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| IndyCar begins its final quarter of 2021 at Gateway |
The 13th race of the 2021 NTT IndyCar Series season takes place at Gateway Motorsports Park. Gateway marks the start of the final quarter of the IndyCar season and Gateway is the final oval of the season. This year's Gateway race will be longer, 260 laps for 325 miles, 523.12 kilometers. This will be the longest Gateway race in IndyCar's history. There have been three different winners in the previous three oval races this season. There have been nine different winners this season, two away from matching the single-season record. Three winners from the 2020 season are still winless in 2021. There have been five different winners in the last five races.
Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 21 with green flag scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Kelli Stavast will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Time: Coverage begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday August 21 with green flag scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Leigh Diffey, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Kevin Lee and Kelli Stavast will work pit lane.
IndyCar Weekend Schedule
Practice: 1:15 p.m. ET (90 minutes)*
Qualifying: 5:00 p.m. ET (NBCSN will have live coverage)
Race: 8:40 p.m. ET (260 laps)* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock
One Engine Failure Opened Up The Championship
Through the first three quarters of the IMS road course race, Álex Palou was on his way to a 50-point championship lead with four races to go. Such a lead would raise the question not of how many drivers will be fighting for the championship at the finale, but could Palou lock up the title before the finale?
One engine failure squashed thoughts of an early coronation ceremony for one week. The championship is much tighter entering Gateway and Palou has been brought to the pack.
Palou's 415 points are only 21 points more than Patricio O'Ward, who picked up his seventh top five finish of the season on the IMS road course. Scott Dixon is 34 points behind his Ganassi teammate Palou. Josef Newgarden took 20 points out of the gap in one race and the most recent Gateway winner is 55 points off the championship leader. Marcus Ericsson has six consecutive top ten finishes, and the Swede rounds out the top five, 62 points behind Palou.
There is a big drop from fifth to sixth. Graham Rahal has nine top ten finishes from 12 races, but Rahal is 106 points back. Colton Herta was third on the IMS road course, his third podium finish of 2021, but Herta trails Palou by 107 points.
Simon Pagenaud's skid continued with a 16th-place finish at Indianapolis, his fourth consecutive result outside the top ten. Pagenaud has one top ten finish in the last six races after opening the season with five top ten results in the first six races. Pageanud is 120 points back.
Will Power's victory lifted him back into the top ten of the championship, but Power is 137 points behind Palou. The Australian will need a mammoth finish to the season to get back in the championship conversation. Rinus VeeKay dropped to tenth, as VeeKay has not finished in the top ten in his last four starts and he is 146 points back.
Takuma Sato has three top ten finishes in the last four races, but Sato dropped out of the top ten after Indianapolis. Sato is 164 points behind Palou with Alexander Rossi 169 points back in 12th. Rossi picked up his best finish of the season with a fourth on the IMS road course.
Scott McLaughlin and Jack Harvey are tied on 213 points, 202 points off Palou. McLaughlin has not had a top ten finish in the last seven races. Harvey was sixth on the IMS road course, ending an eight-race top ten finish drought.
Romain Grosjean remained alive for the championship with his runner-up result to Power. With Grosjean contesting the remaining four races, his mathematical chances are met with a practical chance the Frenchman could take the title, though he is 209 points back with only 216 points left on the table.
While 15 drivers remain alive for the championship, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Conor Daly, Sébastien Bourdais, James Hinchcliffe, Ed Jones, and Santino Ferrucci were all eliminated from championship contention after the IMS road course race.
Palou has already suffered a minimum points day at Indianapolis, and a second consecutive at Gateway would mean a driver would need to leave the 1.25-mile with at least 259 points to remain alive for the championship.
Currently, Sato, Rossi, Harvey, McLaughlin and Grosjean are below 259 points. Grosjean can only reach that total with a race victory and at least three bonus points. Harvey and McLaughlin must win to remain alive. Rossi needs at least 13 points, meaning a finish of 18th or better. Sato needs just eight points to remain alive, 23rd or better on Saturday night will do.
Of course, Palou could bounce back from a minimum points afternoon in the Hoosier State to a maximum points night on the banks of the Mississippi. Fifty-four points for Palou would have him on 469 points and raise the bar to 307 points, which would put Pagenaud, Power and VeeKay in peril. Pagenaud would need at least 12 points to stay alive, Power would need at least 29 points and VeeKay would need at least 38 points. A maximum points victory for Palou would eliminate everyone from Sato through Grosjean.
Final Oval
Four oval races are the fewest on an IndyCar schedule since reunification in 2008, but this is it for drivers hoping to capitalize on these events in the championship.
