Track Walk: 107th Indianapolis 500

The sixth round of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season is the 107th Indianapolis 500. For the second consecutive year, the record for fastest starting grid was set. Along with the fastest field, the fastest pole position average was set and we also saw the fastest front row in the history of the event. Chevrolet has the upper-hand in participants this year, 17 entries to Honda's 16. It is the first time Chevrolet has the most representatives since 2020. For the third consecutive year, there are at least 14 nationalities represented on the grid, no new ones, but one is returning for the first time in 83 years. Four rookies are in the field with nine past winners, the fourth time there are at least nine past winners in an Indianapolis 500. For the second consecutive year, a fifth Indianapolis 500 victory is in play.

Coverage

Time: Peacock will begin the pre-race coverage at 9:00 a.m. ET. NBC's pre-race coverage begins at 11:00 a.m. ET on Sunday May 29.
TV Channel: NBC/Peacock

Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and James Hinchcliffe will be in the booth. Kevin Lee, Dillon Welch, Dave Burns and Marty Snider will work pit lane. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Steve Letarte will provide additional pit lane coverage. Mike Tirico and Danica Patrick will participate in pre-race and post-race coverage.

Indianapolis 500 Weekend Schedule
Carb Day:
Practice - 11:00 a.m.–1:00 p.m. ET (2 hours). 

Pit Stop Competition - 2:30 p.m. ET
Sunday:
Race - 12:45 p.m. ET (200 laps).

Driver Change

Since the conclusion of qualifying Sunday evening there has been a change to the starting grid. 

Stefan Wilson suffered a fractured vertebra after being in an accident with Katherine Legge during the Monday practice. Due to Wilson's injury, Graham Rahal will drive the #24 Dreyer & Reinbold Chevrolet in the 107th Indianapolis 500. 

Rahal failed to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 last Sunday in his #15 United Rentals Honda for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing after teammate Jack Harvey bumped Rahal out of the field on the final qualifying attempt in the last chance qualifying round. 

Rahal has started 15 Indianapolis 500s and he has started 263 IndyCar races, 210 of which have been consecutive. Rahal has driven for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing since the start of the 2013 season after spending two seasons with Chip Ganassi Racing. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing will be the fourth team Rahal has driven for in the Indianapolis 500. His first two "500" starts were with Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing in 2008 and 2009. 

In 15 Indianapolis 500 starts, Rahal has finished third twice, fifth once and he has four top ten finishes. He has finished outside the top 30 four times, including 32nd two years ago and he has twice finished 33rd. 

Due to the driver change, Rahal will start 33rd. Wilson had qualified 25th. Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has had a top ten finisher in the last two Indianapolis 500s. The team has never had a top ten finish in three consecutive Indianapolis 500s. Dreyer & Reinbold also has Ryan Hunter-Reay driving its #23 entry at Indianapolis. Hunter-Reay will start 18th.

This would have been Stefan Wilson's fifth Indianapolis 500 start, and his first with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. Wilson had finished 33rd and 27th the previous two years. His best finish was 15th in 2018.

Palou vs. O'Ward

Through the first five races of the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season, two familiar but young faces have been flexing their muscle and have controlled the championship early on.

After his victory in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, Álex Palou assumed the championship lead from Patricio O'Ward. Palou is up six points on O'Ward as Palou victory was his fourth consecutive top five finish, and he has finished in the top eight of every race this season. 

O'Ward has been close in 2023, three runner-up finishes with a fourth at Barber and the only blemish through five races is 17th at Long Beach after the Mexican driver had a spin in turn eight. O'Ward led the championship after the second race of the season at Texas. O'Ward is the first driver with three runner-up results within the first five races since Scott Dixon did it in 2019. 

In Indianapolis 500 qualifying, Palou ran a four-lap average at 234.217 mph to take pole position after McLaren and Chevrolet had been on top for most of the two qualifying days. O'Ward wound up fifth on the grid at 233.158 mph. 

These two drivers went toe-to-toe for the IndyCar championship in 2021. O'Ward was leading the championship entering the final three races. He was in good control of the championship at Portland after Palou was shuffled back after missing the chicane at the start and O'Ward led the way, but timing of the cautions and tire wear saw O'Ward fall backward while Palou recovered, pulled out the victory and snatched back the championship lead by 25 points entering the final two races. 

Palou went on to win the championship while O'Ward retired due to a mechanical failure in the Long Beach season finale. 

Not only have these two been at it for the championship, but the have battled at Indianapolis as well.

In 2021, Palou started sixth at Indianapolis while O'Ward started 12th. Both led during the race with Palou leading the second most laps, 35 in total, and he was leading coming to the start of the antepenultimate lap before Hélio Castroneves made the race-winning move into turn one. O'Ward had spent a good portion of the race in the top five and led 17 laps of his own, finishing fourth.

Last year, Palou led 47 laps from second on the grid, but needing emergency service under a caution due to low fuel took the Spaniard out of contention. O'Ward started seventh and again spent much of the race in the top five, running behind Scott Dixon for a good portion in the second half of the race. When Dixon sped entering pit lane on his final stop, O'Ward inherited the lead but was soon passed after Marcus Ericsson chased down the McLaren driver after the pit cycle. O'Ward remained second when the penultimate caution and red flag came out. Despite one look on the restart, O'Ward was unable to re-take the lead and ended up second while Palou recovered to finish ninth. 

In the last two Indianapolis 500s, Palou had led the second most laps (82) behind only his teammate Chip Ganassi Racing Scott Dixon, who has led 102 of the last 400 laps. O'Ward has led 43 laps, the fourth most behind the two Ganassi drivers and Conor Daly's 47 laps led. The only other driver to lead in both the last two races is Rinus VeeKay, who has led 33 times.

O'Ward has made 60 starts, winning four times while standing on 16 podiums and finishing in the top five 27 times with 36 top ten results. Palou has won and stood on the podium one more time than O'Ward in eight fewer starts but Palou has 21 top five finishes and 33 top ten finishes. O'Ward has led 601 laps to Palou's 389 laps led. 

"500" Winners' Form

Palou and O'Ward each enter the Indianapolis 500 with multiple top five finishes this season, and 40 of the last 57 Indianapolis 500 winners have had at least one top five finish in the races leading up to the Indianapolis 500 that season. 

Last year, Marcus Ericsson had two top five finishes, including a fourth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, the race prior to the "500." However, the two winners before Ericsson did not have a top five finish. 

For Hélio Castroneves, the 2021 Indianapolis 500 was his first start of the season, and while Takuma Sato did not have a top five in the races leading up to the 2020 Indianapolis 500, Sato entered Indianapolis with four top ten results in his previous five starts. Forty-six of the last 57 Indianapolis 500 winners had at least one top ten finish that season prior to Indianapolis.

Fifteen drivers have a top five finish through the first five races of the 2023 season.

Eighteen of the last 57 Indianapolis 500 winners already had a victory that season prior to winning the "500." The good news for Palou is eight of those winners had won the race prior to the Indianapolis 500, including Will Power in 2018 and Simon Pagenaud in 2019, two drivers who had won the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and then won on the oval. 

Four of the last nine Indianapolis 500 winners had a victory before Memorial Day weekend. Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014 and Juan Pablo Montoya 2015 are the others. Montoya is the most recent driver to win the season opener and then win the Indianapolis 500. Hunter-Reay is the most recent driver to finish second in the race prior to Indianapolis and then win the "500." Hunter-Reay is also the only driver to win at Barber Motorsports Park and the Indianapolis 500 in the same season.

Only twice has the Grand Prix of Long Beach winner gone on to win the Indianapolis 500 in the same season (Al Unser, Jr. 1994, Hélio Castroneves 2001). The most recent time an Indianapolis 500 winner had won at an oval prior to Indianapolis was Scott Dixon in 2008 when Dixon won the Homestead season opener.

The good news is bad races do not mean you are necessarily out of the running for victory. Six of the previous seven Indianapolis 500 winners had a result outside the top fifteen in the races prior to the "500." Three of the last five winners had a result outside the top twenty, including Ericsson last year, who was 22nd at Long Beach. Will Power had two finishes outside the top twenty in 2018 prior to his victory. 

However, while one or two bad results have not been a hinderance, most Indianapolis 500 winners have at least been having a good season up to that point. Excluding part-time drivers that won the Indianapolis 500 (Dan Wheldon in 2011 and Castroneves in 2021), there has not been an Indianapolis 500 winner without a top ten finish that season since Kenny Bräck in 1999 when Bräck was 22nd in the World Disney World season opener and 24th at Phoenix.

Eight full-time drivers do not have a top ten finish this season, along with Ed Carpenter and Takuma Sato, who both ran at Texas. Three of those drivers are starting in the first 12 starting positions with Rinus VeeKay leading the way, second on the grid, Santino Ferrucci starts fourth and Benjamin Pedersen is 11th. 

Ericsson's $420,000 Incentive

Since 1995, BorgWarner has offered a $20,000 bonus for a driver if he or she were to win consecutive Indianapolis 500s. However, since no driver has gone back-to-back since Hélio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002, the $20,000 prize has rolled over for 21 years and now the bonus is worth $420,000 and it is only available to Marcus Ericsson. 

How have previous "500" winners fared? 

Well, Castroneves could have won a second consecutive $20,000 bonus in 2003, but he was second to Team Penske teammate Gil de Ferran. De Ferran retired from IndyCar at the end of the 2003 season so de Ferran did not go for the prize in 2004. Buddy Rice was hurt in practice for the 2005 race meaning for two consecutive years the prize would go uncontested.

Dan Wheldon had a shot at $80,000 in 2006 and Wheldon led 148 laps, but the pit cycle for the final stops combined with Felipe Giaffone having an accident shuffled Wheldon out of the lead and he settled for fourth while Sam Hornish, Jr. beat Marco Andretti on a last lap pass. 

Hornish had four consecutive top ten finishing entering Indianapolis in 2007, and he started fifth, but he never led a lap and finished fourth in the rain-shortened race. Dario Franchitti won that race, but went to NASCAR in 2008, meaning Scott Dixon was going for $140,000 in 2009. 

Like Hornish, Dixon started fifth, but Dixon led 73 laps only for Castroneves to pass him on the restart with around 60 laps remaining. Castroneves had $160,000 on the line as he went for his fourth Indianapolis 500 victory in 2010. Castroneves started on pole position but Franchitti took the lead immediately at the start and led 155 of 200 laps. 

