Good news! We have completed nine IndyCar races through August.
Bad news! Mid-Ohio is floating as an unscheduled doubleheader and there are either three races left or five races left, and there is a chance IndyCar will not race again until October.
Don't worry, it will figure itself out, and Mid-Ohio will hopefully be rescheduled this month. If not, IndyCar either will scramble for another make-up round or this season will just have 12 races.
Either way, we are halfway through this season, this more condensed and somehow longer feeling season. We are almost at the end, as strange and hollow as that sounds.
This is the second year I am tracking a league format for IndyCar, using head-to-head matchups to determine weekly standings with a playoff and promotion and relegation for the participating IndyCar teams.
We had to make a few adjustments to this because of the altered schedule and those were spelled out in
July. If everything had gone to plan, we would have been looking at five completed rounds since July, with three rounds left in the regular season and that concluding at the Laguna Seca doubleheader. With Portland and Laguna Seca gone, Gateway and the Harvest Grand Prix on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course expended to doubleheaders and the unknown status of a Mid-Ohio doubleheader, where are we now?
Because Mid-Ohio was delayed at last minute, that head-to-head matchup shifted back. I kept all the scheduled matchups for Indianapolis 500 qualifying, the Indianapolis 500 and Gateway the same. The Mid-Ohio matchups are the next two scheduled rounds, though if Mid-Ohio is not rescheduled, I will have to come up with something else.
I could just end the season, expand the playoffs back to eight teams and take the top four from each conference have the playoffs over the final three races. The bottom of each conference would be relegated and the top two from League Two would get promoted. I don't want to do that because the league would be unbalanced, and some matchups would have only happened once instead of twice.
It is tough to make up two matchups. I could use qualifying from Iowa and/or Gateway. Texas and Indianapolis qualifying came into play. The issue with Iowa and Gateway is qualifying was for two races. The first lap of each qualifying run set the race one grid and the second lap set the field for the second race.
Here is what I am proposing, and this is only if Mid-Ohio doesn't get rescheduled, the first Mid-Ohio matchups will be the average starting position of the two Iowa races and the second Mid-Ohio matchups will be the average starting position of the two Mid-Ohio races. I don't know how that will play out. Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but a contingency plan is in place.
Either way, the regular season finale will be the first Harvest Grand Prix race. The playoff races will be the second Harvest Grand Prix race and St. Petersburg.
What does the league look like through 11 weeks?
League One Results:Week 1 (TEXAS QUALIFYING):
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (1 to 20)
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (2 to 13)
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (6 to 16)
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR (22 to 7)
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti (3 to 11)
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (8 to 10)
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP (9 to 18)
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (4 to 23)
Week 2 (TEXAS):
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR (3 to 5)
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP (1 to 9)
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (13 to 17)
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (24 to 23)
#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt (2 to 10)
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (15 to 14)
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (20 to 21)
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (8 to 12)
Week 3 (GPOI):
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (7 to 19)
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (1 to 2)
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (20 to 26)
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (10 to 12)
#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP (3 to 8)
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (25 to 9)
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti (15 to 22)
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (13 to 21)
Week 4 (ROAD AMERICA):
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (14 to 7)
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske (1 to 2)
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (9 to 15)
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (3 to 21)
#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (6 to 12)
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (19 to 18)
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (4 to 22)
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt (8 to 20)
Week 5 (ROAD AMERICA):
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (9 to 8)
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne (12 to 7)
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR (11 to 18)
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (23 to 21)
#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti (13 to 22)
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (3 to 2)
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt (1 to 20)
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti (6 to 19)
Week 6 (IOWA):
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske (5 to 21)
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 10)
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (12 to 15)
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP (11 to 3)
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (1 to 14)
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti (6 to 16)
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt (13 to 18)
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti (4 to 22)
Week 7 (IOWA):
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi (1 to 5)
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (2 to 21)
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (3 to 14)
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP (23 to 6)
#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti (4 to 8)
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti (15 to 22)
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP (18 to 12)
#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti (11 to 10)
Week 8 (INDIANAPOLIS 500 QUALIFYING):
#1 Penske vs. #20 ECR (13 to 16)
#9 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP (2 to 21)
#12 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (22 to 7)
#30 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne (3 to 8)
#22 Penske vs. #14 Foyt (25 to 23)
#27 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (9 to 1)
#10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (14 to 19)
#28 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (5 to 15)
Week 9 (INDIANAPOLIS 500):
#1 Penske vs. #55 Coyne (5 to 28)
#9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR (2 to 3)
#12 Penske vs. #7 AMSP (14 to 30)
#30 RLLR vs. #20 ECR (1 to 26)
#22 Penske vs. #5 AMSP (22 to 6)
#27 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne (27 to 4)
#10 Ganassi vs. #98 Andretti (12 to 13)
#28 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt (10 to 19)
Week 10 (GATEWAY):
#1 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (12 to 18)
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske (1 to 17)
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (2 to 14)
#55 Coyne vs. #20 ECR (15 to 20)
#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (19 to 16)
#27 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (22 to 8)
#28 Andretti vs. #98 Andretti (7 to 23)
#5 AMSP vs. #14 Foyt (3 to 9)
Week 11 (GATEWAY):
#1 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (1 to 9)
#9 Ganassi vs. #55 Coyne (5 to 12)
#12 Penske vs. #20 ECR (3 to 21)
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (20 to 17)
#22 Penske vs. #28 Andretti (16 to 11)
#27 Andretti vs. #5 AMSP (14 to 2)
#10 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt (7 to 19)
#18 Coyne vs. #98 Andretti (10 to 15)
Conference 1 Standings:
#1 Penske 9-2
#9 Ganassi 9-2
#12 Penske 7-4
#30 RLLR 6-5
#15 RLLR 5-6
#55 Coyne 4-7
#7 AMSP 4-7
#20 ECR 0-11
Conference 2 Standings:
#10 Ganassi 10-1
#28 Andretti 8-3
#18 Coyne 7-4
#22 Penske 6-5
#5 AMSP 6-5
#98 Andretti 3-8
#27 Andretti 2-9
#14 Foyt 1-10
Where are we at?