The top two in the championship are the top two in oval points, but O'Ward is the driver on top with 151 points while Palou is second on 145 points. O'Ward has finished third, first and fourth in the three oval races this season. Going back to 2020, O'Ward has five consecutive top five finishes on ovals and six consecutive top ten finishes with his worst finish being sixth. O'Ward was third and second last year at Gateway with 130 laps led between the two races.
Palou has been fourth, seventh and second between the three oval races. He did not have a top ten finish on an oval during his rookie season last year.
Dixon has 124 points from the three oval races after finishing first and fourth at Texas with a 17th at Indianapolis. Pagenaud scored 119 points through the first three oval races with his best finish being third at Indianapolis. Newgarden has won an oval race in the last five seasons, but he does not have one this year and he has 105 points from ovals. His best finish was second at Texas to O'Ward. He was sixth in the first Texas race and 12th at Indianapolis.
Hélio Castroneves is the final driver alive for the oval championship despite having run only one oval race. Castroneves just so happened to win that one oval race, the Indianapolis 500, and along with that famous victory, the Brazilian picked up 103 points. The bad news is Castroneves is not entered for Gateway.
Ed Carpenter will be back for his final start of 2021. Carpenter has 99 points from the first three oval races, the seventh-most in IndyCar. He is ten points ahead of his teammate VeeKay. McLaughlin has scored 84 points from three oval races and Tony Kanaan rounds out the top ten in the oval standings with 79 points. Kanaan will be back for his final race of 2021 in the #48 Chevrolet for Chip Ganassi Racing.
Rahal has 77 points from ovals, just ahead of Herta on 75 points. Herta is the top Andretti driver when it comes to oval points. Sato is only five points behind his teammate Rahal. Ericsson has not finished in the top ten on an oval this season and he has 68 points, just ahead of Harvey's 63 points. Santino Ferrucci has 57 points from the Indianapolis 500, four more than Ryan Hunter-Reay and Sage Karam. Karam's only start was the Indianapolis 500. Conor Daly is a point behind Hunter-Reay and Karam.
There is a three-way tie for 20th in oval points, all on 44 points: Power, Rossi, and Juan Pablo Montoya. All of Montoya's points came from Indianapolis but Power has finished outside the top ten in all three oval races. Rossi's best finish was eighth in the first Texas race.
Felix Rosenqivst sits on 42 oval points, five more than James Hinchcliffe, six more than Ed Jones, eight more than Pietro Fittipaldi, who is not entered for Gateway despite originally being reported he would run a third Dale Coyne Racing car, and nine more than Dalton Kellett. Sébastien Bourdais has the fewest oval points among the drivers who have started all three with only 27 points. Bourdais has finished 24th, 19th and 26th in those races.
Last year, Dixon was the top oval driver, and he went on to take the overall championship. Dixon was the first Honda driver to be the best on ovals since engine competition returned to IndyCar in 2012. He was also the first driver to be the best on ovals and win the overall championship since Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012. A Team Penske driver has been the best on ovals for six of the last eight seasons.
Grosjean's First Oval
While Gateway is the final oval race of the 2021 season, it will be Romain Grosjean's first oval start.
The Frenchman has 206 points from nine road/street course starts this season. That is an average of 22.888 points per start. If we were to extrapolate that average over the three oval races Grosjean has not run, he would have 274.667 points through 12 races, which would put him tenth in the championship. He is one of ten drivers this season with multiple podium finishes.
With Grosjean adding Gateway to his schedule, he will run the final ten races of the IndyCar season and he has a strong shot at rookie of the year honors. Despite missing three races, Grosjean is only seven points behind Scott McLaughlin in the rookie of the year battle. McLaughlin is averaging 17.75 points per start, over five points fewer than Grosjean.
McLaughlin has finished outside the top ten in seven consecutive races, and he has only two top fifteen finishes in that span. McLaughlin also ran the double points Indianapolis 500, while Grosjean will not contest a single double-point race all season. McLaughlin has only scored more than 17 points in one of the last six races and that was 18 points for his 12th place result at Mid-Ohio. Grosjean has scored more than 18 points in three of the last four races and in five of his nine starts.
Head-to-head, Grosjean is significantly better than McLaughlin in almost every category. Grosjean's average starting position of 7.444 is fourth best in IndyCar among drivers who have started at least 70% of the races. McLaughlin is down in 20th at 16.7. Grosjean's average finish is 11.333 to McLaughlin's 14.417. Grosjean has led 49 laps this season while McLaughlin has not led this season. The one place McLaughlin has Grosjean beat is percentage of laps completed. McLaughlin has completed 98.8% of his total lap while Grosjean is only at 97.2%.
