Thursday, September 10, 2020

Track Walk: Mid-Ohio 2020

Better late than never, IndyCar heads to Mid-Ohio
  
The tenth and 11th rounds of the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season takes IndyCar to the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in Lexington, Ohio. This round had been delayed from the weekend of August 8-9 due to public gathering restrictions in the state of Ohio. IndyCar has not run a road course since the Road America doubleheader two months ago. This is the fourth of five doubleheaders on the 2020 IndyCar calendar. Through the first three doubleheaders, all six races have had either a Team Penske or Chip Ganassi Racing driver take victory. The races at Mid-Ohio this weekend will be 75 laps, each 15 laps shorter than the normally scheduled 90-lap Mid-Ohio race. These will be the shortest Mid-Ohio races since the inaugural CART race in 1980, which was 65 laps and Johnny Rutherford took the victory.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday August 8 with green flag scheduled for 4:50 p.m. ET on NBCSN. On Sunday September 13, coverage begins at 1:00 p.m. ET with green flag scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET on NBC.
Channel: NBCSN and NBC
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and James Hinchcliffe will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Saturday:
Practice: 10:45 a.m. ET (75 minutes)*
Qualifying: 2:00 p.m. ET*
Race: 4:50 p.m. ET (75 laps)
Sunday:
Qualifying: 10:15 a.m. ET*
Race: 1:05 p.m. ET (75 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live with the NBC Sports Gold IndyCar pass.

Who is Alive?
With the 2020 NTT IndyCar Series schedule finalized and five races remaining, we know who is alive for the championship, who is on the cusp of elimination and who will not be lifting the Astor Cup this autumn.

Nineteen drivers are alive for the championship. 

Scott Dixon leads the way with 416 points, 96 points clear of defending champion Josef Newgarden. Dixon and Newgarden are the only drivers with multiple victories this season and they split the Gateway doubleheaders two weeks ago. 

Patricio O'Ward finds himself third in the championship through nine of 14 races in his first full IndyCar season. O'Ward has been in the top five of the championship for the last six races, but he is 119 points behind Dixon. Indianapolis 500 winner Takuma Sato is fourth, 142 points back. Prior to Sato's Indianapolis 500 victory, he was 16th in the championship. Colton Herta rounds out the top five on 250 points, trailing Dixon by 166 points. Herta has been no worse than seventh in the championship this season and was as high as second after the Road America weekend. 

Simon Pagenaud is 169 points back in sixth, the lowest Pagenaud has been in the championship all season. Graham Rahal is 170 points behind Dixon in seventh after being in the top five after the prior three races. Will Power is 190 points back and Santino Ferrucci sits eighth, 200 points off Dixon. Felix Rosenqvist rounds out the top ten on 208 points, exactly half the points total of his Ganassi teammate. 

Ryan Hunter-Reay is 14 points outside the top ten, but 222 points behind Dixon. Marcus Ericsson is 12th in the championship, but 232 points off his Ganassi teammate. Rinus VeeKay and Jack Harvey each trail Dixon by 235 points. Conor Daly sits 251 points off the top. Rookies Álex Palou and Oliver Askew are still alive, but 256 points and 261 points behind Dixon respectively.

Alexander Rossi is alive, but barely breathing, 18th in the championship on 154 points, 262 points behind Dixon. The final driver mathematically alive for the championship is Charlie Kimball, 266 points off Dixon. 

Zach Veach and Marco Andretti are the only full-time drivers eliminated from championship contention. 

The bad news for Rossi is if Dixon starts the first Mid-Ohio race, Rossi would have to score the maximum 270 points from the final five races and Dixon miss the final four races to win the championship. If Dixon scores nine points or more in race one at Mid-Ohio, Rossi will be eliminated from championship contention. 

After this weekend, any driver trailing Dixon by 162 points or more will be mathematically eliminated from championship hunt. Fourteen of the 19 mathematically eligible drivers are currently below that cutline. 

Scott Dixon's Grip
With four victories, six podium finishes, eight top five finishes from nine starts and a 96-point championship lead, the remainder of the 2020 calendar plays into Dixon's hands. 

No driver has more victories at Mid-Ohio than Scott Dixon and this trip to the Buckeye State will be a doubleheader. With a 96-point lead with five races remaining, Dixon could have both hands on the Astor Cup at the end of this weekend and the trophy lift could come at the Harvest Grand Prix weekend at Indianapolis Motor Speedway at the start of October, a track Dixon won at on Independence Day. Remember, the 2020 season finale at St. Petersburg will not be worth double points, meaning Dixon's magic number to clinch the title early is 54 points. All he needs is a 47-point lead heading into the finale to clinch the title by simply starting St. Petersburg.

