, the Olympics are ahead of us, it is a busy February, and so much so, it is tough to focus on one thing to write about. There are also a ew big motorsports events around the corner. To fill the middle of February, let's hit a few topics that fit the moment, starting with a race that is this weekend, but arguably may should occur earlier.

Move the Daytona 500 Up
Last week, NASCAR's season opening event, though it is an exhibition race, was moved from a Sunday night to a Wednesday night due to winter weather hitting North Carolina. Even with the delay, the weather was not kind to the Winston-Salem-area. Sleet still hit Bowman Gray Stadium as the Clash took place. It will now hold a place in NASCAR history for being memorable for simultaneously good and bad reasons.

North Carolina received record snowfall. Not every opening weekend in February is like this, but why even place the event in such a precarious spot. The first weekend in February is not the best spot for a night race in North Carolina. It really isn't a great spot for a night race outside of Florida, Southern California and maybe Arizona. NASCAR wanted to bring the Clash back to NASCAR's root and put a Cup event at Bowman Gray Stadium. Fine, but maybe put it in a better spot for success.

While the Clash didn't take place, this weekend was fairly open in the American sports calendar. It is the weekend before the Super Bowl, and it is a little more open as the Pro Bowl has moved to a Tuesday night. If the Pro Bowl is going to be on a weeknight, I think the door is open for NASCAR to move its biggest race to the weekend before the Super Bowl.

One, the NFL season is bound to expand and add another week in the next five years. If that happens, there is a good chance the Super Bowl will fall on President's Day weekend on a regular basis, the current spot for the Daytona 500. Next year, the Super Bowl will be on President’s Day weekend because of how the calendar falls. NASCAR has no firepower to hold off the invasion, but there are alternatives to fighting.

I don't know if the week after the Super Bowl is better than the week prior, but it could be good to get an early start on it. It is a wide-open weekend, and it would be the biggest event by far. It would come seven days after the 24 Hours of Daytona, but maybe that isn't a bad thing for motorsports fans. You have a great ten-day slate with one of the biggest sports car races in the world leading to one of the biggest races in the United States.

People complain about Speedweeks not being Speedweeks anymore. Imagine a three-week stretch where you have the Roar Before the 24, the 24 Hours of Daytona and then the Daytona 500. Use the 24 Hours of Daytona to promote the Daytona 500! It might be better than the Clash. There would be nearly non-stop action at the track. It would be a great ticket.

As for what would happen next? Take Super Bowl weekend off. Who cares? Don't try to run a race Saturday night. Don't try to run Sunday afternoon before the game. Run a race, take a week off and then have the second race of the season the week after that. Ease into the season.

As for the Clash and Bowman Gray Stadium, I have an idea but will share at a later date.

The IndyCar Scheduling Note You Missed
While an additional race in Washington, D.C. rightfully took a significant amount of attention, there is a note about IndyCar schedule that you likely missed. It isn't official, but confirmed scheduling for one sporting event hints at when an IndyCar race will take place.

Last week, Fox released its broadcast schedule for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and after the FIFA World Cup Final on Sunday July 19, Fox has confirmed it will have a one-hour post-game show beginning at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

Well, IndyCar has scheduled a race to follow the World Cup Final in Nashville, and at the earliest it appears it will begin at 6:30 p.m. Eastern, which is 5:30 p.m. local.

There is one other issue. NASCAR has a race scheduled for that night at North Wilkesboro for a 7:00 p.m. Eastern start.

No matter what, these races are going to clash, the question is how close do they clash?

Does IndyCar get going immediately at 6:30 p.m. Eastern? Does it have a mini teaser for the race before a 6:45 p.m. start? Does it just start at 7:00 p.m.?

Either way, this is not going to be a night race, and waiting for it to be a night race is foolish. If you want to keep people watching from the World Cup Final, you aren't going to wait any longer than 15 or 20 minutes to start the race. Sunset isn't going to be until 9:00 p.m. local in Nashville. In all likelihood, none of this race will be at night, but if you are hoping to catch a wave of viewership off a bigger event, you take what you can get. Beggars can't be choosers.

We have an idea when the Nashville race will be. It really feels like this race should get right underway. Set up the storylines right after the toss from the post-game show, but by 6:45 p.m. Eastern, this race should be green.