Somehow, Felix Rosenqvist is 10-1 in head-to-head matchups. I went over his incredible run to start the year back in July. Since, Rosenqvist went 4-0.
Meanwhile, Simon Pagenaud has lost four consecutive matchups, while Ryan Hunter-Reay went 4-0 and Santino Ferrucci went 3-1, putting Hunter-Reay into the second playoff spot from Conference 2 ahead of Ferrucci and Pagenaud is tied with Patricio O'Ward and O'Ward went 3-1 in his last four matchups.
In Conference 1, Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden have gone 4-0 since July. Will Power, Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato have all gone 2-2 since.
Because of the nature of the standings, Rosenqvist is all but a lock, just needing one win over the final three matchups. The door is still open for the second spot between Hunter-Reay, Ferrucci, Pagenaud and O'Ward.
Conference 1 is a runaway. Because Dixon and Newgarden face each other in the final week, the worst either can do is 10-4, meaning one of them is assured a playoff spot. Even if the other loses out, only Power or Rahal could make it. Dixon beat Rahal and Power twice, so tiebreaker to Dixon in both cases. Dixon is pretty much locked in, even if it all goes wrong. Newgarden split with Rahal and is up 1-0 on Power with those two meeting again in the penultimate week.
In case of a tie in the head-to-head meetings, the second tiebreaker is overall victory total and Newgarden is sitting with two victories with three races left.
What about the relegation battle?
It is over in Conference 1. The #20 Ed Carpenter Racing entry is relegated because it is 0-11 in matchups this year! Last year, Zach Veach in the #26 Andretti Autosport entry had something similar. Veach started 0-11 last year before winning at Iowa and that was his only victory.
After starting 0-7, the #20 ECR entry lost in "500" qualifying to Newgarden, the "500" itself to Sato and lost to Álex Palou and Power at Gateway. With three weeks left, the #20 ECR entry is four back of Palou and Oliver Askew. It's over!
In Conference 2, it is wide-open, a three-horse race. Two matchups separate Marco Andretti, Alexander Rossi and the #14 A.J. Foyt Racing entry with three to play. Andretti got a big win in Indianapolis 500 qualifying, over Rossi nonetheless, but he was only 1-3 over his last four matchups. Rossi's season from hell continues. He went 0-4 in his last four matchups. Andretti holds the tiebreaker over Rossi. Three times Rossi has finished in the top ten for a matchup and lost this season!
The #14 Foyt entry is 1-10, way closer than Rossi would like. Rossi is up 1-0 on the #14 Foyt entry after beating Tony Kanaan in Texas qualifying. It is slated for Rossi to face the #14 entry in the first Mid-Ohio race. That could decide relegation right there. Rossi wins, it is over. If Dalton Kellett wins, it could go to the wire, the two entries would be level with two matchups remaining, though Rossi would likely hold the tiebreaker with a better race finish this season.
The #14 Foyt entry started 0-7, but Tony Kanaan beat Pagenaud in Indianapolis 500 qualifying. Kanaan then lost his final three matchups.
