Saturday, February 29, 2020

Let's Look at the League - 2020 IndyCar Season

Last year, I tried something new and broke the IndyCar grid into a league that featured head-to-head match ups at each race, featured a playoff and promotion and regulation. We are going to do the same thing this year.

In case you are new, back when everyone thought the legalization of sports gambling meant more people could end up watching IndyCar I thought the issue with motorsports is it needs more than betting on the outright race winner. People need something to watch within the race and head-to-head match ups between drivers provide that. It makes a battle for 12th possibly meaningful. It is also unpredictable. On paper, you might think Will Power will finish ahead of Marcus Ericsson at Belle Isle but all of a sudden Power has an issue and Ericsson is on the podium.

This league format not only provided head-to-head match ups but set up a full schedule throughout the entire season with consequences and a playoff format that ran counter to the actual championship.

Because of the size of the IndyCar grid, I split the drivers into two leagues. The top league was split into two conferences of eight entries. Every entry faces the other seven entries in its conference twice. The top four from each conference advance to the playoffs. The bottom entry from each conference is relegated. The top two from the second league are promoted.

With the background out of the way, let's get started on 2020!

What Do The Leagues Look Like?
The 14 entries that remained in the top league were the three Penske entries, the two Ganassi entries, the two Rahal Letterman Lanigan entries, the two Arrow McLaren SP entries, three Andretti entries (#27, #28 and #98), the #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry and the #18 Dale Coyne Racing entry.

The promoted entries were the #19 Coyne and #14 A.J. Foyt Racing. The #19 Coyne entry has been changed to the #55 Coyne entry since Álex Palou has joined the team. Santino Ferrucci does get promoted into the top league because he will take over the #18 Coyne entry. Though the two AMSP cars have new drivers than the ones who drove last year and kept those entries up in the top-tier.

The conferences were determined by snaking the 16 entries based on entrant points and the conference will look like this:

Conference 1
#1 Penske
#9 Ganassi
#12 Penske
#30 RLLR
#15 RLLR
#19 Coyne
#20 ECR
#7 AMSP

Conference 2
#22 Penske
#27 Andretti
#10 Ganassi
#28 Andretti
#18 Coyne
#5 AMSP
#14 Foyt
#98 Andretti

With League One out of the way, let's get to the second league, because this is where changes occur and in a good way. League Two was six entries last year and this year it will be eight entries because Meyer Shank Racing will be full-time and Ganassi has expanded to three car with Marcus Ericsson.

The #8 Ganassi entry and #60 MSR entry join the relegated entries, the #21 Ed Carpenter Racing entry and the #26 Andretti entry. Despite all of Colton Herta's success, in head-to-head match ups the #88 Harding Steinbrenner Racing entry remains in League Two. The merger with the Andretti team does not effect that team's status. Both Carlin entries and the #4 Foyt entry rounds out League Two and it will look like this:

League Two
#88 AHSR
#21 ECR
#26 Andretti
#59 Carlin
#4 Foyt
#31 Carlin
#8 Ganassi
#60 MSR

What Other Changes Are There?
Last year, the regular season for League One was 14 weeks with the playoffs taking place over the final three weeks.

League Two's schedule was 15 weeks with each entry facing each other three times. With League Two expanding, the schedule will change to each entry facing each other twice, just like League One.

I was thinking, because while there was something to watch in each race, it was rather dull in the final three weeks. In week 15 last year, the Gateway race, we had the four quarterfinals and the final three match ups in League Two but there were eight entries not participating. At Portland, the only match ups were the semifinals and the final was the only match up at Laguna Seca.

I think we could do more and have more going on throughout the entry season.

Here is what will be the same in 2020:

The League One playoffs stay the same. The top four from each conference advance to the playoffs over the final three weeks.

The bottom team from each League One conference is automatically relegated. The top two from League Two are automatically promoted.

The new stuff will be this:

Fifth in each League One conference is guaranteed safety.

Sixth and seventh in each League One conference enter a relegation playoff. During week 15, sixth from Conference One faces seventh from Conference Two and vice versa and the winners from those match ups are guaranteed safety for the 2021 season. The losers face-off in week 16 and the winner that week is guaranteed safety.

In League Two, the third place team faces sixth place in week 15 and fourth place faces fifth place. The winners will advance to a matchup in week 16.

At week 17, we will have a playoff between the loser from week 16 in the League One relegation playoff against the winner from week 16 in the League Two promotion playoff. The winner in week 17 gets the final spot in League One for 2021.

It is a little more and it keeps more teams involved.

Schedule
League One:
Week One (St. Petersburg)
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR

#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne

Week Two (Barber)
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne

#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP

Week Three (Long Beach)
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR

#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt

Week Four (Austin)
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR

#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt

Week Five (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP

#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti

Week Six (Indianapolis 500)
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP

#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti

Week Seven (Belle Isle I)
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP
#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti

Week Eight (Belle Isle II)
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR

#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne

Week Nine (Texas)
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne

#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP

Week Ten (Road America)
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR

#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt

Week Eleven (Richmond)
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR

#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt

Week Twelve (Toronto)
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP

#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti

Week Thirteen (Iowa)
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP

#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti

Week Fourteen (Mid-Ohio)
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP
#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti

League Two
Week One (St. Petersburg)
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt

Week Two (Barber)
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin

Week Three (Long Beach)
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR

Week Four (Austin)
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR

Week Five (Grand Prix of Indianapolis)
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR

Week Six (Indianapolis 500)
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR

Week Seven (Belle Isle I)
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR

Week Eight (Belle Isle II)
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt

Week Nine (Texas)
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin

Week Ten (Road America)
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR

Week Eleven (Richmond)
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR

Week Twelve (Toronto)
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR

Week Thirteen (Iowa)
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR

Week Fourteen (Mid-Ohio)
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR

Week 15 at Gateway will be the quarterfinals for the championship playoffs and the promotion/relegation playoffs. Week 16 at Portland will be the semifinals for the respective playoffs and the finale for each will be in week 17 at Laguna Seca.

The important thing with this is it is for fun. It is something different that runs concurrent with the actual season. What does it mean? Nothing and we have no idea what could happen. That is what makes it fun. There is nothing more to take from it other than what happens on the track and we have to wait for each race to find out what will happen next.

Like last season, I plan on have a few updates throughout the season to keep up to tabs with who is doing well and who isn't.


Friday, February 28, 2020

This Month in Motorsports Headlines: February 2020

We are almost out of winter. Just a few weeks remain but the calendar is about to change to March, the beginning of the clear in the Northern Hemisphere. With warmer temperatures comes more motorsports series emerging from hibernation but before we look at those we must look at what occurred over this cold, yet not so snowy month in this neck of the woods.

There was plenty of good news and bad news this month. Some was expected, some was disappointing and other news was surprising. Many series were on track testing ahead of a 2020 season and most of these headlines focus on what is occurring off track.

Once again, this is just for fun. In case you are new, this is my gut reaction to headlines without reading the article. Of course, the gripes I have may be answered in the article.

There are nine headlines this month and we will start with IndyCar and a name that may or may not be in Indianapolis during the month of May.

Schmidt: Fans deserve to see Alonso in the Indy 500 again
Deserves got nothing to do with it.

Sam Schmidt and his Arrow McLaren SP operation have stepped up and given Fernando Alonso a ride for the 2020 Indianapolis 500 after a period of uncertainty. Alonso had ended his ambassadorial role with McLaren. Alonso had a deal done with Andretti Autosport only for Honda's headquarters in Japan to veto a deal on the precipice of it being announced. There were no other big suitors out there for Alonso and he wasn't going to step down for a ride with a smaller operation.

As for deserves, it would be great to see a driver who wants to be at the Indianapolis 500 get a ride for the Indianapolis 500 but there are plenty of drivers that want to be at the Indianapolis 500 that do not end up on the entry list. Do you really think Gabby Chaves, Carlos Muñoz, Sébastien Bourdais, Juan Pablo Montoya and Pippa Mann want to be on the sidelines come May? No, but there are always more drivers than there are available entries. That sucks but it is reality.

Quick sidebar, I am fascinated with the Alonso kickback. People longed for the biggest names to come to the Indianapolis 500, they longed for driver competing in multiple disciplines and we got that. Alonso skipped the Monaco Grand Prix to run the Indianapolis 500, ran Formula One and the FIA World Endurance Championship simultaneously, still has a desire to run the Indianapolis 500 and even added the Dakar Rally to his plate and people pushback against his participation? Come on people, you are getting what you want and now you are rejecting it? That is on you.

Jimmie Johnson confirms IndyCar, Rolex 24, Le Mans on wish list
So Johnson confirmed he has a wish list. For someone who has a wish list, has seven NASCAR championships and is probably good with Chevrolet from now until the day he dies, commit to a few things.

The problem with any driver and an event that is outside of that driver's full-time series it is always "I would like to" or "I want to," how about "I am" and "I will." These are drivers that have talent and more importantly do no have financial insecurity. Just say you are going to do it.

We get too accustomed to wish lists only for a driver to do one or two things after they retire and never see them again (hi Jeff Gordon). These drivers talk a big game but their retirements end up just like 98% of our grandparents, mostly staying at home for 360 of 365 days of the year and eating ice cream on the couch.

Now, let's slide fully into NASCAR...

Kyle Busch has done it all -- except win the Daytona 500
And the Truck championship, and the Charlotte roval race, and the Eldora truck race, and he has never won pole position for the Daytona 500...

And there are a load of events he has never competed in such as the Indianapolis 500 and the 24 Hours of Le Mans, both of which he has expressed interest in doing, he has never run the Chili Bowl or the Knoxville Nationals, he has never raced the 12 Hours of Sebring or 24 Hours Nürburgring, and he has never driven a Formula One car although a decade ago Toyota nearly made that happen only for the manufacture to pull out of the series effectively killing any reason to have such a test...

Other than those items, and a couple hundred others that could be listed but weren't for the sake of time, Kyle Busch has done it all.