In case you are wondering about the doomsday outcome. It is a thunderstorm delaying this match or interrupting this match. Another good idea from IndyCar could be washed out, and then we will be left wondering what could have been.

Be prepared, and treat it as a comedy should the worst happen.

It is Only Testing
Some were upset when Formula One's first test session was held behind closed doors without much media presence and no fans allowed into the Circuit de Catalunya.

Formula One has made everything into an event of late. Testing, races, the Thursday nights before race weekends begin, whatever it is, Formula One added pomp to it. This was the first outing for teams with these new cars based on the new regulations. It is fine if we didn't get to see everything.

It is only testing, and the first test is pretty misleading. Just because the first test goes a certain way does not mean this is how it will be for the entire season. Also, Formula One is going to be showing more from its later two test sessions from Bahrain. The final hour of each of the first three days will be shown from February 11-13. All three days over February 18-20 will be live in its entirety.

We can live with some things remaining secret for a little longer. There was enough to come up from reports at the Barcelona test to whet your whistle. It just wasn't instantaneous. It wasn't a broadcast and it wasn't creating social media highlights.

That is fine. We will have enough of that once the races begin. It is ok if things are moving a little slower in January and February. It might be better for our expectations, keeping them more even than inflating or deflating unnecessarily.

Champions From the Weekend
The #4 CrowdStrike by APR Oreca-Gibson of Louis Delétraz, Malthe Jakobsen and George Kurtz clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a first and eight in Abu Dhabi. 

The #17 CLX Motorsport Ligier-Toyota of Alexander Jacoby, Paul Lanchère and Kévin Rabin clinched the ALMS LMP3 championship with a first and a retirement in Abu Dhabi.

The #74 Kessel Racing Ferrari of Dustin Blattner, Chris Lulham and Dennis Marshall clinched the ALMS LMP3 championship with finishes of third and ninth in Abu Dhabi.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Ryan Preece, but did you know...

The #69 Team WRT BMW of Dan Harper, Anthony McIntosh and Parker Thompson won in GT in the first 4 Hours of Abu Dhabi.

The #3 DKR Engineering Oreca-Gibson of Alexander Mattschull, Mathias Beche and Griffin Peebles won the second 4 Hours of Dubai. The #23 23Events Racing Ligier-Toyota of Isaac Barashi, Matteo Quintarelli and Louis Stern won in LMP3. The #56 Écurie Écosse Blackthorn Aston Martin of Jonathan Adam, Kobe Pauwels and Giacomo Petrobelli won in GT.

Ken Roczen won the Supercross race from Glendale. Haiden Deegan won the 250cc race, his fourth consecutive victory.

Coming Up This Weekend
68th Daytona 500
24th Bathurst 12 Hour
73rd Rally Sweden
Supercross makes an early trip to Seattle

2026 IndyCar Team Preview: Juncos Hollinger Racing

One day closer to the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season and one more team to preview to share. Only 24 days from the season opener, and we are onto a team that has made some changes again. For the third consecutive season, Juncos Hollinger Racing has a new driver lineup. 

The team has been stagnant ever since it became a full-time IndyCar team. Every driver who has came through JHR hits the same level. The team has never had a top fifteen finish in the championship. It has yet to win a race. Each year, JHR shows some sparks and it has a few good days, but most races see the team out of the picture, and no one looks to it as a threat. 

JHR has brought in a driver that has been above its pedigree, but the question hanging over this team is can anyone outperform its current limits?

At A Glance... This team goes as far as Rinus VeeKay goes

It is pretty self explanatory. If Rinus VeeKay has a good season, Juncos Hollinger Racing is going to have a good season. If Rinus VeeKay does not have a good season, Juncos Hollinger Racing is not going to have a good season. It is black-and-white for this group, a team that has yet to have an overwhelmingly good season in IndyCar since it became a full-time entrant in 2022.

Sting Ray Robb is not going to make a difference. In his three-year career, Robb's best average finish in a season is 19.3529. He has two top ten finishes in 51 starts. Both of those results were ninth. He struggles to qualify in the top twenty. We know the limits of Robb, and he is not going to be the one carrying this team. All eyes are on VeeKay.

