Track Walk: Nashville 2021

IndyCar returns to competition and two drivers look to carry over the momentum

The NTT IndyCar Series returns after a 35-day break for the 11th round of the 2021 season and it will be the inaugural Music City Grand Prix on the new Nashville street course. This is the first time the state of Tennessee has hosted an IndyCar race since July 12, 2008 when Nashville Superspeedway hosted its eighth and final IndyCar race. That race featured 24 cars, but HVM Racing was unable to make it as driver E.J. Viso had the mumps and the team withdrew out of precaution, rain ended the race 29 laps early and Scott Dixon picked up his third consecutive Nashville victory. Dixon was the only driver to win multiple times on the 1.333-mile concrete oval, and Dixon is one of five drivers who participated in that Nashville race entered in the inaugural Music City Grand Prix. The others are Hélio Castroneves, Will Power, Graham Rahal and Ryan Hunter-Reay.

Coverage
Time: Coverage begins at 5:00 pm ET on Sunday August 8 with green flag scheduled for 5:45 p.m. ET.
Channel: NBCSN
Announcers: Kevin Lee, Townsend Bell and Paul Tracy will be in the booth. Marty Snider and Dave Burns will work pit lane.

IndyCar Weekend Schedule 
Friday:

First Practice: 4:10 p.m. ET (75 minutes)*

Saturday:

Second Practice: 1:00 p.m ET (45 minutes)*

Qualifying: 4:30 p.m. ET*

Sunday:
Warm-Up: 1:00 p.m. ET (30 minutes)

Race: 5:45 p.m. ET (80 laps)

* - All practice and qualifying sessions are available live on Peacock.

A New Track

Rarely does a Track Walk need an actual track walk, but with this being IndyCar's first visits to the streets of Nashville, we need to look over the course. 

This will be a 2.17-mile, 11-turn street course partially using the roads around Nissan Stadium, home of the NFL's Tennessee Titans and Major League Soccer's Nashville SC. From the roads around the stadium, the course heads across the Korean War Veterans Memorial Bridge, over the Cumberland River. After a five-corner section around 1st Avenue, the track heads back across the Korean War Veterans Memorial Bridge before turning back onto the roads around the stadium. 

The first two corners are a tight left-right section off of S 2nd Street into the parking lot next to Nissan Stadium. A right-handed turn three will lead the cars down the Korean Veterans Boulevard, over the bridge before a left-hand turn on 1st Ave South. 

The 1st Ave South section is a tight succession of corners. A slight right in turn five before a pair of left-hand corners and a right-hander in turn eight puts the cars back on Korean Veterans Blvd, heading over the bridge for a second time..

Once back across the river, turn nine is a left-hand turn onto Interstate Drive. It is the first of three left hand turns that will bring the cars back onto S 2nd Street, where the finish line will be next to Nissan Stadium. 

This will be a unique track, as the finish line will be on S 2nd Street, but the start line will be on the straightaway leading toward turn nine, just after the cars get off the bridge. Pit lane will run along the finish line straightaway on S 2nd Street.

The August Stretch

With the summer break behind IndyCar, Nashville starts a three-week, three-race stretch with a second Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course race following and Gateway, the final oval race of the season, concluding the August slate. 

This is an important time for drivers on the cusp of the championship battle to either become serious contenders or fall aside and be left crowded in the middle of the standings.

There have been three street course races this season and each one has had a different driver from a different team take victory. Colton Herta waxed the field in St. Petersburg, leading 97 of 100 laps in route to Herta's only victory so far this season. 

The first Belle Isle race will be remembered for Felix Rosenqvist's accident that delayed the race and shuffled up the field. Will Power moved into the catbird seat and looked poised for his first victory of the season until Romain Grosjean got into the barrier late and brought out a red flag. Power's car was unable to restart and this gifted Marcus Ericsson his first career victory. 

The next day Josef Newgarden dominated at Belle Isle, but after being spooked into the pit lane for a possible caution, the team made the wrong choice on tire compound. Strapped with the less ideal alternate compound for the final stint, Newgarden slid into the clutches of Colton Herta in the closing laps. When a string of cautions bunched up the field, Patricio O'Ward was able to charge forward and become the first repeat winner of 2021. 

