Wednesday, November 11, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Ed Carpenter Racing's 2020 Season

The fifth IndyCar Wrap-Up takes us to Ed Carpenter Racing, which had one of its better seasons since Josef Newgarden left the organization after the 2016 season. The team picked up its first rookie of the year and even returned to the podium on a road course. However, the #20 Chevrolet continued to struggle, and the two-driver veteran combination could not compete with the newcomer.

This year's young flavor was Rinus VeeKay

Rinus VeeKay
After moving up from Indy Lights, VeeKay started with a horrid season opener at Texas, but things turned around quickly. He quickly became the leading rookie and never looked back. VeeKay picked up ECR's first podium finish on a road course since 2016 and he started on pole position.

What objectively was his best race?
VeeKay ended up third in the first Harvest Grand Prix race after starting on pole position. He led 15 laps and actually dropped to fourth before putting together a late charge to get the final podium position from Colton Herta, who was struggling on the alternate tires in the closing laps.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is the first Harvest Grand Prix race. VeeKay didn't have the pace to be a race winner, but he spent the entire race in the top five and pulled out a podium finish against another fellow young star in Herta. 

We should also note VeeKay's Gateway weekend. He went from 14th to sixth in the first race, and in the second Gateway race, he went from 18th to fourth, including a daring pass on Herta late in the going. The team ran a great strategy that weekend.

What objectively was his worst race?
His first IndyCar race: 22nd at Texas after an accident on lap 37.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Texas was really bad. He had a practice accident early, which kept him from qualifying, and then he had his accident in the race after just one stint. A lot of people were believing VeeKay was going to be replaced after one weekend. He wasn't, fortunately for both him and ECR.

Indianapolis should also be noted because VeeKay was the one ECR car on point and qualified fourth. However, in the race, he botched a pit stop, drove into a crew member and it took him out of the fight. He went from a possible top ten to one-lap down in 20th. If it wasn't for all the other rookies having accident it would have cost VeeKay Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year.

Rinus VeeKay's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 14th (289 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 3
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 15
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 12.928
Average Finish: 12.5

Ed Carpenter Racing was the bad portion of Daly's season

Conor Daly
While Daly was strong in the Carlin Chevrolet, things were not as close in the ECR entry. He did not pick up one top ten finish for ECR and he finished behind VeeKay in every one of his ECR starts. 

What objectively was his best race?
With Ed Carpenter Racing, Daly's best finish was 12th in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and in the first Harvest Grand Prix race.

What subjectively was his best race?
This is a difficult question, because Daly's results with ECR were far from stellar. I would say the Grand Prix of Indianapolis because he was in top ten contention all race only to not have the grip on worn tires in the closing laps, leading him to drop to 12th.

What objectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500! Daly had an accident coming to a restart on lap 92. He spun exiting turn four and hit the interior barrier. The box score has Daly classified in 29th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Thirteenth in the first Mid-Ohio race because it was his best start on a road course all season from fourth on the grid. Over each stint he lost positions and ultimately finished 13th. It was a big chance for Daly to get his third consecutive top ten finish after scoring a pair at Gateway and he was lost. All the top eight finishers started in the top nine. The only other top ten starter to not finish in the top ten was Simon Pagenaud, who started tenth. Daly ended up finishing five spots behind VeeKay despite starting five spots ahead of him.

Conor Daly's 2020 Statistics with ECR
Championship Position: 17th (121 of 237 points with ECR)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 0
Top Tens: 0
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 15.111
Average Finish: 17.555 

It was a tough season for Ed Carpenter

Ed Carpenter
Things started well at Texas for Carpenter, but as has become regular for him, the results quickly disappeared. Rarely was Carpenter a threat for a top ten finish let alone a victory and, unlike past seasons, the magic was not there at Indianapolis.

What objectively was his best race?
The first race of the year! Carpenter went from 13th to fifth at Texas.

What subjectively was his best race?
It is Texas, because all the other races were dreadful.

What objectively was his worst race?
The Indianapolis 500, where contact on lap one with Zach Veach damaged his suspension and took him out of contention immediately. The team repaired the car, but Carpenter finished 13 laps down in 26th.

