We have reached the second half of IndyCar Wrap-Ups and we move into the top ten of the championship. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing strengthened its grip on the fourth spot in the unofficial IndyCar teams' power rankings because for the second consecutive season the team put both its cars in the top ten of the championship and for the sixth consecutive season RLLR won a race. It just happened to be the biggest race of them all.
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| Graham Rahal had a strong year and yet it was frustrating |
Graham Rahal
In the four previous seasons, Rahal's championship position had dropped from the year prior and a fifth-year decline would mean he would drop out of the top ten in the championship for the first time since 2014. The good news is Rahal picked up the results. He had his most podium finishes and top five finishes in a season since 2017. It got him sixth in the championship, but his winless streak continues.
What objectively was his best race?
In the second race of the 2020 season, Rahal ended up finishing second in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Adopting the two-stop strategy, Rahal led 18 laps, but a caution in the middle of the race leveled the field. Scott Dixon was able to pull away on a three-stop strategy, but Rahal solidly finished in second.
What subjectively was his best race?
This is difficult because Rahal was stout this year. This was an appealing year and one about a dozen drivers in IndyCar would take over their own results, but the one thing that eludes Rahal is a strong race where he was in contention for victory.
In the second race of the 2020 season, Rahal ended up finishing second in the Grand Prix of Indianapolis. Adopting the two-stop strategy, Rahal led 18 laps, but a caution in the middle of the race leveled the field. Scott Dixon was able to pull away on a three-stop strategy, but Rahal solidly finished in second.
What subjectively was his best race?
This is difficult because Rahal was stout this year. This was an appealing year and one about a dozen drivers in IndyCar would take over their own results, but the one thing that eludes Rahal is a strong race where he was in contention for victory.
The only race that fits that description was the Grand Prix of Indianapolis and one caution threw off the rhythm of the race. Once that caution came out there was no way Rahal was going to beat Dixon. If the race stays green, I think Rahal holds on and wins on a two-stop strategy.
He only led 41 laps this season, 18 were in that IMS road course race and 13 of those came in the second Iowa race, where he went from 19th to third. Rahal caught a break in that Iowa race when he stopped prior to the caution for Ed Carpenter's accident, but he was moving forward the entire night. He also finished third in the Indianapolis 500, but that has to be somewhat painful because Sato won that race and while Rahal keeps being close to triumph, Sato pulls out victories, even when Rahal has been the better driver all season.
What objectively was his worst race?
In the second Road America race, Rahal was taken out in the first corner accident with Ryan Hunter-Reay and he ended up 23rd.
What subjectively was his worst race?
The entire Gateway weekend.
Unlike Iowa, where Rahal was able to find something as the weekend went along and turned it into a third-place finish at the end of it all, the team conceded before the second race started and said it was using it as a 200-lap test session.
Rahal retired in the first race after gearbox issues from 22nd on the grid and he started 23rd and finished 20th, two laps down in the second race.
To make matters worse, his teammate Takuma Sato was on point for the entire Gateway weekend. Sato nearly pulled off victory in the first race, making a daring pass on the outside of Patricio O'Ward for second and then chasing down and keeping Scott Dixon honest only to finish second. Sato then started on pole position for the second Gateway race, led 66 laps, but drifted out of contention for the victory. With four laps to go, Sato brushed the wall while running seventh. He was able to continue and because of how late the caution occurred, it ended the race. All Sato lost was two spots and he ended up ninth.
Graham Rahal's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 6th (377 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 41
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 12.214
Average Finish: 9.714
Championship Position: 6th (377 points)
Wins: 0
Podiums: 3
Top Fives: 5
Top Tens: 9
Laps Led: 41
Poles: 0
Fast Sixes: 1
Fast Twelves: 1
Average Start: 12.214
Average Finish: 9.714
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| Takuma Sato continues to improve |
Takuma Sato
Sato's late bloomer career continues. At 43 years old, in his 11th IndyCar season, Sato picked up his career-best championship finish, ending up seventh. It was not all roses. He missed the season opener at Texas after a qualifying accident, but the results were good, and a second Indianapolis 500 victory was the cherry on top of this season.
What objectively was his best race?
That would be Sato's second Indianapolis 500 victory. This one was after leading 27 of the final 44 laps when he passed Scott Dixon on a restart and then held him off during a pit cycle and in the closing charge to the line. When pseudo-teammate Spencer Pigot had his accident off of turn four with five laps to go, it sealed Sato a promotion in the pantheon of excellence.
What subjectively was his best race?
It has to be Indianapolis, though that first Gateway race deserves a mention.
That would be Sato's second Indianapolis 500 victory. This one was after leading 27 of the final 44 laps when he passed Scott Dixon on a restart and then held him off during a pit cycle and in the closing charge to the line. When pseudo-teammate Spencer Pigot had his accident off of turn four with five laps to go, it sealed Sato a promotion in the pantheon of excellence.
What subjectively was his best race?
It has to be Indianapolis, though that first Gateway race deserves a mention.
Sato stayed at the front for almost the entire Indianapolis 500. He might not have led a significant share of the laps, but he kept himself in it and pounced late. If the race had stayed green and the Pigot accident not happened, it could have come down to fuel mileage. Dixon's team thought Sato was going to be short. Sato's team claims it was going to be fine on fuel. Dixon tried to make a few moves and Sato held him off.
