Friday, September 4, 2020

2019-20 Formula E Season Review

The 2019-20 Formula E season wrapped up just a little over a month ago in the German capital of Berlin. However, a busy month of August has knocked this review back a few weeks. That delay has provided a little extra time to look back and a little more time to look ahead for what is to come for the all-electric series. 

This year's championship, like every other championship, saw a significant shift from the original planned schedule due to the covid-19 pandemic. Formula E was one of the few series already in the middle of its seasons when the pandemic began and halted all sports for months. 

While the series was not able to run notable events in Monaco and Brooklyn, and was not able to return to London nor visit Seoul or Jakarta for the first time, it was able to piece together an 11-round championship, which saw eight different race winners from six different teams. Three of the race winners were first-timers and one of the teams, a historic manufacture, got its maiden Formula E victory. 

We will go team-by-team, looking at how each driver did in comparison to preseason expectations and seeing how wrong I was nearly ten months ago.

DS Techeetah - 244 points
António Félix da Costa: #13 DS E-TENSE FE20 (1st - 158 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: I think things should be better for da Costa than 2018-19. Going into last season, I thought da Costa was one of the championship favorites with BMW i Andretti program and that looked good for the first race and for about 80% of the second race. Then the BMW program was flat until the finale in Brooklyn. I think we are going to see a better season from da Costa, possibly multiple victories and more top five finishes.

How wrong was it: We did see a better season from da Costa. We saw a three-victory, six-podium, 158-point championship season. Considering Techeetah had won the last two championships with Jean-Éric Vergne, da Costa was in a good situation, but no one could have expected it would have been this good. Da Costa wasted no time getting to work after the restart. He won the first two races from Berlin and a fourth and second in the third and fourth Berlin races locked him up the title. 

Jean-Éric Vergne: #25 DS E-TENSE FE20 (3rd - 86 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Vergne has won the last two championship. Three consecutive titles in any championship is a difficult task. He is going to be in the mix. I know testing had him 11th overall in Valencia but da Costa was fourth. He is going to win multiple races, some of which it will feel like he doesn't deserve and be in the top five of the championship.

How wrong was it: Vergne's only win was the fourth Berlin race, but he was third in the championship with 86 points. Other than da Costa, no one had a great season. Vergne's only two podium finishes were a third in Marrakesh and a third in the third Berlin race. It was not a bad season, but far from a great season. 

Nissan e. dams - 167 points
Oliver Rowland: #22 Nissan IM02 (5th - 83 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: The Nissan program was hit or miss at the start of last season and Rowland's up and down results were something his veteran teammate Sébastien Buemi also had to battle. He was also a late addition to the grid. I think Rowland results are slightly better than last year. He could increase his number of podium finishes but a victory could be tough to come by. It would not be impossible but I would only expect one victory for Rowland.

How wrong was it: Rowland's won the penultimate race of the season in Berlin and he went from tenth on 71 points to fifth on 83 points. He scored points in eight of 11 races. It was a good season for Rowland. He was a strong all year and was equal to his senior teammate Sébastien Buemi all year.

Sébastien Buemi: #23 Nissan IM02 (4th - 84 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Buemi has finished in the top two of the championship in four of five seasons and his worst championship result is fourth. While last season didn't start well, it ended very strong and Buemi was sixth fastest in testing. I think he will be back in the championship fight immediately with a few victories.

How wrong was it: Buemi did not win a race, and really wasn't in the championship fight, but again finished in the top four of the championship. He has never finished worse than fourth in the Formula E championship. He had four podium finishes, only the champion da Costa had more. It is going to be disappointing not to win and not to be in the fight, but Nissan was strong again and a better start to the season could see Buemi back in the hunt.

Mercedes-Benz EQ Formula E Team - 147 points
Stoffel Vandoorne: #5 Mercedes-Benz EQ Silver Arrows 01 (2nd - 87 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Somewhat better than 2018-19. Mercedes-Benz was 20th in testing and there is no reason to be hopeful other than it is one thing for HWA Racelab to be at the back. It is another if it is Mercedes-Benz. Vandoorne had encouraging days last season. Top ten might be out of reach but breaking into the top 12 would be a start.

How wrong was it: Vandoorne leaped to vice-champion, up 14 spots and 52 points from the previous season. He opened with a pair of third in Saudi Arabia and ended with a victory in the Berlin finale. The Mercedes-Benz was a decent car. Four points covered second to fifth and ten points covered second to sixth. Any of those positions would have been a fair showing for Vandoorne.

Nyck de Vries: #17 Mercedes-Benz EQ Silver Arrows 01 (11th - 60 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: This is a little different for de Vries. He was 21st in testing and while he has adapted to sports cars quickly, this is a tad different. I think he has to outperform the nine points Gary Paffett scored last season.

How wrong was it: De Vries did outperform Gary Paffett's nine points, and he rounded out the season with a runner-up position and a Mercedes-Benz 1-2. The points finishes were a little too choppy. He scored points in only five of 13 races and never finished in the points in successive races. It was a good start to his Formula E career.

Envision Virgin Racing - 121 points
Sam Bird: #2 Audi e-Tron FE06 (10th - 63 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Bird was 13th in testing; four spots better than last season's pre-season test. Ninth is not really indicative of how Bird did in 2018-19. If he kept his victory at Hong Kong, he would have been sixth, two points outside the top five. Formula E will be Bird's focus in 2019-20. He is out of AF Corse's FIA World Endurance Championship program. I expect Bird to get back to the top of the championship.

How wrong was it: Bird opened the season with a victory, but that was it. The results weren't there and he was tenth in the championship. I think Bird has gone as far as he could go with Virgin and he will be moving to Jaguar for next season. He is still one of the best in the series.

Robin Frijns: #4 Audi e-Tron FE06 (12th - 58 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Even though Bird was negatively affected in the championship by the Hong Kong result, Frijns was giving him a run for his money at Virgin Racing. Frijns is a legitimate threat to Bird and the championship. It could be a case of Virgin Racing cars stealing points from each other. Both cars will be fighting for the top five in the championship.

How wrong was it: Neither Virgin car was fighting for the top five, rather both were fighting for the top ten. Frijns did have a pair of runner-up finishes in Berlin, but he failed to score points in six races and failed to start another. That is too many points left on the table.

BMW i Andretti Motorsport - 118 points
Alexander Sims: #27 BMW IFE.20 (13th - 49 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Sims was a slight disappointment compared to his testing results last year. I think things will get better but only because of how low the bar was set. He should challenge for top ten in the championship. He was seventh in testing and his teammate was fastest.