League Two Results:Week 1:
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR (14 to 21)
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR (24 to 17)
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt (19 to 12)
Week 2:
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR (7 to 19)
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR (22 to 16)
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 11)
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
Week 3:
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt (5 to 18)
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR (14 to 17)
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (16 to 12)
Week 4:
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt (5 to 11)
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (13 to 16)
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (17 to 23)
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (Walkover)
Week 5:
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin (5 to 15)
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR (16 to 4)
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR (10 to 17)
Week 6:
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti (19 to 23)
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin (20 to 8)
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR (17 to 9)
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (Walkover)
Week 7:
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR (17 to 19)
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin (20 to 13)
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR (7 to 9)
Week 8:
#88 AHSR vs. #8 CGR (10 to 11)
#21 ECR vs. #60 MSR (6 to 20)
#26 Andretti vs. #4 Foyt (17 to 29)
#59 Carlin vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
Week 9:
#88 AHSR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#21 ECR vs. #4 Foyt (18 to 20)
#26 Andretti vs. #60 MSR (9 to 15)
#59 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (17 to 32)
Week 10:
#88 AHSR vs. #4 Foyt (4 to 13)
#21 ECR vs. #26 Andretti (6 to 21)
#59 Carlin vs. #60 MSR (10 to 11)
#31 Carlin vs. #8 CGR (Walkover)
Week 11:
#88 AHSR vs. #59 Carlin (6 to 8)
#21 ECR vs. #31 Carlin (Walkover)
#26 Andretti vs. #8 CGR (22 to 23)
#4 Foyt vs. #60 MSR (18 to 13)
League Two standings:
#88 AHSR 10-1
#59 Carlin 7-4
#21 ECR 7-4
#8 Ganassi 6-5
#60 MSR 5-6
#26 Andretti 5-6
#4 Foyt 4-7
#31 Carlin 0-11
Is promotion secured for the #88 Andretti Harding Steinbrenner Racing entry?
Yes! Though only three victories clear over third with three to go, because the #59 Carlin entry and the #21 Ed Carpenter Racing entry will meet in the penultimate weekend, only one of those two entries, and not both, can finish ahead of the #88 AHSR entry, which means the worst Herta can finish is second and he will take up one of the promotion spots.
What about the other final promotion spot?
It could come down to that penultimate weekend matchup, but Marcus Ericsson is a victory back and should face Rinus VeeKay in the first Mid-Ohio weekend, which could drag Ericsson right back into the fight.
Jack Harvey and Zach Veach are both guaranteed one victory because they each have the #31 Carlin in the final three weeks. It is not a guarantee victory if Carlin rolls that car out, but it likely will be a win for each Harvey and Veach. Veach will face the #59 Carlin entry in the final week. VeeKay ends with Herta. That second spot is still up for grabs.
Tentative Remaining Schedule
League One
Week 12 (MID-OHIO):
#1 Penske vs. #7 AMSP
#9 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR
#12 Penske vs. #55 Coyne
#30 RLLR vs. #15 RLLR
#22 Penske vs. #98 Andretti
#27 Andretti vs. #14 Foyt
#10 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP
#28 Andretti vs. #18 Coyne
Week 13 (MID-OHIO):
#1 Penske vs. #12 Penske
#9 Ganassi vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #20 ECR
#55 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP
#22 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi
#27 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #14 Foyt
#5 AMSP vs. #98 Andretti
Week 14 (HARVEST GP):
#1 Penske vs. #9 Ganassi
#12 Penske vs. #30 RLLR
#15 RLLR vs. #55 Coyne
#20 ECR vs. #7 AMSP
#22 Penske vs. #27 Andretti
#10 Ganassi vs. #28 Andretti
#18 Coyne vs. #5 AMSP
#14 Foyt vs. #98 Andretti
League Two
Week 12:
#88 AHSR vs. #60 MSR
#21 ECR vs. #8 CGR
#26 Andretti vs. #31 Carlin
#59 Carlin vs. #4 Foyt
Week 13:
#88 AHSR vs. #26 Andretti
#21 ECR vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #8 CGR
#31 Carlin vs. #60 MSR
Week 14:
#88 AHSR vs. #21 ECR
#26 Andretti vs. #59 Carlin
#4 Foyt vs. #31 Carlin
#8 CGR vs. #60 MSR
Matchups to Watch
League One:
Mid-Ohio I: Rossi vs. Kellett, Hunter-Reay vs. Ferrucci, Sato vs. Rahal
Mid-Ohio II: Newgarden vs. Power, Pagenaud vs. Rosenqvist
Harvest Grand Prix I: Newgarden vs. Dixon, Power vs. Sato, Pagenaud vs. Rossi, Rosenqvist vs. Hunter-Reay, Ferrucci vs. O'Ward
League Two:
Mid-Ohio I: Herta vs. Harvey, VeeKay vs. Ericsson
Mid-Ohio II: VeeKay vs. Chilton
Harvest Grand Prix I: Herta vs. VeeKay, Veach vs. Chilton, Ericsson vs. Harvey
I plan on doing one final catchup, after the Harvest Grand Prix and then tie up loose ends and look to 2021 after St. Petersburg.
