Friday, October 29, 2021

Best of the Month: October 2021

October is not quite over yet, but with only a few days left and the month ending on a Sunday, it is best to recap the month now. The month is over, nothing that happens over the next two days will change it that much. Most seasons are nearing the end. A few more have wrapped up. It is getting easier to look ahead. There are fewer distractions. 

Seeing how it is easier to look ahead, this is a good chance to look at a problem and see what can be done to fix it. It is difficult during a season to find solutions. It is not the best time, and most changes will not come until a season is over anyway unless things are dire. But we have the time now to work on something that has caused frustration. 

IndyCar Qualifying Adjustments
There are plenty of things to work on in an offseason. After IndyCar saw the grid size balloon to up to 28 entries in some events in 2021, and with larger grids appearing to be the norm in 2022, IndyCar is considering tweaking its road/street course qualifying format. 

With more cars entered, the first round of qualifying is crowded. IndyCar already splits the cars into two groups for the first round to maximize track space. However, with 28 cars entered in some races, each first round group would have 14 cars, the most cars on track at any point in qualifying. With possibly having two more cars than the second round of qualifying, each first round qualifying group has an increased chance of interference. 

IndyCar ended its 2021 season with a qualifying nightmare between interference claims, local yellows, and officiating inconsistencies at Long Beach. The series would be in its best interest to limit the controversies. With a larger and much more competitive grid, a few changes make sense for the series. 

But what could IndyCar do?

1. Keep it as it is
This is changing nothing. Same format, same structure, same everything. Why list this? Because I would not be surprised if IndyCar did nothing. It is easy to talk about change but committing to it is frightening. Instead of changing and potentially making a good thing worse, IndyCar might live with what it has because it knows it so well. 

Some drivers might be upset with traffic and some drivers will be called for blocking and feel they did nothing wrong. Others will not be called and there will be drivers who feel they were robbed. We have been living with this format for 17 seasons now. Drivers have been mad for 17 seasons. Why change it if IndyCar is not guaranteed it will get better?

2. Split round one into three groups
This is the common sense approach. If IndyCar doesn't want 14 cars on track at once in qualifying, split round one into three groups. Instead of having two ten-minute groups, make it three seven-minute groups. Instead of having 12-14 cars on track at once, make it 8-10 cars. Instead of the top six advancing, the top four could advance. 

What are the negatives? For starters, setting the rest of the grid for those who do not advance. It easy when the cars do not advance from group one fills the odd-numbered position and the cars that do not advance from group two fill the even-numbered positions, but there isn't a third option. 

IndyCar could snake it with the cars eliminated in group one taking spots 13th, 16th, 19th, 22nd, 25th and 28th, those eliminated in group two would start 14th, 17th, 20th, 23rd and 26th and group three cars would be 15th, 18th, 21st, 24th and 27th. 

It isn't that hard, but it does put the group three runners in the disadvantageous position of always starting worse than the cars they finished leveled with comparably in the other groups. Currently, each seventh-place finish starts on row seven. Seventh is equal, same with eighth and so on. With the three-group snake, the third group car would always be behind. 

The rest of the grid could always be lined up via time set in qualifying, regardless of the groups, but that puts the first two groups at a disadvantage because the track gets faster as more rubber is laid down. We regularly see seventh or eighth in group two run quicker than sixth in group one because the track has gotten better. 

It is the easiest option, but it has its hang-ups. 

3. Keep it as is or split into three groups, but end with the Fast 12
I have already stated why I think IndyCar could cut the final round from its qualifying format, but with a tweak needed at the start of the qualifying session, we could see changes to both the start and the end of the session. 

We could either keep it as it is and extend the time for each round one group that way the drivers have more time to set a fastest lap or split it into three groups and still give the drivers a little more time to set a fastest lap. 

If round one remained two groups, each group could now get 15 minutes with a ten-minute final round. If round one was split into three groups, each group could get ten minutes with a ten-minute final round. Either way, there would be a half-hour of track time for round one and then ten minutes to close. Forty minutes total. Not crazy at all.

4. Pre-qualifying
This isn't pre-qualifying in the old Formula One style where 36 cars would enter a grand prix weekend, and they would have to run a qualifying session just to decide who would participate in qualifying. 

My idea for 2022 IndyCar pre-qualifying is this: Prior to the practice session that precedes qualifying, each car gets to run one lap on the alternate tires. That time is set and that is the banker lap time for each car at the start of a qualifying session. 

This wouldn't necessarily change the round structure, but we always hear drivers complain when they feel another car has interfered with their fastest lap. Pre-qualifying would be their clean lap. Everyone would have gotten a lap in and that is your time at the start of qualifying. 

For example, let's say we are at Mid-Ohio, everyone makes their pre-qualifying lap, we run the final practice session before qualifying, and the grid is split into the qualifying groups for round one. Everyone would start qualifying with their pre-qualifying lap on the board. We would already know who are in the six transfer positions before the session started. The drivers on the outside would have to improve those times. The drivers in the top six could rest on their lap or go out and try to improve and further secure their spot in the next round. 

If you do not go faster than your pre-qualifying lap is your qualifying time. 

It could be a little confusing, and it does pose a problem if pre-qualifying is in the dry and then it rains during qualifying. In that case, no one would be improving in round one and the top six in each group would be locked into round two. But it could allow IndyCar to keep its current structure and clear up any complaints of interference. IndyCar could wash its hands of it at the start of qualifying and say pre-qualifying is everyone's clean lap and it will only get involved on interference calls if it is clearly deliberate or irresponsible. 

With how much I have been thinking about qualifying, I think IndyCar has a pretty clear way to enforce interference, it is the 105% rule. If a Driver A thinks another Driver B interfered, then let's look at the times. If Driver B's lap is within 105% of the fastest time, then it is fine, no penalty. After all, you need to be within 105% to qualify for a race, allegedly. If you are within that limit, you are fine. You are trying to lay down a fastest lap. We could make it quicker, like 102% or 103%. If IndyCar establishes a minimum for trying, then it could make what constitutes interference as better black and white call.

It will not always be as cut and dry as that. You can be within 105% or 102% and cut across another car. If a driver obviously drove in a manner that unnecessary slowed another driver, then call a penalty, but IndyCar could use the lap times to make 99.9% of the decisions and eliminate about 99.9% of race control's headaches. 

5. Some type of MotoGP-inspired session
The current MotoGP qualifying format is the top ten riders after the combined practice results following the third practice sessions automatically start in the second round of qualifying, the run for pole position. The rest of the field participates in round one with the top two advancing and having the opportunity to start on pole. 

I always liked this format as it makes practice matter more. I think IndyCar could do something similar. Top ten start in round two and then round one is one group with the rest of the field on track. However, that could be anywhere from 14-18 cars on track at the same time if IndyCar adopted this format. IndyCar could break up round one into two group with anywhere from 7-9 cars in each group and the fastest from each group advances. Round two and the Fast Six could still run as usual. 

It would be odd not seeing about 35% of the field in round one, but it would make practice worth watching. It is worth considering.

6. Single-lap qualifying
And now the boring option, but the options that guarantees no one complaining about interference. One lap, one car on track at a time, fastest starts first, slowest starts last. 

Nobody wants this, but it is there. IndyCar had more qualifying issues toward the end of the season than it seemed in a long-time. Teams were angrier than I can remember in recent seasons with some of these decisions. I don't think anyone wants race control and qualifying decisions to take over a race weekend. 

Single-lap, single-car qualifying would definitely prevent that. It would be boring. IndyCar would lose out, but it is always on the table. If IndyCar cannot work out concerns with consistency calls on interference, this is always an option. It would calm everyone in the paddock, but also turnoff viewers. This is incentive for IndyCar and the teams to solve some of these issues and all get on the same page. 

