IndyCar has hit its final period of downtime in the season. After three consecutive weeks of racing in August, the series has two weeks off before finishing with three consecutive weeks of racing in September.
While that is the reality of the schedule, let's look at the hypothetical and have our second update on the IndyCar League format. We last looked at it in June, and this is how each league looked after Road America:
League One
Conference One
1. #5 AMSP (7-2)
2. #9 Ganassi (7-2)
3. #27 Andretti (5-4)
4. #22 Penske (5-4)
5. #12 Penske (5-4)
6. #21 ECR (3-6)
7. #29 Andretti (2-7)
8. #18 Coyne (2-7)
Conference Two
1. #30 RLLR (7-2)
2. #2 Penske (6-3)
3. #51 Coyne (5-4)
4. #26 Andretti (5-4)
5. #10 Ganassi (5-4)
6. #15 RLLR (4-5)
7. #28 Andretti (3-6)
#8 #7 AMSP (1-8)
League Two
1. #8 Ganassi (8-1)
2. #60 MSR (7-2)
3. #14 Foyt (6-3)
4. #20 ECR (6-3)
5. #3 Penske (5-4)
6. #48 Ganassi (2-7)
7. #59 Carlin (1-8)
8. #4 Foyt (1-8)
After Gateway, the regular season ended and what has transpired over the last two months has decided who has made the playoffs, who will be relegated from each conference, who has been promoted automatically from League Two and who will be participating in the promotion playoff.
How did the results shake out over the final five weeks of the regular season?
League One Results
Week 10 (MID-OHIO):
#9 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne (4 to 26)
#5 AMSP vs. #22 Penske (8 to 14)
#12 Penske vs. #29 Andretti (25 to 17)
#27 Andretti vs. #21 ECR (5 to 16)
#2 Penske vs. #10 Ganassi (1 to 3)
#26 Andretti vs. #30 RLLR (13 to 10)
#15 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (6 to 23)
#28 Andretti vs. #51 Coyne (24 to 7)
Week 11 (NASHVILLE):
#9 Penske vs. #22 Penske (2 to 21)
#5 AMSP vs. #12 Penske (13 to 14)
#27 Andretti vs. #29 Andretti (17 to 3)
#18 Coyne vs. #21 ECR (6 to 24)
#2 Penske vs. #30 RLLR (10 to 25)
#26 Andretti vs. #15 RLLR (19 to 5)
#28 Andretti vs. #7 AMSP (4 to 8)
#10 Ganassi vs. #51 Coyne (7 to 16)
Week 12 (IMS ROAD COURSE):
#9 Ganassi vs. #12 Penske (17 to 1)
#5 AMSP vs. #27 Andretti (5 to 4)
#22 Penske vs. #21 ECR (16 to 24)
#18 Coyne vs. #29 Andretti (14 to 22)
#2 Penske vs. #15 RLLR (8 to 7)
#26 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti (3 to 18)
#30 RLLR vs. #51 Coyne (10 to 2)
#10 Ganassi vs. #7 AMSP (27 to 13)
Week 13 (GATEWAY QUALIFYING):
#9 Ganassi vs. #27 Andretti (8 to 7)
#5 AMSP vs. #18 Coyne (5 to 12)
#12 Penske vs. #21 ECR (1 to 23)
#22 Penske vs #29 Andretti (4 to 19)
#2 Penske vs. #28 Andretti (3 to 13)
#26 Andretti vs. #10 Ganassi (2 to 21)
#15 RLLR vs. #51 Coyne (9 to 14)
#30 RLLR vs. #7 AMSP (16 to 10)
Week 14 (GATEWAY):
#9 Ganassi vs. #5 AMSP (19 to 2)
#12 Penske vs. #27 Andretti (3 to 17)
#22 Penske vs. #18 Coyne (8 to 24)
#21 ECR vs. #29 Andretti (21 to 15)
#2 Penske vs. #26 Andretti (1 to 18)
#15 RLLR vs. #28 Andretti (23 to 7)
#30 RLLR vs. #10 Ganassi (6 to 20)