Franchitti's first chance at the prize would be for $180,000 in 2011. He led 51 laps, the second most in that race only behind his Ganassi teammate Dixon, but needing a late splash for fuel, Franchitti finished 12th as Wheldon won for the second time. With Wheldon's death at the end of the 2011 season at Las Vegas, the $200,000 prize would go uncontested in 2012. Franchitti would have a shot at $220,000 in 2013, but had an accident late in the race, though he was never really in contention for victory that year. 

Tony Kanaan went for $240,000 in 2014, but Kanaan ran out of fuel after 66 laps and lost multiple laps after needing a starter replace. Ryan Hunter-Reay struggled with the Honda aero kit in 2015, and Juan Pablo Montoya was the first car out in the 2016 race after an accident in turn two. 

Fresh off winning the 100th Indianapolis 500, Alexander Rossi had a $300,000 bonus on the line in 2017. Rossi led 23 laps, but was shuffled backward during the pit cycles and a few cautions caught out the American, relegating him to seventh. Takuma Sato collided with James Davison after only 47 laps in the 2018 race, costing Sato a shot at $320,000. Will Power spent a good portion of the 2019 race in the top ten, but had nothing for Simon Pagenaud and Rossi in the closing stages with Pagenaud taking victory. 

Pagenaud qualified 25th for the 2020 race and finished two laps down in 22nd. Sato had a chance at $380,000 in 2021, but his only hope relied on going off strategy hoping for a late caution. It did not happen and Sato finished 14th. 

Last year, Castroneves was going for $400,000 if he could pick up his fifth Indianapolis 500 victory the year after he won his fourth "500." The Brazilian started 27th, but moved forward, coming up six spots short of history and the bonus, finishing seventh. 

Since Castroneves won $160,000 for his second consecutive "500" victory in 2002, there have been 16 attempts at someone claiming this bonus. In those 16 attempts, the defending Indianapolis 500 winner has an average finish of 13.81 with four top five finishes, eight top ten finishes and five finishes outside the top twenty. 

We have not seen the defending Indianapolis 500 winner finish in the top ten in consecutive races since 2009 and 2010. The defending Indianapolis 500 winner has not finished in the top five in consecutive years since 2006 and 2007. 

Marcus Ericsson enters this year's Indianapolis 500 with six consecutive top ten finishes dating back to last season. Ericsson has not finished in the top five on an oval since his Indianapolis 500 victory last year.

Who is in Ericsson's Shoes This Year?

While Ericsson has the opportunity to win an additional $420,000 this year, last year the Swede was the sleeper, though a popular one at that. He had spent much of practice at the top of the speed chart and qualified fifth. Though he had shown promise, he was still regularly only the third fastest Ganassi entry in any session. Yet, when the team needed him to step up, Ericsson took command and won Chip Ganassi Racing its first Indianapolis 500 since 2012. 

One year later, who is in a similar position to where Ericsson was?

Last year, Ericsson had the third best average practice position in the weekend leading up to qualifying. His average practice result was fifth and he qualified fifth. In the Monday post-qualifying practice, Ericsson was fifth fastest. 

The two other obvious choices are on the front row. 

This is the fourth consecutive year Rinus VeeKay will start in the top four for the Indianapolis 500. VeeKay has yet to finish in the top five, but he had the third fastest car in Friday pre-qualifying practice. Felix Rosenqvist would do something impressive if he were to win the Indianapolis 500. At no point during practice week was Rosenqvist ranked in the top ten overall.

Since 2012, only three times has an Indianapolis 500 winner not been ranked in the top five at all in any of the pre-qualifying practice sessions. During that time every Indianapolis 500 winner was at least ranked in the top ten once at the end of those practice sessions. The best Rosenqvist was ranked during practice week was 11th. 

Alexander Rossi hasn't quite popped up as the man to beat, but Rossi has shown he is one you should keep an eye on. Rossi had the second quickest qualifying run during Saturday qualifying, second only to Rosenqvist. Rossi was a spot short of making the Fast Six, slotting into seventh on the grid. The 2016 Indianapolis 500 winner has four top five finishes and five top ten finishes in seventh Indianapolis 500 starts. Like Rosenqvist, the practice results were not world-beating for Rossi. The American was 19th, tenth and 16th over the three pre-qualifying practice days. 

Santino Ferrucci had the fifth-best average overall practice position at the end of practice week. Ferrucci was ranked third, 11th and seventh over the three practice days, an average of seventh. Ferrucci has finished in the top ten in all four of his Indianapolis 500 starts. Only two drivers have had five consecutive top ten finishes to start an Indianapolis 500 career: Harry Hartz and Hélio Castroneves. Ferrucci's average finish is 6.75. 

The other driver who could be in Ericsson's shoes is Ericsson himself. Starting tenth, Ericsson had the second best average overall practice position. He was seventh, first and fourth, averaging fourth and behind only Takuma Sato, who went first, seventh, first and had an average of third. Sato will start eighth. 

While Ericsson and Sato have already topped practice, only once since 2012 has an Indianapolis 500 winner topped a pre-qualifying practice session in the year he won. That was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014.

Tony Kanaan

We would be remiss if we did not acknowledge Tony Kanaan this year at the Indianapolis 500. This will be Kanaan's 22nd Indianapolis 500 start, and the intention is this will be the final time Kanaan contests this race. 

Debuting in 2002 with Mo Nunn Racing, Kanaan had already been competing for four years in CART before he made his Indianapolis 500 debut. The Brazilian had one victory to his name. It came in the 1999 Michigan 500 when Kanaan seized an opportunity after Max Papis ran out of fuel on the final lap and Kanaan fended off a charging Juan Pablo Montoya at the line. His best championship finish at that time was ninth.

Kanaan qualified fifth for his Indianapolis 500 debut, between Felipe Giaffone and Eddie Cheever. Kanaan was the top qualifying rookie and his first lap led at the Speedway was lap 64. He led 23 laps before spinning after hitting oil on the track while in first. He would quickly be back at the front, finishing third in 2003 and second in 2004. His pole position in 2005 was the fourth of eight consecutive years Kanaan started on one of the front two rows. While he started at the front, victory was harder to claim. 

In 2010, Kanaan nearly missed the race altogether when he had an accident on Pole Day and another in practice the morning of Bump Day. He did not complete a qualifying run until 5:23 p.m. local time, placing him 30th. He would be knocked down to 32nd but made the race. Returning back to the primary car meant Kanaan would start 33rd.

After eight years with Andretti Autosport, Kanaan made his first start with KV Racing Technology in 2011. He was fourth. The following year, he was third. In his 12th Indianapolis 500, Kanaan started 12th. Again, he found himself at the front and in the closing laps he made an aggressive restart to pass Ryan Hunter-Reay into turn one and soon after the final caution came out to end the race, giving Kanaan a long-awaited victory. 

Since his victory, Kanaan has made six Indianapolis appearances with Chip Ganassi Racing and three with A.J. Foyt Racing. He has since finished in the top five three more times with another two top ten results. This year will be his first Indianapolis 500 with McLaren.

Kanaan is one of 11 drivers with at least 20 Indianapolis 500 starts. He has led in 15 of his 21 starts. Scott Dixon is tied with him for most Indianapolis 500s led. Kanaan's 352 laps led ranks 14th all-time. He has completed 3,751 laps, fourth-most in an Indianapolis 500 career.

Outside of the Indianapolis 500, Kanaan has made 388 IndyCar starts, second all-time. His 17 victories have him tied for 26th all-time with Jimmy Murphy and Danny Sullivan. He won the 2004 Indy Racing League championship, and that season Kanaan completed all 3,305 laps run, the first driver to ever complete every lap in a season. 

Chevrolet vs. Honda

Entering 2023, Honda has won three consecutive Indianapolis 500s. Not only is this Honda's longest streak since engine competition returned in 2012, it is the longest streak of any of the manufacturers during that time. Honda is attempting to become the first manufacturer to win four consecutive Indianapolis 500s with engine competition since Oldsmobile won five consecutive from 1997 through 2001.

During qualifying, Chevrolet appeared to be the make in control. The American manufacturer took eight of the Fast 12 spots with four teams represented in that contingent. It had the fastest two qualifying run at the end of Saturday. Six of the eight Chevrolet teams broke 233 mph averages on Saturday. Outside of the top 12, Chevrolet took five of the next six spots. Everything was looking to be in Chevrolet's favor for its first pole position since 2019. 

Instead, Álex Palou, Chip Ganassi Racing and Honda squeaked out pole position with an average at 234.217 mph. 

The Chevrolet teams are there. Rinus VeeKay, Felix Rosenqvist, Santino Ferrucci and Patricio O'Ward took the next four spots on the grid. Alexander Rossi and Tony Kanaan will flank row three with Benjamin Pedersen and Will Power rounding out the top 12. 

Since returning to IndyCar in 2012, every year Chevrolet won the Indianapolis 500 it had a Chevrolet starting on pole position. In those four Indianapolis 500s, Chevrolet took 13 of 20 possible top five finishing positions. In two of those years, Chevrolet swept the top four. Chevrolet drivers led a combined 687 of a possible 800 laps in those four races. In all four races, Chevrolet drivers combined to lead at least 150 laps. In two of those races, they led exactly 193 of 200 laps. 

Though Chevrolet's victories have all come in years when a Chevrolet has started on pole position, the only time it was the pole-sitter winning the race was the most recent time, Simon Pagenaud in 2019. That year Pagenaud led 116 laps from first. In two of those other three years, the winners started outside the top ten. Tony Kanaan won from 12th in 2013 after Ed Carpenter started first. Carpenter led 37 laps, the most in that race. Two years later, Juan Pablo Montoya won from 15th with nine laps led. Scott Dixon started on pole position and led the most laps (84) before finishing fourth. Three years after that, Will Power won from third on the grid with 59 laps led, while pole-sitter Carpenter was second with 65 laps led, the top two lap leaders in the field. 

While Honda took pole position for this year's race, the only Honda team represented in the Fast 12 was Chip Ganassi Racing. The only other Honda entry starting in the first six rows is Kyle Kirkwood in 15th. Of the 16 Honda entries, 11 start in the final 15 positions. 