November Preview
There will be three Formula One races next month, and with how tight the championship is, we need to focus on that battle. November will heavily decide who will be the 2021 World Drivers' Champion. 

After Max Verstappen's victory at Austin, the Dutchman holds a 12-point championship lead over Lewis Hamilton with five races to go. The championship could trade back-and-forth over each of the final five races, but the next two rounds are favorable to Red Bull. 

Though Hamilton won the most recent trip to Mexico, Red Bull and Verstappen won the prior two Mexican races. Verstappen won the most recent Brazilian Grand Prix as well, while Hamilton does not have the greatest record at Interlagos, despite having two victories there. 

November ends with the first of two unknowns at the tail end of the Formula One season, as the inaugural Qatar Grand Prix at the Local International Circuit takes place on November 21. Losail has not held many major single-seater events over its 17-year existences. Its most notable single-seater event was a GP2 Asia Series round in 2009. Nico Hülkenberg and Sergio Pérez split those races. 

If Mexico and Brazil go as many think they will, Verstappen could have a hand on the trophy before even setting foot in the Middle East. A complete sweep of the Western Hemisphere races would give Verstappen a minimum 26-point lead with three races to go. Not to forget mentioning Verstappen already holds the edge with eight victories to Hamilton's five. With two more victories, Verstappen would lock up the tiebreaker, ensuring the championship would be his with at least a 26-point lead entering the Abu Dhabi finale. 

Can Mercedes and Hamilton fight back? Hamilton drove close to a perfect race with a slightly slower car at Austin and still fell 1.333 seconds short of victory. In the turbo-hybrid era, Mercedes has never had its back against the wall this late in a season, not to mention there are concerns Hamilton will have to take on another power unit, which would mean starting at the rear in one of the final five races. 

We are reaching the point in the fight when we start to see the writing on the wall. Nothing is guaranteed, but we see how momentum is swinging and who it is swinging against. A new champion is rising in front of us. 

-----------------------------------
We should also take a quick look at the IMSA championships heading into the final round of Petit Le Mans on November 13. 

In Daytona Prototype international, four entries are still alive with 385 points on the table, but it is really a two-horse race.

The #10 Wayne Taylor Racing Acura of Filipe Albuquerque and Ricky Taylor lead the championship with 3,071 points, 19 points ahead of the #31 Whelen Engineering Racing Cadillac of Pipo Derani and Felipe Nasr. Should both the top two cars fail to show up to Road Atlanta, the #55 Mazda of Oliver Jarvis and Harry Tincknell has a shot at the title, 189 points off the top. In the same vein, Chip Ganassi Racing could still win a championship on its return season. The #01 Cadillac of Kevin Magnussen and Renger van der Zande is three points behind the Mazda. 

Three entries are fighting in LMP2. 

Mikkel Jensen and Ben Keating have 1,807 points in the #52 PR1/Mathiasen Motorsports Oreca-Gibson and top that table. The Danish-American duo has a 113-point lead over the #11 WIN Autosport Oreca-Gibson of Tristan Nunez and Steven Thomas. Gabriel Aubry and John Farano is 173 points back in the #8 Tower Motorsport by Starworks Oreca-Gibson. 

It is a little more wide-open in LMP3 and it is tighter. 

Riley Motorsports' Gar Robinson has a 50-point lead over the CORE Autosport stalwarts Jon Bennett and Colin Braun. Robinson is 206 points ahead of teammates Jim Cox and Dylan Murry. Rasmus Lindh is 262 points and Oliver Askew has a slim chance, sitting 296 points back.

The GT Le Mans championship will likely fall to one of the two Corvettes.

Antonio García and Jordan Taylor lead in the #3 Corvette on 3,269 points. The #4 Corvette enters Petit Le Mans with three wins on the spin and Tommy Milner and Nick Tandy are 127 points behind the sister car. Cooper MacNeil mathematically has a shot. The #79 Porsche driver is 295 points back but would need Corvette to not show up to have any hope at the title. 

Five lineups are alive in GT Daytona.

Zach Robichon and Laurens Vanthoor have won three of the last four races and the #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche leads with 2,938 points, but the #1 Paul Miller Racing Lamborghini is only 50 points back with Madison Snow and Bryan Sellers. The WeatherTech Sprint Cup champions Roman De Angelis and Ross Gunn can take the overall title, as the #23 Heart of Racing Aston Martin is 177 points back. Patrick Long trails by 279 points while a disaster pair of races has the #96 Turner Motorsport BMW of Bill Auberlen and Robby Foley needing a miracle, entering Road Atlanta exactly 300 points off the #9 Porsche.

Other events of note in November:
NASCAR seasons ends at Phoenix.
FIA World Endurance Championship ends with an eight-hour race in Bahrain.
MotoGP has two deadrubbers. 
Supercars still has three race weekends at Sydney Motorsports Park. 
World Superbike will run the street course around Mandalika Resort in Indonesia to end its season.


Thursday, October 28, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's 2021 Season

We are into the second half of the IndyCar Wrap-Ups and we have reached Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. For the seventh consecutive season, the team had a top ten championship finisher, but for the first time since 2014 the team did not win a race. The team had more top five finishes than 2020 but the team did not make one trip to the top step of the podium. One other note from RLLR's 2021 season is it provided a few auditions to promising drivers as the team will expand in the very near-future.

For another season, Graham Rahal was the best without being the best

Graham Rahal
It was another respectable season for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. The team provided quick race cars and both drivers were in the top half of the championship with Rahal leading the way. However, Rahal's great days continue to fall short of glory and, while he was ahead of three Penske drivers and three Andretti Autosport drivers in the championship, just one thing was missing from Rahal's season, preventing it from being an undisputed success.

What objectively was his best race?
Rahal led 13 laps on his way to finishing third in the second Texas race. He was one of the few cars that could complete a pass into a corner and had great drive off turn four to make attempts into turn one. A few moves paid off nicely for him. However, fuel concerns led him to back off and Rahal was jumped in the pit cycle with Patricio O'Ward taking the lead and Scott Dixon moving up to second. 

What subjectively was his best race?
There are two options. One crosses the divide of being his subjective best race and objectively his worst race. We will cover that in a moment, but let's look at a day that ended with a respectable result, Portland. 

Rahal stretched his fuel out and led 36 laps on a two-stop strategy. The only problem was he was not able to keep his track position through the pit cycle and dropped to tenth. 
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Rahal lost his left rear tire after a pit stop on lap 119 of the Indianapolis 500. With an unsecured wheel nut, Rahal spun out of the access lane and into the barrier on the outside of turn two. At the time, Rahal was working his forward and looked to be a threat in the closing laps. He had led eight laps before the accident. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis was crushing. It looked like the race was playing out for Rahal to be in the top five at the end. He could have been leading the pack in the final laps. Instead, his race ended just shy of 300 miles due to something completely out of his hands. 

I think Portland fits the criteria as well because it was another race where it looked like Rahal was finally going to get a victory only for something else to take it from Rahal. He was one of the best cars that day and it all went wrong. While some drivers pull off the two-stop strategy and hold off drivers from behind, Rahal kept losing spots in the final pit cycle. The cautions ended up not falling his way and he could maintain the pace to remain in front.

Another race that deserves a mention is St. Petersburg, because Rahal was going to finish in the top five before he and Alexander Rossi got together after Rossi had a flat tire and damaged suspension. With Rahal caught on Rossi's outside in turn five, Rahal was blocked out and he had to back his car up to continue forward. It cost him many positions and he had to settle for 15th.
 
