The Last Straw: IndyCar Must Make Changes After Latest Team Penske Infraction

You would not expect for the second consecutive season Team Penske would find itself embroiled in another scandal with multiple cars found to have failed inspection for the same, somewhat calculated-looking, violation. Not only has it happened a second time with illegal modifications to the attenuator, but it happened in Sunday qualifying for the Indianapolis 500, intensifying the scrutiny about 100-fold from last year's push-to-pass violation. 

Josef Newgarden and Will Power's car were found with the illegal part ahead of the Fast 12 session, Initially, both cars were barred from participating in Sunday qualifying, placing the two cars 11th and 12th on the grid. After a night of deliberation, it was decided Newgarden and Power would be moved to the rear of the grid and take the 32nd and 33rd positions. Scott McLaughlin's car did not have a modified attenuator and was found to be legal. McLaughlin was able to keep his tenth-place starting spot.

Along with the lost grid spots, each entry was issued a $100,000-fine, and strategists Tim Cindric and Ron Ruzewski were suspended for the Indianapolis 500.

Though penalties have been issued, the wild fire has not stopped spreading. Questions over how long Team Penske had the illegal attenuator on the car immediately cropped up. 

Patricio O'Ward was defiant that if the cars were like that on Sunday ahead of the Fast 12 session, those cars ran with the illegal part on Saturday to make the Fast 12 session. Photos taken of Josef Newgarden's 2024 Indianapolis 500 winner, which sits in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Museum show the same modified attenuator on the car. Whether that car is unchanged from last year's race or it was built with other parts not used in the race is unknown. 

Whether the parts were on the car on Saturday is a moot point as IndyCar officials cleared the cars for qualifying in pre-qualifying inspection and in post-qualifying inspection after Newgarden and Power made their qualifying runs. In the eyes of rulebook, the Saturday qualifying runs were legal even if we are not sure Team Penske got away with one. 

The general belief in motorsports is everyone is pushing the limit of legality to maximize efficiency and performance. It isn't about obviously breaking a rule but getting the most of what is allowed. With all the focus that is put on a car for the Indianapolis 500 and the countless hours spent to massage these cars to eliminate as much drag as possible, stepping over the line can mean going over by a toe. It is still going beyond the limit, but it isn't leaping over with no regard for the line. 

After all, Team Penske wasn't the only team to have failed inspection over the weekend. On Saturday, there were two inspection failures that were caught. Hélio Castroneves did not pass pre-qualifying inspection and lost his spot in the qualifying line for the first run. Conor Daly was found to have his front wing be too low in post-qualifying inspection after his first attempt and lost his time, forcing Daly to run again. 

Team Penske is praised for its "Penske Perfect" mindset as it tries to get everything perfect with its machinery. If it sees a potential inefficiency on the car, it will try to eliminate it. The belief is the team will try and do it within the limits of the rulebook. A rule can be violated and not done deliberately, but intention is doesn't matter, especially when Penske has lost the benefit of the doubt. It is black-and-white in this instance. Was the attenuator modified or not? Did it go over the line? It was clear it was. 

IndyCar is not in an easy position when it comes to this penalty. 

As much as people believe Team Penske ran these parts on Saturday, the cars passed inspection multiple times. They were declared good to run and were declared fit after qualifying. No penalty can be issued for Saturday. The cars could not be kicked out of the race as they made the top 30 with what the official declared legal cars. The violation was found ahead of qualifying on Sunday. IndyCar can only punish from that point forward. They lost the privilege to run on Sunday, but IndyCar has muddy the waters moving the cars to the rear of the field. 

Much of what has been done has been based on emotion. It feels like everyone believes Team Penske got away with one on Saturday, but isn't that what everyone tries in inspection? Every team is looking to get that little advantage pass the officials. Every team would take that if it worked in their favor. Once Team Penske was caught with the infraction, people wanted to see a significant penalty. Keeping 11th and 12th on the grid felt like almost no punishment at all. The team lost the chance for pole position, improving its track position and the additional points from qualifying, but that was not enough bite. To make a point, IndyCar relegated the cars to the last row. 

None of those penalties matters, and none of it is enough to the other teams. No fine nor suspension can make up for the questions in IndyCar's integrity when it comes to enforcing the rulebook, especially when it comes to Team Penske running in the Roger Penske-owned series. 

The conflict of interest is too great to ignore. It has been since day one when Roger Penske purchased the series and Indianapolis Motor Speedway from the Hulman-George family in November 2019. As much as they have tried to balance church and state and remain fair, all sides have been failing.

While the modified attenuator might have been something that slipped pass the officials and it could have gone in the favor of any team on the grid, it also looks like something small that the officials let Team Penske get away with. Nothing looks innocent with this current dynamic even if it is not done with maliciousness. 

There is a good chance this infraction was down to a minor adjustment to help the performance of the car by scraping out every last bit of aero efficiency. It wasn't done knowingly breaking a rule, nor breaking a rule that would lead to a massive jump in performance. The crew was likely doing it fully intending to remain within the limits of the rulebook. One of the Penske cars was legal after all. If this was a team-wide effort to break the rules, wouldn't all three have had the same part? It suggests in two instances, the team went a little too far doing what every team is doing to find that little extra speed.

It is difficult to weigh a Team Penske infraction in 2025 IndyCar versus that of another team. Everyone wants blood but I am not sure the response would be the same if the same infraction was found on a two-car team that had neither car make the Fast 12. Extra is wanted when it is Team Penske. Last year's infraction also contributes to that sentiment. 

Last year's infractions should have been an infliction point for the series. This must be the last straw.

Changes must come, especially to the officiating process for the sake of competitive fairness in the series. Even if IndyCar officiating did not turn a blind eye to Team Penske breaking the rules, a team still appears to have gotten something easily noticeable through inspection and run with an illegally modified part. This infraction was spotted on pit lane by a rival team owner. This wasn't something hidden. The naked eye noticed it on pit lane. If that is not a sign that IndyCar officiating must shape up, I don't know what is. 

But this should drive further a greater need for independence in the officials who are judging cars owned by the same man who owns the series. At this point, IndyCar cannot afford another scandal where it looks like Team Penske is getting away with breaking the rule. Even if Team Penske is being punished, and it has for both infractions, it still looks like the organization is getting away with more than most. 

It is tough to do overnight, but an independent group of officials should already be in place to watch over the cars ahead of the Indianapolis 500 and for the rest of the season. At some point, there will be an infraction that shatters the integrity of the series, and no one in IndyCar can afford that.

There is no coming back from a third Team Penske violation of this magnitude, but it really shouldn't have gotten to a second to begin with.

Musings From the Weekend: I Feel Like Charlie Brown

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Robert Shwartzman stunned us all winning pole position for the Indianapolis 500. Team Penske is in hot water, again. Dale Coyne Racing has a car missing the race, again. People got really sentimentally over what is likely Formula One's last trip to Imola for the foreseeable future. Red Bull hit a milestone. McLaren might have gotten in its own way. Ferrari bounced back from a poor Saturday. It rained in Tokyo. NASCAR held an exhibition race. Rally Portugal was demanding. We all know what this week is, but let's not pretend it is all roses. 

I Feel Like Charlie Brown

"I won't let all this commercialism ruin my Christmas," said Charlie Brown as he carried his Christmas tree back home after the others scorn its appearance at the theatre. It might not have been the shiny, aluminum tree others had become accustomed to propping up in their homes, but with a little decorating Charlie Brown's tree had the potential to be beautiful and bring joy to the Christmas season. 

I was not happy. It has not a happy period following IndyCar recently, but the negativity did not feel all that necessary. 

The age old problems have been there. The gaps in the schedule and lack of races early in the season. Calendar shuffles. Oval race instability. Rating woes. None of it is new. That doesn't mean they are fine, but they are not a surprise. We would love for those to be the opposite of how they are. It felt like we went through a period where everything was turned into a negative. 

Nothing was good enough. The races weren't good enough. Firestone wasn't getting the tire compounds right. The hybrid was to blame. That was the source for all the problems. Everything was going down the drain, but if you have been around long enough, it doesn't look worse. 

We have seen plenty of races where a pole-sitter gets jump on the field and leads 90% of a race before winning by over ten seconds. That is nothing new. We have seen dozens of those over the years. All the greats have won those kind of races. A.J. Foyt did it. Mario Andretti did it. We could list names all day. Why did it become unacceptable in 2025? 

Expectations are not realistic. 

We saw Álex Palou overcome a ten-second deficit in seven laps and pass Patricio O'Ward to take the lead and eventual victory at the Thermal Club. That is a kind of drive we rarely see. A race that was a near-certain result was flipped after the final round of pit stops in the closing laps, and Palou completed a magnificent drive that not many others could repeat. 

Instead of celebrating Palou, the crowd scorched earth over a race at Thermal Club. 

While the Thermal Club event has its flaws and does not match with the socioeconomics of the audience IndyCar draws, it shouldn't completely blind you of the race that took place. 

You can believe Thermal is a flawed event and its place on the IndyCar schedule should require the track opening up more to general spectators that are not members of the club for a reasonable price AND recognize that Palou completed a thrilling run while there were other good battles throughout the field.

Long Beach had one of its biggest crowds in the event's history. Kyle Kirkwood won from pole position but he had Palou keeping him honest over the entire race. Not the best race ever, but not the worst. Yet, there was more anger after that race. 