With a pair of seconds, Newgarden has the best average finish on street courses at 4.667, a full position ahead of Ericcson in second. Herta is third on 6.333, ahead of Scott Dixon on 6.667 with O'Ward, Simon Pagenaud and Takuma Sato all tied on 7.667. Directly behind Sato are his two Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammates, Santino Ferrucci, who will contest Nashville in the #45 Honda, at 8.0 and Graham Rahal's average finish is 8.333 over three starts. Rinus VeeKay is the tenth and final driver to average a top ten finish through the first three street course races in 2021 with VeeKay at 9.667. 

Championship leader Álex Palou has one top ten finish this year on street courses, and he has yet to finish in the top five. Palou is 12th in average street course finish at 11.667. Alexander Rossi's only two laps led this season were at Belle Isle and his average street course finish is 13.667. While Romain Grosjean has been brilliant this season, his average street course finish is 20th. 

The IMS road course has held many races in the last two years and the race held during the NASCAR weekend will be the fifth IndyCar race on the track in the last two years. 

In the last four IMS road course races, Newgarden again is on top with an average finish of fourth. Newgarden won the first Harvest Grand Prix race and he has three consecutive top five finishes on the IMS road course. Rahal has been in the top ten in the last four IMS road course races, averaging a finish of 5.25, slightly ahead of Herta, who had three top five finishes in the last four races. VeeKay is fourth best with three top five finishes like Herta, but VeeKay has a victory. Dixon is next at 6.75 with top ten finishes in all four events. 

Rossi has turned the tide after a mechanical failure in the 2020 Grand Prix of Indianapolis. With a pair of podium finishes and a seventh in the last three IMS road course races. He has an average finish of 8.5, just ahead of Pagenaud and Power. Palou has finished in the top ten of the last two races and his average finish on the IMS road course is 12th, a half position better than O'Ward.

Gateway will be the final oval race of the season and it is the only short oval on the schedule. 

Newgarden has won two of the five Gateway races since IndyCar's return and he is the only one with multiple victories on the 1.25-mile oval. O'Ward was on the podium of both races last year while VeeKay was fourth and sixth in that doubleheader. Herta has finished in the top ten in all four of his Gateway starts, while Dixon has four top five finishes in the last five Gateway races, including a victory there in the first race last year.

Palou was 15th and 12th in the two Gateway races last year. Ericsson had a fifth in race one, but a rear wing issue forced him to give up what could have been a second top five finish. Power has a victory at Gateway and a third, but he has finished 17th or worse in his other three starts. 

Newgarden's Comeback

IndyCar's most recent winner is the one hometown driver for the Music City Grand Prix. Hendersonville, Tennessee's Josef Newgarden picked up his 19th IndyCar victory at Mid-Ohio on Independence Day and that victory moved Newgarden ahead of Ryan Hunter-Reay for most victories among active American drivers. It was also a significant victory because it moved Newgarden to only 69 points behind Palou in the championship.

Newgarden could arguably have won the last three races, having finished second in the second Belle Isle race after losing the lead late on the alternate tire while Patricio O'Ward charged through the field on the primary tire compound, and a gearbox issue knocked Newgarden out of the lead at Road America on the restart with two laps to go and after he led 32 of the first 53 laps. 

Considering his form, no one is ruling out Newgarden putting up a fight for his third IndyCar championship, and while 69 points sounds like a significant deficit, Newgarden faced a taller mountain last year and made up more ground. 

With six races to go last year, Newgarden entered trailing Scott Dixon by 117 points in the championship. Newgarden had only one victory while Dixon had won four times. He had only two podium finishes and four top five finishes through the first eight races. In the final six races, Newgarden won three times. He had another runner-up result, a fourth and his worst finish in the final six races was eighth. 

Newgarden made up 101 points in the final six races of the 2020 IndyCar season, but that meant he still fell 17 points short of another IndyCar championship. Sixty-nine points is nothing to Newgarden, and his results have looked better compared to last year. 