Graham Rahal's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 7th (389 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 7
Top Tens: 11
Laps Led: 65
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 6 
Average Start: 12.929
Average Finish: 9.9375

Takuma Sato had a good year, but regressed from recent form

Takuma Sato
After consecutive seasons with top ten championship finishes, Sato was back for his fourth consecutive season with RLLR. For most of 2021, Sato was a knowledgable veteran, bringing the car home in one piece and frequently finishing in the top ten. However, we did not see Sato spark at the top of the order and be in contention for a race victory as we were accustomed to seeing over the last few years.

What objectively was his best race?
Sato was fourth in the first Belle Isle race, which was an overachieving result for Sato. The way the cautions fell played into his favor more than most.  

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to say because Sato did not have any great performances. There were many races where you looked up in the closing laps and Sato was somehow in eighth after not being mentioned once over the first 95% of the race. The first Belle Isle race was a good result, considering he started 16th, but he also went from 16th to sixth at Gateway and 15th to sixth at St. Petersburg.

What objectively was his worst race?
Laguna Seca. A spin in the Corkscrew, contact with Scott Dixon and the subsequent damage from that incident relegated him to 27th, dead last. Laguna Seca was one of his better races as well. He went off strategy early and had charged into the top ten before that spin. He was on a similar strategy as Josef Newgarden, who finished seventh, and Sato was two positions ahead of Newgarden at the time of his spin. What could have been?

What subjectively was his worst race?
I think it is Laguna Seca again because he went from a possible top ten to dead last and one of the worst finishes in his IndyCar career. Nashville deserves a mention because he was 25th after being taken out in the infamous turn 11 incident when Simon Pagenaud and Will Power got together. It wasn't going to be a great day for Sato. He struggled all weekend and qualified 24th.
 
Takuma Sato's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 11th (324 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 21
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 18.571
Average Finish: 12.25

Santino Ferrucci ran more IndyCar races than expected in 2021

Santino Ferrucci
After announcing he was turning his attention to NASCAR in 2021, Ferrucci added the Indianapolis 500 to his schedule with RLLR. A successful weekend and increased funding from Midwestern supermarket chain HyVee saw Ferrucci run more IndyCar races than expected. 

What objectively was his best race?
Ferrucci was sixth in two races, first in the Indianapolis 500 and then in the first Belle Isle race.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to ignore a sixth in the Indianapolis 500. He was slightly off strategy with his final stop coming on lap 180. This strategy allowed him to drive hard on the final two stints and gained him many spots late when he might have finished outside the top ten. Ferrucci also scored fastest lap in the race.
 
The second Belle Isle race deserves a mention because he advanced to the second round of qualifying, clobbered the wall on his final qualifying lap, had to start 12th but he did it in a backup car that the team thrashed together in time for the start of the race. The team got the job done and Ferrucci kept the car on the fringe of the top ten on his way to finishing tenth.

What objectively was his worst race?
It was a woeful 11th in the Nashville race. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
Nashville was such a mess I don't think we can take any driver's position seriously from that race. Ferrucci did nothing wrong and avoiding contact and accidents can be a good day, but I don't think Ferrucci was 11th that day. He probably finished about six to eight spots better than he actually was in that race. Overall, not a bad five-race run for Ferrucci.
 
Santino Ferrucci's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 24th (146 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 4
Laps Led: 2
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 13.0
Average Finish: 8.4

Oliver Askew made good impressions this season

Oliver Askew
In an unusual sophomore season, Askew did not have a full-time ride, but he 2019 Indy Lights champion was able to make five starts in 2021. While he made three starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, Askew's season started with him as the substitute of choice. 

What objectively was his best race?
Askew was ninth in the Laguna Seca race, his second of three starts with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing. He also made it to the Fast Six at Laguna Seca, only the second time an RLLR car made the Fast Six all season.

What subjectively was his best race?
How about a race he did not drive for RLLR? Askew was substitute for Rinus VeeKay in Ed Carpenter Racing's #21 Chevrolet at Road America after VeeKay broke his collarbone. Askew stepped into the car with no testing and was faster than ECR's other driver Conor Daly in pretty much every session, started on the same row as Daly and pulled out a 12th-place finish, eight spots ahead of Daly. Askew was in contention for a top ten all race.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
How about another race Askew did not drive for RLLR? Askew was a last-second substitute for Felix Rosenqvist for the second Belle Isle race after Rosenqvist's accident in the first race of the weekend sent the Swede to hospital. With even less seat time, Askew stepped in and his only laps pre-race was the qualifying session. Of course, with everything aligned against Askew, engine issues retired the car after 46 laps.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Askew made two other starts outside of Laguna Seca with RLLR and neither were impressive. He was caught in multiple accidents at Portland after starting ninth and he was taken out after contact from Sébastien Bourdais. At Long Beach, he hit the barrier in qualifying and started dead last. In the race, contact with Conor Daly put him into the turn nine tire barrier and left him with a 22nd-place finish.
 
Oliver Askew's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 29th (61 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 5
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 16.2
Average Finish: 18.4

IndyCar met Christian Lundgaard this season

Christian Lundgaard
One of the many surprises of the 2021 IndyCar season, Lundgaard's IndyCar debut came out of seemingly nowhere. The Danish Alpine F1 Academy driver makes his living in Formula Two, but with Formula Two in the middle of a two-month break, Lundgaard received Alpine's permission to make his IndyCar debut in August on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.

What objectively was his best race?
It is Lundgaard's only start, 12th in the August IMS road course race!

What subjectively was his best race?
The best part of that weekend was Lundgaard qualifying fourth! And the team left some speed on the table because the team thought it was a three-round qualifying session with a Fast Six session to follow, but the August IMS road course race was one of three races to use the two-round format where the Fast 12 session was the final round of qualifying.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Lundgaard started well and even led two laps during the intial pit cycle, but he struggled with the alternate tire compound. That is expected of a new driver to the series. It did cost him many positions in this race.

What subjectively was his worst race?
I cannot pretend Lundgaard had a bad race. Does it look good to start fourth and finish 12th? No, but it was his IndyCar debut! That is a great first impression and he ended on a high note. He was back to 16th on lap 65 and in the last 20 laps he moved up to 12th with his personal best lap coming on lap 81 of an 85-lap race.
 
Christian Lundgaard's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 37th (19 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 2
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1 (Note: No Fast Six for the August IMS Road Course race. There were only two qualifying rounds)
Average Start: 4.0
Average Finish: 12.0

An Early Look Ahead
We know RLLR will see a change in personnel after four years of a consistent lineup. 

Rahal remains, but Sato has left with Lundgaard taking over the #30 Honda full-time, and Jack Harvey joins the team in the team's third car, the #45 RLLR Honda. 

It is hard to say 2021 was a good year for the team after it had won a race for six consecutive seasons, but Rahal was in the top ten of the championship again, and Sato fell just short in 11th. Again, Rahal was ahead of three of four Penske drivers and three of four Andretti Autosport drivers. Sato was ahead of half of the Andretti team, specifically Andretti's two most experienced driver.

RLLR is somewhere battling for fourth amongst the IndyCar teams. Its consistency make it feel more like the fourth best team compared to Arrow McLaren SP, who self-pronounced itself as fourth ahead of the 2020 season. AMSP has more of a claim on that honor after the 2021 season, especially when Patricio O'Ward won multiple races and was alive for the championship into the finale. But, I also think AMSP has to back up its 2021 results. We know what RLLR can do, but as of now this is one a flash in the pan for AMSP. 

The difference is I think AMSP can do it again in 2022. RLLR has been trying but has not quite returned to where it was in 2015 when Rahal won two races and went to the finale with championship hopes. There have been plenty of good years and Rahal has always been there, but for some reason Rahal cannot break through and turn top five finishes into victories.