Palou stomped the field at Barber Motorsports Park. He checked out from lap one. However, there was great racing elsewhere. Christian Lundgaard drove up to second. Scott McLaughlin and the Dale Coyne Racing entry of Rinus VeeKay battled for third. Alexander Rossi and Nolan Siegel had a good battle throughout the final stint. You would like to see the battle for the victory to go until the final lap, but sometimes that isn't the case and the battles throughout the field make up for it to an extent. Barber wasn't any different from other Barber races. Watch the 2019 Barber race as an example. That was lost on a good number of people.

Introspection is not done enough. It is constant knee-jerk reactions, and it is mostly "bad, bad, bad." There is no room for the middle anymore, but the world remains rather gray even if black-and-white is easier. 

There are many things IndyCar must work on. It is frustrating that some issues have lingered longer than necessary, and confidence has been lost that series management can make a turn in an upward direction, but that shouldn't turn every race into a sulking session. 

Is it really that bad or are we looking for reasons to be angry? Therapy is not a bad thing, folks. Projection is not healthy. It also isn't fair. 

I am not going to let all this negativity ruin my Indianapolis 500. 

We do not know what the race will be like. I doubt it will be the worst I have ever seen. I don't think it will be the best I have ever seen either. It will be in the middle, and that is ok. There will be fun moments. It might be close to the finish. There might be a late pass. It could be the case where second-place just cannot make a run on the leader. We will live either way. 

Not every race can be an ultimatum on the series, life or death over how the series is trending. That is an exhausting way to live. Compartmentalize what happens on the track and what happens away from it, and remember to keep perspective. Is it really rock-bottom? 

It is ok if things are just ok. Not every race is going to be better than the one before it. That is not realistic. You must find a way to accept that and live in the gray. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Robert Shwartzman, but did you know...

Max Verstappen won the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, his second victory of the season.

Jak Crawford (sprint) and Alex Dunne (feature) split the Formula Two races from Imola. Tim Tramnitz (sprint) and Santiago Ramos (feature) split the Formula Three races. 

Stoffel Vandoorne and Oliver Rowland split the Tokyo ePrix.

Christopher Bell won the NASCAR All-Star Race from North Wilkesboro. Chandler Smith won the Truck Series race, his second victory of the season.

Sho Tsuboi won the Super Formula race from Autopolis.

Toprak Razgatlioglu (race one and SuperPole race) and Nicolò Bulega (race two) split the World Superbike races from Most. Jaume Masià and Can Öncü split the World Supersport races.

The #99 Random Vandals Racing BMW of Connor de Phillippi and Kenton Koch swept the GT World Challenge America races from Sebring. Memo Gidley and Kyle Washington split the GT America races. The #97 Random Vandals Racing BMW of Kenton Koch and Kevin Boehm swept the GT4 America races.

Sébastien Ogier won Rally Portugal, his second victory of the season.

Coming Up This Weekend

109th Indianapolis 500.

82nd Monaco Grand Prix

66th Coca-Cola 600

MotoGP has a holiday weekend at Silverstone.

Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters will be at the Lausitzring.

First Impressions: 109th Indianapolis 500 Sunday Qualifying

1. Just when you think you have everything figured out, like manna from heaven, the unexpected falls into your lap. At the start of practice week, Prema was the last team on track, and not just the last team because of pit lane positioning or rules but the last team because its two cars were not ready for the first practice session on Tuesday. Not only were the cars not ready, the cars were not ready for a delayed start to practice! Rain had pushed back the track opening for two hours and 35 minutes, and Prema was still not ready to run. 

It was not a good look for a team many had penciled into the last row battle and possibly faced one of its cars being bumped from the race. 

Five days later, the last car on track ends up on pole position with rookie Robert Shwartzman, a driver who has never run an oval race. Shwartzman showed comfortable pace late in the practice week, and it kind of calmed any nerves he or his teammate Callum Ilott would be in the last row shootout. Both cars looked set to make the top 30. 

Then Shwartzman ran the sixth-fastest time on Saturday after being the fourth car on track. Alright, not bad. We have seen Fast 12 surprises before. Then Shwartzman made the Fast Six, aided a little with an absence of Team Penske due to two inspection violations and an afternoon practice accident. Either way, it was nine cars going for six spots. Shwartzman was not gifted a spot. 

Despite going against two past Indianapolis 500 winner, a three-time IndyCar champion, last year's Indianapolis 500 runner-up and a driver who had qualified in the top nine the past three years in the "500," the driver to come out on top was the Israeli rookie Shwartzman with a four-lap average at 232.790 mph, the first rookie to win Indianapolis 500 pole position since Teo Fabi in 1983. 

This is a stunning outcome. Prema faced a considerably amount of criticism during the preseason when the team separated from engineer Mike Cannon after a week together. The team was painted as to blame for Cannon's departure and it was labeled as clueless to let such a figure go as it was entering IndyCar. Many believed this team would struggle and Cannon would have lifted the team up the order with his expertise. 

It has been a tough season for Prema, as it has struggled to find speed and work through the teething issues of being in a new series. It hasn't been the slowest two cars and miles off the pace. It is struggling to be competitive like a handful of other teams in the series. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is where everyone expected Prema to face its greatest battle. 

The week didn't start out great, but Prema was holding its own. It wasn't slow. It wasn't in danger. Somehow, this team found more than everyone else, and it did it with the rookie who has never raced on an oval before.

Shwartzman entered IndyCar as an unknown. He was runner-up to Oscar Piastri in Formula Two in 2021. He won the 2019 Formula Three championship ahead of the likes of Marcus Armstrong, Christian Lundgaard, Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson. All of this success came with Prema. In the Ferrari junior program, Shwartzman had Formula One dreams, but the door never opened. He spent 2022 on the sideline as Ferrari's test driver. 

In 2023, Shwartzman actually tested for Chip Ganassi Racing that January in Sebring, and he was fastest in a four-car test with Kyffin Simpson, Sting Ray Robb and Dane Cameron in a Team Penske car. Despite that test, Shwartzman started dabbling in sports cars that year, running in GT World Challenge Europe Endurance Cup. His big break was last year in the FIA World Endurance Championship running a privateer Ferrari 499P with AF Corse.

Results were good last year with co-drivers Robert Kubica and Yifei Ye. They were fourth at Qatar and won at Circuit of the Americas in Austin. When Prema entered IndyCar, it called one of its most recent young talents to join them in an unknown venture. It was a risk for Shwartzman, but this one day has made up for all the rough days over the first five races.

Robert Shwartzman has six days to prepare himself for the biggest moment of his career: Leading a field of 33 cars into turn one for the opening lap of the Indianapolis 500. Five days ago, that likely wasn't even happening in his wildest dreams.

2. From the youth and green face of Robert Shwartzman on pole position, to the experience of a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner starting second. Takuma Sato has put RAHAL LETTERMAN LANIGAN RACING ON THE FRONT ROW! 

The top two teams in Indianapolis 500 qualifying were Prema and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing? 

Are we sure? 

Five days ago, we were preparing for Prema and RLLR having last chance qualifying entries and battling not to get bumped from the race. Instead, these teams are starting first and second. Sato has been the strongest RLLR driver the last two years. He has carried the team. RLLR has some speed even if its other three cars are not toward the front. 

Sato ran four laps at 232.478 mph. Now a one-off, Sato remains quick and a third Indianapolis 500 is in his sights. 

Sometimes you get all the stories in qualifying. Prema pole position with Shwartzman. Sato second with RLLR. Something must give. This is great for this weekend, but the stories we really remember are made next week. Prema will be abuzz all week and it might be too high for its own good, but Sato and RLLR should be a little more centered. After all, they just won this race five years ago.

Five agonizingly long years ago.

3. Third on the grid looks a little more usual with Patricio O'Ward taking the outside of the front row at 232.098 mph. 

This is setting up to be O'Ward's race. He has a rookie who is diving straight into the deep end and a one-off entry next to him on the front row. I expected O'Ward to go right to the lead on the opening lap just to show dominance. Last year, O'Ward came painfully short of victory. He wants this race more than anything else in the world. This is a prime position for him, and he has a great chance to take charge early.

4. Scott Dixon leads an all-Honda and all-Chip Ganassi Racing-ish row four. Dixon was fourth at 232.052 mph. It was a little stunning Ganassi did not have the speed on Sunday. Álex Palou topped Saturday. Both cars made the Fast Six, but neither showed the strength for pole position. 

Last year, Dixon went from 21st to third, and he found himself in the conversation for victory in the closing laps. As close as O'Ward has been, Dixon has had about five close calls for victory in this race in the last decade. Dixon might not be the same force he once was, but he still has the ability to out maneuver whoever is in his way.

5. Felix Rosenqvist topped the Fast 12 session but could not find that little extra in the final round and his 231.987 mph average puts Rosenqvist fifth. The Swede has shown speed at Indianapolis the last few years, but he must make it to the finish. Last year, he lost an engine while the race was young. That isn't on him. 

The car is there, but considering what it takes to win the Indianapolis 500, we haven't seen Rosenqvist rise to occasions in IndyCar. He has a habit of qualifying well and then fading as races go along. I am sure he is hoping that history does not repeat itself.

6. It is hard to be disappointed with qualifying sixth, but Álex Palou probably believed he was the man to beat this weekend, and being fastest yesterday likely boosted his confidence. Ganassi might have been the team that did not much. After all, Prema did next to nothing ahead of today's qualifying sessions and won pole position. Palou wound up sixth at 231.378 mph. 

The focus is race. Palou has been on a historic tear to start the 2025 season, but he knows it will mostly be forgotten if he doesn't win the Indianapolis 500. This is the first, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth biggest race on the IndyCar calendar. He could win 15 of 17 races this year and most will forget about it before we even reach Christmas. This is the race that determines his legacy more than any other. 