He may only have four podium finishes to Palou's six, but Newgarden has led 172 of 205 laps run over the last three races. Palou has only led five laps in the last three races, although those all came in his Road America victory. Palou has only led double-digit lap totals in two races this season, 56 laps in his Barber victory and 35 laps in the Indianapolis 500. 

The Championship Picture

After the Mid-Ohio race, we have eliminated our first round of drivers from the IndyCar championship. With only six races remaining, 324 points are left on the table and only 27 drivers are alive for the championship. 

Álex Palou has led the championship after six of ten races this season and he will have led the championship for a grand total of 76 days this season at the start of the Nashville race. Palou sits on 384 points and he holds a 39-point lead over Patricio O'Ward. Palou and O'Ward are the only drivers to win multiple races this season. Palou has six podium finishes, including in the last three consecutive races. O'Ward has four podium finishes, but all of those were in IndyCar's two doubleheader weekends at Texas and Belle Isle.

Scott Dixon is 56 points behind his teammate and he has not been on the podium since his Texas victory in the third race of the season. Seven races without a podium finish is Dixon's longest stretch since 2014, when the New Zealander had an 11-race podium slump. Newgarden is 69 points behind Palou after he picked up his first victory of the season at Mid-Ohio. Newgarden has won three consecutive pole positions. 

With a runner-up result at Mid-Ohio, Marcus Ericsson has cracked the top five in the championship for the first time in his career, but Ericsson is 104 points behind his Ganassi teammate Palou. Simon Pagenaud is in sixth, 113 points back. Pagenaud has one top ten result in the last four races. St. Petersburg winner Colton Herta is seventh, trailing by 124 points. 

Despite missing one of the last three races and not finishing better than 16th in his last two starts, Rinus VeeKay holds on to eighth in the championship, 127 points off fellow sophomore Palou. Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing teammates Graham Rahal and Takuma Sato round out the top ten in the championship. Rahal is 128 points back and Sato is 158 points back. 

Will Power has been outside the top ten of the championship after the last five races and after completing only three laps at Mid-Ohio, Power is 175 points out of the championship lead. Alexander Rossi has gained three spots over the last five races, but 12th is the best he has been in the championship since he was ninth after the season opener. Rossi trails Palou by 183 points. 

Scott McLaughlin is the top rookie, 186 points behind Palou. Jack Harvey is 214 points back with Sébastien Bourdais rounding out the top fifteen, 229 points back. Romain Grosjean is still alive for the championship and Grosjean will run the remaining six races, as he has added Gateway to his schedule. The French rookie is 233 points back, six points ahead of past IndyCar champion Ryan Hunter-Reay. 

Conor Daly is 242 points back with James Hinchcliffe a further 11 points back. Santino Ferrucci is 20th in the championship despite starting only four races, but Ferrucci has four top ten finishes and he will be back in the #45 RLLR Honda at Nashville. Ferrucci is 257 markers in the distance of Palou. 

Ed Jones is 259 points off Palou. Hélio Castroneves is back for his second race of the season, but Castroneves' Indianapolis 500 victory has him on 103 points in 22nd. Ed Carpenter has only one start left, but he is still mathematically alive for the championship on 99 points. Dalton Kellett sits on 95 points and Felix Rosenqivst has 94 points. Like Carpenter, Tony Kanaan has one start left, and he is on 79 points, two ahead of Max Chilton, the final driver mathematically alive for the championship, 307 points behind Palou. 

Jimmie Johnson, Sage Karam, Juan Pablo Montoya, Pietro Fittipaldi, J.R. Hildebrand, Oliver Askew, Marco Andretti, Cody Ware, Ryan Norman, Simona de Silvestro, Stefan Wilson, Charlie Kimball, Kevin Magnussen, and every other being with fewer than 60 points have been eliminated from IndyCar championship contention. 

If Palou starts at Nashville, a driver will need to have at least 119 points after this race to remain eligible for the championship. Currently, Castroneves, Carpenter, Kellett, Rosenqvist, Kanaan and Chilton have fewer than 119 points. Carpenter and Kanaan are not entered this weekend. 