Why Vegas is 'The Race of Champions'
Many times during the NASCAR season I hear "look at how many champions have won at this track" when the series is going to say Bristol, Darlington, Daytona, Dover, etc.

Guess what? Champions win races. Name the tracks champions don't win at? You can take any racetrack and pick out the champions that have won there. For the most part, it is going to be the same everywhere... which brings me to what I did over the weekend...

We can look up how many races champions have won at each track. It is simple research. What tracks have a disproportion of champions as race winners and vice versa, what tracks have a disproportion of non-champions as race winners?

Through the second race of the 2020 NASCAR season, the track with the highest percentage of races with champions as race winners is... Kentucky?

Kentucky has had nine Cup races and all nine races had a champion win the race. Nine is small sample size compared to other tracks on the schedule. The next track with the fewest Cup races is Chicagoland with only 19 races.

But let's run with this, in nine years Kentucky has only had Cup champions win its race. What track is next?

Indianapolis. Only five Brickyard 400s out of 26 have had a non-champion win, meaning 19.23% of its winners are non-champions. Bristol is next at 22.88% (27/118) and the site of this weekend's NASCAR race Fontana is fourth at 23.333% (7/30). With Joey Logano's victory at Las Vegas only 24% of races at that track have had a non-champion be the race winner (6/25). Richmond and Kansas are the other two tracks that have had less than 30% of its winners are non-champions at 28.34% and 28.57% respectively.

What tracks have a disproportional number of non-champion winners?

Watkins Glen has hosted 37 Cup races and 21 of those races had a non-champion win. That is 56.75%. No other track has seen majority of its races not won by a champion. Next highest is Talladega at 47.52% (48/101) with Charlotte next at 46.666% (56/120) and Daytona, just including the Daytona 500 and the 400-mile race and not counting the Daytona 500 qualifying races when they counted as championship events, is fourth-highest at 46.34% (57/123). Loudon and Texas are the only other tracks above 40% non-champion winners at 45.83% and 44.73% respectively.

The average percentage of non-champion race winners across the 23 tracks on the Cup schedule is 33.97%. The ten tracks that fall between 30% and 40% non-champion winners are Dover, Chicagoland, Atlanta, Homestead, Michigan, Pocono, Martinsville, Phoenix, Sonoma and Darlington.

Moving to Formula One...

Brawn wants F1 to ditch "gin palace" motorhomes
Tell that to the gin palace owners.

There are a lot of other things that need to be fixed in Formula One before we get to the gin palaces. If you think the gin palaces are the first things that have to go you cannot see the forest through the trees.

Getting rid of the gin palaces would save the teams a good sum of money. I was astounded at how much hospitality suites cost for each team and they set those things up and breaking them down for every race. That is a crap-load of money for something that has nothing to do with how the car is performing on track.

Even if Formula One ditched the gin palaces, tickets would not get more affordable for fans, fans would not get better access to the drivers and people could not get any closer to the cars. If Brawn wanted to proposed better fan access, have more fan walks and such than great but getting rid of the gin palaces, even if they are excessive and should probably go

STRAW: Can Vettel save his career?
Yes... by leaving Ferrari...

No, I kid, he could save his career but it looks like Mercedes-Benz (more on Mercedes in a moment) is going to wipe the floor this year and even if Vettel is third driving for Ferrari I think his days are numbered. Charles Leclerc is the future and soon Ferrari will be looking for a number two to accompany the Monegasque driver.

And, does Vettel's career need saving? The man has four World Drivers' Championships. He has the third-most grand prix victories. I think he has had a great career. It just so happens his career runs parallel with Lewis Hamilton's and after winning four consecutive world titles Vettel finds himself two titles and over 30 victories behind Hamilton after having the upper hand for the first half of the 2010s.

If Vettel's career is remember negatively it is because of what Hamilton accomplished and Vettel failed to accomplish in the second half of his career despite being dominant for the first half of his career.

DAS already banned by 2021 technical regulations
That did not take long.

Mercedes-Benz rolled out its Dual Axis Steering in the first Barcelona test and while it was within the regulations the FIA made sure such a system could not live beyond the 2020 season.

When I first saw the DAS in action I was giddy. We have gotten little tricks like this before, double-diffusers, F-Ducts, etc. but this was something meant to trick the eye. We have all seen steering wheels be used ten billion times before but never look this. A wheel is something you pull left or right for directional purposes. To pull it out and push it in to adjust the toe of the car is remarkable. It is something so simple and yet something we have never seen before and something the commoner could not have considered. This is why commoners are not hired to work on Formula One cars.

Mercedes smacked the field at the first test and it seems a seventh consecutive World Constructors' Championship is inevitable.

We will end with another world championship...

Aston Martin won't race WEC hypercar in 2020/21
Congratulations to Toyota on its 2020-21 championship and its 2021 24 Hours of Le Mans victory.

Just like that the entire hypercar ball of yarn has begun to unravel.

WEC: Aston hypercar postponement "not unexpected"
At least they were ready for it.

At the start of the year it seemed we were in a good place. It seemed like hypercar was going to slowly grow with Toyota and Aston Martin in year one, Glickenhaus possibly coming the year after that and Peugeot joining the series in 2022. Along with hypercar, the FIA, ACO and IMSA were working on convergence for the Daytona Prototype international class and it could allow a handful more teams and manufactures to go to Le Mans.

Now it appears hypercar is close to dead and the LMDh class is not coming until start of the 2021-22 WEC season. Back to the drawing board on this one.

February is nearly over. We have one extra day this year and that allows for one extra of racing. While World Superbike and Formula E are in competition, ahead of us is the start to the MotoGP, IndyCar and Formula One seasons. We have another Sebring doubleheader with IMSA and WEC and plenty of more racing is to come.


Thursday, February 27, 2020

2020 IndyCar Team Preview: Team Penske

We conclude the 2020 IndyCar team previews with the defending champions, Team Penske.

It was another stout year for the Team Penske organization in 2019. It won over half the races. It won just under half the pole positions. It had all three full-time drivers in the top five of the championship. It won its 16th IndyCar championship and it won its 18th Indianapolis 500.

The 2020 season will see the same three faces full-time, Josef Newgarden, Simon Pagenaud and Will Power will all be back but there will be some changes in the Team Penske landscape. Hélio Castroneves will be back for the Indianapolis 500 for what could be his 20th start but at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis back-to-back Supercars champion Scott McLaughlin will make his IndyCar debut.

2019 Team Penske Review
Wins: 9 (St. Petersburg, Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Indianapolis 500, Belle Isle I, Texas, Toronto, Iowa, Pocono, Portland)
Poles: 8 (St. Petersburg, Austin, Indianapolis 500, Belle Isle II, Toronto, Iowa, Mid-Ohio, Gateway)
Championship Finishes: 1st (Josef Newgarden), 2nd (Simon Pagenaud), 5th (Will Power)

2020 Drivers:

Josef Newgarden - #1 Hitachi Chevrolet
The 2019 season could not have started any better for Josef Newgarden: A victory in St. Petersburg. This victory came with a timely pit stop and clear track position while Felix Rosenqvist and Will Power stretched out their first stints but lost time in traffic. It flipped the racetrack and allowed Newgarden to go through to the lead whilst those two made their pit stops.

Newgarden had a top five run at Austin and moved up to a second place finish in the final stint. He was the top Chevrolet finishers at Barber in fourth and picked up another runner-up finish at Long Beach. Through the first four races of 2019, Newgarden was the top finishing Chevrolet each time.

At the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Newgarden led some laps through pit cycle and it appeared the race would end with a good position for him. Unfortunately, he made the wrong choice under yellow to put on slicks when the rain got heavier. When he made the additional pit stop to put on the wet weather tires, one tire rolled away in the pit lane, handing Newgarden a penalty and putting a nail into his coffin of having any chance of a respectable finish.

Though Newgarden was not the best Penske car in the Indianapolis 500, he drove a respectable race and finished fourth. At Belle Isle, Newgarden was looking like he was going to finish fifth but made the decision to put on slick tires when the track was partially dry. A caution came out for Ed Jones in the tires after that stop while Newgarden was on pit lane and it allowed Newgarden to cycle to the lead. In the closing laps, Newgarden had to hold off a determined Alexander Rossi and keep it on the dry portion of the road. He managed to do both and took his second victory of the season.

The second Belle Isle race was not as good. Again in contention for a top five finish, Newgarden was battling with Rossi and both were trying to leapfrog James Hinchcliffe after Hinchcliffe had made a pit stop. Hinchcliffe defended the inside of the straightaway into turn three and that is where he, Newgarden and Rossi all came together. Hinchcliffe spun, Rossi spun and got away and Newgarden went into the tires with Hinchcliffe. Newgarden's day was done. Hinchcliffe's day would end a little later.

Texas was a chance for Newgarden to bounce back and he was looking like a sixth or seventh place finisher but Tim Cindric made the call to make his third pit stop under caution instead of making his final two pit stops under green flag conditions. While the rest of the stopped, Newgarden took the lead and ran hard in the laps leading to the pit window for the final stop. The final stop was made and Newgarden came out as the leader. In the final laps he again had a charged Rossi on his heels but again Newgarden pulled out the victory.

Summer started with a third at Road America and fourth at Toronto. At Iowa, one year after thrashing the field only to botch it and finish fourth, Newgarden did not let another victory slip through his grasp. He led 245 laps and took his fourth victory of the season. Mid-Ohio saw Newgarden cough up some points. Set for a fourth place finish and extending his championship lead, Newgarden attempted a move on Ryan Hunter-Reay for third in the keyhole, the two drivers made contact, Newgarden went around and stalled in the gravel, dropping him to 14th in the final results.

While coughing up points at Mid-Ohio, he made it up and then some at Pocono after Rossi was collected in the first lap accident. Newgarden ran a clean race and finished fifth. He was one of the top drivers at Gateway but was shuffled back after the final caution due to a handful of drivers not making their final pit stop. On the final lap, Santino Ferrucci ran wide in turn four and came down in front of Newgarden, Newgarden took evasive action, spinning to avoid Ferrucci and went from a fifth place finish to seventh.