Palou is a smart driver. He takes a sixth-place starting position and turns it into a victory more than any other driver. He is already over not winning pole position. He is already formulating his strategy to win the race, and it is likely going to be one that is difficult to beat. 

7. Absent from the Fast Six was Team Penske, and this Sunday turned into a rather conspicuous day for the organization as none of its three cars made a qualifying run. Scott McLaughlin had an accident in the afternoon practice session for the Fast 12. The team had no chance of getting a backup car ready for the Fast 12 session. 

Will Power and Josef Newgarden each had their cars fail pre-qualifying inspection and were not allowed to participate after a body fit violation was found on the attenuator. 

Gone was pole position. 

Gone was the Fast Six. 

Hello row four!

After last year's push-to-pass programming violation, Team Penske has been under extra scrutiny for anything it does. The severity of the infraction is not very clear, but it was not up to snuff, and many are suggesting this body fit violation was on the cars yesterday. Patricio O'Ward has already said the Penske cars should have been thrown into the last chance qualifying session. 

Infractions happen. Hélio Castroneves failed inspection before qualifying began yesterday and he lost his place in the first run through the line. Conor Daly failed after his first attempt yesterday. We don't know why those two failed, but neither was raked over the coals. Last year, Callum Ilott had his first run on Saturday disallowed when driving for McLaren. It just happened that both Penske cars ready for an attempt in the Fast 12 were found to have this minor issue but it was not compliant with the rulebook.

It would only be fair to believe all three Penske cars passed inspection yesterday after thorough inspection from IndyCar officials. The concern though is this was found on Josef Newgarden's car as he was going through inspection today. Will Power's car had already passed and was on pit lane. When they went to check Power's car on the grid, the attenuator was the same as Newgarden's and the team pulled out of the qualifying line as it had to make a change to the car, which is not allowed once a car passes inspection. 

The belief in major motorsports is every team is pushing it, and some violations aren't deliberate. There is no proof Team Penske got one pass the officials yesterday. The attenuator on McLaughlin's car was legal. It doesn't look like this was a deliberate effort from Team Penske to break the rules, but the benefit of the doubt has been stretched rather thin in IndyCar, especially after last year's push-to-pass infraction. 

This situation has not helped the perception of a Roger Penske-owned team not getting beneficial treatment in the Roger Penske-owned series. Obviously, the blind eye isn't being turned because Newgarden was disallowed to run today and Power was withdrawn from qualifying as well. Penske was penalized for its infractions last year. Team Penske is being penalized when found in violation of rules, but in the two most recent cases, the infraction has been found rather late in the game. 

The first instance was in the Long Beach warm-up session after Penske scored victory in St. Petersburg. The second was ahead of the second qualifying day for the Indianapolis 500 when Penske had all three cars advance to the Fast 12 after day one. 

This story is only getting started, and there will be more displeasure expressed in no time. For now, Team Penske has row four of the 109th Indianapolis 500 all to itself.  

8. Speaking of the fourth row, with none of those drivers making an attempt today, their order is set via their speeds from Saturday. That puts Scott McLaughlin in tenth, Josef Newgarden in 11th and Will Power in 12th. 

For this race, Team Penske is going to be fine. All three cars are going to work their way forward. It will at least be something to watch as the laps click down. 

McLaughlin will have his work cutout for him with a backup car. Team Penske did have a backup car ready in case one of its three drivers had an issue. I am sure that car will be in the ballpark. It might not be quite to his liking immediately, but McLaughlin will have Monday practice and Carb Day to get it into a zone. 

Newgarden has looked great all practice week. He is going to move forward and be a factor come race day. He was motivated last year after the penalties and the black eye he took. If you don't think he will be fired up on Sunday, you are mistaken.  

Power was only tenth after Saturday qualifying. We didn't see the Penske speed across the board. I have a feeling Power would have found something today if he had a run and he would have made the Fast Six. Last year, Power started second and he went backward in the race. I cannot imagine the team is going to repeat that performance in 2025.

9. We covered row four before we covered row three and all these individuals likely gained at least one if not three spots thanks to Team Penske's Sunday. 

David Malukas will start seventh. This has been Malukas' best event with A.J. Foyt Racing. He hasn't been outstandingly quick. At the end of no practice day did we compliment Malukas for his performance. I don't know where Malukas will shake out in the race. He hasn't looked like a contender, but he is closer to the front than most will be at the start, and the last time the seventh-place starter won the Indianapolis 500 it was a first-time winner, his team owner A.J. Foyt in 1961. That coincidence is falling in Malukas' favor.

10. Christian Lundgaard gets eighth on the grid, 20 spots better than his previous best starting position for the Indianapolis 500. Lundgaard has had a similar week as Malukas. Nothing all that brilliant, but Lundgaard has looked good. I am not sure anyone thought Lundgaard would make the Fast 12, but he had his best run come at the right time to sneak into the session. Lundgaard has been used to running at the back and watching himself at Indianapolis. Every year he has gained position. He should be comfortable in traffic, but he has never been this far up the order other than during pit cycles in this race. There will be plenty still to learn on the fly come Sunday.

11. And in ninth, the outside of row three, Marcus Ericsson will be the top Andretti Global car. Ericsson likely doubted he would be the top Andretti qualifier heading into Saturday. Being the first car on track yesterday likely gave Ericsson a top 12 spot. He hasn't looked all that competitive in practice. It isn't about what you deserve. Ericsson has gotten this opportunity, and he has a chance to make the most of it.

12. This might have been the most predictable Last Chance Qualifying session we have seen since this format was adopted ahead of the 2019 race. Marco Andretti ended up 31st at 229.741 mph. Marcus Armstrong was 32nd at 229.091 mph. Rinus VeeKay took 33rd, but not after a staggeringly stupid decision to withdraw his first run at 227.740 mph. 

VeeKay made a second run with just under six minutes to go. It was slower at 226.913 mph. The only save grace for VeeKay was he was against Jacob Abel, whose best run was a four-lap average at the 227.112 mph, but Abel had a hot car and the margin of error was next to nothing. Abel was unable to replicate that run and went 226.394 mph, missing the race. 

First off, VeeKay was going to be fine at 227.740 mph. There was no world where Abel was going to find over 6/10ths of a mile per hour over four laps to make the race. Abel was the slowest all week, and considerably slower than the rest of the field. It really feels like the team talked VeeKay into an additional run in hopes that he and Abel would knock down Armstrong, but that was never going to happen either. 

In no world was VeeKay going to find over 1.3 mph over four laps and Abel would jump nearly two miles per hour and run blindingly quicker than he has run all month to have both Coyne cars make the race. It wasn't going to happen. 

It is back to the drawing board for Dale Coyne Racing. Last year was bad with Nolan Siegel missing. To have a car miss in consecutive years when there have only been 34 entries speaks volumes to where Dale Coyne Racing is in the year 2025. That is without mentioning that this was the third consecutive year both DCR cars were in the last chance qualifying session. 

Dale Coyne Racing is being left behind. It had its glorious period from 2017 through 2019. It won races. It led the championship. It probably should have had an Indianapolis 500 pole position with Sébastien Bourdais. Those days are a distant memory, and they are not coming back anytime soon. 

Nothing is going to change. We have 40 years of history with this team. Those three seasons were an anomaly in the history of the team.

13. I don't believe Dale Coyne Racing will make the decision to withdraw VeeKay and put Jacob Abel with his Miller High Life sponsorship in the race. It has happened before. Twenty years ago, ten years ago, I think we would definitely see this happen. I don't think it happens this year, but it is possible. If it happens, don't pretend you were not warned. 

14. Qualifying weekend is complete, and it turned out to be an unthinkable session. Rookie pole-sitter. Team Penske controversy. A near bone-headed withdrawal. At least it wasn't boring.

15. Practice tomorrow. Practice on Friday. A week from now, we will be through the 109th Indianapolis 500. As quickly as it has arrived, the end is near. Summer is basically over, folks. Enjoy these last few days. 

First Impressions: 109th Indianapolis 500 Saturday Qualifying

1. For a first qualifying day where the final spot came down to a late Graham Rahal vs. Marco Andretti battle for 30th and Conor Daly made a last ditch effort to make the Fast 12, this was a pretty calm day, especially when it came to the Fast 12.

The fastest six cars today all had their qualifying runs come on their first attempt. Four of those cars never came out after their first attempt. Even then, eight of the Fast 12 made it based on their first qualifying time, and 11 of the Fast 12 drivers were in the Fast 12 before the first second attempt of the day occurred. 

The only change from the first run through the line to the end of the session was Kyffin Simpson was bumped from 12th and Christian Lundgaard took the final spot. 

There was hardly any drama for 12th until Conor Daly took to the track for the final attempt of the day. Daly was sitting in 21st and needed to find nearly 6/10ths of a mile per hour over four laps to crack the top 12. It looked like Daly was ruining the story as his run prevented Marco Andretti from making one final attempt to make the top 30. It turned out to be worth it.

Daly ended 0.0564 seconds short of making the Fast 12. Daly will start 13th, justifying his run, but that was closest it really came to feel like the Fast 12 mattering. 

2. The battle was at the back. For most of the day it felt rather incomplete because of Marcus Armstrong's practice accident and Colton Herta's accident on his first qualifying run. Half of the drivers on the outside had yet to complete a run for the first five-and-a-half hours of qualifying. The driver in 29th really didn't feel like 29th. We were playing the waiting game until those final two drivers came out. 