The team was plagued this year with poor qualifying form, and it has been a regular problem for the team over the last few years. Harvey, an exceptional qualifier, enters the fold. Will Harvey alone lift the team? Can both cars find the speed? Or will RLLR continue to lack qualifying pace but pull out respectable race results? 

Lundgaard had RLLR's best qualifying result in 2021. If he had a grasp of an IndyCar that quickly, he could quickly find himself leading the way. Many drivers entered IndyCar last year and immediately looked competitive. One race does not accurately predict the future. Lundgaard will have another 14 tracks to learn including street courses and ovals, but RLLR placing him in a car suggests it has put together its fastest possible three-car lineup. 

RLLR took its time expanding from one car to two cars, and expanding to two cars has benefitted the organization. Three cars is new territory, the land only Andretti, Penske and Ganassi has occupied. The biggest fear is the RLLR organization spreading itself too thin, but with 2021 being a test year, and RLLR running a third car at nine races, it has a great idea of the scale of this operation. This isn't a team diving into three cars unaware of the challenge. This group is ready for a new chapter. 

But we need to see more from this team and we need to see it early in 2022. Top five finishes are great, but RLLR has to start winning races. I am not sure Rahal, Lundgaard or Harvey can be a championship contender next year, but the team needs to assert itself. An early victory will have everyone's attention for the entire season. 


Wednesday, October 27, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2021 Season

Our fifth IndyCar Wrap-Up looks at Ed Carpenter Racing, a team that experienced both ends of the spectrum. The year started on the highest of highs, but ended on the lowest of lows. It all levels out to an average season, but one that raises more questions than answers. It seems like a common theme at the end of each season for this organization. We ask ourselves, what is Ed Carpenter Racing?

VeeKay's start well and then backslid quickly

Rinus VeeKay
After a strong rookie season, VeeKay opened 2021 picking up right where he left off and he reached higher levels. VeeKay returned Ed Carpenter Racing to the top step of the podium for the first time in five years and it was Chevrolet's first victory of the season. Unfortunately for VeeKay, a midseason injury flipped his season upside down.

What objectively was his best race?
His maiden IndyCar victory! VeeKay was stellar in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and he got quicker with each stint. He negotiated traffic better than Romain Grosjean and VeeKay had a better balance on both tire compounds. It allowed him to take the lead with 21 laps to go during a pit cycle and the Dutchman pull out a victory by around five seconds over Grosjean.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to top your first victory, but VeeKay opened the season with fantastic results, six top ten finishes from the first seven races in fact. This included a strong drive at Barber Motorsports Park when he went off strategy after the Jimmie Johnson caution on lap 12 and VeeKay could run a little harder. It got him sixth-place and he did it with a broken thumb, which occurred just a little over a week earlier in testing at Indianapolis. 
  
What objectively was his worst race?
The final race of the season. VeeKay was 25th at Long Beach. It was his eighth consecutive finish outside the top fifteen and his fourth finish outside the top twenty in the final six races. 
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
How about the race he missed due to a broken clavicle? VeeKay injured himself cycling the Monday before the Road America race. He was not going to be fit for race day and that incident was the turning point for his season. 

In the eight races prior to the injury, he had a victory, a runner-up finish and six top ten finishes leaving him fourth in the championship. After the injury, he had seven consecutive finishes outside the top fifteen. VeeKay had consecutive 24th-place finishes at Nashville and the second IMS road course race. He suffered some damage in the Simon Pagenaud turn 11 accident at Nashville and then was accidentally spun when Scott McLaughlin got into him. 

In the final eight races, VeeKay scored 77 points, ranking him 22nd in IndyCar over the second half of the season. He scored the same number of points as Jimmie Johnson in the final eight races and they each missed a race. 

Rinus VeeKay's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 12th (308 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 72
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 14.154 
Average Finish: 14.533

Conor Daly did not make the most of this season

Conor Daly
For the second consecutive season, Daly ran all the road and street courses and the Indianapolis 500 for Ed Carpenter Racing. After a difficult season last year with ECR, Daly was not much better in 2021. He might have been better in the intra-team battle, but Daly barely made a blip on the IndyCar radar.

What objectively was his best race?
With Ed Carpenter Racing, Daly's best result was 11th in the August IMS road course race.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the August IMS road course race. Daly started in the top ten but blew the first corner early and it knocked him out of the top ten. He spent what felt like the entire race in 11th, but could not make it back into the top ten.

The Indianapolis 500 also deserves a mention because he led 40 laps, mostly because he cycled to the front when Stefan Wilson spun entering pit lane. This gifted Daly at least 15 positions, but fuel-mileage was not on his side and it knocked him out of the top spots. He ended up 13th, which included a slow pit stop and punting the left rear tire that had come off of Graham Rahal's car after Rahal's botched pit stop mid-race.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Twenty-fifth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, after being knocked off course and suffering gearbox issues. This was another race where Daly started in the top ten, he made the Fast Six actually, and had nothing to show for it. 
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
When your teammate wins and you are 25th, that is the worst race of your season, doesn't matter how it happened. It doesn't help that for two seasons the significantly more experienced Daly has been thoroughly beat on a weekly basis at the hands of VeeKay. Daly is too far off VeeKay when you consider Daly has 50 more starts than his teammate.

But Road America was also particularly bad because Oliver Askew stepped into ECR substituting for the injured VeeKay and Askew was ahead of Daly the entire weekend. 

Conor Daly's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 18th (201 of Daly's 235 points came with ECR)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 40
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 4 
Average Start: 15.071
Average Finish: 16.563

Same old, same old for Ed Carpenter in 2021

Ed Carpenter
Carpenter continued his role as an oval-only driver. The only problem is this season had only four oval races, making it his fewest starts in a season since 2010 when he was part-time with Panther Racing. Unfortunately, Carpenter's result leaned more toward disappointing than inspiring. 

What objectively was his best race?
Fifth in the Indianapolis 500 after starting fourth. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Carpenter's fifth at Indianapolis looks better when you note he stalled on his first pit stop. This forced Carpenter to run hard for the rest of the race and he was able to set himself up in a top ten position, which turned into a top five result as some teams got the strategy wrong or could not run at Carpenter's pace.

What objectively was his worst race?
Carpenter spun on his own in-between turns three and four at Gateway and ended up 22nd.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
This was a four-race season for Carpenter. On top of 22nd at Gateway, he was 17th in the first Texas race, mostly stuck at the back because the field was set via entrants' points and Texas is a single-lane racetrack. However, I am not sure it would have matter as Carpenter did not show much speed in practice.

What could make Gateway worse than Texas is Carpenter was quick during practice at Gateway and then immediately qualified at the back of the field and Carpenter even ran over Dalton Kellett coming to a restart. Carpenter made Kellett a victim! That is bad day when you make Dalton Kellett look good. 

Ed Carpenter's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 27th (107 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 13.0
Average Finish: 13.75

An Early Look Ahead
Ed Carpenter Racing went from top ten finishes in six of the first seven races to zero top ten finishes in the final nine races. 

VeeKay went from one of the handful of young stars leading the pack in the first half of the season to middle of the field by the time the season ended. Álex Palou won the championship. Patricio O'Ward was one of the championship contenders into the finale. Colton Herta tied for the most victories. VeeKay fell out of the conversation. 

I am not sure which team ECR actually is after this season. Through the first half, it appeared ECR was back to being a contender. It even extends back to last season when VeeKay scored his first career pole position and podium finish at the Harvest Grand Prix weekend on the IMS road course. ECR looked like it was getting back to where it was in Josef Newgarden's final season. It looked good until the second half of the season. 

We cannot say for certain VeeKay's broken collarbone caused his downturn in form, but after that accident his best finish was 16th. Four times he finished outside the top twenty in the final eight races. 