The attrition at Portland allowed Newgarden to rise from 14th on the grid to seventh at the checkered flag and it allowed him to carry a comfortable margin into Laguna Seca. At the finale, Newgarden rode the rear wing of Alexander Rossi knowing that is all he had to do. In the closing laps, Newgarden dropped back a few more positions but he had the title locked up. An eighth place finish secured him his second IndyCar championship.

Numbers to Remember:
16: Newgarden led the championship after 16 of 17 races in 2019.

1: Newgarden trailed in the championship after only the Indianapolis 500 and he exited that race one point behind Simon Pagenaud in the championship.

490: Laps led in 2019, the most in a single-season for Newgarden.

404.6: Average number of laps led in a season since 2015.

5.6: Average finish in 2019, a single-season best.

10: Different tracks won at in Newgarden's IndyCar career (five ovals, three road courses, two street courses)

Predictions/Goals:
With two championships under his belt I think the goal for Josef Newgarden is to win the Indianapolis 500.

Championships are great and if he wins another this year with victories at Barber, Richmond, Iowa, Mid-Ohio, Portland and Laguna Seca, Roger Penske is not going to complain but Newgarden wants an Indianapolis 500, he is driving for Team Penske and in this scenario an Indianapolis 500 is not a lot to ask for.

When looking at all the great drivers that have gone through Team Penske not many having left without winning an Indianapolis 500. There are some exceptions: Gary Bettenhausen, Tom Sneva, Mario Andretti, Paul Tracy and Ryan Briscoe but outside of those five drivers every other big name to run the Indianapolis 500 for Team Penske has pretty much picked up at least one Borg-Warner Trophy along the way.

Newgarden still has plenty of time. He is 29 years old and Team Penske is not letting him go any time soon but off the back of Will Power winning the race in 2018 and Simon Pagenaud winning the race in 2019, a victory for Newgarden in 2020 would silent a lot of questions in the future.

If there is one place for Newgarden to improve it is at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. In six starts in that race his best finish is 11th and his average finish is 15.8. Even his average starting position is not that great at 12.3 with Newgarden starting in the top ten on only two occasions. A win in that race would be a great way to get that monkey off his back but he really just needs one race where qualifies somewhere in the top ten and ends up around fifth or sixth. You do not want this bugaboo hanging around for another year.

Besides that, Newgarden just has to keep up what he is doing. The guy has led a stupid number of laps the last five seasons. He is going to win races and winning races means he will be in the championship discussion. I think we all know he has to avoid the pitfalls of his 2018 title defense, where he won three races but those were his only podium finishes that season.

We also need to remember we are entering 2020 with Newgarden having failed to finish on the podium in the previous five races. He ended 2019 finishing just well enough to hold on to the title and it benefitted him that none of his championship rival jumped up and put a lot of pressure on him. I think it will be important to Newgarden to be solid out of the box, get a podium finish in one of the first three races and pick up a victory before we get into the month of May.

Will Power - #12 Verizon Chevrolet
Power's 11th season with Team Penske began with another pole position at St. Petersburg and in the race Power ran a competitive pace. He led his share of laps and had a good battle with Felix Rosenqvist but traffic prior to his first pit stop held him up and he exited out of contention for the lead. He held on for a third place result.

Austin was a dominant race from Power. He won another pole position and led from the start but had Alexander Rossi breathing down his neck the entire way. With it appearing the race would come down to the final pit stop the entire race was shaken up when Rosenqvist had his accident exiting the penultimate corner. Power and Rossi had yet to stop. Both were set to lose a lot of track position and be taken out of contention for the victory. Power's race ended when his driveshaft broke when the pneumatic jack was released on his final pit stop.

Things were not much better at Barber. Power spun early and lost some ground but he fought his way back up to 11th, picking up fastest lap as a consolation prize. A pair of seventh place finishes followed at Long Beach and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Power shot himself in the foot in the Indianapolis 500 after clipping a crew member on a pit stop. Without that final caution, Power would have finished outside the top ten but the timing of it all allowed him to re-emerge in a top ten position and he pulled out a fourth place finish.

The first race at Belle Isle was lost when the right front wheel nut was not secured and he left the pit lane. In the second race, he was running at the front only to have a gearbox hiccup drop him from the top ten. Through an aggressive strategy to run a five-lap stint on the alternate tire, a handful of cautions and other drivers struggling with tires, Power pulled out a third place finish.

Power ended spring with a ninth at Texas and started summer in second, albeit a distant second to Rossi, at Road America. Toronto was a mess. He was in the turn eight tires on lap one and he was in the turn eight tires on the final lap. A top five finish seemed certain at Iowa but an improper pit entry on his final stop knocked him down to 15th. He started on pole position again at Mid-Ohio but could only manage fourth with a two-stop strategy.

We got to see Will Power's 500-mile race magic again at Pocono. He spent the first portion of the race biding his time but when the rain clouds started appearing on the horizon Power took it to another level and left the field in his dust. Lightning struck, the cars stopped, rain followed, the race was called and Power got his first victory of 2019. All that momentum was lost at Gateway when Power got into the marbles and into the wall after only 52 laps.

With all the bad fortune Power had in the first 15 races of 2019 it was fitting to see him on the right side of fortune at Portland. He was running well but Scott Dixon had a better start and was ahead of Power. Dixon held a comfortable lead while Power was in second but electrical issues soured the New Zealander's race and an Australian was the main beneficiary. He went pretty much unchallenged from there and picked up his second victory of the season. He started seventh for the season finale at Laguna Seca but with nothing to lose ran an aggressive race and found himself in second, pressuring Colton Herta in the closing laps. While Power was close he could not get all the way there and he ended his season with a runner-up finish.

Numbers to Remember:
4: Starts outside the top ten in the final 11 races of 2019 after having 33 consecutive top ten starts from Belle Isle II in 2017 to the 2019 Indianapolis 500.

5.9: Average finish in 2019, his worst since 8.5 in 2014.

239: Laps led in 2019.

11: Consecutive seasons where Power has had triple-digit laps led.

10: Consecutive seasons finishing in the top five of the championship.

Predictions/Goals:
Fewer retirements and do something to secure his job.

In the last three seasons it seems Power has at least three races where he drops out because of something out of his control, whether it be mechanical or another car hitting him. It is not his fault but these results always seem to stack up and they end up taking him out of the championship fight.

I am sure Power knows it has to be avoided but they are also problems out of his control. He can only take so much blame when the driveshaft snaps on him or the gearbox jams at the start of a race.

Power is the Penske driver on the hot seat now. I am not saying he is in trouble but Simon Pagenaud won the Indianapolis 500 and finished second in the championship. Newgarden won a second championship in three seasons. It was only two seasons ago Power was sipping the milk in Indianapolis glory but it is a what have you done for me lately operation at Team Penske and if this is just another ho-hum year for Power with two victories but those victories being at Texas and Mid-Ohio and he ends up fifth in the championship the team will start looking to see if there is someone out there who can get better results than that. It is dog eat dog and Power has to be ready to bite.

We have seen Power become an oval stud the last few years and he needs to maintain that but he needs to pick up his road and street course results. They are not bad but he has not had multiple victories on road/street courses since he had three in 2016. It is the little things that are keeping Power from a possible second championship and it is a case of he needs two or three road course victories combined with two or three oval victories to get his hands back on the Astor Cup.

Power is going to be fine like all Team Penske drivers. He is going to have strong cars, win a few races and likely end up somewhere between a championship contender and fifth in the championship but Power has not put together a championship threat deep into a season since he won the title in 2014 and that has to change.

Simon Pagenaud - #22 Menards/DXC Technology Chevrolet
It was a slow start to the 2019 season for Mr. Pagenaud.

Pagenaud had a good run to seventh at St. Petersburg, couldn't get the car right at Austin and contact with Alexander Rossi late forced an extra pit stop dropping him to 19th. He was good but not great at Barber in ninth and he could only manage sixth at Long Beach.

With plenty of rumblings about Pagenaud's future at Team Penske leading into the month of May what transpired over three consecutive weekends could not have been any more timely. In a race where everyone knew the rain was coming but did not know when it would show up the tension that hung over the race was immense. No one wanted to make a pit stop in fear that the rain would give three minutes later and force an additional pit stop.

Pagenaud worked his way into the top five and it was going to be another good day. He did have to make an extra pit stop when it was time to put on wet weather tires but his car was prepared for it and he was unstoppable. He went from sixth to second in 11 laps. He was 5.5 seconds behind Scott Dixon with six laps to go and with no push-to-pass. On pure pace, Pagenaud ran down Dixon and in turn nine with two laps to go Pagenaud slid on through to the lead. Dixon had nothing to counter with. Pagenaud was gone and took the victory, his first since the 2017 season finale at Sonoma.

A week later, Pagenaud took pole position for the Indianapolis 500. The week after that Pagenaud led the field to the green flag and he had one of the best cars in the race. The only problem was while Pagenaud led a bunch of laps he and the rest of the Chevrolet drivers struggled to match the fuel mileage of the Honda drivers. At the pace they were running Pagenaud and the Chevrolets were going to have to make an extra pit stop. Rossi benefitted and put the hammer down, taking the lead.

Sometimes, things just are on your side. The caution for Graham Rahal and Sébastien Bourdais getting together in turn three neutralized the Honda fuel mileage advantage. Pagenaud was back in the battle and he and Rossi traded punches over the final 14 laps of that race. The two drivers traded the lead but with two laps to go Pagenaud made his move into turn three and it stuck. Rossi challenged but could not re-take the lead. Pagenaud took the victory and he left the month of May with 163 of 166 possible points and the championship lead.

The championship lead would be short lived. While Pagenaud was not able to re-create his wet-weather magic at Belle Isle, he did go from 13th to sixth. The second race was not as fortunate. Pagenaud was caught in a lap one accident and could not overcome the damage done. He got back on the horse and finished sixth at Texas. At Road America, he went from 16th to seventh in the first nine laps but his race stalled out and he finished ninth.