Andretti Autosport has one top five finisher in the last four Indianapolis 500s. Meyer Shank Racing has had a top ten finisher three consecutive years at Indianapolis, and it had both its cars finish in the top ten last year. Since 2015, of the 22 Dale Coyne Racing entries at Indianapolis, 18 of those entries have finished outside the top fifteen, 12 of those results were finishes outside the top twenty. The three Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing entries start 30th or worse. 

The Weather Report

Carb Day will be looking at sunny skies with a near zero-percent chance of rain. The high is set for 79º F with an Eastern wind at around 13 miles per hour.

Temperatures will rise slightly over the following two days, but there should be more clouds. Saturday sees nearly the same chance of precipitation but a high inching up to 81º F. Winds will remain from the east at around eight miles per hour. For race day, the high will be about 81º F with winds dropping to about six miles per hour. Chance of precipitation remains low, but will be about 9%. 

Carb Night Classic

The USF Pro 2000 Championship and U.S. F2000 Championship will compete on Friday night at Indianapolis Raceway Park. 

Myles Rowe managed to leave the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course weekend with a 39-point championship lead in USF Pro 2000 over Kiko Porto. Rowe has five top five finishes through five races while Porto was seventh and 11th in the IMS road course races and is now on 100 points. 

Francesco Pizzi is third in the championship on 98 points, but he has finished outside the top five in the last three races. Joel Gransfors' victory in the second IMS road course race has him fourth in the championship on 95 points, four points ahead of Jace Denmark, who has four top five finishes this season. 

Reece Ushijima is sixth on 86 points, four points ahead of Lirim Zendeli while Jonathan Browne is on 80 points in eighth. Salvador de Alba and Jack William Miller round out the top ten in the championship on 77 points and 67 points respectively. 

Last year, Rowe was third in the U.S. F2000 race at IRP while Michael d'Orlando, who is 12th in USF Pro 2000 with only one top ten finish, took the victory.

USF Pro 2000's Freedom 90 will run at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday May 26.

Lochie Hughes has three victories, six podium finishes and his worst finish is seventh in U.S. F2000 this year and the Australian has a 14-point championship lead over Simon Sikes. Sikes has won twice, stood on the podium five times, but his worst finish was 13th in the first IMS road course race two weeks ago. 

Nikita Johnson had three consecutive podium finish on the IMS road course and Johnson is third on 144 points, 41 points off Hughes. Evagoras Papasavvas did not finish in the top five at IMS, but he is still fourth in the championship on 108 points. 

Sam Corry took a surprise victory in the first race at the IMS road course and it has lifted Corry up to fifth on 94 points, two ahead of Mac Clark. Jorge Garciarce is seventh on 85 points. Danny Dyszelski, Chase Gardner and Jacob Douglas round out the championship top ten. 

The Freedom 75 will take place at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday May 26.

Fast Facts

This will be the eighth IndyCar race to take place on May 28 and the first since Takuma Sato won the 101st Indianapolis 500 in 2017. 

This will be the seventh Indianapolis 500 to take place on May 28. Six different teams have won the previous six Indianapolis 500s on May 28. 

Those teams are Chaparral Racing (1978), Patrick Racing (1989), Team Green (1995), Chip Ganassi Racing (2000), Team Penske (2006) and Andretti Autosport (2017).

This will be the 176th 500-mile race in IndyCar history.

The United States has produced the most 500-mile race winners with 66. Brazil and the United Kingdom has each produced seven 500-mile race winners. Canada has had four, Italy and France have each had three winners. Sweden has two winners. The Netherlands, Mexico, Colombia, New Zealand, Australia and Japan have each produced one winner. 

Chevrolet has won 12 of 21 500-mile races since 2012. 

Eight of the last 12 Indianapolis 500s have been completed in under three hours. Only five of the first 87 Indianapolis 500s that went the distance were completed in under three hours.

This year's grid features...

13 Americans...

Three Britons...

Two Swedes...

Two New Zealanders...

Two Brazilians...

Two Frenchmen...

Two Danes...

A Spaniard...

A Dutchman...

A Mexican...

A Japanese...

An Australian...

A Canadian and...

An Argentine.

Ed Carpenter, Josef Newgarden, Jack Harvey or Colton Herta could become the first driver to win the Freedom 100 and the Indianapolis 500.

Nine drivers have won on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. They are Alex Lloyd, Jack Harvey, Dean Stoneman, Colton Herta, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon, Josef Newgarden and Alexander Rossi.

The drivers who could become the tenth driver to win on both the oval and road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend are Marco Andretti, Patricio O'Ward, Rinus VeeKay, David Malukas, Kyle Kirkwood and Álex Palou.

Josef Newgarden, Rinus VeeKay, Colton Herta or Álex Palou could join Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon and Alexander Rossi as the only drivers to win an IndyCar race on the IMS oval and road course. 

The average starting position for an Indianapolis 500 winner is 7.415 with a median of 4.5.

Last year, Marcus Ericsson became the first winner to start fifth since Buddy Lazier in 1996.

Six consecutive Indianapolis 500s have been won from one of the first three rows, the longest streak since six consecutive winners from 2006 through 2011.

The average number of lead changes in the Indianapolis 500 is 14.0471 with a median of ten. 

In the DW12-era, the average number of lead changes in the Indianapolis 500 is 37.727 with a median of 35. 

The driver who led the most laps has won only two of the last 12 Indianapolis 500s, Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014 and Simon Pagenaud in 2019. 

The average number of cautions in the Indianapolis 500 is 7.625 with a median of seven. The average number of caution laps is 43.645 with a median of 42.5.

Five of the six cautions in last year’s race were for accidents in turn two. 

In the last 12 Indianapolis 500s, eight races have had more than five cautions.

This will be the 74th Indianapolis 500 victory for Firestone. 

This will be the 23rd Indianapolis 500 victory for Dallara, extending Dallara's record for most Indianapolis 500 victories for a chassis manufacturer.

If Honda wins the race, it will be the manufacturer's 16th Indianapolis 500 victory. Honda is currently second all-time in victories for engine manufacturers, 12 victories behind Offenhauser's 27. 

If Chevrolet wins the race, it will tie Miller for third all-time on 12 Indianapolis 500 victories. 

Predictions

A little unsung this year, Alexander Rossi puts McLaren on top and gets his second Indianapolis 500 victory in his first year driving for McLaren. Scott Dixon does not have a speeding penalty. Álex Palou leads fewer than 150 miles. Andretti Autosport will have more top ten finishers than A.J. Foyt Racing. Graham Rahal climbs up at least 15 positions and finish ahead of all three Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing cars. RLLR does have at least two cars finish, but neither will finish on the lead lap. Conor Daly will not finish sixth or better. Tony Kanaan will finish ahead of Hélio Castroneves. There will be fewer than four cautions for incidents in turn two. The Rookie of the Year will be Agustín Canapino. Sleeper: Takuma Sato. 

Musings From the Weekend: Hypocrisy

Here is a rundown of what got me thinking...

Flooding cancelled the Formula One race from Imola. Yuki Tsunoda did his part helping clean up in the aftermath. A future teammate of Tsunoda's was a winner. Tomoki Nojiri missed the Super Formula race due to a collapsed lung. Ferrari stunned the Germans. Wayne Taylor Racing with Andretti Autosport will run a second Acura LMDh car next year. Shane van Gisbergen is coming to America. Many people were out in Speedway, Indiana. Álex Palou won pole position for the 107th Indianapolis 500. Excitement is there, but people are lying to themselves, and that is on my mind.

Hypocrisy

This month started with the second Miami Grand Prix for Formula One on the temporary course set up around Hard Rock Stadium, home of the Miami Dolphins. Year one was a success. High attendance, good ratings, plenty of buzz. Year two was more evenkeel. 

Announced attendance was higher than the 2022 race, but in the buildup to the event there were numerous stories about ticket values decreasing on the secondary market and sellers having difficulty offloading tickets. Meanwhile, the ABC television rating was down after what was a less than memorable grand prix.

Too many people took joy from such an occasion. 

Formula One has been on an upward trajectory in the United States since the start of 2020. More people are tuning in and know the drivers better than ever before. Team principals are known. Formula One teams are being used in American commercials. There is an American driver full-time for the first time since 2006. It is a grand time for Formula One in the United States. Not everyone is thrilled. 

Call it hypocrisy. Call it jealousy. This new found Formula One fame is not being universally celebrated in this country even if this is what we always dreamed. People care. People with no previous interest in motorsports care. That is what every series wants. Why is it so divisive? 

Be careful of what you wish for. Everyone wants to be bigger, but no one is quite sure what bigger will be. In all likelihood, bigger will mean different. With Formula One, bigger means people consuming Formula One differently, being interested in different aspects of the series. It isn't so much about the racing, what is seen on-track, but it is about the off-track passion and glitz of the series. Everyone loves shiny things. 

Outside of the Formula One bubble, those with disdain, admit it is envy. Formula One ballooned in no time at all. It went from one grand prix with a respectable crowd to three grand prix, one of which is setting records and the other two are at least going to make a pretty penny. All three American grand prix will likely draw over 90,000 spectators on race day. Some domestic series don't even draw three races with 90,000 spectators. 

The growth has nothing to do with the actual racing, and that is ok, but comparing total passes, number of winners, the championship picture and accessibility is a losing battle. People are not tuning in for those things. They made a connection with Formula One, racing be damned, and that is why they are interested. 

Admit it, if IndyCar was on the verge of having a street race in Las Vegas where tickets would be going for thousands of dollars and over 300,000 spectators would attend over three days, IndyCar fans would be stoked. They could make a profit on flipping tickets for once. 

The same audience Formula One attracted is what IndyCar, NASCAR, everyone else is going for. Formula One will always have the advantage of being something foreign. It isn't homegrown, an import. There is a novelty to it. Sometimes being the home team has its disadvantages. 

Prices are out of reach, but that is the point. The demand is there and people want to feel exclusive. They want something that feels valuable. They can drop $40 or $80 any weekend. But $600? $1,250? $3,000? That is a one-time thing, a destination weekend. The beauty about averages is that is the middle. Sometimes you have to aim at the top. Average is good. Every now and then you chase a big fish. There is a little more meat on those bones. 

Gloating isn't going to work turning people into IndyCar. Diminishing the interest someone has found in Formula One isn't going to work either. Let those who enjoy Formula One, regardless of when they started watching or how they got interested, enjoy it. Telling them off for spending hundreds on merchandise or perhaps thousands of dollars for tickets or hawking passing numbers isn't going to make them watch IndyCar. If anything, it is only going to turn them off. I don't know many times shame has worked in attracting an audience. It usually works the opposite way. Nobody wants to hangout with assholes. 