Fast Facts

This will be the sixth IndyCar race on August 8 and first since Dario Franchitti won at Mid-Ohio in 2010.

One of the previous August 8 winners was a first-time winner. That was Alex Tagliani at Road America in 2004. 

Two of the previous August 8 winners went on to win the championship that year. One was Nigel Mansell at Loudon in 1993. The other was the aforementioned Franchitti in 2010. 

August 8 is also Nigel Mansell's birthday. Mansell turns 68 years old this year. 

In the 14 street course races during the universal aero kit, the average starting position for a race winner is 5.785 with a median of second. Eight of those races have been won from the front row, four from pole position and four from second. The six other races were all won from outside the top five. Three of those races have been won from outside the top ten, including the last two street course races.

The average number of lead changes in the last 14 street course races is 5.928 with a median of six. 

Only four of the last 14 street course races have had fewer than five lead changes. Five races have had exactly six led changes. The most lead changes is 11 in the 2018 St. Petersburg race. 

The average number of cautions in the last 14 street course races is 3.285 with a median of three. The average number of caution laps is 12.571 with a median of 11. 

There have been six different winners in the last six street course races. 

Patricio O'Ward became the first street course winner not from Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing or Andretti Autosport since Sébastien Bourdais won at St. Petersburg in 2018 with Dale Coyne Racing. 

Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport have all each won four street course races since the introduction of the universal aero kit. 

Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon have each won three of the last 14 street course races. 

Josef Newgarden could become the first driver to win four consecutive pole positions since Will Power in the first four races of the 2011 season at St. Petersburg, Barber, Long Beach and São Paulo.

There have been eight winners from ten races this season. The most since 2017, which had eight winners from ten races. The last three seasons had six winners in the first ten races. 

Through ten races, 13 drivers have stood on a podium, 18 drivers have a top five finish, 25 drivers have a top ten finish and 25 drivers have led a lap. Forty drivers have started an IndyCar race this season.

 

Since reunification, the most point scorers in a season are 46 in the 2011 season. The 2008 season had 47 drivers compete in a race, but eight of those drivers only competed in the Long Beach race, which were run with Champ Car regulations and the Panoz DP01 chassis, and were not awarded points toward the championship.

Possible Milestones:

Scott Dixon is one victory away from tying Mario Andretti for second all-time with 52 victories.

Scott Dixon is one podium finish away from his 125th podium finish.

Will Power is one victory away from the 40-victory milestone.

Josef Newgarden is one victory away from the 20-victory milestone and Newgarden would be the 22nd driver to reach 20 IndyCar victories. 

Josef Newgarden is one podium finish away from his 40th podium finish.

Alexander Rossi is one podium finish away from his 25th podium finish. 

Sébastien Bourdais needs to lead 38 laps to reach the 2,700 laps led milestone.

Ryan Hunter-Reay needs to lead 47 laps to reach the 1,600 laps led milestone.

James Hinchcliffe needs to lead 19 laps to reach the 800 laps led milestone.

Graham Rahal needs to lead 46 laps to reach the 500 laps led milestone.

Colton Herta needs to lead 31 laps to reach the 400 laps led milestone.

Predictions

We get the storybook result and Josef Newgarden gets his second consecutive victory, this one in his backyard. Alexander Rossi gets his best finish of the season for a second consecutive race. Only one Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing driver will finish in the top ten. At least three drivers who have not had a top ten finish in the last four races get a top ten result. Hélio Castroneves will not be the top Meyer Shank Racing finisher. Romain Grosjean will be within 30 points of Scott McLaughlin after this race. There will be at least four cautions, one of which will come on the opening lap. There will not be any delayed practice sessions or qualifying due to track issues. The divers in the Cumberland River will not be necessary. Someone will be mad that the IndyCar race is following the NASCAR race and it will be close getting to the IndyCar race in time for the green flag. There will be at least 180 total passes and at least 120 passes for position. Sleeper: Ryan Hunter-Reay.