Sitting in the drop zone for a third consecutive year was Graham Rahal. Despite his teammates being spread over spots in the Fast 12 and with a cushion in the low-20s, Rahal was again on the outside and struggling to keep his car flat through the corners. On Rahal's second run of the day, he got in the top 30, knocking out Rinus VeeKay and putting Andretti between Rahal and the bubble. 

Colton Herta was the first of the repaired cars to take to the track for a qualifying run. With no shakedown laps on the car, Herta took a car that was meant for short ovals and put it 29th, knocking out his teammate Andretti, and placing Rahal 30th.

For one hour, Rahal sat on the bubble. 

Armstrong made it to the circuit, but did not have the speed on either of his attempts. VeeKay made a run at it and didn't come all that close. Abel waived off his second of two attempts today, and his only attempt to re-enter the top 30. Marco Andretti made multiple runs at it.

Andretti went out two cars after Herta and fell short. The car cooled and Andretti's fourth attempt was his best of the day, but at 229.859 mph, Andretti was 0.0028 seconds shy of the top 30. Rahal makes the race and gets a much-deserved Sunday of rest. Andretti will lead the four-car fight for the final three spots.

3. No one wants to be in the last chance qualifying session, but Marco Andretti should not panic. His fastest two runs were 229.859 mph and 229.857 mph. Of the other three qualifiers, the closest was Rinus VeeKay at 229.519 mph. Marcus Armstrong never completed a four-lap run, but you can afford one car to beat you in the last chance qualifying session. You don't want two cars to beat you and live on the bubble, tempting fate. 

Andretti should feel good even if it is a challenging situation. That car has the speed to make the field. Just don't over think it.

4. This must have been a difficult day for Marcus Armstrong because at the start of the day it felt like he would be a contender for the Fast 12. One practice crash and you are floating out in space. Perhaps you will land on the moon or you could float hopelessly into infinity.

Armstrong expressed confidence after he was cleared to return to the car. There are plenty of unknowns though. He did two runs. The first was clearly a shakedown run. The second started well but tailed off quickly. There will be a practice session tomorrow afternoon to get the car sorted, but it is a limited chance to get settled before the most pivotal qualifying run of Armstrong's career.

5. It does feel like one of the Dale Coyne Racing cars will miss the race for a second consecutive year, and it does not feel great for Jacob Abel.

The only four-lap run Abel completed was at 226.859 mph. The next slowest run was Graham Rahal's first run at 228.686 mph. Every other attempt was over 229 mph. 

The speed could be there, but that is a mighty gap for Abel to overcome. It is almost identical to what Nolan Siegel experienced last year. 

I am a little surprised Rinus VeeKay is in this spot. I knew VeeKay was not making the Fast 12 and keeping up his incredible tear of starting no worse than seventh in the Indianapolis 500. I thought he could qualify in-between 18th and 27th. Not brilliant but good enough to make the race. 

It is a little sad to see Coyne in this spot for a third consecutive year. Two years ago, both cars survived. Last year, Siegel was knocked out. This year, there is a good chance one of its cars will miss the race again, and that is kind of the sign of the times with the DW12 and this engine formula. It feels like Dale Coyne Racing is being left behind, and I don't see it coming back without heavy investment. 

6. We must acknowledge the possibility that it doesn't matter which Dale Coyne Racing car is bumped, and Jacob Abel will be in the race no matter what happens tomorrow.

For everything I have said about DCR being left behind, the team did get Miller High Life to sponsor one of its cars as a one-off sponsorship. Yes, it is as a tribute to Danny Sullivan's 1985 Indianapolis 500 winner as Abel, a fellow Kentuckian, is attempting to make his first "500" 40 years after Sullivan's victory. 

I cannot imagine Miller High Life not being in the race. There is a chance the sponsorship could just move to VeeKay's car if VeeKay makes it and Abel doesn't, but we should prepare ourselves for a backroom deal deciding the final spot on the grid. 

7. Let's move to the front of the grid. Álex Palou was fastest at 233.043 mph. Scott McLaughlin was net at 233.013 mph. Josef Newgarden was the third car over 233 mph at 233.004 mph. No surprises in the top three. No surprises in the top five with Patricio O'Ward fourth at 232.820 mph and Scott Dixon fifth at 232.659 mph. 

Pretty predictable. One of those five will likely win pole position tomorrow. 

8. The highlight of the day was Robert Shwartzman. The fourth qualifier of the day, Shwartzman ran a 232.584-mph average and he was never in doubt of missing the Fast 12. Add to it that Callum Ilott qualified 23rd and wasn't really at risk of the last chance qualifying session, Prema could not have asked for a better first time qualifying for the Indianapolis 500.

This winter, when Mike Cannon left the team over a week after joining the Prema operation, Prema was criticized as not respecting Cannon, and many believed the team was making an uneducated mistake. The team was labeled as stubborn due to its European roots and unwilling to work with Cannon. 

How is Prema doing now? It has been a tough year for the new team. The results in the first five races have been poor, but in its first trip to Indianapolis, it put a car in the Fast 12 and neither car was at risk of missing the race.

I hope you are all enjoying crow.

9. David Malukas, Felix Rosenqvist, Takuma Sato, Will Power, Marcus Ericsson and Christian Lundgaard round out the Fast 12. 

Again, there was no real drama in the Fast 12 proceedings. Lundgaard was the one guy to squeeze his way in on an additional attempt, but that move didn't really make any waves when it happened. 

Eight teams are represented in the Fast 12. All three Team Penske drivers made it. Chip Ganassi Racing and Arrow McLaren each had two cars advance. Then we have Prema, A.J. Foyt Racing, Meyer Shank Racing, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Andretti Global. 

There is plenty of representation, and pole position will go to either Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing. 

10. We do live in this period of inevitability. We aren't going to see a surprise. Penske or Ganassi will end up on top. McLaren isn't really an upset if either O'Ward or Lundgaard wins please pole position. 

Felix Rosenqvist was eighth and four-tenths of a second off Palou's fastest run. He isn't overcoming that. Shwartzman's story is not going to lead in pole position as a rookie. Malukas isn't doing it. Sato isn't doing it. Ericsson is probably happy just to be there. 

Save your energy. Don't get too caught up in hope.

11. It was a good run from Daly. He has shown good speed all week. Alexander Rossi fell short of making the Fast 12, and for the first time in the team's history, Ed Carpenter Racing has failed to make the Fast Nine/Fast 12 at the Indianapolis 500. Nothing lasts forever, and Rossi will start 14th. 

Kyffin Simpson rebounded nicely from yesterday's accident in practice to qualify 15th. Simpson was never in danger of falling out of the top 30. That was a good response today. That is row five. 

12. Row six will be Ed Carpenter, Santino Ferrucci and Devlin DeFrancesco. Carpenter was fine. Ferrucci had better pace, but didn't quite get to that next level. He has moved up from starting spots in the middle of the field before. Ferrucci will be fine on race day. DeFrancesco looked comfortable for a team not known for its comfort in qualifying in recent years. 

13. Row seven features Sting Ray Robb, Christian Rasmussen and Kyle Larson. Robb had good opening laps on his qualifying runs, but the speed didn't last over ten miles. Rasmussen, the best finishing rookie from last year's race, is a spot ahead of Larson, last year's Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year. Oh, God works in mysterious ways!

Larson will have some work to do from 21st on the grid. It isn't fifth like last year, but I think this is a good thing. Larson will not be bouncing from Indianapolis to North Wilkesboro tomorrow. He can go to North Wilkesboro and not worry about Indianapolis. He doesn't have another qualifying run to worry about. This is a blessing in disguise. 

14. Row eight has Louis Foster, Callum Ilott and Hélio Castroneves. Foster looked good on each run. His first run had him on row seven. When he went out for a second run and got back up to eighth. Not bad for Foster. Ilott didn't have that same pace as Shwartzman, but I am not sure Shwartzman knew he had that pace. I think Prema would have been happy with Ilott in 23rd and if Shwartzman ended anywhere between 18th and 27th. This was a glorious day for the Italian team.

I am a little surprised Castroneves was not more competitive. He had to wait until the end of the first run through the qualifying line due to his car failing inspection prior to qualifying. His first run was a 229.634-mph average. That set the tone for his qualifying day. That time would not have cracked the top 30. He had to run fast enough to avoid the last chance qualifying session. It limits what risks to take. He got into the top 30 but wasn't pushing for much greater than that. 

15. This was a disappointing day for Andretti Global. Ericsson made the Fast 12, but Kyle Kirkwood was first, first, second and third on the no-tow report over the four practice days, and Kirkwood was never close to the Fast 12. He was 30th in the qualifying line. That didn't help, but the team didn't even find the speed on a later run to move him up the order. Kirkwood will have the inside of row nine in 25th. 

Nolan Siegel will be in the middle, and I am sure he is thankful to make the race after missing last year. I don't think he wanted to be the slowest Arrow McLaren car in 26th. Slowest and in 16th? Ok, not the worst spot to be in. In his almost full year since joining McLaren, Siegel is routinely way out of the picture from the other McLaren cars, more so than other drivers who have been canned for better results.

16. I am going to cover the two Dreyer & Reinbold Racing cars here, because Ryan Hunter-Reay will be on the outside of row nine and Jack Harvey will be on the inside of row ten. They went out sixth and seventh in the first pass through the line. They only had 0.0101 seconds between them after their fastest four-lap runs. At least the cars are even. I think D&R expected to be a little higher up the order. I didn't think both these cars would have been that close to the day one bubble.