How wrong was it: Sims missed out on the top ten by 14 points. He earned two pole positions to start the year in Saudi Arabia and won the second race, but like the 2018-19 season, the results dropped off. He had one other top five finish all season and he ended with just three points from the final six races in Berlin.

Maximilian Günther: #28 BMW IFE.20 (9th - 69 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: The results of 2018-19 tell you that there is no reason Günther to think Günther deserved this type of promotion but he has gotten it and he went right to the top of the charts in testing. He is definitely going to do better than last year but it is hard to believe he will immediately be a championship contender. He should be fighting for tenth in the championship at worst.

How wrong was it: This was better than expected but still disappointing because Günther won two races and finished second in Marrakesh. The problem is he only won two races and finished second in Marrakesh. He had three retirements and was outside the points in eight races. He over-achieved and underperformed simultaneously. Not easy to do but disappointing either way.

Audi Sport ABT Schaeffler - 114 points
Lucas di Grassi: #11 Audi e-Tron FE06 (6th - 77 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Testing was not great for di Grassi, as he was 17th overall, and the last two seasons have seen him and the Audi team get off to slow starts only to recover and finish in the top three of the championship. Di Grassi has been in the top three of the championship in every Formula E season. He has won a race in every Formula E season and he has won multiple races in the last four seasons. He could keep up his winning ways and still end up with the worst championship finish of his career and I think that is bound to happen.

How wrong was it: Di Grassi did not win a race and he suffered his worst championship finish. He was only on two podiums but he finished in the points in nine of 11 races. It was a good season, a textbook good season. 

Daniel Abt: #66 Audi e-Tron FE06 (21st - 8 points/First five races)
What to expect in 2019-20: Abt was a spot better than his teammate during testing. He has proven to be a consistent points scorer but he does not get the same level of finishes as his teammate. If I think di Grassi is going to take a slight step back in 2019-20 then I have to think Abt will as well. He may still score points at the same rate but ninth and tenth place do not pay that much.

How wrong was it: Abt had one points finish, sixth in the second Saudi Arabia race. Then he was fired during the hiatus because of having a professional sim racer fill-in for a Formula E virtual event and this deception led Audi to fire the driver. Don't worry, Abt landed on his feet.

René Rast: #66 Audi e-Tron FE06 (15th - 29 points/Final six races)
What to expect in 2019-20: Not applicable. Midseason replacement.

How wrong was it: Rast came in and scored nearly five times the number of points Abt had with Audi. Rast was third and fourth in the final two races. Not bad for a driver who had not raced a single-seater car since 2004 Formula BMW ADAC.

Panasonic Jaguar Racing - 81 points
Mitch Evans: #20 Jaguar I-Type 4 (7th - 71 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Evans has carried the Jaguar Racing program since it got into Formula E and I do not expect that to stop. He was fifth in testing and I think any championship hopes are depended on results early. He scored points in the first seven races last season but only one of those was a podium and only one other of those results was a top five. I think he is the sleeper.

How wrong was it: Evans did win in Mexico City and was third in Santiago, but those were his only top five finishes all season. He did score points in seven of 11 races. It was a slight step back from last year compared to 2018-19, but Evans led the way and scored Jaguar respectable results.

James Calado: #51 Jaguar I-Type 4 (19th - 10 points/First nine races)
What to expect in 2019-20: This is Calado's first time in a single-seater car since the 2013 GP2 season. It is going to be a learning experience as he has been in GT cars for the last five-plus years. I think his goal should be to score more points than what Nelson Piquet, Jr. and Alex Lynn combined for in this car last season and that was 11 points. That should be an easy get but he should be pushing to be in the top half of the championship, especially if Evans is going to be in the thick of it at the front.

How wrong was it: Calado was not in the top half of the championship. He did lose two points because he was disqualified for using too much energy in Mexico City. He missed the final two races due to FIA World Endurance Championship commitments. 

Tom Blomqvist: #51 Jaguar I-Type 4 (26th - 0 points/Final two races)
What to expect in 2019-20: Not applicable. Midseason replacement.

How wrong was it: Blomqvist filled in for the final two races and finished 12th and 17th, his first Formula E races in over two years at Andretti. 

TAG Heuer Porsche Formula E Team - 79 points
Neel Jani: #18 Porsche 99X Electric (20th - 8 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Jani was 22nd in testing. Porsche will have some growing pains and it will be interesting to see Porsche and Mercedes-Benz battle toward the back of the field. The goal should be to get at least one car ahead of both Mercedes-Benz entries or split them. It will be a fight 15th to 20th for Jani.

How wrong was it: Jani was 20th and his only points scored was from a sixth-place finish in the penultimate race of the season. 

André Lotterer: #36 Porsche 99X Electric (8th - 71 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Lotterer's first two Formula E seasons have been encouraging and it is unfortunate he has not won a race yet. He was 19th in testing. I think he could get a few inspiring results but it will be tough for him to challenge for the top fifteen.

How wrong was it: Lotterer had no problem cracking the top fifteen, in fact, he was eighth in the championship and had a runner-up finish in the first Saudi Arabia race and first Berlin race. He scored points in seven races and had a pole position in Mexico City. Victory alludes Lotterer in Formula E, but he is there.

Mahindra Racing - 49 points
Jérôme d'Ambrosio: #64 Mahindra M5Electro (16th - 19 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: D'Ambrosio has had a good Formula E career but no better or worse than good. Some races he is competitive and others he is not really in the mix. One race is on the podium and the next he is 14th. Mahindra was one of three teams to put both cars in the top ten overall in testing. I think d'Ambrosio could be slightly better than last year but we not really notice it.

How wrong was it: d'Ambrosio was worse than 2018-19, finishing five positions worse and scoring 48 fewer points. For only the second time in his Formula E career, he did not finish on the podium. 

Pascal Wehrlein: #94 Mahindra M5Electro (18th - 14 points/First five races)
What to expect in 2019-20: Wehrlein should jump ahead of d'Ambrosio this season. He scored points in more races than d'Ambrosio last season and was nine points back and missed a round. Wehrlein was second overall in testing. I think there could be one or two races where Wehrlein is competing for a race victory but I am not sure the team can put together a title push for the entire season.

How wrong was it: Wehrlein was fourth and ninth in Santiago and Mexico City, but outside of that he was not all that close to victory, and he left the team during the hiatus. He will be with Porsche next year.

Alex Lynn: #94 Mahindra M5Electro (17th - 16 points/Final six races)
What to expect in 2019-20: Not applicable. Midseason replacement.