If roles were reversed, and IndyCar was on a three-year upward swing, no one in IndyCar would be talking about increases in attendance and television rating being a bad thing, but this is what growth looks like. If IndyCar grows in any way, it will look like what Formula One is going through, not necessarily at the same level, but it will be people who aren't interested in motorsports and are not necessarily going to read Racer Magazine or tune into Trackside with Curt Cavin and Kevin Lee or care about how many days of practice there are for the Indianapolis 500. It is going to be people who don't know or really care about the same things or care with the same passion. That doesn't make their presence or their views less valuable. 

Someone who is tuning in for the first time isn't going to know much, let alone everything, and in motorsports too often we use knowledge as a measuring stick of fandom. This time of the year might bring out the worst in people. Competition for "Who's the biggest Indianapolis 500 fan?" comes down to whether or not someone remembers how many T-cars attempted a qualifying run for the 1987 race. It is cool to know, but it is also ok not to know it. Nobody new is going to know what a "T-car" is, and it hasn't been valuable information in over ten years. It is also ok if they do not care to learn about it either. 

We must be comfortable with that. Some people will only want to watch the races. They aren't going to eat, sleep and breathe motorsports. They will like one series and not spend every Sunday watching different series from around the globe, two wheels and four. They aren't going to listen to podcasts or have any interest in a race that occurred 25 years before they were born. That is true in all sports. There are plenty people who watch football, play fantasy football but don't care about the Johnny Unitas, Hank Stram nor the '85 Bears. We should be ok with different levels of fandom in a motorsports series. That is ultimately the sign of a healthy series and really any sport.  

I am not one to care about television ratings too much. I think too much is read into them and nine times out of ten people are not viewing them in proper context, but while Formula One still drew nearly two million viewers, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis dropped over 200,000 viewers from 2022 to 2023, and was hovering above 700,000 viewers. You can knock a series all you want but when it is doubling your audience size by drawing the people you ultimately need to be watching, you should probably quiet down. 

Winners From the Weekend

You know about Álex Palou, but did you know...

Kyle Larson won the NASCAR All-Star Race from North Wilkesboro, his third All-Star Race victory. Kyle Larson also won the Truck race, his third career Truck victory and his first since 2016.

The #30 Frikadelli Racing Team Ferrari of Earl Bamber, Nicky Catsburg, David Pittard and Felipe Fernandez Laser won the 24 Hours Nürburgring.

Liam Lawson won the Super Formula race from Autopolis, his second victory of the season.

Will Brown (race one and three) and Broc Feeney (race two) split the Supercars races from Symmons Plains.

The #120 Wright Motorsports Porsche of Adam Adelson and Elliott Skeen and the #93 Racers Edge Motorsports Acura of Ashton Harrison and Mario Farnbacher split the GT World Challenge America races from Austin. The #51 Auto Technic Racing BMW of Zac Anderson and JCD Dubets and the #2 Flying Lizard Motorsports Aston Martin of Jason Bell and Michael Cooper split the GT4 America races. George Kurtz and Jason Daskalos split the GT America races.

Coming Up This Weekend

The 107th Indianapolis 500.

The 80th Monaco Grand Prix.

The 64th Coca-Cola 600.

Deutsche Tourenwagen Masters has buried its season opener at Oschersleben, the first visit to the track since 2015.

First Impressions: 107th Indianapolis 500 Sunday Qualifying

1. For the last three years, Álex Palou has put himself at the top of IndyCar's pecking order, and in his fourth Indianapolis 500 appearance, Palou took pole position with a four-lap average of 234.217 mph, the fastest pole position run in the event's 107-year history. 

Palou is already a champion. He won the most recent race. Pole position is just another feather in his cap, and his car looks locked in like few others to take the track this week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. In the previous two races, Palou has been at the front. Second in 2021 in his sophomore run, and he led many laps early before needing an emergency pit stop for fuel knock him out of the front positions last year. He still clawed his way back to a top ten finish, but victory was gone before he had even reached halfway. 

Chip Ganassi Racing has had the best car at Indianapolis in possibly the last three Indianapolis 500s. The team isn't going to dip from its qualifying form in a week. This group is going to be strong, but there will be plenty of people aiming to knock Palou off. 

This is a strange circumstance for Palou. Since last July, we know the displeasure Palou had being retained for the 2023 season with Ganassi, and Palou has his eyes set on McLaren. Palou leads the championship. He is on pole position for the Indianapolis 500. And yet, in four months, we all expect Palou announcing he will be leaving to join a rival. 

Ganassi and Palou could litter the record book for the next ten to 15 years, and yet, this could be the beginning of the end of a very successful partnership.

2. The difference between pole position for Palou and send starting position for Rinus VeeKay was 0.040 seconds. That is it. It was 0.040 seconds over ten miles. I am not sure where you can try and looking for such an improvement. That is the difference of a bead of sweat, a tenth of degree Fahrenheit in the track, the 1/64 of an inch of a decal adding drag. VeeKay just fell short, but again he was impressive in qualifications. 

Four Indianapolis 500 appearances and VeeKay has never started worse than fourth. This will be his third front row start. The race form hasn't been there, at least not over a full 500 miles, but VeeKay is going to be in the mix and this could be his year.

3. Unheralded, Felix Rosenqvist has been the best McLaren driver all weekend, and he was 0.0676 seconds short of pole position. Rosenqvist had one of the best balanced car throughout qualifying. This is probably the best Rosenqvist has driven in IndyCar, and he was unsung last year in the "500." He was in Patricio O'Ward's tire tracks for nearly the entire race and was in the picture for victory. He starts at the front this year and I imagine he will be up there for a good portion of the race.

4. Nobody had Santino Ferrucci qualifying fourth at 233.661 mph. Nobody! Ferrucci has been tremendous at Indianapolis over his first four starts. He hasn't put a wheel wrong in a race, and he only has one incident of note in practice. A.J. Foyt Racing hasn't been close really since Kenny Bräck won in 1999. This year, there wasn't any reason to think Ferrucci could make the top 12, let alone end up fourth. Middle of the field would have been respectable. This went above and beyond expectations. 

Ferrucci is already good in the race, and he has done it with cars that have never qualified in the top ten. This car will be starting at the front. Most or the work is already done. It is a different race at the front, not just for the driver but the crew. Everyone around Ferrucci and Foyt have been here before. How does this pairing handle it?

5. It is difficult to be disappointed in qualifying fifth for the Indianapolis 500, but Patricio O'Ward likely expected better. O'Ward was still great, and he did nothing wrong. Marcus Ericsson won this race last year from fifth. It can be done. I think O'Ward will be focused on race day. Like Palou, O'Ward feels he was the man to beat the last two years. He is knows what he needs to do and what changes he needs to make to win this race. This might not have been the qualifying run he wanted, but 99.9% of qualifying runs are forgotten. Nobody forgets the Indianapolis 500 winner.

6. The pole position streak ends at two for Scott Dixon, but you know what? Pole position didn't work out the last two years. Sixth is a great place to start. Dixon can sit in line and save fuel. He can pace himself and use it to his advantage. The last thing the field needs to do is given Scott Dixon any advantage. Dixon will focus on hitting his marks over the first 120 laps, 300 miles. If he is in the top five at that point, the race just might be in his hands. You can never count out Scott Dixon. This year, that feels especially true. 

7. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing was likely going to see one of its cars miss the race when it took three of the four spots in the last chance qualifying session. RLLR would have had to be perfect, three-for-three, to avoid having a car miss the race. Sure enough, in the final minutes, it was Graham Rahal in 33rd at 229.159 mph, on the bubble and Jack Harvey on the outside. 

With five minutes to go, it looked like Harvey was out after his second qualifying run fell short. Three minutes later, Harvey was back on the track, rolling the dice because sitting still wasn't going to get him in the race. He mind as well going down swinging to the very last seconds. 

What transpired were the greatest ten miles of Harvey's career.

Lap one: 229.435 mph

Lap two: 229.092 mph

Lap three: 229.176 mph

Lap four: 228.971 mph

Average: 229.166 mph

Logic, history, science was telling us Harvey's Hail Mary would come up short. He had just ran a 228.929 mph average moments before. He needed to find nearly a quarter of a mile per hour over ten miles to make the race. The tires were worn, the engine was scorching, and Harvey's choice was only to power through it. 

The pick up from lap two to three gave him life. How many qualifying runs did we see people gain from lap two to three this weekend? It couldn't be many. It might be one of just a handful of runs to see such a gain, and yet when Harvey needed it most it happened.

For the last two seasons, Harvey has been scorn after lackluster results. A few years ago, he was impressive at Meyer Shank Racing, taking a single-car team and putting it on the podium against the big boys. A driver doesn't accidentally do that, but Harvey could not recreate that success at RLLR, and frequently he was the worst of the three finishers. Results were so bad that Harvey was moved from the Hy-Vee sponsored #45 Honda to the #30 Honda entry, which has a greater rotation of sponsors. 

Missing this race would have been devastating for Harvey's career. The entire start of this season has not been good for the Englishman. It would have been very easy for the team to make a switch ahead of Detroit if Harvey did not make the Indianapolis 500. With possibly his career on the line, at least in the short term, Harvey climbed out of the grave and will take 33rd on the starting grid next Sunday.

8. Falling six feet into the ground will be the 6' 2" Graham Rahal.

Many questions were already being asked ahead of qualifying. About Graham Rahal's future with his father's team, about this team's ability. At the end of yesterday, it felt like we were already getting some answers. Today... well, it is easy to read that change is upon the RLLR team. Any time a team misses the Indianapolis 500, change comes. 

Schmidt Peterson Motorsports canned Leena Gabe after James Hinchcliffe missed in 2018. McLaren booted Bob Fernley after Fernando Alonso missed in 2019, and Alonso missing completely reshuffled McLaren's IndyCar entry. Max Chilton stepped away from ovals at Carlin after missing in 2019. RLLR is no different. 

The heads will roll tomorrow. The tears flowed today. 

Long term, father and son will have plenty of difficult discussions. I bet Graham doesn't want to leave, but at 34 years old he doesn't want to spend the rest of his 30s struggling just to be competitive. He can win races. It has been awhile but he still believes in himself. He had one great championship effort, and he probably believes he can fight for it again. But can that happen at RLLR?