It didn't help that Daly never scored a top ten. Ed Carpenter was fifth in the Indianapolis 500, but it was his only top ten finish of the season. I am at more of a loss with this team after 2021 than I was after 2020 when VeeKay thrashed Daly despite being a rookie. 

The team clearly has something good. I don't think the first half of the season was a fluke. Six races are too many to be a fluke. After every season I ask what does ECR want out of the #20 entry? In two seasons, Daly has zero top ten finishes. The last time the #20 entry was on a road/street course podium was when Luca Filippi was second at Toronto in a 1-2 result for the CFH Racing team with Newgarden taking victory. That is also the #20 Chevrolet's most recent top five finish on a road/street course as well. 

The original goal of splitting the #20 entry was to maximize points and finish as high up the entrants' championship as possible. Outside of that first season in 2014 when Mike Conway won two races, ECR has not come close to combining Carpenter with another driver to top IndyCar's hierarchy. 

Daly could be back but what will change in season three? Daly doesn't need to make a minor step forward, he needs a Grand Canyon-wide leap for respectable results. With many drivers coming in from all-around the globe and succeeding in IndyCar, there are plenty of options out there from ECR to snag and make the #20 entry a threat on road and street courses. ECR tested Ryan Hunter-Reay, a proven commodity at Barber this week. Hunter-Reay didn't have a great 2020 season, but there is more reason to feel confident with him than Daly. 

Regardless if ECR hires Hunter-Reay, some other IndyCar-experienced driver, or a rookie with flashy speed, if you combine that driver with VeeKay, an IndyCar race winner who can use this offseason to refocus on what worked in the first half of the season in 2021, ECR could improve greatly in 2022. But if the team keeps the status quo, it will continue to be maligned in the middle of the pack.


Monday, October 25, 2021

Musings From the Weekend: Andretti's Grand Expansion

Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton drove perfect races at Circuit of the Americas, but it was Verstappen taking victory in the United States Grand Prix. Fabio Quartararo clinched the MotoGP world championship with a fourth-place finish after Francesco Bagnaia crashed out of the lead while leading with six laps remaining at Misano. Some NASCAR folks were envious of Formula One. Team Penske will run a pair of LMP2 entries in the World Endurance Championship next year. Tristan Nunez will partner Pipo Derani at Action Express Racing next year. A handful of notable faces will be testing for IndyCar teams at Barber today, including Nico Hülkenberg with Arrow McLaren SP, Ryan Hunter-Reay with Ed Carpenter Racing and David Malukas with Dale Coyne Racing. Here is a rundown of what got me thinking.

Andretti's Grand Expansion
Motorsports' latest worst kept secret is Andretti Autosport will purchase majority stakes in the Sauber Formula One operation and take over the Alfa Romeo program, though that appears to be on the rocks.

It would be a stunning development the IndyCar's long-running third best team would expand into the pinnacle of motorsports, but Andretti Autosport has slowly branched into a global motorsports operation over the last 15 years. It once fielded an Acura LMP2 entry in the American Le Mans Series championship, and it even operated the Team USA A1GP program in the series' final season in 2007-08. 

In recent years, Andretti's international exploration has been made through Formula E, where the team partnered with BMW through the 2021 season. Andretti expanded into Australian Supercars, purchasing a stake in Walkinshaw Racing with the Zak Brown-owned United Autosports. Andretti and United Autosports also co-operate an Extreme E program. 

But Formula One is the big time, and Andretti would go it alone should it take over the Swiss-based team. 

The deal isn't done yet, but for the last few weeks, the ground shaking has become more noticeable. Andretti entering Formula One would change the organization, though it still seems unthinkable Andretti Autosport is ready for this move. 

It was only six years ago Andretti Sports Marketing minority owners John Lopes and Starke Taylor sued Michael Andretti and Andretti Autosport and claimed Andretti Autosport was over $7 million in debt. That suit was settled within a week with ASM splitting from the racing team. 

The suit might have been settled, and we might not know Andretti Autosport's exact financial situation in 2015, but to go from claims the company being millions in debt to purchasing a team valued at $105 million in 2019 is an incredible leap. 

It feels like Andretti is biting off more than he can chew, and that is just the business side. The sporting side could bring its own questionable decisions. For starters, any Andretti Autosport takeover of Sauber suggests the team will bring Colton Herta to Formula One. 

Herta ended the 2021 IndyCar season with consecutive victories and tied for a series-high three victories. In three IndyCar seasons, Herta has six victories, and he has finished in the top seven in the championship in each of his full seasons, including top five championship finishes the last two years. At 21 years old, Herta has already established himself as one of IndyCar's best drivers, and he spent two years racing in Europe before committing to the Road to Indy ladder series. 

In 2015, he was third in the MSA Formula Championship. His teammate Lando Norris won the championship. Herta moved to the Euroformula Open Championship the following year and was third in that championship as well.

Herta may have European experience, but common sense says there is no rush to have Herta enter Formula One next year. There will be new regulations coming next year. With Herta already in a competitive IndyCar seat, there is no point in sending him to Formula One without knowing if the Formula One car is remotely competitive. Andretti doesn't have to send Herta to Formula One, nor does Herta have to leave IndyCar. This move can wait until the time is right. 

The smart play would be for Herta to run many Friday practice sessions next year to get him experience with the car and the Pirelli tires. Testing is limited in Formula One, but Friday practice is open for a third driver to gain experience. It is better than actual testing as Herta could get to experience a dozen different racetracks in a Formula One car. 

If anyone should know not to rush Herta to Formula One, it is Michael Andretti. Andretti's one Formula One season was in an underperforming McLaren racing Ford-Cosworth engines after Honda pulled out. Andretti struggled getting a handle of the car, and while teammate Ayrton Senna defended Andretti's ability considering the car, Andretti left the team before the season finished, even after finishing third in the Italian Grand Prix. 

After a successful United States Grand Prix weekend, with one American team already on the grid (Haas), another with American owners (Dorilton Capital owns Williams) and another run by an American (Zak Brown at McLaren), the next step is an American driver, something that has been absent from the grid on a regular basis for the last 30 years.

After Michael Andretti, the United States did not have a driver representative on the grid until Scott Speed debuted in 2006, but Speed only lasted a season-and-a-half. After Speed, Alexander Rossi made five starts with Marussia in 2015 before Rossi moved to IndyCar the following year. And though he ran under the Brazilian flag, Miami-born Pietro Fittipaldi started the final two races in 2020 replacing Romain Grosjean.

The last American regular was Eddie Cheever, who made 143 appearances over 11 seasons, his last coming in 1989. 

The belief is all Formula One has needed to click with the American audience is an American driver, but the United States has already had one of its best seasons in terms of viewership and the United States Grand Prix had one of its largest crowds in the nine years Austin's Circuit of the Americas has hosted. 

I don't believe America needs an American and it certainly wouldn't need Colton Herta. Most Americans do not know who Herta is now, and he races full-time in this country, and he is already American. To believe Herta is the key and will bring another two or three million people to the television screen for each Formula One race is unsubstantiated. IndyCar can barely get one million people to watch its races. Herta isn't going to bring anybody just being there.

Herta's introduction would immediately be doubted. It is a discount Lance Stroll move. Andretti might not have spent $80 million, including purchasing a Formula One team a simulator that it could not use because it was set up for Formula Three specs, to get Herta to Formula One, but it would be Andretti purchasing an entire team to drop a complete outsider in a Formula One car. 

