Despite not hosting a race from March 8 to May 17, the NASCAR Cup Series playoff begin on schedule at Darlington Raceway for the Southern 500.
Twenty-six races are in the book and 16 drivers remain vying for a championship.
This year's playoff begins two weeks earlier than past seasons and there are two new tracks in the final ten races compared to 2019. Each cutoff race is different from the prior year and for the first time since 2001, the season finale is not at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Thirteen drivers have returned to the playoffs after making it in 2019. Two drivers this year are making their playoff debuts. How does this field stack up? Who could go the distance and make it to the finale? Who will struggle to get out of round one? Let's meet the drivers and how they line up entering the playoffs.
1. Kevin Harvick - 2057 points
Victories: 7 (Darlington 1, Atlanta, Pocono I, Indianapolis, Michigan I and II, Dover II)
Top Fives: 17
Top Tens: 21
Darlington I Result: 1st
Darlington II Result: 3rd
Richmond Average Finish: 9.8 (Three victories, 15 top fives, 25 top tens, 38 starts)
Bristol I Result: 11th
What are his expectations: Final four.
Harvick won seven of 26 races and he was in the top ten for 21 of 26 races. His worst finish was 26th at Homestead and that is a track we are not returning to. In fact, the tracks where Harvick's worst three finishes have come at are not in the playoffs (Homestead, Daytona road course and Daytona oval).
Harvick has made the final four in five of six years. This year, he was the regular season champion. He was running at the finish of every race. Round one sets up nicely for Harvick. He won at Darlington in May and he has a good record at the two short tracks. His playoff points should be enough to fall back on to advance to round two. He has won at Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte roval are question marks but his playoff points could carry him there as well and then the semifinal round is Kansas, Texas and Martinsville. He has won the Texas playoff race three consecutive years.
Final four is the minimum. When you have had a season this good, anything but a championship will feel like failure.
2. Denny Hamlin - 2047 points
Victories: 6 (Daytona 500, Darlington II, Homestead, Pocono II, Kansas, Dover I)
Top Fives: 15
Top Tens: 17
Darlington I Result: 5th
Darlington II Result: 1st
Richmond Average Finish: 9.1 (Three victories, 13 top fives, 17 top tens, 27 starts)
Bristol I Result: 17th
What are his expectations: Final four.
Take everything for Harvick and apply it to Hamlin. Hamlin heads into the playoffs with his last eight finishes being first, second, sixth, second, second, first, 19th and third. He has led the second-most laps this season. He is one of three drivers averaging a top ten finish this year. It is top four or bust for him. He has been that good this year.
The first round is suited to Hamlin. He already has a victory at Darlington this year, he runs well in his home state of Virginia, and Bristol is the one question, but Hamlin should be safe before Bristol. Vegas is a weak spot for Hamlin, but he has finished in the top five of all three plate races this year and four consecutive top fives going back to last year... which means he is due for a bad result. The Charlotte roval has not been kind to Hamlin, but he was second on the Daytona road course and he was in the top five at Sonoma and Watkins Glen last year. Hamlin won the Kansas playoff race last year. He is good at Texas and he has seven consecutive top ten finishes in the Martinsville playoff race.
Hamlin will be fine, but like Harvick, anything shot of a championship will feel like failure. After all of Hamlin's close calls, this feels destined to be his year.
3. Brad Keselowski - 2029 points
Victories: 3 (Coca-Cola 600, Bristol, Loudon)
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 19
Darlington I Result: 13th
Darlington II Result: 4th
Richmond Average Finish: 12.7 (One victory, five top fives, 11 top tens, 21 starts)
Bristol I Result: 1st
What are his expectations: Round of eight.
I don't think Keselowski's season is as impressive as three victories sound. He won the Coca-Cola 600 after Chase Elliott decided to pit before the final restart when clear air was king. Even Elliott wasn't in the best car that night, Alex Bowman was and Martin Truex, Jr. was second-best. Then throw in Bristol, where Joey Logano ran into Chase Elliott and allowed Keselowski to drive-through to victory with two laps to go. Keselowski did lead over 100 laps in that race, but so did Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney was taken out while in the top five. In another world, where Chase Elliott's team doesn't beat itself and Joey Logano doesn't go in with reckless abandon, Keselowski has one victory and I think we are all seeing him as a dark horse for the top four.
Keselowski has not had a top five in the last five races. In the second half of the regular season, he had only three top five finishes. Since winning at Loudon, he has led ten laps. First round shouldn't be a problem, and neither should be the second. That semifinal round is a toss-up and with two 1.5-mile ovals, Keselowski's only top five finishes on intermediate tracks were his Charlotte victory and second at Kansas. He has been good on 1.5-mile ovals, but not great and in the semifinal round, he will need to be great.