The organization has been at the doorstep for quite sometime. As it has grown, it has not gotten closer to the mountaintop. For Rahal the driver, it could be time to try elsewhere. He has one last chance to roll the dice. After today, it might be easier to let go. 

9. We cannot move on without mentioning Christian Lundgaard and Sting Ray Robb, the two other drivers that will occupy row 11. Lundgaard was probably closer to Robb than expected, but Lundgaard has been the best RLLR car all week, best RLLR car all month going back to the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Lundgaard handled the pressure wonderfully. 

Robb probably didn't expect to be this close to missing it. The entire Coyne likely didn't expect this. He is a rookie. Coyne has gone through a number of changes. They battle through it and get to race in the Indianapolis 500. Take the win. 

10. We return to the Fast 12 portion of the program. Alexander Rossi was one massive lift into turn three on his final lap from advancing to the Fast 6. That was the difference between putting himself and putting Patricio O'Ward on the bubble. Rossi scrubbed off a lot of speed on his qualifying run today. These were much different conditions than when he qualified on Saturday. 

The car looks competitive. He might be the third best McLaren starter, but I expect Rossi to be at the front and mixing it at the front all race long. He will be going toe-to-toe with at least one if not two or all three of his teammates. 

11. Takuma Sato was on the ragged edge over the last few days, and Sato could put down explosive single laps, but struggled to carry the pace over four laps. On Sunday, all it could get him was eighth. Not bad, but man it felt like Sato was going to be the man to beat for pole position. Tony Kanaan was the slowest of the four McLaren drivers all week, but he still had pace in the car. I think ninth was the best Kanaan was going to be hoping for today.

12. Marcus Ericsson will defend his Indianapolis 500 victory from tenth. As we have seen in most Honda teams, good opening laps, but the pace could not carry over an entire run for Ericsson. Nobody thought Benjamin Pedersen would be in the Fast 12, so 11th is more than a wonderful result from. Qualifying is one thing and Pedersen had terrific pace on his own, but in a week's time he will be in the thick of the pack, a place he has never been before. That is my concern heading into next week.

13. Will Power was 12th on Saturday and 12th on Sunday. It was surprising none of the Team Penske cars were competing for pole position. It felt during practice this group was going to be contending at the top and it didn't quite pan out. This feels a lot like the last two years where Penske didn't look daunting in practice and in those races Penske wasn't really a factor. It seems odd thinking that will be the case for a third consecutive year, but a week away from the "500" and I don't know if anyone is considering Penske an obstacle to victory.

14. This final day qualifying format is agonizing. I liked that the Fast 12 and Fast 6 were split with the last chance qualifying in the middle, but to go from bumping and Graham Rahal missing to the first Fast 6 car taking to the track moments later, you really do not get a chance to process what the hell just happened. 

It was worse in 2019. I don't think people realized Sébastien Bourdais was on track for the Fast Nine session because everyone was still trying to speak to Kyle Kaiser and find Fernando Alonso. 

There was a lot of dead time between the Fast 12 ending and the last chance qualifying beginning. I almost think an adjustment could be to have last chance qualifying start 15 minutes after the Fast 12 round ends and have that run for an hour and then 30 minutes later start the Fast 6. 

In theory, start the Fast 12 at 2:00 p.m., have the last chance qualifying begin at 3:30 p.m. and then at 5:00 p.m. begin the Fast 6. 

Also, can we just allow more fans and cooling devices for these teams? If all these teams have them then no one has an advantage. The last chance qualifying session was about 35 minutes of guys sitting around because nobody is allow to properly cool the cars or do extensive work on the cars, and the only team that is going to do extensive work is the team out of the field because that team has no time to lose, only time to gain. 

The way the last chance qualifying session is set up now is for everyone to have their one run and then have the one team on the outside work and see if it can get in with the cars in the field handcuffed to counter any better run. 

I don't know if we go back to the last chance qualifying just being one attempt and get rid of the clock. If we had done that, Jack Harvey isn't in this race, but if the last chance qualifying session had been an hour in 2019, it is likely Fernando Alonso is in the race, Kyle Kaiser is not and who knows if Juncos Hollinger Racing exists today if that is the case.

Let's wait and see how they tweak qualifying next year. 

15. The field is set. We can have a breather. Practice tomorrow and then some rest, but the next week is still going to be hectic.

First Impressions: 107th Indianapolis 500 Saturday Qualifying

1. Nearly seven-dozen qualifying attempts were made on the first day of qualifications for the 107th Indianapolis 500, a near non-stop process with cars attempting to crack the top 12 to make a run for pole position tomorrow or crack the top 30 to avoid being in the last chance qualifying session and facing being bumped out of the field for The Greatest Spectacle in Racing. 

Three years after winning the Indianapolis 500, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing will have three of four participants as all three full-time drivers, Christian Lundgaard, Jack Harvey and Graham Rahal, did not make the top 30 along with Dale Coyne Racing's Sting Ray Robb. 

I wish we could say this was a surprise, but Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing's qualifying woes date back to last year. Lundgaard and Harvey were on the last row last year. Rahal was only 21st. The team looked atrocious at Texas last year and the team returned worse this April. We knew this was going to be a difficult Indianapolis 500 qualifying for RLLR for quite some time. I don't think any of us imagined it would be this difficult. 

Entering today there was a strong rumbling that all four last chance qualifying cars would be RLLR entries. Katherine Legge pulled off the best qualifying run of the day for RLLR at 231.070 mph over four laps. Lundgaard was the only other RLLR car to break the 231-mph bracket at 231.056 mph. During the first run through the qualifying line, it wasn't clear any of the RLLR cars would break 231 mph. If that was the case, the rest of the field, at least those that were above 231 mph had to be feeling settled.

Robb had not shown great pace all week in practice, but he was never on the very bottom and was avoiding the bottom four, but he was far from being seen as a lock for the top 30. The car never looked to have it, and up until about 13 minutes left in this qualifying session, it looked like neither Dale Coyne Racing car was going to make the top 30. 

Four full-time drivers will be fighting for the final spots on the grid. One will go home and have a large, black cloud hanging over the rest of his season.

2. Where do we go from here? 

While none of these four made the top 30, they all made qualifying runs and all it will take to make the Indianapolis 500 is beating one car in a one-hour session. Lundgaard did break the 231-mph average, the only of the four to do it. Robb was at least comfortably in the 230-mph range. Harvey struggled to break 230 mph and Rahal looks to be the worst of the four and never cracked a 230 mph average. 

Thirty years after his father Bobby missed the Indianapolis 500 despite being the defending IndyCar champion, Graham Rahal looks endangered of joining a group with his father that he likely never dreamt of joining.

3. This is an odd time for the Rahals and the Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing organization. Earlier this week, Graham Rahal came out and said he would be looking at rides elsewhere if RLLR's form does not improve. Rahal is in a contract year and he has been with the family team for 11 seasons. 

It has been nearly six years since Rahal's most recent victory, but he has been a regular top ten driver. The last season and change is where the most hardship has been. Rahal is 34 years old, far from the twilight of his career. He wants to win. The results have been mostly good and he believes in himself, but over the last few years, RLLR has taken a step back. Rahal isn't at the bottom because of his ability. His other two full-time teammates are in the same boat as he is and Katherine Legge only made it through by the skin of her teeth. 

The organization is treading water. It can be a race winner. It has shown promise, see last week at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but it needs to be more than two or three strong races a year. Regardless of whether or not Rahal pulls through and makes the field of 33, the future may have already been decided this weekend. 

4. At the other end of the timesheet, Arrow McLaren led the way. Felix Rosenqvist had the top qualifying average of 233.947 mph on his second run coming over four and a half hours after his first run through the qualifying. Rosenqvist's first run was a touch above 233 mph. Alexander Rossi led most of the day after running a 233.528 mph average on his first qualifying run. Tony Kanaan leaped into the top 12 late in the day with a four-lap average of 233.347 mph, sixth overall, and Patricio O'Ward was eighth at 233.252 mph.

Any of these four cars could win pole position. O'Ward had a tough draw being 22nd in the qualifying line. He never experienced the ideal conditions but still had the pace. Everyone will be competing in the heat tomorrow in the Fast 12. Rossi made one run early in the day. Rosenqvist found speed. If O'Ward and the team doesn't overthink it, he will be looking good for pole position. He does have a tough battle within his own team let alone with the eight other competitors.

5. The only Honda team is Chip Ganassi Racing. Álex Palou was ranked third at the end of Saturday at 233.398 mph with Scott Dixon at 233.375 mph in fifth. Takuma Sato went 233.322 in seventh and Marcus Ericsson took tenth at 233.030 mph. 

Sato went out late on his first run. Dixon showed good first lap speed, but like most of the Honda teams, he lost a lot of speed over four laps. Palou was near identical to Dixon. Ericsson was quiet. He was clinging onto a top 12 spot but never looked in danger of being bumped. He found additional speed on a later attempt, but really topped out. 

The Ganassi group is good but it didn't seem like the might was there to take pole position in 2023.

6. The lone non-McLaren/Ganassi driver in the top eight was Rinus VeeKay in fourth at 233.395 mph. VeeKay again mastered Indianapolis. He has never started worse than fourth here. Ed Carpenter Racing has a history of good qualifying cars, but the team has not been as pinpoint quick as it has been in the past. VeeKay was the only ECR car to make the Fast 12. Last year, VeeKay topped Saturday and fell to second. I don't think he will find speed and take pole position. McLaren looks unbreakable. It will require something special, but maybe that is what ECR has in store for us.

7. One unexpected Fast 12 participant? Sure, we could all have imagined that. Two, and both being A.J. Foyt Racing entries? That was stunning today. Santino Ferrucci had a few good laps yesterday, but we didn't see him put together a four-lap run that suggested he would make the top 12 let alone average above 233 mph, but he was ninth at 233.147 mph. 

Benjamin Pedersen? He was impressive by Benjamin Pedersen standards. Anything in the top half of the field was going to get our attention for Pedersen. He hasn't been close to impressive this season. He was good in practice but there was never any indication he would be fighting for the top 12 let alone he would be 11th at 232.739 mph. Like Ferrucci, he had a few good laps but we never saw a run that would suggest he would be qualifying Sunday. It is staggering both Foyt cars made it.

