Wednesday, November 25, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Chip Ganassi Racing's 2020 Season

We have made it to the final IndyCar Wrap-Up and it is the championship winning Chip Ganassi Racing. While Scott Dixon led the way, his two teammates held their own and for the first time since 2014, Ganassi had multiple drivers picked up a victory. After this 2020 season, Chip Ganassi Racing has 13 IndyCar championships and 113 IndyCar victories.

Make that six championships for Scott Dixon

Scott Dixon
In what was already going to be a historic season off the track because of the pandemic, Scott Dixon made sure it would be a historic season on the track as well. Dixon opened with three consecutive victories, something he had never done before. He picked up his 50th victory, becoming only the third driver to reach that milestone. He led the championship wire-to-wire and he became one of four drivers to complete every lap in a season. 

What objectively was his best race?
Dixon picked up four victories, including the first three races of the season at Texas, the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and the first Road America race. The fourth was at Gateway and it was Dixon's 50th career victory.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is actually a race he didn't win. It is the Indianapolis 500. 

Dixon was the best car all race, and in a season where Dixon had already won three races, finished in the top five for five of the six races and already had a 49-point lead, an Indianapolis 500 victory felt par for the course for him. We knew we were watching a historic season and an Indianapolis 500 victory would have been the cherry to top it off. 

Dixon led 111 laps from second on the grid and it was a tremendous day for him. Late in the race, Takuma Sato leapfrogged ahead of him and Dixon put together a valiant challenge to re-take the lead. Sato foiled each attempt and the late caution for Spencer Pigot's accident ended Dixon's hopes for a late overtake and for he to be the one celebrating his second Indianapolis 500 victory.

It is rare for Dixon to be the best driver in a race and not it. He had the strongest car at Texas and won and he had the strongest car in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and won by a country mile. After Alexander Rossi fell out of contention with his penalty, it felt like Dixon was set for his second Indianapolis 500 victory, but Sato stepped up to the task and took control late. 

In the way Dixon drove, Indianapolis was his best race, but because of the result, you could consider it his worst as well. He has come close to a second Indianapolis 500 victory many times. He is now third all-time in Indianapolis 500 laps led behind only Al Unser and Ralph DePalma. He has eight top five finishes in the race. Already anointed champion before the start of August, it felt like this was Dixon's year for Indianapolis glory, but he will have to wait a little longer.

What objectively was his worst race?
Dixon's worst finish of 2020 was 12th in the second Road America race. Dixon stalled on two pit stops and that dropped him from a certain top ten finish.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Though he was outside of the top ten in only one race, there was a four-race stretch between the Mid-Ohio doubleheader and the Harvest Grand Prix doubleheader where Dixon lost significant ground and he wasn't running that poorly. 

He was in the top ten in all four of those races, but his championship lead went from 96 points to 32 points. In all four of those races, qualifying didn't go his way. He was either caught out when a red flag fell or was stuck in traffic. Dixon spun out from fourth in the second Mid-Ohio race after simply clipping the grass. It could have been a day where he secured his championship lead, instead he had to fight back to slow the bleeding and his hard charge from 17th to tenth ultimately saved him seven points.

In the Harvest Grand Prix races, Dixon struggled with tires in the closing stint and fell from fifth to ninth, something uncharacteristic for him. His floor was damaged at the start of the second race and it cost him spots early on, but he rebounded to finish eighth. 

Once again, finishes of tenth, tenth, ninth and eighth were bad days for Dixon. If only we could all be so lucky.

Scott Dixon's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 1st (537 points)
Wins: 4
Podiums: 7
Top Fives: 9
Top Tens: 13
Laps Led: 340
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 2
Average Start: 9.142
Average Finish: 5.0

A promising start did not go as planned for Felix Rosenqvist

Felix Rosenqvist
For every good day Rosenqvist had in 2020, there was a bad day to cancel it out. While he did get his first career victory, there were too many days where a minor mechanical issue cost him or days where he just didn't have the pace of the top drivers. It wasn't a horrible season, but after his strong rookie outing, it definitely fell flat.

What objectively was his best race?
His first career victory! In a race that would come down to tire strategy, the second Road America race saw Rosenqvist overcome a four-second gap to Patricio O'Ward in the final stint and he made the pass for the victory with a little over a lap and a half to go.

What subjectively was his best race?
That last stint at Road America deserves praise because Rosenqvist had a few opportunities to take the lead early in the race and fell short. However, he kept showing better pace at the end of stints compared to O'Ward and that is when he would make up his time. If he could remain within four or five seconds of O'Ward after that final round of pit stops, he was always going to be a challenger for the victory.

Rosenqvist had to put together a near-flawless 15-lap string of laps to win that race. O'Ward also caught traffic at favorable times for Rosenqvist, but when push came to shove, Rosenqvist was able to take the lead and he earned that victory.

What objectively was his worst race?
Rosenqvist was collateral damage when Santino Ferrucci went off at the start of the second Mid-Ohio race and Ferrucci's return to the circuit in the middle of turn five led to contact with Palou and Rosenqvist. Ferrucci continued but Rosenqvist's day was done and he was classified in 22nd.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There were more down days in 2020 than I think Rosenqvist would have hoped for, but the worst was Texas because it should have been a second-place finish. He was coming alive late in that race and was closing in on Dixon for the lead. I don't think he would have won the race, but he should have finished second. 