Another dominant day came at Toronto, winning pole position and leading 80 of 85 laps and picking up his third victory of the season. Another pole position followed at Iowa but the dominance entered there. He ended up finishing fourth.

Pagenaud's season concluded with finishes of sixth, third, fifth, seventh and fourth at Mid-Ohio, Pocono, Gateway, Portland and Laguna Seca respectively.

Numbers to Remember:
9: Retirements in his IndyCar career out of 152 starts.

14: Victories in his IndyCar career out of 152 starts.

25: Lapped finishes in his IndyCar career out of 152 starts.

32: Podium finishes in his IndyCar career out of 152 starts.

97.831: Percentage of possible laps Pagenaud has completed in his IndyCar career. He has completed 18,809 of 19,226 laps. He had failed to complete only 417 laps in 152 starts.

Predictions/Goals:
Continue doing what you did in 2019.

The reason I did a career synopsis for Pagenaud above is to show how consistent this guy is and how it would have been absurd it would have been if Team Penske had gotten rid of him after 2019. It is a what have you done for me lately operation but Pagenaud does not put a wheel wrong that often. He gets the car to the finish all the time and simply by doing that he gets solid results. Did he have a slump of sorts in 2018 when did not find victory? Yes, but with his consistency and his pace it was only a matter of time before those victories would come his way.

While Pagenaud finished second in the championship and second to Newgarden I am not sure he was the second best driver in 2019. He did win three races but he had four podium finishes all season. After the Indianapolis 500 he led a lap in only four of the remaining 11 races with two of those races being two laps led at Iowa and one lap led at Laguna Seca. In the six races Pagenaud did lead in 2019, three of them saw him lead five laps or fewer. The other race being the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, where he led five laps but picked up the victory.

There is still room for improvement for Pagenaud. He needs a little more of everything, another victory, another two or three podium finishes and another five races with a lap led and a few more races where he is leading 40-60% of the race.

Pagenaud did have the worst average starting position among the Penske drivers in 2019 at 8.7 while Newgarden and Power were both under six. Pagenaud started outside the top ten on seven occasions and all seven of those races were a road or a street course. Starting at the back of those races makes it really tough to get a great finish. It would be really beneficially if he could lower that average starting position by at least two positions and advance to the second round of road/street course qualifying at least seven times.

The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET.


Wednesday, February 26, 2020

2020 IndyCar Team Preview: Carlin

Our penultimate 2020 IndyCar team preview takes us to the team that used the most drivers in 2019. It is Carlin!

The team's sophomore season did not go quite as planned but the team showed potential. Now Carlin hopes to put together better results in 2020 but it will have to do it with uncertainty over its 2020 driver lineup. Three of the six drivers used in 2019 have found rides elsewhere for this season and it appears it will be another season where both cars will see multiple drivers cycle through the seats over the course of the 17-race schedule.

2019 Carlin Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 6th (Gateway)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 22nd (Max Chilton), 24th (Conor Daly), 25th (Charlie Kimball), 26th (Patricio O'Ward), 27th (Sage Karam), 35th (RC Enerson)

2020 Drivers:

Felipe Nasr - #31 Carlin Chevrolet
Nasr has spent the last two years in IMSA's WeatherTech SportsCar Championship in the #31 Cadillac for Action Express Racing with 2020 marking his third season with the team.

Since coming to America, Nasr won the 2018 Prototype championship with Eric Curran with a victory at Belle Isle, a runner-up at Daytona and podium finishes at Sebring, Mosport and Road America. In 2019, Nasr had Pipo Derani join him as co-driver and the all-Brazilian pairing won at Sebring and Petit Le Mans, had a runner-up finish at Daytona and Belle Isle but the duo was second in the championship.

Prior to Nasr's time in IMSA, he spent two years driving for Sauber in Formula One and he scored a fifth place finish on debut in the 2015 Australian Grand Prix. That 2015 season ended with 27 points, 15th in the championship and 18 points clear of teammate Marcus Ericsson. In 2016, Sauber struggled and it was the last team to score points but it came with Nasr at Brazil with a ninth place finish securing him two points and those two points lifted Sauber to tenth in the constructors' championship over Manor.

Nasr was also the 2008 Formula BMW Europe champion and 2011 British Formula Three champion.

Numbers to Remember:
6: Nasr has raced at six tracks on the 2020 IndyCar schedule between IMSA and Formula One (Austin, Long Beach, Belle Isle, Mid-Ohio, Laguna Seca).

10: Podium finishes in 21 IMSA starts

78: Starts for Nasr with Carlin between Formula Three and GP2.

Predictions/Goals:
Have respectable races.

Nasr has been on the periphery for IndyCar for the last few years and he tested with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports. The problem is in the recent past Nasr's testing experience has been used to lift the cache of Álex Palou, who reportedly was almost 6/10ths of a second faster than Nasr at a Mid-Ohio test last year.

Nasr has Formula One experience and did reasonably well driving for Sauber. He has come to IMSA, won a championship as a rookie, was vice-champion as a sophomore, won the 12 Hours of Sebring, won Petit Le Mans and he has been one of the best drivers in American sports car racing.

We do not know how many races Nasr will do with Carlin, if any, but whatever races he does will be used by some as a vindication for writing Nasr off as a hack if the finishes are not at least in the middle of the field and not beating whoever his Carlin teammate is that day.

Carlin showed bright spots last year. The team had good qualifying pace and got some encouraging results with Charlie Kimball, Patricio O'Ward, Conor Daly, and even Max Chilton had some good runs.

This team can get a few top ten finishes but I am not sure it is on the verge of challenging for top five results and I am not sure Nasr will necessarily step right in and in a handful of races be running for eighth or ninth.

I think the goal for Nasr is to at least be close to making it out of the first round of qualifying in every road and street course event he gets, make it to the second round of qualifying at least once and in the races be the top finishing Carlin driver. If he is at least responsible for the team's best finish it is not going to reflect that poorly on him.

Sérgio Sette Câmara - #31 Carlin Chevrolet
Câmara completed his third season in Formula Two in 2019 with last season being his first with the DAMS program.

The year started with a pair of podium finishes at the opening round in Bahrain but he would not get his first victory until the 12th race of the season, the sprint race at Red Bull Ring. He won the Abu Dhabi feature race from pole position and ended his season with two victories, eight podium finishes and 17 points finishes from 22 races to give him fourth in the championship.

Câmara spent his first two years in Formula Two driving for MP Motorsport and Carlin. In 2017, he did not score a point in the first 14 races of the season but closed the year with points in seven of the final eight races, including a victory in the Spa-Francorchamps sprint race and a runner-up finish in the Monza sprint race, elevating him to 12th in the championship. With Carlin, he did not win a race but he had eight podium finishes and was sixth in the championship despite missing the Monaco round due to an injury.

From 2014 to 2016, Câmara made 66 starts in Formula Three with no victories four podium finishes and 22 points finishes.

Numbers to Remember:
9: Of 18 podium finishes in Câmara's podium finishes came in sprint races.

14: Top five finishes in Formula Two last year.

15: Points behind MP Motorsport teammate Jordan King in 2017.

Predictions/Goals:
Be competitive with Marcus Ericsson and Santino Ferrucci and run better than Jordan King did in IndyCar.

Câmara is coming off a good period in Formula Two and he was a championship contender for most of 2019. He won races against the likes of Nyck de Vries, Nicholas Latifi, Luca Ghiotto and Jack Aitken. That is a good group of drivers in Formula Two. Câmara was a McLaren development driver. This is a late bloomer when you look at his Formula Three results and then compare it to the last two seasons in Formula Two.

Ericsson and Ferrucci are two drivers that are fresh off careers in Europe. Ferrucci and Câmara were contemporaries for a few seasons with Ferrucci getting better results in Formula Three with Câmara taking the upper hand in Formula Two. King beat Câmara in the championship as teammate in 2017, the year before King came to IndyCar but King's GP2/Formula Two results did not reach the heights of Câmara.

Câmara's history suggests he falls in line with these three and all have shown promise but have only had one real season in IndyCar apiece. Ericsson and Ferrucci were both in the top five at times, each had weekends where they matched the pace with other IndyCar front-runners and King was known for his strong qualifying pace but the race results did not follow. If Câmara can get a handful of top ten finishes and make it out of the first round of qualifying a few times he will be on the right track for hopefully more in IndyCar in 2021.

Similar to Nasr, we are not sure how many races Câmara will get, if any. He could get three or four races and that is not a big enough sample size to draw anything from. If it is a 50-50 split of the races and Câmara gets eight or nine races we will get a better idea where he lines up. If he gets 11-14 races then we will get a good feel if he has a handle on the car.

Max Chilton - #59 Gallagher Chevrolet
Chilton's second season with Carlin started with him starting shotgun on the field at St. Petersburg in 24th. He would climb to a 16th place finish.

Austin appeared to be going better with Chilton starting 13th but he finished a lap down in 21st. He started and finished 22nd at Barber and finished a lap down at Long Beach in 14th. His first lead lap finish of the season was at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis but it was an 18th place finish.

Chilton failed to qualify for the Indianapolis and he followed it up with finishes of 17th and 15th at Belle Isle. Before Texas, Chilton decided to step away from the car for the remaining oval races but he continued for the remainder of the road and street course races.

At Road America, he qualified 22nd and finished 16th. A 14th place finish followed at Toronto. The season closed with a 16th at Mid-Ohio, an 11th at Portland and a 13th at Laguna Seca.

Numbers to Remember:
30: Consecutive starts without a top ten finish.

17: Consecutive finishes.

99.2: Percentage of laps completed in 2019 (960 of 968 laps).

Predictions/Goals:
Get a top ten finish.

Just one top ten finish.

Chilton has had solid days in IndyCar. The last two years have been far from those. He hasn't been completely lost. He did make the Fast Six at Mid-Ohio in 2018. He was 13th in qualifying at Austin and Toronto last year and he qualified tenth at Laguna Seca. The pace is there in the Carlin entries but it just hasn't translated to race pace yet.