8. Both Foyt cars made it and the top Team Penske qualifier was Will Power in 12th, only 0.020 mph off Pedersen over four laps. Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden might have overplayed their hand after the draw. They were 32nd and 34th in line. Both cars waved their spot in line to wait for better conditions only to go out about 20 minutes later than they would have gone out because the likes of Palou had strong times but McLaughlin and Newgarden couldn't match their practice pace. 

Power and Newgarden both broke 233-mph four-lap averages in Friday practice. Neither came close to that today. It was kind of stunning to see. 

9. Ed Carpenter was 13th, 0.03 seconds off making the second round. Conor Daly was frustrated and only ended up 16th. Credit to McLaren and Foyt for raising its game. I don't think ECR is that far off. I think it was just that tough to make the Fast 12 this year.

10. Andretti Autosport's top qualifier is Kyle Kirkwood in 15th at 232.662 mph and none of its five cars came close to the Fast 12. The team looked promising to get at least one car through to Sunday. I thought Colton Herta would benefit from being the second car on track but his first run was not close. It felt like 232 mph was going to be the minimum to make the top 12 today. Herta went 231.951 mph and a 232.719 mph was necessary to make the top 12. 

I don't know where Andretti has gone. It has really taken a step back almost every year since the universal aero kit was introduced. Herta ended up 21st, Romain Grosjean was 19th. Marco Andretti was angry in 24th and Devlin DeFrancesco was good enough in 26th. I don't see any of these cars having the race pace to climb forward and really compete for victory. A top ten might be the best this team can do in a week's time.

11. Ryan Hunter-Reay returned to Indianapolis after a year away and qualified 18th for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. That appeared to be where Hunter-Reay would be all week. This is a case where it is a good thing to live up to expectations. Stefan Wilson was 25th in the sister D&R car, about what you want from a one-off driver. 

12. Meyer Shank Racing has Hélio Castroneves and Simon Pagenaud 20th and 22nd respectively. Castroneves had two moments on his first qualifying run. It was a little concerning but Castroneves was dialed in for the second run and had no concerns of making the race.

13. David Malukas pulled out a seismic qualifying run in the final minutes of today's session. I had my concerns about Robb entering today, and Malukas wasn't much better, but I didn't expect both Coyne cars to be in danger of missing the top 30. Malukas found the speed on his final run to end up 23rd. I don't know what took the team that long to find that speed. Malukas was unfazed through it all and nailed the run without much wiggle room. 

14. Juncos Hollinger Racing had its cars end up 27th and 28th, but I bet that group is thrilled it doesn't have to take to the track on Sunday. Agustín Canapino hasn't put a wheel wrong all week. Canapino thought he left some time on the table, but it never felt he was at risk of not making the top 30. Callum Ilott was shaken for the last 72 hours. The team flipped the spare car around to be ready for today. Ilott was able to be in qualifying line at his schedule spot, the first run didn't go well, but it built confidence and he wound up making it into the top 30 when that was doubtful for the entire week. Great work to them. 

15. Two years ago, R.C. Enerson was one of two drivers bumped from the Indianapolis 500 and he wasn't close driving for the makeshift Top Gun Racing. With Abel Motorsports from Indy Lights running this program, Enerson made it on his first qualifying run at 231.129 mph. It was probably hairy in the final 20 minutes when Malukas leaped to 23rd and Robb, Harvey and Lundgaard were in line for another qualifying run, but Enerson could not have asked for a much better day. 

Enerson never looked in trouble. The car was never out of his control. He broke 231 mph on his first run. With the issues RLLR was having, Enerson had nothing really to sweat about. He had the speed and others didn't. That is a weird thing to say considering this is a team in its first IndyCar outing with a driver who has never started an IndyCar race on an oval, hasn't started any IndyCar race in nearly two years and the other organization has won the Indianapolis 500 twice, including two years. 

This effort, and Katherine Legge making the top 30 as well, has me thinking off all the drivers out there that cannot get this break and have a shot at Indianapolis. Enerson isn't doing this with a golden opportunity. He is scrapping together what he can to heave up a Hail Mary, but the prayer has been answered and he will be in the 107th Indianapolis 500. What about all those other drivers just looking for an answer?

Kyle Kaiser hasn't done anything since the 2019 Indianapolis 500 when he and Juncos Racing bumped McLaren and Fernando Alonso out of the race. Spencer Pigot had the fastest qualifying run during Saturday qualifying in 2019 at 230.083 mph, and four years later Pigot is Enerson's turn one spotter and hasn't run an IndyCar in nearly three years. J.R. Hildebrand doesn't have a ride this year for the first time since 2010. Oliver Askew does more commentating that racing now. Carlos Muñoz has five top ten finishes in six Indianapolis 500 starts and he has completed all 1,200 laps in those six races. Linus Lundqvist is looking for his first shot. 

I wish there was a support series for all these drivers between full-time IndyCar rides and done with Indy Lights where they can compete regularly and be in sight for the fans, teams and sponsors. We could easily have 15 to 20 drivers competing and it would be for the better. 

There are plenty of drivers who have been around IndyCar that just want one shot, who only need one shot, but there isn't enough room for everybody. It isn't practical for there to be 40 to 45 entries each year in the month of May, but the drivers are there. We have plenty of drivers. We are lacking everything else and it costs too much to be a one-off that doesn't make the race. We must celebrate Enerson because he represents far more than himself. 

16. We have been doing this Bump Day/Pole Day combination for a few years now, and every time it happens it is a flood of emotions. On one end, you have a handful of teams who cannot breathe and are dreading the worst. Once that is settle and tears of relief are mixing with tears of agony, it immediately flips to being about pole position and someone trying to run faster than they have ever run before. Today was exhausting enough. Tomorrow, though only 16 cars, less than half the field, will be on track, it will only be more draining.

107th Indianapolis 500 Qualifying Preview

Three practice days are in the books and after getting through the week without many incidents, all eyes turn to qualifying for the 107th Indianapolis 500. 

There was plenty of speed displayed during practice, and Fast Friday was an eye-opener as we are looking at what should be another record-setting grid in terms of average pace. The 230-mph range was no longer reserved for the top teams. Everybody is playing in that neighborhood, and while only one car will fail to qualify, every team must be on their game to make this field. 

When it comes to the Fast 12, it feels like 20 entries have a legitimate case for advancing to Sunday. As for the last chance qualifying session, there are about a half-dozen entries that would not surprise you having to sweat out Sunday afternoon, but it is Indianapolis, and just when we think everything is settled, a surprise has a funny way of sneaking up on us. 

What will it take to win pole position?

Speeds were massive on Fast Friday. The best lap was run at 234.753 mph at the hands of Takuma Sato, over 7/10ths of a mile per hour faster than Scott Dixon's pole position average speed last year. Of course, a qualifying run take places over four laps and not one, but last year's top speed in Friday practice was 232.789 mph, also at the hands of Takuma Sato. 

Since 2012, the introduction of the DW12 chassis, the fastest qualifying speed has increased by 7.562 mph, up from Ryan Briscoe's pole position at 226.484 mph to Dixon's 234.046 mph last year. 

Not counting 2015 when the extra 100 kPA qualifying boost was not run, the top qualifying speed has increased by about 0.3675% over each year. Last year, Dixon's pole position speed saw a 0.9567% increase from the fastest qualifying run in 2021. 

Based on the average increase in the DW12-era, we should be projected a fastest qualifying run around 234.906 mph. From 2021 to 2022, the fastest qualifying average went from 231.828 mph to 234.046 mph, a 0.9567% increase. If that increase was repeated in 2023, the fastest qualifying run will be around 236.285 mph, or 0.701 mph off Arie Luyendyk’s track record average of 236.986 mph. 

Last year was the first time the fastest qualifying run was faster than the fastest practice lap run earlier in the week. 

Who is in play for the Fast 12? 

In a word, everyone, or at least more than expected. The usual names are in the mix. 

Chip Ganassi Racing has been regularly at the top of the timesheet. On the average overall practice result, Ganassi drivers ranked first (Takuma Sato), second (Marcus Ericsson), third (Scott Dixon) and sixth (Álex Palou). Sato topped two of the three practice days and Ericsson topped the other. Dixon, who is attempting to become the first driver to win three consecutive Indianapolis 500 pole positions, was second overall each of the first two days. Sato and Ericsson had the two fastest four-lap averages in Friday practice at 233.413 mph and 233.113 mph respectively. Dixon and Palou were ranked tenth and 11th respectively in that over four laps.

Team Penske showed great speed on Friday. Josef Newgarden had the third fastest four-lap average on Friday while Will Power was fourth. The top four all averaged over 233 mph over their mock qualifying run. Scott McLaughlin ranked 12th in that category. 

Rinus VeeKay has been quick all week. VeeKay had the fastest no tow lap on Wednesday and ranked in the top six all three days. Conor Daly and Ed Carpenter both showed good one-lap pace, but their four-lap averages were both outside the top fifteen on Friday.

Andretti Autosport showed promise, but is far from a lock in the top 12. Colton Herta had a four-lap average good enough for sixth, and Kyle Kirkwood was the top Andretti driver for most of the afternoon but ended eighth in the four-lap average category. Romain Grosjean was 14th. 

Arrow McLaren should put one, if not at least two drivers into the Fast 12, but McLaren is in the same boat as Andretti. Felix Rosenqvist had the seventh fastest four-lap average on Friday and Alexander Rossi was ninth. Patricio O'Ward put down some blistering one-lap and two-lap runs, but never really tied together a strong four-lap effort. O'Ward best average was 13th. 

Santino Ferrucci had a few staggering laps on Friday, and Ferrucci was third in the no tow report on Thursday, but his best four-lap average on Friday was 18th. His average overall practice result was seventh, the fifth best driver in that category. 

What will it take to clinch the top 30?

Of the 33 drivers to register a four-lap mock qualifying run on Friday, they all exceeded over 230 mph in average speed.

Last year, when only 33 cars were entered for the Indianapolis 500 and no one was in danger to be bumped, Juan Pablo Montoya was 30th at 228.622 mph. In 2021, when 35 cars were entered, Dalton Kellett held on to 30th with a speed of 228.323 mph. In 2020, another year with only 33 entries, Max Chilton was 30th at 227.303 mph. Thirty-six cars were entered for the 2019 Indianapolis 500 and Pippa Mann took 30th with four laps averaging 227.244 mph. The 2018 race, the first with the universal aero kit, had 35 drivers and Graham Rahal was 30th at 225.407 mph. 