Both rookies tested at Gateway last month. Unofficially, McLaughlin had the third fastest lap at 180.361 MPH (24.9499 seconds). Grosjean was seventh out of 11 cars at 177.445 MPH (25.3599 seconds).
Can Penske Finish Strong?
Team Penske will head to Gateway not only as the most recent Gateway winner but the most recent IndyCar winner, as Will Power scored his first victory of the season on the IMS road course. Team Penske has only two victories this season. Josef Newgarden was responsible for the other one just prior to the summer break at Mid-Ohio on Independence Day. While you may be concerned this has been a poor season for Team Penske, you may need to ease your nerves. Penske has been here before, most recently, last season.
Through eight races last year, Penske had two victories when Simon Pagenaud and Newgarden swept the Iowa doubleheader. Chip Ganassi Racing had won five of the first eight races and Takuma Sato's Indianapolis 500 triumph was the lone outside success.
However, Team Penske ended 2020 with five victories in the final six races. It ended up with seven victories from 14 races and for the fifth consecutive season Team Penske was in sole possession for most victories in IndyCar. The organization has at least a share of most victories in a season for seven consecutive seasons. The last time Team Penske did not have the outright lead in victories was 2013 when Chip Ganassi Racing won five races. Team Penske has won 50% or more of the races in four of the last five seasons.
Strong finishes are nothing new for Team Penske. In 2017, it won six of the final seven races. In 2016, it won four of the final six.
Josef Newgarden is the most recent Gateway winner and Newgarden is also the only repeat winner in the history of Gateway. Newgarden has led 268 of 1,144 laps run at Gateway since it returned to the schedule in 2017. He has two victories, two seventh-place finishes and a 12th, and he has completed every lap in the five races.
Will Power is another past Gateway winner, but his Gateway results have been sink or swim. Though Power has led in all five Gateway races since 2017, his 2018 victory and third in race two last year are cancelled out with finishes of 20th, 22nd and 17th in the other three starts.
Simon Pagenaud had three consecutive top five finishes at Gateway prior to last year's doubleheader when he finished 19th and 16th. He has only led 13 laps at the track, all coming in 2017 when Newgarden successful pulled off an audacious pass for the lead on Pagenaud on the inside of turn one.
Team Penske has had at least once instance of consecutive victories in 12 consecutive seasons. The last time the team didn't was 2008, where coincidentally Team Penske did win consecutive races, but one was a non-championship race. Hélio Castroneves won the Chicagoland season finale and Ryan Briscoe won the non-championship race at Surfers Paradise, IndyCar's last visit to Australia.
Road to Indy
Indy Lights is back for the first time since Mid-Ohio at the start of July and Gateway is the only oval track on the schedule. This is a doubleheader weekend for Indy Lights. Each race will pay 45 points for a victory, 1.5 times the total for a road/street course victory. Second place will get 38 points with third through 14th receiving 33-29-26-23-21-20-18-17-15-14-12-11.
Kyle Kirkwood has won five of the last six races and Kirkwood leads the championship with 290 points. He won at Gateway in 2019 in Indy Pro 2000. That is his most recent oval start. David Malukas is 11 points behind Kirkwood. Linus Lundqvist is 25 points behind Kirkwood, but he has not finished on the podium in the last four races after having six podium finishes in the first eight races.
Danial Frost has three consecutive podium finishes, but he is 86 points behind his Andretti teammate Kirkwood. Toby Sowery has dropped to fifth on 201 points, three behind Frost, after three consecutive finishes outside the top five. Devlin DeFrancesco is 100 points back after finishing fifth in both Mid-Ohio races. DeFrancesco won at Gateway last year in Indy Pro 2000.
Robert Megennis sits on 183 points, four points ahead of Benjamin Pedersen and Alex Peroni. Sting Ray Robb rounds out the top ten on 140 points, 14 points ahead of Antonio Serravalle, 15 points ahead of Christian Bogle and 17 points ahead of Nikita Lastochkin. Lastochkin is not entered this weekend.
Indy Lights will race at 6:30 p.m. ET on Friday August 20 and at the same time at 6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday August 21. Both races are scheduled for 75 laps.
Christian Rasmussen leads the Indy Pro 2000 championship with 306 points and Rasmussen has six victories this season, including at Indianapolis Raceway Park in May. Braden Eves has not finished on the podium in the last five races and Eves has dropped 39 points behind Rasmussen. Eves was second at Gateway last year.