17. This does feel like a missed opportunity for Colton Herta. Herta was fourth on the no-tow report yesterday. Andretti Global had high expectations to get at least two cars into the Fast 12. Instead, it has one car on row nine, one car on row ten and possibly one car on row 11 or missing the race. The team will have a lot of work to do on race day, but you are forgiven if you are already writing off Andretti Global for winning this race. 

18. Third time was the charm for Graham Rahal, as he locks himself into a top 30 spot and will avoid the last chance qualifying session. I bet Rahal wishes he was somewhere between DeFrancesco and Foster in 20th and far from this trouble spot. 

It must be frustrating to see Sato make the Fast 12 for the second consecutive year and have two teammates that are not blisteringly quick but at least fast enough that they are not in danger of having to run on Sunday. 

I don't know what Rahal needs to do. We know the team made changes ahead of last year, and last year was not much better. However, Rahal is the only RLLR driver sweating making the top 30. The team made steps this year. None of its cars missed the top 30, but Rahal still has the longest way to go. I don't know what he needs, but he must talk to somebody. 

I feel like there is mental block that is preventing Rahal from getting to a position where he can at least comfortably making the race. It feels like he knows he is so far off the top but every change he makes ends up making it more difficult for him to make the top 30. He almost gets in his way and cannot live with a 16th-place car, but the only direct he can go from is backward. He almost needs to work on just being average and accept that rather than being frustrated when things are not perfect.

Rahal needs an entirely new approach to Indianapolis Motor Speedway. I almost want to suggest looking for a different team. Step away from the family team for Indianapolis only. It might be the only option at this point. 

19. I have written about this before. I think we need to limit qualifying attempt. There were 76 attempts made today. My issue is the number of attempts that were nothing. We had 12 waived attempts today. We had plenty of attempts that weren't changing much. Some of those waived attempts were Scott Dixon and Patricio O'Ward going out while in the top five and just shaking down the car for two laps. They had no reason to go out. They were not at risk of being knocked out of the top 12, and there is no incentive to be fastest on day one. 

I kind of wish a team had to withdraw its time to re-qualify. It makes these qualifying runs carry some weight to them. There is no reason for anyone to get jazzed up about Alexander Rossi making his fourth attempt of the day when he has failed to crack the top 12 on his first two additional attempts. 

There should at least be a limit so these teams aren't making minuscule changes and hoping for massive leaps in speed. There must be a risk to making another run. "If we waive this one then we only have one more shot at." If the attempts are unlimited, the teams aren't putting the best thought into their adjustments.

I think a limit will help teams. Now it feels like teams are just making minor tweaks and not getting anything out of it. If there was a limit, teams would have to really think about what they must do different to try and make the top 12 or top 30. I think we would have more educated changes to cars and we would see more movement. 

When cars are just constantly taking to the track and there aren't that high of stakes, it is pretty dull to watch over nearly seven hours. 

How about compromise? You get one attempt where you time is not withdrawn. However, you get two attempts where your time must be withdrawn. Each team gets a maximum of four attempts, and if they need to use their third, there will be some consequences. 

20. I was actually thinking about this on Daly's final attempt.

Daly took to the track and there was just under four minutes left. Daly left from the non-priority lane and kept his time as Andretti was not in the priority lane yet to block him. If Daly went out and spun on lap one, hitting the wall and ending the qualifying session with time left on the clock, Daly would have kept Andretti from a qualifying run AND Daly would have kept his spot on the grid. 

In any other qualifying session, if an accident occurs and it draws a red flag, that driver is losing out. If you bring out a red flag in qualifying on a street course or road course you lose your time. But for the Indianapolis 500, if you go out from the non-priority lane and have an accident, you are fine! Your time still stands, and you are still in the race. 

That is a little absurd because we could see an accident where a car spins, gets airborne, clips the catchfence and tear a large hole in it, the driver walks away and his fine, but the catchfence requires a lengthy repair. If such an accident happens with an hour to go, the session is over. No one else is getting back on the racetrack for the day. That one driver ended the session and ended a lot of hopes of making the top 12 or top 30.

That shouldn't be the case. It is something to think about. I don't think every qualifying attempt for the Indianapolis 500 should come with no stakes to lose, especially because every qualifying run takes over four minutes from the time the car leaves to start its out-lap to the checkered flag. It isn't a case where a qualifying run takes 40 seconds. 

Nothing will change until something happens. That is how IndyCar works, but this should be adjusted. I am not saying throw everything out. There is a lot of good with this system and I feel like this was the first time in about 25 years we didn't go into qualifying day with people asking what the format was. That is a victory in and of itself.

I am saying adjust it to make it better and clear up some of these grey areas. 

21. Onto tomorrow. The Fast 12 and the bottom four will each have their own one-hour practice session in the early afternoon. The Fast 12 session will begin at 4:05 p.m. The one-hour Last Chance Qualifying will begin at 5:15 p.m. with the Fast Six following at 6:25 p.m. 

22. For all that has happened over the last few days and for all the Indianapolis 500 qualifying sessions I have watched, I don't feel tense about tomorrow. There are not going to be any surprises. We know how tomorrow will play out. Use common sense and don't overthink it.

109th Indianapolis 500 Qualifying Preview

Nerves are a plenty ahead of qualification weekend for the 109th Indianapolis 500. This week's practice proved to be more trying than in recent years as teams worked to find the balance of the cars with the added hybrid system, as well as searching for the most efficient way to deploy the system while on a four-lap run. 

Uncertainty reigned when practice concluded yesterday evening. The security of a stable car that can complete four laps at wide-open throttle was not abundant through Gasoline Alley. A vast majority were unable to complete a mock run without feathering the throttle through a corner or two. 

Thirty-four drivers will be faced with having to complete a run even if it is not the most comfortable conditions, and the questionable conditions go beyond the race car. Mother Nature will not make it easy with winds expected to pummel every car that takes the track on the first qualifying day.

What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?

The track will open at 8:30 a.m. ET for a one-hour practice session on Saturday morning. It will be one final chance for teams to shakedown their cars before qualifying begins. 

Saturday's qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET and run through 5:50 p.m. ET. At the end of Saturday's session, the fastest 12 will be locked into the first four rows and will compete on Sunday over two rounds for pole position. Cars ranked 13th through 30th will be locked in their starting positions for the 109th Indianapolis 500. The slowest four qualifiers from Saturday will compete in the Last Chance Qualifying session on Sunday afternoon. 

On Sunday, the first on-track action will be a one-hour practice at 1:00 p.m. for the Fast 12 participants. The Last Chance Qualifiers will get an hour practice following at 2:00 p.m. 

The Fast 12 session will begin at 4:05 p.m. on Sunday. Each team will make one run with the top six advancing to the Fast Six round to determine pole position. 

At 5:15 p.m., the Last Chance Qualifying session will begin. Each team will get one guaranteed qualifying run, but the team's will have until 6:15 p.m. ET to run as many qualifying attempts as they can to make the race. The fastest three times will the 11th row for the Indianapolis 500. The slowest qualifier will not make the race.

The Fast Six session will be held at 6:25 p.m. with the fastest from this round winning pole position.

What is the Weather Forecast?

Overnight rain has brought cooler temperatures and faster winds to Speedway, Indiana.

Temperatures will be around 61º F for the morning practice session but winds will already be blowing at around 16 mph from the West under sunny skies. Gusts could get up to 40 mph over the course of the day. Some clouds should come over the circuit as qualifying begins with the temperatures around 63º F. It will be a slow rise in temperatures, but the high of 67° F will be hit around 3:00 p.m. Clouds should remain over the rest of the session. 

For Sunday, temperatures should increase as does the sunlight, but winds should drop. It will be around 67º F for the pre-qualifying practice session, but the winds will only be around 8 mph from the Southwest. When the Fast 12 session begins, temperatures will have increased to around 73º F but with winds remaining unchanged. The temperature should remain stable through the end of the qualifying session.

What is the Qualifying Order?

1. Marcus Ericsson

2. Patricio O'Ward

3. Kyffin Simpson

4. Robert Shwartzman

5. Alexander Rossi

6. Ryan Hunter-Reay

7. Jack Harvey

8. Christian Lundgaard

9. Marcus Armstrong

10. Graham Rahal

11. Nolan Siegel

12. Conor Daly

13. Felix Rosenqvist

14. Scott Dixon

15. Colton Herta

16. David Malukas

17. Santino Ferrucci

18. Will Power

19. Kyle Larson

20. Hélio Castroneves

21. Takuma Sato

22. Ed Carpenter

23. Marco Andretti

24. Jacob Abel

25. Álex Palou

26. Louis Foster

27. Scott McLaughlin

28. Sting Ray Robb

29. Christian Rasmussen

30. Kyle Kirkwood

31. Devlin DeFrancesco

32. Callum Ilott

33. Josef Newgarden

34. Rinus VeeKay

How different will this qualifying session be from previous years?

From what we observed in Friday practice, very. 

The extra weight from the hybrid session has made the car more difficult to handle, and a substantial number of mock qualifying runs yesterday were aborted out of precaution over handling. Teams will not have that option in qualifying. Only so many runs can be waived off before a time must be put on the board. 

It appears we will see drivers regularly pedaling the cars through the corners, especially at the end of qualifying runs as the tires wear. Times will probably be fractionally slower than what we saw last year, and it feels likely we will see a greater spread between the fastest and slowest qualifier. Last year, 2.8379 seconds covered Scott McLaughlin in first and Graham Rahal in 33rd, the fifth-closest field in the event's history. Last year's field had the second-fastest average speed at 231.943 mph, behind only 2023's average of 232.184 mph.