The average qualifying speed for 30th since 2018 is 227.380 mph

Who is in the most danger of missing the 107th Indianapolis 500?

At the moment, it is Callum Ilott. 

After battling an uncomfortable race car through the first two days of practice, Juncos Hollinger Racing decided to switch to the spare car for Ilott. This car was used in the April test with Agustín Canapino, however, Ilott was unable to make a practice run with this car at the end of Friday and the team is uncertain the car will be ready for the track on Saturday, meaning Ilott and JHR's only chance to make the 107th Indianapolis 500 could be the last change qualifying session to set the final row on Sunday afternoon.

Over the three days, Ilott's average overall practice result was 33.333. He was 34th on Wednesday and Friday. 

Meanwhile, Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing struggled for speed all week and none of its four cars are in a satisfying position heading into Saturday qualifying. Overall, RLLR was 29th (Katherine Legge), 31st (Jack Harvey), 32nd (Christian Lundgaard), and 33rd (Graham Rahal). The only driver RLLR was ahead of was the aforementioned Ilott. Harvey suffered an engine failure in the final ten minutes of Friday practice. 

R.C. Enerson has shown respectable pace all week, but his four-lap average on Friday was 33rd, the slowest registered. Only Ilott did not register a four-lap run.

Dale Coyne Racing haven't been bad, but they haven't been great either. Sting Ray Robb's average overall practice result  is 24.333, ranking 27th this month, but he was 25th and 30th on the no tow report the first two days and his four-lap average was 29th on Friday. David Malukas was 21st and 26th on the no tow report the first two days and his four-lap average was 25th on Friday. 

What about the other nine drivers not mentioned?

Those drivers would be Ryan Hunter-Reay, Stefan Wilson, Devlin DeFrancesco, Benjamin Pedersen, Simon Pagenaud, Tony Kanaan, Agustín Canapino, Marco Andretti and Hélio Castroneves. 

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing has shown solid pace all week, never really wowing anyone at the top, but not concerning anyone at the bottom. An early qualifying draw for Hunter-Reay is favorable and should slot him no worse than the middle of the field. Wilson goes up much later. If conditions are unfavorable he could be closer to the cut line than desired but if he repeats what he has done over the first three days he should be out of the mix for 30th. 

DeFrancesco hasn’t come close to his top teammates all week. He is probably closer to 30th than he wishes but should probably make it on Saturday with breathing room. Andretti had the 17th best four-lap average on Friday. He hasn’t appeared to be a potential Fast 12 participant, but an early qualifying run could put him in a prime spot to steal one of those positions. 

Neither Meyer Shank Racing car looks threatening. Pagenaud’s best four-lap average Friday was 20th and Castroneves’ was 22nd. They will likely make one qualifying run, be far from 12th but not fearing 31st and it will be a quiet day from MSR. 

Kanaan hasn’t been in the same ballpark as his teammates, but it could be a case of the #66 McLaren crew keeping its cards close to its chest. It would not be a surprise if Kanaan cracked the top 12 Saturday. 

While Ilott has been unhappy all week, Canapino looks content. The Argentine was the 15th fastest on four-lap averages Friday. He has expressed no concerns with the balance of his car and  this group appears unfazed about the prospect of being in the last row qualifying session. 

Pedersen is in a similar boat to the likes of Wilson and DeFrancesco. Practice pace has been promising for Pedersen and he has breathing room to the bubble, but is still closer to it than he would probably wishes he was. 

What Does the Qualifying Order Tell Us?

Last year, five of the first six qualifiers advanced to the Fast 12. The top three at the end of day one were all in the first four qualifiers. Rinus VeeKay was second on track and was the fastest, just ahead of Patricio O'Ward, who was the first qualifier of the day, and Felix Rosenqvist was third fastest after being the fourth qualifier. 

If Takuma Sato had not had his first qualifying run disallowed after he failed to properly take the access road in turn three on his cool down lap, disturbing Marco Andretti's qualifying run, then half of the Fast 12 participants would have come from the first ten qualifiers. 

Sato did end up making the Fast 12, but he was the only driver to make it via a second qualifying attempt. The other 11 drivers all made it on their first attempt. While five of the first six made it, three of the final 11 qualifiers did as well, including Will Power, who was 32nd in line. Four other drivers in the second half of the qualifying line made it: Scott Dixon (18th), Álex Palou (19th), Ed Carpenter (23rd) and Marcus Ericsson (25th).

Including Sato, only eight drivers made multiple attempts last year in a Saturday qualifying that was interrupted for rain and then prematurely ended around 4:50 p.m. due to weather. 

Of those eight drivers, five improved, but one of those included Marco Andretti, who had an engine issue on his first attempt, and another was Hélio Castroneves, who had a significant moment on his first qualifying attempt.

The other drivers that improved were David Malukas, who went from a 231.233 mph to 231.607 mph, Callum Ilott going from 230.212 mph to 230.961 mph, and Sage Karam jumping from 229.905 mph to 230.464 mph. 

Sato went from a 232.196 mph, which would have him tenth through the first run through the qualifying line, to 231.708 mph. Scott McLaughlin sacrificed a 231.543 mph average to be the first car on track after the first rainstorm to qualify at 230.154 mph over four laps, dropping him from 15th to 25th on the grid. Alexander Rossi dropped from 231.341 mph, what would have been 16th (17th if McLaughlin's first attempt stood), to 20th at 230.812 mph. 

What is the Qualifying Order?

Ryan Hunter-Reay will be the first on the track for qualifying Saturday ahead of former Andretti Autosport teammate Colton Herta. Will Power will go out third ahead of former Team Penske teammate Hélio Castroneves. Marco Andretti is the fifth qualifier while Marcus Ericsson is sixth in line. Christian Lundgaard will be the first RLLR car to take the track while Alexander Rossi will be the first McLaren driver on circuit. 

Car #9 will be ninth in the qualifying line with driver Scott Dixon. Simon Pagenaud rounds out the first ten qualifiers. Benjamin Pedersen will be the first rookie qualifier, directly ahead of the second rookie qualifier, Sting Ray Robb. Felix Rosenqvist, Tony Kanaan and Ed Carpenter round out the first 15 qualifiers. 

R.C. Enerson will be the third rookie to take to the track ahead of Jack Harvey. Harvey caps off the first half of the qualifying line. Conor Daly kicks off the second half of the line ahead of Devlin DeFrancesco. and Graham Rahal.

Rinus VeeKay and Patricio O'Ward will be the 21st and 22nd qualifiers respectively. Callum Ilott is 23rd in line if his car is ready at that time. Stefan Wilson will go out 24th in car #24 with Takuma Sato being the 25th car in line.

The next three qualifiers will be David Malukas, Santino Ferrucci and Álex Palou. Andretti Autosport teammates Romain Grosjean and Kyle Kirkwood round out the first 30 qualifiers. Katherine Legge is 31st in line ahead of Scott McLaughlin. Agustín Canapino is the final rookie in line, and Josef Newgarden is the 34th and final driver in the order.

What is the Weather Forecast?

Temperatures will be in the 50s at the start of Saturday morning with sunny conditions. At 11:00 a.m. ET, the start of qualifying, the high will be around 59º F with a wind to the south at ten miles per hour. Temperatures will creep up three degrees at noon while wind speeds will climb to about 11 mph. By 2:00 p.m., the high should be around 66º F. 

The high of 69º F will be reached around 4:00 p.m. Saturday and remain at that temperature through the remainder of qualifying with winds still blowing to the south at 11 mph. 

On Sunday, temperatures will be up notably as sunny skies will remain. At noon, it will be around 70º F with a wind to the southwest at about three miles per hour. When the Fast 12 session begins at 2:00 p.m., it will be around 75º F with no change to the wind. The last chance qualifying session at 4:00 p.m. should take place in about 78º F temperatures before the Fast 6 round takes place at 5:00 p.m. ET. 

What is the Qualifying Weekend Schedule?

There will be a one-hour practice session Saturday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. The 34 drivers will be split into two groups, each getting 30 minutes of that one-hour session. 

Day one qualifying will begin at 11:00 a.m. ET and run until 5:50 p.m. ET. The top 12 drivers at the end of day one will advance to the Fast 12 session on Sunday. Qualifiers 13th to 30th will be locked into the Indianapolis 500, and the bottom four will participate in the last chance qualifying session on Sunday.

The Fast 12 participants will get a one-hour practice session at 11:30 a.m. on Sunday with the last chance qualifiers getting an hour of practice starting at 12:30 p.m. The Fast 12 session will be held at 2:00 p.m. Each car will get one attempt. The fastest six advance to the final round to decide pole position. The other six will set rows three and four on the grid. 

At 4:00 p.m., the last chance qualifying session will take place. Each car will get at least one attempt, but multiple attempts will be possible with the qualifying session running through 5:00 p.m. The slowest qualifier from this group will not make the 107th Indianapolis 500. 

The Fast Six qualifying round will begin at 5:15 p.m. with each entry getting one qualifying attempt to win pole position. 

On Monday, a two-hour practice session will held starting at 1:00 p.m. 

107th Indianapolis 500 Practice Preview

It is time for the Indianapolis 500. Four practice days, two qualifying days, another practice days, three days off, another practice session and a parade are all that stand between now and the 107th Indianapolis 500.

With 34 drivers entered, one will end next Sunday on the outside while 33 of his or her colleagues will compete to add their bust to the BorgWarner Trophy. The manufacturers have equal representation, 17 Hondas and 17 Chevrolets. There are nine past winners in this year's race, just like 2021, and it is the fourth "500" to feature at least nine past winners. Four rookies are entered.

There is much more to cover ahead of this Indianapolis 500. Let's break down what to remember as practice is set to start. 

What is the schedule?

Practice opens on Tuesday May 16 at 9:00 a.m. ET for a two-hour and 15 minute veterans oval session. After an hour and 45-minute break, the rookie orientation and refresher will start at 1:00 p.m. ET and last for two hours. At 3:00 p.m. ET, the track will open to all entries for three hours. 

For the following three days, practice will start at noon and end at 6:00 p.m. each day. The qualifying draw will take place at 6:15 p.m. ET on Friday May 19. 