How wrong was it: Lynn scored points in the final three races with finishes of ninth, fifth and eighth. This was the second consecutive season Lynn was a midseason replacement and, on both occasions, he outscored the driver he was replacing. 

ROKiT Venturi Racing - 44 points
Felipe Massa: #19 Mercedes-Benz EQ Silver Arrows 01 (22nd - 3 points)
What to expect in 2019-20:  More of the same. Massa was 12th in testing. The team has made the switch from its own powertrain to the new Mercedes-Benz powertrain. I think Massa could finish a few spots better in the championship but breaking into the top ten is asking a lot.

How wrong was it: Massa took a step back, down seven spots in the championship, and went from scoring 36 points with his best finish being third to scoring three points with his best finish being ninth. 

Edoardo Mortara: #48 Mercedes-Benz EQ Silver Arrows 01 (14th - 41 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Same as Massa, more of the same. Mortara scored an unexpected and rather fortunate victory last year. I think him and Massa will be together on the racetrack quite a bit.

How wrong was it: I did expect more of the same for Mortara and he was 14th last year and 14th this year. The one difference is Mortara did not score all his points in three races with finishes of fourth, third and first. This year, Mortara was in the points in seven of 11 races and his best finish was fourth.

GEOX Dragon Racing - 2 points
Brendon Hartley: #6 Penske EV-4 (23rd - 2 points/First five races)
What to expect in 2019-20: I think Hartley will have good days but also struggle because that is kind of what Dragon Racing is known for. The team had two really good seasons in Formula E, including second in the Teams' Championship in the inaugural season but in the last three seasons the team has one podium finish and has finished eighth, ninth and tenth in the Teams' Championship. I think Hartley could be in the top five one race and then 15th the next.

How wrong was it: Hartley's best finish was ninth, he left the team during the hiatus and he was 23rd in the championship.

Nico Müller: #7 Penske EV-4 (25th - 0 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Müller gave the team some hope in testing after ending up third but Hartley was 14th. This is Müller's first time in a single-seater since Formula Renault 3.5 in 2013. I think one Dragon car could sneak into the top ten in the championship but not both and no better than tenth for that entry.

How wrong was it: Neither Dragon car made the top ten in the championship. Müller's best finish was 12th.

Sérgio Sette Câmara: #6 Penske EV-4 (27th - 0 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: Not applicable. Midseason replacement.

How wrong was it: Câmara's best finish in the final six races was 15th. He was disqualified on debut after using too much engird while finishing 20th.

NIO 333 FE Team - 0 points
Oliver Turvey: #3 NIO FE-005 (24th - 0 points)
What to expect in 2019-20: NIO was bottom of the timesheet at Valencia. Because it is Formula E, I think Turvey could score a few points but it will be difficult for him to match his seven points from last season.

How wrong was it: God bless Oliver Turvey for sticking with this abomination of a team. No points. His best finish was 11th in Santiago. He did finish eighth in the second Saudi Arabia race, and was promoted to sixth after a few other time penalties to other drivers, but Turvey was disqualified from this race for using too much energy. 

Ma Qinghua: #33 NIO FE-005 (28th - 0 points/First five races)
What to expect in 2019-20: Ma Qinghua returns to Formula E for the first time since the 2018 season finale in Brooklyn. In nine Formula E starts over three seasons; he has scored zero points with his best finish being 11th in the first London race in 2016. He was slowest in testing. He might get a few points but don't expect double figures.

How wrong was it: Qinghau's best finish was sixth and he missed the final six races, partially because of travel restrictions.

Daniel Abt: #33 NIO FE-005 (21st - 6 points/Final six races, 0 points with NIO)
What to expect in 2019-20: See Audi section.

How wrong was it: Abt landed on his feet in the worst car and kept his streak of starting every Formula E race alive. However, no points and his best finish was 15th. He did win Fan Boost for every Berlin race, so that is something. 

NIO did make Formula E history becoming the first team to fail to score a point in a season. TrulliGP did withdraw from the 2015-16 season after two rounds but did not compete in either because the car did not pass scrutineering. 

Conclusion
All things considered, this was a good season for Formula E. 

I have already applauded the series for how it ended its 2019-20 season. The Berlin week of races worked and it was nice to try a few different configurations. 

It was an odd end to the season and one driver capitalized on it, while a lot of drivers never got things straightened out. Da Costa was focused and never had an off day, other than possibly the season opener in Saudi Arabia when it was 14th and tenth. Every other driver had a snag. Vandoorne had his pair of bad races. Vergne retired from two of the first three races. Buemi was outside the points in the first three races. 

Even the driver that were scoring points regularly were not regularly at the front. Rowland was outside the top five in four of the eight races he scored points. Sixth to tenth do not pay enough for a driver to be a championship contender. Di Grassi was sixth, seventh or eighth in eight races. That's not good enough for a driver to be a champion. 

We did lose a little of this season. I am not talking about all the cancelled rounds, but this was supposed to be a 14-race season, three more than actually happened. I don't think it would have mattered if da Costa had the same form as we saw and the rest of the field could not string together results to challenge the Portuguese driver. 

In terms of schedule for next year, I have already expressed reservations about the opening five races in Chile, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and China from the middle of January through the middle of March. Perhaps, the schedule from April 10 in Rome onward can take place, but 2021 could be a day of reckoning for Formula E scheduling. 

Hopefully, come spring next year we can host sporting events and have some type of attendance allowed, but will street races in city centers be allowed during a pandemic, especially if significant spectator restrictions are still in place? If the answer is no, we very well could see Rome, Paris and Seoul fall off the schedule.

Berlin worked because Tempelhof Airport is currently a park. You can race there and not affect local traffic patterns. Mexico City is at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, the same boat as Berlin, and Monaco is Monaco. 

Every other venue is in question. A city is not going to spend the millions of dollars to work on track construction for the weeks, if not months, ahead of a one-day show. If the first five races cannot happen on schedule, Formula E might need another Berlin setup with four races at one location just to get the season on track. It could be more if Rome and Paris and axed early. I doubt Berlin would be the option in the springtime. This might require Formula E to look at a permanent facility, such as Valencia and Donington Park, two venues the series has used for testing in the past. 

Formula E might have to accept an identity change because of this pandemic. I know the series has built its identity on being in cities, but if European cities balk at the idea and other cities around the globe have the same hesitation, the series will have to change. Is it ready to accept that? Can it accept that? Every series is going to face tough times over the next few years with the ripple effect from the pandemic. How will Formula E handle an identity change to its schedule? Will it evolve or will it try and hold on to what it wants to be?  

Identity in location is one thing, but identity on track is another area where evolution will be necessary. The current production is not bad, but it come be hamstringing the series from its full potential. 