Last year's fastest lap in the Friday practice was Colton Herta was at 234.974 mph. McLaughlin ran the fastest lap yesterday at 233.954 mph. 

What we did see during Friday practice was drivers running faster laps on third and even the fourth lap of a mock qualifying run as the hybrid energy was deployed. Teams deployed the energy in different ways and at different times during a qualifying run. Unlike previous years when we kind of have an idea where a qualifying run will shake out at the end of the third qualifying lap, we could see a number of cars get a boast at the end of a run and be a spot or two higher than thought. 

Who is in play for the Fast 12?

It does not feel as obvious as some previous years. 

Team Penske should be fine. McLaughlin set the fastest lap in Friday practice. Josef Newgarden was second, third and first over the first three days. Will Power topped Tuesday and was second on Wednesday. 

When it comes to the no-tow report, Kyle Kirkwood was first, first, second and third over the four practice days. That is an average of 1.75. The next closet was Newgarden, who averaged a 7.25 no-tow position and who topped Thursday's no-tow report. McLaughlin was fourth-best at an average of 8.75 with Conor Daly as a surprise third on the no-tow average after running fourth, 14th, seventh and eighth over the four days. 

Though he was 27th in the no-tow report on Tuesday, Colton Herta was fourth, fifth and fourth over the final three days. Power had an average no-tow position of 13th, tied for sixth-best with Kyffin Simpson. 

Chip Ganassi Racing did not have a car ranked better than eighth in the no-tow report over the first three practice days only for Scott Dixon and Álex Palou to go 1-2 on Friday. Though they were not at the top of no-tow reports, Dixon and Palou were leading overall each day. 

Dixon had the best average overall practice result. His average was third after ranking fourth, fourth, second and second over the four practice days. Palou had the next best average at 3.25. He ranked third, first, sixth and third. 

Last year, nine of the Fast 12 participants ranked in the top 12 of average no-tow report position over the three practice days. Focusing just on Friday practice and the no-tow report, the top seven drivers in no-tow times from Friday made the Fast 12 and nine of the top 12 in the no-tow report from last year's Fast Friday practice session made the Fast 12. The other three were ranked 13th (Rinus Veekay), 15th (Kyle Larson) and 18th (Ryan Hunter-Reay).

The top 12 in the no-tow report in this year's Friday practice session were Dixon, Palou, Kirkwood, Herta, McLaughlin, Power, Christian Lundgaard, Daly, Marcus Armstrong, Sting Ray Robb, Felix Rosenqvist and Takuma Sato. 

What will it take to clinch the top 30?

It required a four-lap average at 231.100 mph to make the top 30 last year. In 2023, it required a four-lap average of 231.070 mph to make the top 30.

With how Friday practice played out, I don't know if that many drivers can put up four-lap runs over 231 mph. If anything, we will see the four-lap averages to make the top 30 drop by a good margin. Drivers were struggling to complete one lap at 230 mph, let alone complete a four-lap run at that speed. 

It is kind of an open door as to what the floor will be to avoid the Last Chance Qualifying session. If a number of drivers are struggling to hold the throttle flat over an entire run, it will be a slower speed than recent years. It could be a four-lap average in the 228-mph range if multiple drivers are struggling with handling. 

We could see a number of drivers call it a day if his first attempt is solid and he was able to at least limit the number of times he lifted over a qualifying run.

Who is in the most danger of missing the 109th Indianapolis 500?

Like the top of the list, it is not as clear as previous years. 

The two names we are most concerned about are Kyffin Simpson and Kyle Larson, the two drivers who suffered accidents in Friday practice. 

Simpson spun in turn four and smacked the outside and inside walls, writing off his car and leaving him with his backup car, which was used during the April test. Larson spun in turn three and hit the wall square with the front before hitting the wall square with the rear in the middle of turn four.

There are fewer concerns with Larson because his car was lightly damaged in comparison with Simpson's car. Larson's damage was mostly to the front and rear wings and attenuator, quick repairs as the chassis remained undamaged. All were fixed and Larson was able to return to the track with 30 minutes remaining in Friday practice for a shakedown. 

While Simpson had ranked in the top ten of the no-tow report over the first two days, he ranked 22nd, 27th and 21st overall over the first three days. We saw last year Marcus Ericsson went from a comfortable qualifier to someone who had to sweat out the last chance qualifying session after he had an accident in practice. 

Going on the speeds alone, it is not as clear, nor did anyone look all that worried throughout practice week.

Based on the average no-tow report result, the bottom six drivers were Callum Ilott (23.5), Nolan Siegel (24), Ryan Hunter-Reay (24.25), Rinus VeeKay (24.25), Santino Ferrucci (24.333) and Jack Harvey (26.26). Larson was just ahead of this group at 22.25, but his 33rd from the Friday no-tow report does knock him down. His average over the first three days was 18.667. 

When it comes the average overall results, the bottom six were Jacob Abel (25.25), Simpson (26), Graham Rahal (26.25), Robert Shwartzman (26.5), Ilott (28.5) and Ferrucci (29.5).

We entered this weekend concerned about Prema in its Indianapolis debut, and the results didn't look great at the start, nor did the lack of laps run on Tuesday, but the team has sounded quietly sure of themselves. Shwartzman's Friday boasted the team's confidence as he was 13th overall and 13th in the no-tow report. The Israeli driver ranked sixth and 14th in the no-tow report over Wednesday and Thursday. 

Despite having three years of experience at Indianapolis, Ilott is in a sketchy position. Prema has some speed, but is it enough for both cars to be securely in the race? 

Santino Ferrucci was the most vocally upset about his car this week, but the team seemed to turn a curve on Thursday, reverting back to some old setups.  

The next most upset was Graham Rahal, though he appeared to also feel more comfortable by the end of Friday.

While Dale Coyne Racing has not been bad, it also hasn't been as strong as they would appear. Rinus VeeKay was 13th overall on Thursday, but he was 24th or worse overall in the other three days. Jacob Abel was not better than 20th overall during the four practice days, and Abel was 23rd and 26th in the no-tow report the final two days.

Who got a favorable qualifying draw?

Patricio O'Ward, and McLaren as a whole, has not shown threatening speed this month, so getting second on the track might be a good pull for him. The same is true for Christian Lundgaard rolling out in eighth. 

Shwartzman is going out fourth. He could make his day with one strong run early and then he can breathe for the rest of the afternoon. 

Alexander Rossi has looked good, but not great this weekend, and the no-tow speed was not shown on Thursday or Friday. Going out fifth could lift his efforts of being a Fast 12 surprise. 

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has its two cars going out sixth and seventh with Ryan Hunter-Reay ahead of Jack Harvey. Hunter-Reay might not be able to repeat his Fast 12 performance of a year ago, but both cars are in a position to make the most of the conditions and put themselves solidly in the field.

Marcus Armstrong is a sleeper for the Fast 12, and going out ninth could put him high up the order early. Armstrong's average overall position from practice was 9.5 as he had three days ranked in the top ten. His was ninth on the no-tow report on Friday.

Graham Rahal should feel good being the tenth car out. If Rahal can put together a run that is faster than Kyffin Simpson and the two Dreyer & Reinbold cars going out before him, he should be pleased with how his qualifying effort will fall.

Who is handcuffed thanks to the qualifying draw?

Simpson drew third last year, and it helped him avoid the last row battle. This year, drawing third could be another blessing but if the team is not ready with his repaired car, it could mean Simpson will be unable to take his spot in line and he will have to wait until the other 33 cars go through the qualifying line. That is a difference of starting a qualifying run around 11:08 a.m. or around 1:15 p.m. 

A handful of quick cars are going out late. Álex Palou is going out 25th, two cars before Scott McLaughlin. Kyle Kirkwood is 30th and Josef Newgarden is 33rd. It will be early in the afternoon, but the track temperature will continue to rise as these four are due to take to the circuit. All four may forgo their spot in line and wait to make their first qualifying run until conditions improve later in the afternoon. 

When it comes to the last row battle, the draw was not kind to Louis Foster (26th), Devlin DeFrancesco (31st), Ilott (32nd) and Rinus VeeKay (34th).

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and Dale Coyne Racing has had at least one participant in the Last Chance Qualifying session in each of the last two years. Each team has had a car fail to qualify in the last two years. Going out late is not what these teams would have hoped for. It doesn't help DCR that Jacob Abel is going out 24th either.  

For RLLR, there is some hope that a good run early from Rahal could guide the team as its other cars wait to qualify.

What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?

Last year, 20 of the top 30 at the end of Saturday qualifying made it based on their first attempt speed. Of the Fast 12, six made it based on their first qualifying run. Four of those times were among the first ten drivers in the qualifying order.

Will Power set the fastest time after being ninth in line. Scott McLaughlin was second in line and second fastest on Saturday. Josef Newgarden was tenth on track and third at the end first day Kyle Kirkwood was the first qualifier and his time stood to be fifth-quickest on the day.

The other two drivers to make the Fast 12 based on their first qualifying attempt were Felix Rosenqvist (24th in line) and Santino Ferrucci (13th). 

Alexander Rossi's first qualifying run would have been fastest to make the Fast 12, however, Rossi's first qualifying run did not come in its scheduled spot. Rossi was one of four drivers last year to pull out of line and forgo his scheduled first attempt. Coincidentally, Rossi drew 34th last year. It wasn't that significant of a delay until his actual first attempt. Rossi's first attempt put him fourth, and his second attempt remained fourth, but improved by 0.107 mph.

This was the second consecutive year that half of the Fast 12 made it based on their first qualifying run, but the big difference from 2023 to 2024 is where those drivers came in the qualifying order. 