Dixon is on pace for one of the best seasons of his career. His average finish of 3.333 would be the best of his career. He averaged a fourth-place finish in the 2007 season. His average finish is three positions better than the next better driver in 2020. Newgarden and O'Ward have both averaged a 6.333 finishing position through nine races. 

Dixon is one of two drivers to complete every lap in 2020. The other is Newgarden. He is two victories away from matching his most in a season when he won six in 2008. With five races remaining, Dixon already has his fifth-most laps led in a season on 340. He is only 18 laps led away from making 2020 his fourth best season. This year could go as high as his third most laps led in a season. 

With two more top five finishes this season, this would be the tenth season Dixon has scored ten top five finishes or more. In his previous 19 IndyCar seasons, he has had double figures in top ten finishes in 17 of them. 

This historic year marches into Mid-Ohio. On top of Dixon's six victories, he has finished in the top five in 11 of 15 starts. He has 13 top ten finishes at the track. He has an average finish of 5.533 and average starting position of 7.4667. Only once has Dixon failed to finish on the lead lap. He has advanced to the Fast Six in nine of a possible 13 occasions, however, Dixon's last two Mid-Ohio victories have come from 22nd and eighth on the grid. 

For all of Dixon's success, this is only the fifth time he has had at least four victories in a season, and this is the first time since 2013, his third championship season. In 2007, Dixon had not won until the tenth race of the season and the fourth victory came in the 15th race at Sonoma. In 2008, Dixon did not reach his third victory until the eighth race at Texas and the fourth victory was the 12th race at Nashville. He won win the 14th and 15th races of that season. The following year, Dixon won three of the first eight races and his fourth victory was the 13th race at Mid-Ohio. His final victory was the penultimate round at Motegi. 

In 2013, Dixon did not win until the 11th race of the season at Pocono, but that was a start of three-race winning streak, which include a sweep of the Toronto doubleheader. His fourth victory was the 17th race at Houston, the antepenultimate round of the season. 

With Dixon's 50th victory coming at Gateway two weeks ago, he is two victories behind Mario Andretti for second all-time. A weekend sweep would leave the two tied on 52 career victories. 

Time Running Out For Victory
Through nine races we have five different winners, however three race winners from 2019 are still without a victory and many other drivers have been close but come up short in 2020.

Alexander Rossi, Will Power and Colton Herta are the three winners from 2019 who have yet to stood atop the top step of the podium in 2020.

Rossi made up ground prior to the Indianapolis 500. He went from 22nd in the championship after the Grand Prix of Indianapolis to tenth after the second Iowa race. However, two consecutive retirements due to accidents in the Indianapolis 500 and first Gateway race dropped him to 18th in the championship. He has finished outside the top ten in three consecutive races after he started the 2020 season with three consecutive finishes outside the top ten. The last time Rossi had four consecutive finishes outside the top ten was from Toronto to Texas in his rookie season four years ago. 

Rossi won at Mid-Ohio in 2018 and he has three consecutive top ten finishes at the track. It has been 16 starts since Rossi's most recent victory at Road America. That was the tenth race of the season and the first Mid-Ohio race will be the tenth race of the season. Rossi remains responsible for Andretti Autosport's only podium finish this year, a third in the second Road America race.

If it weren't for Scott Dixon, Will Power might be the Mid-Ohio master. Power holds the record for best average starting position at 3.1 and best average finishing position at 5.2. Power has started on the front row in five consecutive years and in eight of 11 starts. He has started in the top six in ten consecutive races and his worst starting position is 12th. A Mid-Ohio victory has eluded him, but it has come with plenty of close calls. He has four runner-up finishes, a third-place finish and a total eight top five finishes. He has nine top ten finishes and he has completed every possible lap in his 11 starts. He is tied with Mario Andretti on 139 laps led, the seventh-most in Mid-Ohio history.

This is the 12th consecutive season Power has had at least three podium finishes. However, with an average finish of 11.4, this is on track to be Power's third worst season in terms of average finish. He is eighth in the championship, but he has finished in the top five of the championship in all ten seasons he has been full-time at Team Penske. 

Colton Herta was eighth last year in his Mid-Ohio debut and he never won at the track in the Road to Indy. He had three runner-up finishes in four Indy Lights starts and in U.S. F2000 in 2014 he had finishes of tenth, 16th and 13th.