I think Chilton can turn it around, not necessarily into a race winner or a guy that is competing for top five finishes every race, but a guy who could get a handful of top ten finishes each season. It would just be nice to see him mix it up with some of the bigger names more often.

Along with getting just one top ten finish, I think Chilton needs to pick up his average qualifying position. It was 18.1 in 2019. If he could get that down to 16.1 or 15.5 that would be a good move.

The other important thing for Chilton is to qualify for the Indianapolis 500. Last year, he missed the race and wasn't really ever showing the speed necessary to make the field of 33. He was fourth in 2017 and led the most laps in that race. He hasn't lost all his ability. Carlin had three entries miss last year when you take into consideration the McLaren effort was in partnership with Carlin. It wasn't all Chilton but after stepping away from the remaining ovals in 2019 he will make another attempt at Indianapolis in May and it would be a big confidence booster if he were to make the field one year later.

I am curious to see what Carlin decides to do with the #59 Chevrolet for the remaining four oval races. Chilton has said the other four oval races do not interest him but the history of Indianapolis is why he will give it another crack. I don't think he will go back on the plans but if the results are going the right way and he felt really good at Indianapolis perhaps there is a chance he takes on the other ovals and instead of splitting this car it is all his own. I don't think that will happen but crazier things have happened.

The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET


Tuesday, February 25, 2020

2020 IndyCar Team Preview: The Part-Timers

Like last year, not every IndyCar competitor will be competing full-time and that is a good thing! While IndyCar has a solid grid of two-dozen full-time entries and a few other additional cars from full-time teams, there are two operations that will only run a handful of races in 2020 and this is where we will preview those teams.

One team is making a long-awaited return to an expanded schedule. The other team is hoping to run more races after its 2019 season ended prematurely and could have at least one new driver in the seat.

2019 DragonSpeed Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 18th (St. Petersburg)
Poles: 0
Championship Finish: 30th (Ben Hanley)

2020 Drivers:

Ben Hanley - #81 DragonSpeed Chevrolet
DragonSpeed made its IndyCar but and it brought its trusted ace Hanley for the season opener. The team caught a bit of fortune in its opening race weekend. After ending up at the bottom of the timesheet for every practice session, a timely red flag for Santino Ferrucci's off-track excursion during the first group of the first round saw Hanley advance to round two, as Hanley was sixth when time ran out on the session and many drivers had yet to put in a hot lap. This allowed Hanley to start 12th on debut but in the race true pace became apparent and Hanley dropped down the order. Though he did not get in any incidents, Hanley and DragonSpeed ended its first race in 18th.

The team returned for Barber, qualified 24st, dead last on the grid, and in this race he moved forward, finishing 21st. Hanley had never ran an oval before the Indianapolis 500 and despite lack of expectations of making the race, Hanley made it on the first day of qualifying, ending up 27th at 227.482 MPH, ahead of full-time drivers Zach Veach and Felix Rosenqvist while James Hinchcliffe, Max Chilton, Patricio O'Ward and Fernando Alonso all had to qualify on the second day. Hanley's Indianapolis 500 debut lasted only 54 laps as a broken driveshaft ended the team's race.

DragonSpeed had planned to run at Road America, Mid-Ohio and Laguna Seca to round out a six-race season but visa issues with crew coming over from Europe prevented the team from entering any races after the Indianapolis 500.

Numbers to Remember:
1: Scheduled race for Hanley in 2020, he is scheduled to run St. Petersburg.

4: Other races DragonSpeed plans to contest in 2020 (Long Beach, Indianapolis 500, Texas, Mid-Ohio and Laguna Seca).

250: Laps completed out of a possible 400 laps.

2: Hanley was two laps down in two of his three starts in 2019 (St. Petersburg and Barber).

Predictions/Goals:
Finish better than 18th and complete at least 109 laps at St. Petersburg.

St. Petersburg is the only race on Hanley's IndyCar schedule and considering that he had not run a single-seater car in nearly a decade when he showed up at St. Petersburg last year, the fact he was only two laps down at St. Petersburg, two laps down at Long Beach and qualified for the Indianapolis 500 when many penned Hanley to miss the race because he had no oval experience and was racing for a team with no oval experience, 2019 was a remarkable year for Hanley.

I am not sure how much more Hanley can get out of his ability in an IndyCar. I think he can improve. The results can get better but it is hard to see him turning into a driver competing for top ten finishes. There is nothing wrong with that. Hanley is a top-notch sports car driver. He has had plenty of success in LMP2 and has done well in LMP1 this FIA World Endurance Championship season.

I think the big goal for Hanley is to get a shot at one of DragonSpeed's other four scheduled races. That is not a guarantee and Hanley has a lot of sports car commitments. Laguna Seca clashes with the European Le Mans Series races at Spa-Francorchamps. Hanley will do St. Petersburg and that will be it but if he gets another shot then good for him.

Colin Braun - #81 DragonSpeed Chevrolet
The 2019 season saw Braun run another year for CORE Autosport in IMSA's prototype class with Jon Bennett as his co-driver. CORE Autosport switched from its Oreca-Gibson LMP2 car, which earned the team vice-champion honors in 2018, to the Nissan Onroak DPI. After winning two races and having five podium finishes in 2018, the team's best finish in 2019 was fourth at Daytona and the team failed to finish in the top five in the final eight races of the season.

CORE Autosport shut down after the 2019 season and Braun moved over to DragonSpeed for the 2020 24 Hours of Daytona. Sharing a car with Hanley, Harrison Newey and Hendrik Hedman, Braun and DragonSpeed won the LMP2 class at the 24 Hours of Daytona, Braun's second class victory in the famed event.

Numbers to Remember:
5,447: Days between Braun's most recent single-seater race at Mid-Ohio in Pro Mazda on May 21, 2005 and this year's Long Beach race.

3: Other 2020 IndyCar drivers were in that 2005 Pro Mazda race at Mid-Ohio: Marco Andretti, James Hinchcliffe and Graham Rahal. Raphael Matos won that race.

19: Victories between Grand-Am, American Le Mans Series, WeatherTech Sports Car Champion and the NASCAR Truck Series.

Predictions/Goals:
Braun is not confirmed for any races but he has been heavily rumored to be a potential driver for this program and this would be his long-awaited IndyCar shot. Cutting to the chase, Braun does have a ride in the GT World Challenge America series this year and GTWCA (that is a long acronym) will be at Virginia International Raceway when IndyCar is at Texas and Watkins Glen when IndyCar is at Laguna Seca. I do not know how deep Braun's commitment to GTWCA is but it could mean he will not be able to participate in those two races.

When you consider how long it has been since Braun has run a single-seater car and the team he could possibly be making his debut with the bar should be low. However, we have seen Braun find success in everything from a LMP2 car to a NASCAR Truck. That doesn't mean Braun is going to light the world on fire. That does not mean he is going to carry this team to podium finishes but I think he can get a grip on the car.

Braun was rumored to get an IndyCar test in 2018 with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing and RLLR was hoping to run him at a third car at the Sonoma finale and last summer the report was multiple IndyCar teams were calling Braun for a potential opportunity. If the teams are sold on this guy, someone who hasn't even tested an IndyCar ever, they are hoping to find a diamond in the rough and run the risk of being fooled.

DragonSpeed is not an established IndyCar team and whatever opportunity Braun gets, if he gets one race, he needs to be at least on par with Hanley. He cannot be running much slower than him and his race results cannot be much worse. If Braun is DragonSpeed's driver of choice for Indianapolis the obvious objective is qualify for the race.

The good news is Braun has plenty of oval experience from his days of running in NASCAR. It will have been eight years, eight months and 22 days between Braun's most recent oval race, a Truck race at Atlanta on September 2, 2011 and the 2020 Indianapolis 500, but that experience doesn't disappear. He may need a little time to knock off the rust but it will come in handy.

2019 Dreyer & Reinbold Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 19th (Indianapolis)
Poles: 0
Championship Finish: 27th (Sage Karam)

2020 Driver:

Sage Karam - #24 Wix Filters Chevrolet
For the fourth consecutive year, Karam and Dreyer & Reinbold Racing partnered for the Indianapolis 500 in 2019. This year saw Karam and D&R face one of its tougher challenges.

Karam was unable to secure a top-30 spot during Saturday qualifying, ending up 33rd on the day at 226.951 MPH, and it forced him to go out in the Last Row Shootout on Sunday against James Hinchcliffe, Max Chilton, Patricio O'Ward, Kyle Kaiser and Fernando Alonso. With Chilton and Hinchcliffe full-time entrants, O'Ward being the highlight touted rookie and Alonso carrying the McLaren name, Karam was thought to be one of the drivers most likely to end up on the wrong side of the bubble but Karam put down the fastest average at 227.740 MPH and slotted himself 31st on the grid.

In the race, Karam never really factored into competing for a top ten position, but after having retired from his previous four Indianapolis 500 starts and averaging a finish of 29.5 over those fours years it was important for Karam to get mileage and he did that. He completed 199 laps and finished 19th.

While Indianapolis was Dreyer & Reinbold Racing's final race of 2019, Karam got two more opportunities to participate during the 2019 IndyCar season. With Carlin rotating drivers, Karam got a shot at Toronto, his first road/street course race since 2015. He qualified 21st and mechanical issues plagued his race, putting him six laps down and finishing 21st. Karam got another outing with Carlin at Iowa and started 14th but had a half spin exiting turn four on lap 16. He clipped Felix Rosenqvist and the damage was a set back. From there, Karam tried to hang on but had a run-in with Takuma Sato on lap 187 and that ended Karam's race and effectively his 2019 season.

Numbers to Remember:
12: Karam's best finish on a street course was 12th in the second Belle Isle race in 2015.

18: Karam's best finish on a road course was 18th at NOLA Motorsports Park and Barber in 2015.

16.4: Average starting position in the five road/street course races where qualifying was held.

3: Top ten finishes in 19 starts.