On Saturday, there will be a one-hour practice held at 8:30 a.m. The field will be split in half and each will get 30 minutes of track time during that one hour. Qualifying will commence at 11:00 a.m. and conclude at 5:50 p.m. 

At the end of Saturday, the fastest 12 cars will advance to the Fast 12 session on Sunday. Qualifiers 13th through 30th will be locked into the 107th Indianapolis 500. Cars ranked 31st, 32nd, 33rd and 34th will compete in the last chance qualifying session. 

Sunday will have a one-hour session for the Fast 12 at 11:30 a.m. with another hour of practice following for the last chance qualifiers. At 2:00 p.m., the Fast 12 round will take place. The Fast Six will advance to the final round of qualifying while rows three and four will be set. 

Last chance qualifying will begin at 4:00 p.m. on Sunday and set the final row. Each car will be guaranteed one attempt with multiple attempts possible until the one-hour session expires. At 5:15 p.m., the Fast Six round will take place to determine pole position.

On Monday May 22, a two-hour practice session will be held at 1:00 p.m.

What is the forecast?

Showers are set to greet everyone at the start of Tuesday, but the hope is for it to clear up around 2:00 p.m.  local time. Chance of precipitation is at 57% with a high around 71º F with north northwest winds at 8 mph. 

The good news is sunny skies are forecasted for Wednesday and Thursday with a high of 74º F Wednesday and 75º F on Thursday. Friday will have cloudy skies and a 24% chance of precipitation, but a high of 82º F. Winds will be about 11 mph from the south southwest.

Rain is in the forecast for Saturday. There is a 50% chance of precipitation in the morning and becoming more intermittent in the afternoon. The high drops to 71º F with a west northwest wind at 12 mph. Conditions look better on Sunday, cloudy but chance of precipitation drops to 11%. The high remains around 74º F with an 8-mph wind out of the north northwest. 

For the Monday practice, partly cloudy skies with a 76º F high and a 7-mph wind from the east northeast is set to meet the 33 qualified teams for the Indianapolis 500. 

Who will participate in Rookie Orientation and the Refresher?

Since 33 cars participated in the open test held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in April, the only entry that has to complete rookie orientation is the #50 Abel Motorsports Chevrolet for RC Enerson. The Abel entry had only been confirmed days leading up to the open test and the car was not ready to take to the track in April. 

Though this isn't Enerson's first Indianapolis 500 qualifying attempt, he will have to complete rookie orientation as he failed to qualify for the 2021 race, meaning his is still considered a rookie. 

The Rookie Class

Four rookies are entered in this year's Indianapolis 500. 

Besides the aforementioned RC Enerson, Sting Ray Robb, Benjamin Pedersen and Agustín Canapino will attempt to make their first Indianapolis 500. 

Robb and Pedersen are both coming from the Road to Indy path. Both drivers spent the last two years competing in Indy Lights, and they both won races last year. Canapino spent the previous 15 years competing in touring car and sports car series in his native Argentina. 

At 33 years old, Canapino is the oldest of this year's rookie field while Robb is the youngest at 21 years of age. Entering 2023, 791 drivers have started the Indianapolis 500.

Who is not there?

Only five drivers from the 106th Indianapolis 500 will not be making an attempt in the 107th Indianapolis 500. 

Two of those drivers were with A.J. Foyt Racing last year. The Foyt team has decreased from three entries to two entries at Indianapolis this May. This has sidelined J.R. Hildebrand, who had started 12 consecutive Indianapolis 500s from his runner-up finish in 2011 to his 12th-place finish last year. Hildebrand had four top ten finishes at Indianapolis and he completed all 500 miles on ten occasions. He was only one lap down in 2019 and the only retirement he had was in 2013 when he had an accident on lap four of the race. Hildebrand had been the top Foyt finisher the previous two years at Indianapolis.

Dalton Kellett is not back with A.J. Foyt Racing. Kellett had finished 31st, 23rd and 27th in his three Indianapolis 500 starts. 

Juan Pablo Montoya is not returning after running as an additional McLaren driver the previous two years. Montoya had not run at Indianapolis from 2018 to 2020 prior to his return with McLaren. In seven Indianapolis 500 starts, the Colombian won twice, had a fifth, a sixth, a ninth, an 11th and was 33rd in the 100th edition of the race.

For the first time since 2013, Sage Karam is not entered for the Indianapolis 500. Karam had finished ninth as a rookie in 2014 and was seventh in 2021. Last year, Karam had an accident on the final lap knock him down to 23rd. He finished outside the top twenty in six of his nine starts. Eight of his nine starts were with Dreyer & Reinbold Racing. 

Jimmie Johnson is not making a second Indianapolis 500 start in 2023. Johnson qualified 12th in last year's race before sliding back and running mostly outside the top twenty. He led two laps during a pit cycle before having an accident in turn two on lap 194.

What trends should we know for the Fast 12 and the race?

Topping the no tow report matters. Last year, all three drivers to top the no tow report during practice made the Fast 12. Since 2016, only once has a driver topped a no tow report and not started in the top 12. That was Jack Harvey in 2020, who topped the no tow report in Thursday practice that year. 

Last year, Rinus VeeKay, Will Power and Takuma Sato topped the no tow report on the three practice days. They all made the Fast 12. Only VeeKay made the Fast Six. Sato and Power both started on row four. 

Though VeeKay, Power and Sato all topped the no tow report, Alexander Rossi's average no tow position over those three practice days was the best, averaging fifth over the three days, but Rossi qualified 20th. 

Sato topped all three practice days overall. Scott Dixon had the second best average overall practice position and won his second consecutive pole position. Dixon's no tow report average ranked fourth. The New Zealander was second on the first two practice days and fifth on Fast Friday. 

Eight of the top nine cars in average overall practice result made the Fast 12. However, the other four Fast 12 participants ranked 14th (Tony Kanaan), 17th (Power), 21st (Ed Carpenter) and 27th (Romain Grosjean) in said category. The only car among the top nine that didn't make the Fast 12 was David Malukas, and Malukas qualified 13th.

Honda had a slight edge last year in the Fast 12, taking seven of 12 spots, and Honda held that edge into the Fast Six with four participants. In the prior two years, Honda had taken 15 of 18 Fast Nine positions. 

Only two teams were represented in the Fast Six last year: Chip Ganassi Racing and Ed Carpenter Racing. A further four more teams were represented in the Fast 12. Arrow McLaren had two cars while Andretti Autosport, Dale Coyne Racing and Team Penske each had one. The final Fast 12 spot went to the fifth Ganassi entry for Jimmie Johnson.

Last year, Marcus Ericsson's practice results were fourth, seventh and fourth. Since 2012, only three Indianapolis 500 winners were not in the top five overall on any practice days (Kanaan, Juan Pablo Montoya and Hélio Castroneves). Only twice has the Indianapolis 500 not been in the top ten for multiple practice days (Power and Castroneves).

However, only once in the last 11 years has an Indianapolis 500 winner topped a pre-qualifying practice session. That was Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2014, who topped the Monday pre-qualifying practice day.

Who should be nervous about bumping?

Only one car will fail to qualify for the Indianapolis 500, but while all it will take is beating one car in qualifying, it will still be a nerve-wracking pair of qualifying days for a handful of teams, and there is a clear break between the haves and the have-nots. 

Abel Motorsports with Enerson tops the list. It is a team attempting its IndyCar debut with a car that has not been on track while the other 33 entries all participated in the open test last month. 

Though Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing had an encouraging Grand Prix of Indianapolis, the team's superspeedway concerns should still be there. Its three cars qualified 24th, 27th and 28th at Texas in April. In last year's Indianapolis 500, two of its three entries started on the last row. There was no threat of bumping last year, but none of those cars showed great speed and Graham Rahal was the best qualifier in 21st. 

At the open test in April, RLLR's cars were 23rd (Rahal), 26th (Christian Lundgaard) 28th (Jack Harvey) and 32nd (Katherine Legge). Legge hasn't run an IndyCar race nor an oval race since her 2013 Indianapolis 500 appearance. 

Two other teams had all of its drivers in the bottom nine at the test. Santino Ferrucci might have been the fastest A.J. Foyt Racing driver but he was only 25th while teammate Benjamin Pedersen was the slowest, albeit only 0.0008 seconds off Legge. Agustín Canapino has only one oval start to his name and he was 27th in testing with Juncos Hollinger Racing, but Callum Ilott was 31st as Ilott gears up for his second Indianapolis appearance.

Ilott, Legge and Pedersen were the only drivers not to run a lap in the 221-mph bracket at the test. 

Dale Coyne Racing's Sting Ray Robb and Andretti Autosport's Devlin DeFrancesco were interlopers at the bottom of the time sheet in testing in 29th and 30th. 

What will this race mean for the championship?

Unlike the previous nine Indianapolis 500, this race will not be worth double points. The winner will not get 100, but the regular 50. The qualifying bonus points remain with the pole-sitter getting 12 points and it decreasing by one point for the remaining spots in the top 12. 

Combined with bonus points for leading laps, the most points a driver can walkaway with after the 107th Indianapolis 500 is 65 points. The fewest is five points. 

The one thing we did learn with double points at the Indianapolis 500 is it did not alter the championship that much, at least not for the race winner. The race winner may have finished two or three spots better than if Indianapolis had not been double points but at no time over the nine years did the Indianapolis 500 winner go on to win the championship. The most recent "500" winner to take the title that same year was Dario Franchitti in 2010. 

In the nine years with double points, the average championship finish for the Indianapolis winner was 7.444. In the nine years prior to double points (2005-2013), the average championship finish for the Indianapolis winner was 6.111. In each of those stretches, a part-time driver won the Indianapolis 500 (Dan Wheldon in 2011 and Hélio Castroneves in 2021). If you remove both those part-time drivers, the average championship finish for the Indianapolis winner improves to 3.375 for the last eight seasons without double points and to 5.625 for the eight seasons with double points. 

In six of nine double points Indianapolis 500s, the championship lead changed after the race. Ericsson went from eighth to the championship lead. In the nine Indianapolis 500s prior to double points, only three times did the championship lead change after the race. With 65 points on the table for a race victory, only the top nine in the championship could leave Indianapolis as the championship leader.

Seven of 11 Indianapolis 500 winners in the DW12-era have been first-time winners. Takuma Sato is the only driver to have won multiple Indianapolis 500s in the DW12 chassis.