VeeKay has been the model of consistency over his six IndyCar seasons. He has never finished better than 12th in the championship, but he has also never finished worse than 14th. In four of those seasons he has had a podium finish. In five of those seasons he has had at least one top five result, and he has been doing it with mid-level equipment. Let’s not forget, he does have a race victory though it came nearly five years ago.

Ed Carpenter Racing has not been a regular contender for a decade, but VeeKay was the best driver every year he was there. An argument could be made VeeKay went to the worst team in IndyCar, or charitably the least-resourced team in IndyCar in Dale Coyne Racing, and he competed in the top ten and fought for top five finishes. At Toronto, he was in the conversation for victory. VeeKay can get the most out of a race car. The question will be how much is there in JHR's machines?

We have seen JHR have good days, but those are seldom, and we see its drivers struggle to be average. Every driver seems to have a good day or two. Callum Ilott had a few top five finishes and had some good qualifying runs. Romain Grosjean had a few good races and scored a top five at Laguna Seca. Conor Daly got the most out of the car on ovals and scored JHR's its best result, its lone podium finish, but all those results were uncommon, and most weeks these three drivers were struggling to break into the top fifteen.

This will now be VeeKay's battle, and while he has been able to pull out more top ten finishes than others in similar equipment, there comes a point where the cars are just not there for good results on a regular basis. JHR can put the pieces together for a race or two, but most weekends it looks like the team is fighting from behind. It is fighting just to get firmly in the middle of IndyCar and not be stuck toward the back. 

VeeKay worked some impressive magic last year at Dale Coyne Racing. The last driver hired for the 2025 season, he was the toast of the series for the first half of the season, and it briefly looked like he could sneak into the championship top ten. It was a tougher end to the season, but VeeKay took a team that did not finish better than 13th all season in 2024 and showed it could be competitive. Not that it was a surprise considering we have seen Coyne be competitive before, but nobody was expecting that big of a leap for Coyne.

Can VeeKay replicate that form at JHR? The team has never had a driver finish in the top fifteen of the championship, and VeeKay has never finished outside the top fifteen. One of those streaks will end this year.

2025 Juncos Hollinger Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 5th (Nashville)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 2nd (Iowa I)

Championship Finishes: 18th (Conor Daly), 25th (Sting Ray Robb)

Rinus VeeKay - #76 JHR Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

16.04: Combined average finish of Callum Ilott, Romain Grosjean and Conor Daly at Juncos Hollinger Racing

13.91753: VeeKay's career average finish

4.75: Juncos Hollinger Racing's average number of top ten finishes in a season since 2022

5.333: VeeKay's average number of top ten finishes in a season

What is the best possible outcome?

VeeKay can have seven or eight top ten finishes, though none are all that impressive, but they are good results, and even when he is not finishing in the top ten, he is finishing in the top fifteen and scoring respectable points totals on a consistent basis. There could be a race or two where JHR has good form and VeeKay is pushing for the top five, which helps his championship total.

At best, we see VeeKay match his personal best championship finish, and that is 12th. The top ten feels like it will be just out of reach, but VeeKay can firmly keep himself in the territory he has been occupying his entire career.

What is realistic?

It feels like we are about to see VeeKay's worst season in IndyCar, and it is not because of a diminished skill set or the grid improving drastically. It is a driver moving to a less successful team and at some point the pieces don't all fall in place and everything becomes more difficult.

Even when Romain Grosjean had six top ten finishes for the team in 2024, he was 17th in the championship, and Grosjean had only two retirements that season, one of which was for a gearbox issue in the season opener at St. Petersburg, and Grosjean was collected in an accident at Iowa.

Any more than five top ten finishes would be overachieving for VeeKay. Even if he does that, at best he finishes 15th, which would technically be his worst championship result in IndyCar, but it would not be a disaster or an embarrassing season for the Dutchman. It would actually be another honorable result showing he can punch above the weight of the team.

Sting Ray Robb - #77 Goodheart Animal Health Center Chevrolet

Numbers to Remember:

20.35294: Career average finish

23.41176: Career average starting position

7: Top twenty starts in 2025

2: Top twenty starts for Robb in his first two seasons

What is the best possible outcome?