On paper, it is not impressive. The average speed of the 11 races were...

Saudi Arabia I: 68.296 MPH
Saudi Arabia II: 59.596 MPH
Santiago: 73.835 MPH
Mexico City: 74.893 MPH
Marrakesh: 80.334 MPH
Berlin I: 67.054 MPH
Berlin II: 72.023 MPH
Berlin III: 66.43 MPH
Berlin IV: 69.992 MPH
Berlin V: 70.808 MPH
Berlin VI: 70.977 MPH

These are only 45-minute races and with cars limited on how much energy that can be used they are automatically conservation races. That doesn't have to be the case and shouldn't be the case. People do not want to watch conservation all the time. These should be sprint races. The energy limit should be the entire battery. A Formula E race should be about completing the most mileage in 45 minutes and using the entire battery to get there, not being limited and trying to make the most of what is given. 

If one team can run 100 miles in that 45 minutes before the battery dies, and other teams can only go flat out and complete 90 miles, then great! That is what this series should be! It should be about getting the most mileage going as fast as you can, and it should show the capabilities of an electric automobile going flat out. 

People don't want to tune in to watch cars race at speeds that are equal to what they run on the highway. The racing has to be something the everyday person does not do! It should be out of their skill set and something that is admired. If it is not, then the people will not give it the time of day.

There are still a lot of questions for the grid. 

Techeetah is retaining da Costa and Vergne. Bird is moving to Jaguar with Evans. Nick Cassidy joins Virgin after years of success in the Super GT and Super Formula series in Japan. Sims moves to Mahindra with an unknown teammate. Günther will have a new teammate at BMW i Andretti. Wehrlein makes Porsche an all-German lineup with Lotterer. 

We don't know the futures of NIO, Dragon, Audi, Venturi, Nissan and Mercedes-Benz. I would think Nissan and Mercedes-Benz will keep its drivers. Audi will need a new drive to pair with di Grassi and Rast could be the guy. Massa already announced his retirement, so Venturi will have at least one new driver. Dragon and NIO both have to get their acts together. 

Significant driver movement lurks on the horizon for 2021. 

With many changes likely ahead of us, it should be noted we have seen a third power rise in Formula E. Techeetah has consecutive teams' championships and was second the year before. It has won three consecutive drivers' championships. Along with Nissan and Audi, those are the three big powers and Techeetah is leading the way. Mercedes-Benz could make it a four-horse battle. Jaguar is knocking on the door but is struggling to breakthrough. 

After six seasons, each new Formula E seasons is not a complete unknown. We have history. We have patterns. We know who should be strong based on past results. We know who to be surprised with if they show great pace. Expectations have been set and there is no passing off not living up to them.



Thursday, September 3, 2020

2020 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Preview

Despite not hosting a race from March 8 to May 17, the NASCAR Cup Series playoff begin on schedule at Darlington Raceway for the Southern 500. 

Twenty-six races are in the book and 16 drivers remain vying for a championship. 

This year's playoff begins two weeks earlier than past seasons and there are two new tracks in the final ten races compared to 2019. Each cutoff race is different from the prior year and for the first time since 2001, the season finale is not at Homestead-Miami Speedway. 

Thirteen drivers have returned to the playoffs after making it in 2019. Two drivers this year are making their playoff debuts. How does this field stack up? Who could go the distance and make it to the finale? Who will struggle to get out of round one? Let's meet the drivers and how they line up entering the playoffs.

1. Kevin Harvick - 2057 points
Victories: 7 (Darlington 1, Atlanta, Pocono I, Indianapolis, Michigan I and II, Dover II)
Top Fives: 17
Top Tens: 21
Darlington I Result: 1st
Darlington II Result: 3rd
Richmond Average Finish: 9.8 (Three victories, 15 top fives, 25 top tens, 38 starts)
Bristol I Result: 11th
What are his expectations: Final four. 

Harvick won seven of 26 races and he was in the top ten for 21 of 26 races. His worst finish was 26th at Homestead and that is a track we are not returning to. In fact, the tracks where Harvick's worst three finishes have come at are not in the playoffs (Homestead, Daytona road course and Daytona oval).

Harvick has made the final four in five of six years. This year, he was the regular season champion. He was running at the finish of every race. Round one sets up nicely for Harvick. He won at Darlington in May and he has a good record at the two short tracks. His playoff points should be enough to fall back on to advance to round two. He has won at Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte roval are question marks but his playoff points could carry him there as well and then the semifinal round is Kansas, Texas and Martinsville. He has won the Texas playoff race three consecutive years. 

Final four is the minimum. When you have had a season this good, anything but a championship will feel like failure.

2. Denny Hamlin - 2047 points
Victories: 6 (Daytona 500, Darlington II, Homestead, Pocono II, Kansas, Dover I)
Top Fives: 15
Top Tens: 17
Darlington I Result: 5th
Darlington II Result: 1st
Richmond Average Finish: 9.1 (Three victories, 13 top fives, 17 top tens, 27 starts)
Bristol I Result: 17th
What are his expectations: Final four. 

Take everything for Harvick and apply it to Hamlin. Hamlin heads into the playoffs with his last eight finishes being first, second, sixth, second, second, first, 19th and third. He has led the second-most laps this season. He is one of three drivers averaging a top ten finish this year. It is top four or bust for him. He has been that good this year. 

The first round is suited to Hamlin. He already has a victory at Darlington this year, he runs well in his home state of Virginia, and Bristol is the one question, but Hamlin should be safe before Bristol. Vegas is a weak spot for Hamlin, but he has finished in the top five of all three plate races this year and four consecutive top fives going back to last year... which means he is due for a bad result. The Charlotte roval has not been kind to Hamlin, but he was second on the Daytona road course and he was in the top five at Sonoma and Watkins Glen last year. Hamlin won the Kansas playoff race last year. He is good at Texas and he has seven consecutive top ten finishes in the Martinsville playoff race.

Hamlin will be fine, but like Harvick, anything shot of a championship will feel like failure. After all of Hamlin's close calls, this feels destined to be his year.  

3. Brad Keselowski - 2029 points
Victories: 3 (Coca-Cola 600, Bristol, Loudon)
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 19
Darlington I Result: 13th
Darlington II Result: 4th
Richmond Average Finish: 12.7 (One victory, five top fives, 11 top tens, 21 starts)
Bristol I Result: 1st
What are his expectations: Round of eight. 