The only drivers with more top five finishes this season than Herta are Dixon and Newgarden with Herta, Pagenaud and O'Ward all on four top five finishes. Herta has the fourth-best average this season at 8.555 behind Dixon at 3.333 and Newgarden and O'Ward tied at 6.333.

The only problem for Herta, and it is a problem that extends over the entire Andretti Autosport organization, is not having cars contending for victories. Herta has led only 11 laps this year. The Andretti organization has led a combined 50 laps from nine races. Rossi and Zach Veach have each led 17 laps. Ryan Hunter-Reay has only led four laps. James Hinchcliffe led one lap at Indianapolis. 

Andretti Autosport has led 3.35% of the laps this season. Team Penske has led 43.222% of the laps while Dixon alone has led 22.8% of the laps with the Ganassi organizing combining for 24.63% laps led. 

Last year, Hunter-Reay was third, it was his third podium finish at Mid-Ohio, but he has never finished better than third at Mid-Ohio. In 14 starts, Hunter-Reay has completed 1,226 of 1,232 laps. The six laps he did not complete were in 2012 when he lost an engine just before the finish of the race. Among active drivers with at least three Mid-Ohio starts, Rossi and Hunter-Reay rank fourth and fifth respectively behind only Dixon, Power and Pagenaud. 

It is unlikely Zach Veach or Marco Andretti will pick up Andretti Autosport's first victory of 2020, but stranger things have happened. Veach opened the season as Andretti's leader with a fourth-place finish at Texas, but he has averaged of 18.375 finish over his last eight races. Texas was the third time Veach had a top five finish in his career. After each of Veach's three top five finishes he has followed it with eight consecutive finishes outside the top ten. Veach was tenth in his first start in his home state. Last year, he was 21st, one-lap down. Andretti has not finished in the top ten in his last four Mid-Ohio starts after having six top ten finishes in his first nine starts at the track. He has never had a top five finish.

In 2009, Andretti Autosport failed to pick up a victory, but since Michael Andretti purchased ownership into the team in 2003, the latest the team's first victory of a season has come was the tenth race in 2006 at Milwaukee with Tony Kanaan.

Patricio O'Ward has been knocking on the door of his first career victory all season. He has seven top ten finishes in his last eight races. His three podium finishes are tied for second-most with the three Team Penske drivers and Graham Rahal. He has led a lap in five of the last six races and he has led at least 30 laps in four of those races. 

Graham Rahal has three podium finishes this season, but it has been more than three years since his most recent victory at Belle Isle in 2017. Rahal has top ten finishes in six consecutive Mid-Ohio races, including a victory in 2015 and four top five finishes. The only track Rahal has multiple victories at is Belle Isle, where he swept the 2017 doubleheader. 

Santino Ferrucci has five top ten finishes this season from nine races. Ferrucci's oval results did take a step back from 2019, but he has been stronger on road courses this season. He has three top ten finishes on road courses this season, including a pair of sixth-place finishes at Road America. He was 12th at Mid-Ohio last year and of the remaining two tracks, he has finished in the top ten of both his IMS road course starts and was ninth at St. Petersburg last year. 

While both of Marcus Ericsson's teammates have won a race in 2020, Ericsson has yet to stand on the podium. He does have six top ten finishes this season after having three top ten finishes in his rookie season last year, but he has finished 32nd and 23rd in his last two races. Chip Ganassi Racing has never had three different drivers win in one season. 

Meyer Shank Racing returns to its home track with three top ten finishes this season, all coming on ovals. Jack Harvey has qualified in the top ten for seven of nine races and he has started on the front row twice. His best finish on a road course this season is 17th. Last year, Harvey pulled out a tenth-place finish in this race.

Rinus VeeKay leaped to the top of the rookie battle with his finishes of sixth and fourth at Gateway, however, outside of the Indianapolis 500, VeeKay has started 13th or worse in every race this season with his best road course start being 15th. Álex Palou is 20 points behind VeeKay and Palou has finished outside the top ten in the last five races. He was third and seventh at Road America. Oliver Askew is 25 points behind VeeKay and he has yet to finish better than 15th on a road course this year with two retirements.