The best result for Sting Ray Robb would be if Prema is unable to run full-time and gifts him at least two positions in the championship. Take out some of the competition and Robb will be guaranteed an improvement no matter what happens on track in 2026.

Robb is more comfortable with the car, and his qualifying form did pick up in 2025, but he is still miles from being competitive. We are never expecting him to be in the mix to get out of the first round of qualifying on a road or street course.

The limits are Robb qualifies in the top twenty in the majority of the races, he has about six finishes in the top fifteen and he has an average finish around 18th. That might sneak him into the top 20 in the championship.

What is realistic?

Two fewer Prema cars competing full-time would actually help Robb out a lot. It is not what is preventing him from finishing in the championship top ten, but a few more points here and there can make a difference. It should be noted he was 25th in the championship and 30 points behind Robert Shwartzman in 24th. The only other full-time drivers behind Robb in 2025 were Devlin DeFrancesco, who scored ten fewer points, and Jacob Abel, who missed the Indianapolis 500 but was still 58 points behind Robb.

Robb had three top fifteen finishes last year. He was ninth at Long Beach but that included impressive tire strategy and not losing an excessive amount of time on the alternate tire.

Maybe he is in for one fortunate result a season, but it is not going to completely swing his championship. He could finish in the top 20, but 20th feels like the limit. Even if there are only 25 full-time cars, it feels like Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing improved greatly by taking DeFrancesco out for Mick Schumacher, and it seems like Dale Coyne Racing could be set for a big improvement in its second car. Even without Shwartzman, Robb was 32 points from the next driver in the championship, and that was Nolan Siegel.

Do we really think Robb is going to outscore an Arrow McLaren driver?

Someone must finish last among the full-time drivers. I think we have found our guy.

The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.

2026 IndyCar Team Preview: Meyer Shank Racing

We are within the final month of the IndyCar season, and with 25 days until the first race from St. Petersburg, we are heading into the final half of our team previews. We reach Meyer Shank Racing, which is coming off its best season in IndyCar across two entries. Both MSR entries cracked the top eight in the championship, a first for the team, and MSR beat IndyCar stalwarts in the process. 

However, for all of MSR’s speed and success, one thing eluded the team. It didn’t win a race, meaning the team still has something to shoot for in 2026 that would be a clear step forward from last season. The toughest thing to do is follow up your best season with something even better. Everyone is improving, and MSR has a mighty task to be just as good as they were the year before. 

At A Glance... Meyer Shank Racing is knocking on the door

All things considered, Meyer Shank Racing was about as close as it could be to be a race winner and not win a race in 2025. A couple of podium finishes, a few more top five finishes and both its drivers finished in the top eight of the championship. I don't think it has been stated enough that both Meyer Shank Racing drivers finished ahead of all three Team Penske drivers in the championship last year. Nobody had that before last season began.

Meyer Shank Racing has been trending in the right direction in the last two seasons. Since hiring Felix Rosenqvist, the team has been consistently more competitive, and it has been turning out some impressive results. The technical partnership with Chip Ganassi Racing yielded better results last year, and the team was in the picture when it came to winning a race on a few occasions. It just didn't get there.

If things keep trending in the same direction as the last two seasons, MSR is going to remain in the mix, and it is only a matter of time before something goes in their favor and they win a race.

Think about how Ed Carpenter Racing won a race last year, and that was one very good race for the team. ECR wasn't as consistently good as MSR was. There were weekends where ECR was not a factor, and yet on one weekend in Milwaukee, the speed was there and a series of events fell fortunately for ECR, and the team ended up with an unexpected victory. If it can happen to ECR, it can happen to MSR.

You take a win anyway you can get it, and MSR likely does not want to be banking on a timely caution and favorable tire strategy to be what gets them a victory, but the team has done a better job of at least being in the front. It is not going to take a great fluke for MSR to win. It could be their weekend when they are running fourth and end up stopping on the right side of a caution when the top three have yet to stop. It might be stealing a victory, but it would not be a felony robbery.

However, MSR might not even need that. The pace has been so that it could win a race outright. Rosenqvist has constantly been in position, but his biggest issue is converting qualifying pace into race pace. Too often does the Swede start in the top five and never factor. All it takes, though, is one race where it clicks and a top four starting position could turn into a victory. Marcus Armstrong has also improved over each of his first three seasons in IndyCar. It is not unthinkable that everything could click for MSR one weekend and one of its two drivers come out on top.