He made a risky move on the outside of the lapped car of James Hinchcliffe, got into the stained portion of the race because of the PJ1 traction compound put down for the NASCAR races, which had significantly less grip, and he spun out with ten laps to go. 

It kind of set the tone for his season. Yes, Rosenqvist won three races later, but he was 20th in the first race instead of second. Six of his first seven finishes were outside the top ten. Not all those results were because of the driver, but the number of podium finishes and top five finishes were disappointing. This season was a bit of a sophomore slump when many expected Rosenqvist would backup his seventh-place championship finish from his rookie season.

Felix Rosenqvist's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 11th (306 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 24
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 9.571
Average Finish: 12.285

Marcus Ericsson's stock is rising after 2020

Marcus Ericsson
The best surprise of the 2020 season might be Ericsson. After stunning many moving to Ganassi after a wonky rookie season, Ericsson showed Ganassi knew what it was doing and improved mightily across the board. While he did not challenge the likes of Dixon, he was equal to his fellow Swede Rosenqvist.

What objectively was his best race?
It was fourth in the second Road America race.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is difficult because Ericsson had a lot of strong days, many of which were him going from the back of the grid to the front.

He used a three-stop strategy to go from 14th to sixth in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. 

He made his way from 16th to fourth in the second Road America race. 

In the first Gateway race, he started fourth, stayed in the top ten all race and finished fifth. 

At the second Mid-Ohio race, he went from 15th to fifth after great pit stops and he had better pace late to get into the top five. 

This was an encouraging year for Ericsson. He needs to improve on his qualifying form, but that didn't stop him from driving to the front. He also didn't get into many accidents, really only one.

What objectively was his worst race?
Ericsson's only accident happened 24 laps into the Indianapolis 500 and that classified him in 32nd, only ahead of James Davison, whose wheel assembly caught fire a handful of laps into the 500-mile affair.

What subjectively was his worst race?
There are two results that do not truly show how well Ericsson ran:

He was 19th at Texas after a fuel probe issue didn't get the car full on what was supposed to be his final pit stop and led him to pit an extra time, dropping him from a top ten finish. 

In the second Gateway race, he had a loose rear wing force him to make a late stop and instead of finishing again in the top ten and possibly in the top five, he finished 23rd, dead last, ten laps down.

Marcus Ericsson's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 12th (291 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 13.071
Average Finish: 12.071

An Early Look Ahead
Normally, a championship winning team does not shake things up much the following season, but Chip Ganassi Racing has been a bit of a circus. 

With Rosenqvist leaving to join the Arrow McLaren SP outfit, Ganassi has brought in Álex Palou. The team will also expand to four cars as an accommodation for Jimmie Johnson's IndyCar rookie season of road and street course races only. Tony Kanaan will fill the oval portion.

All that shuffling alone is out of the norm for Ganassi, and yet I don't think it will hamper the team all that much. Dixon will continue to be Dixon, even though he is now 40 years old. He will continue to be his consistent self and likely finish in the top three or four of the championship with a handful of victories under his belt. 

However, the one issue that has long followed Ganassi will continue into 2021 and that is Dixon carries much, if not all the weight. The hope that Rosenqvist would be the heir apparent is gone, and it was not because Rosenqvist underperformed, but rather Rosenqvist got poached. Normally, Ganassi does not have to worry about losing drivers. 

That leaves Ericsson, who did well in his sophomore season, but has yet to show the pace of a race winner. Palou is only 23 years old and his rookie season was not that dissimilar from Ericsson's rookie season, but no one is expecting Palou to immediately be a race winner. I think there is still some developing he has to do. The Spaniard could make the same leap as Ericsson did. The two drivers had very similar rookie seasons. Ericsson made a large gain joining Ganassi for his sophomore season. Palou could be poised to do the same.

Johnson is there for fun. He wants results and to be competitive, but ultimately this is a side project. There is no long-term IndyCar commitment, and nor should you expect one from a 45-year-old rookie. This is a two-year experiment and Kanaan is getting a great opportunity for victories late in his career. It is a duo that makes sense and it is another veteran driver around Johnson. 

Think about this: Johnson will have a six-time champion in Dixon, a four-time champion in Dario Franchitti and a one-time champion in Kanaan to debrief with. Add to it the great technical minds of Mike Hull, Mike Cannon and Chris Simmons, and Johnson has surrounded himself with all the right people.

With Kanaan roped into the oval for the #48 Honda, Ganassi can head into the holiday season with all its drivers known and it can firmly focus on the 2021 season. 

As long as the team has Dixon, it will be fine, but a day will soon come where Dixon will not be there and the last seven or eight years have shown us Ganassi lacks that second driver ready to step up when the top driver has an off day. Penske regularly has that and typically has three drivers ready to go. Andretti Autosport has regularly had a good one-two combo. I would say Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing is even in a good position, and yet Ganassi continues to struggle to find a second driver to match with Dixon. 

It doesn't hurt now but in the near future the team could be feeling it.