#51 Coyne vs. #7 AMSP (14 to 16)
Final League One Regular Season Standings
Conference One
1. #5 AMSP 11-3
2. #9 Ganassi 9-5
3. #12 Penske 8-6
4. #22 Penske 8-6
5. #27 Andretti 8-6
6. #29 Andretti 5-9
7. #18 Coyne 4-10
8. #21 ECR 3-11
Conference Two
1. #2 Penske 10-4
2. #30 RLLR 9-5
3. #15 RLLR 8-6
4. #51 Coyne 8-6
5. #26 Andretti 7-7
6. #10 Ganassi 6-8
7. #28 Andretti 5-9
8. #7 AMSP 3-11
League Two Results
Week 10:
#8 Ganassi vs. #20 ECR (2 to 15)
#60 MSR vs. #4 Foyt (19 to 21)
#59 Carlin vs. #48 Ganassi (18 to 22)
#14 Foyt vs. #3 Penske (11 to 12)
Week 11:
#8 Ganassi vs. #4 Foyt (1 to 23)
#60 MSR vs. #59 Carlin (15 to 18)
#14 Foyt vs. #48 Ganassi (27 to 26)
#20 ECR vs. #3 Penske (12 to 22)
Week 12:
#8 Ganassi vs. #59 Carlin (9 to 20)
#60 MSR vs. #14 Foyt (6 to 15)
#4 Foyt vs. #3 Penske (26 to 23)
#20 ECR vs #48. Ganassi (11 to 19)
Week 13:
#8 Ganassi vs. #14 Foyt (6 to 18)
#60 MSR vs. #20 ECR (15 to 22)
#59 Carlin vs. #3 Penske (20 to 11)
#4 Foyt vs. #48 Ganassi (24 to 17)
Week 14:
#8 Ganassi vs. #60 MSR (9 to 10)
#59 Carlin vs. #14 Foyt (11 to 5)
#4 Foyt vs. #20 ECR (12 to 22)
#3 Penske vs. #48 Ganassi (4 to 13)
Final League Two Regular Season Standings
1. #8 Ganassi 13-1
2. #60 MSR 11-3
3. #20 ECR 8-6
4. #3 Penske 8-6
5. #14 Foyt 8-6
6. #48 Ganassi 4-10
7. #59 Carlin 3-11
8. #4 Foyt 2-12
What Happens Next?
We know the #8 Ganassi and the #60 MSR have been promoted after taking the top two spots in League Two. Relegated from League One will be the #21 ECR and the #7 AMSP.
The #27 Andretti and #26 Andretti are guaranteed safety in League One for finishing fifth.
But now there will be three brackets over the final three weeks. One will decide the overall champion, another will decide who stays up in League One and who will face relegation, and the other is the last chance at promotion for a League Two representative.
Championship Bracket
Quarterfinals (Portland):
QF1: #5 AMSP vs. #51 Coyne
QF2: #30 RLLR vs. #12 Penske
QF3: #9 Ganassi vs. #15 RLLR
QF4: #2 Penske vs. #22 Penske
Semifinals (Laguna Seca):
SF1: QF1 winner vs. QF2 winner
SF2: QF3 winner vs. QF4 winner
Final (Long Beach):
Semifinal #1 winner vs. Semifinal #2 winner
Relegation Bracket
Semifinals (Portland)/(Winners stay up in League One):
RSF1: #29 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti
RSF2: #10 Ganassi vs. #18 Coyne
Final (Laguna Seca)/(Winner stays up in League One. Loser faces Promotion Playoff winner)
RSF1 loser vs. RSF2 loser
Promotion Bracket
Semifinals (Portland)/(Losers remain in League Two):
PSF1: #20 ECR vs. #48 Ganassi
PSF2: #3 Penske vs. #14 Foyt
Final (Laguna Seca)/(Loser remains in League Two. Winner faces Relegation Playoff loser):
PSF1 winner vs. PSF2 winner
Promotion Playoff Final (Long Beach)/(Winner gets final 2022 League One spot)
Loser of Relegation bracket final vs. Winner of Promotion bracket final
Can We Talk About Surprises?