I don't think Keselowski's season is as impressive as three victories sound. He won the Coca-Cola 600 after Chase Elliott decided to pit before the final restart when clear air was king. Even Elliott wasn't in the best car that night, Alex Bowman was and Martin Truex, Jr. was second-best. Then throw in Bristol, where Joey Logano ran into Chase Elliott and allowed Keselowski to drive-through to victory with two laps to go. Keselowski did lead over 100 laps in that race, but so did Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney was taken out while in the top five. In another world, where Chase Elliott's team doesn't beat itself and Joey Logano doesn't go in with reckless abandon, Keselowski has one victory and I think we are all seeing him as a dark horse for the top four. 

Keselowski has not had a top five in the last five races. In the second half of the regular season, he had only three top five finishes. Since winning at Loudon, he has led ten laps. First round shouldn't be a problem, and neither should be the second. That semifinal round is a toss-up and with two 1.5-mile ovals, Keselowski's only top five finishes on intermediate tracks were his Charlotte victory and second at Kansas. He has been good on 1.5-mile ovals, but not great and in the semifinal round, he will need to be great.

4. Joey Logano - 2022 points
Victories: 2 (Las Vegas, Phoenix)
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 18th
Darlington II Result: 6th
Richmond Average Finish: 11.1 (Two victories, nine top fives, 12 top tens, 22 starts)
Bristol I Result: 21st
What are his expectations: Round of eight. 

For the second straight year, Logano enters the playoffs on a drought, only this one is longer. Logano has not won since the pandemic delay. Last year, he led the championships after his victory at Michigan in June and didn't win again all season, flaming out in the semifinal round. Like Keselowski, Logano had only three top five finishes in the last 13 races. He has led in eight of the last 13 races, but his most laps led in a single race was 36 at Daytona last week. 

Logano should get through round one. He could get tripped up in round two. Keselowski got tripped up in round two last year. Logano's finishes in round two last year were 34th, 11th and 17th. He has been good, but not fantastic at Charlotte. His saving grace is Las Vegas and Talladega. Then there is the semifinal round. He led 234 laps at Martinsville in June. You cannot rule him out to make the championship race at Phoenix, but it doesn't feel like he will make the top four. It would not be a surprise, but it doesn't feel likely heading into September.

5. Chase Elliott - 2020 points
Victories: 2 (Charlotte II, Daytona Road Course)
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 15
Darlington I Result: 4th
Darlington II Result: 38th
Richmond Average Finish: 12.8 (Zero victories, two top fives, three top tens, nine starts)
Bristol I Result: 22nd
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four. 

Elliott has been pretty consistent in his career. In his first four Cup seasons, his top five totals were ten, 12, 11 and 11. His top ten totals were 17, 21, 21 and 15. He is knocking on the door for a personal best in top fives and could push a personal best in top tens. 

Last year, he was horrendous in the semifinal round after scrapping through round two. I am worried about round one. His fallback in round two is the Charlotte roval. It is a matter of can he breakthrough and beat Harvick and Hamlin when it matters most in that semifinal round. I think he will be there. It is going to be tough to get over the line. 

6. Martin Truex, Jr. - 2014 points
Victories: 1 (Martinsville)
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 17
Darlington I Result: 6th
Darlington II Result: 10th
Richmond Average Finish: 17.9 (Two victories, five top fives, 11 top tens, 28 starts)
Bristol I Result: 20th
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four. 

This has been another solid season from Truex. The only difference is his only victory was Martinsville in June. He does have eight consecutive top five finishes heading into Darlington and he has nine top fives in the last ten races. Kentucky got away from him. He had a good shot at the first Dover race and the Daytona road course maybe got away from him because of a speeding penalty. 

Other than Talladega, there is no weak spot for Truex in the playoffs. He won swept the Richmond races last year. He won at Las Vegas last year and he has won the last two Martinsville races. There is a version of this playoffs where Truex wins at Richmond, follows it up with another Vegas victory, wins Kansas off the bat in the semifinal round and he is the first driver locked into the final race. It probably will not be as simple as that. He has finished in the top two of the championship the last three years and he has made the championship race four of the last five years. Extending that streak will be hard, but not impossible.

7. Ryan Blaney - 2013 points
Victories: 1 (Talladega)
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Darlington I Result: 16th
Darlington II Result: 21st
Richmond Average Finish: 25.5 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, eight starts)
Bristol I Result: 40th
What are his expectations: Round of eight, but possible second round elimination.

Blaney looked strong through the first half of the season. He was as high as second in points at Texas but dropped to sixth at the end of the regular season. He has one top five finish in the last 13 races. He has nine finishes outside the top ten in the last 13 races. This is a guy heading in cold to a first round that features Darlington, his fifth-worst track and Richmond, his worst track. 

Blaney should accidentally make the second round. He is better than Austin Dillon, Cole Custer, Matt DiBenedetto, Alex Bowman, Aric Almirola and William Byron. All he has to do is be average. In the second round, he has to step it up. The inaugural Charlotte roval race was gifted to him and he has won the last two Talladega races, but fortunate is not always going to save this guy. 

8. Alex Bowman - 2009 points
Victories: 1 (Fontana)
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 8
Darlington I Result: 2nd
Darlington II Result: 18th
Richmond Average Finish: 25.6 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, eight starts)
Bristol I Result: 37th
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possible first round elimination.

Congratulations Alex Bowman, you won Fontana. You have had two top five finishes since... the first Darlington race and the second Dover race. The results have been too sporadic to think Bowman can go far. He was 11th or 12th in the championship for the eight races leading up to Daytona. He has finished fifth and seventh in the last two races. That is the only time Bowman has had consecutive top ten finishes this season. 

A first-round elimination should not be a surprise for Bowman, but you just have to be average to get out of round one. There are 16 drivers, fighting for 12 spots and only ten guys can finish in the top ten each week. You can be tenth in each race and advance with comfort. He will have to have the best Richmond race of his career and one of his best Bristol days for him to move on with ease. After that, his best chance of making the semifinal round is having a Talladega or Charlotte victory fall into his lap.

9. William Byron - 2007 points
Victories: 1 (Daytona II)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 9
Darlington I Result: 35th
Darlington II Result: 12th
Richmond Average Finish: 17.2 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, four starts)
Bristol I Result: 8th
What are his expectations: First round elimination, could sneak into the round of 12.

Byron is coming in hot, off his only two top five finishes of the season and his first career Cup victory at Daytona. This streak Byron is on reminds me of a team that has to fight to make the playoffs, it is a great achievement that it made the playoffs and then immediately is bounced from the playoffs because all the emotional energy was spent just to get there. 