4. Joey Logano - 2022 points
Victories: 2 (Las Vegas, Phoenix)
Top Fives: 6
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 18th
Darlington II Result: 6th
Richmond Average Finish: 11.1 (Two victories, nine top fives, 12 top tens, 22 starts)
Bristol I Result: 21st
What are his expectations: Round of eight.
For the second straight year, Logano enters the playoffs on a drought, only this one is longer. Logano has not won since the pandemic delay. Last year, he led the championships after his victory at Michigan in June and didn't win again all season, flaming out in the semifinal round. Like Keselowski, Logano had only three top five finishes in the last 13 races. He has led in eight of the last 13 races, but his most laps led in a single race was 36 at Daytona last week.
Logano should get through round one. He could get tripped up in round two. Keselowski got tripped up in round two last year. Logano's finishes in round two last year were 34th, 11th and 17th. He has been good, but not fantastic at Charlotte. His saving grace is Las Vegas and Talladega. Then there is the semifinal round. He led 234 laps at Martinsville in June. You cannot rule him out to make the championship race at Phoenix, but it doesn't feel like he will make the top four. It would not be a surprise, but it doesn't feel likely heading into September.
5. Chase Elliott - 2020 points
Victories: 2 (Charlotte II, Daytona Road Course)
Top Fives: 10
Top Tens: 15
Darlington I Result: 4th
Darlington II Result: 38th
Richmond Average Finish: 12.8 (Zero victories, two top fives, three top tens, nine starts)
Bristol I Result: 22nd
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four.
Elliott has been pretty consistent in his career. In his first four Cup seasons, his top five totals were ten, 12, 11 and 11. His top ten totals were 17, 21, 21 and 15. He is knocking on the door for a personal best in top fives and could push a personal best in top tens.
Last year, he was horrendous in the semifinal round after scrapping through round two. I am worried about round one. His fallback in round two is the Charlotte roval. It is a matter of can he breakthrough and beat Harvick and Hamlin when it matters most in that semifinal round. I think he will be there. It is going to be tough to get over the line.
6. Martin Truex, Jr. - 2014 points
Victories: 1 (Martinsville)
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 17
Darlington I Result: 6th
Darlington II Result: 10th
Richmond Average Finish: 17.9 (Two victories, five top fives, 11 top tens, 28 starts)
Bristol I Result: 20th
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four.
This has been another solid season from Truex. The only difference is his only victory was Martinsville in June. He does have eight consecutive top five finishes heading into Darlington and he has nine top fives in the last ten races. Kentucky got away from him. He had a good shot at the first Dover race and the Daytona road course maybe got away from him because of a speeding penalty.
Other than Talladega, there is no weak spot for Truex in the playoffs. He won swept the Richmond races last year. He won at Las Vegas last year and he has won the last two Martinsville races. There is a version of this playoffs where Truex wins at Richmond, follows it up with another Vegas victory, wins Kansas off the bat in the semifinal round and he is the first driver locked into the final race. It probably will not be as simple as that. He has finished in the top two of the championship the last three years and he has made the championship race four of the last five years. Extending that streak will be hard, but not impossible.
7. Ryan Blaney - 2013 points
Victories: 1 (Talladega)
Top Fives: 8
Top Tens: 11
Darlington I Result: 16th
Darlington II Result: 21st
Richmond Average Finish: 25.5 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, eight starts)
Bristol I Result: 40th
What are his expectations: Round of eight, but possible second round elimination.
Blaney looked strong through the first half of the season. He was as high as second in points at Texas but dropped to sixth at the end of the regular season. He has one top five finish in the last 13 races. He has nine finishes outside the top ten in the last 13 races. This is a guy heading in cold to a first round that features Darlington, his fifth-worst track and Richmond, his worst track.
Blaney should accidentally make the second round. He is better than Austin Dillon, Cole Custer, Matt DiBenedetto, Alex Bowman, Aric Almirola and William Byron. All he has to do is be average. In the second round, he has to step it up. The inaugural Charlotte roval race was gifted to him and he has won the last two Talladega races, but fortunate is not always going to save this guy.
8. Alex Bowman - 2009 points
Victories: 1 (Fontana)
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 8
Darlington I Result: 2nd
Darlington II Result: 18th
Richmond Average Finish: 25.6 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, eight starts)
Bristol I Result: 37th
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possible first round elimination.