In this crazy, fictional world, Álex Palou, who has led the championship for majority of this season, not only would not make the playoffs, but would have to be in the relegation playoffs and need to win at least one more time to assure the #10 Ganassi entry's League One safety.
Rinus VeeKay, who won a race and has been in the top ten of the championship for majority of this season, would be relegated while one of James Hinchcliffe or Ed Jones will definitely be safe and there is a chance both stay up.
Where did it go wrong for these two entries?
For Palou, it didn't help his worst two weekends were the last two weekends of the regular season, but he has two victories and six podium finishes from 13 races. How is it that record lands him outside the top four of his conference? I am not sure you could have more bad beats. Palou lost the second Texas race finishing seventh with Colton Herta in fifth. He was third at the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, but he was paired with Romain Grosjean finishing second. Third at Mid-Ohio should be good enough, but it is not when you are paired against race winner Josef Newgarden.
I don't know how many times a driver has lost despite finishing on the podium, it has likely happened before in the few years I have done this, but I am not sure anyone has had it happen twice in a season. It did for Palou.
As for VeeKay, it didn't help that he finished 16th or worse in his last five starts. Oliver Askew also ran the second Road America race. Askew went off strategy and that cost him a good finish and he lost to Scott Dixon. Focusing on VeeKay, he was sixth at Barber, but lost to Patricio O'Ward in fourth. VeeKay was ninth at St. Petersburg but lost to Scott Dixon in fifth. Eighth in the Indianapolis 500 wasn't good enough against Simon Pagenaud in third. Three losses with top ten finishes. VeeKay got a tough draw.
Then you have the #51 Coyne entry, which ended up being Romain Grosjean for 11 races and Pietro Fittipaldi in three races. Fittipaldi went 1-2. Grosjean went 7-4. Grosjean's losses were 13th at St. Petersburg when Josef Newgarden was second, 24th in the second Belle Isle race when Herta was fourth, 16th at Nashville when Palou was seventh and 14th in Gateway qualifying while Graham Rahal was ninth. Grosjean also got a break winning with a 23rd in the first Belle Isle race when paired against Felix Rosenqvist.
The #29 Andretti entry didn't make the playoffs, but how did the driver 19th in the championship with one top ten finish end up 5-9 while a race winner was relegated? James Hinchcliffe was 18th at St. Petersburg but won over O'Ward in 19th. Hinchcliffe was 21st in the Indianapolis 500 but won over Ed Jones in 28th. Hinchcliffe was 17th at Mid-Ohio but won over Will Power in 25th. Then Hinchcliffe's one good day at Nashville was a win in third with Alexander Rossi in 17th, and in the final regular season matchup, Hinchcliffe missed the start due to electrical issues, was two laps down and Jones got in an accident on lap two and was out of the race. Hinchcliffe inched up to 15th, though never being on the lead lap, but that was another win. VeeKay got a tough draw. Hinchcliffe got the fortunate draw.
As for the three-way tie between the #12 Penske, #22 Penske and #27 Andretti, head-to-head, they were all 2-2 against one another. At that point it comes down to best finish of the season. Power has a victory; Pagenaud's best finish is third and Rossi only has a fourth. Rossi does not make the playoffs, but he is guaranteed safety, and the same is true for his teammate Colton Herta, as the #26 Andretti ended up fifth in Conference Two.
In the other conference, the #15 RLLR entry was 2-0 over the #51 Coyne entry and gets the third spot.
What Should We Expect For the Playoffs?
Could the #1 seeds get tougher draws in round one?