1,702: Days between Karam's most recent top ten finish in an IndyCar race, third at Iowa on July 18, 2015, and the St. Petersburg season opener.

Predictions/Goals:
Get a career best finish on a road course and get at least one top ten finish.

This will be the seventh IndyCar season Karam has participated and yet he has basically participated in one season worth of races and a third of his starts have been at one track. He is the most experienced inexperienced driver on the grid.

The numbers are not good but it is a small sample size. He got one season with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2015 in what was not a full-time but still a majority effort and it was the first season of the aero kits. Did Karam make mistakes? Absolutely. Enough mistakes that he did not deserved a second opportunity? No. Did he show promise? Yes.

That promise was mostly seen on the ovals but when looking at his rookie season and comparing it to Josef Newgarden's rookie season it seems a little shortsighted that Karam still has not had an opportunity at a full season. I am not saying Karam would have matched Newgarden's level success but he probably could develop to a point where he was putting up respectable results.

This is going to be tough not only for Karam but for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. The team has not run a race that wasn't the Indianapolis 500 since the 2013 São Paulo race. When Dreyer & Reinbold Racing pulled back from its road and street course results were exceptional. It was fourth with Oriol Servià at São Paulo and Servià finished sixth at Long Beach. In 2012, after getting Chevrolet engines starting at the Indianapolis 500, Servià had a fifth place finish at Belle Isle, fifth at Toronto and seventh at Mid-Ohio.

History suggests D&R can put together a competitive car but it has been a long time and the team is paired with a driver who has made one road/street course start in the last four seasons.

As much as Karam needs to finish better than 18th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and get a top ten finish because it has been so long the biggest goal for Karam is to complete all the laps. If he finishes on the lead lap of every race then it at least a year where Karam does not have an accident being the most notable highlight of his season.

The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET


Monday, February 24, 2020

Musings From the Weekend: Splitting a Larger Pie

It was a good weekend for Team Penske and it has drivers leading the NASCAR Cup Series and Supercars championship. NASCAR's Truck Series had its 600th race and everyone wants to beat Kyle Busch. Toyota continues to be handcuffed in LMP1, a class that had only three entries in Austin. The Asian Le Mans Series concluded in Buriram. Robbie Buhl and billionaire hedge fund manage Robert Citrone are working on an IndyCar team that will participate in the two Indianapolis races in May and May is the topic of discussion today. Here is a run down of what got me thinking.

Splitting a Larger Pie
A little over a week ago, Roger Penske made his first bit of news now that he is in charge of IndyCar, Indianapolis Motor Speedway and the Indianapolis 500: A cash infusion.

Along with a number of facility improvements to bathrooms and adding video boards, the Indianapolis 500 purse will see $2 million injected to the pool of money and, with a purse set at over $15 million, the 2020 Indianapolis 500 will have the largest purse in the 104th editions of the race.

The purse has been a constant topic for the Indianapolis 500 for quite some time. While the Indianapolis 500 and IndyCar went through a low period during the split, and even in the years immediately after reunification, one idea to drum up more interest for the race was to increase the purse and make it something notable. Robin Miller has been saying for a long time the Indianapolis 500 winner should get $10 million and it should pay $1 million to start. There are plenty of things wrong with that. For starters, the purse would have to be at least tripled from what it will be in 2020.

While it is great for the Indianapolis 500 to see a purse increase, $2 million is not going to change a lot. That is not a lot of money and it is not going to get the purse much closer to Miller's dream. With $2 million it is not simple what to do with it. It is not enough that everyone will necessarily see an increase, and even if everyone does get a little more it will not be much more. It might help out a few teams and those teams are likely to be the ones already running at the front. If none of the money is going to the one-off teams than will it really make a difference?

There are a couple of ways this $2 million increase can be used:

The $2 million could be just added to what the race winner gets. If that $2 million is just going to be added to the race winner's total, than nothing has really changed. It is a great increase for the race winner but it has not lifted the payout for any of the finishers from second to 33rd.

The $2 million could be spread across the field. That sounds nice but that would only be an additional $60,606.06 deals to each finisher. The winner's cut would only go up to $2,730,135 and that would still only be the third largest winner's share in the history of the event but it would make sure every starter gets over $250,000 and that has not be a case for the last few years.

There could also be a complete shift in how the purse is distributed.

The Indianapolis 500 purse has been rather stagnant for the last 18 years. From 1982 to 2002, the purse went from just north of $2 million to over $10 million. From 2002 to 2007, the purse only went up $640,235. In 2008, the first Indianapolis 500 after reunification, the purse jumped to $14,406,580. It has not been higher since. That same year Scott Dixon became the first Indianapolis 500 to earn more than $2 million for victory when he took home $2,988,065.

Hélio Castroneves won the 2009 race and got $3,048,005 and 11 years later that is the only time the Indianapolis 500 winner has earned more than $3 million.

The last ten Indianapolis 500 winners all earned over $2 million but none of them earned more than Dixon or Castroneves in 2008 and 2009, and five of the winners last decade earned less than $2.5 million. The total pursed dipped to $12,020,065 in 2013 with Tony Kanaan only taking $2,353,355 as the race winner.

While we have seen salaries and winners' share go up in other sports, the Indianapolis 500 dipping in pay compared to 2009 does not look good when everyone else's pockets are getting deeper. It would look good for the Indianapolis 500 if the winner's cut took a big leap. Just adding the $2 million increase to the winner's share would accomplish that but there is a way the winner's share could get larger and see the payout floor increased by over 50%?

What if $5 million was set aside for the race winner and then split the remaining $10 million evenly over the other 32 entries? That means second to 32nd would each get $312,500. That would be great for the 13 entries that made less than $312,500 in the 2019 race. It would not be great for the 19 other entries that made more than $312,500 in 2019. It would be hard to justify 57% of the grid taking a pay decrease but an argument could be made it is for the greater good.

The race would have a tagline to sell. It would likely be the largest payout for a race winner in the world. I can't think of another race that pays $5 million to win. People care about the winner. No one really cares what second place makes. It would seem cruel to us on the inside who follow IndyCar regularly to know the runner-up was making over $400,000 less than what it paid the year before but future purse increases could be used to boast those positions in the top five and top ten.

The good news for IndyCar is it would have raised the floor and the ceiling simultaneously. The little guys would get richer and the richer would get richer. For one year, it would be a notable headline for the series, something to sell, hopefully something that would draw people in and be a marker of greater things to come for 2021 and onward.

Bringing this back to Earth, I do not think Roger Penske is looking to create a tagline. I do not think Roger Penske is going to cut the payout for 57% of the starters. I think Roger Penske is looking to boost the payout for all 33 starters on the grid. Perception is still important to Roger Penske and in year one of him in charge I think he will want to see the record for largest winner's share or at least get it back up to $3 million. From there, the remaining $12 million will be divided to make sure the 2020 runner-up gets more than the 2019 runner-up and the same is true for every position through 33rd.

Penske is a businessman and he knows if everyone is making more money everyone is going to be happy.

Champions From the Weekend
The #26 G-Drive Racing Aurus-Gibson of James French, Romain Rusinov and Léonard Hoogenboom clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP2 championship with a runner-up finish at Buriram.

The #2 Nielsen Racing Norma-Nissan of Colin Noble and Anthony Wells clinched the Asian Le Mans Series LMP3 championship with a runner-up finish at Buriram.

The #27 HubAuto Corsa Ferrari of Marcos Gomes, Tim Slade and Liam Talbot clinched the Asian Le Mans Series GT championship with a victory at Buriram.

Winners From the Weekend
You know about HubAuto Corsa but did you know...

The #45 Thunderhead Carlin Dallara-Gibson of Ben Barnicoat, Harry Tincknell and Jack Manchester won the 4 Hours of Buriram, the team's second consecutive victory. The #12 ACE1 Villorba Corse Ligier-Nissan of Alessandro Bressan, David Fumanelli and Gabriele Lancieri won in LMP3.

The #1 Rebellion R13 of Gustavo Menezes, Norman Nato and Bruno Senna won the FIA World Endurance Championship's Lone Star Le Mans from Austin, the team's second victory of the season. The #22 United Autosport Oreca-Gibson of Filipe Albuquerque, Philip Hanson and Paul di Resta won in the LMP2 class, the team's second consecutive victory. The #95 Aston Martin of Marco Sørenson and Nikki Thiim won in the GTE-Pro class, the team's second consecutive victory. It should be noted the #51 AF Corse Ferrari of James Calado and Alessandro Pier Guidi had its Shanghai victory reinstated. The #90 TF Sport Aston Martin of Jonathan Adam, Charlie Eastwood and Salih Yoluç won in the GTE-Am class, the team's third victory of the season.

Joey Logano won the NASCAR Cup race from Las Vegas. Chase Briscoe won the Grand National Series race. Kyle Busch won the Truck race.

Jamie Whincup and Scott McLaughlin split the Supercars races from Adelaide.

Eli Tomac won the Supercross Triple Crown race from Arlington with finishes of fifth, first and first. Ken Roczen won the first race of the night.

Coming Up This Weekend
World Superbike opens its season at Phillip Island.
Supercross will be in Atlanta.
Formula E is back in Marrakesh.
NASCAR will be at Fontana.


Friday, February 21, 2020

2020 IndyCar Team Preview: A.J. Foyt Racing

We are getting into the meat of the Chevrolet teams in this portion of the IndyCar team previews and this one will look at A.J. Foyt Racing.

After two seasons with all-Brazilian lineup, the 2020 season will look a little more diverse and see more drivers rotate through the team. Charlie Kimball has been brought in for a full-time seat replacing Matheus Leist. The #14 entry will be split between three drivers. Tony Kanaan will drive the five oval races in what is being celebrated as his final season in IndyCar. Sébastien Bourdais moves to the team and the four-time champion has four races scheduled for 2020. Rounding out the #14 lineup will be a rookie, Dalton Kellett.