Congratulations Alex Bowman, you won Fontana. You have had two top five finishes since... the first Darlington race and the second Dover race. The results have been too sporadic to think Bowman can go far. He was 11th or 12th in the championship for the eight races leading up to Daytona. He has finished fifth and seventh in the last two races. That is the only time Bowman has had consecutive top ten finishes this season.
A first-round elimination should not be a surprise for Bowman, but you just have to be average to get out of round one. There are 16 drivers, fighting for 12 spots and only ten guys can finish in the top ten each week. You can be tenth in each race and advance with comfort. He will have to have the best Richmond race of his career and one of his best Bristol days for him to move on with ease. After that, his best chance of making the semifinal round is having a Talladega or Charlotte victory fall into his lap.
9. William Byron - 2007 points
Victories: 1 (Daytona II)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 9
Darlington I Result: 35th
Darlington II Result: 12th
Richmond Average Finish: 17.2 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, four starts)
Bristol I Result: 8th
What are his expectations: First round elimination, could sneak into the round of 12.
Byron is coming in hot, off his only two top five finishes of the season and his first career Cup victory at Daytona. This streak Byron is on reminds me of a team that has to fight to make the playoffs, it is a great achievement that it made the playoffs and then immediately is bounced from the playoffs because all the emotional energy was spent just to get there.
His best Darlington finish is 12th with three finishes outside the top twenty, two are 35th-place finishes. His best Richmond finish is 12th with two finishes of 20th or worse and prior to finishing eighth at Bristol in June, his best finish was 16th. He could sneak into the next round and it would not be a surprise if he made the top 12, but this could be a quick playoffs for him.
10. Austin Dillon - 2005 points
Victories: 1 (Texas)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 11th
Darlington II Result: 20th
Richmond Average Finish: 18.7 (Zero victories, zero top fives, two top tens, 12 starts)
Bristol I Result: 6th
What are his expectations: First round elimination.
Dillon's team knew clear air would win out at Texas and it did after taking no tires on his final pit stop. His only other top five finish was fourth at Las Vegas, which came with the help of strategy late. He has only two other top ten finishes in the last 13 races.
The first round is a dream for Dillon. Darlington is his second-best track after Homestead, and Bristol and Richmond are good tracks for him. There is a case where Dillon finishes tenth, 13th and ninth and slips into the second round. He can slip into round two, but he is not going to slip into the round of eight. Eventually, you do get found out. Maybe he slips through and wins Talladega, but that round of eight separates the wheat from the chaff. In the unlikely case he makes it that far, that is when Dillon will blow away in the autumnal wind.
11. Cole Custer - 2005 points
Victories: 1 (Kentucky)
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 6
Darlington I Result: 22nd
Darlington II Result: 31st
Richmond Average Finish: 26.0 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, one start)
Bristol I Result: 35th
What are his expectations: First round elimination.
The lucky duck of the 2020 NASCAR season is Custer for his Kentucky victory. His only other top five finish was the race before that at Indianapolis. Five of his six top ten finishes did come in the last 13 races, but the first round will make quick work of Custer.
Two Darlington races in May were good practice but 500 miles on a sweltering South Carolina summer night will burn the 22-year-old out. Although, he did win the Grand National Series race last year after Denny Hamlin was disqualified. I digress, this is another level and that was only a 200-mile race last year. Three races, three mid-pack results. It will be like Custer never made the playoffs at all.
12. Aric Almirola - 2005 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 12th
Darlington II Result: 7th
Richmond Average Finish: 16.0 (Zero victories, two top fives, five top tens, 16 starts)
Bristol I Result: 29th
What are his expectations: Round of 12.
Almirola was on fire when summer started, five consecutive top five finishes and nine consecutive top ten finishes. He has cooled off with just two top ten finishes in the last six races. Almirola should do enough to be in the top 12 after these three races. He is a good driver, and no more than that.
He should skate through and then run into the second round buzzsaw. His Talladega results are encouraging but his Las Vegas results and road course results in general tell another story. Although, he has won Talladega before. Unless he wins Talladega again, he is not making the round of eight.
13. Clint Bowyer - 2004 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 17th
Darlington II Result: 22nd
Richmond Average Finish: 12.5 (Two victories, five top fives, 16 top tens, 28 starts)
Bristol I Result: 2nd
What are his expectations: Round of 12.
Bowyer has not been terrific this season, but isn't that the story of Bowyer's career, not terrific? His best finish in the last 13 races is sixth. He led the first 43 laps at Michigan because of the inversion of the starting grid and clean air is king. Other than Michigan, he hasn't led since Atlanta in June.