O'Ward vs. Grosjean and Newgarden vs. Pagenaud?
Both are toss ups. All the matchups really are, but those in particular set up incredible outcomes. Grosjean could be sixth and O'Ward seventh. Newgarden could be fourth and Pagenaud could win. Neither of those results would be surprises. Grosjean has been the darling of the season. The Frenchman is fighting from behind for rookie of the year and has had multiple chances at victory this season. Meanwhile, Pagenaud could be on the way out at Team Penske and he has bumped into his teammates in recent weeks, including suffering damage to his front wing early at Gateway after hitting Newgarden, setting Pagenaud back in the early stages of the race.
Dixon ended up positioned better finishing second in his conference and the same goes for Power in third. Both RLLR entries are respectable, but neither has had a spectacular race this season. You need to be good to beat either RLLR car, but you don't necessarily need to be great. They might finish ninth or tenth, but Dixon and Power could both be comfortably in the top five and not feel that much pressure.
On the relegation/promotion side, I have no read on the #29 Andretti vs. #28 Andretti matchup. That is a bad matchup. Neither team has been great this year and I don't expect either to be great at Portland. Palou should take care of business against Jones. It should be crisis averted early for him, but a third consecutive poor race would put him on the ropes, and it would significantly crush his Astor Cup championship hopes... you know, the trophy that actually matters.
Then you have Conor Daly vs. Jimmie Johnson. Could Daly get a better matchup? It is Johnson from here on out in the #48 Gannasi Chevrolet. He needs to win three times to earn promotion. Johnson went 1-8 this year. His lone win was Nashville when Sébastien Bourdais was run over. If Daly doesn't win, it is an embarrassment.
Scott McLaughlin vs. Bourdais is another toss-up. On paper, it is Bourdais, but you cannot count on Bourdais this year, but it isn't entirely the driver's fault. McLaughlin, on the other hand, hasn't been great. This matchup is in the same ilk of the all-Andretti matchup on the other side of the bracket. Both cars could have bad days but one of them has to win.
Predictions
Why not? This doesn't actually exist, this season has been all over the place and completely unpredictable, let's roll the dice and see what happens:
For Portland...
O'Ward over Grosjean, but both cars will be in the top ten.
Power beats Sato, and it is the most comfortable of the outcomes.
Dixon beats Rahal, but both cars are in the top ten and it is fewer than four spots between them.
Newgarden has an actual championship he is chasing, he just won at Gateway and Pagenaud has another off day. Newgarden advances.
So... chalk for the championship bracket. Not sexy, but so be it.
Hunter-Reay edges out Hinchcliffe.
Palou whoops Jones.
Daly is 16th, but that is all you need to beat Johnson.
Bourdais edges out McLaughlin, but these two are within two spots of one another.
At Laguna Seca...
We get O'Ward vs. Power. Power was the second-best car at Laguna Seca in 2019. Tire wear could decide this race and O'Ward has struggled with tire degradation this season. Give me Power.
The other semifinal is Dixon vs. Newgarden. I will take Newgarden, but this could be one-spot between them, and they both could be in the top five.
Hinchcliffe secures the #29 Andretti entry's spot in League One in a sloppy matchup with Jones. Both cars will likely be outside the top 15.
Bourdais beats Daly comfortably. This could be Bourdais seventh and Daly 18th.
And for the Laguna Seca finales...
Power vs. Newgarden. An all-Penske final. Newgarden goes for his third consecutive League One title, and could remain the only driver to win the league championship in the three years I have been tracking this thing, while possibly also racing for an actual championship. Power is out there for fun. The actual championship implications might dictate this and Newgarden might win by default, because Power could be running block, assisting his teammate to a championship. I will say Newgarden, but Power will be close.
And for the final 2022 League One spot: Jones vs. Bourdais. Give me Bourdais, and a Foyt car is back in League One.
We will come back after the season and square away these predictions while also previewing how the 2022 season is set up.