MSR has come a long way from 2023. It is a legitimate contender. Now is the time for its second breakthrough, approaching five years after it won the Indianapolis 500.

2025 Meyer Shank Racing Review

Wins: 0

Best Finish: 2nd (Road America)

Poles: 0

Best Start: 2nd (Iowa II, Portland)

Championship Finishes: 6th (Felix Rosenqvist), 8th (Marcus Armstrong)

Felix Rosenqvist - #60 SiriusXM Honda

Numbers to Remember:

33: Top five starting positions in his career 

5: Times finishing equal or better than his starting position when starting in the top five

12.4545: Average finish when starting in the top five

13.1: Average finish when starting outside the top five 

12.9115: Career average finishing position

10.0085: Career average starting position

What is the best possible outcome?

There is a world where Rosenqvist wins two races and finishes somewhere in the top five of the championship. When you look at Rosenqvist's qualifying form, there is a world where he is taking second and third-place starting positions and turning a few of those into victories, finishing in the top five regularly after starting in the top five and it gets him fourth or fifth in the championship.

It is unlikely his consistency would be good enough to turn him into a championship contender or even steal a title, but if Christian Lundgaard can get six podium finishes and finish fourth in the championship, Rosenqvist could do something similar.

What is realistic?

When we consider where MSR was in 2023, it is difficult to imagine both cars are going to finish in the top eight of the championship for a second consecutive season. Even both cracking the top ten feels like a stretch. We saw last year the very best of Rosenqvist, and it got him sixth in the championship. In 2024, we saw an inconsistent Rosenqvist, and despite a great start, a rough second half of the season dropped him to 12th in the championship.

We aren't sure which Rosenqvist we are going to get. For how well things went in 2025, he still did not have a top five finish in the final eight races. In 2024, he had one top ten finish in the final 11 races. We see a pattern developing. We cannot feel certain he can put together a full season, and a strong start will only take you so far. Outside of his rookie season, he has never really had a complete season.

Just inside the top ten of the championship feels about right for Rosenqvist. He should be able to get a few top five finishes and be in the top ten in about half the races, if not a few more. If he maximizes those top five results, he could be sixth again. If he gets a pair of fifths, then maybe he is eighth, maybe he is ninth.

Marcus Armstrong - #66 SiriusXM/Root Insurance Honda

Numbers to Remember:

11: Top ten finishes in 2025, tied for fourth-most in IndyCar last season

9: Fast Twelve appearances, tied for third-most in IndyCar last season

7: Races led, tied for third-most in IndyCar last season

10.882: Average finish, tied for sixth-best in IndyCar last season

What is the best possible outcome?

The best possible outcome for Armstrong is he finds the speed to usurp the place of his teammate Rosenqvist, and Armstrong is the one who is qualifying in the top five more times than that, he is running in the top five consistently, and he is the best finishing MSR driver a dozen times or so in 2026.

There is no reason to not believe that Armstrong couldn't replicate Rosenqvist's results from 2025 and end up finishing sixth in the championship. These two drivers were pretty even last season. Only eight points separated them. The results could flip, and Armstrong could be in position to steal a victory or two. A race could be his where he is one of the fastest cars and strategy lines up right combined with outstanding pace. In that case, the championship top five is in play. Each season, Armstrong gets a little bit better, and I don't see a reason why to believe that will not continue.

What is realistic?

It feels like one of the MSR drivers is going to be competitive and respectable but not both in 2026. One of them is going to get in the championship top ten and the other is going to end up outside. That doesn't mean the season would be a disaster. A 13th-place championship finish is still good for MSR.

Armstrong had 11 top ten finishes last year. Even if he had a slight decline and had eight top ten finishes, that isn't a bad season for him or the team. He could take a slightly larger step back and only had six or seven top ten finishes. The range is quite wide for both MSR drivers. They both could be pushing for the championship top five. They both could slip and end up outside the top ten but just inside the top 15. It also comes down to how strong the competition is and if the likes of Team Penske and Andretti Global pick up their results.

The 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season begins on Sunday March 1 with the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. Fox's coverage will begin at noon Eastern.