Maybe Dixon could have made one more run if the caution does not come out, but Sato got the job done and caught a break.
The following week we saw a repeat of the Indianapolis battle, except it was Dixon ahead and Sato charging him down on fresher tires, including a breathtaking pass on O'Ward for second. Dixon had the aero advantage and he held off Sato, but it did not come easy.
What objectively was his worst race?
Of the races Sato started, in the second Iowa race, Sato was 21st after trying to employ a two-stop strategy where he was one of the first cars to stopped. It worked in the first race from the 7/8-mile oval, but it did not pan out in race two.
What subjectively was his worst race?
What objectively was his worst race?
Of the races Sato started, in the second Iowa race, Sato was 21st after trying to employ a two-stop strategy where he was one of the first cars to stopped. It worked in the first race from the 7/8-mile oval, but it did not pan out in race two.
What subjectively was his worst race?
Technically, Sato's worst race was the one he did not get to participate in, and that would be Texas. An accident in qualifying kept him from starting the race and it ended a streak of 169 consecutive starts. Sato had started every race in the 2010s and he missed the first race of the 2020s!
Sato had been sixth in practice and his teammate Rahal qualified seventh. It could have been a good night for him to open the season and maybe he would have ended up sixth in the championship ahead of Rahal.
Of the races he started, subjectively, I would say his worst races were Mid-Ohio, where he finished 17th and 18th. Sato has a few bugaboo tracks in his IndyCar career and Mid-Ohio is one of them. He has two top five finishes at the track, but his average finish is 15.9 in 12 starts and he has started 15th or worse in eight of those races. Ironically, he led 16 laps in the second Mid-Ohio race this year when he stayed out under the first caution after everyone else had stopped. He went as far as he could on fuel, but that alternate strategy earned him nothing more than an 18th-place finish after starting 22nd.
Mid-Ohio was a reverse of Gateway. In RLLR's backyard, Rahal was good, and Sato was bad. Rahal was fourth in both races and started eighth and 12th in those respective races.
Takuma Sato's 2020 Statistics
Championship Position: 7th (248 points)
Wins: 1
Podiums: 2
Top Fives: 2
Top Tens: 8
Laps Led: 172
Poles: 1
Fast Sixes: 0
Fast Twelves: 0
Average Start: 13.928
Average Finish: 11.307
An Early Look Ahead
Rahal and Sato will both return, and I think RLLR will be fine.
This is fourth team if there is an IndyCar "Big Four." The truth is it is not a "Big Four" because RLLR has a lot it needs to accomplish to make it a four-horse race. RLLR is doing the right things having won a race in six consecutive seasons, but it needs to have both drivers winning races and both drivers winning multiple races and at least one driver contending for a championship.
Rahal got close to a title in 2015, but he has not been able to replicate that season. His results have been solid, and it is mind-boggling how Rahal has not been able to get a victory the last three seasons, but Sato has in each season since he rejoined the team in 2018.
In 2020, Rahal beat Sato head-to-head in finishes nine to five, including ending the season with five consecutive top ten finishes while Sato had one in the final five races. In 2019, it was 12 to five in favor of Rahal. Two years ago, Rahal won the team battle 11 to 6. Overall, Rahal has the advantage 32 to 16 and yet Sato has won three races to Rahal's none! In the same time period, Rahal has 12 top five finishes, two more than Sato, and 32 top ten finishes, nine more than Sato.
Two of Sato's victories are from him either pitting or not pitting on the right side of a caution, but he holds on for the victory in those cases. Rahal hasn't had those races fall his way and, in the races where he was at the front, he was just off enough that he cannot keep up with the big boys.
This team either needs to find that extra two-tenths to be at the front and controlling races or it has to be a little more ruthless and take a fourth-place finish and turn it into a victory. RLLR is there. This isn't a team that has to tear anything down. It is knocking on the door and I don't think the team is going to take a step back in 2021. If RLLR falls back, it is because someone surpasses them.
If Rahal can keep up this form, a victory will eventually come. Sato seems to be good for a victory a season now. There is a 2021 season where the pieces fall right, each driver gets at least one victory and possibly each driver gets two victories, both drivers are in the top ten of the championship again and one is in the top five of the championship. A championship fight will require a little more muscle, but this team is the closest to a championship of those not name Penske, Ganassi and Andretti.
RLLR has a good thing going, and I do not think this team has to change anything any time soon. Sato is toward the end of his career, but as long as he continues this absurd improvement after the age of 40, the team is going to keep him. Sato is still streaky. His only top five finishes in 2020 were his Indianapolis 500 victory and his second at Gateway. The double points at Indianapolis gave Sato an extra three spots in the championship, but it was still a good year. Rahal has another 15 years in IndyCar if he wants it, and more victories are going to come.
This is a duo that works together. They were ninth and tenth in the championship last year and sixth and seventh this year. They complement each other better than almost any other set of teammates in the series. There is no need to change, and maybe they are due to both improve again in 2021. Another improvement, another Indianapolis 500 victory and a championship battle puts RLLR in IndyCar's first tier and it would not be a surprise if that happens.