Conor Daly will be in the #20 Air Force Chevrolet for Ed Carpenter Racing for the rest of the season with Max Chilton stepping in Carlin's #59 Gallagher Chevrolet to complete the season. This is Daly's first time at Mid-Ohio since 2018 and this will be his fourth different team for a Mid-Ohio race. He was sixth on debut with Dale Coyne Racing in 2016, tenth with A.J. Foyt Racing the following year and 22nd with Harding Racing in 2018. Excluding Austin, where Chilton has one start, Mid-Ohio is his second-worst track with an average finish of 17.8 ahead of only Barber's 19.2. His best Mid-Ohio finish is 15th.

Charlie Kimball returns to the location of his only IndyCar victory. Kimball's best Mid-Ohio finish since that day was seventh in 2014 and his average finish at the track since is 13.4. Dalton Kellett will be back in the #14 Chevrolet this week. Kellett was third in the first Indy Lights race at the track in 2018 behind O'Ward and Herta. A.J. Foyt Racing has only two top five finishes at Mid-Ohio. Robby Gordon was second in 1993 and Ryan Hunter-Reay was fourth in 2009.

Road to Indy
The Road to Indy schedules are back on track and will be at Mid-Ohio. Both series ran triple-headers prior to Labor Day weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. With this Mid-Ohio round back on the schedule, Indy Pro 2000 has seven races left, two races at Mid-Ohio, three at New Jersey Motorsports Park on October 9-11 and a doubleheader at St. Petersburg on October 23-25. U.S. F2000 has eight races left with Mid-Ohio and NJMP being tripleheaders and a doubleheader at St. Petersburg.

Sting Ray Robb swept the IMS weekend and he has a 16-points championship lead over Devlin DeFrancesco, who won the Gateway round. Robb won at Mid-Ohio during Indy Pro 2000's triple-header at the track back at the end of July. DeFrancesco was on the podium for two of those three races. 

Robb's Juncos Racing teammate Artem Petrov has 207 points, 49 points back of the top spot and Petrov won the second race of that Mid-Ohio round in July. Petrov has finished third in three of the last four races. Danial Frost has dropped to 57 points off Petrov. Frost has not finished on the podium since he was runner-up in the first Mid-Ohio race in July. Since then, he has finished in fifth position four times. 

Hunter McElrea has been runner-up in four of the last six races. The New Zealander is fifth in the championship, 122 points off Robb. Parker Thompson has three consecutive top five finishes and he is 86 points behind Robb. 

Braden Eves won the first Mid-Ohio race in July, but Eves fractured a couple vertebrae in his back and suffered a fracture above his right eye after an accident in the first IMS race. Eves will likely be out for the rest of the season. He was seventh in the championship on 163 points.

Indy Pro 2000 will race at 12:15 p.m. ET on Saturday September 12 and at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday September 13.

Christian Rasmussen's perfect season in U.S. F2000 was snapped at the IMS road course. Rasmussen had finishes of sixth, fifth and 21st after winning the first six races of the year, including sweeping a triple-header at Mid-Ohio in July. The Dane retains a 50-point lead in the championship over Reece Gold, who won the final IMS road course race. Gold has finished on the podium in six races, including all three Mid-Ohio races in July. 

Eduardo Barrichello won the first two IMS road course races and Barrichello is up to third in the championship on 187 points, 63 markers behind Rasmussen. Christian Brooks was third and second in the final two IMS races and he is fourth in the championship on 150 points. Josh Green rounds out the top five with 145 points. 

After five top five finishes in the first six races, Michael d'Orlando has slipped to sixth in the championship, one points outside the top five. D'Orlando had finishes of 20th, sixth and 19th in Indianapolis. Matt Round-Garrido is seventh on 130 points and he has not finished in the top five of the last five races. 

Jack William Miller has two podium finishes and four top five finishes in his last five starts. Miller nearly won the final IMS race last weekend. He had led 17 laps before he went wide in turn one, letting Gold take the lead. Miller was further assessed a five-second penalty for unsafe re-entry to the track, dropping him to fourth in the final order. This run of form does have Miller up to eighth in the championship on 117 points. 

Kiko Porto started on pole position for two of the three IMS races and he scored finishes of third, fourth and third. Porto and Yuven Sundaramoorthy are tied on 103 points and round out the top ten. 

U.S. F2000 will race at 8:30 a.m. ET and 1:05 p.m. ET on Saturday September 12. The final race of the weekend will be at 11:15 a.m. ET on Sunday September 13. 

Fast Facts
Saturday's race will be the 11th IndyCar race to take place on September 12 and first since 2004 when Patrick Carpentier won at Laguna Seca in Champ Car and Adrián Fernández won at Chicagoland in the Indy Racing League. 

Saturday's race will fall on the 21st anniversary of Bryan Herta's second career IndyCar victory, which came at Laguna Seca. 