Reece Gold has six podium finishes in 12 races, but Gold has not won yet this season and he is 52 points off Rasmussen. Artem Petrov has finished runner-up in three of the last four races and he is 56 points back in the championship. Hunter McElrea scored his second victory of the season at Mid-Ohio and McElrea is 75 points back.
Manuel Sulaimán sits on 193 points, six points ahead of Jacob Abel. Kyffin Simpson has 177 points with James Roe and Wyatt Brichacek tied on 127 points.
Indy Pro 2000 will race at 3:45 p.m. ET on Saturday August 21. The race is scheduled for 55 laps.
Fast Facts
This will be the 13th IndyCar race to take place on August 21 and first since Dan Wheldon won at Pikes Peak International Raceway in 2005.
That was the final Pikes Peak race for IndyCar. Three drivers who were in that Pikes Peak race are entered this weekend: Tony Kanaan, Scott Dixon, and Ed Carpenter.
Every IndyCar race that has been held on August 21 has been an oval race.
The average starting position for a Gateway winner is 4.25 with a median of 2.5.
The last seven Gateway winners have started in the top five. Three of the first five Gateway races were won from outside the top five, including two races being won from 11th.
Only two oval races since the introduction of the universal aero kit have been won from outside the top ten. The first was James Hinchcliffe from 11th at Iowa in 2018 and the other was Simon Pagenaud from 23rd in the first Iowa race last year.
The last oval race won from outside the top ten that wasn't at Iowa was Texas 2016, when Graham Rahal won from 13th.
Team Penske has won six of 12 Gateway races. The only other team with multiple Gateway victories is Chip Ganassi Racing with three.
Since 2017, the average finish for the pole-sitter at Gateway is 11.2 with only one top five finish. Scott Dixon was third from the first starting spot in 2018, but that is the one year the starting grid was set via points as qualifying was rained out. Remove Dixon, the four pole-sitters via speed have an average finish of 13.75 and the best finish was seven for Josef Newgarden in 2019.
The average number of lead changes in a Gateway race is 8.667 with a median of ten.
Seven of 12 Gateway races have had at least ten lead changes.
The fewest lead changes in a Gateway race is three in 1998 and the most lead changes in a Gateway race is 13 in 2019.
The average number of cautions in a Gateway race is 4.25 with a median of four. The average number of caution laps is 38.5 with a median of 32.
Since IndyCar returned to Gateway in 2017, every race has had either two caution periods or five caution periods.
The fewest caution periods in a Gateway race was one in 2000. The fewest caution laps in a Gateway race were five in that 2000 race and five in the second race last year.
The most caution periods in a Gateway race are eight in 1997 and 1999. Those two races had 88 caution laps and 81 caution laps respectively.
Since 2017, the average number of passes in a Gateway race is 194 with a median of 173 passes. The average number of passes for positions is 113.4 with a median of 105.
Possible Milestones:
Scott Dixon is one victory away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time with 52 victories.
Josef Newgarden is one victory away from the 20-victory milestone and Newgarden would be the 22nd driver to reach 20 IndyCar victories.
Josef Newgarden is one podium finish away from his 40th podium finish.
Alexander Rossi is one podium finish away from his 25th podium finish.
Will Power needs to lead one lap to become the ninth driver in IndyCar history to reach the 4,500 laps led milestone.
Josef Newgarden needs to lead six laps to surpass Johnny Rutherford for 20th all-time in laps led. Newgarden could also surpass Tony Bettenhausen with 159 laps led and Dan Wheldon with 168 laps led.
Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 38 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.
Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.
Takuma Sato needs to lead 98 laps to reach the 1,000 laps led milestone. Sato would become the 42nd driver to eclipse that milestone.
James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.
Graham Rahal needs to lead 46 laps to reach the 500 laps led milestone.
Predictions
Team Penske goes back-to-back with Josef Newgarden winning the race and Will Power will finish in the top five, making Gateway the first race of 2021 where Team Penske has multiple top five finishers. Álex Palou will end up starting worse than 15th and he will lose points from his championship lead. Scott Dixon will be the best finishing Ganassi driver. Patricio O'Ward clinches top oval driver of the season. At least two Andretti drivers finish off the lead lap. Romain Grosjean will qualify outside the top twenty, but he will see the checkered flag and make up at least five spots. Graham Rahal will be the top finishing RLLR driver. Tony Kanaan will beat Ed Carpenter head-to-head. Ed Carpenter will beat Rinus VeeKay head-to-head, but neither finish in the top ten. Conor Daly will have his worst career Gateway finish. There will not be an accident coming to the green flag, nor will there be a caution for a brief sprinkle of rain during a pit cycle. Sleeper: Jack Harvey.