What subjectively was his worst race?
Indianapolis was bad across the board. Carpenter qualified 16th. He never showed that ECR pace we are accustomed to seeing. At no point was he a threat for victory. To have any chance of victory in the biggest race of the year erased after about a half-mile of racing is crushing. 

That is just one of many terrible days. He spun at Iowa exiting turn two. He was caught in the accident at the start of the first Gateway race and forced to use a backup car in the second Gateway race basically saw Carpenter run a 90-minute test session.

Ed Carpenter's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 25th (81 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 1
Laps Led: 0
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 16.333
Average Finish: 18.333 

An Early Look Ahead
ECR has found its new driver of the #21 Chevrolet in VeeKay. 

This is the best ECR has done since Josef Newgarden was with the team. All due respect to Spencer Pigot, who was in that car for a few seasons and had some good days, VeeKay showed a lot of potential this season and had at least four breakthrough races, while that breakthrough race never really came for Pigot. 

VeeKay will return for 2021. He could be there for another season after that, and then another team might snatch him up. He is only 20 years old and he will not turn 21 until the Friday before the Portland race next year, the penultimate race of the 2021 season. 

This was the seventh season ECR split the #20 Chevrolet between Carpenter on ovals and another driver on road/street courses, and for the seventh consecutive season I ask, what does ECR expect out of this entry? 

Does it just want race victories and nothing else or is it aiming to be as high as it possibly can be in the entrants' championship? 

Nothing has come close to that first season in 2014 when Carpenter won at Texas and Mike Conway won at Long Beach and Toronto. The two combined for the #20 Chevrolet to end up eighth in the entrants' championship. Since that season, the #20 Chevrolet has scored zero victories, three podium finishes and four top five finishes with five different drivers sharing the #20 Chevrolet with Carpenter. 

The only driver to have multiple seasons sharing the car with Carpenter was Pigot. The only driver responsible for a top five finish other than Carpenter in that entry is Luca Filippi, who was second in a CFH Racing 1-2 at Toronto behind Newgarden in 2015. 

I feel better about Daly returning than any of the other road/street course drivers before him, though Daly's results with ECR were disappointing this year. Daly turns 29 this December and has over 60 starts to his name. This was only his third full-time season in IndyCar, and he has competed in seven seasons. He has to know it is time for him to establish himself somewhere and get a team that is fully behind him if he wants to be a race winner and championship contender. 

It should be a reminder that one of Daly's teammates in Indy Lights in 2011 was Josef Newgarden. Newgarden has become a two-time IndyCar champion and regular race winner. Daly continues to struggle to find a full-time ride, but both were equals nine years ago. The difference is Newgarden won the Indy Lights title and got a great chance with Sarah Fisher and Wink Hartman. Daly was not running for the Indy Lights title, splitting his Indy Lights duties with a GP3 Series seat and pursuing a Formula One career until turning his focus to IndyCar in 2015. 

These are two careers that were at the same point in the journey nine years ago. They split off and perhaps if Daly had chosen the same route as Newgarden, it would be him at Team Penske or with another team consistently winning races. The talent is there. We have seen him take Dale Coyne Racing to the podium, score a top five with A.J. Foyt Racing and win a pole position and be a consistent top ten finisher with Carlin.

I am sure Daly would take the Carlin/ECR split again if offered, but this cannot be the long-term career move, especially if he wants to be champion. If Daly decides he needs one team to work with for a full season, ECR finds itself again having to fill the road/street course portion in the #20 entry and it has not had a good track record finding a competitive road/street course driver.

I don't expect much change from ECR in 2021. Daly's future is dependent on the Air Force sponsorship and the Air Force will decide on it during the middle of this month. 

If Daly moves, then Daly moves, we have seen ECR find another driver to fill the road/street course races and we have even seen Carpenter consider running that car only for himself at the oval races. ECR has long been the beloved underdog, but all things considered, it has been an underachiever considering all the praise it gets. It is time for a resurgence and becoming a regular mixer for race victories and top five finishes again.