2019 A.J. Foyt Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Gateway)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 15th (Tony Kanaan) 19th (Matheus Leist)

2020 Drivers:

Charlie Kimball - #4 Novo Nordisk Chevrolet
For the first time since 2010, Kimball did not have a full-time IndyCar ride but he was able to secure a five-race schedule with Carlin.

Kimball's season did start at St. Petersburg and it started on an encouraging note with an eighth place qualifying effort. The day was looking good with Kimball in the top ten but an unscheduled pit stop was required for repairs, knocking him off the lead lap. His next appearance was the Indianapolis 500 and he was the only Carlin car in the race. He started 20th but improved throughout the race and was in the top ten when he was collected in the Graham Rahal-Sébastien Bourdais incident. The damage put Kimball four laps down and he was classified in 25th. Texas made it three consecutive mechanical issues, as a wheel bearing failure ended Kimball's race after 86 laps.

The next race was Pocono and Kimball finished 10th after avoiding all the accidents and the rain. Due to a driver shuffle after Max Chilton decided to step away from ovals and Patricio O'Ward had Red Bull junior team responsibilities in Japan, Kimball added Gateway and Portland to his schedule. Gateway was a forgettable 15th place finish but he went from 21st to tenth at Portland. He went from 20th to 15th in the season finale at Laguna Seca.

Numbers to Remember:
6.333: Average number of top ten finishes in a season.

6: Seasons with at least one top five finish in a nine-year career.

96: Starts since Kimball's only IndyCar victory at Mid-Ohio in 2013

14.375: Average championship finish in Kimball's eight full seasons in IndyCar.

Predictions/Goals:
A lot of races where Kimball qualifies somewhere between 16th and 20th but ends up finishing somewhere between tenth and 13th.

That is kind of Kimball's M.O. In his last eight seasons in IndyCar his average finish has been better than in average starting position. In five of those seasons his average finish was better by at least two positions and in four of those five seasons it was better by at least three positions.

Foyt's cars were horrible at qualifying last year and we did not see many races where one car went from 20th to 11th. It was mostly start 20th and finish 15th or start 22nd and finish 18th. Kimball will have to get better starting positions. There is a big difference starting 17th versus 21st and those four spots could mean three or four more top ten finishes.

Kimball is a smart driver. He might not light up qualifying but he will keep it clean in a race and make sure the car is still running at the checkered flag while making sure the car moves up the running order. He is not going to turn the team into a constant podium contender but he should improve the finishes and at least get the ball rolling in the right direction.

Foyt needs one season where it is not constantly languishing at the back. It cannot be the team where we pencil its cars on one of the final two rows on the grid and then forget about it. It needs to at least be in the mix and that means pushing to advance from the first round of road/street course qualifying and maybe once in a while actually advancing.

I think better days are ahead for this team with Kimball. That does not mean he is going to be in the top ten of the championship. In fact, I think if Kimball can get back to 15th in the championship but has six to eight top ten finishes, has an average starting position below 18.0 and advances from the first round of qualifying at least once or twice that is something the team can be proud about. It would be an incremental gain but one that is desperately needed.

Tony Kanaan - #14 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet
The 2019 season was another difficult year for IndyCar's ironman.

After not picking up a top ten finish in the final five races of 2018, Kanaan's 2019 season started with five consecutive finishes outside the top ten and he finished off the lead lap in four of those five races. Cautions almost went his way at St. Petersburg but poor pit stops cost him a shot at a top ten finish. He was 12th at Austin, 18th at Barber, brought out a red flag in qualifying at Long Beach and that put him behind the eight ball for the race, and he qualified 24th and finished 20th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis.

Things improved at the Indianapolis 500, where Kanaan qualified 16th and pulled out a ninth place finish. Things took a downturn at Belle Isle with a 15th in race one and a second race that didn't even make it through turn three on lap one. Texas was not the homecoming A.J. Foyt Racing was hoping for with Kanaan in 16th.

Kanaan would finish off the lead lap in the next four races at Road America, Toronto, Iowa and Mid-Ohio but he was able to pick up a tenth place finish at Iowa. He was eighth at Pocono and his best race was Gateway after holding out as long as he could for his final pit stop. The caution came out before Kanaan could stop, this cycled him from being 14th or 15th to 2nd and ended up third at the checkered flag. His season ended with 12th at Portland and 16th at Laguna Seca.

Numbers to Remember:
317: Consecutive starts.

377: Career starts, 30 starts behind Mario Andretti for the all-time record.

6,846: Days between the 2001 Belle Isle CART race, the last IndyCar race Kanaan missed, and the 2020 St. Petersburg season opener. That is 18 years, eight months and 27 days.

Predictions/Goals:
Tears but in a good way.

This is it for Tony Kanaan's IndyCar career. Five races: Indianapolis, Texas, Richmond, Iowa and Gateway.

It feels right and yet it still feels too soon.

Let's be honest with ourselves, we should not be expecting some type of fairy tale ending. We should be hopeful of a respectful finish to Kanaan's career. Perhaps h gets another top ten finish at Indianapolis and another top ten finish at Texas, Iowa and/or Gateway but we are likely not going to see Kanaan win his second Indianapolis 500. We are not going to see Kanaan close his career with five top five finishes. We are not going to see him win at Richmond or end his career with a victory at Gateway. It is just not likely to happen.

In the four returning races, Kanaan had finishes of ninth at Indianapolis, 16th at Texas, tenth at Iowa and third at Gateway. The third is a little misleading because of the nature of that finish with the timely caution but his average finish was 9.5. At Richmond, he won there in 2008, had four top five finishes in seven starts and averaged a finish of 8.3.

I think we would all be happy if Kanaan gets two or three top ten finishes. He didn't lead a lap in 2019, led 20 laps in 2018, 55 laps in 2017 and 37 laps in 2016. We shouldn't think Kanaan will have one standout race but we should hope Kanaan gets to run every lap, take the checkered flag and get out of the car to applause.

Sébastien Bourdais - #14 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet
After winning at St. Petersburg the previous two years it was going to be difficult for Bourdais to keep up that form. The bad news for him is an engine failure ended any hope of a three-peat after 11 laps.

Things were not looking good at Austin and Bourdais qualified 17th but the car got better in the race and the only caution for Felix Rosenqvist's accident lifted him further up the order only for the race to end in a fifth place effort. The momentum of Texas carried over to Barber, where he qualified fifth and finished third.

After two 11th-place finishes at Long Beach and the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Bourdais had one of his best Indianapolis 500 starts. He was in contention for a top five finish but contact with Graham Rahal ended that run in turn three and with less than 25 laps to the checkered flag. Things got better at Belle Isle with finishes of 11th and ninth and spring ended with an eighth place finish at Texas.

Bourdais was outside the top ten for most of the day at Road America and was 12th. He was eighth at Toronto, went from 21st to ninth at Iowa and contact with Colton Herta kept Bourdais from getting a top ten at Mid-Ohio but he still charged from behind to finish 11th.

A seventh place finish followed at Pocono and Gateway was his most encouraging race. Bourdais started second but spun exiting turn four while in the top five. He was ninth at Portland and he was fighting a sore neck the entire Laguna Seca weekend and nearly was taken out of the car but he ran the entire weekend, qualified 19th and through pain drove to a seventh place finish.

Numbers to Remember:
2: Bourdais could become the second Frenchman to drive for A.J. Foyt Racing. Frank Perera ran the 2008 finale at Chicagoland for Foyt and finished 15th.

7: Consecutive seasons with a podium finish.

8.5714: Average number of top ten finishes in a season.

5.5714: Average number of top five finishes in a season.

13: Yeas since Bourdais had more than five top five finishes in a season when he had ten top five finishes in the 2007 Champ Car season.

Predictions/Goals:
Get strong enough results to remind every team what they are missing.

The combination of Kimball, Kanaan and Bourdais is one of the best Foyt has ever had. These are proven drivers and we know what they are capable of. Bourdais lost his ride at Dale Coyne Racing but he hasn't lost a step. He was still the top driver in that team last year and finished third at Barber. This is a much difference scenario for Bourdais but he should be able to pick the team up and get much better results.

We are hoping Kimball can get Foyt out of the first round of qualifying. Bourdais should get this team out of the first round of qualifying. Bourdais isn't the magic fix and take the team from 20th on the grid into the Fast Six but things should be better and there should be more competitive races.

Bourdais' schedule will be St. Petersburg, Barber, Long Beach and Portland and while that is better than nothing it seems like he would have been a great third option for the team for the Indianapolis 500. He is only going to get four cracks at the 2020 IndyCar season and he might have two or three really strong races, races that make Foyt really contemplate Bourdais getting a full-time opportunity in 2021. A limited number of races does make it harder to standout. One race with a mechanical failure can let all the air out of the balloon.

All Bourdais can do is the best he can and leave an impression on people. He didn't lose his ride at Coyne because of ability. He can still be competitive and I think this is a great chance to show it.

Dalton Kellett - #14 A.J. Foyt Racing Chevrolet
Kellett ran his fourth full season in Indy Lights in 2019 and after three years with Andretti Autosport the Canadian made a move to Juncos Racing.

The season started with a finish off the lead lap at St. Petersburg in tenth and he was eighth in the second race. His next four finishes between Austin and Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course were ninth, ninth, eighth and seventh. He started fourth for the Freedom 100 and he finished fifth, his fourth consecutive top five finish in the event.

At Road America, he had finishes of eighth and seventh with an eighth in the first Toronto race following. In the second Toronto race, Kellett started fourth and with help from some attrition he ended up on the podium in third place.

Mid-Ohio would see finishes of seventh and eighth with a sixth at Gateway. The season would end with finishes of fifth and sixth at Portland and a pair of sixth place finishes at Laguna Seca.

Numbers to Remember:
126: Road to Indy starts from 2012 to 2019.

0: Road to Indy victories.

8: Road to Indy podium finishes.

16: Road to Indy top five finishes.

Predictions/Goals:
Not be as bad as Matheus Leist.

Kellett's season will begin at Austin, he will run the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the Indianapolis 500 in a third entry for Foyt. He will continue at Belle Isle, Road America, Toronto, Mid-Ohio and Laguna Seca.

