Friday, November 6, 2020

IndyCar Wrap-Up: Dale Coyne Racing's 2020 Season

The third 2020 NTT IndyCar Series season wrap-up will be IndyCar's favorite little team, Dale Coyne Racing. This was not the common season for DCR. It was not a terrible season, but the team has been more accustomed to the occasional race victory and podium finish. There was one trip to the podium, but it was an otherwise underperforming year for the Illinois-based team.

Santino Ferrucci lead DCR in 2020

Santino Ferrucci
Ferrucci's sophomore season was about in line with his rookie season. He had another strong outing at Indianapolis and a few better days on road courses, but his oval results overall took a dip. For majority of the season, he remained on the cusp of the top ten in the championship.

What objectively was his best race?
Ferrucci was fourth in the Indianapolis 500 after starting 19th and he led one lap.

What subjectively was his best race?
It was Indianapolis. For the second consecutive year, Ferrucci went forward and did not put a wheel wrong. Typically, when you have an aggressive young driver the expectation is he will get away with a few things at Indianapolis and then get bit and that driver will reign it in. Through two years, Ferrucci has yet to be bit and if he gets away with it long enough, the confidence level will be high enough that there will not be a large drop off when that first notable incident occurs, if it happens. 

Ferrucci's Road America weekend should also be noted because he finished sixth in both races, including after starting sixth in the first race. 

What objectively was his worst race?
At Texas, he struggled to find a balance in the car and a bad pit stop where the right rear tire was not secured ultimately took him out late, leaving him 21st in the box score.

What subjectively was his worst race?
After a stellar qualifying run in the wet to end up second on the grid for the second Mid-Ohio race, Ferrucci went off at the start and emerged in the middle of turn five, taking out teammate Álex Palou and Felix Rosenqvist, damaging Ferrucci's car and ending any chance of a career day. 

That Mid-Ohio race was set up to possibly be something special, but that dream day was ruined two corners into the race, and it was only worse that both Coyne cars were out of it after each were second and fourth on the grid.

The first Gateway race should also be noted, because Ferrucci had worked his way into the top ten after the accident at the start and he was contending for a top five when the caution came out for a passing drizzle. Ferrucci had made his pit stop and was trapped at the rear of the field. He ended up 16th. 

He also had a blocking penalty in the second Iowa race end any hope of a positive result.

Santino Ferrucci's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 13th (290 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 0
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 5
Laps Led: 4
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 14.428
Average Finish: 12.928

Álex Palou had a respectable rookie season, but left room to improve

Álex Palou
Fresh from Japan, Palou's rookie IndyCar season had high moments, but did not see as many breakthroughs as his speed would have suggested. Though he is responsible for DCR's only podium finish in 2020, Palou did not take rookie of the year honors and he was behind his teammate in the championship.

What objectively was his best race?
The first Road America race, where Palou found himself in contention for a podium position late after starting 14th. After an intense battle with Ryan Hunter-Reay, Palou ended up third, his first career podium finish in his third career start and it was Coyne's first top five finish at Road America, let alone the team's first podium finish.

What subjectively was his best race?
The entire Road America weekend was a positive showing for Palou. He qualified third for the second race but struggled in the middle of the race and had to rally for a seventh-place finish. The first race gets a slight edge, but after a shaky start to the season, Road America was a good confidence booster.

What objectively was his worst race?
Palou had an accident exiting turn one in the Indianapolis 500 while running in the top ten and it left him with an 28th-place finish on his Indianapolis 500 debut. 

What subjectively was his worst race?
This was a difficult season for Palou, and there were a handful of races that did not go his way and truly capture his ability. 

He was an innocent bystander when Rinus VeeKay spun at Texas and collected him just after his first pit stop. Palou was quicker than his teammate at Texas and perhaps he would have finished 12th or 13th on debut instead of 23rd. 

His Iowa finishes were 11th and 14th, but he was stronger than those finishes show and maybe should have had one top ten finish. 

Indianapolis was a bummer because he was in the top ten fr most of the race after qualifying seventh. It looked like the Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year was his for the taking when he had his accident a little over 300 miles into the race. It was his only mistake in his entire time on the 2.5-mile oval and it came in the race. 

And then his teammate took him out at Mid-Ohio on lap one. That could have been another podium result. Perhaps both Coyne cars could have ended up on the podium. We will never know, but it was certainly an opportunity lost.

We have been spoiled when it comes to rookies the last few seasons in IndyCar. Palou's rookie year happened to be with some of the least favorable conditions for rookies. His debut was delayed almost three months. Let's not forget to mention, Palou had to hurry to the United States to not be locked out due to travel restrictions, leaving behind family in Spain. On the track, he had to visit majority of these places for the first time with condensed race weekends and in a lot of cases he was tossed into the deep end with doubleheaders. The results could have been better, but Palou showed something is there for his sophomore season in 2021.

Álex Palou's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 16th (238 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 1
Top Fives: 1
Top Tens: 3
Laps Led: 1
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 12.285
Average Finish: 14.785

An Early Look Ahead
The expectation was nothing would change at Coyne for 2021, however, Palou will move to Chip Ganassi Racing to take over the #10 Honda and now the picture is less clear. 

Ferrucci has been linked to an Andretti Autosport seat, though that hasn't picked up much steam in recent weeks. I think Ferrucci has a seat at Coyne as long as he wants it, but if he leaves, it puts the team in an odd spot. 

Last year, Sébastien Bourdais lost his seat because none of Bourdais' finishes contributed to the manufactures' championship. If you contribute to the manufactures' championship, Honda gives that team a bonus. Ferrucci did have finishes that contributed to the manufactures' championship, he got a bonus and moved to the #18 Honda. One year later and Palou's third at Road America counted toward the manufactures' championship while none of Ferrucci's finishes went toward Honda's score this year. 

If such bonus is what led Bourdais to lose his ride, is there a chance the same happens with Ferrucci? I don't think so, because Ferrucci has a good relationship with Coyne, Jimmy Vasser and James Sullivan. After all, the team will already have one seat to fill with Palou gone and I doubt they will want to fill two. 

There are a few drivers available to slide in along Ferrucci. James Hinchcliffe, though Hinchcliffe has ties to the Andretti Autosport camp and will likely end up at Andretti. Oliver Askew is on the outside, though Askew does not have much backing and that second Coyne seat may require funding. That second car did pick up Guaranteed Rate sponsorship in the middle of the season. I am not sure Guaranteed Rate will be around in 2021. If it is, then Coyne is looking good and it could have its choice of driver rather than needing one with a certain dollar figure. 

This is Dale Coyne Racing though, and what team is more famous for dropping in unfamiliar drivers than Coyne? It could be different in 2021 because of travel restrictions and he could be forced to hire a known IndyCar veteran. Coyne could go either way. It is hard to get a handle on what he will do. In recent years, Coyne has been good on having both its drivers known early in the offseason. I do get a feeling we could see a throwback where we do not know who is in the second car until after preseason testing in February.

Ferrucci has had some good runs on ovals, and Indianapolis Motor Speedway in particular, but with 13 of 17 races on road and street courses next year, he has to improve his road course results. This year was a step in the right direction with three top ten finishes, including a pair of sixth place results, but he has got to break into the top five and be in the top ten more regularly. 

Palou was streaky in the second car. For every race he showed blistering pace there were two where he was mired in the pack. I would expect whatever driver Coyne wants to be a step better than Palou, more consistent on road/street courses and able to turn oval speed into oval results. That second driver will need more than three top ten finishes, and probably closer to seven or eight.

This was a good year for Coyne, but there is room to improve.