The first round should not be an issue for Bowyer. He probably should have won the second Darlington race in May if it were not for being hit from behind thanks to Quin Houff. He should be fine at Richmond and Bristol, but it will be tougher in the second round I don't think Bowyer has what it takes.
14. Kyle Busch - 2003 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 11
Top Tens: 13
Darlington I Result: 26th
Darlington II Result: 2nd
Richmond Average Finish: 6.8 (Six victories, 18 top fives, 22 top tens, 29 starts)
Bristol I Result: 4th
What are his expectations: Round of eight, possibly final four.
How can you have a driver who did not win one of the first 26 races as a possible final four driver?
One, because the only drivers with more top five finishes than Busch are Harvick and Hamlin. Two, because Busch has not gone more than two races without a top five finish this season. Three, Busch is returning to all the playoff tracks except Richmond and the Charlotte roval. Four, something has to break his way. He is going to pull at least one, if not more, of these races out.
We saw Tony Stewart go winless through 26 races in 2011 and then win five of ten to take the championship. The first round is Darlington, Richmond and Bristol. You don't think Busch could win all of those, let alone just one? Then it is Las Vegas, Talladega and the Charlotte roval. Ok, a tougher and more unpredictable task. The semifinal round is Kansas, Texas and Martinsville.
There is a world where Busch wins Darlington, wins Charlotte and wins Martinsville and all of a sudden, he is in Phoenix with a shot at the championship. He has made the final four in the last five seasons. Six consecutive championship race appearances is a stretch and the law of averages does start to work against him, but I don't think Busch is 14th, though that is what the initial standings tell us. He will get out of the round of 16. Look at who he has to beat! He was already ninth in the championship before the playoff reset! He might not get back to the final four, but he will be in that final eight and have a stiff at it.
15. Kurt Busch - 2001 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 4
Top Tens: 14
Darlington I Result: 3rd
Darlington II Result: 15th
Richmond Average Finish: 15.4 (Two victories, seven top fives, 15 top tens, 38 starts)
Bristol I Result: 7th
What are his expectations: Round of 12, possibly round of eight.
Kurt Busch is the king of the quietly good, yet unimpressive season. Four top five finishes are low, and he hasn't been in the top five since Kentucky. He does enter on a cold streak, four consecutive finishes outside the top ten, but Busch just needs a few good races.
Bristol is one of his best tracks. He is on a bit of a lull at Richmond, but he has five top ten finishes in his last three Darlington races. Busch had been in the top ten of the championship for all but two of the last 19 races.
Busch could be a surprise round of eight driver, but one that would not feel like a surprise. He is a past champion after all and has 31 Cup victories to his name. If he won Talladega, no one would be shocked. I think that is a stretch. The top 12 is more of his hunting ground.
16. Matt DiBenedetto - 2000 points
Victories: 0
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 7
Darlington I Result: 14th
Darlington II Result: 9th
Richmond Average Finish: 28.7 (Zero victories, zero top fives, zero top tens, ten starts)
Bristol I Result: 31st
What are his expectations: First round elimination.
Remember how I said Byron could be eliminated in round one because of emotional energy spent to make the playoffs? DiBenedetto is on empty in the emotional tank. He snuck into the playoffs at Daytona, avoiding all the accidents while Jimmie Johnson was collateral damage. This has been a good year for DiBenedetto. He has matched his career-high for top ten finishes in a season, but he has four top ten finishes in his last 13 races, and he has finished outside the top ten in the last four races.
The first round is set up for DiBenedetto. He was good at Darlington in May. Bristol is his best track. His Richmond results are surprising worse than you would think, but he could put together a good day there. There is a version of the payoffs where DiBenedetto slips into a seventh-place finish at Darlington, is 16th and not a factor at Richmond, but finishes ninth at Bristol and advances to the second round by a point or two. That could happen. I don't see it. There is a reason why he was 14th in points after 26 races. He just needs three good races, but those results will not be good enough.
Playoff Predictions
First Round Eliminations:
16. Cole Custer
15. Austin Dillon
14. Matt DiBenedetto
13. William Byron
Second Round Eliminations:
12. Alex Bowman
11. Clint Boywer
10. Aric Almirola
9. Kurt Busch
Round of Eight Eliminations:
8. Ryan Blaney
7. Brad Keselowski
6. Joey Logano
5. Kyle Busch
Final Four:
4. Chase Elliott
3. Martin Truex, Jr.
2. Denny Hamlin
1. Kevin Harvick