For the last 20 years, Formula One has been accustomed to one path to Formula One. Everyone has come from the junior series in Europe. There haven't been many outside hires. Outside of Juan Pablo Montoya, Cristiano da Matta and Sébastien Bourdais, American open-wheel racing has not sent many drivers to Formula One. Christijan Albers, Paul di Resta and Esteban Ocon all might have moved over from the Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters, but they all had Formula One ties. Di Resta and Ocon were both supported by Mercedes. The only other outsider jumping to Formula One was Brendon Hartley moving from the Porsche LMP1 program to Scuderia Toro Rosso. 

Formula One teams don't look outside its bubble. Andretti alone taking over a team is a bubble bursting move, putting Herta in a car would be one of the most alienating moves any team has made in the last two decades. The closest example I can come up with is Super Aguri entering Formula One and putting Yuji Ide in a car. Ide had finished third and second in the Formula Nippon championship in the two previous seasons before joining the Formula One grid at the start of 2006. Ide's Formula One career lasted all of four races before his Super License was revoked. 

I have confidence in saying Herta is much better than Ide was in 2006, but that is the closest modern example should Herta enter Formula One with an Andretti-owned team. Herta will be under a microscope. Many will believe Herta does not belong, even if he has the likes of Fernando Alonso, Zak Brown and Lando Norris vouching for his talent. There will be a contingent who see Herta as undeserving of a place on the Formula One grid, and the only way he got there was because someone from outside the Formula One establishment bought a team and put him in a car.

As the Andretti news has grown in the last few weeks, we have heard what the team wants to do, but we should be asking what Herta wants to do. There is a chance he fails or is at least underwhelming in Formula One. Not many drivers truly succeed in Formula One. It took Sergio Pérez nearly a decade to get his first grand prix victory. Before winning the Sakhir Grand Prix, I would have said Pérez had a successful Formula One career. He had podium finishes and respectable results in midfield machinery. No one dreams of being known for outperforming the equipment on a regular basis, but does Herta want that? Is Herta going to spend ten years in Formula One not winning races? 

When your only goal is Formula One, you will take it, but Herta is winning races and is a championship hopeful in IndyCar. Each May, he is one victory from greatness. Trading that all away for possibly one grand prix victory over ten years does not sound worth it. 

But I think it is worth giving Formula One a shot. IndyCar is great, but Formula One is the pinnacle. Mario Andretti's legacy is what it is because he is one of two American world champions. Nigel Mansell's move to IndyCar in 1993 was intriguing because he was the reigning World Drivers' champion. Indianapolis' boom in the 1960s was aided because the likes of Jim Clark, Graham Hill, Jackie Stewart, Jack Brabham and Denny Hulme showed up, all world champions. 

It has been 43 years since an American has won a grand prix and it has been 28 years since an American has stood on a podium. Both those drivers had the last name Andretti. For too long, the American fan base has been hoping one of its very best will get plucked out of the crowd and get a Formula One shot, but no American driver has really plunged into the deep end and focused on Formula One. To succeed in Formula One, you must be prepared to fail, and there is nothing wrong with failing. American drivers must accept vulnerability. None don't, mostly because they don't have to due to the comfort of racing at home with series like IndyCar, NASCAR and IMSA. That is the main reason in 30 years only three American drivers have combined for 46 Formula One starts.

Herta would be getting the most American friendly move to Formula One should Andretti take over Sauber, and Herta should go if he feels it is right for him. Andretti should know that as well. Herta should not be in a car for the 2022 season, but a plan should be laid out for the next few seasons. 

I believe Herta shouldn't be on the Formula One grid until 2024 at the earliest. Use 2022 to develop the car and give Herta seat time in Friday practices. Use 2023 to work on the car, as it is more likely the team gets 2022 wrong and will have to try over in 2023, and Herta can continue to get seat time in Friday practices. Then in 2024, Herta could make his Formula One debut at 23 years old with a more developed car and he could do it with experience at most of the circuits. It would also allow Herta to stay in IndyCar for two more years and possibly win more races and a championship. 

There shouldn't be any rush getting Herta on the Formula One grid, especially when Andretti could do it right if he takes over Sauber. For Herta, a properly planned Formula One move is worth it. Success there is greater than anything he can imagine in IndyCar. It might not work out but moving to Formula One with a team backing you is a chance worth taking. 

Champions From the Weekend
You know about Fabio Quartararo, but did you know...

Laurents Hörrs clinched the European Le Mans Series LMP3 class championship with a fourth-place finish in the #4 DKR Engineering Duqueine M30 - D08-Nissan with Mathieu de Barbuat at Portimão. 

The #80 Iron Lynx Ferrari of Matteo Cressoni, Rino Mastronardi and Miguel Molina clinched the ELMS GTE championship with its third victory of the season at Portimão.

Jamie Chadwick clinched her second consecutive W Series championship after sweeping the races at Austin.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about Max Verstappen and company, but did you know...

Marc Márquez won MotoGP's Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, his third victory of the season. Sam Lowes won the Moto2 race, his third victory of the season. Dennis Foggia won the Moto3 race, his fifth victory.

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR Cup race from Kansas, his ninth victory of the season. Ty Gibbs won the Grand National Series race, his fourth victory of the season.

The #22 United Autosports Oreca-Gibson of Phil Hanson, Tom Gamble and Jonathan Aberdein won the 4 Hours of Portimão. The #13 Inter Europol Competition Ligier-Nissan of Martin Hippe, Adam Eteki and Ugo de Wilde won in the LMP3 class.

The #8 ARTA Honda of Tomoki Nojiri and Nirei Fukuzumi won the Super GT race from Autopolis. The #31 apr Toyota Prius of Koki Saga and Yuki Nakayama won in GT300. 

Coming Up This Weekend
Super Formula closes its season at Suzuka.
FIA World Endurance Championship will run a six-hour race at Bahrain.
Supercars begins its four-week residency at Sydney Motorsports Park.
NASCAR will be in Martinsville, the penultimate round of the season.


Friday, October 22, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Dale Coyne Racing's 2021 Season

The fourth IndyCar Wrap-Up is Dale Coyne Racing. IndyCar's smallest team continues to be one of IndyCar's most interesting teams. This year was no different, as the team brought back a former driver who won rookie of the year with the organization, and a Formula One transfer who came to IndyCar as one of the most known drivers in the world after his exit from the grand prix stage.

Romain Grosjean drew much attention for all the right reasons

Romain Grosjean
One of the most anticipated IndyCar introductions, Grosjean came to IndyCar with his Formula One career abbreviated by two races after a fiery accident in the 2020 Bahrain Grand Prix. Nearly five months after his final Formula One appearance, and with healed hands, Grosjean debuted in IndyCar and had a rookie season full of tremendously encouraging highs.

What objectively was his best race?
The Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Pole position and 44 laps led on his way to a runner-up finish. It could have been better for Grosjean. He struggled with traffic and the primary tires during the middle of the race, keeping Rinus VeeKay and Álex Palou in contention. VeeKay's pace was more consistent over each stint and it gave the Dutchman the victory while Grosjean settled for second. Grosjean was also second in the August IMS road course race.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is hard to go against the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but Grosjean was incredible at Laguna Seca. Starting 13th, Grosjean had one of the best balanced cars and had speed on both tire compounds. He made not one, not two but three passes into the Corkscrew and gained positions on each stint. His strategy saw him drive up to third when he took the checkered flag.

Grosjean also spent much Road America around the top five and finished fifth. His oval debut at Gateway deserves a mention. He passed many cars in that race but his problems on cold tires cost him all those spots after each pit stop and it dropped him to 14th, one lap down.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
It would be 24th in the second Belle Isle race when a brake failure took him out of the event. He was penalized earlier in that race after contact with Jack Harvey in turn six.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
We can lump all the street courses in here. St. Petersburg was not bad considering he finished 13th, but he had an accident in the first Belle Isle race after already being knocked out of a front running position with a tire puncture, we covered the second Belle Isle race and Grosjean lost another top ten result when contact with Simon Pagenaud earned him a penalty in Nashville. He brushed the barrier while solidly in the top ten at Long Beach. At least Grosjean has an area to improve in 2022. 