Saturday's race will also fall on the 27th anniversary of Emerson Fittipaldi winning at Mid-Ohio for his 20th IndyCar victory. It is the most recent time IndyCar has raced at Mid-Ohio in September. 

Sunday's race will be the fifth IndyCar race to take place on September 13 and first since Bryan Herta won at Laguna Seca in 1998, his first career victory. 

Sunday's race will fall on the 28th anniversary of Emerson Fittipaldi's second Mid-Ohio victory. 

Ten Mid-Ohio races have occurred in September. Fittipaldi won three of them, Teo Fabi and Michael Andretti each won two and Mario Andretti, Bobby Rahal and Roberto Guerrero each won once. 

Honda has won five of the last eight Mid-Ohio races. Of the tracks to host at least eight races since 2012, Mid-Ohio is the one where Honda has the best winning percentage at 62.5%.

Honda has won the last two Mid-Ohio races. Since engine competition returned to IndyCar in 2012, the only time Honda has won three consecutive races at a track are at Belle Isle in 2012 and sweeping the 2013 doubleheader, sweeping the Belle Isle doubleheaders in 2017 and 2018, at Long Beach from 2017 to 2019 and winning at Road America, winning in 2019 and sweeping the 2020 doubleheader.

Honda has 15 Mid-Ohio victories to Chevrolet's eight victories at the track.

The only driver to score a first career victory at Mid-Ohio was Charlie Kimball in 2013.

The Mid-Ohio winner has gone on to win the championship 11 times, most recently in 2017 with Josef Newgarden.

Every Mid-Ohio winner has finished in the top ten of the championship.

On only three occasions has the Mid-Ohio winner not finished in the top five of the championship. In 1988, Emerson Fittipaldi was seventh in the championship. Hélio Castroneves was seventh in 2000. Charlie Kimball was ninth in 2013.

The average starting position for a Mid-Ohio winner is 3.828 with a median of third.

Four of the first 29 Mid-Ohio races were won from outside the top five.

Three of the last six Mid-Ohio races have been won from outside the top five.

The average number of lead chances in a Mid-Ohio race is 4.714 with a median of five.

The average number of cautions in a Mid-Ohio race is 1.882 with a median of two. The average number of caution laps is 7.382 with a median of 7.5.

The last two Mid-Ohio races have gone caution-free. Four of the last eight Mid-Ohio races have been caution-free. Seven of the last eight Mid-Ohio races have had two cautions or fewer.

The most cautions in a Mid-Ohio race was five in 2010. The most caution laps in a Mid-Ohio race was 19 laps in 2008.

Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon is two victories away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time on 52 victories.

Will Power is two victories away from tying Al Unser for fifth all-time on 39 victories.

Ryan Hunter-Reay is two victories away from becoming the 22nd driver in IndyCar history to reach 20 victories.

If Ryan Hunter-Reay starts one of the two races this weekend it will be the 262th start of Hunter-Reay's career and he will surpass Gordon Johncock for 13th all-time.

If Will Power starts one of the two races this weekend it will be the 231st start of Power's career and he will surpass Roger McCluskey for 18th all-time.

If Graham Rahal starts both races this weekend, he will have made 169 consecutive starts, tying Takuma Sato for the eighth longest starts streak in IndyCar history.

Scott Dixon needs to lead 59 laps to become the fifth driver with 6,000 laps in an IndyCar career. 

Scott Dixon needs to lead 97 laps to surpass Hélio Castroneves for fourth all-time in laps led.

Will Power needs to lead one lap to surpass Paul Tracy for ninth all-time in laps led.

Josef Newgarden needs to lead 56 laps to become the 23rd driver to lead 2,500 laps in an IndyCar career.

Will Power is one pole position away from becoming the second driver in IndyCar history to reach 60 pole positions.

Predictions
Alexander Rossi and Scott Dixon split the weekend. Felix Rosenqvist will get another podium finish and be the top Ganassi driver in one of the two races. Simon Pagenaud will start in the top ten for both races.  Josef Newgarden will finish ahead of Scott Dixon in one of the races. Will Power will be the top Penske finisher in one race. Graham Rahal will finish ahead of Takuma Sato in at least one race. Rinus VeeKay will not be the top rookie after this weekend. Oliver Askew has one race where he is either ahead or within two positions of Patricio O'Ward. There will be a driver who has not finished in the top ten of the last four races getting at least one top ten finish this weekend. Sleeper: Conor Daly.