Kellett's track record is not great. Is he a hazard? No. He is not the quickest driver but in his Road to Indy career he was never a dangerous driver. He was not making boneheaded mistake after boneheaded mistake. With all that said, he was still far from being competitive outside of a few Freedom 100s.

Foyt saw Leist have one good year in Indy Lights where he won the Freedom 100, had two other victories but had a handful of poor results on street courses and he was not ready for IndyCar but that didn't stop Foyt from picking a peach that was not yet ripe. Kellett has a lot of junior series experience and he might hold his own in an IndyCar but nothing from his Road to Indy career suggests he will be a competitive IndyCar driver.

There were eight full-time drivers in Indy Lights in 2019. Kellett was seventh of those eight drivers. The average Indy Lights grid size in 2019 was 9.0555 and Kellett's average finish was 7.0.

I don't think this will be a case where Kellett is a danger on track but I do not think he is going to be fighting for many top fifteen finishes. I think he will be just as bad if not worse than Leist. These aren't a few appearances; this will be a 13-race schedule for Kellett. The numbers are going to be comparable. Other than not running the other four ovals he is going to run every track and we are going to have a clear idea where he stands.

It is hard to see Kellett jumping into the car and being able to rub elbows with the veteran drivers on the IndyCar grid when he was not even close to the other rookies in the class of 2020.

The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET


Wednesday, February 19, 2020

2020 IndyCar Team Preview: Dale Coyne Racing

The seventh 2020 IndyCar team preview is Dale Coyne Racing and the team is shaking it up.

After having three seasons with Sébastien Bourdais leading the charge the team has let the Frenchman go and sophomore Santino Ferrucci will inherit the team leader role. His new teammate comes from Japan and had years of experience in Europe. Dale Coyne Racing tested this driver last year at Mid-Ohio and he put up impressive speeds, faster than Felipe Nasr, who was testing with Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

The team not only experienced a driver change. Engineers Craig Hampson and Michael Cannon have left the team to join Arrow McLaren SP and Chip Ganassi Racing respectively.

2019 Dale Coyne Racing Review
Wins: 0
Best Finish: 3rd (Barber)
Poles: 0
Championship Finishes: 11th (Sébastien Bourdais), 13th (Santino Ferrucci)

2020 Drivers:

Santino Ferrucci - #18 SealMasters Honda
After a handful of cameo appearances in 2018, Ferrucci joined the IndyCar cast in 2019 and his season started with an off in qualifying, dropping him to 23rd on the grid at St. Petersburg but he kept in on the road in the race and with a few passes and some help from cautions he ended up ninth.

At Austin, he qualified 11th but some damage dropped him to 20th. He qualified 10th at Barber but dropped to 15th. He went off in turn one at Long Beach, stalled the car, lost two laps and ended up 21st. In changing conditions in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis he ended up tenth.

Ferrucci started 23rd for his first Indianapolis 500 and moved forward during the race. The final accident took out five cars and Ferrucci made a save in grass to avoid the accident. This put him in contention for a top ten result and he ended up seventh, the 2019 Indianapolis 500 rookie of the year. He was 19th in the first Belle Isle race and strategy in the second race led him to lead 20 laps but he finished tenth. Texas was going to be another top ten finish but with attrition and restarts he ended up finishing fourth.

The team attempted a four-stop race at Road America and it did not work out, leading to a 19th place finish, one-lap down. An 11th at Toronto followed but he stood out at Iowa with aggressive moves early. However, those early moves did not translate to a result, he took the checkered flag in 12th. Another 12th followed at Mid-Ohio. Pococno saw Ferrucci jump into the top ten early and he worked his way to another fourth place finish.

At Gateway, Ferrucci started sixth and went to the front, leading a race-high 97 laps. Victory escaped him when the final caution mixed up the field but he made a charge back up to fourth. His season ended with electrical issues ending his race at Portland and an accident at Laguna Seca.

Numbers to Remember:
6.2: Ferrucci's average finish in oval races in 2019.

15.5833: Ferrucci's average finish on road and street courses in 2019.

20.64: Points per race in 2019.

2,037: Laps completed in 2019. The only drivers to complete more were Simon Pagenaud and Josef Newgarden. The only other driver to complete over 2,000 laps was Tony Kanaan.

97.4: Percentage of laps completed in 2019

Predictions/Goals:
Improve on road and street courses.

As much as Ferrucci was applauded for his oval prowess off the bat, his road and street course form left little to be desired. He did have three top ten finishes on road and street courses but his best finish was ninth at St. Petersburg. He made it out of the first round of qualifying on only three occasions. He started outside the top fifteen on five occasions on road and street courses and he had only two top ten starts over the course of the entire season. All in all, Sébastien Bourdais won the intrateam battle 11-6 in the 17 races and Bourdais won the qualifying battle 11-5.

When 70% of the races are road and street courses you are going to have to get some top ten and top five finishes in those races if you want a great championship finish. After Gateway, everyone had Ferrucci locked in for rookie of the year. He was ninth in the championship, top rookie, two points ahead of Felix Rosenqvist and 44 points ahead of Colton Herta in 14th. The season ended with Rosenqvist in sixth, Herta in seventh and Ferrucci 74 points behind Rosenqvist and 69 points off Herta.

His average finish on road and street courses has to improve by at least five positions. He needs to get at least five top ten finishes on road and street courses and maybe pull out a top five finish. His average starting position has to improve by at least three spots as well from 15.375.

As for ovals, I think his results are a little skewed. While he deserves all the credit for not tearing up equipment and making it through the mess, I am not sure he will be as fortunate the second time around. Three top ten finishes would be a good showing in his second year on ovals.

DCR lost Hampson, who brought the oval results with him when he came in 2017. Coyne is going to lose all its oval pace in 2019 just because Hampson is gone but it is going to take a step back. Add to it Ferrucci has lost Cannon as his lead engineer and Ferrucci no longer has Bourdais to lean on, and he is starting all over in year two. He fell into a good groove for his rookie season. His sophomore season has seen a complete flip of all the pieces around him.

This is going to be a big year for Ferrucci. He has to show he can handle the switch and he cannot let frustration get the best of him. This season is going to be a lot different from 2019 and we are going to get a clearer picture of who Ferrucci come September.

Álex Palou - #55 Dale Coyne Racing w/ Team Goh Honda
Palou spent the 2019 season in Japan in the Super Formula championship and in the GT300 category in the Super GT championship.

His Super Formula campaign began with a retirement at Suzuka but he picked up fastest lap. He rebounded with a sixth at Autopolis after starting 15th but a 13th place finish followed at Sportsland SUGO after qualifying eighth.

At Fuji, Palou took pole position and in a race in a torrential downpour, he drove a flawless race to take his first victory in the series, 13 seconds clear of Sho Tsuboi. Another pole position came at Motegi but Ryō Hirakawa overtook him for the lead just before halfway through the race. Palou would lose two positions during the pit cycle and finish fourth.

He went from eighth to fourth in the penultimate race of the season at Okayama and it kept him alive for the championship at the Suzuka season finale. He was third in the championship on 25 points, four off of championship leader Naoki Yamamoto. The weekend started with Palou picking up his third pole position of the season with Yamamoto starting fifth and other championship rival Nick Cassidy in sixth. Palou was the top of the championship runners for much of the race but a loose cooling wire wrapped around the rear suspension and forced an extra pit stop, ending his championship hopes.

In Super GT, Palou completed for McLaren Customer Racing Team, which Team Goh operated. Seija Ara, 2004 24 Hours of Le Mans winner, was his co-driver. The season started with finishes of 19th, 14th and 13th at Okayama, Fuji and Suzuka. The team skipped the Buriram round and retired from the second Fuji race. The pairing picked up a runner-up finish at Autopolis but finished the season with 12th at Sportsland SUGO but won pole position at Motegi and finished seventh.

Numbers to Remember:
3: Palou was third in the 2019 Super Formula Championship with 26 points, one victory at Fuji and ten points off the champion Nick Cassidy.

3: Palou had three pole positions in Super Formula in 2019, the only driver with multiple pole positions.

36: Palou made 36 starts in the GP3 Series and his one victory cane in the 2015 season finale at Abu Dhabi, where Antonio Fuoco was second and Esteban Ocon was third.

1: Palou had raced at one track on the 2020 IndyCar schedule. He ran at Austin in the 2017 World Series Formula V8 3.5 Series and he had finishes of finish and second. He started on pole position for the second race.

Predictions/Goals:
Rookie of the year is always the goal for rookies but I think for Palou he should be shooting for at least splitting the two other rookies from Indy Lights, Oliver Askew and Rinus VeeKay, and shoot for being the best at Dale Coyne Racing.

Palau is coming over with inspiring results in Japan and a memorable test with Coyne at Mid-Ohio, where he was reportedly six-tenths faster than Felipe Nasr, who was driving for Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

Everything but Austin is going to be new for Palou. We do not know how he will adapt to ovals but h seemed to enjoy the rookie test at Texas last week. Craig Hampson is gone. Mike Cannon is gone. This is a very different team than the one he tested with last summer. His results may surprise him after how well things went when he first ran with the team.

While Palou was third as a rookie in Super Formula, he did spend a year in Japanese Formula Three. He knew the tracks. He was driving for Nakajima Racing, whose owner is former Formula One driver Satoru Nakajima, but it was a team that had not had great results in recent seasons.

I think Palou could be the shocker and not only be rookie of the year but be top Dale Coyne Racing driver and be 11th to 14th in the championship. I think there are going to be rough days and it will come down to whether or not Palou loses confidence. Based on what he has done in Japan this is not someone who is going to be hanging at the bottom of the time sheets.

This could be a case where Palou gets the better results on the road and street courses and his lack of oval experience will lead to the two DCR drivers being almost level in the championship. Palou's goal should be to be the top DCR finishers more than his teammate and get at least seven top ten finishes.

The 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season opens on Sunday March 15th with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. NBCSN's coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET