After a delayed start until July, Formula One has made it through its first eight races and nine races remain over the next 14 weeks. Six tracks hosted the first eight races, two were held doubleheaders and all the tracks were on the original schedule. Moving forward, only three of the final nine tracks were on the original schedule. Three of the tracks have not held a Formula One race in the turbo-hybrid era. Three tracks have never hosted Formula One before.
There has not been an abundance of surprises in the first half of the 2020 season, but we have seen a few different drivers on the top step of the podium, one driver miss a pair of races due to contracting the covid-19 virus, and the first half ended with an unpredictable race and a first-time winner.
We are going to look over the championship, as it approaches the end of summer, see who is having a good season, who is lost and how the rest of the season will play out.
Has Lewis Hamilton Locked Up the Championship?
Yeah, pretty much.
With nine races to, Hamilton has 164 points and a 47-point lead over Valtteri Bottas. Max Verstappen is third, 54 points behind Hamilton and those are the only three drivers to crack 100 points through eight races. Lance Stroll and Lando Norris are tied for fourth, both on 107 points off Hamilton with the tiebreaker going to Stroll.
Of the top three, they have all finished on the podium six times. The difference is Hamilton has five victories and he has finished in the points of every race, Bottas had one finish outside the points when his tire failed late in the British Grand Prix and Verstappen has suffered two retirements.
The races that have gotten away from Hamilton have not been from driver error or mechanical failure. He took a three-grid spot penalty for the Austrian Grand Prix drop him to fifth and he probably should have finished third but got a five-second penalty for contact with Alexander Albon. At Italy, Hamilton didn't see the pit lane was closed, went to the rear of the field and drove from 17th to seventh over the final 26 laps.
Bottas deserved the Austrian Grand Prix and Verstappen and Red Bull got it right for the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix, but there is not a race that Hamilton lucked into. All five of his victories have been from pole position. Nobody is close enough to take the title away from him.
With nine races to go and 234 points left on the table, Hamilton is going to win at least four of the final nine races. That is another 100 points to him. Just give Hamilton the 100 points and let's say he doesn't score points in the other five races, can Bottas score 148 points over nine races or could Verstappen score 155 points over nine races?
Probably not, but it would not be impossible. Bottas could win those other five races, giving him 125 points, meaning he would just need 23 points over the other four races, and if Verstappen did the same the Dutchman would only need 30 points over the other four races, but Hamilton is not going to fail score in five races. He has scored points in 41 consecutive races, 96 of the last 100 races and 122 of 129 races in the turbo-hybrid era. The field would be lucky if he fails to score in two of the final nine races. Even if Hamilton doesn't finish on the podium in at least three of the final nine races, he is at worst finishing fourth or fifth and scoring 12 or ten points.
Hamilton is going to get his seventh World Drivers' Championship this year. He will get the all-time Grand Prix victories record shortly, as he only needs three more to surpass Michael Schumacher's 91 victories. It is not a matter of if, but when.
Has Pierre Gasly Done Enough to Return to Red Bull?
A victory in the Italian Grand Prix for AlphaTauri has probably earned Gasly a second chance at Red Bull.
We need to acknowledge Gasly benefitted from circumstances at Monza. First, it was stopping before Kevin Magnussen pulled over about 100 yards from pit lane entry even though it appeared forward momentum would have gotten Magnussen into the pit lane and he didn't have to park on the edge of the circuit to bring out a safety car.
Second, Hamilton and no one at Mercedes seeing the pit lane was closed. If Hamilton sees that, no problem, he stays out, he likely drops to fourth and if Hamilton could go from 17th to seventh in 26 laps, he would have had no problem going from fourth to first in the same number of circuits.
Third, Lance Stroll got a free pit stop to change tires under the red flag and he immediately coughed up the lead and slid back to fourth on that restart. That race was set up on a silver platter for Stroll and he immediately faded.
All that said, Gasly has been good this year and has carried over the momentum found after he was demoted to then-Scuderia Toro Rosso at the end of 2019. In a handful of races, Gasly has been competitive to Alexander Albon, the man who replaced him at Red Bull. Gasly and AlphaTauri put the car in the position where it could have won at Monza. Albon kept blowing the first chicane and dropping down the field.
Even before the race, Gasly was only a spot behind Albon on the grid and within a tenth of the Thai driver. Gasly has made Q3 on five occasions, one fewer than Albon. He qualified ahead of Albon three times, all times when Albon failed to make Q3. The Monza victory does inflate Gasly's points total, 25 of 43 points come from one race. He had only 18 points from the first seven races, while Albon had 30 more.
However, if Gasly is finishing within two spots of Albon, which he has done in three races, in an AlphaTauri, and these are all races where Albon is finishing sixth or worse, doesn't one think Gasly could get more out of the Red Bull now than Albon?
Albon hasn't done much wrong, but it is the curse of the second Red Bull seat. If you are not within touching distance of Verstappen, you look like a failure even if you are finishing in the top five or six. Albon's pace is lacking to Verstappen's. Verstappen has started on the first two rows in six races and Albon has only done it once and that was after Hamilton was moved back to fifth because of his three-grid spot penalty.
Swapping Albon and Gasly again does not necessarily mean Red Bull has solved the problem and can have two challengers to Mercedes, but Red Bull is quick on the trigger and if Gasly follows up his Monza victory with a few more strong races, the team will make the call.
One definite thing we can say about Red Bull's four drivers is Daniil Kvyat is fourth of four and he will likely be shown the door at the end of 2020. Kvyat has four points from eight races. He has not made it to Q3 once.
Has Racing Point Simultaneously Overachieved and Underachieved?
You know what? They absolutely have.
With a car that bears a striking resemblance to last year's Mercedes, Racing Point has been doing better than last year, having scored 82 points from eight races, nine more points than the team scored over the entire 2019 season.
Racing Point has actually scored 97 points this season but saw a 15-point deduction after a protest from Renault regarding the legality of the car was upheld due to its brake ducts being too similar to last year's Mercedes.
While overachieving, Racing Point could probably have more. Sergio Pérez has finished worse than his starting position in four of six starts. Lance Stroll was third at Monza, but Stroll had the aforementioned free tire change while leading and could only manage a third-place finish. Even though Racing Point lost 15 points, it would still be fourth in the World Constructors' Championship with those 15 points.
McLaren has two podium finishes this season. Racing Point, in an unofficial year-old car, has one. Racing Point is ahead of Ferrari, which it deserves credit for even if Ferrari's engines saw a reduction of power due to possible regulation breaches. I am not saying Racing Point should be competing with Mercedes and Red Bull, but when looking at the practice and qualifying results and comparing it to Racing Point's race results, it could be better.
Will Carlos Sainz, Jr. Regret Leaving McLaren?
Probably for 2021, but either Ferrari will develop a better engine for next year after Ferrari was punished this year after possible fuel flow sensor tampering during the 2019 season, or when the new regulations come out in 2022, Ferrari will be back at the top.
Right now, Sainz, Jr. is preparing to leave McLaren, who is third in the World Constructors' Championship, has two podium finishes and scored points on 12 out of 16 possible occasions, for the team that has scored 37 fewer points, has gotten points on nine of 16 possible occasions, and was woefully slow at Spa-Francorchamps and Monza.
That is a tough pill to swallow, but Sainz, Jr.' regret could be short lived, and we are not sure how McLaren will do in 2021, when it switches to Mercedes engines with a car designed for a Renault engine. So Sainz, Jr., might actually be making a great move even if the Ferrari is a bad car.
McLaren should be feeling good though. Sainz, Jr. has been strong. Lando Norris scored a podium and fastest lap at the season opener and Norris is fifth in the championship. This has been a good year, and perhaps the team will figure out how to fit a Mercedes engine into that car and increase its competitiveness in 2021.
How is Renault Doing?
Fine. The French outfit has 71 points and will be changing its name to Alpine next year.
Daniel Ricciardo has a pair of fourth-place finishes and is 11 points ahead of Esteban Ocon. Ocon has held his own. He had an extended layoff because of the pandemic, tacking on another four months onto his sabbatical from a grand prix grid.
It has been a good run for the team, not great, but not terrible either. Everything is a skewed after Pierre Gasly's victory. Gasly is now two points ahead of Ricciardo and Ocon sits on 30 points. I think Ricciardo will gain a few spots in the championship. I am not sure both drivers can make into the top ten of the championship.
Can We Talk About the Customer Ferrari Teams at Once?
Yes, because Alfa Romeo has scored two points from Antonio Giovinazzi's ninth at the season opener and Kevin Magnussen scored Haas' only point with a tenth at Hungary.
Kimi Räikkönen and Romain Grosjean are scoreless through eight races. There is no point going on any further with these two teams.
Is Williams Doing Better?
Williams is quicker, but it continues to struggle for points and Williams is the only scoreless team through eight races.
George Russell remains highly touted and Nicholas Latifi has been respectable, in fact, Latifi is ahead of Russell in the world championship based on Latifi's two 11th place finishes, while Russell's best result is 12th.
Russell has shown incredible pace in the car, qualifying as high as 12th at the Styrian Grand Prix and Hungary, and also making it to Q2 for the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix and Belgium. Latifi did make it to Q2 at Hungary. Unfortunately, the team is stuck in 15th and 16th once a race begins. I had hopes we could see a few races this year where Williams could get out of Q2 and compete for ninth or tenth in the race. That could still be possible but remains unlikely.
The change has begun for the team. Dorliton Capital purchased the team last month and Claire Williams and Sir Frank Williams stepped away from management roles immediately after the Italian Grand Prix. This shouldn't cause any change in form this year, but Williams is under new management and entering a great unknown for the team.
Has Nico Hülkenberg Been the Best German Driver This Season?
Yes, because in one start after stepping in for a covid-19 stricken Sergio Pérez at Racing Point, Hülkenberg was seventh in the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix and he is averaging six points per start. Sebastian Vettel has 16 points from eight races, averaging two points per start.
It could be better for Hülkenberg had the car not failed in the garage prior to the British Grand Prix.
Joking aside, though Hülkenberg deserves praise for his substitute role, Vettel cannot wait for 2020 to end. Charles Leclerc is waxing Vettel this year. Vettel has not made it to Q3 in the last four races and in five of eight races. His best finish is sixth.
A lot of things have gone against Vettel this year. First, there is the Ferrari engine debacle and he is left with a weaker car. Second, Charles Leclerc took number one status from Vettel in the team at the end of last year. Leclerc is the future and Vettel is the past. Third, Vettel is a lame duck driver with Sainz, Jr. signed for 2021. Fourth, Ferrari is a poorly managed team. It constantly gets in its own way and after everything that happened last year in Interlagos, the two cars take each other out on lap one in the second race of 2020. They didn't learn from past mistakes and the Styrian Grand Prix was not going to be a banner for Ferrari, but it could have picked up four to 14 points and Ferrari is only ten points behind Renault in the constructors' battle. That incident could have ramifications long exceed the Styrian Grand Prix weekend.
Vettel couldn't have completely lost it. He won fourth consecutive World Drivers' Championships within the last decade. He is third all-time in victories. He is only 33 years old. There is still a capable grand prix race winning driver there. His confidence is shot, and it is tough to see a team capable of winning races giving him a call. The question remains, what does Vettel do for 2021? Is he ready to scrap with a lower team or is he willing to step away, possibly for a year or possibly for good?
What Drivers Currently Outside Formula One Could End Up on the Grid in 2021?
This is a little look at the best in Formula Two and other forms of motorsports this year, but it also takes into consideration who could be sent packing after this year.
What do we know about the 2021 grid?
Hamilton remains unsigned, but Bottas will be back for Mercedes.
Red Bull has Verstappen locked up through 2023.
Leclerc and Sainz, Jr. are set at Ferrari.
Ricciardo takes Sainz Jr,'s seat at McLaren next to Norris.
Fernando Alonso will join Ocon at the newly renamed Alpine and Alonso is on the books for at least two years with an option for a third.
In all likelihood, Lance Stroll will remain at Racing Point, which will become Aston Martin in 2021.
That means we have nine open seats.
Albon and Gasly will likely be back in the Red Bull fold, it is just a matter of who is Verstappen's teammate, who is at AlphaTauri or could both be at AlphaTauri and Red Bull make a splash signing? Those are at least two seats to cross off.
With both Ferrari seats taken and the 2020 cars being run in 2021, Hamilton isn't leaving Mercedes, unless Red Bull throws a lot of money at him or Hamilton decides to retire with seven championships and the most grand prix victories all-time. I don't think Hamilton is done yet and he will be back with Mercedes.
That leaves six seats.
The four drivers at Alfa Romeo and Haas could all be gone. They likely all should be gone, but at least two will end up staying. Somehow, Räikkönen will stay at Alfa Romeo. I can't imagine how either Magnussen or Grosjean return to Haas, but one of them will.
Ferrari also has a slew of young drivers coming up the pipeline. Callum Ilott leads the Formula Two championship on 149 points and I would say Ilott has been the best Formula Two driver this year. Mick Schumacher has emerged in Formula Two over the last four rounds and Schumacher is second in that championship on 143 points. Schumacher seems to be the driver penciled in as a possible Alfa Romeo driver next year. Schumacher's Prema teammate Robert Shwartzman has also won multiple races, won Formula Three title last year and he is three points behind Schumacher.
If Ilott wins the championship, it forces Ferrari's hand, because the Formula Two champion cannot return for the following season. Ilott could end up at either Alfa Romeo or Haas. I could see both Prema drivers moving up to Formula One next year, with Schumacher being the more likely of the two because of his last name. Both could end up at Alfa Romeo with Ilott going to Haas. They could be split, one going to Alfa Romeo and the other heading to Haas. Neither could move up because both teams retain their lineups. It feels like at least one Ferrari junior driver is moving up, who and where are the unanswered questions.
Yuki Tsunoda is fourth in Formula Two on 123 point and not only is Tsunoda a Red Bull junior driver, he also has the backing of Honda and since Honda returned to Formula One in 2015 it has not had one of its drivers get a chance in a Formula One seat. Tsunoda could end up at AlphaTauri.
Another possible Honda option is Super Formula and Super GT champion Naoki Yamamoto, who drove for Toro Rosso at Suzuka last year in Friday practice. Yamamoto is a stretch, and he has expressed contentment staying in Japan, but he cannot be entirely ruled out.
This leaves the second Aston Martin seat and it seems to come down to this. If Vettel wants it, it is his. If Vettel goes elsewhere, the team will keep Pérez.
While looking at all these young drivers potentially entering and drivers shuffling around, we cannot forget Nico Hülkenberg. Hülkenberg stepped into a fairly good car but with no testing time and after not being in a Formula One car since the 2019 season concluded and immediately was up to speed with Stroll. Hülkenberg qualified third for the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix while Stroll, who had been in the car in February testing and had run four grand prix, was sixth.
Hülkenberg has to be a sleeper for a 2021 grid spot, though the landing potential landing spot remains unclear.
Could We See Another Monza?
As likely as it might be that Mercedes wins six or seven of the final nine races, there are more unknowns than knows.
Sochi, Bahrain and Abu Dhabi are the only knowns. We know Nürburgring, Imola and Istanbul, but not with these turbo-hybrid cars and we don't know how these Pirelli tires will wear at those tracks, especially in October and November. Mugello, Portimão and Bahrain's perimeter circuit are complete unknowns. There was some testing at Mugello eight years ago, but those were different cars.
Mercedes is going to be strong everywhere. Red Bull could win a few races. However, could we see a race that is shaken up because of safety car periods? Could we see McLaren come out strong at Imola and contend for a podium? Could Racing Point be third and fourth at Mugello? What happens if we get a wet race at the Nürburgring in October?
There are too many unknowns to think the remaining nine races will be predictable. The top teams are still going to be the top teams and will win majority of the races, but we will be racing at new tracks in different climates than we are used to racing at and that leaves the door open for one or two mesmerizing races.