His best Darlington finish is 12th with three finishes outside the top twenty, two are 35th-place finishes. His best Richmond finish is 12th with two finishes of 20th or worse and prior to finishing eighth at Bristol in June, his best finish was 16th. He could sneak into the next round and it would not be a surprise if he made the top 12, but this could be a quick playoffs for him.

10. Austin Dillon - 2005 points
Victories: 1 (Texas)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 11th
Darlington II Result: 20th
Richmond Average Finish: 18.7 (Zero victories, zero top fives, two top tens, 12 starts)
Bristol I Result: 6th
What are his expectations: First round elimination. 

Dillon's team knew clear air would win out at Texas and it did after taking no tires on his final pit stop. His only other top five finish was fourth at Las Vegas, which came with the help of strategy late. He has only two other top ten finishes in the last 13 races. 

The first round is a dream for Dillon. Darlington is his second-best track after Homestead, and Bristol and Richmond are good tracks for him. There is a case where Dillon finishes tenth, 13th and ninth and slips into the second round. He can slip into round two, but he is not going to slip into the round of eight. Eventually, you do get found out. Maybe he slips through and wins Talladega, but that round of eight separates the wheat from the chaff. In the unlikely case he makes it that far, that is when Dillon will blow away in the autumnal wind.

11. Cole Custer - 2005 points
Victories: 1 (Kentucky)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 6
Darlington I Result: 22nd
Darlington II Result: 31st
Richmond Average Finish: 26.0 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, one start)
Bristol I Result: 35th
What are his expectations: First round elimination. 

The lucky duck of the 2020 NASCAR season is Custer for his Kentucky victory. His only other top five finish was the race before that at Indianapolis. Five of his six top ten finishes did come in the last 13 races, but the first round will make quick work of Custer. 

Two Darlington races in May were good practice but 500 miles on a sweltering South Carolina summer night will burn the 22-year-old out. Although, he did win the Grand National Series race last year after Denny Hamlin was disqualified. I digress, this is another level and that was only a 200-mile race last year. Three races, three mid-pack results. It will be like Custer never made the playoffs at all.

12. Aric Almirola - 2005 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 12th
Darlington II Result: 7th
Richmond Average Finish: 16.0 (Zero victories, two top fives, five top tens, 16 starts)
Bristol I Result: 29th
What are his expectations: Round of 12. 

Almirola was on fire when summer started, five consecutive top five finishes and nine consecutive top ten finishes. He has cooled off with just two top ten finishes in the last six races. Almirola should do enough to be in the top 12 after these three races. He is a good driver, and no more than that. 

He should skate through and then run into the second round buzzsaw. His Talladega results are encouraging but his Las Vegas results and road course results in general tell another story. Although, he has won Talladega before. Unless he wins Talladega again, he is not making the round of eight.

13. Clint Bowyer - 2004 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 17th
Darlington II Result: 22nd
Richmond Average Finish: 12.5 (Two victories, five top fives, 16 top tens, 28 starts)
Bristol I Result: 2nd
What are his expectations: Round of 12.

Bowyer has not been terrific this season, but isn't that the story of Bowyer's career, not terrific? His best finish in the last 13 races is sixth. He led the first 43 laps at Michigan because of the inversion of the starting grid and clean air is king. Other than Michigan, he hasn't led since Atlanta in June. 

The first round should not be an issue for Bowyer. He probably should have won the second Darlington race in May if it were not for being hit from behind thanks to Quin Houff. He should be fine at Richmond and Bristol, but it will be tougher in the second round I don't think Bowyer has what it takes.

14. Kyle Busch - 2003 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 26th
Darlington II Result: 2nd
Richmond Average Finish: 6.8 (Six victories, 18 top fives, 22 top tens, 29 starts)
Bristol I Result: 4th
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four. 

How can you have a driver who did not win one of the first 26 races as a possible final four driver?

One, because the only drivers with more top five finishes than Busch are Harvick and Hamlin. Two, because Busch has not gone more than two races without a top five finish this season. Three, Busch is returning to all the playoff tracks except Richmond and the Charlotte roval. Four, something has to break his way. He is going to pull at least one, if not more, of these races out. 

We saw Tony Stewart go winless through 26 races in 2011 and then win five of ten to take the championship. The first round is Darlington, Richmond and Bristol. You don't think Busch could win all of those, let alone just one? Then it is Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte roval. Ok, a tougher and more unpredictable task. The semifinal round is Kansas, Texas and Martinsville. 

There is a world where Busch wins Darlington, wins Charlotte and wins Martinsville and all of a sudden, he is in Phoenix with a shot at the championship. He has made the final four in the last five seasons. Six consecutive championship race appearances is a stretch and the law of averages does start to work against him, but I don't think Busch is 14th, though that is what the initial standings tell us. He will get out of the round of 16. Look at who he has to beat! He was already ninth in the championship before the playoff reset! He might not get back to the final four, but he will be in that final eight and have a stiff at it. 

15. Kurt Busch - 2001 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 3rd
Darlington II Result: 15th
Richmond Average Finish: 15.4 (Two victories, seven top fives, 15 top tens, 38 starts)
Bristol I Result: 7th
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possibly round of eight. 

Kurt Busch is the king of the quietly good, yet unimpressive season. Four top five finishes are low, and he hasn't been in the top five since Kentucky. He does enter on a cold streak, four consecutive finishes outside the top ten, but Busch just needs a few good races. 

Bristol is one of his best tracks. He is on a bit of a lull at Richmond, but he has five top ten finishes in his last three Darlington races. Busch had been in the top ten of the championship for all but two of the last 19 races. 

Busch could be a surprise round of eight driver, but one that would not feel like a surprise. He is a past champion after all and has 31 Cup victories to his name. If he won Talladega, no one would be shocked. I think that is a stretch. The top 12 is more of his hunting ground.

16. Matt DiBenedetto - 2000 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 14th
Darlington II Result: 9th
Richmond Average Finish: 28.7 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, ten starts)
Bristol I Result: 31st
What are his expectations: First round elimination.

Remember how I said Byron could be eliminated in round one because of emotional energy spent to make the playoffs? DiBenedetto is on empty in the emotional tank. He snuck into the playoffs at Daytona, avoiding all the accidents while Jimmie Johnson was collateral damage. This has been a good year for DiBenedetto. He has matched his career-high for top ten finishes in a season, but he has four top ten finishes in his last 13 races, and he has finished outside the top ten in the last four races.

The first round is set up for DiBenedetto. He was good at Darlington in May. Bristol is his best track. His Richmond results are surprising worse than you would think, but he could put together a good day there. There is a version of the payoffs where DiBenedetto slips into a seventh-place finish at Darlington, is 16th and not a factor at Richmond, but finishes ninth at Bristol and advances to the second round by a point or two. That could happen. I don't see it. There is a reason why he was 14th in points after 26 races. He just needs three good races, but those results will not be good enough.