Romain Grosjean's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 15th (272 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 53
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 2
Fast Twelves: 8 
Average Start: 9.3077
Average Finish: 12.692

Ed Jones was back with Dale Coyne Racing in 2021

Ed Jones
After spending 2020 sidelined, mostly due to the pandemic, Jones returned to IndyCar and he was back to full-time competition after having last been part-time in the series. After three teams in three seasons, Jones was back where his IndyCar career started, where he made a good first impression. This time around, things were not as rosy as his rookie year. 

What objectively was his best race?
Jones avoided the mess at Nashville and came home in sixth-place, notably getting that sixth spot with a strong pass on Felix Rosenqvist late.

What subjectively was his best race?
Not many races standout for positives when it comes to Jones. Nashville is probably the correct answer to this question considering he started 26th. The first Belle Isle race deserves a mention, as he started fourth and lost some ground after running long on the alternate tire, but still finished ninth.

Jones did end strong with finishes of 11th, tenth and 12th in the final three races. It was the only period this season when he had three consecutive top 15 finishes.

What objectively was his worst race?
Jones was 28th in the Indianapolis 500 after starting 11th on the grid. He made his final pit stop on lap 198 and the gamble led him to finishing as the final car one lap down.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
The biggest problem in Jones' season is he has too many events where he was anonymous, 20th from 21st on the grid at St. Petersburg, he was caught in Will Power's spin at Mid-Ohio and completed only three laps and he got into Graham Rahal after two laps at Gateway, taking both drivers out of the top ten. Road America was another missed opportunity after starting 12th in his first race with the same damper package as Grosjean, only for a suspension failure to eliminate Jones with five laps to go. 

It also didn't help Jones that he will most remembered for spinning Patricio O'Ward in the hairpin on the first lap of the Long Beach finale, effectively ending the championship battle right then and there.

Ed Jones' 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 19th (233 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 5
Average Start: 13.071
Average Finish: 16.438

Pietro Fittipaldi was back for oval races this season

Pietro Fittipaldi
With Grosjean not committing to the ovals at the start of the 2021 season, Dale Coyne Racing drafted in another Haas F1 driver. For the first time in three years, Fittipaldi, grandson of two-time World Drivers' Champion and two-time Indianapolis 500 Emerson Fittipaldi, was back in IndyCar. Coincidentally, it was Fittipaldi who replaced Grosjean in the final two races of the 2020 Formula One season.

What objectively was his best race?
Fittipaldi was 15th in the first Texas race, finishing on the lead lap. He was on the edge of the top ten for most of this race, but dropped back a few spots late. It was a good showing considering he had not been in an IndyCar since September 2018.

What subjectively was his best race?
Texas was his best day, but Fittipaldi's Indianapolis 500 debut deserves some attention. He qualified 13th, the fastest rookie qualifier. His race was not spectacular. He did not make the most of his starting position and lost ground throughout the race, but he took the checkered flag, albeit it a lap down in 25th.

What objectively was his worst race?
Strangely enough, it was the Indianapolis 500.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
Fittipaldi was taken out in the start accident in the second Texas race and was classified in 21st with barely a lap started let alone an entire lap completed. It was sad not to see Fittipaldi more this year. With Grosjean running Gateway, Fittipaldi made one fewer start than anticipated and the team did not enter an extra car for him. It feels like Fittipaldi could be a strong full-time driver, and yet he constantly finds himself on the periphery of many series. 

Pietro Fittipaldi's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 32nd (34 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0 
Average Start: 13th (Field set via entrants' point for both Texas races. Fittipaldi qualified 13th for the Indianapolis 500).
Average Finish: 20.333

Cody Ware started three races in 2021

Cody Ware
With Rick Ware Racing partnering with Dale Coyne Racing for the 2021 IndyCar season and the team's #51 Honda, Rick Ware's son got to compete in a few races in a third entry. The NASCAR experienced driver, who has an average finish of 32.8 in 52 Cup Series, did about how you would expect in an IndyCar.

What objectively was his best race?
Ware was 19th on debut at Road America. He also started 25th in that race. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Road America. Nothing like your first time. Ware didn't draw any attention to himself and kept the car on the track. Cautions might have kept him on the lead lap, but Ware did not put himself in trouble at any points.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Ware was 25th in the August IMS road course race, two laps down and a little in the way.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
When you are parked for being too slow, that is your worst race, and Ware was disqualified after 70 laps for being too slow at Nashville. The number of accidents allowed Ware to end up with a 20th-place classification, but he was slow in this race. Despite his pace, he got up to seventh during a pit cycle and then immediately spun in turn three after holding up the field.

Cody Ware's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 34th (26 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0 
Average Start: 26.333
Average Finish: 21.333

Ryan Norman was a surprise debutant

Ryan Norman
After three years in Indy Lights, Norman has spent the last two seasons competing in IMSA's Michelin Pilot Challenge series. When an opportunity came for him to run at his home track of Mid-Ohio in Dale Coyne Racing's extra entry, Norman took it and made his IndyCar debut.

What objectively was his best race?
Norman was 20th, the first car, one lap down.

What subjectively was his best race?
While Norman was only 20th, he was ahead of Dalton Kellett and Jimmie Johnson. Norman also gained six spots on the day, moving up from a 26th starting position.
 
What objectively was his worst race?
Mid-Ohio was Norman's only start of the season. 
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
Running at Mid-Ohio meant Norman had to miss the Michelin Pilot Challenge race at Watkins Glen, but his car owner Bryan Herta encouraged Norman to run the IndyCar race. The only downside is by missing that race, Norman could no longer defend his TCR class championship. His co-driver Parker Chase is second in the championship entering the final round at Road America at the end of October.

Ryan Norman's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 30th (10 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0 
Average Start: 26
Average Finish: 20

An Early Look Ahead
Dale Coyne Racing is coming off another stellar season and in turn it will be going through another shakeup. 

Grosjean has left for Andretti Autosport and he took engineer Olivier Boisson with him. At the same time, the Vasser/Sullivan partnership could be ending, as Vasser/Sullivan has already independently taken on the Lexus GT Daytona program in IMSA, it could be looking to do the same with its IndyCar team soon. 

The team expressed dissatisfaction with Jones' performance during the season. It was stated that Jones had a different damper program than Grosjean for the first half of the season and the two cars didn't have the same dampers until Road America. We did see Jones closer to equal with Grosjean as the season went on, but while Grosjean stood on the podium three times and had a pole position, Jones had three top ten finishes all season.

Grosjean made three fewer starts and scored 39 points without the benefit of a double points race. 

Coyne has a knack for finding drivers and getting cars to the front. The team lost Craig Hampson to Arrow McLaren SP and Michael Cannon to Ganassi and the team hasn't fallen off. Coyne can head in any direction it wants. In the last decade, it is more likely going to find two respectable drivers and overachieve. For a team with a history of shuffling drivers through its cars without much success and historically having TBA on entry lists, the last ten years has Coyne as more of an Oakland Athletics' Moneyball-esque team than a cellar dweller like the Seattle Mariners. The team finds away to compete rather than just take up space. 

The hope is Coyne will have a good rock to build its 2022 around, as Takuma Sato is linked to one of the seats. Sato might be turning 45 years old in January, and he might be coming off a season where he did not make it out of the first round of qualifying once on a road/street course and did not start in the top ten once, but he did have eight top ten finishes, falling just eight points outside the top ten in the championship. Sato is a great place to start and he will keep the team in the conversation most weekends.

While the team is going through another overhaul, I except Coyne to remain competitive. It is going to find two drivers who can get the job done, and if there is anything we have learned from the last two season with Coyne alone, there are plenty of drivers out there who can enter IndyCar and score results. Would a Sato-led Coyne team necessarily win races? No, but the organization should still be competing for top ten finishes on a regular basis and possibly challenge for a top five finish here or there.

The biggest concerns is if Coyne keeps the partnerships going for another season. Rick Ware Racing might not be a multi-year thing. Vasser/Sullivan could leave this year and bring more uncertainty. The Coyne-Vasser/Sullivan pairing has been together five years and it has yielded great success with multiple drivers. That breakup could set Coyne back. We need to find out sooner rather than later who Coyne will be working with. Once we know that we will have a better idea what to expect for the team in 2022.


Wednesday, October 20, 2021

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Meyer Shank Racing's 2021 Season

The third IndyCar Wrap-Up brings us to one of IndyCar's newest and fastest rising organizations. Meyer Shank Racing competed in its second full season in 2021, and a second full season brought a slight expansion to the operation. With one full-time car, MSR ran a second car in a half-dozen races. Meyer Shank Racing achieved another incredible milestone, and yet, 2021 felt like it could have been better.

Jack Harvey bounced between good days and bad days

Jack Harvey
Harvey began his second full IndyCar season and fifth season overall with Meyer Shank Racing. After a split season with strong qualifying results but race results that did not always match in 2020, Harvey looked to make a leap forward. Though he continued to have good races, this season did not standout as a clear improvement.

What objectively was his best race?
Harvey was fourth at St. Petersburg after starting on the front row. He struggled on the alternate tire and that cost him a few spots, but he still pulled out a fabulous result. Harvey then finished fourth at Portland after starting 20th. He drove a superb race and going long on his first stint set Harvey up to run hard in the closing laps and get up to fourth. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Though Harvey did not have nearly as many strong results as he should have, I will say it is Portland because that weekend started well in practice, he then qualified 20th and it looked like he was doomed for another disappointing race and then he was quick in the race and matched his best finish of the season. 

The second IMS road course race deserves a mention because that ended an eight-race slump where Harvey's best finish was 15th. At Indianapolis, Harvey was sixth. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Twenty-third in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis after a botched pit stop took him out of contention for a podium spot, and possibly a race victory, and a tire puncture exiting pit lane took away any chance of a respectable result and left him a lap down.
 
What subjectively was his worst race?
Unfortunately, for the second consecutive season, Harvey's season is full of too many results that do not add up to the pace we saw and some of these were self-inflicted. 

The team tossed away a top ten finish at Road America trying to go off-strategy at a terrible point in the race prior to a pit window opening where there was no way Harvey was going to save enough and get a better result than if he had waited. What should have been a sixth or seventh was a 17th. The team employed a similar strategy at Nashville. See how wacky that race was, Harvey could have won it, but his strategy choices, and the oddly shaped pit lane, trapped him in 15th. 

One that was not on the teams the second Texas race when a wheel bearing broke and ended a possible top five run. 

The Grand Prix of Indianapolis is probably his worst result. He was up there with Romain Grosjean, Álex Palou and Rinus VeeKay. He could have won that race, if not it looked like he was set for a podium result.

Jack Harvey's 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 13th (308 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 6
Laps Led: 6
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 4
Fast Twelves: 6
Average Start: 13.714
Average Finish: 13.0

Hélio Castroneves turned a new, part-time gig into something historic

Hélio Castroneves
Meyer Shank Racing rolled the dice on Castroneves, newly released from Team Penske, and it paid off with Meyer Shank Racing winning the biggest race on the IndyCar calendar, the team's first victory in the series and a historic victory for Castroneves to boot. This pairing ran six races in 2020 and it will expand to a full-time operation in 2021, but their first race together might be the mountaintop for this duo.

What objectively was his best race?
Come on? What do you think? It is Castroneves' fourth Indianapolis 500 victory. 

What subjectively was his best race?
Expanding on the Indianapolis 500 victory, for starters, it was Castroneves' first race with the team. It was Meyer Shank Racing's first victory. Castroneves was in the top ten all race. This was not Castroneves pulling a rabbit out of his hat and he just happened to be first after stretching his fuel while others had to stop. This wasn't Castroneves leading at the right time when a rainstorm blew in. Castroneves won this race straight up after spending the previous three years committed to sports car racing while IndyCar was his side project. 

What objectively was his worst race?
Castroneves was nowhere to be found at Laguna Seca and he finished a lap down in 24th.  

What subjectively was his worst race?
Castroneves has some work to do on road and street courses. He may have been ninth at Nashville, but he was 21st in the second IMS road course race, 23rd at Portland and 24th at Laguna Seca. Castroneves did qualify third at Long Beach and he might have finished in the top ten if the team had not chosen poor on the pit strategy, failing to have him pit before the Patricio O'Ward caution and then not stopping under that caution nor the Marcus Ericsson caution only a few laps later. This comeback season is going to be tougher than many think it will be. 

Hélio Castroneves' 2021 Statistics
Championship Position: 22nd (158 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 2
Laps Led: 35
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 14.667 
Average Finish: 16.333

An Early Look Ahead
With Harvey leaving the team, Simon Pagenaud will join his former Team Penske cohort Castroneves in the Meyer Shank Racing lineup in 2022. 

Harvey built a good identity with the team and it felt like the partnership was going to continue for many years to come. However, I think one of the reasons results were lacking is the team itself and that is one reason why Harvey left. 

There were a handful of races in 2021 where the team got the strategy wrong, either bringing Harvey in too early or having him stay out too long. Harvey's qualifying results did dip from an average around 8.8 to 13.714. However, his average finish only fell from 12.2 to 13.0, which wasn't great to begin with, but wasn't terrible either. There were strategy choices that cost him top ten and possibly top five finishes at Road America and Nashville. 

Pagenaud moves over after a rough two-year period with Team Penske. His qualifying average has fallen tremendously, dropping to a career worst 15.9 in 2020, but he picked it up to 11.0 this year. While the Frenchman saw a tick up on the qualifying speed, his race finishes dipped. Two podium finishes matched his fewest in a season, his three top five finishes are his fewest in a season and he led only 12 laps, his fewest in a full season. Pagenaud was eighth in the championship for the second consecutive year.

Meanwhile, Castroneves might have won the Indianapolis 500 and finished ninth at Nashville, but he was 20th or worse in his final four starts. He started outside the top ten in three of those races with a surprising third-place qualifying result at Long Beach appearing to be more of an exception than the rule. Castroneves has made 13 IndyCar starts since his last full season in 2017. He has three top ten finishes and six finishes outside the top twenty. 

When Castroneves first exited IndyCar full-time, he was on a streak of six consecutive top five championship finishes and nine top five championship finishes in his last ten seasons. He will turn 47 years old on May 10 next year. I am not sure how much MSR can expect out of Castroneves and how long they will be committed to him. 

I think Pagenaud still has something in the tank, a lot in the tank actually, and while his results were not great in 2021, he is a competitive driver who is regularly in the top ten. Pagenaud could turn MSR into a regular contender and pull out a few victories. I just don't feel as good about Castroneves. He might have a few good days but I don't think Castroneves will be close to the Frenchman. I think we could see the two MSR drivers at different ends of the table at the end of 2022.

More than the drivers, what could decide MSR's success is its strategizing. It cannot continue to take front-running cars and put them at the back. The team was taking chances as if it was a mid-pack team, but its speed has it at the front. It cannot be running in the top five or six and act like it is running 13th and has to try something different. There are times to go off-strategy and take a risk, but it has to do a better job discerning when to roll the dice and when to stick to the plan.