In 2023, only one of those six drivers drew in the first ten cars. Four of those qualifiers drew 21st or later in the qualifying line. 

Four of the Fast 12 made it on their second attempt. Patricio O'Ward made it on his third, and Rinus VeeKay made it on his fourth attempt after he had an accident on his first run.

Of the ten drivers who made the top 30 last year based on an additional qualifying run, seven made it based on their second run, two made it based on their third, and VeeKay was the only one to lock up a spot based on his fourth attempt. 

Seventy-four qualifying runs were attempted last year on Saturday, 19 of which were waved off, and one of which was disallowed. Callum Ilott's first attempt, a four-lap average of 231.995 mph, was taken off the board after his car failed inspection for an illegal left-rear wheel offset. That run would have been good enough for 18th on Saturday had it been allowed to stand.

Desperate Changes are Good Changes for IndyCar Schedule

It isn't often we see scheduling news midseason for the season we are currently contesting, but yesterday came an unexpected change to a handful of upcoming events on the 2025 IndyCar calendar.

Five start times have been adjusted for the upcoming rounds at Gateway Motorsports Park, Road America, Mid-Ohio, the second Iowa race and Toronto. Gateway is the most notable one as the race has moved from a 3:00 p.m. ET start on Sunday June 15 to a 8:00 p.m. start that same night, the first Sunday primetime race shown on network television in IndyCar history. Road America has moved from 3:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m., Mid-Ohio and Iowa each move from 2:00 p.m. to 1:00 p.m., and Toronto has moved from 2:00 p.m. to noon. 

According to IndyCar's press released these changes were made to "capitalize on opportunities to further build an audience for North America's premier open-wheel series." 

Translation: These races are moving to avoid conflicts with NASCAR races among other things. 

Credit must be given to Fox for accommodating these changes. It is not easy to shift around the pieces of the television programming jigsaw puzzle. However, let's acknowledge these changes are desperate changes. No series shifts start times this significantly if things are going well. And before you say they shift start times for NFL games, there is a difference between a week 16 game moving from 1:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. because the two teams are tied for the division lead and this game has national interest for its playoff implications and moving a race a month out when television viewership has been disappointing at best. 

These are desperate changes, but good changes nonetheless. IndyCar needed something to be done, and after its television rating struggles over the first quarter of the season, an adjustment had to be made.

 It isn't going to flip the script. Ratings are not going to shoot through the roof just on these changes. IndyCar must recognize its struggles to generate consistent viewership are on the series' inability to reach an audience of existing motorsports fans and an inability to convey an intriguing story for the causal viewer to tune in. Shifting these start times helps draw some eyes who are otherwise occupied at the previously scheduled times. It does not solve the greater issues. 

It must also be recognized that this all could have been avoided from the start. When IndyCar announced its new television deal with Fox on June 14, 2024, it released the 2025 schedule as well, and it was said the schedule was constructed with Fox to make sure all the races ended up on network television. Many of these conflicts were not surprises. The 2025 NASCAR schedule did not come out until August, but we would have known the start times for many of those races even if they were not immediately released. 

NASCAR's first race in Mexico City was going to be a mid-afternoon race. The same is true for the Chicago race and Sonoma. It might not have been written in stone, but anyone in-the-know would be aware that there would be a NASCAR race happening around 3:00 p.m. or 3:30 p.m. on those days, and it would be best to make sure your festivities are wrapped up before then. 

IndyCar's released its start times for the 2025 schedule on December 18, 2024. It was still early, but late enough to know what times to avoid.

Most of these adjustments should help the at-track experience as well as the television number. Since returning to the schedule a decade ago, Road America has been around a noon start time local. The original 2:30 p.m. start seemed like a significant jump at a track where the circuits bigwigs have said it knows an earlier start is better for those who are traveling back to the Chicago-area post-race. 

An hour adjustment is hardly a change at all. Most people attending a race are there well over an hour before the race begins. Mid-Ohio and Iowa should not see many issues with that adjustment. Toronto should also be fine at noon even if it is two hours earlier. 

The concern is Gateway. Primetime races on network have been non-existent for IndyCar, and rightful so as viewership has never warranted the real estate. Outside of the 2013 Texas race on ABC and the 2020 Texas race on NBC, I cannot recall any other primetime network races, and those were both held on Saturday nights. A Sunday night in June is one of the least desirable television time. People are home and watching television as there is work the next day, but many people aren't flocking to the television in the summer time. In some areas, Gateway will be starting well before sunset. People will still be out and about. 

It is a good window to have, and it shows Fox believes it is worth giving IndyCar such a valuable spot even though general television viewership is down that time of the year. 

Gateway's issue is the track itself. Again, it is one thing to change a football game from an afternoon to primetime start. A motorsports event is a different, and more complicated animal. For starters, most people attending an NFL game are likely from within an hour driving distance of the stadium. Even the people that travelled in for the game are likely staying Sunday night. If you flew to a city for an NFL game, even a 1:00 p.m. game, you are staying in that city on Sunday night. Very few people are going from the game straight to the airport. 

Motorsports, and IndyCar in particular, is not like that. Almost every race is a day trip. It is a fanbase that looks to minimize cost. When it comes to IndyCar, a great number of people are driving across the Midwest to attend a race. If it is a three-hour drive one-way to the circuit, they will do it. They will leave at 9:00 a.m., arrive at noon for a 2:00 p.m. race and then leave the track at 5:30 p.m. to be back by 8:30 p.m. or 9:00 p.m. It is a full day. 

We cannot immediately solve IndyCar's problems of finding a way to attract a healthy local audience in the markets for its races and not rely on the Deadhead-esque commitment from a portion of the fanbase, but at the moment that portion is too great to ignore. Shifting a race from the mid-afternoon to primetime, especially on a Sunday, is a costly move. 

If Gateway was scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Sunday from the start, people would have managed. Some would have said no because they cannot get Monday off from work. A good number would adjust and get a hotel for Sunday night. Changing that start time a month prior to the race is at a detriment to the small congregation that IndyCar can attract on a regular basis. That is a significant change to a weekend plan. 

Those who had the day trip plan now have to consider getting a hotel or taking off from work on Monday. Those who had hotels on Saturday night might have to add another night. It is not cheaper to get a hotel closer to an event. It isn't just an extra cost but an extra cost at a higher price than if the spectators had four or five months notice on this start time. 

It will help with television, but IndyCar and the racetracks that host the series are more dependent on gate revenue than NASCAR. For the optics alone, IndyCar cannot afford to race in front of empty grandstands. This late change does risk making Gateway look worse than it would have been. Hopefully, enough people can make the adjustment and still attending while also attracting a fair number who could not have made an afternoon race but can make a night race.

These adjustments should help television, and it is nice to see IndyCar and Fox could work on eliminating some of the overlap with NASCAR races. However, this cannot be a yearly thing. It is bad enough it had to be done once. There is enough wherewithal in the management offices for both the series and the broadcast partner to know what conflicts should be avoided and how that can be accommodated. Some clashes are inevitable. You cannot schedule every race according to another series, but there are a fair number of conflicts that could have been avoided from the start. 

Let's hope that is the lesson learned early for next year. 

109th Indianapolis 500 Practice Preview

The results of the first five races of the 2025 NTT IndyCar Series season and the following 11 rounds will be shelved for two weeks, as all attention turns to preparations for the 109th Indianapolis 500. 

Practice week is here and with 34 entries, everyone will be competing to beat one car to make the race. Some will have their eyes turned to the front of the grid and setting the tone for the rest of May leading to race day on May 25. 

It will be a key time for everyone to make sure their cars are the most suitable for the week ahead. It will also be key to get through this week without any trouble. One accident can turn a midfield team into a bubble risk. Contenders can become pretenders. 

Some teams have a clue where they stand after the two-day test at the end of April, but now is show time and the click is ticking on how the legacy will shake out.

What is the schedule?

Practice begins on Tuesday May 13 with a two-hour session for all 34 cars at noon. ET. After that session, the track will be open for Tony Kanaan to complete his refresher program from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m., if needed. After the refresher program is complete, all 34 entries will be able to return to practice, which will end at 6:00 p.m.

Over the next three days, practice will run for six hours starting at noon each day. On Friday May 16, the qualification draw will take place after practice at 6:15 p.m. 

On Saturday May 17, there will be a one-hour practice beginning at 8:30 a.m. for all cars. Qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. and run until 5:50 p.m. 

The fastest 12 cars at the end of Saturday will advance to the Fast 12 session on Sunday. The 13th through 30th qualifiers will be locked into the race and have their starting position secured for the 109th Indianapolis 500. The slowest four qualifiers will run int he Last Chance Qualifying session.

Sunday May 19 will begin with a one-hour practice for the top 12 qualifiers starting at noon. The Last Chance Qualifiers will have a one-hour practice at 1:00 p.m. Qualifying resumes at 4:05 p.m. for the Fast 12 session. Each team will get one qualifying run. The fastest six teams will advance to the Fast Six to determine pole position and the first two rows for the Indianapolis 500.

At 5:15 p.m., the Last Chance Qualifying session will take place. The four entries will have one hour and can make as many attempts as possible. The slowest car at the end of that session will fail to qualify. 

The Fast Six session will begin at 6:25 p.m. with each entry again having one qualifying run. 

On Monday May 19, a two-hour practice session will be held at 1:00 p.m.

What is the forecast?

The week starts with a little bit of a shaky forecast. 

Tuesday begins with a chance of isolated thunderstorms and a 38% chance of precipitation. The highs will be around 75º F with a 5 mph wind from the Southeast.

Wednesday and Thursday are both looking to be partly cloudy days with the chance of precipitation dropping to 15%. While winds will remain about 7 mph from the South Southwest on Wednesday, the wind will pick up on Thursday, blowing at around 15 mph from the South Southeast. Along with the increase in winds will come an increase in temperature. Wednesday calls for a high of 79º F with Thursday jumping up to 87º F. 

Friday practice will see the temperature remain in the mid-80s, with a high of 86º F on a mostly sunny day and the chance of precipitation hangs around 23%. Winds will remain at 13 mph from the Southwest. Temperatures will drop a little on Saturday. The high will be 81º F with the winds increasing slightly to 17 mph from the West Southwest. The chance of rain drops to 15%. 

For Sunday's qualification day, partly cloudy skies should return and the temperature should drop to around 74º F. Winds will decrease to 9 mph from the West Northwest. There is a 15% chance of rain. 

The post-qualifying practice day on Monday will see another partly cloudy day and temperatures down to 72º F.

Explain the Tony Kanaan Refresher

Kanaan is the standby substitute driver in case Kyle Larson must leave Indianapolis before Larson gets a chance to start the Indianapolis 500. Kanaan must still complete a refresher program before he would be allowed to run in the race. 

Prior to last month's test, IndyCar set out a reminder out the substitute driver procedure, and it stated any replacement driver must complete the refresher on the first day of practice. The reminder also said once the refresher program was completed, the replacement driver would not be permitted to running any additional laps during the session. 

Two hours has been allotted for Kanaan's refresher, but Kanaan should not need all that time to complete the two-stage, 30-lap program.

The Rookie Class

There are four rookies entered in this year's race, one of which is back for his second attempt to make the race. 

Nolan Siegel made a qualifying attempt for last year's race. Unfortunately, a qualifying accident in the Last Chance Qualifying session sealed Siegel's fate and he was unable to make the 108th Indianapolis 500 with Dale Coyne Racing. Siegel is back for the 109th race with Arrow McLaren. 

The other three rookies are all new to the Indianapolis 500. 

The 2025 Indy Lights champion Louis Foster will be driving for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing in the #45 Honda. Jacob Abel was second to Foster in Indy Lights last year, and Abel is in the #51 Honda for Dale Coyne Racing. Robert Shwartzman comes over after a year in the FIA World Endurance Championship to drive the #83 Chevrolet for Prema, a team that is also attempting its first Indianapolis 500. 

All four drivers are full-time participants in the IndyCar Series.

Who is not there?

Six drivers from the 108th Indianapolis 500 are not in the plans for the 109th race.

The best finisher of the non-returning drivers is Romain Grosjean, who was 19th with Juncos Hollinger Racing. Grosjean will have an outside shot of competing in the race as he has been signed as a reserve driver for Prema. 

The next best finisher from last year not here this year is another Juncos Hollinger Racing driver. Agustín Canapino was 22nd in last year's race, but the Argentine is not back for his third Indianapolis 500.

The remaining four drivers all failed to finish last year's Indianapolis 500. In fact, none of those drivers completed more than 27 laps. Linus Lundqvist was out due to an accident in 28th. Katherine Legge suffered a mechanical issue after only 22 laps. Tom Blomqvist made his Indianapolis 500 debut last year, but he sadly is remembered for not completing a lap. A spin in turn one on the opening ended Blomqvist's day and it took out Pietro Fittipaldi as well, who is also not returning for 2025.

Along with the four rookies, the two returning veterans are Jack Harvey, who was sidelined for the Indianapolis 500 when Nolan Siegel was placed in the #18 Dale Coyne Racing entry, and David Malukas is back after missing last year's race due to his wrist injury.

How is Kyle Larson and Takuma Sato Speed After Testing Accidents?

The biggest stories from the two-day test at the end of April were the two accidents. On Kyle Larson's second lap of the qualifying simulation session, his first proper flying lap, held on April 24, Larson hit the wall exiting turn one and his damage chassis skidded into the barrier in turn two as well. 

Sato had completed eight laps in the qualifying simulation session, and he had run the fastest no-tow lap of the session at 232.565 mph. That lap would stand for the second-fastest of the day. On his ninth lap, Sato lost the back end of his car in the middle of turn one and he hit the barrier. 

Larson's car was salvageable but Sato's car was written off and Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had to order a new car from Dallara.

On the first day of testing, Larson had run fast enough for 11th-quickest at 223.430 mph. Sato was third-fastest on the first day of testing at 225.069 mph. He was one of three drivers to break the 225-mph barrier on the first day of testing.

Last year, accidents proved to be costly to qualifying efforts. There were three incidents of note in practice week last year. Linus Lundqvist had a spin on Thursday morning in turn two and Marcus Ericsson had a spin exiting turn four. During Friday practice, Nolan Siegel had an accident in turn two. 

Lundqvist was able to qualify 27th. Ericsson and Siegel both had to participate in the Last Chance Qualifying session on Sunday. Ericsson took 32nd on the grid. Siegel failed to make the race.

What trends should we know for the Fast 12 and the race?

If you top the no-tow report on any day, you are likely going to make the Fast 12. Since 2016, only twice has a driver topped a no tow report and not started in the top 12. Jack Harvey was the first in 2020, who topped the no tow report in Thursday practice that year. Last year, Colton Herta topped the no-tow times on Thursday, but he fell a spot shy of the Fast 12 and started 13th.

Last year, the Tuesday practice was cut short after only 23 minutes, not enough time for any no-tow laps to register. Takuma Sato and Josef Newgarden were the fastest no-tow drivers on Wednesday and Friday. They ended up starting tenth and third respectively. 

Scott McLaughlin only registered no-tow laps on Thursday and Friday, but his average over those two days was fourth on the no-tow report, and McLaughlin went on to win pole position. 

Nine of the Fast 12 participants ranked in the top 12 of average no-tow report position over the three practice days. It is difficult for drivers to register on laps leading up to Fast Friday. Friday practice is the one place where nearly every driver will get a clean run. It is also the only practice days where everyone is competing with the 150-Kilopascal (kPa) level of boost that will be used in qualifying. 

Last year, nine of the top 12 in the no-tow report from Friday practice made the Fast 12. Eleven of Fast 12 ranked in the top 15 on Friday's no-tow report. The exception, and surprise of qualifying, was Ryan Hunter-Reay, who made the Fast 12 despite not being faster than 18th on the no-tow report leading into qualifying. 

Seven of the top ten cars in average overall practice result made the Fast 12 last year while ten of the Fast 12 ranked in the top 14. Herta had the best average though and did not make it. The other two drivers ranked 18th (Kyle Larson) and 22nd (Rinus VeeKay) on average overall practice result. 

The fastest drivers overall each day were Scott Dixon (Tuesday), Scott McLaughlin (Wednesday), Patricio O'Ward (Thursday) and Colton Herta (Friday).

Only once in the last 12 years has an Indianapolis 500 winner topped a pre-qualifying practice session. That was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014, who topped the Monday pre-qualifying practice day.

Over the four days, Josef Newgarden ranked 28th in the abbreviated Tuesday practice but then ranked fourth, fifth and third over the next three days.

Who should be nervous about bumping?

It is the usual suspects. 

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing has had a last row starter in the last three Indianapolis 500s. Though the team showed promising pace in testing beyond Sato, until we get through at least Friday practice with all of its cars far from the bubble, RLLR will be in the conversation. 

Prema is new and it did well in testing, but it was not blisteringly quick with either Robert Shwartzman or Callum Ilott, who is back for his fourth Indianapolis 500 start. Prema is a full-time team, but new teams to the Speedway do race a battle to make the race. Abel Motorsports did make it on first attempt in 2023 with R.C. Enerson, but he qualified 29th. In 2021, Enerson made his first "500" attempt and fell short with the new Top Gun Racing. In that same year, Simona de Silvestro made it as the 33rd-starter for Paretta Autosport. 

Dale Coyne Racing has also been a bottom feeder the last two years at the Speedway. In 2023, it had both its cars in the Last Chance Qualifying session. Both made the race. Last year, Nolan Siegel was the lone car bumped from the field. Add to the Coyne concerns Jacob Abel, who was toward the bottom on each test day last month.

What will this race mean for the championship?

With Palou up 97 points through five races, it feels like the championship is over with 12 races to run. The door is very much open for someone to beat Palou, but with an average finish of 1.2 through five races, it will be rather difficult to defeat the Catalan driver.

If Palou were to finish second in the next seven races with no bonus points, it would require second in the championship, Kyle Kirkwood, to win all seven of those races with the maximum 54 points for pole position and most laps led to take the championship lead, and even then Kirkwood would only have a one-point lead with five races remaining (529 to 528).

No driver has come close to the level necessary to dethrone Palou from his championship perch. Not only would it require Palou hitting a historic rough patch but it would also require another driver to go on a personal tear they have never achieved before for there to be a change at the top of the championship. 

If there is any hope in Indianapolis, it comes from the extra points available in qualifying. Pole position pays 12 points with each spot in the top 12 paying one fewer descending point. Combine victory with pole position and the most laps led in the Indianapolis 500 and a driver could walkaway with 65 points from this race. Theoretically, a driver could take 60 points out of Palou's lead in this one race. That would require Palou scoring the minimum five points, which would mean Palou finishing 25th or worse. 

There is also the unthinkable possibility that a driver could make up a full 65 points to Palou with a maximum points victory and Palou failing to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. A truly insane, yet possible, turn of events.