Playoff Predictions
First Round Eliminations:
16. Cole Custer
15. Austin Dillon
14. Matt DiBenedetto
13. William Byron
Second Round Eliminations:
12. Alex Bowman
11. Clint Boywer
10. Aric Almirola
9. Kurt Busch
Round of Eight Eliminations:
8. Ryan Blaney
7. Brad Keselowski
6. Joey Logano
5. Kyle Busch
Final Four:
4. Chase Elliott
3. Martin Truex, Jr. 
2. Denny Hamlin
1. Kevin Harvick


Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Let's Look at the League – September 2020

Good news! We have completed nine IndyCar races through August.

Bad news! Mid-Ohio is floating as an unscheduled doubleheader and there are either three races left or five races left, and there is a chance IndyCar will not race again until October. 

Don't worry, it will figure itself out, and Mid-Ohio will hopefully be rescheduled this month. If not, IndyCar either will scramble for another make-up round or this season will just have 12 races. 

Either way, we are halfway through this season, this more condensed and somehow longer feeling season. We are almost at the end, as strange and hollow as that sounds. 

This is the second year I am tracking a league format for IndyCar, using head-to-head matchups to determine weekly standings with a playoff and promotion and relegation for the participating IndyCar teams.

We had to make a few adjustments to this because of the altered schedule and those were spelled out in July. If everything had gone to plan, we would have been looking at five completed rounds since July, with three rounds left in the regular season and that concluding at the Laguna Seca doubleheader. With Portland and Laguna Seca gone, Gateway and the Harvest Grand Prix on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course expended to doubleheaders and the unknown status of a Mid-Ohio doubleheader, where are we now? 

Because Mid-Ohio was delayed at last minute, that head-to-head matchup shifted back. I kept all the scheduled matchups for Indianapolis 500 qualifying, the Indianapolis 500 and Gateway the same. The Mid-Ohio matchups are the next two scheduled rounds, though if Mid-Ohio is not rescheduled, I will have to come up with something else. 

I could just end the season, expand the playoffs back to eight teams and take the top four from each conference have the playoffs over the final three races. The bottom of each conference would be relegated and the top two from League Two would get promoted. I don't want to do that because the league would be unbalanced, and some matchups would have only happened once instead of twice. 

It is tough to make up two matchups. I could use qualifying from Iowa and/or Gateway. Texas and Indianapolis qualifying came into play. The issue with Iowa and Gateway is qualifying was for two races. The first lap of each qualifying run set the race one grid and the second lap set the field for the second race. 

Here is what I am proposing, and this is only if Mid-Ohio doesn't get rescheduled, the first Mid-Ohio matchups will be the average starting position of the two Iowa races and the second Mid-Ohio matchups will be the average starting position of the two Mid-Ohio races. I don't know how that will play out. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but a contingency plan is in place. 

Either way, the regular season finale will be the first Harvest Grand Prix race. The playoff races will be the second Harvest Grand Prix race and St. Petersburg. 

What does the league look like through 11 weeks? 

League One Results:

Week 1 (TEXAS QUALIFYING):
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (1 to 20)
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (2 to 13)
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (6 to 16)
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR (22 to 7)

#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (3 to 11)
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (8 to 10)
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP (9 to 18)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (4 to 23)

Week 2 (TEXAS):
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR (3 to 5)
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP (1 to 9)
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (13 to 17)
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (24 to 23)

#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt (2 to 10)
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (15 to 14)
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (20 to 21)
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (8 to 12)

Week 3 (GPOI):
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (7 to 19)
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (1 to 2)
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (20 to 26)
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (10 to 12)

#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP (3 to 8)
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (25 to 9)
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti (15 to 22)
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (13 to 21)

Week 4 (ROAD AMERICA):
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (14 to 7)
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske (1 to 2)
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (9 to 15)
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (3 to 21)

#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (6 to 12)
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (19 to 18)
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (4 to 22)
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt (8 to 20)

Week 5 (ROAD AMERICA):
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (9 to 8)
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne (12 to 7)
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR (11 to 18) 
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (23 to 21)

#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti (13 to 22)
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (3 to 2)
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt (1 to 20)
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti (6 to 19)

Week 6 (IOWA):
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske (5 to 21)
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 10)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (12 to 15)
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP (11 to 3)

#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (1 to 14)
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti (6 to 16)
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt (13 to 18)
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti (4 to 22)

Week 7 (IOWA):
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi (1 to 5)
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 21)
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (3 to 14)
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP (23 to 6)

#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti (4 to 8)
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti (15 to 22)
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP (18 to 12)
#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti (11 to 10)

Week 8 (INDIANAPOLIS 500 QUALIFYING):

#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR (13 to 16)

#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP (2 to 21)

#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (22 to 7)

#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (3 to 8)

 

#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt (25 to 23)

#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (9 to 1)

#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (14 to 19)

#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (5 to 15)

 

Week 9 (INDIANAPOLIS 500):

#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (5 to 28)

#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (2 to 3)

#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (14 to 30)

#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (1 to 26)

 

#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP (22 to 6)

#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (27 to 4)

#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti (12 to 13)

#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (10 to 19)

 

Week 10 (GATEWAY):

#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (12 to 18)

#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske (1 to 17)

#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (2 to 14)

#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (15 to 20)

 

#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (19 to 16)

#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (22 to 8)

#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (7 to 23)

#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt (3 to 9)

 

Week 11 (GATEWAY):

#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (1 to 9)

#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne (5 to 12)

#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR (3 to 21)

#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (20 to 17)

 

#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti (16 to 11)

#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (14 to 2)

#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt (7 to 19)

#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti (10 to 15)


Conference 1 Standings:

#1 Penske 9-2

#9 Ganassi 9-2

#12 Penske 7-4

#30 RLLR 6-5

#15 RLLR 5-6

#55 Coyne 4-7

#7 AMSP 4-7

#20 ECR 0-11


Conference 2 Standings:

#10 Ganassi 10-1

#28 Andretti 8-3

#18 Coyne 7-4

#22 Penske 6-5

#5 AMSP 6-5

#98 Andretti 3-8

#27 Andretti 2-9

#14 Foyt 1-10


Where are we at?
Somehow, Felix Rosenqvist is 10-1 in head-to-head matchups. I went over his incredible run to start the year back in July. Since, Rosenqvist went 4-0. 

Meanwhile, Simon Pagenaud has lost four consecutive matchups, while Ryan Hunter-Reay went 4-0 and Santino Ferrucci went 3-1, putting Hunter-Reay into the second playoff spot from Conference 2 ahead of Ferrucci and Pagenaud is tied with Patricio O'Ward and O'Ward went 3-1 in his last four matchups. 

In Conference 1, Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden have gone 4-0 since July. Will Power, Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato have all gone 2-2 since. 

Because of the nature of the standings, Rosenqvist is all but a lock, just needing one win over the final three matchups. The door is still open for the second spot between Hunter-Reay, Ferrucci, Pagenaud and O'Ward.

Conference 1 is a runaway. Because Dixon and Newgarden face each other in the final week, the worst either can do is 10-4, meaning one of them is assured a playoff spot. Even if the other loses out, only Power or Rahal could make it. Dixon beat Rahal and Power twice, so tiebreaker to Dixon in both cases. Dixon is pretty much locked in, even if it all goes wrong. Newgarden split with Rahal and is up 1-0 on Power with those two meeting again in the penultimate week.  

In case of a tie in the head-to-head meetings, the second tiebreaker is overall victory total and Newgarden is sitting with two victories with three races left. 

What about the relegation battle?
It is over in Conference 1. The #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry is relegated because it is 0-11 in matchups this year! Last year, Zach Veach in the #26 Andretti Autosport entry had something similar. Veach started 0-11 last year before winning at Iowa and that was his only victory.  

After starting 0-7, the #20 ECR entry lost in "500" qualifying to Newgarden, the "500" itself to Sato and lost to Álex Palou and Power at Gateway. With three weeks left, the #20 ECR entry is four back of Palou and Oliver Askew. It's over!

In Conference 2, it is wide-open, a three-horse race. Two matchups separate Marco Andretti, Alexander Rossi and the #14 A.J. Foyt Racing entry with three to play. Andretti got a big win in Indianapolis 500 qualifying, over Rossi nonetheless, but he was only 1-3 over his last four matchups. Rossi's season from hell continues. He went 0-4 in his last four matchups. Andretti holds the tiebreaker over Rossi. Three times Rossi has finished in the top ten for a matchup and lost this season! 

The #14 Foyt entry is 1-10, way closer than Rossi would like. Rossi is up 1-0 on the #14 Foyt entry after beating Tony Kanaan in Texas qualifying. It is slated for Rossi to face the #14 entry in the first Mid-Ohio race. That could decide relegation right there. Rossi wins, it is over. If Dalton Kellett wins, it could go to the wire, the two entries would be level with two matchups remaining, though Rossi would likely hold the tiebreaker with a better race finish this season.

The #14 Foyt entry started 0-7, but Tony Kanaan beat Pagenaud in Indianapolis 500 qualifying. Kanaan then lost his final three matchups. 

League Two Results:

Week 1:
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR (14 to 21)
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR (24 to 17)
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (19 to 12)

Week 2:
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR (7 to 19)
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR (22 to 16)
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 11)
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)

Week 3:
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt (5 to 18)
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR (14 to 17)
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (16 to 12)

Week 4:
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt (5 to 11)
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (13 to 16)
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (17 to 23)
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (Walkover)

Week 5:
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin (5 to 15)
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR (16 to 4)
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR (10 to 17)

Week 6:
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti (19 to 23)
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin (20 to 8)
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR (17 to 9)
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (Walkover)

Week 7:
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR (17 to 19)
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin (20 to 13)
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR (7 to 9)

Week 8:

#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR (10 to 11)

#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR (6 to 20)

#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt (17 to 29)

#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)

 

Week 9:

#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)

#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt (18 to 20)

#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR (9 to 15)

#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (17 to 32)

 

Week 10:

#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 13)

#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (6 to 21)

#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (10 to 11)

#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (Walkover)

 

Week 11:

#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin (6 to 8)

#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)

#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR (22 to 23)

#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR (18 to 13)


League Two standings:

#88 AHSR 10-1

#59 Carlin 7-4

#21 ECR 7-4

#8 Ganassi 6-5

#60 MSR 5-6

#26 Andretti 5-6

#4 Foyt 4-7

#31 Carlin 0-11


Is promotion secured for the #88 Andretti Harding Steinbrenner Racing entry?
Yes! Though only three victories clear over third with three to go, because the #59 Carlin entry and the #21 Ed Carpenter Racing entry will meet in the penultimate weekend, only one of those two entries, and not both, can finish ahead of the #88 AHSR entry, which means the worst Herta can finish is second and he will take up one of the promotion spots. 

What about the other final promotion spot?
It could come down to that penultimate weekend matchup, but Marcus Ericsson is a victory back and should face Rinus VeeKay in the first Mid-Ohio weekend, which could drag Ericsson right back into the fight.

Jack Harvey and Zach Veach are both guaranteed one victory because they each have the #31 Carlin in the final three weeks. It is not a guarantee victory if Carlin rolls that car out, but it likely will be a win for each Harvey and Veach. Veach will face the #59 Carlin entry in the final week. VeeKay ends with Herta. That second spot is still up for grabs. 

Tentative Remaining Schedule


League One

Week 12 (MID-OHIO):

#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP

#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR

#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne

#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR

 

#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti

#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt

#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP

#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne

 

Week 13 (MID-OHIO):

#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske

#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR

#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR

#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP

 

#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi

#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti

#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt

#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti

 

Week 14 (HARVEST GP):

#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi

#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR

#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne

#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP

 

#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti

#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti

#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP

#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti


League Two

Week 12:

#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR

#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR

#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin

#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt


Week 13:

#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti

#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin

#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR

#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR

 

Week 14:

#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR

#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin

#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin

#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR


Matchups to Watch
League One:
Mid-Ohio I: Rossi vs. Kellett, Hunter-Reay vs. Ferrucci, Sato vs. Rahal
Mid-Ohio II: Newgarden vs. Power, Pagenaud vs. Rosenqvist
Harvest Grand Prix I: Newgarden vs. Dixon, Power vs. Sato, Pagenaud vs. Rossi, Rosenqvist vs. Hunter-Reay, Ferrucci vs. O'Ward

League Two:
Mid-Ohio I: Herta vs. Harvey, VeeKay vs. Ericsson
Mid-Ohio II: VeeKay vs. Chilton
Harvest Grand Prix I: Herta vs. VeeKay, Veach vs. Chilton, Ericsson vs. Harvey

I plan on doing one final catchup, after the Harvest Grand Prix and then tie up loose ends and look to 2021 after St. Petersburg.